LINKING THE HUNTER AND ORANA REGION€¦ · The eastern end of Golden Highway carries over 5,000...

LINKING THE HUNTER AND ORANA REGION Establishing the Case for Improving the Golden Highway

Regional Development Australia

THE GOLDEN HIGHWAY STRATEGIC CORRIDOR - Linking the Hunter and Orana Regions -

Regional Development Australia – Hunter and Orana

Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd-ABN 76 104 485 289

\\hc-aus-ns-fs-01\jobs\aa006216\f-reports\aa006216 golden highway corridor final report v10 25 november.doc

Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd

ABN 76 104 485 289

Level 5, 141 Walker Street Locked Bag 6503 North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia Tel: +61 2 8907 9000

Fax: +61 2 8907 9001

www.hyderconsulting.com

LINKING THE HUNTER AND ORANA REGIONS

Establishing the case for improving the Golden Highway Regional Development Australia

Author

Sally Manahan/Neil

Matthews

Checker Calum Hutcheson

Approver Neil Matthews

Report No 1

Date 26th November 2013

This report has been prepared for Regional Development

Australia Hunter and Orana Offices in accordance with the

terms and conditions of appointment for Golden Highway

Study dated 12 June 2014.

Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd (ABN 76 104 485 289) cannot

accept any responsibility for any use of or reliance on the

contents of this report by any third party.



Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd-ABN 76 104 485 289 Page 1


CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................... 2

2 OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 6

2.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 6

2.2 Purpose of Study ......................................................................................................................... 6

2.3 The role of the Golden Highway .................................................................................................... 8

3 PAST ASSESSMENTS ........................................................................................................... 11

4 IMPORTANT REGIONAL PROFILES ..................................................................................... 13

4.1 Orana region .............................................................................................................................. 13

4.2 Hunter region ............................................................................................................................. 15

4.3 Economic Contribution to NSW................................................................................................... 16

5 THE TRANSPORT TASK ....................................................................................................... 19

5.1 A Network Perspective ............................................................................................................... 19

5.2 Freight Volumes ......................................................................................................................... 19

5.3 Captive and Contestable Freight ................................................................................................. 21

5.4 Key Commodities ....................................................................................................................... 22

5.5 Traffic on the Corridor ................................................................................................................ 26

5.6 Corridor capacity analysis........................................................................................................... 30

6 CORRIDOR PROFILE AND PERFORMANCE........................................................................ 32

6.1 Road Formation and Alignment .................................................................................................. 32

6.2 Bridges and Crossings ............................................................................................................... 33

6.3 Overtaking and Passing Lanes ................................................................................................... 33

6.4 Crashes ..................................................................................................................................... 33

6.5 Summary ................................................................................................................................... 34

7 STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES ............................................................................................... 38

8 APPENDICES......................................................................................................................... 40

8.1 Infrastructure Australia Reform and Investment Framework ......................................................... 42





1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This study highlights the relative importance of the Golden Highway within the state and

national network of transport corridors and provides a platform to identify and invest in

key projects that will enhance this particular corridor to deliver specific and net total

benefits.

The Golden Highway connects the economic regions of the Hunter and Orana. It plays an

important role in facilitating freight, tourism and employment travel for communities, industries,

and transport nodes that it passes through or is in proximity to. It also supports access to

educational facilities in Newcastle.

This study serves to heighten the profile of the Golden Highway and the need to undertake a

more systematic analysis of the corridor as a precursor for further investment in the corridor to

address emerging safety, amenity and economic needs. A number of transport studies across

the Orana, Central West and Hunter regions identified a long term need to upgrade the Golden

Highway to improve connectivity between Dubbo and Newcastle and also provide an alternate

pathway around the escalating freight task to and from Sydney.

The Golden Highway is a critical section of economic and social infrastructure linking the Orana

and Hunter regions supporting the movement of export commodity flows, and the inbound flow

of goods and services across the region. The Golden Highway also facilitates the movement of

people between Orana, Hunter and the coastal regionals of NSW, for employment, education,

health and tourism.

Although presently a state highway, the Golden Highway performs a nation role as a critical

corridor linking the Newcastle Port with the Orana region in the port’s hinterland, in much the

same way that the Sydney-Dubbo corridor linked Orana with Sydney’s port. Forward freight

projections for the Golden Highway underpin that fact.

The study gives form to a preliminary assessment of the Golden Highway as a precursor to

more comprehensive study to be undertaken to align the analysis and outputs with the Reform

and Investment Framework of Infrastructure Australia (RIF). This study recommends that the

RDA seek approval and funding for detailed work and to present the case for supporting the

systematic upgrade of the Golden Highway through the first of the four-stage process

prescribed under the RIF.

Key freight markets served

Both the Hunter and Orana regions make substantial contributions to the gross regional

products of NSW. The current and ongoing challenge for both regions is taking a longer view of

their economic prospects by promoting diversification within their joint and individual economic

bases.

� The Hunter region accounts for almost half of the value-add that arises from NSW’s coal

mining activities. A further 6% contribution is made by the Orana region.

� Collectively, the Hunter and Orana regions contribute almost a quarter of the state’s value-

add in agriculture, dominated by broadacre cropping and livestock.

� Similarly, the Hunter and Orana regions contribute over a quarter of the state’s value-add

from non-coal mining.

All three of these sectors rely on road freight transport using the Golden Highway, whether for

the purposes of moving inbound supply logistics to mines or farms; or moving outputs for

downstream processing or export. Supporting the connectivity with upstream suppliers and





downstream markets is therefore critical to these sectors and this study emphasises the current

and (potentially) expanded future importance the Golden Highway has within these transport

tasks.

Strategic role in road network

Closer inspection of the Golden Highway within the context of the NSW road network reveals a

number of key observations:

� The well-developed north–south corridors within the NSW road network are the Hume

Highway, New England Highway and Newell Highway.

� Highways in the north that support east–west flows (Gwydir and Bruxner Highways) have

poor alignments or gradients affected by the Great Dividing Range topography.

� Further south between the coast and the Newell Highway, the principal east–west corridors

have been the Great Western Highway and the northern end of the Hume Highway.

The Golden Highway, considered in conjunction with the Hunter Expressway and the M1

Freeway, offers an alternative pathway between Dubbo and Sydney with capacity to lift some of

the most significant efficiency and safety impediments and limitations associated with routes

that are more commonly being used at present. Although viable, reaching that point requires

further investment and development of the Golden Highway.

Chief advantages in promoting the Golden Highway as part of an alternative pathway between

Dubbo and Sydney include:

� Freight operators have indicated that such an alternative would be beneficial given the

opportunity to operate 25 metre B-Doubles instead of the 19 metre B-Doubles associated

with the Great Western Highway.

� Use of the Golden Highway avoids congestion associated with the Blue Mountains and

he operating restrictions that arise with steep grades at Mt Victoria and River Lett Hill on

the Great Western Highway.





� The alternative route along the Golden Highway avoids the busy townships of Lithgow,

Bathurst and Orange.

The expanding transport task on the Golden Highway

The eastern end of Golden Highway carries over 5,000 vehicles per day. Moving westward this

falls to around 2,500 vehicles per day near Mt Thorley and Denman and then further westward

again, declining to under 2,000 vehicles per day near towns situated between Merriwa and

Dunedoo. At the western end, vehicle traffic is around 2,000 vehicles per day increasing

markedly when approaching or near Dubbo to around 5,000 vehicles per day.

Across the full range of freight commodities being carried on the Golden Highway, the freight

task is estimated to be around 2 Mtpa at the eastern end of the corridor and around 1 Mtpa at

the western end. By 2031, this task is forecast to grow to around 5 Mtpa at the eastern end

(more than double the current) and 1.5 Mtpa (almost double the current level) at the western

end.

Almost one-quarter of the traffic on the corridor are heavy vehicles indicating the emerging

importance of the Golden Highway as a key freight pathway to and from Newcastle. While total

vehicle traffic varies along the corridor, the proportion of heavy vehicles as a percentage of the

total remains fairly constant between Singleton and Dunedoo; around 20-22% of the total traffic

stream. This increases marginally to 26% between Dunedoo and Wellington.

The heavy truck traffic is forecast to grow to around 1,000 trucks per day (or almost 50 trucks

per hour) by 2031, concurrent with an increasing passenger vehicle demand rising from 1,500 to

2,500 vehicles per day.

Golden Highway deficiencies to be addressed

The Golden Highway has potential capacity to carry increased traffic volumes although other

factors like safety measures, alignments and passing opportunities need to be addressed as

part of that equation. The current and emerging deficiencies of the corridor are:

� Peaking in traffic demand occurs at times on the eastern end of the corridor.

� Since 2008, there has been an average 65 crashes per year on the Golden Highway with

around half involving injury or death.





� There are very limited opportunities for overtaking, especially east of the Great Dividing

Range where road alignments vary markedly.

� Although the highway is generally approved for B-Doubles, there is a need to further

examine access restrictions and safety, particularly for level crossings and bridges.

� Further analysis is needed to determine pavement conditions and structure to identify

maintenance requirements.

� The portion of the corridor crossing the Great Dividing Range is of lower standard than

the remainder of the corridor.

� Townships such as Denman need to be bypassed to avoid safety and amenity impacts

from the increasing numbers of heavy vehicles.

It is the combination of these factors that drive the need for a more detailed assessment of the

Golden Highway in pursuit of an improved national road network.





2 OVERVIEW

This review of the Golden Highway was undertaken for the Hunter and Orana Regional

Development Australia offices, both of whom have identified the strategic need to promote state

and commonwealth investment into the Golden Highway.

2.1 Background

The Golden Highway, ‘State Route 84’, connects the economic regions of the Hunter and Orana

and provides a significant conduit for people and goods moving between key townships and

freight nodes. Modelling of current and future passenger and freight flows suggests that it is,

and will remain, comparable to other key corridors within the NSW transport network.

Despite the study highlighting significant drivers that support a strategic investment approach, it

has also called attention to a noticeable gap in any systematic analysis of the Golden Highway

particularly in these respects:

� As an important east–west link that complements the state and regional road network as

a whole;

� Providing an alternative pathway for journeys to/from Sydney and Newcastle that could

alleviate traffic flows on the Great Western Highway; and

� When considered together with the Hunter Expressway and the New England Highway,

the Golden Highway links the Port of Newcastle with its hinterland markets in mining,

agriculture and general freight. The Golden Highway also connects regional communities

and facilitates people accessing health, education and tourism centres and services.

Recent studies assessing transport needs of the Central West and Lower Hunter regions have

identified a long term need to upgrade the Golden Highway to improve connectivity between the

Central West of NSW and Newcastle and also provide an alternate pathway around the

escalating freight task to and from Sydney. Similarly, the Golden highway will improve the

economic link of the Orana and Hunter regions

At the same time, freight markets within close proximity to the Golden Highway have also

experienced fundamental changes that affect decisions about transport pathway and mode. It is

anticipated that over the next 20 years, these changes will elevate the volume of road freight on

the Golden Highway.

2.2 Purpose of Study

This study highlights the relative importance of the Golden Highway within the state and

national network of transport corridors and for providing a platform to identify and invest

in key projects that will enhance this particular corridor to deliver specific and net total

benefits.

A chief undertaking of the study was to summarise existing deficiencies while presenting the

current capital works program earmarked to address some of the chief constraints. Equally

important was assessing the current and emerging transport markets served by this corridor as

the context for why, how and when strategy investment might be recommended.





Reform and Investment Framework

This study gives form to a preliminary assessment of the Golden Highway as a precursor to

more comprehensive study being undertaken to align the analysis and outputs with the Reform

and Investment Framework of Infrastructure Australia (RIF).

The Golden Highway is a state highway, not a national highway. The IA framework generally

seeks to address funding for national infrastructure projects, or projects that relate to national

policies such as the National Freight or National Port strategies. This study will show that

despite being a state highway, the Golden Highway forms a critical corridor linking the

Newcastle Port with the Orana region in the port’s hinterland, in much the same way that the

Sydney-Dubbo corridor links Orana with Sydney’s port. Forward freight projections for the

Golden Highway underpin that fact.

This study recommends that the RDA seek approval for detailed work and to present the case

for supporting the systematic upgrade of the Golden Highway through the first of the four-stage

process prescribed under RIF (see below)1.

The four stages of project development are referred to as: (a) Early Stage project; (b) Real

Potential projects; (c) Threshold projects; and (d) Ready to Proceed projects.

Directing projects through this process not only lets the project attributes become more clearly

illuminated but ensures its justification within a broader context that includes alignment with the

key Infrastructure Australia (IA) themes. Submissions are made on an annual basis and all

undergo a preliminary assessment.

Figure 1 - Outline of Reform and Investment Framework with Infrastructure Australia2

1 Refer to Appendix for tasks description for Early Stage projects (Stage 1)

2 Source: Hyder (2012) based on process description in 2012 COAG submission.





2.3 The role of the Golden Highway

One end of the Golden Highway starts at the junction with the New England Highway (between

Branxton and Singleton), and ends at the Newell Highway in Dubbo. In between, the highway

passes through Denman, Merriwa and Dunedoo. The highway is 314 kilometres long and

traverses the local government areas of Singleton, Muswellbrook, Upper Hunter Shire and

Warrumbungle Shire.

As a transport corridor, it plays an important role in facilitating the movement of freight,

tourism and employment for communities, industries, processing and transport nodes

that it passes through or is in proximity to, and also supports access to educational

facilities in Newcastle.

Ongoing and longer term changes to the nature of production and distribution further

emphasises the need to understand the strategic importance this corridor could have as a

primary freight route.

The Golden Highway is one of two corridors connecting the Orana region to Sydney and

Newcastle, although the Great Western Highway has traditionally carried the majority of traffic to

and from Dubbo. Given the constraints facing the latter, as well as changing freight, vehicle,

production and distribution demand, there is potential for the Golden Highway to become an

alternative pathway linking Sydney with north-west NSW, operating in conjunction with the F3

Freeway and the new Hunter Expressway. Under this scenario, the Golden Highway would

serve to alleviate heavy transport demand operating along the Great Western Highway/Bells

Line of Road corridors and lowering the number of trucks operating through the Blue Mountain

regional communities.

The Golden Highway is also a major access route to the Upper Hunter viticulture sector located

between Putty Road and Merriwa and for tourism links to Dubbo.

Economic infrastructure

Improving the Golden Highway promotes a safe and efficient corridor with the potential to

strengthen the economic relationship between Orana’s agricultural, mining, manufacturing and

service industries with the Hunter’s facilities at the Port of Newcastle and Newcastle Airport.

Road freight demand on this corridor has been estimated to be almost 3 million tonnes at its

eastern end while at its western end, freight volumes are almost 1 million tonnes per annum3.

These volumes are expected to double over the next 20 years.

Key freight movements on the corridor are:

� Export grain and mineral production destined for the Newcastle Port;

� Domestic grain flows originating from west of the Newell Highway bound for food and oil

processors based in Newcastle;

� Mine site inputs to the lower and central Hunter Valley coal mines and other mining

operations in the north and far western regions;

� Road freight movements intended for consolidation at Dubbo before further travelling to the

Northern Territory and North Queensland;

3 NSW Strategic Freight Model





� Livestock inbound to meat processors based in the Hunter area and intended for distribution

from Newcastle to NSW hinterland; and

� Additional reagent movement for Dubbo Zirconia project commencing construction phase

2014.

Figure 2 highlights the locational advantage that the Golden Highway offers with respect to the

service industry and for strengthening ties between the Orana and Hunter regions.

Social infrastructure

Of significant social importance is the role that this corridor plays in linking Newcastle to the

NSW hinterland for the purposes of household travel, general tourism, agri-tourism and

education.

The main population centres within closest proximity to the corridor are Dubbo (41,000 people),

Muswellbrook (17,000 people), Upper Hunter Shire (15,000 people), Warrumbungle Shire

(10,000 people) and Wellington (9,000 people)4.

Around 1.3 million people visit the Orana region each year to see attractions such as Taronga

Western Plains Zoo, Warrumbungle National Park, Mudgee wineries, Wellington caves, the

Siding Spring Observatory and Lightning Ridge opal mines.

The most visited tourist attraction is the Taronga Western Plains Zoo. In 20125, 42.6% of visitors

to the zoo came from Regional NSW including Central Western Region (includes Bathurst and

surrounding areas), North Western Region (includes Dubbo and surrounding area) and Hunter Region (including Newcastle), 25.8% from Sydney, including outer western Sydney, North

Shore and Sutherland, 30.4% from interstate, including QLD and VIC and 1.1% international.

Of relevance to the social travel debate is the fact that the Golden Highway traverses key

horticulture and viticulture regions near Mudgee, adding to its value for links to agri-tourism.

4 These 2012 population estimates are sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

5 Destination NSW (Year ended March 2013 Statistics)

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3 PAST ASSESSMENTS

In stark contrast to the Great Western Highway, there has been far less literature and detailed

studies looking into the Golden Highway despite its potential. Other than the list of direct and

indirect references that follows there are no further studies or research on the Golden Highway.

However, recently a number of stakeholders have expressed the value of the Golden Highway

particularly as a means of linking the Orana and Hunter Regions. Part of the recommendation

of this study is correcting that imbalance, so that this potential is not only acknowledged but can

be realised and leveraged in due time with appropriately detailed investigation and strategic

development that complements plans for the wider transport network.

Hunter Economic Infrastructure Plan

This recent study6 identified the role of the Golden Highway as a critical corridor for road based

inbound logistics destined for the central and southern Hunter Valley coal mines,

complementary to similar flows presently occurring along the New England Highway. It reported

that by 2031, inbound mining freight flows on the Golden Highway will grow to around

2.7 Mtpa7. It further identified the critical constraints around townships, bridges and mine site

access intersections and the need to address associated safety concerns. A range of projects

that are needed to address these safety and efficiency issues were identified.

Lower Hunter over the Next 20 years

This discussion paper8 is the first step in a review of the existing Lower Hunter Regional

Strategy released in late 2006. The paper recognised the importance of inbound flows for mine

consumables and the dominance of road transport concentrating around the New England and

Golden Highways.

The Central West Transport Needs Study

This study9 was undertaken to evaluate the appropriateness of existing land transport networks

for meeting the short and long term needs of the Central West. Its preliminary findings were

submitted to IA in late 2008 for consideration as part of its National Infrastructure Audit.

The report referenced the Golden Highway in its capacity to accommodate B-Doubles and for

improving linkages to the Port of Newcastle as part the trade flows between the port and Central

West NSW. This importantly highlighted the potential for the Golden Highway to provide an

alternative preferred route particularly for northward movement from Bathurst towards

Newcastle.

It is worth noting that this particular study included stakeholder consultation that earmarked the

upgrade of the Golden Highway as a priority project for improving linkages into Newcastle and

in particular the Dubbo to Newcastle journey.

6 Hunter Economic Infrastructure Plan; Hyder Consulting (2013) for Infrastructure NSW

7 Mtpa = million tonnes per annum

8 Lower Hunter over the Next 20 Years – a discussion paper; NSW Government; March 2013; RTA/Pub. 10.012; ISBN

978-1-921692-69-7

9 Central West Transport Needs Study; SKM (2008) for the Commonwealth Department of Transport and Regional

Economics and the NSW Government





Demand for Freight and B-Triple access in the Dubbo-Newcastle Corridor

This 2007 RTA (now the RMS) study10

followed from a request by the Australian Road Train

Association to assess the viability of upgrading the Golden Highway in order to accommodate

B-Triple road train operations.

The Golden Highway received highway status in 1997 and was subsequently approved for use

by B-Double vehicles (up to 26 metres length) and as an approved High Mass Limits (HML)

route.

Although this study identified considerable freight flows travelling the corridor, it concluded that

there was insufficient commercial justification for upgrading it to accommodate highway B-Triple

access. A key driver for this conclusion was the inadequate road train assembly areas available

near Newcastle at the time and ‘last mile’ constraints that were then persistent between

assembly areas and the journey origins/destinations.

The Lower Hunter Transport Needs Study

This 2008 study commissioned by the Commonwealth and NSW transport agencies assessed

current (at that time) and future passenger and freight transport demand across the Lower

Hunter area. The work represented a substantial technical assessment and its findings were

later submitted to IA for consideration within its National Infrastructure Audit.

Of particular note were the findings for substantial passenger and freight movements along the

New England Highway between Beresfield and Branxton. It was in part because of these

findings that the Hunter Expressway was subsequently approved with construction due for

completion in December 2013. The Hunter Expressway links he northern end of the M1

Expressway to the new England Highway at Branxton and bypasses a number of communities

including Greta.

RTA (RMS) Strategy for Major Heavy Vehicle Rest Areas on Key Rural Freight Routes in NSW

In 2005, the National Transport Commission released the National Guidelines for the Provision

of Rest Area Facilities (NTC Guidelines)11

, which were adopted by the RTA (now the RMS) as

the yardstick for auditing heavy vehicle rest area facilities located on key rural freight routes in

NSW. Nine such routes were identified—the Golden Highway being one—and a relevant needs

summary was produced.

Along with the audit, the RMS also developed an strategy based on the guideline definitions

designating areas as offering facilities to accommodate long rest and sleep breaks. The Golden

Highway currently has two rest areas. Five additional sites have been identified for

enhancement.

10

Demand for freight and B-triple access in Dubbo–Newcastle corridor; Sd+D (2007) for the NSW Roads and Traffic

Authority

11 RTA Strategy for Major Heavy Vehicle Rest Areas on Key Rural Freight Routes in NSW; Jan-2010; RTA/Pub. 10.012;

ISBN 978-1-921692-69-7





4 IMPORTANT REGIONAL PROFILES

The Golden Highway spans two important NSW regions, namely the Orana and Hunter regions.

Orana is well situated to serve the east coast of Australia with the Newell Highway providing a

connection between Queensland and Victoria via NSW. Within the west–east orientation, the

orientation of the Golden Highway facilitates the flow of people and goods between Orana and

the NSW coastal regions and ports. Connectivity between Orana and Australia’s far-east is

critical for regional economic development, especially within mining and agriculture.

For the Hunter and Orana regions, the current development focus remains on future planning

and in particular, supporting and encouraging businesses to capitalise on the growth of the

mining industry while improving infrastructure networks and connectivity between the ports and

its hinterland and western catchment areas.

The current and ongoing challenge for both regions is taking a longer view of their economic

prospects by promoting diversification within their joint and individual economic bases.

4.1 Orana region

The Orana region located in the Central West and North West of NSW is the largest region in

the state, comprising a catchment from over 40% of its total land area. The region extends from

the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range (including the Warrumbungle Ranges in the

east) to the flat plains of Cobar and Bourke in the west, and northward to the Queensland

border.

The Orana region has a population of 115,600 people with major towns and centres in Cobar,

Dubbo and Mudgee. Dubbo, Mid-Western, Warrumbungles and Wellington are the local

government areas nearest to the Golden Highway and account for around 70% of the region’s

economic activity. Despite its distance from the coast, the region provides many improved

qualities of life in addition to affordable housing, comfortable climate and increasing employment

opportunities.

It is the most diverse region in the state with major sectors crossing agriculture, mining, health

and community sectors, finance and insurance, viticulture and tourism interests. The sectors

generating the most freight flows across the region are largely centred around Dubbo City and

account for a value-add of around 40% of the total for the Orana region.





Figure 3 – The extensive reach and land area scale of the Orana Region within the state context

� Agriculture is the predominant industry with 86% of Orana’s land area being engaged in

agricultural use; equivalent to 27% of agricultural land in NSW. It is worth over A$850 million

in agricultural commodities per annum or 11% of state agricultural production. A large

proportion of the average crop is used locally for livestock and in flour mills with some export

grains being moved to the nearest grain port in Newcastle. Based on a 9 year data-set of

grain storage by the major bulk handlers in the area, only 44% of a typical annual tonnage

breakdown of grain supply of 904,000 tonnes is moved to Newcastle for export. Fifty-six

percent (56%) of the grain received into bulk storage is consumed locally for livestock and

flour mills.

Over 20 percent of regional employment is associated with the agricultural industry.

� Livestock and meat processing (predominantly cattle and sheep) is highly developed

within Oran and is further supported by large-scale feedlot activities. Fletchers Meats in

Dubbo is highly regarded for its scale, processing efficiency and export sales, and

necessitates access to key transport corridors for both inbound and outbound goods flows.

� Mining is well established in this region with copper, zinc and gold in Cobar and coal in

Mudgee. New investments such as the Tomingley Gold (Narromine) and Dubbo Zirconia

projects were brought about by the commodities boom. Growing coal and minerals

extraction will generate its own high inputs for construction and operation with resulting

impact on inbound and outbound transport flows.

In terms of adding value, the Orana region represents almost 12% of the state’s mining

sector.

� Manufacturing within the Orana region is a small sector but one that is considered highly

efficient with a turnover of around A$320m per annum. It is concentrated around food and

beverages, wood products, mineral products and fabricated metal.

ORANA REGION





� Horticulture/viticulture production is a growing industry with emerging opportunities for

niched/gourmet food/beverage production that is intrinsically linked to tourism. An

accompanying reduction in wine production is anticipated.

� Natural wonders abound in the region and already attract 1.8 million visitors annually.

These attractions include: the Warrumbungle National Park and Macquarie Marshes; Bourke

and the Darling River; the opal mining township of Lightning Range; the Taronga Western

Plains Zoo in Dubbo; the Mudgee area wineries.

� The Orana region is also home to a rich Aboriginal culture with increasing recognition for

associated opportunities in the niche indigenous tourism market.

4.2 Hunter region

The Hunter region has one of Australia’s largest regional populations and encompasses 11

local government areas. The major cities/centres are Cessnock, Lake Macquarie, Maitland,

Newcastle, Port Stephens, and including Dungog, Gloucester, Great Lakes, Muswellbrook,

Singleton and Upper Hunter.

The region’s strengths are its rich resource base in coal and natural water resources; its

significant electricity generation capacity; an innovative manufacturing sector; and progressive

business culture.

The Hunter accounts for more than 32% of the state’s exports, inclusive of coal, mining

services, products and equipment, as well as fresh food, processed food and wine. Over time,

the regional employment base has progressed from domination by heavy industry to a

diversified resource, services and business powerhouse.

Figure 4 - The Hunter Region economic powerhouse

HUNTER

REGION





The Hunter is positioned strongly as a world-class regional centre and significant freight

generating/attracting region in particular in association with heavy manufacturing and mining

activities. Although the majority of the freight circulates internally within the Hunter statistical

division, a considerable volume moves to and from the north and central-west sectors of NSW.

Major industries in the region include coal and mining, viticulture and winemaking, power

generation, equine industries, defence and aerospace, manufacturing, agribusiness and

tourism.

� The regional economy is dominated by the mining sector, whose influence penetrates all

spheres of socio-economic, government and community strategy and development. The coal

industry produces A$10 billion a year with 97 million tonnes exported annually, which makes

up 94% of the region’s total exports.

� As one of Australia’s top wine growing areas, the Hunter region produces 25.4 million litres

of wine annually valued at more than A$203 million per annum.

� Sixty percent of the state’s electricity is generated by four power stations located in the

Hunter region.

� The agribusiness industry is valued at over $1 billion annually and includes agriculture,

horticulture, timber/paper products, aquaculture, food processing and products

manufacturing.

� The Hunter region is home to major military bases and sophisticated defence infrastructure.

It also serves as a maintenance base for major aerospace companies.

� Other regional industries and facilities of note include research and education facilities,

world-class equine industries, as well as vibrant cultural and tourism opportunities that

enhance the quality of lifestyle for its population. Proximity and easy access from Sydney is

further helping to boost regional tourism.

4.3 Economic Contribution to NSW

Both the Hunter and Orana regions make substantial contributions to the gross regional

products of NSW.

Table 1 presents the value-add contribution12

of each region expressed as a percentage of the

‘balance of NSW’ i.e. excluding Sydney and the Central Coast. The gross regional product

(GRP) for NSW totals around A$430 billion, whereas the balance of NSW is A$216 billion. The

value-add contribution from the Hunter region is therefore around A$58 billion while for Orana is

almost A$10 billion.

12

Value-add is defined as the value created by each stage of production across the various sectors minus the cost of

inputs and labour used to create that value





Table 1 - Value add in RDA Hunter and Orana expressed as percentage of the ‘balance of NSW’

(excluding Sydney and Central Coast)13

Sector Hunter as a % of rest of

NSW

Orana as a % of rest of

NSW

Agriculture 15.5% 9.0%

Coal Mining 47.7% 6.0%

Other Mining 15.4% 11.7%

Construction 25.5% 3.4%

Wholesale 31.5% 5.2%

Retail 20.9% 3.8%

Hospitality 25.2% 3.8%

Transport and storage 39.3% 3.1%

Total 26.8% 4.6%

Some salient results from Table 1 are as follows.

� The Hunter region accounts for almost half of the value-add that arises from NSW’s coal

mining activities. A further 6% contribution is made by the Orana region.

� Collectively, the Hunter and Orana regions contribute almost a quarter of the state’s value-

add in agriculture, dominated by broadacre cropping and livestock.

� Similarly, the Hunter and Orana regions contribute over a quarter of the state’s value-add

from non-coal mining.

All three rely partly on road freight transport using the Golden Highway, whether for the

purposes of moving inbound supply logistics to mines or farms; or moving outputs for

downstream processing or export.

Supporting the connectivity with upstream suppliers and downstream markets is

therefore critical to these sectors and this study emphasises the current and (potentially)

expanded future importance the Golden Highway has within these transport tasks.

13

Scoping of Golden Highway Analysis (2013), report prepared for Hyder Consulting by Western Research Institute





Employment

A number of industry sectors (as defined by the ABS) directly attract and/or generate freight

across the Orana and Hunter regions14

, namely: agriculture; mining; manufacturing; wholesale;

transport postal; warehousing. The number of employees associated with these sectors in the

Orana and Hunter regions (excluding Newcastle) totals more than 46,000 based on ABS

statistics.

Table 2 - Employment by sector across Orana and Hunter (excluding Newcastle)

Orana Hunter excluding

Newcastle

% Employees % Employees

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 13.5 6,492 3.4 3,648

Mining 4 1,924 9.2 9,870

Manufacturing 4.5 2,164 10.1 10,836

Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste

Services 1.6 769 1.7 1,824

Construction 5.8 2,789 7.9 8,476

Wholesale Trade 3 1,443 2.9 3,111

Retail Trade 10.6 5,097 10.7 11,480

Accommodation & Food Services 6.9 3,318 7.9 8,476

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 4.2 2,020 4.3 4,613

Information Media &

Telecommunications 0.8 385 0.7 751

Financial & Insurance Services 1.6 769 1.7 1,824

Rental, Hiring, & Real Estate Services 0.9 433 1.6 1,717

Professional Scientific & Technical

Services 3.1 1,491 4.3 4,613

Administrative & Support Services 2.3 1,106 3.1 3,326

Public Administration & Safety 7.8 3,751 6.3 6,759

Education & Training 9.1 4,376 6.1 6,544

Health Care & Social Assistance 13.2 6,348 10.2 10,943

Arts & Recreation Services 1.2 577 1.1 1,180

Other services 3.8 1,827 4.8 5,150

Total

47,078

105,140

Source: ABS Regional Profile data based on 2011 Census

14

In this case, the employment numbers associated with the Hunter exclude Newcastle





5 THE TRANSPORT TASK

The Golden Highway currently provides access between Far West, Orana, Central NSW, and

Hunter with Sydney for the purposes of passenger and freight transport. It has a limited role in

providing for connectivity to interstate destinations.

5.1 A Network Perspective

The Golden Highway is the most viable east–west link to connect Newcastle with its hinterland

and also offers an alternative to the Great Western Highway for the Newcastle–Sydney

passenger and freight traffic flows.

Figure 5 shows the Golden Highway within the context of the NSW road network. Closer

inspection of this revealed these key observations:

� The well-developed north–south corridors within the NSW road network are the Hume

Highway, New England Highway and Newell Highway.

� Highways in the north that support east–west flows (Gwydir and Bruxner Highways) have

poor alignments or gradients affected by the Great Dividing Range topography.

� Further south between the coast and the Newell Highway, the principal east–west corridors

have been the Great Western Highway and the northern end of the Hume Highway.

� B-Doubles and semi-trailers travelling the Great Western Highway are restricted to a

maximum 19 metres, making them less efficient than 25 metre long B-Doubles that can be

accommodated elsewhere in the freight network. In contrast, the Golden Highway can offer

an alternative route for 25 metre long B-Doubles seeking to travel between Sydney and

Dubbo.

5.2 Freight Volumes

The Orana and Hunter regions generate and attract a substantial volume of road freight within

NSW with the chief contributing sectors being (listed in section 4.3): agriculture; mining;

manufacturing; wholesale; transport postal; warehousing.Table 4 and Table 5 in the Appendices

shows the freight volumes by region and commodity type for the years 2011 and 2031

respectively.

The Golden Highway supports the road movement of grains, forestry and mining products

between Newcastle, North Western, Central Western and Far West areas. The current volume

of freight on this corridor is estimated to be up to 2.6 Mtpa and by 2031 is forecast to be around

5 Mtpa, specifically encompassing:

� Moving grain products from western NSW for processing and/or packing and then for supply

to domestic or export markets;

� Moving other agricultural produce destined for export and domestic consumption;

� Moving non-coal minerals from north-western NSW for export via Newcastle or Sydney;

� Distributing goods destined for domestic and industrial consumption and for use as

agricultural inputs within north western NSW;

� Long distance road line-haul movements between Newcastle to North Queensland and the

Northern Territory.





Figure 5 – Strategic relevance of the Golden Highway for the NSW Road Network





5.3 Captive and Contestable Freight

Freight flows across the region can be considered as either ‘captive of’ or ‘contestable by’ the

Golden Highway. Table 3 presents 2001 freight demands and 2031 forecast demands for

captive and contestable freight volumes as it pertains to the Golden Highway.

Captive freight for the corridor includes movement between the Hunter, Central West, North

Western and Far West regions where the Golden Highway represents the shortest possible

pathway. Captive freight is estimated around 2.7 Mtpa, equivalent to more than 380 loaded

truck movements per day15

. By 2031, this is forecast to grow to around 5.3 Mtpa, equivalent to

around 750 trucks per day.

Contestable freight for the corridor includes movements between Sydney, Illawarra, North

Western and Far West regions where the Golden Highway represents an alternative pathway to

the Great Western Highway. In 2011, contestable freight was estimated at around 0.8 Mtpa but

is projected to grow to around 1.3 Mtpa by 2031, equivalent to 180 loaded trucks per day. Many

of these trucks do a return journey unladen. The contestable freight can also be considered as

freight that could be removed from the Great Western Highway corridor, which in turn partially

alleviates the growing transport task passing through residential areas of the Blue Mountains.

Table 3 - Nominal captive and contestable freight volumes and equivalent loads for 2011 and 2031

Nominal freight volumes most relevant to Golden Highway

2011 2031

Freight volumes (Mtpa)

Equivalent loads (trucks)

Freight volumes (Mtpa)

Equivalent loads (trucks)

Captive freight 2.7 380 5.3 750

Contestable freight 0.8 115 1.3 200

Total 3.5 115 6.7 115

Figure 6 gives a spatial representation of the same information, namely the 2011 and 2031

freight volumes moving across the wider network, including comparative freight flows on the

Golden Highway.

Figure 6 - Captive and contestable freight around Golden Highway for 2011 and 2031

15

Assumes 26 tonnes carrying capacity per load across 280 working days per annum





Figure 5 and Figure 6 together show that in 2011, volumes on the Golden Highway were

substantially less than the Hume and Pacific Highways, although freight tonnage carried on its

eastern end was comparable to parts of the Newell and Great Western Highways. At its western

end, the Golden Highway carried volumes comparable to that of the Olympic Highway. By 2031,

the forecast freight task on the Golden Highway is expected to be twice the volume observed on

the Newell Highway today. More detailed maps showing freight tonnage across the network in

2011 and 2031 are shown in the next section.

5.4 Key Commodities

Mining and inbound flows

The Newcastle Port Corporation has forecast coal exports from the port to exceed

250 million tonnes per annum by 202016

. Growth in Hunter region coal exports will substantially

increase the inbound mining related freight task along the New England Highway and the

Golden Highway.

While the dominant coal mining transport flow is outbound towards the Port of Newcastle, coal

mining required inbound flows (fuel, nitrates, equipment and other consumables) are needed for

construction and operational needs. These inbound products do not lend themselves to

movement by rail given the fragmented transport task and procurement volumes involved.

The scale of inbound logistics generally has a correlation with coal production and represents

about 2–3% of outbound flows. These inbound flows are principally sourced through Newcastle

and delivered by road to the Hunter, Upper Hunter, Gunnedah and Ulan coal regions with

delivery occurring mainly via the New England and Golden Highways.

The Ulan region extending to Dunedoo is forecast to grow substantially over coming decades,

albeit expansion has been temporarily curtailed with the decision to halt the Cobbora mine.

Although it is expected to concentrate at its eastern end, the Golden Highway is still forecast to

carry around one-third of the inbound road based freight flows associated with coal mining.

The volume of mining related inbound logistics flows along the Golden Highway is

presently around 1.2 Mtpa and forecast to grow to 2.7 Mtpa by 203117

.

General distribution flows

The population of regional NSW requires access to food and other consumer goods that are

distributed via retail outlets in most regional towns.

Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) are generally inventoried within capital cities with some

food retailers also operating regional warehouses near Newcastle. Distributing these goods

happens on a ‘just in time’ basis with a high frequency of replenishment done by truck and in

many instances, on a daily basis.

Population and proximity to skilled workforce are the key drivers for where distribution hubs are

located. Newcastle is seen as a particularly important (regional) node for supporting the rapid

replenishment of outlets in the North Coast and North Western NSW. The Golden Highway is

seen as a corridor that augments this process.

16

It should be noted that this incorporates factors such as China’s economy at the time and access to new markets as

relevant to the forecast.

17 Hunter Economic Infrastructure Plan (Hyder) prepared for Infrastructure NSW and Regional Development Australia





Newcastle is a key hub for storing and distributing fuel, cement and general freight to the grain

and non-mining sectors, inclusive of deliveries to the Orana region.

Grain and fertiliser

NSW is a substantial grain growing region producing between 4 and 8 million tonnes of grain

annually, depending on climatic conditions. Around two-thirds of this volume is exported through

ports in Newcastle and Port Kembla. This is achieved predominantly by rail, although road

transport supplements the task for shorter hauls.

The balance of the grain production is destined for domestic human consumption and for

feedlots associated with beef production. Transport to domestic grain markets is mostly by road

in view of the widely dispersed network of flour mills, industrial processing sites and feedlots.

Where grain needs to be transported from the Orana region to Newcastle (and then to the port),

it occurs via the Golden Highway. A large grain processing plant is also located on Kooragang

Island in Newcastle. Analysis of road freight movements in the grain sector indicates a highly

variable transport task, and the volume of grain moving along the Golden Highway to domestic

customers or the export port is estimated to be 200,000-300,000 tonnes per annum, equivalent

to 25-40 loaded truck movement per day. In many instances the trucks return as an empty

movement, therefore the total number of truck movements attributed to the grain sector is

around 50-80 per day on the Golden Highway.

Newcastle is also a production hub for nitrate, which is transported by road into the grain belt for

that sector to use as fertiliser. There are two delivery peaks associated with this, namely ahead

of the winter and summer growing seasons. Much of the volume is transported to the Orana

region via the Golden Highway, mainly as backloads for trucks delivering grain to Newcastle.

An aggregated view


task is estimated to be around 2 Mtpa at the eastern end of the corridor and around 1 Mtpa at

the western end. By 2031, this task is forecast to grow to around 5 Mtpa at the eastern end

(more than double the current) and 1.5 Mtpa (almost double the current level) at the

western end.

More detailed maps showing freight tonnage across the network in 2011 and 2031 are shown in

the following pages. The values are expressed in thousands of tonnes and derived from various

freight studies undertaken over the last five years.

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5.5 Traffic on the Corridor

The previous section of this study focused on an overview of the freight volume on the Golden

Highway in contrast to this section, which focuses on the current and forecast traffic levels for

passenger and heavy vehicles specifically. Freight volumes presented in this section indicate

truck movements, whether involved with loaded or unloaded trips, and are more reflective of

demand on the corridor.

Current Annual Average Daily Traffic

Traffic demand along the Golden Highway varies markedly, especially in respect of passenger

and heavy vehicles.

For passenger vehicles, the eastern end of the corridor carries over 5,000 vehicles daily but

further westward, this falls to around 2,500 vehicles daily observed near Mt Thorley and

Denman. In the vicinity of towns between Merriwa and Dunedoo the, it falls to under

2,000 vehicles per day. At the western end of the corridor, passenger vehicle traffic is around

2,000 vehicles daily, increasing markedly at, or near, Dubbo to around 5,000 vehicles daily.

For heavy vehicles, traffic along the corridor varies from around 250 to over 900 vehicles per

day.

The volume profile of the corridor is shown in Figure 11, ‘AADT Counts in 2013’.

Heavy Vehicle Volumes

Almost one-quarter of the traffic on the corridor are heavy vehicles indicating the emerging

importance of the Golden Highway as a key freight pathway to and from Newcastle.

While total vehicle traffic varies along the corridor, the proportion of heavy vehicles as a

percentage of the total remains fairly constant between Singleton and Dunedoo; around

20-22% of the total traffic stream. This increases marginally to 26% between Dunedoo

and Wellington.

Heavy truck traffic varies on a seasonal basis in association with clearing grain harvest volumes

to Newcastle between November and February.

15%

18%

21%

24%

27%

30%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

% H

eavy

Veh

icle

Co

mp

osi

tio

n

Distance from New England Highway Junction (km)

Proportion of heavy vehicle traffic

Singleton DenmanMerriwa

Dunedoo

DubboMt Thorley Sandy Hollow

Wellington

Figure 9 - Heavy Vehicles as a Proportion of Total Traffic Volume





Forecast traffic growth rates

Traffic on the corridor has been growing at around 1% annually over the period 1998-2010. This

growth rate increases to 2% at each end of the corridor.

Figure 10 shows the estimated traffic growth rates observed for the various road sections along

the corridor.

Figure 10 Traffic Growth Trends along the Corridor

For the purposes of estimating future traffic on the Golden Highway, this study applied the

growth rates to light vehicles only. A separate rate has been applied to heavy vehicles, taking

into consideration the expectation for doubling of the freight task by 2031. The forecast future

growth in AADT18

for the Golden Highway is depicted graphically in Figure 12.

A key highlight to take away from these figures is that heavy truck traffic is forecast to

grow to around 1,000 trucks per day (or almost 50 trucks per hour) by 2031, concurrent

with an increasing passenger vehicles demand rising from 1,500 to 2,500 vehicles per

day.

18

AADT means annual average daily total

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5.6 Corridor capacity analysis

The Golden Highway, when considered together with the M1 Freeway and the Hunter

Expressway, offers an alternative pathway for the journey between Sydney and Dubbo.

Currently, passenger and freight vehicles generally travel this journey via Bathurst and Orange

using the Great Western Highway, which analysis shows is at capacity at its eastern end.

Selective upgrading of the Golden Highway (e.g. improved passing lanes, town bypasses)

undertaken concurrently with completion of the Hunter Expressway has the potential to divert

some demand away from the Great Western Highway. Understanding the general scale of this

potential is assisted by examining the volume capacity of the Golden Highway.

Volume Capacity Ratio (VCR)

The nominal capacity of any corridor can be determined by its physical road attributes, such as

the number of lanes, its terrain and design speed. One key measure that captures this is the

volume capacity ratio (VCR). This is defined as the comparison of traffic volume observed in a

one-hour peak period compared with the theoretical capacity of that corridor.

The theoretical capacity used in this study was based on nominated one-hour capacities

corresponding to different road types provided in Austroads’ Guide to Traffic Management (Part

3: Traffic Studies and Analysis).

Where the ratio is greater than 1 during a peak hour period, the road is operating above its

nominal capacity. A VCR less than 1 is indicative of some spare capacity during the peak hour.

In the assessment of the Golden Highway, the VCR was estimated using two-way volumes for

the majority of the route and one-way volumes on the four-lane sections at the western end

towards Dubbo. This approach is consistent with the Austroads capacity calculations for

uninterrupted two-lane, two-way roads and uninterrupted multi-lane roads respectively.

The peak hour volume at locations along the Golden Highway corridor was estimated based on

an assumed proportion of 7% based on observed relationships between peak hour volumes and

AADT19

. It should be noted however, that peak hour traffic volumes cannot grow indefinitely

and will be constrained by the road capacity. It would be expected that in future, the proportion

of AADT that is observed during the peak hour would decrease, such that the peak will ’spread’

and traffic volumes are higher for a longer period of time. Where the VCR exceeds 1, it may

therefore be taken as an indication that demand exceeds capacity.

VCR analysis of Golden Highway

Figure 13 shows the current and forecast VCR for the Golden Highway in the years 2013 and

2031. Referring to the peak times shown on the graph, it is evident that the first 10 kilometres of

the corridor starting from the New England Highway (New England Highway to Mitchell Line

Road) is currently near capacity and will exceed capacity in 2031. For the majority of the Golden

Highway corridor between Mt Thorley and Dubbo, the VCR result indicates there is latent

capacity at present and in the future, the VCR value are expected to be between 0.2 and 0.5.

These findings supports the expectation that Golden Highway has potential capacity to

carry increased traffic volumes although other factors like safety measures, alignments

and passing opportunities need to be addressed as part of that equation.

19

Peak hour calculations generally use a benchmark of 7-10% of the daily volume on the corridor being analysed.





Figure 13 – Current and future volume capacity ratio for Golden Highway

VCR analysis of Great Western Highway

In contrast, the observed VCR for the Great Western Highway denotes demand exceeding

capacity at the eastern end of this corridor between Blaxland and Katoomba. This part in

particular carries considerable passenger and freight traffic and also serves as the principal

access corridor for the City of Blue Mountains community.

Figure 14 shows the current and future VRC for the Great Western Highway.

Figure 14 - Current and future volume capacity ratio for Great Western Highway

VRC analysis of the eastern end of the

Great Western Highway shows

demand exceeding capacity both now

and into future.





The analysis has not determined the proportion of traffic on the Great Western Highway (within

the vicinity of the Blue Mountains) that has an its origin or intended destination as Dubbo.

Anecdotal evidence suggests however, that the Great Western Highway is the preferred route

given the current comparative attributes of the Golden Highway and the New England Highway

between Branxton and Beresfield.

Promoting alternative pathways between Sydney and Dubbo

The Golden Highway, considered in conjunction with the Hunter Expressway and the M1

Freeway, offers an alternative pathway between Dubbo and Sydney with capacity to lift some of

the most significant efficiency and safety impediments and limitations associated routes that are

more commonly being used at present. Although viable, reaching that point requires further

investment and development of the Golden Highway.

Some chief advantages in promoting the Golden Highway as part of an alternative pathway

between Dubbo and Sydney are as follows.

� Freight operators20

have indicated that such an alternative would be beneficial given the

opportunity to operate 25 metre B-Doubles instead of the 19 metre B-Doubles associated

with the Great Western Highway.

� The alternative route introduces around an extra 100 kilometres to total journey but

avoids the congestion associated with the Blue Mountains.

� The more consistent terrain along the alternative pathway avoids the operating

restrictions that arise with steep grades at Mt Victoria and River Lett Hill on the Great

Western Highway.

� The alternative route avoids the busy townships of Lithgow, Bathurst and Orange.

6 CORRIDOR PROFILE AND PERFORMANCE

6.1 Road Formation and Alignment

The Golden Highway is generally considered to be of equivalent standard to other rural state

highways although its quality is considered to dip in the section between Dunedoo and Merriwa,

where the highway crosses the Great Dividing Range.

The route is mostly a single carriageway, two-lane rural road with limited overtaking

opportunities and minimal sections of dual carriageway. The majority of the road has

1 to 2 metre wide shoulders, with 0.5 to 1 metre wide shoulder seals.

Generally, the highway is signposted at 100 kilometres per hour and operates near this limit for

most of its length. The terrain is generally flat from the east but changes to undulating terrain

towards Cassilis.

There are variable speed environments in the Singleton–Dubbo section, ranging from urban and

other built up areas (speed limit 50 to 80 kilometres per hour) to some rural areas zoned for

100 kilometres per hour depending on the design status of the road, adjacent land uses and

safety considerations.

20

Based on consultation with industry stakeholders





6.2 Bridges and Crossings

There are 60 crossings identified along the route inclusive of four railway level crossings, 12

bridge structures and 44 bridge size culverts (Figure 15). All 12 bridges have been assessed for

heavy vehicle access and are approved for B-Triple and road trains.

Nine of the bridges have carriageway widths of around 7.4 metres wide, which is considered too

narrow for contemporary heavy vehicles. Although the three remaining bridges offer broader

carriageways (8.3 metres to 9.5 metres), these are still narrow against contemporary norms.

The carriageway widths on the crossings range from 7.4 to 11.3 metres but have not been

assessed for heavy vehicle access specifically.

6.3 Overtaking and Passing Lanes

Over the entire route, there are very limited overtaking opportunities with the majority of the

corridor being single-lane in either direction.

There are four locations where the total carriageway width can accommodate the three lanes

needed to provide for overtaking opportunities. These are located in the vicinity of:

� Mt Thorley (chainage km 112-114)

� Merriwa (chainage km 118)

� Borambil (chainage km 161)

� Dubbo (chainage km 314).

6.4 Crashes

In the five-year period from 2008 to 2012, there were over 65 crashes per year on average on

this corridor, including 35 injury crashes and one to two fatalities annually.

For this period, the highest total number of crashes was recorded in 2012. This total

represented a 20% increase in the overall annual number of crashes recorded over the five year

period and was largely attributable to a 40% increase in heavy vehicle crashes recorded

between 2011 to 2012 alone.

0

10

20

30

40

50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Nu

mb

er

of

Cra

sh

es

Year

Fatal

Injury

Non-casualty

Figure 15 - Total Crashes Recorded for the period 2008 to 2012





Figure 17 shows the location of all crashes (by severity) along the Golden Highway for the

period 2008–2012. A review of these locations shows uniform distribution without concentration

around any specific section or location although in total, more occurrences were recorded on

the eastern half of the corridor past Casillis. Figure 18 shows the location of heavy vehicle

related crashes along the Golden Highway. Similarly the locations of the crashes are dispersed

throughout the corridor.

6.5 Summary

The current and emerging deficiencies of the corridor are summarised here.

� The first 10 kilometres of the Golden Highway is operating at capacity during peak

periods. Although most of it seems to offer spare capacity based on historical growth of

traffic, its future role requires more detailed assessment to determine the potential

infrastructure requirement especially where future changes in vehicle regulations are

likely to have an impact.

� Since 2008, there has been an average 65 crashes per year on the Golden Highway with

around half involving injury or death.

� The Golden Highway offers few opportunities for overtaking, especially east of the Great

Dividing Range where road alignments vary markedly.

� Although the highway is generally approved for B-Doubles, there is a need to further

examine access restrictions and safety, particularly for level crossings and bridges.

� Further analysis is needed to determine pavement conditions and structure to identify

maintenance requirements.

� The portion of the corridor crossing the Great Dividing Range is of lower standard than

the remainder of the corridor.

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7 STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES

Even with the lack of progressive past studies looking into the Golden Highway, this study has

confirmed a number of salient findings to support a more strategic view of its potential

importance and role within the NSW road network. From the regional perspective, this potential

extends from supporting connectivity between key regional centres while more broadly, the

corridor could be enhanced to make a crucial long term contribution to the vigour of key regional

markets linked to both domestic and export consumption.

Supporting connectivity between the Orana and Hunter regions and beyond

The Golden Highway connects two important regions within NSW, namely the Orana and

Hunter regions. Each have their own thriving and emerging industries already making a notable

contribution to regional, national and export markets across various sectors.

The Golden Highway also facilitates west-east flows of people and goods particularly involving

the eastern coastal regions and ports. The long term need to consider this particular piece of the

network connectivity picture from a longer term view has been articulated in a number of other

studies and reinforced with consultation voicing a strong preference to look into development of

alternative pathways with the Golden Highway representing a key factor of that equation.

Taking the long view on freight task solutions

Completed studies assessing the transport needs of the Orana and Lower Hunter regions have

suggested a long term need to improve connectivity between the Dubbo and Newcastle. One

particularly driver is the need to find alternate pathways around the burgeoning freight task

to/from Sydney.

The Golden Highway is one of two corridors that connect the Orana region to Sydney and

Newcastle, the other corridor being the Great Western Highway. When considered in

conjunction with the Hunter Expressway and the M1 Freeway, the potential for the Golden

Highway becomes even clearer particularly as an alternative pathway between Dubbo and

Sydney. Although it adds around 100 kilometres to the total distance (compared to the Great

Western Highway), it offers other notable enticements such as the potential for longer B-

Doubles, as well as more favourable alignments and gradients. In theory at least, this aligns

with the desire of several freight operators to establish an alternative corridor to Dubbo.

The long term aggregate freight task as a key driver


task is estimated at 2 Mtpa on the eastern end and around 1 Mtpa at the western end. By 2031,

this is forecast to grow to around 5 Mtpa at the eastern end and 16 Mtpa at the western end.

Almost one-quarter of the traffic on the Golden Highway are heavy vehicles confirming its

merging importance as a key freight pathway to and from Newcastle.

Heavy truck traffic is forecast to grow to around 1,000 trucks per day (almost 50 trucks per hour)

by 2031, concurrent with an increasing demand of passenger vehicles from 1,500 to 2,500

vehicles daily.

The long term influence of Newcastle as a port for non-coal trade and in particular for exporting

regional commodities is yet to be fully embraced and leveraged by industry both regionally and

beyond. Developing the Golden Highway to handle increased freight flows would enhance

connectivity to regional NSW and thereby support industry to explore this opportunity more fully

while expanding the Port of Newcastle catchment.

Hunter Valley coal production and the inbound logistics factor

Coal production is expected to expand across the Hunter Valley, both in terms of the mined

area and generated volumes. The outbound logistics of this is well served by rail but with





increased production will come growth in road based inbound logistics. The Golden Highway is

anticipated to carry around one-third of the inbound volume and in light of this, presents yet

another consideration for investing in its development.

Shifting grain production centres in Eastern Australia

Changes are being observed in the nature grain production and its distribution along the east

coast of Australia. In particular, domestic human grain consumption and domestic feedlots are

expected to increase over the next two decades accompanied by a decline in overall export

volumes. Greater demand by flour mills, other industrial processes and feedlots (for beef

production) will also alter the grain distribution patterns, particularly with changes in rainfall

patterns expected to drive a northward migration over time.

Similarly, the location of livestock processing (e.g. sale yards and abattoirs) has been changing

with it, the expectation is that associated demands will be met via road freight transport. Both

the Golden Highway and the Newell Highway are anticipated to have increasingly important

roles to play.

Growing and changing passenger vehicle movement

Passenger vehicle movements between Orana and Hunter will continue to increase whether for

general household travel, tourism or access to health and education services in larges centres

like Newcastle and Dubbo. The expanding role of Newcastle Airport for domestic travel is also

an important driver for increasing passenger vehicle demand between the Orana and Hunter

regions.

The eastern end of Golden Highway carries over 5,000 passenger vehicles per day. Moving

westward, this falls to around 2,500 vehicles per day observed near Mt Thorley and Denman

and then further westward again, declining to under 2,000 vehicles per day near towns situated

between Merriwa and Dunedoo. At the far western end, passenger vehicle traffic is around

2,000 vehicles per day increasing markedly when approaching or near Dubbo to around 5,000

vehicles per day.

Planning for improved efficiency, amenity and community costs with resulting safety

benefits

With increasing population and community development along the Great Western Highway,

costs to improve its safety and amenity have accordingly risen. An alternative pathway

consisting of the F3 Freeway, the Hunter Expressway and an upgraded Golden Highway would

alleviate some of this demand, especially for journeys westward to the Orana region. Getting to

this point however, requires detailed investigation and strategic investment to ensure that

delivering an alternative is done with appropriate forethought on adequate safety and amenity

for communities proximal to the highway and for those using it.

These include safer and more overtaking opportunities, town bypasses, provision of adequate

rest areas, as well as selective development to improve road alignment and gradients especially

at the corridor’s eastern end.

Although considered generally comparable to other rural state highways, where the highway

crosses the Great Dividing Range is considered to be of lower quality.





8 APPENDICES

Table 4 - Freight flows by region and commodity in 2011 ('000 tonnes per annum)

Row Labels

Sydney SD Hunter SD Central West

SD Orana / North Western SD

Far West SD Grand Total

Sydney SD Agricultural

58 30 0 0 89

FMCG

961 396 245 1,602

Industrial

1,352 434 118 2 1,907

Mining, related

541 78 619

NES

6 9 1 16

Sydney SD Total 2,378 1,410 443 2 4,232

Hunter SD Agricultural 392

414 300 12 1,119

FMCG 13

13

Industrial 1,246

577 498 0 2,322

Mining, related 849

18 464 1,330

NES 55

55

Hunter SD Total 2,555 1,009 1,262 13 4,838

Central West SD Agricultural 750 115

180 5 1,050

FMCG 2 8

7

17

Industrial 3,880

3,880

Mining, related 78

78

NES 248

248

Central West SD Total 4,959 123 187 5 5,273

Orana / North Western SD Agricultural 93 185 117

4 399

FMCG 13 5 5

22

Industrial Mining, related 93

93

NES 202

202

Orana / North Western SD Total 309 283 121 4 717

Far West SD Agricultural 8 2 4 11

24

FMCG Industrial Mining, related NES Far West SD Total 8 2 4 11 24

Grand Total 7,830 2,785 2,543 1,902 23 15,085

Source: Hyder (2012) – Strategic Freight Model for Transport for NSW





Table 5 - Freight flows by region and commodity in 2031 ('000 tonnes per annum)

Row Labels

Sydney SD Hunter SD Central West

SD Orana / North Western SD

Far West SD Grand Total

Sydney SD Agricultural

104 44 0 0 149

FMCG

1,736 714 443 2,894

Industrial

2,443 784 213 4 3,444

Mining, related

1,185 171 1,356

NES

11 16 1 28

Sydney SD Total

4,294 2,743 829 4 7,871

Hunter SD Agricultural 566

736 539 22 1,864

FMCG 23

23

Industrial 2,251

1,042 900 0 4,193

Mining, related 1,860

39 1,359 3,258

NES 95

95

Hunter SD Total 4,795

1,817 2,798 23 9,433

Central West SD Agricultural 954 141

220 6 1,321

FMCG 4 14

12

30

Industrial 7,008

7,008

Mining, related 171

171

NES 448

448

Central West SD Total 8,585 155

232 6 8,978

Orana / North Western SD Agricultural 119 249 143

5 515

FMCG 24 8 8

40

Industrial Mining, related 204

204

NES 365

365

North Western SD Total 507 461 151

5 1,124

Far West SD Agricultural 10 2 4 13

30

FMCG Industrial Mining, related NES Far West SD Total 10 2 4 13

30

Grand Total 13,897 4,913 4,716 3,872 38 27,435

Source: Hyder (2012) – Strategic Freight Model for Transport for NSW





8.1 Infrastructure Australia Reform and Investment Framework

Proposals assessed in Early Stage of the framework identify a nationally significant problem but the problem analysis, and subsequent identification

or development of the right solution, has only just begun. The following steps are pursued and addressed before proceeding to the next stage of

development.

1. Goal Definition

Goals defined to provide the foundation for problems that need to be addressed as priority and drive the development of solutions.

• Proposal will make a positive contribution to Infrastructure Australia's strategic priorities

• Goals of the proposal are identified with state or regional strategic plans

• Proposal prioritised within state or regional strategic plans

2. Problem Identification

Identify the problems that may hinder the achievement of goals.

• Current and future problem described. Describe what the problem will become in the future if it's not addressed.

• Problem linked back to goals within the state or regional strategy

3. Problem Assessment

Gather data-rich evidence that demonstrates the problem and allows the biggest problems to be prioritised

• Economic, social, and environmental costs estimated qualitatively

4. Problem Analysis

Analyse the extent of problems and their root causes

• Economic, social, and environmental costs estimated qualitatively

5. Option Generation

Develop a range of possible solutions to address the issues including reform and investment proposals

• Not required at this stage

6. Option Assessment

Strategic analysis and cost-benefit analysis to assess the viability of the options


7. Solution Evaluation

Detailed business case for the preferred option including cost-benefit analysis, strategic fit, and deliverability (including cost, risk, and procurement)


Steps in the Reform and Investment Framework

Source: http://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/reform_investment/steps_and_stages/early_stage.aspx

LINKING THE HUNTER AND ORANA REGION€¦ · The eastern end of Golden Highway carries over 5,000...

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