Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah...
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Transcript of Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah...
![Page 1: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Linwood PendletonSenior Fellow
The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor
UCLA
Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn
UCLA© Laura Brophy
Determining the Impact of Coastal Restoration on Human Use: Zuma Lagoon
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Restoration of Zuma Lagoon
Zuma Lagoon Before (1987) and After Restoration (2002)
Source: Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission
© californiacoastline.org © californiacoastline.org
![Page 3: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration
© Perla Atiyah
![Page 4: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration
© Perla Atiyah
![Page 5: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration
© Perla Atiyah
![Page 6: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration
© Perla Atiyah
![Page 7: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Can’t Just Look At Policy Site
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Zuma BeachZuma Beach
Restoration
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Does Coastal Restoration Affect Visitation: Zuma Lagoon
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Zuma Beach All Beaches (excluding Zuma)
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PANEL DATA
1)BEFORE2)AFTER3)WITH4)WITHOUT
NEED ENOUGH DATA FORSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS!
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26 Beaches, 10 Years of Data
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nicholas Cyn
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Zuma Beach
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Santa Monica (S)
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Manhattan Beach
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Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before and After Diversion
Other Factors: Storm Drain Diversions
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Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before & After Diversion
Before After
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Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before Diversion
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Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: After Diversion
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Model Affect on Beach Visitation
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance -------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94
Policy Interventions1) Restoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 2) Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
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Control for Other Factors
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94
Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
![Page 17: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Control for Other Factors
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94
Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
![Page 18: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Control for Other Factors
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94
Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
![Page 19: Linwood Pendleton Senior Fellow The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor UCLA Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn UCLA © Laura Brophy Determining the.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649f265503460f94c3d220/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The Impact is Statistically > > 0
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance -------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -20,344 79%
Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -12,701 90% Warm Days Inland 7,240 88% Warm Water Days (>65F) 3,584 71%
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -62,361 70% Wet + Dry HTB Grade 31,481 89%
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure -31,834 23%Local Population Growth 251,478 18%
Policy Interventions
Restoration at Zuma 1,200,744
99%Storm Drain Diversion 610,324 99+%
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
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Restoration/Mitigation Increase Visitation
Additional Annual Visits due toRestoration at Zuma 1.2 million
Storm Drain Diversion 600,000
Some Economic ContextAverage spending/visit ~ $27, • $32 million/yr in additional spending at restoration (cost = $158,000 plus in kind contributions and volunteers)
• $16 million/yr in additional spending at storm drain diversion sites (cost <$620,000)
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Restoration/Mitigation Increase Visitation
Additional Annual Visits due toRestoration at Zuma 1.2 million
Storm Drain Diversion 600,000
Some economic contextNon-market value/visit ~ $16, • $19 million/yr in additional non-market value at restoration site (cost <$158,000 +)
• $9.6 million/yr in additional non-market value at storm drain diversion site (cost <$620,000 plus maintenance)
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Conclusion• Need to demonstrate (empirically) affect of restoration on people.
•Need long term data, at many sites, to understand local impacts of restoration.
•Need to collect a set of consistent human use and environmental/ecological data in estuary and coastal areas
•Restoration•MPAs•Pollution/mitigation•Development, etc.