Livestock Situation and Outlook...Compared to last weeks’ lighter run: Steer and heifer calves...
Transcript of Livestock Situation and Outlook...Compared to last weeks’ lighter run: Steer and heifer calves...
Cattle Situation and Outlook Tim Petry – Livestock Economist www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics October 17, 2012
Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City
Backgrounding-2012.pptx
All beef cattle market classes broke price records in 2011 and 2012
also wholesale beef prices retail beef prices
How about 2013? What could derail prices?
Livestock Price and Production Patterns 1. Seasonal 2. Cycle
3. Long term 4. Unexpected
LFTB
Drought – A Game Changer
Most Important Driver of Feeder Cattle Prices and Backgrounding Potential
CORN PRICE
FEED!
WINTER WHEAT
SILAGE
NOV FC vs DEC CORN
All Feeder Livestock Affected
Livestock Marketing Information Center; Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES700-800 Pounds, Weekly
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
C-P-4910/09/12
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES500-600 Pounds, Weekly
100110120130140150160170180190200
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
C-P-5410/09/12
FEEDER PIG PRICES40 Pounds, Weekly
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
$ Per Head
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
H-P-0110/09/12
FEEDER LAMB PRICES3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly
7090
110130150170190210230250270
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
S-P-0610/09/12
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIESResidual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
30
35
40
45
50
55
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Mil. Head
C-N-3207/20/12
-3.2%
Price Outlook?
MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES 550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
JAN APR JUL OCT
200720082009201020112012
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES 750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
8090
100110120130140150160170
JAN APR JUL OCT
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Fut 2012
Fut 2013
CME Feeder Cattle Index
859095
100105110115120125130135140145150155160
9/1/
0511
/1/0
51/
1/06
3/1/
065/
1/06
7/1/
069/
1/06
11/1
/06
1/1/
073/
1/07
5/1/
077/
1/07
9/1/
0711
/1/0
71/
1/08
3/1/
085/
1/08
7/1/
089/
1/08
11/1
/08
1/1/
093/
1/09
5/1/
097/
1/09
9/1/
0911
/1/0
91/
1/10
3/1/
105/
1/10
7/1/
109/
1/10
11/1
/10
1/1/
113/
1/11
5/1/
117/
1/11
9/1/
1111
/1/1
11/
1/12
3/1/
125/
1/12
7/1/
129/
1/12
16% 21% 19% 22% 10%
? +17%
19%
SF_LS796 Sioux Falls, SD Oct 12, 2012 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News North Dakota Weekly Auction Summary - For the week ending Oct 13, 2012 Receipts: 7,773 Last Week 4,047 Last Year 3,923 Combined results of 3 auctions this week: Kist, Napoleon and Stockmen’s. Compared to last weeks’ lighter run: Steer and heifer calves 2.00 to 3.00 higher, yearling feeder steers 1.00 to 2.00 higher, yearling feeder heifers unevenly steady. Good demand for all weights of feeders this week in spite of higher corn costs and lower feeder cattle futures markets. Cash fed cattle market inactive until late afternoon Friday when packers had to come up with higher money to get cattle bought. Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price 10 284 284 201.00 201.00 42 324-347 328 194.50-208.00 204.17 55 356-380 367 187.00-209.50 196.65 171 412-446 435 170.00-189.50 180.88 11 401-404 403 197.00-198.50 197.68 Value Added 262 457-480 465 168.00-182.00 174.74 460 504-548 526 156.00-170.00 163.01 508 550-599 571 147.25-161.00 154.24 30 621-627 626 144.00-149.00 144.99 394 603-645 626 146.00-156.00 153.26 Calves 11 694 694 154.25 154.25 175 651-699 678 145.85-154.75 149.57 Calves 163 706-722 714 144.50-152.25 150.86 Calves 99 756-788 768 142.75-149.75 144.26 44 796 796 135.75 135.75 Calves 51 807-836 814 139.25-145.75 144.05 289 852-896 873 138.00-141.50 140.47 65 933-947 946 137.60-138.50 137.68 160 958-989 973 131.25-137.60 134.33
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly
80859095
100105110115120125130135140
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
2013Futures
2012Futures
2012
2011
Avg.2006-010
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS
Price Risk Management Tools
• Cash forward contract • Video and internet auctions • CME futures • CME options • Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) • Livestock Gross Margin (LGM) • Which one or combination fits your
marketing plan?
LRP-Then purchase date: Jun 4 maturity date: Oct 29
MKT CLASS PRICE PREMIUM CURRENT
PRICE 500-600 lb. steer 172.81 4.12 157.92 750-800 lb. steer 157.10 3.75 143.56 Fed cattle 122.18 4.03 124.07
ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES
55
80
105
130
155
180
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
$ Per Cwt
500-600lbSteerCalves
700-800lbFeederSteers
FedSteers
C-P-0608/09/12Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Harvest usually brings out the bears
Questions?