Livestock Marketing Information Center
38
Livestock Marketing Information Center Midwest, Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference Calves, Feeder Cattle and Cows Jim Robb Director
description
Livestock Marketing Information Center. Midwest, Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference Calves, Feeder Cattle and Cows. Jim Robb Director. Livestock Marketing Information Center Participating States. LMIC Forecasts (S. Plains). Production. Total Inventory. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Livestock Marketing Information Center
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Midwest, Great Plains/Western Outlook
Conference
Calves, Feeder Cattle and Cows
Jim Robb Director
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Participating States
MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
90
95
100
105
110
115
120$ Per Cwt.
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES500-600 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110$ Per Cwt.
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
MED. FRAME #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES700-800 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
70
75
80
85
90
95
100$ Per Cwt.
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
FEEDER STEER vs FED STEER PRICES700-800 Lbs. Minus 1100-1300 Lbs, S. Plains, Weekly
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25$ Per Cwt.
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
BONING UTILITY COW PRICESSouthern Plains, Weekly
3436384042444648505254$ Per Cwt.
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
OMAHA CORN PRICESWeekly
1.75
1.95
2.15
2.35
2.55
2.75
2.95$ Per Bu.
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
LMIC Forecasts (S. Plains)Chce Steer % Chg. Feeder Steer
Year Pr / W. KS from Steer Pr. Calf Pr.Quarter 11-1300# Year Ago 7-800# 5-600#
($/Cwt.) (MF & LF #1)
2003I 78.46 11.0 79.25 90.64
II b/ 78.08 19.1 84.25 96.92III c/ 75-77 18.8 91-93 98-99
IV 75-79 10.4 87-90 96-99Year 75-78 14.6 85-87 95-97
2004I 77-81 0.7 87-91 98-105
II 76-82 1.2 83-90 98-109III 72-77 -2.0 84-92 94-105IV 76-81 1.9 81-89 90-101
Year 75-80 0.5 84-90 95-105
WESTERN KANSAS CALF & CORN PRICESWeekly
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
$ Per Cwt.
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2$ Per Bu.
5-600 lbSteer
TexasCorn
CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVENCattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
$ Per Cwt
SteerPrice
Breakeven
ProjectedBreakevenLatest Data: July 2003
US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONPercent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.1997-012002
2003
WESTERN REGIONRANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION
Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.1997-012002
2003
GREAT PLAINS REGIONRANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION
Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.1997-012002
2003
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGIONRANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION
Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
05
1015
202530
3540
4550
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.1997-012002
2003
CORNBELT REGIONRANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION
Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
05
1015
202530
3540
4550
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.1997-012002
2003
NORTHEAST REGIONRANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION
Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.1997-012002
2003
SOUTHEAST REGIONRANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION
Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.1997-012002
2003
TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLEU.S., January 1
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Mil. Head
1938-49
1949-58
1958-67
1967-79
1979-90
1990-03
PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORYU.S., January 1
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
BEEF PRODUCTION vs. CATTLE INVENTORY
Inventory on January 1, U.S.
90
100
110
120
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
Mil. Head
20
22
24
26
28Bil. Pounds
Production
Total Inventory
CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERSJULY 1, 2002 TO JULY 1, 2003
(1000 Head)
Other States
US Total
93 to 93 (1)20 to 93 (2)10 to 20 (2)
-23 to 10 (2)-50 to -23 (2)-77 to -50 (2)
-50-66
10
21 -23
20
-77
-33
93-57
-150
2
10
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS
July 1, U.S.
3
4
5
6
7
8
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Mil. Head
0 %
JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIESResidual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Mil. Head
HEIFER SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
160170180190200210220230240250260Thou. Head
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
-100
-50
0
50
100
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
$ Per Cow
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135Mil. Head
Cow-CalfReturns
CattleInventoryJan 1
BEEF COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80Thou. Head
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
DAIRY COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70Thou. Head
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
BEEF IN COLD STORAGEEnd of the Month
300320340360380400420440460480500520540
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV
Mil. Pounds
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 90% Lean, Weekly
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130$ Per Cwt.
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
PERCENT CHANGE IN COW PRICESFrom November of Previous Year, S. Plains
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Nov-Jan Nov-Feb Nov-Mar Nov-Apr Nov-May
Percent
Avg.1993-02
2003
CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA AND MEXICO
Annual
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Thou. Head
Mexico
Canada
CATTLE EXPORTS TO CANADA AND MEXICO
Annual
0
100
200
300
400
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Thou. Head
Mexico
Canada
FEEDLOT PLACEMENTSAlberta & Saskatchewan Total, Monthly
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Thou. Head
Avg.2000/01
2002
2003
ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
$ Per Cwt
500-600lbSteerCalves
700-800lbFeederSteers
FedSteers
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