Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are...

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Table of Contents Beef and Veal Overview………….......……………………………… 2 Cattle and Beef Summary Tables.…….…… 3 Pork Overview………………………………….....………… 7 Swine and Pork Summary Tables…………… 8 Chicken Meat Overview………………….............………………… 12 Chicken Meat Summary Tables ………..…… 13 Notes to Readers…………...……….…………… 15 COUNTRIES Beef Pork Chicken Meat Angola x Argentina x Australia x Brazil x x x Canada x x x China x x x Cuba x EU x x x Hong Kong x x Iraq x Japan x x x Mexico x x x New Zealand x Philippines x x Saudi Arabia x South Africa x South Korea x x x Thailand x United States x x x Country/Commodities for January and July Releases Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service January 10, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade New Publication and Data Release Schedule Starting with this circular, Livestock and Poultry estimates will be published four times per year (January, April, July, October) for selected countries. However, all countries will be updated in April and October. The next release of this circular is April 9, 2020.

Transcript of Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are...

Page 1: Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised. Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast

 

Table of Contents   

Beef and Veal   

Overview………….......………………………………  2 

Cattle and Beef Summary Tables.…….……  3  

Pork 

Overview………………………………….....…………  7 

Swine and Pork Summary Tables……………  8  

Chicken Meat   

Overview………………….............…………………  12 

Chicken Meat Summary Tables ………..……  13  

Notes to Readers…………...……….……………  15  

COUNTRIES Beef PorkChicken 

MeatAngola x

Argentina x

Australia x

Brazil x x x

Canada x x x

China x x x

Cuba x

EU x x x

Hong Kong x x

Iraq x

Japan x x x

Mexico x x x

New Zealand x

Philippines x x

Saudi Arabia x

South Africa x

South Korea x x x

Thailand x

United States x x x

Country/Commodities for              

January and July Releases

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription, click here to register:  https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new 

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service January 10, 2020  

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade  

      New Publication and Data Release Schedule 

  

Starting with this circular, Livestock and Poultry estimates will be published four times per year  (January, April, July, October) for selected countries.   However, all countries will be updated in April and October.   The next release of this circular is April 9, 2020.     

 

Page 2: Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised. Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Selected revisions from the October 2019 Forecast:

Argentina: Production in 2019 and 2020 is revised higher due to rising cattle slaughter driven

by robust export demand. Exports for 2019 and 2020 are revised upward as packers will

continue to capitalize on Chinese market opportunities stemming from shifts in animal protein

supplies and consumption spurred by African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks. In addition to a

favorable exchange rate supporting competitive prices in the global market, a weak economy

has depressed domestic beef consumption generating an uptick in exportable supplies. These

factors are expected to more than offset the impact of higher export taxes announced in

December 2019.

Australia: For 2019, expected exports are revised higher to over 1.8 million tons on stronger-

than-expected demand, particularly from China. The ongoing drought has bolstered cattle

slaughter, which is also revised upward, generating greater exportable beef supplies. The beef

production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised.

Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast for 2020 is

revised marginally lower to 2.6 million tons. Higher-than-expected beef prices in 2020 will

dampen domestic consumption which is forecast down 2 percent. Despite a slight downward

revision (2 percent), the 2020 production forecast remains at a record level (10.6 million tons).

China: Imports for 2019 are revised lower on weaker-than-expected demand. Imports for

2020 are unchanged.

Beef and Veal

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 January 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 3: Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised. Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast

Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Production

3,1503,1253,1203,0403,0502,840 Argentina

2,0852,0802,4502,3002,3062,149 Australia

10,58510,80010,22510,2109,9009,550 Brazil

1,3701,3251,3501,3301,2651,201 Canada

6,6256,6256,8506,8506,4406,346 China

7,7807,7807,8757,9108,0037,869 European Union

556666 Hong Kong

475470470475475469 Japan

295296280289279281 Korea, South

2,0652,0702,0202,0301,9801,925 Mexico

679685686686672654 New Zealand

13,98113,9811,36713,72515,84515,754 Others

49,09549,24249,22336,49350,22149,044 Total Foreign

12,51412,61912,38112,28912,25611,943 United States

61,60961,86161,60448,78262,47760,987 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

2,3252,3652,3722,3602,5622,547 Argentina

627650637655656677 Australia

8,0478,2407,9148,0037,8667,750 Brazil

9859351,012967999981 Canada

9,5089,5089,1339,2337,9107,313 China

7,7757,7857,8627,9058,0247,838 European Union

355355356356547549 Hong Kong

1,3601,3601,3321,3451,3201,273 Japan

920942892926853818 Korea, South

1,8801,8901,8651,8801,8721,841 Mexico

504950505174 New Zealand

13,55113,5511,79213,62815,79915,344 Others

47,38347,63047,07635,47248,45947,005 Total Foreign

12,32112,42212,40812,24012,18012,052 United States

59,70460,05259,48447,71260,63959,057 Total

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). From 2019, the following countries

are excluded: Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Peru, Singapore, Turkey, and Venezuela. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys

the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 January 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 4: Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised. Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast

Beef and Veal Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Total Imports

15151720190 Argentina

121212121213 Australia

424045434856 Brazil

215190215200245239 Canada

2,9002,9002,3002,4001,467974 China

355355357355373337 European Union

350350350350541543 Hong Kong

890890870880862813 Japan

625645610635582531 Korea, South

205210200205202196 Mexico

131513141213 New Zealand

2,7572,7574402,7822,9972,904 Others

8,3798,3797,7885,5547,3606,619 Total Foreign

1,3061,3021,3881,3741,3601,358 United States

9,6859,6819,1766,9288,7207,977 Total

none

Total Exports

840775765700507293 Argentina

1,4701,4421,8251,6571,6621,485 Australia

2,5802,6002,3562,2502,0821,856 Brazil

610590560570502461 Canada

171717171717 China

360350370360352368 European Union

000000 Hong Kong

666654 Japan

000000 Korea, South

390390355355310280 Mexico

642651649650633593 New Zealand

3,1873,187152,8793,0633,314 Others

10,10210,0089,9426,5809,1338,671 Total Foreign

1,4991,4991,3721,4181,4341,297 United States

11,60111,50711,3147,99810,5679,968 Total

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). From 2019, the following

countries are excluded: Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Peru, Singapore, Turkey, and Venezuela. The notation of a month beneath a year

conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 January 2020Global Market Analysis

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Cattle Stocks - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

53,68554,08553,80553,80553,71553,515 Argentina

23,93424,48425,73425,73426,17624,971 Australia

244,150244,143238,158238,158232,350226,045 Brazil

11,04511,07511,44011,44011,56511,535 Canada

87,50087,50090,00090,00090,38788,345 China

86,25086,08087,40787,40788,81989,152 European Union

3,8503,8453,8353,8353,8423,822 Japan

3,6293,5923,5213,5213,4293,381 Korea, South

16,92016,90016,69916,69916,58416,490 Mexico

10,10310,12810,10710,10710,14610,152 New Zealand

353,268353,26818,050351,311364,651363,025 Others

894,334895,100892,017558,756901,664890,433 Total Foreign

94,70094,95094,76094,76094,29893,625 United States

989,034990,050986,777653,516995,962984,058 Total

none

Production (Calf Crop)

14,90014,90014,78014,78014,65014,200 Argentina

8,4008,5008,7008,7009,1009,700 Australia

51,50051,50050,49050,49049,50048,735 Brazil

4,4004,4004,3254,3254,2924,348 Canada

49,50049,50048,50048,50047,50048,800 China

28,30028,30028,35028,35028,80029,550 European Union

1,2301,2301,2251,2251,2241,201 Japan

1,0281,000991982968932 Korea, South

8,1058,1057,9007,9007,7007,485 Mexico

4,8754,8554,9154,9154,8954,728 New Zealand

84,15084,1506,59083,65087,28086,832 Others

256,388256,440253,826176,757255,909256,511 Total Foreign

36,20036,20036,30036,30036,40335,758 United States

292,588292,640290,126213,057292,312292,269 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2019, Turkey is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which

the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 January 2020Global Market Analysis

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Cattle Trade - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Total Imports

000000 Argentina

000000 Australia

000000 Brazil

250210260210202141 Canada

170170160160168121 China

000000 European Union

151515151415 Japan

000000 Korea, South

282827272432 Mexico

000000 New Zealand

3823821104521,8021,213 Others

8458059145222,2101,522 Total Foreign

2,0652,1502,0302,0501,8991,807 United States

2,9102,9552,9442,5724,1093,329 Total

none

Total Exports

000000 Argentina

9009001,3001,1501,151885 Australia

605650554630785407 Brazil

700700730710631642 Canada

151517171919 China

9209209759501,0051,028 European Union

000000 Japan

000000 Korea, South

1,4001,4001,3301,3501,2781,203 Mexico

201722171727 New Zealand

30230225277500436 Others

4,8624,9045,2054,8495,3864,647 Total Foreign

285265295265244193 United States

5,1475,1695,5005,1145,6304,840 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2019, Turkey is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which

the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 January 2020Global Market Analysis

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Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Selected revisions from the October 2019 Forecast:

Canada: Exports are revised up 8 percent in 2020 after China removed restrictions on imports of Canadian beef and pork in November. China accounted for one-third of Canada’s exports in the first half of 2019, but exports struggled during the second half due to the loss in market access. Production is revised 2 percent higher in 2020 on improved export prospects.

China: Pork production is revised up nearly 4 percent in 2020 on strong gains in average carcass weights and, to a lesser extent, slaughter. Motivated by record profits, producers are finishing animals at higher weights to maximize pork output. However, a sharply lower breeding herd and continued impacts from African Swine Fever (ASF) will drive production 23 percent lower year-over-year in 2020. Pork imports are unchanged at 2.6 million tons in 2019 and revised up 200,000 tons to 3.7 million tons in 2020. The United States, Canada, and Brazil all stand to increase market share in China this year; however, the European Union is expected to remain the dominant supplier.

European Union: Exports are revised 6 percent higher in 2019 on strong second-half shipments to China. Monthly exports reached a record 400,000 tons in October with exports to China quadrupling year-over-year to 250,000 tons. 2020 exports are unchanged at a record 3.9 million tons. Pork production forecasts are revised marginally lower on reduced slaughter.

Mexico: Imports are revised down 2 and 3 percent in 2019 and 2020 respectively. A weak economy has slowed gains in pork consumption while growth in domestic production has reduced demand for imports. Despite the removal of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork last spring, imports have been slow to rebound.

Philippines: Pork production is lowered 2 percent in 2019. ASF has not spread as quickly as previously anticipated, resulting in a lower-than-expected herd liquidation. Higher-than-expected hog supplies and fewer disease impacts boost 2020 production by 5 percent from the previous estimate, but production is forecast to fall 10 percent year-over-year due to ASF impacts. Imports are lowered 14 percent for 2020 due to higher domestic supplies.

Pork

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 January 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 8: Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised. Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast

Pork Production - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Production

4,1554,1553,9753,9753,7633,725 Brazil

2,0852,0502,0202,0001,9551,958 Canada

36,00034,75046,50046,50054,04054,518 China

24,25024,40023,98024,12024,08223,660 European Union

54538377128126 Hong Kong

1,2901,3001,2851,2951,2841,272 Japan

1,3351,3751,3521,3651,3291,280 Korea, South

1,4651,4501,4051,3901,3211,267 Mexico

1,4751,4001,6401,6751,6011,563 Philippines

11,27511,2753,24010,91211,49211,085 Others

83,38482,20893,45885,637100,995100,454 Total Foreign

12,99913,01512,54312,51611,94311,611 United States

96,38395,223106,00198,153112,938112,065 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

3,1573,1073,1173,1023,0352,941 Brazil

940955939939864816 Canada

39,60038,15048,97048,97055,39855,930 China

20,36520,51520,34520,68521,16320,817 European Union

354428418427551589 Hong Kong

2,7852,8052,7302,7902,7752,731 Japan

2,0442,1042,0262,0442,0011,926 Korea, South

2,4502,4852,3902,4052,3312,180 Mexico

1,7751,7501,8791,9391,8871,804 Philippines

12,38912,3893,31012,10212,58912,336 Others

85,85984,68895,22586,611102,594102,070 Total Foreign

10,16510,10110,1269,9519,7489,541 United States

96,02494,789105,35196,562112,342111,611 Total

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 January 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 9: Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised. Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast

Pork Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Total Imports

222222 Brazil

260225250250233222 Canada

3,7003,5002,6002,6001,5611,620 China

151515151414 European Union

300375335350423463 Hong Kong

1,4901,5151,5101,5101,4811,475 Japan

695700685700753645 Korea, South

1,2351,2751,2001,2251,1881,083 Mexico

300350240265287242 Philippines

1,5901,5901301,6201,4961,612 Others

9,5879,5478,4607,0477,4387,378 Total Foreign

401415434434473506 United States

9,9889,9628,8947,4817,9117,884 Total

none

Total Exports

1,0001,050860875730786 Brazil

1,4001,3001,3301,3151,3311,351 Canada

100100130130203208 China

3,9003,9003,6503,4502,9332,857 European Union

000000 Hong Kong

553545 Japan

111112 Korea, South

250240215210178170 Mexico

001111 Philippines

47647660430399361 Others

7,1327,0726,6206,0475,7805,741 Total Foreign

3,2213,3112,8562,9852,6652,555 United States

10,35310,3839,4769,0328,4458,296 Total

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 January 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 10: Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised. Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast

Swine Stocks - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Total Beginning Stocks

37,72537,72538,42738,42738,82939,215 Brazil

14,15014,18013,97513,97514,17013,935 Canada

335,000310,000428,070428,070441,589442,092 China

148,500148,500148,192148,223150,257147,188 European Union

9,2429,2429,1569,1569,2809,346 Japan

11,09011,50011,33311,33311,27311,487 Korea, South

11,12511,00010,80010,70010,41010,229 Mexico

33,42533,42523,60032,59432,33731,743 Others

600,257575,572692,547683,484708,145705,235 Total Foreign

77,33877,05075,07074,91573,14571,345 United States

677,595652,622767,617758,399781,290776,580 Total

none

Production (Pig Crop)

44,00044,00042,50042,50040,95440,230 Brazil

28,90028,55028,45028,30028,02729,026 Canada

412,000410,000490,000490,000685,000705,000 China

270,000271,000266,500267,500267,000267,250 European Union

17,03017,03017,00017,00016,69016,785 Japan

19,41519,82519,53019,70019,11818,191 Korea, South

20,20019,95019,60019,40018,75018,100 Mexico

66,07566,07550,91564,48063,36659,792 Others

877,620876,430948,060935,3151,138,9051,154,374 Total Foreign

142,790143,255138,032138,145132,568129,429 United States

1,020,4101,019,6851,086,0921,073,4601,271,4731,283,803 Total

Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 January 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 11: Livestock and Poultry: and Trade - Cornell University...production and export forecasts for 2020 are raised. Brazil: Exports for 2019 totalled nearly 2.4 million tons. The export forecast

Swine Trade - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Total Imports

222222 Brazil

260225250250233222 Canada

3,7003,5002,6002,6001,5611,620 China

151515151414 European Union

1,4901,5151,5101,5101,4811,475 Japan

695700685700753645 Korea, South

1,2351,2751,2001,2251,1881,083 Mexico

2,1902,3157052,2352,2062,317 Others

9,5879,5478,4607,0477,4387,378 Total Foreign

401415434434473506 United States

9,9889,9628,8947,4817,9117,884 Total

none

Total Exports

1,0001,050860875730786 Brazil

1,4001,3001,3301,3151,3311,351 Canada

100100130130203208 China

3,9003,9003,6503,4502,9332,857 European Union

553545 Japan

111112 Korea, South

250240215210178170 Mexico

47647661431400362 Others

7,1327,0726,6206,0475,7805,741 Total Foreign

3,2213,3112,8562,9852,6652,555 United States

10,35310,3839,4769,0328,4458,296 Total

Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 January 2020Global Market Analysis

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Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Source: Trade Data

Monitor, LLC

Obust

Selected revisions from the October 2019 Forecast:

Angola: Imports for 2020 are revised down 11 percent to 250,000 tons due to a depreciating

currency and lowered expectations for income growth. Through October 2019 imports

declined 23 percent year-on-year.

Brazil: Exports for 2019 and 2020 are revised down 4 and 7 percent respectively to 3.72 and

3.75 million tons due to lower-than-expected shipments to the EU, Cuba, and Africa which

partially offset growing trade to China.

China: Production for 2019 and 2020 is revised down to 13.1 and 14.8 million tons

respectively, based on official production data. Despite the downward revision, production will

reach a record level in 2020 as lower pork supplies due to African Swine Fever (ASF) spur

chicken consumption.

Cuba: Imports for 2020 are revised down 37 percent

to 145,000 tons due to worsening economic

conditions, foreign currency shortages, and limited

credit availability. U.S. exports to Cuba fell from a

record monthly high of 34,000 tons in July 2019 to

4,000 tons in October and November.

Iraq: Imports for 2019 and 2020 are both revised

down to 500,000 tons due to weaker-than-expected demand.

Philippines: Imports for 2019 are revised up 10 percent to 345,000 tons as consumers

substitute chicken for pork following ASF outbreaks.

South Africa: Imports for 2019 are revised down 11 percent to 485,000 on lower imports

from Brazil and the United States due to uncertainty regarding proposed tariff hikes. Imports

for 2020 are revised down 14 percent to 480,000 tons.

Thailand: Exports for 2019 and 2020 are revised down 11 and 12 percent to 885,000 and

970,000 tons respectively on lower-than-expected 2019 exports and an appreciating currency.

Exports to China slowed over the summer in 2019 due to lower-than-expected Chinese prices

and the temporary ban of a major Thai poultry exporter.

Chicken Meat

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 January 2020Global Market Analysis

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Chicken Meat Production - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Production

282528222727 Angola

13,91513,97513,63513,63513,35513,612 Brazil

1,3601,3551,3301,3301,2961,236 Canada

14,80015,80013,10013,80011,70011,600 China

232625252524 Cuba

12,60012,60012,46012,46012,26011,912 European Union

245225235215219201 Iraq

1,7351,7351,7201,7201,6851,661 Japan

955957942942915852 Korea, South

3,7253,7103,6253,6003,4853,400 Mexico

1,6001,6001,4501,4501,3801,344 Philippines

750750730730710600 Saudi Arabia

1,4201,4201,3951,3951,4071,335 South Africa

3,4903,4903,3003,3003,1702,990 Thailand

25,66525,6654,74025,12524,58924,133 Others

82,31183,33379,10059,36476,22374,927 Total Foreign

20,61520,16519,90619,82319,36118,938 United States

102,926103,49899,00679,18795,58493,865 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

278305273282344294 Angola

10,1759,9389,9259,7899,6719,768 Brazil

1,4201,4051,3811,3741,3341,273 Canada

15,12016,11013,23513,98011,59511,475 China

168256315315305305 Cuba

11,70011,75011,65511,66011,53611,281 European Union

745805735770745645 Iraq

2,8202,8252,8002,8102,7612,688 Japan

1,0901,1071,0621,0671,040988 Korea, South

4,5884,5734,4684,4434,3014,198 Mexico

1,9901,9981,7951,7631,7001,609 Philippines

1,3401,3451,3181,3201,3081,275 Saudi Arabia

1,8501,9301,8301,8951,8771,778 South Africa

2,5002,3702,4552,3502,3542,226 Thailand

27,64927,6494,78527,09426,57626,295 Others

83,43384,36680,34158,60377,44776,098 Total Foreign

17,27116,91216,66416,59816,18415,826 United States

100,704101,27897,00575,20193,63191,924 Total

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 January 2020Global Market Analysis

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Chicken Meat Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2017 2018 2019

Oct

2019

Jan

2020

Oct

2020

Jan

none

Total Imports

250280245260317267 Angola

535433 Brazil

180170175165170174 Canada

750750565625342311 China

145230290290280281 Cuba

710760740780703692 European Union

500580500555526444 Iraq

1,0951,1001,0801,0901,0741,056 Japan

185200180185163132 Korea, South

865865845845820804 Mexico

390400345315320266 Philippines

635625630620628711 Saudi Arabia

480555485545521508 South Africa

222221 Thailand

3,7003,7002003,5693,3833,445 Others

9,89210,2209,6566,4819,2529,095 Total Foreign

626160606459 United States

9,95410,2819,7166,5419,3169,154 Total

none

Total Exports

000000 Angola

3,7454,0403,7153,8503,6873,847 Brazil

125125123120124134 Canada

430440430445447436 China

000000 Cuba

1,6101,6101,5451,5801,4271,323 European Union

000000 Iraq

777777 Japan

55555050336 Korea, South

222246 Mexico

020201 Philippines

453042303036 Saudi Arabia

504550455165 South Africa

9701,100885990826757 Thailand

1,7161,7161481,5931,4081,288 Others

8,7559,1728,4427,2698,0447,906 Total Foreign

3,4043,3253,2593,2623,2453,137 United States

12,15912,49711,70110,53111,28911,043 Total

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 January 2020Global Market Analysis

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Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and chicken meat trade.

Data Revisions in PSDs for Years Prior to 2018: Revisions are made based on new and/or additional information.

Commodity/Attribute Years Countries

Cattle

Trade 2012-2017 Canada

Beef

Trade 2009-2017 Canada

Swine

Trade 2010-2017 China, EU

Pork

Trade 2010-2017 Brazil, EU, Philippines, South Korea

Chicken Meat

Production 2013-2017 Angola, Iraq

Trade 2010-2017 Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Africa

Conversion Rates and HS Codes

Beef & Veal Pork Chicken Meat

Conversion Rate 1.4 1.3 None

HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201 Frozen: 0202 Processed: 021020 & 160250

Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249

Fresh/Chilled: 020711, 020713 Frozen: 020712, 020714 Processed: 160232

Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded. Also, beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates include carabeef (water buffalo).

Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported.

RTC (Ready-to-Cook): RTC means any slaughtered poultry free from protruding pinfeathers and vestigial feathers (hair or down), from which the head, feet, crop, oil gland, trachea, esophagus, entrails, and lungs have been removed, and from which the mature reproductive organs and kidneys may have been removed, and with or without the giblets, and which is suitable for cooking without need of further processing Ready-to-cook poultry also means any cut-up or disjointed portion of poultry or other parts of poultry, such as reproductive organs, head, or feet that are suitable for cooking without need of further processing.

Assumptions Diseases: Forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions in place as of January 10, 2020 and assumes their continuation.

Trade Actions: This report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by these forecasts.

Notes to Readers

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Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources

• Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/.

Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view archived and future releases. Starting with this circular, Livestock and Poultry estimates will be published four times per year (January, April, July, October) for selected countries. However, all countries will be updated in April and October. The next release of this circular is April 9, 2020.

Country/Commodities for January and July Releases

Countries Beef Pork Chicken Meat

Angola x

Argentina x

Australia x

Brazil x x x

Canada x x x

China x x x

Cuba x

EU x x x

Hong Kong x x

Iraq x

Japan x x x

Mexico x x x

New Zealand x

Philippines x x

Saudi Arabia x

South Africa x

South Korea x x x

Thailand x

United States x x x

Questions may be directed to the following staff: Lindsay Kuberka (202) 644-4650 [email protected] Swine and Pork Matt Snyder (202) 369-1068 [email protected] Chicken Meat

Jake Vuillemin (202) 690-4476 [email protected] Cattle and Beef

Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Livestock and Poultry

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 January 2020Global Market Analysis