Local community perceptions of change and climate variability in tropical forests of Papua...
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Local Community Percep2ons of Change and Climate Variability in Tropical Forests of Papua (Indonesia) ICE 2012, Montpellier, 2125 May 2012 Manuel Boissière, Bruno Locatelli, Douglas Sheil, Michael Padmanaba , ErmayanD
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Transcript of Local community perceptions of change and climate variability in tropical forests of Papua...
Local Community Percep2ons of Change and Climate Variability in Tropical Forests of Papua (Indonesia)
ICE 2012, Montpellier, 21-‐25 May 2012 Manuel Boissière, Bruno Locatelli, Douglas Sheil, Michael Padmanaba , ErmayanD
Site descrip2on
YOKE
Papua
Mamberamo
Indonesia
Site descrip2on
YOKE
Papua
Mamberamo
Indonesia
Some numbers: -‐ Mamberamo Raya Regency: 2,8 million hectare -‐ 90% natural forest (swamp, montane, mangrove, lowland) -‐ Mamberamo-‐Foja Wildlife Reserve: +-‐ 2 million hectares -‐ PopulaDon: about 19,000 inhabitants, culDvators, hunter gatherers, sago collectors -‐ Threats: logging (>600,000 ha), coal mining project, dam project
Introduc2on
• Why quesDons on percepDon of CC maQer? • What differences between scien2fic and local
knowledge about seasonality, climate variability and climate?
• Seasonality = normal variaDon in weather
during an average year
• Climate variability = deviaDon from average • Climate change = long-‐term trend in climate,
from decades to millions of years.
Methods
• FGD part of a broader research
• 4 groups of women, men of different age per village
• Household surveys • ClimaDc data: no local meteorological staDon, database WorldClimCL25 (mean climate based on interpolaDon of weather staDon data)
Seasonality
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Papasena Perception
Climate data Kwerba Perception
Climate data Burmeso Perception
Climate data Metaweja Perception
Climate data Yoke Perception
Climate data !
Blue = wet Orange = dry White = unclear
Climate variability • Recorded inter-‐annual variability is relaDvely minor.
• Precipita2on/temperature: lower coefficient of inter-‐annual variaDon than 70%/95% of other places in the world with similar climate.
• Local people: three major events related to climate variability in the last 10 years: extreme heat, strong winds, and flash floods.
Future changes
Annual precipitaDons: ? Temperatures: Increasing
Local Percep2on: No perceived change
Climate Models
How do people adapt to clima2c events? Village Event Coping strategy
Burmeso Dry season
Flood
Use spades to break hard soil, same techniques for cultivation
Stay in the forest, in small settlements, seeking shade under trees
Temporarily relocate to higher ground
Plant only short-term crops: reduce the risk of losing produce
Kwerba Long rain
Long drought
Temporarily relocate to higher ground.
Gardens are moved, old flooded gardens still used afterwards.
Roof tiles replaced with grass or Pandanus leaves
Rain call rituals
Easier to catch fish (clearer water)
Metaweja Floods
Drought
Temporarily relocate far from the main rivers
Gardens moved to higher ground
Annual crops harvested before next rainy season
Streams change directions and locations of natural fishponds change
Taboos to prevent floods: no gardens planted in sacred mountain
Taboo against planting near the river: avoid crops swept away
Gnemo decreasing and replaced by fern leaves as wild vegetable
Papasena 1 & 2
Floods
Droughts
Gardens and hunting areas moved to higher ground
Houses built on higher stilts
Plant cassava, fast growing crops
Hunt in areas not affected, near gardens
Yoke Dry season Go further looking for drinking water (not salty)
Gardens are not moved
Damaged houses repaired together with whole community
!
Moving
PlanDng
Rituals and taboo
Other strategies
Beyond climate: percep2on of other changes
152
88 73
42 34 16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Food Ecosystem services
ConstrucDon Agriculture Shelter For future generaDon
Respon
ses
72 59
49 40
18 12 10 10 8 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Num
ber o
f answers
1. Why are forests important?
2. How are forest areas changing?
3. What causes forest cover change?
Clima2c events NOT perceived cause of forest cover change
• Meteorological data: general informaDon on climate variability.
• Local people: more detailed and locally relevant informaDon on
changes.
• They react to changes that does not include “climate change” =>
respond to climate variability and to non clima2c events (economic,
poliDcal)
• Local knowledge = complementary source of informa2on for
analysing extreme events (floods and droughts), and consequences.
• Future research and adapta2on programs should use the similariDes
between local and technical knowledge (engagement in common
acDviDes) and the gaps as direcDon for further clarificaDon.
Discussion & conclusion
Manuel Boissière ([email protected])
