1

Local Development Framework – Core Strategy

Preferred Options Discussion Paper January 2013

Topic Paper 3 – The Economy and Employment Land

1.0 Introduction 1.1 The purpose of this topic paper is to provide analysis and summary of the evidence relating

to the economy and employment land for Tameside’s Core Strategy and Development Management Policies Development Plan Document (DPD). It forms a supplementary paper to Tameside’s Preferred Options Report and identifies current issues and challenges that will influence the future direction of planning policy on the Borough.

1.2 The paper draws on a range of information sources including economic baseline

documents, the Tameside Economic Strategy, the CB Richard Ellis Employment Land Study (2010) and the emerging Tameside Employment Land Review in order to establish the Council’s approach towards policy in the Local Plan.

1.3 Further work that will inform policy development includes a strategic review of employment

sites; this will form part of the final Employment Land Review. 1.4 The paper itself is split into five sections:

1. Policy Context – An outline of relevant policy at a national, city-region and local level which sets out the overall planning policy framework;

2. Spatial Economic Context – Tameside in the Manchester City-Region; 3. Local Economic Profile – Baseline information on the economy and the employment

land supply setting out the economic context for the Borough in addition to describing the local economic profile;

4. Employment Land – The supply and demand for employment land is a critical part of developing the economy of Tameside. This section looks at existing supply and potential issues surrounding the declining supply of employment sites in the Borough; and

5. Identification of the key issues, challenges and potential options for the future shaping of the Core Strategy.

2.0 Policy Context

National Policy

Securing the Future – the UK Sustainable Development Strategy 2.1 The UK Sustainable Development Strategy (2005) identifies five guiding principles for

sustainable development, including the achievement of a sustainable economy. Planning is identified as central to delivering sustainable development with a strong emphasis on community engagement. The National Planning Policy Framework specifically refers to Securing the Future as a further explanation of what defines sustainable development.

2

National Planning Policy Framework (March 2012) 2.2 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) reduced national planning policy

statements and guidance down to a streamlined document of approximately 60 pages. The key thrust of the NPPF is to achieve sustainable development.

2.3 The NPPF sets out how the planning system will deliver sustainable development by

performing three roles: economic, social and environmental. The key to the Framework is pursuing these three components in an integrated way in order to deliver multiple goals.

2.3 A core principle of the Framework is the production of local plans which set out a long-term

vision for an area. For Tameside this means replacing the Unitary Development Plan with an up-to-date Core Strategy containing flexible policies that don’t act as a barrier to growth.

2.4 Ten core land-use planning principles underpin plan making and decision taking. In

summary these are:

1. A genuinely plan-led approach; 2. Taking a creative approach to enhancing and improving places; 3. Driving and supporting sustainable economic development; 4. Secure high quality design and good amenity standards; 5. Recognise the character and different roles that distinct areas play, promote urban

vitality, protect Green Belts; 6. Support the transition to a low carbon future in a changing climate; 7. Conserving and enhancing the natural environment and reducing pollution; 8. Prioritise re-use of brownfield land; 9. Promoting mixed-use developments, encouraging multiple benefits from land whilst

recognising the various roles open land can play; 10. Managing patterns of growth in a sustainable way; and 11. Supporting improvements to health, social and cultural wellbeing.

2.5 The NPPF looks at plan making in some detail in paragraphs 150 to 185. The NPPF states

that Local plans should be consistent with its objectives, principles and policies, including the presumption in favour of sustainable development. The strategic priorities that should be delivered in the Tameside area are as follows:

• Housing and economic development requirements; • The provision of retail, leisure and other commercial development; • The provision of infrastructure for transport, minerals, waste, energy, telecoms, water

supply and water quality; • The provision of health, security, community and cultural infrastructure and other local

facilities; and • Climate change mitigation and adaptation, protection and enhancement of the natural

and historic environment, including landscape, and where relevant coastal management.

2.6 There are a number of additional considerations that emerge from the NPPF and the

Localism Act 20111

1 The Localism Act 2011 – Gained Royal Assent 15 November 2011 and includes key measure relating to planning.

: the requirement for a relevant and proportionate evidence base; ensuring deliverability of development proposed through the local plan; supporting and

3

incentivising new development through the Community Infrastructure Levy2

; and introducing a duty to cooperate on planning issues that cross administrative boundaries.

2.7 Overall the key messages from the NPPF are:

• The planning system is underpinned by the principle of sustainable development and that this is defined in UN Resolution 42/1873

• That distinctive local and neighbourhood plans should be produced which reflect the needs and priorities of their communities;

and the UK Sustainable Development Strategy;

• The presumption in favour of sustainable development is ‘the golden thread running through both plan-making and decision taking4

• That planning decisions should be made in accordance with the development plan without delay; and

’;

• Where the plan is ‘absent, silent or relevant policies are out of date’ that permission is granted unless e.g. it should be granted permission unless the impact, for example, on an important habitat, historic area or green belt is of such significance that it is deemed to be unacceptable.

Regional Context and Policy

North West Regional Economic Strategy 2.8 The most recent version of the strategy was published in 2006 as part of the North West

Regional Development Agency’s 20 year rolling strategy to shape the future economic direction of the North West. Sustainable development is the central concept of the Regional Economic Strategy.

2.9 The strategy sets out an economic vision for the Region:

“A dynamic, sustainable international economy, which competes on the basis of knowledge, advanced technology and an excellent quality of life for all where: • Productivity and enterprise levels are high, driven by innovation, leadership excellence

and high skills; and carbon emissions are low; • Manchester and Liverpool are vibrant European Cities, and, with Preston, key drivers of

city regional growth; • Growth opportunities around Crewe, Chester, Warrington, Lancaster and Carlisle are

fully developed; • Key growth assets are fully utilised, (priority sectors, the high education and science

base, port/airports, strategic regional sites, the natural environment especially the Lake District, and the rural economy);

• The economies of East Lancashire, Blackpool, Barrow and West Cumbria are regenerated; and

• Employment rates are high and concentrations of low employment are eliminated.”

2 Community Infrastructure Levy - Allows local authorities to choose to charge a levy on new development in their area in order to raise funds to meet the associated demands placed on the area and to enable growth. 3 UN Resolution 42/187 of the United Nations General Assembly defined sustainable development as meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. 4 Paragraph 14, Page 4, National Planning Policy Framework, March 2012.

4

Manchester Independent Economic Review 2.10 The Manchester Independent Economic Review (MIER) was published as a series of

documents in 2009. This provided a radical new look at the Greater Manchester economy to generate debate on the economic future of the Manchester City Region.

2.11 In essence the MIER attempted to determine why the Greater Manchester economy

‘punched below its weight’, especially when compared to the dominant economies of London and the South East.

2.12 The following summarises the key findings identified by the MIER and highlights the

potential for much greater economic success across the city region:

• There is potential for improving productivity and increasing growth; • Manchester firms have significantly higher productivity than other areas of the North; • Manchester is punching below its weight; • Agglomeration economies exist arising from a large, diverse urban region (clustering

shows no benefits but the large and diverse attributes of an urban environment generates the economic benefits of agglomeration);

• Productivity differences that are largely explained by the extent of agglomeration economies, skills and access to transport;

• The importance of skills – Manchester does well in comparison to the North but not compared to the Southeast;

• Inadequate internal transport networks – improvements would bring the largest economic payoff;

• Housing is a significant cost of increasing agglomeration – put simply there are not enough houses in the places people want to live;

• No rationale for redistributing economic activity from the south to the north; • There are increasingly polarised neighbourhood outcomes; and • Deprivation arises at the individual level, not neighbourhoods. This is linked to the

determination of life chances at the pre-school and primary schools stage 2.13 Building on the key findings the report also identified five main areas in need of attention in

order to make the economy more successful:

• Skills – must be improved and is the single most important influence on increasing productivity and competitiveness;

• Housing – two key issues – improving the housing offer to attract skilled labour and tackling housing issues in deprived areas;

• Transport – crucial element – most focus required on improving transport within the travel-to-work areas of the city-region;

• Planning – Identified as potential hindrance to the expansion of high value business; • Governance – good governance is needed with a strong sense of collaboration in order

to take difficult decisions. 2.14 The focus of the recommendations emerging from the MIER was that the productivity

needs boosting in order to ensure growth but that all of the city region and its people would enjoy improved opportunities as a result of Greater Manchester having a stronger economy.

5

Prosperity For All: The Greater Manchester Strategy 2.15 The Greater Manchester Strategy (GMS) was written as a direct response to the MIER and

published in August 2009. The document sets out a vision for the Manchester City Region to be achieved by 2020. The GMS recognises that the city-region has the appropriate scale and density to achieve growth by tackling the main reason for its underperformance – low productivity.

2.16 The GMS clearly recognises the scale of the challenge but also the opportunities. Structural

changes to the global economy mean that the city-region has to develop the opportunities that are emerging in the likes of Brazil, India and China. The GMS proposes an approach that will ‘create a virtuous circle of long-term sustainable growth’, but that this growth must be based on the principles of sustainable development and social equality. Furthermore, it is crucial that reductions in carbon emissions are achieved, critical infrastructure is in place and that poor health and a lack of skills are addressed.

2.17 The GMS is based around a series of eleven priorities aimed at delivering sustainable

development, improved quality of life and prosperity for all:

• Early Years • Better Life Chances • The Highly Skilled • Attracting Talent • Transport • Economic Base • International Connectivity • A Low Carbon Economy • The Housing Market • Effective Governance • Sense of Place

2.18 In summary this means a whole range of strategic objectives including: improving the

provision of early years intervention, tackling health and skills inequalities, increasing the number of highly skilled in the city-region, improving transport connectivity, diversifying the economic base and ensuring there is a high quality housing offer.

2.19 The GMS is currently under revision (The ‘Refreshed GMS’) and there are numerous

proposed changes to the existing document. Essentially the proposed document takes into account developments such as the availability of more data and details around the impact of the recession on Greater Manchester and the evolving impact of public sector reforms.

2.20 The proposals in the Refreshed GMS build on the eleven priorities in Prosperity For All

(2009). However, some additional elements are identified to deliver the transformation of the Greater Manchester economy so that it delivers economic growth and social justice.

2.21 The Refreshed GMS is particularly relevant to the Tameside Local Plan because it aims to

establish the conditions for growth and this can only be achieved through strategic planning. The key areas that are important to developing the Tameside Local Plan are:

• Creating a blueprint for town centres; • Reviewing land supply that will support growth in locations that are attractive to the

market;

6

• Creating places that people want to live in so that talent is attracted and retained – key to this is stimulating the housing market and delivering high quality residential offer; and

• Assess, review and masterplan the critical infrastructure needed to support growth.

Greater Manchester Growth Plan 2.22 The Greater Manchester Growth Plan builds on the MIER and sets out some

recommendations that could help to accelerate economic growth in the city-region. The document briefly looks at achievements since the MIER and builds on the policy direction of the Greater Manchester Strategy. The most significant recommendation emerging from the Growth Plan is that Manchester should gain additional powers similar to those already exercised in London. This would allow the identified barriers to growth to be overcome.

2.23 Analysis carried out for the Growth Plan concludes that Manchester has been performing

well against the difficult economic circumstances experienced nationally. Major commercial development, such as MediaCity UK, has been delivered and new investment continues. The report goes further to suggest that even more economic growth could be achieved and that this will significantly contribute to UK economic growth.

2.24 The Growth Plan urges bold commitments to be made around what it call the ‘four pillars’,

that is to say business innovation and science; infrastructure and housing; skills; and the effective use of public money. For each of the four pillars recommendations are set out that could lead to the enhanced productivity and economic growth that the MIER claimed was possible for a city region like Greater Manchester. These recommendations would lead to Manchester delivering the growth that would enable it to move into the ‘world elite of cities, but that this would require radical changes from Government in devolving more powers and public finances to bring the governance structure up to a par with London.

2.25 Without going into the detail of all the recommendations the following have been selected

as most relevant to the Local Plan:

• Recommendation 5 – implement the MIER’s recommendation for a unified planning regime. In addition make better use of funding mechanisms such as the Community Infrastructure Levy; and

• Recommendation 6 – Review how Greenbelt and Greenfield land is treated in high density areas of population where economic growth is a priority.

2.26 The other recommendations in the Growth Plan, whilst not specifically relating to planning are cross cutting in that they can influence development and create certainty in developing the supporting premises, infrastructure and environment that underpin creating a place that attracts inward investment.

Greater Manchester Employment Land Position Statement, NLP, August 2009 2.27 In August 2009, Nathanial Lichfield and Partners (NLP) completed a Position Statement on

behalf of the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities that primarily examined the sub-regional employment land requirements set out in the Regional Spatial Strategy Policy W3. In doing so, NLP examined the derivation of the requirement, assessed current economic trends, such as increases in both development and job densities and analysed the economic aspirations of the GM districts.

2.28 The Position Statement recommends the provision of an amount of employment land at the

district level up to 2026. For Tameside the suggested figure is within the range of 94-130

7

hectares and was derived from the existing potential supply and the lower end of the Regional Spatial Strategy identified need.

8

3.0 Tameside’s Spatial Economic Context 3.1 Tameside is one of the ten districts that make up the Association of Greater Manchester

Authorities (AGMA). AGMA is the voice of the city region and has been a success in collaborative working between authorities since 1986. A further success in demonstrating the collaborative approach was the establishment of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority 1st April 2011.

3.2 Tameside is an important part of the Manchester City Region, the strongest economic

centre outside of London and the South East. 3.3 The City Region suffers from significant disparities because of spatial variations in

economic performance and social deprivation. A division exists between the economically more successful southern areas of the city region compared to their northern neighbours.

3.4 Situated to the east of the city region Tameside (see Figure 3.1) is challenged by the need

to address areas of social and economic deprivation. Part of this problem is rooted in a dependence on declining traditional industries and their legacy coupled with an overreliance on the public sector. This places a great demand on the available resources in order to progress economic transformation, the regeneration of communities and tackling environmental degradation.

Figure 3.1 – Tameside in the Manchester City Region

3.5 Since 2009 the AGMA Executive Board has established six commissions. These are

currently:

9

• The GM Low Carbon Hub (formerly the Environment Commission) • Improvement and Efficiency Commission • GM Health and Wellbeing Board (formerly the Health Commission) • Planning and Housing Commission • Transport for Greater Manchester Committee • Manchester Family / Centres of Excellence

Tameside’s Economic Links 3.6 The borough’s future is linked to that of Greater Manchester, which is identified by the

MIER as the largest economic hub outside London and the South East. 3.7 As previously highlighted, the MIER and the GM Growth Plan bring a fresh perspective to

the debate around the future of the City Region’s economy. The MIER states that the City Region has significant potential for enhancing economic performance, not just in the North West, but across the north of England as a whole. In short, Manchester City Region represents the greatest opportunity for closing the productivity gap between the north and south of England.

3.8 The MIER sets out challenging recommendations that include improving early years

development, improving skills, transport, housing, planning and governance. These recommendations have been drawn upon in establishing the GMS and the current refresh.

3.9 Tameside can support the objectives of the GMS by playing a key role in the economic

success of the Manchester City Region. This can be achieved through increasing the quality and choice of housing available; planning and investing in new infrastructure; tackling deprivation; promoting sustainable development and the transition to a low carbon economy; and improving early years support and educational attainment.

Baseline Economic Information 3.10 In addition to the Greater Manchester Local Economic Assessment the Council has

completed a detailed economic assessment of the current position of the Borough in 2011. This report was the first step towards producing an economic strategy for Tameside and it establishes key economic issues and highlights those with a strong positive or negative impact on the local economy.

3.11 The baseline report brings together a large amount of information in one place. The report

uses the structure suggested by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) for the preparation of Local Economic Assessments and this is accompanied by an economic examination at the District Assembly Area (DAA) level.

3.12 The following section overviews the economic baseline as set out in the Borough’s

Economic Strategy ‘Enterprising Tameside’.

Tameside’s Economy 3.13 According to the 2012 Greater Manchester Forecasting Model, produced by Oxford

Economics, Tameside suffered worse than Greater Manchester during the recession and is experiencing a much slower recovery (Figure 2). Forecasts of the economic recovery in Tameside predict that we will continue to have poor recovery compared to GM unless we make a step-change in our approach to the local and wider GM economy.

10

Figure 2: Recession and recovery in Tameside and GM

3.14 Employment data from the 2012 GMFM estimate that there are currently 75,900 jobs in Tameside. If things remain as they are, with no action taken by the Council and its partners, the GMFM predicts that employment in Tameside will grow by just 1.9 percentage points over the next twenty years to 77,400 jobs. This is because Tameside jobs are not in the sectors expected by Oxford Economics to grow in future.

3.15 In contrast to Tameside, employment across GM is forecast to grow by 9.9 percentage

points over the next twenty years. The sectors where highest growth is predicted by Oxford Economics are Real estate activities; Professional, Scientific & Technical activities; Administrative & Support Service activities; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

3.16 Government data for 20115 estimated that there were around 219,700 people living in

Tameside. Of these around 142,500 were of working age (aged 16-64)6. Of these, 105,2007

were employed, or actively looking for work (economically active). This is 73.5% of the working age population, and comparable with the figure for North West (75.3%). 95,000 people in Tameside were estimated to be in employment, equivalent to 66.2% of the working age population. This was lower than the equivalent figure of 68.5% for the North West and Great Britain (70.3%).

3.17 In February 2012 there were 27,960 people in Tameside claiming out of work benefits, made up of 7,240 claiming Job Seekers Allowance, 13,200 claiming Incapacity Benefit / Employment Support Allowance, 2,630 lone parents and 760 claiming other income related benefits. The total figure is equivalent to 17% of the local working age population, compared with 15.3% for the North West.

5 Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Population Estimate (Census Revised), 2011 6 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2011 7 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

90

95

100

105

110

115

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

BENC

HMAR

KED

EMPL

OYM

ENT

(200

0 =

100)

TAMESIDE GREATER MANCHESTER

RECESSION

11

Figure 3: Employment in Tameside and Greater Manchester (Source: ONS 2012)

3.18 More up to date information is available for the number of Job Seekers Allowance claimants. The total at December 2012 was 6,910 or 4.8% of the working age population8

.

3.19 In November 2012 there were 1,063 job vacancies advertised in Tameside. This is the highest figure recorded for job vacancies in November since 2007. The following gives a breakdown by occupation:

Figure 4.

3.20 In November 2012 the highest number of vacancies recorded were in Sales and Customer Service occupations (270 vacancies), followed by Elementary occupations (234 vacancies). Over half of Tameside vacancies advertised with JCP were in low-skilled (and therefore lower-paid) occupations.

8 Source: ONS Claimant Count, December 2012

73.9

66.4

16.0

73.5

66.2

17.0

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0

Employed or looking for work

Employed

Claiming out of work benefits

%

Tameside

Greater Manchester

45 50

100

32

81

134

270

117

234

Tameside Vacancies by Type of Occupation (Nov 2012)

Managers and Senior Officials

Professional

Associate Professional and Technical

Administrative and Secretarial

Skilled Trades

Personal Service

Sales and Customer Service

Process, Plant and Machine

ElementarySource: Office for National Statistics

12

Figure 5.

3.21 In terms of industrial sector, nearly half of Tameside vacancies were in Banking, finance

and insurance (523 vacancies), followed by Construction (186 vacancies), Public administration, education and health (137 vacancies, and Distribution, hotels and restaurants (118 vacancies).

Resident wages and skills 3.22 Employment rates in Tameside are similar to those for Greater Manchester but our

residents and workers earn less than others in Greater Manchester and this has been a long-standing problem. In 2012, full-time workers in Tameside earned an average (median) of £430.50 per week before tax, which was the lowest rate across Greater Manchester (Greater Manchester median £470.10) and well below the North West average (median) of £472.50 per week9

. As a result, deprivation and poverty continue to challenge the wellbeing of our residents and economy and around one in four children in Tameside are thought to be living in poverty.

3.23 The reason for our lower earnings is our lack of high level skills. 21% of the working age population in Tameside were qualified to NVQ Level 4 in 2011, compared with 29.9% across Greater Manchester. 40.7% were qualified to NVQ Level 3 or above, compared with 50.6% in Greater Manchester10

.

9 Source: ONS annual survey of hours and earnings – resident analysis 2012 10 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 2011

2 4 27

186

118

21523

13745

Tameside Vacancies by Industry (Nov 2012)

Agriculture and fishing

Energy and water

Manufacturing

Construction

Distribution, hotels and restaurants

Transport and communications

Banking, finance and insurance, etc

Public administration,education & health

Other servicesSource: Office for National Statistics

13

Figure 6: Skills levels in Tameside and Greater Manchester (Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, 2011)

3.24 The future economy, both nationally and in Greater Manchester, will rely increasingly on jobs that need a high level of professional knowledge, or technical skill, rather than manual labour. It is imperative that Tameside residents have the right levels of skill to compete for jobs in this economy. We also need to develop higher level skills in order to attract new employers to the borough and enable existing companies to innovate and grow.

Resident jobs 3.25 Tameside’s lower skills levels shape the job prospects of our residents: 40.6% of Greater

Manchester residents work as managers, professionals or in technical roles, compared with 32.5% of residents in Tameside. By comparison, Tameside residents are more likely to work as plant and machine operatives (20.2% compared with 18.5%) or as administrators, secretaries and skilled trades people (25.2% compared with 21.3%).

Key Employment Sectors 3.26 Tameside has historically been a manufacturing economy, and today employment in the

manufacturing sector still accounts for nearly one-fifth of jobs (18.5%). But manufacturing employment has been declining over the last decade, and with the use of new technology in the workplace, job losses look set to continue.

3.27 Following on from manufacturing the key employment areas are Health (14.0%), Retail

(12.0%), Education (9.3%) and Wholesale (6.9%). When compared to the GM average there are significant differences in employment across Tameside:

• Manufacturing – 18.5% Tameside / 9.5% GM • Business Administration & Support Services – 4.4% Tameside / 8.9% GM • Professional, Scientific & Technical Services – 3.8% Tameside / 8.1% GM • Financial & Insurance – 1.4% Tameside / 4.2% GM

21.0

40.7

60.3

76.6

9.3

14.1

29.9

50.6

67.9

81.3

6.5

12.2

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

% with NVQ4+

% with NVQ3+

% with NVQ2+

% with NVQ1+

% with other qualifications

% with no qualifications

Qualifications - Residents aged 16-64

GM % Tameside %

Source: Annual Population Survey 2011

14

Figure 7: Employment in Tameside and Greater Manchester

Business Stocks 3.28 The Office for National Statistics (ONS) records numbers of businesses via VAT and PAYE

records, plus registrations with Companies House. The measure excludes sole traders, companies without employees, and companies with a low turnover, but nevertheless accounts for 99% of all business activity.

3.29 In 2011 ONS recorded that Tameside had 6,025 active business enterprises (equivalent to

6.8% of all active business enterprises in GM). This placed us in 8th position in terms of active business stocks across GM (where 10th = worst). The number of VAT-registered businesses in Tameside reduced by 2.3 percentage points between 2009 and 2011, putting us in 7th position across GM.

3.30 Tameside has fewer businesses located within its borders than would be expected, given

the size of its working age population. In terms of active business enterprises per head of working age population, Tameside ranks 9th in GM (0.042 enterprises per working age resident, compared with a GM average of 0.050 enterprises per working age resident and an England average of 0.059).

0.1

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.8

3.8

4.1

4.4

4.6

5.6

6.2

6.9

9.3

12.0

14.0

18.5

0.0

4.2

1.8

3.2

1.1

1.4

4.7

8.1

4.0

8.9

6.3

4.9

4.8

4.8

9.1

10.0

13.1

9.5

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Financial & insurance

Property

Information & communication

Mining, quarrying & utilities

Motor trades

Transport & storage (inc postal)

Professional, scientific & technical

Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services

Business administration & support services

Accommodation & food services

Construction

Public administration & defence

Wholesale

Education

Retail

Health

Manufacturing

%

Employment in Tameside 2011

GM %

Tameside %

Source: ONS Business Register & Employment Survey

Business Stocks

2009 2010 2011 Change 2009 to 2011

Manchester 15,715 15,910 16,140 2.7% points

15

Table 1: Number of businesses in Tameside and the other GM authorities

Business Starts and Deaths 3.31 According to ONS data, there were 670 new businesses registered for VAT, with PAYE or

Companies House in Tameside during 2011. This equates to 6.3% of all new businesses for the year across GM, putting Tameside 9th for the number of new businesses registered (where 10th = worst). Tameside has consistently ranked in the worst three authorities across GM for new business starts recorded by ONS since 2004. In contrast, Tameside ranked 4th in GM in 2010 for the proportion of new business starts to survive beyond their first anniversary (87.1%).

3.32 ONS data has limited use as an indicator of entrepreneurship in Tameside. Data from the

GM Business Startup programme, delivered in partnership with the Tameside Business Family, indicates that Tameside is effective at producing new businesses: 315 new businesses were set up between 2009 and 2011 under this programme. In its first year of operation the Tameside Centre for Enterprise supported 17 new business starts and another nine were close to launching.

Figure 8: Business Demography

580620

670

775

695630

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2009 2010 2011

Business Births and Deaths in Tameside

Business births

Business deaths

Source: ONS Business Demography 2009-11

Salford 7,255 7,330 7,370 1.6% points Stockport 11,755 11,670 11,625 -1.1% points Oldham 6,485 6,435 6,390 -1.5% points Bury 6,680 6,725 6,570 -1.6% points Trafford 10,345 10,275 10,140 -2.0% points Tameside 6,165 6,165 6,025 -2.3% points Wigan 8,575 8,450 8,340 -2.7% points Rochdale 6,185 6,030 5,945 -3.9% points Bolton 9,300 9,020 8,890 -4.4% points

16

3.33 In 2011 ONS records indicate that 630 Tameside businesses de-registered during the year

(i.e. ceased trading, or ceased trading at a level where they were included in ONS data), which is 40 fewer than the number of new registrations. This reversed the trend of the previous two years, when business deaths outnumbered business starts. The 2011 pattern for business starts to outnumber business deaths is also seen across GM.

Tameside as a Business Location 3.34 As a business location, Tameside has an advantage in terms of its strong and developing

transport links to the rest of Greater Manchester, the city centre, the airport, the national motorway and rail networks, and to Merseyside, Leeds and South Yorkshire. The Metrolink extension to Droylsden will open in 2013 and the route to Ashton in 2013/14.

3.35 In 2008 Tameside had 2,626,000 square metres of commercial space. Its use reflected

current employment trends within the borough: 55% of our commercial premises were factory space, which is the highest proportion in Greater Manchester, although Wigan and Oldham both had more factory space than Tameside in terms of area in 2008. Warehousing in Tameside increased to 21% of commercial space in 2008, but this was still the lowest proportion in Greater Manchester. Just 7% of our commercial premises were offices (180 square meters), which was the second lowest in Greater Manchester.

3.36 In 2009 the mean house price in Tameside was £124,629, which was less than the average

house price in the North West region (£154,436). Since 2005 there has been an increase in Tameside’s average house price of 8% which is less than the increase in the North West (12%). The number of property sales in 2009 was 1,978 which was a decrease of 42% since 2005. The decline for Tameside was less than that seen across the North West (49%) but greater than that for England (40%).

3.37 Levels of productivity in Tameside are relatively low: GVA (Gross Value Added) figures

illustrate that Tameside’s employees do not create as much wealth as others in Greater Manchester. Tameside’s GVA is the third lowest in Greater Manchester.

3.38 Potential employment sites in Tameside are generally smaller than other offers available across Greater Manchester, and because of its manufacturing tradition, some sites need remediation before they are ready for redevelopment. Nevertheless, Tameside currently has around 71 hectares of land available to be developed for employment sites, 28 hectares of which is classed as immediately available. For housing there are approximately 120 hectares of land, which includes sites under construction, awaiting planning permission and other allocations.

Strengths and Weaknesses 3.39 The economic baseline report carried out a traditional SWOT analysis, the following is a

brief summary of some of the findings:

Strengths • Proximity to Manchester and linkages to the economy • Transport linkages • Resilient economy • Relatively strong manufacturing sector • An ‘affordable’ Borough especially in relation to housing

Weaknesses

17

• Poor skill levels of resident population • Low grade labour market occupation • Residents wages lowest in GM • Small economy relative to resident population • Reliance on public sector employment

Opportunities • Less quickly ageing population relative to England • Good skills in remaining manufacturing sector • Economic growth of Manchester provides an opportunity • Cost competitiveness • Energy related engineering sector growth requirements match some existing

sector strengths • Ashton is the centre for the area

Threats • Continued decline in manufacturing • Further reduction in job opportunities due to contraction of the public sector

and manufacturing employment • Risk of low skills base in an economy driven by KBIs • Negative impact of quality of built environment • Increased impact of deprived communities in a time of contracting Council

budgets 3.40 In addition the Local Economic Assessment carried out by the Commission for the New

Economy emphasised a number of key challenges and opportunities faced by the Tameside economy:

• Tameside’s key challenge is its relatively low skills base with low attainment levels at

GCSE reinforcing low skills within the adult population; • A reliance on public sector job growth and declining employment in the private sector

leaves the Tameside economy particularly vulnerable to cuts in public funding and not in a good position for the private sector to make up for this decline;

• Forecasts indicate that Tameside will experience further decreases in private sector employment and will see a much slower recovery than the Greater Manchester average;

• Low skill levels of the resident population are mirrored in the low average salaries of Tameside residents;

• Housing choice is limited with the market itself dominated by a mixture of terraced and semi-detached properties. This is seen as a barrier to attracting and retaining significant numbers of skilled residents;

• There are opportunities for growth around Ashton Moss and in addition Ashton town centre and the office market are opportunities that could drive growth with the appropriate investment and development;

• Good transport connectivity is a significant asset and set to improve further with the expansion of Metrolink; and

• The location on the edge of the Peak District is a significant asset in terms of quality of environment and offering an attractive residential location.

3.41 The key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, identified in the above table and

in the points from the Local Economic Assessment need consideration as Tameside progresses with developing its Core Strategy. These key attributes of the Borough have been used extensively to help shape the new economic vision for Tameside.

18

4.0 Employment Land

4.1 The adopted Regional Spatial Strategy did not set out a district level for how much employment land would be required over the plan period (up to 2021). Policy W3 set out the overall requirement for additional land in Greater Manchester over the period 2005 to 2021. The extra allocation of employment land required for Greater Manchester by the Regional Spatial Strategy was set at 536 hectares increasing up to a higher level of 917 hectares if a 20% flexibility factor was incorporated to cater for ‘exceptional circumstances’ such as the expansion requirements of a particular business.

4.2 A study into the distribution of employment land around Greater Manchester was carried

out in 2009 by Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (NLP) and is covered in paragraphs 2.29 – 2.30. This helped to form an overall picture of employment land availability and requirements over the RSS plan period for Greater Manchester.

4.3 The conclusion for Tameside was that 94 to 134 hectares of employment land would be

required 2005-2021. The NLP study also recognised a number of key issues:

• The continuing challenges for the economy and employment in the Borough from the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model;

• The limited supply of employment land available due to various constraints; • The need for good quality modern employment accommodation; • The pressure on existing and former employment sites for non-employment

redevelopment (Christy Towels, Findel Education, Toray Textiles, Roberstons Jam, Burmah Castrol); and

• A weak office sector. 4.4 A basic analysis using the figures contained in the NLP study and the latest employment

land supply (31st March 2012) would indicate a shortfall of between 13.3 and 53.3 hectares. However, as the Annual Monitoring Report points out – “the inclusion of land in the available supply figure does not indicate any intentions of the owner(s) to offer the site for development and therefore some of the sites will not be available on the open market and others will be intended for development by owners and occupiers for their own use”.

4.5 A market and sector assessment was carried out by CB Richard Ellis in 2009. This

highlighted a number of further issues including the problem with availability of sites for development:

• The need to potentially re-weight the traditional employment base away from

manufacturing industries; • Adoption of new employment strategies to develop better quality accommodation to

attract inward investment and employment into Tameside; • The need to grow business size in the Borough as the current focus is on employers of

10 or less; • The need to provide the right size and type of employment premises for smaller

employers as they expand to avoid their moving to neighbouring locations; and • The amount of land that is immediately available will always be below the level defined

in the employment land supply and this significantly reduces the ability of the Borough to accommodate economic growth.

19

4.6 Emerging detail from the draft Tameside Employment Land Review sets out a picture of the future requirements for employment land over the Core Strategy plan period through analysis of the following:

• Historic Trends Analysis of past take up rates; • DCLG/VOA Commercial and Industrial Floorspace and Rateable Value Statistics; and • Interpretation of the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM).

4.7 Although it is generally acknowledged that there should not be an over-reliance on the

outcomes of this type of forecasting they will give a useful indication of the future requirement for employment land in the Tameside.

4.8 Following on from this, a detailed review of existing employment sites in the borough will be

conducted. The aim of this part of the review will be a spatial analysis to compare the available stock with the particular requirements of the area. In addition, the appraisal will also include an assessment of a number of Development Opportunity Area sites allocated by the Council in the Unitary Development Plan and sites identified through a ‘Site Suggestion’ consultation exercise. Figure 5.1 summarises the process for determining the employment land requirement for the Tameside during the plan period 2013 -2028.

Figure 9: The Tameside Employment Land Review Process Overview

20

Historic Trends Analysis of past take up rates 4.9 The use of historic take-up rates provides a basic methodology which can be used to

project demand over the Local Plan period 2014-2029. Data is available for Tameside on employment land monitoring over an extensive period from 1987/1988 through to 2011/2012 and is shown in table 2. It is evident from this data that there is great variation in the take-up rate of employment land. The peak year was 2002/2003 when 23.34 hectares of land was developed, this is in sharp contrast to the early 1990s and the current situation when annual development levels were low.

4.10 Using 1987/1988 as a baseline then it is apparent that annual average take-up rates were

rising until the early 2000s. The five year average from 1987/88 to 1991/92 was 6.28 hectares. This peaked in 2002/03 due to the high level of completions in 2002/03 and since that time has reduced after a period of strong development up until 2009/10. The five year average at 2011/12 is at the lowest level since records were collected for the borough and this reflects the depressed state of the sector through the recession. However, it is important to look at the longer term averages which tend to flatten out any peaks or troughs experienced. Whereas the 5 year rolling average fluctuates from 3.56 ha – 11.35 ha the 10 year average is shows a smaller degree of fluctuation 6.16 ha – 9.6 ha. Looking over a much longer term average the 20 year fluctuation is between 6.84 ha and 7.53 ha.

Year Take-Up

(Hectares) 5 Year Rolling Average

10 Year Rolling Average

20 Year Rolling Average

1987/1988 6.1 - - - 1988/1989 9.8 - - - 1989/1990 5.5 - - - 1990/1991 2.6 - - - 1991/1992 7.4 6.28 - - 1992/1993 4.2 5.9 - - 1993/1994 3.6 4.66 - - 1994/1995 5.5 4.66 - - 1995/1996 6.5 5.44 - - 1996/1997 10.2 6.0 - - 1997/1998 6.3 6.42 6.16 - 1998/1999 13.9 8.48 6.57 - 1999/2000 7.5 8.88 6.77 - 2000/2001 4.88 8.56 7.0 - 2001/2002 7.12 7.94 6.97 - 2002/2003 23.34 11.35 8.88 - 2003/2004 5.73 9.71 9.1 - 2004/2005 10.5 10.31 9.6 - 2005/2006 4.03 10.14 9.35 - 2006/2007 5.65 9.85 8.9 7.52 2007/2008 6.39 6.46 8.9 7.53 2008/2009 7.45 6.80 8.26 7.41 2009/2010 1.14 4.93 7.62 7.2 2010/2011 1.49 4.42 7.28 7.14 2011/2012 1.35 3.56 6.71 6.84

Table 2: Historic employment land take-up 1987-2012

21

4.11 Figure 10 below sets out the annual employment land take-up against the three calculated averages: 5, 10 and 20 years. From this it would appear that the 20 year average is most reflective of the norm for Tameside as it takes into account several economic cycles since the late 1980s.

Figure 10: Historic Take-Up Rates 1987 – 2012

4.12 By projecting forward the annual average figures over the plan period 2012-2029 it is possible to estimate the gross amount of employment land required. This gives a range of figures that are set out in table 3 below.

Average Take-Up of

Employment Land (Ha)

Gross Amount of Employment Land Required 2012-2029 (Ha)

Based on the average for the period 1991/92 – 2011/12 (20 years)

6.84 116.28

Based on the average for the period 2001/02 – 2011/12 (10 years)

6.71 114.07

Based on the average for the period 2006/07 – 2011/12 (5 years)

3.56 60.52

Average of three data sets 5.7 96.96

Table 3: Projected employment land requirements 2012 - 2027 based on historic take-up rates projected forward

4.13 These figures indicate that Tameside could have a gross requirement for employment land of as much as 116.28 hectares if the 20-year average is used. Alternatively, the requirement could be for a much lower figure of 60.52 hectares if the 5-year average is used.

22

Commercial and Industrial Floorspace Statistics 4.14 Another approach for looking at potential demand for employment land is to analyse the

data on non-domestic rateable floorspace (Department for Communities and Local Government and the Valuation Office Agency). This data is available from 1998 but there was a revaluation in 2005 and it is not possible to compare all the data available in the series. Therefore, the study only looks at the data available since 2005 since this was produced on a comparable basis.

4.15 The two key features from the DCLG/VOA floorspace data in Table 4 are that factory

floorspace in the Borough has seen a significant decline (9.1%) over the period 2005 - 2008 whilst warehouse floorspace has seen a major increase of 19.7%. The change in office floorspace is relatively small, a 2.9% increase, which reflects the evidence pointing to an immature sector. Overall floorspace change over this period was a decrease of 1.9%.

Year Offices Factories Warehouses Total 2005 210,000 1,590,000 482,775 2,282,775 2006 216,000 1,523,000 536,075 2,275,075 2007 214,800 1,458,000 574,000 2,246,800 2008 216,000 1,445,000 578,100 2,239,100 Percentage Change +2.9 -9.1 +19.7 -1.9

Table 4: DCLG/VOA Floorspace Statistics

4.16 There are some important issues that need raising in relation to the VOA data. The office, factory and warehouse classifications are not easily comparable to the 'B' Use Classes used in planning. For example, the VOA office class includes purpose built office buildings, offices over shops, light storage facilities and light industrial activities. In addition larger banks and post offices may be included rather than being allocated to the retail bulk class.

4.17 Furthermore within the office class there is a split into commercial and other offices. Even

at this level it is not possible to separate between the A and B office Use Classes. One example this is the fact that the commercial office category includes central government offices but not local government offices. Local government offices are included in the 'other offices' category which also comprises of surgeries, clinics and police stations. As is evident from this split B1 office types are not contained in one of these sub-categories.

4.18 As a result of this situation with the VOA data it has not been possible to simply allocate the

hereditament bulk classes to B Use Classes. However, the data does give a good picture of the general trend in the amount of floorspace available for commercial purposes.

4.19 Figure 11 shows a trend based projection using the 2005 - 2008 data.

23

Figure 11: Projected Trends in Employment Floorspace 2008 – 2029

4.20 From this projection the following changes in commercial floorspace can be determined over the period 2008-2029:

• Office floorspace is projected to increase by 14.6% (31,500 square metres); • Factory floorspace is projected to decrease by 52.7% (761,250 square metres); • Warehousing floorspace is projected to increase by 86.6% (500,451 square metres);

and • Overall floorspace is projected to decrease by 10.2% (229,278 square metres)

4.21 It is important to note that one problem with using the DCLG/VOA data is the short time

frame that the data represents has the potential to exaggerate the effect of one-off developments. However, if the trends are used with this caveat in mind then they do provide a useful tool for identifying and projecting trends in employment floorspace use.

Translating Floorspace Growth into Employment Land Projections 4.22 Using a standard plot ratio of 40% the VOA floorspace results were converted into

employment land projections. 4.23 The data in Table 6 has been adjusted because the Valuation Office Agency data differs

slightly from the data used in the Employment Land Review quantitative assessment. It has therefore been necessary to convert net internal to gross internal floorspace and gross internal to gross external floorspace using the ratios set out in Table 5.

VOA Measurement

Conventions Quantitative Measurement Conventions

Ratio

Office Net Internal Floorspace Gross Internal Floorspace 1:1.2 Factory Gross Internal Floorspace Gross Internal Floorspace 1:1 Warehouse Gross Internal Floorspace Gross External Floorspace 1:1.025

Table 5: Aligning the Measurement Conventions

24

4.24 The conversion methodology is taken from the North West Regional Assembly's Employment Land Study (2005) carried out by Arup. The NWRA report notes that these ratios are similar to those reported in the English Partnerships Employment Densities: A Full Guide (2001).

4.25 Table 5 sets out the converted employment land projections for B1 Office, B2 Factory and

B8 Warehousing and Distribution.

2008 Floorspace

2008 Hectares

2029 Floorspace

2029 Hectares

+/- Hectares

% Change

B1 259,200 64.8 297,000 74.3 9.5 14.6% B2 1,445,000 361.3 683,750 170.9 -190.3 -52.7% B8 592,553 148.1 1,101,515 276.4 128.2 86.6% Total 2,296,753 574.2 2,088,294 521.6 -52.6 -9.2%

Table 6: Employment Land Projections based on CLG/VOA floorspace trend data.

4.26 In summary this methodology reveals that Tameside should reduce its amount of

employment land by a total of 52.6 hectares over the plan period to 2029. This should be broken down as follows:

• B1 Office – increase by 9.5 hectares • B2 Factory – decrease by 190.3 hectares • B8 Warehousing – increase by 128.2 hectares

Future Work 4.9 By carrying out a full appraisal it is possible to determine the ‘gaps’ in local employment

land provision and set requirements for the identification of new sites. However, as other literature suggests sites such as Ashton Moss do already offer the type of large employment site that is attractive to logistics occupiers looking for highly accessible locations. Building on the success of Ashton Moss should be considered through the development stages of the Core Strategy. In addition to this other potential strategic locations for employment development should be put forward to allow appropriate consideration and debate.

4.10 Together with the finding of the economic review of the Borough, the final Employment

Land Review will help to inform in more detail the Core Strategy and the Site Allocations Development Plan Document which will follow. A key element of the final Employment Land Review will be an assessment of the existing employment land supply and the potential strategic sites. This work is being carried out by consultants GVA and will be available as part of the final Employment Land Review.

25

5.0 Key Issues, Challenges and Options 5.1 There are a number of considerations to address relating to the economy and employment

land within an ongoing complex and fluid social and economic situation. A particular issue is the changing policy context at a national level these include the introduction of the Localism Act (November 2011) and the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) which includes a presumption in favour of ‘sustainable development’ where local planning policies are out of date. A key element in the NPPF is paragraph 22 which states that “Planning policies should avoid the long term protection of sites being allocated for employment use where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for that purpose”.

5.2 Therefore, at a Borough level it is imperative that a Core Strategy is introduced to enable

planning decisions to be made in a local context. 5.3 At a local level the issues relating to deprivation are detailed and complex. However, in line

with the findings of the MIER and the economic assessments the key to improving the economic development potential of the Borough and tackling social deprivation is addressing the existing skills gap of residents.

5.4 Housing is a further key issue and one that is clearly defined in the MIER and the Local

Economic Assessment. Tameside has a relatively good level of affordability but it lacks in terms of choice and quality. Some areas are dominated by terraced and semi-detached housing which is not suitable if the Borough wants to keep and attract people with higher wages and skills levels. Evidence to support this comes from the ONS Annual Population Survey (2010) and clearly shows that Tameside has the lowest proportion of managers, senior officials and professional staff of any of the Greater Manchester authority areas.

5.5 In terms of employment land and premises the key issues are:

• A shortage of suitable good quality sites for future development; • Threats to existing employment land from housing and retail development; • A lack of grow-on space for indigenous companies; and • A small and relatively poor quality office market.

5.6 There are many positives, however, that will enable the Borough to address these issues

and build economic resilience:

• The excellent transport connectivity by road, rail and in the near future, Metrolink; • The location of the borough on the edge of the Peak District; • The potential for continued employment growth at Ashton Moss; • The opportunity to develop an improved office quarter at St Petersfield; and • The opportunity for employment development and economic growth presented by

Ashton town centre. 5.7 The strategic options for employment land can be summarised as follows:

1. Identify the best quality existing employment land and safeguard it for future

employment development; 2. Identify the poor quality employment sites/areas in the borough that are suitable for

non-employment or mixed-use redevelopment; and 3. Identify additional sites/areas that should be allocated to fulfil the employment land

requirements over the Core Strategy plan period to 2029 – This will include existing

26

UDP Development Opportunity Areas that remain unrealised, the remaining land at Ashton Moss and potential new locations at Ashton Moss, land at Gate Street Dukinfield and land north of Hyde Road (Mottram-in-Longdendale).

5.8 The critical issue to address in the Borough is the constrained nature of the supply. This is

a combination of the tightly drawn Green Belt boundary, the small nature of many of the existing sites available, the pressure for non-employment development on existing industrial sites and viability issues relating to the redevelopment of brownfield sites for employment in the short to medium term.

5.9 It is important to remember that at this stage in the Core Strategy process that no final

policy options or site allocations have been determined and that the Preferred Options stage represents a further stage in discussing the future direction of economic and employment land policy in Tameside.

27

Background Information

• National Planning Policy Framework, March 2012 • UK Sustainable Development Strategy – Securing the Future, 2005 • Local Growth: Realising Every Place’s Potential • The Plan for Growth, HM Treasury, 2011 • Planning for Growth, March 2011 • North West of England Plan – Regional Spatial Strategy to 2021, Nov 2008 • Manchester Independent Economic Review • Prosperity for all: The Greater Manchester Strategy • Greater Manchester Employment Land Position Statement, NLP, 2009 • Greater Manchester Local Economic Assessment: Tameside, March 2011 • Tameside Annual Monitoring Report 2009/2010 • Tameside Unitary Development Plan 2004 • Tameside Employment Land Supplementary Planning Document, 2009 • Tameside Employment Land Study – Property Market Overview/Sectoral Assessment,

CBRE, Jan 2010 • Tameside Sustainable Community Strategy 2009 – 2019 • Tameside Sustainability Appraisal Scoping Report, ENTEC, 2010 • Tameside Economic Strategy Baseline, 2011 • Enterprising Tameside, A New Economic Strategy for Tameside 2026 – October 2011 • Tameside Employment Land Review (Draft, 2012)