Livelihood strategies under climate change vulnerability constraints in Quang Nam, Nghe An, Ha Tinh...
-
Upload
shannon-hart -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Livelihood strategies under climate change vulnerability constraints in Quang Nam, Nghe An, Ha Tinh...
Livelihood strategies under climate change vulnerability constraints in Quang Nam, Nghe An, Ha Tinh and
Quang Binh provinces, Vietnam
Livelihood strategies under climate change vulnerability constraints in Quang Nam, Nghe An, Ha Tinh and
Quang Binh provinces, Vietnam
Using data from detailed household surveys conducted from 2009-2014/2015 in 4 different provinces (166 and 460 households respectively). The idea was to discuss various approaches to defining vulnerability and adaptation strategies.
If we use the economic losses as an indicator of sensitivity (change in income attributed to natural disaster factors), we conclude the following:
Economic losses under climate change related natural disasters in Quang Nam, Vietnam
The disaster losses are directly related to the income level of the households. Higher income households experience also higher losses.
Even in relative terms, the rich income households are those most affected by the typhoon (Ketsana)
We saw no correlation between the degree of severity of losses and the geographical location of households. Of the interviewed households, 80% of them experienced economic losses greater than 50% of their income base.
From vulnerability in Quang Nam to livelihood strategies in Nghe An, Ha Tinh and Quang Binh
Based on these findings, we could ask whether climate change in Vietnam in fact is more of a concern for richer households than poorer ones
First step was asking households the following question: ‘How seriously do you consider the following stress factors impacting your household?’. Answering on a scale from 0 to 10. Teasing out climate related stress factors, we define climate impact as high for values greater than 8.
Climate change matters for all ? Nghe An, Ha Tinh and Quang Binh, Vietnam
More poor households in 2013 are found to having experienced a high impact from climate changes (40 households vs. 28 households in the low impact group).
A test for the third order interaction term between poverty in 2008 compared to 2013 and impact of climate change being zero ,shows significance, p = 2.67%. Poor households suffer more from climate impacts (perception based)
Table 3 Poor/not poor 2008 and 2013, low climate impact households
Controlling for impact=Low
p_2008 p_now
Not poor in 2013 Poor in 2013 Total
Not poor in 2008 99 94.29
6 5.71
105
Poor in 2008 9 29.03
22 70.97
31
Total 108 28 136
Table 4 Poor/not poor 2008 and 2013, high impact households
Controlling for impact=High
p_2008 p_now
Not poor in 2013 Poor in 2013 Total
Not poor in 2008 70 81.40
16 18.60
86
Poor in 2008 14 36.84
24 63.16
38
Total 84 40 124
Search for alternative income sources is not correlated with the impact of climate change or to changes in poverty status. Contrary to what looks like a common sense reaction, poor households do not see their income base dwindling because of natural disasters. The do not rush out of rice cropping to embark on non-farm economic activities, rather they continue their agricultural activities and invest more money and labor force in rice farming.
Climate change matters for all ? Nghe An and Quang Binh, Vietnam
In this sense, the vulnerable households’ responses are short-term, individual sought solutions and certainly less viable in the long-term.
Why do poor households do not opt for alternative livelihood strategies ?
Climate change matters for all ? Nghe An and Quang Binh, Vietnam
Climate change matters for all ? Nghe An and Quang Binh, Vietnam
Poor households might not master the skills required in alternative job situations.
Poor households are trapped between a political system with virtually no compensation, when the disaster hits and a government approach with no permanent alternative livelihood strategy to offer.
Data from the last field trip, fall 2014 and spring 2015. No article yet published.
Parameter Estimates
Variable Label DF Parameter
Estimate Standard
Error t Value Pr > |t|
Intercept Intercept 1 0.22571 0.07951 2.84 0.0060
d101a1 d101a1. impact of flooding 1 0.03053 0.04408 0.69 0.4911
d101b1 d101b1. impact of drought 1 -0.09374 0.03859 -2.43 0.0178
d101c1 d101c1. impact of "salt water intrusion" 1 0.00629 0.02720 0.23 0.8179
d101d1 d101d1. impact of typhoons 1 -0.03209 0.04756 -0.67 0.5022
ds_income_crops (difference in crop share of total income, from 2010 to 2014):
Parameter Estimates
Variable Label DF Parameter
Estimate Standard
Error t Value Pr > |t|
Intercept Intercept 1 -0.45782 0.08783 -5.21 <.0001
d101a1 d101a1. impact of flooding 1 -0.07416 0.04870 -1.52 0.1325
d101b1 d101b1. impact of drought 1 0.14498 0.04263 3.40 0.0011
d101c1 d101c1. impact of "salt water intrusion" 1 0.01021 0.03005 0.34 0.7351
d101d1 d101d1. impact of typhoons 1 0.06861 0.05254 1.31 0.1961
ds_income_animal
In terms of changes in economic activities, households react to drought but not to flooding. When asked about the severity of different disasters, households claim flooding is more important.
An explanation could be drought is a new climate related phenomenon and more difficult to cope with.
Migration and de-agrinization• In other recent articles authors argue
that migration is a livelihood strategy for household exposed to agricultural and economic shocks (Nguyen et al., 2015). Migration for education is more likely among households with higher income.
• Other studies again are in line with our own findings arguing that all households are experiencing negative effects of disasters and access to remittances can help households to survive the disasters (Arouri et al, 2015).
• We believe the increasing migration of family members is the first step in a general de-agrinization of the villages we visit.