LINKING LAND INPUTS TO ESTUARINE WATER QUALITY TRENDS · 2017. 8. 1. · LINKING LAND INPUTS TO...
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LINKING LAND INPUTS TO ESTUARINE LINKING LAND INPUTS TO ESTUARINE WATER QUALITY TRENDS
Joint Meeting: Tidal Monitoring and Analysis Workgroup and
Nontidal Water Quality Workgroupy g p27 March, 2013
USGS Baltimore Science Center
Walt Boynton and ColleaguesCenter for Environmental ScienceChesapeake Biological LaboratoryChesapeake Biological Laboratory
Solomons, MD 20688
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Understanding dTrends
BMPs
e
…that’s what did it!
DO Failure Rate
All that ecology stuff and
everything else
Time
D
• Document trends for relevant variables
• UNDERSTAND the cause(s) of the trend(s)
• Relate trend(s) to BMPs…the effects of management…and everything else
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Conceptual Models Used to Organize the Analysis: A l f An example…one of many
From: Boynton et al 1982
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SIMPLE RELATIONSHIP LINKING LAND AND ESTUARY
Patapscoy = 2 1 + 0 13x
LAND AND ESTUARYm
-2 6
8Patapscoy = 2.1 + 0.13x
r2 = 0.98Mass of N in mesohaline regions
proportional to loading rate
• Data from multiple sub-systems
TN M
ass,
g N
m
4 Patuxent
MD Mainstem Chesapeake
Potomac
Potomac River Estuary
mg
l-1
1 4
1.6
1.8
r ² = 0.88
Data from multiple sub systems of the Bay
• Analysis done on annual time-scale
T
2
Choptank
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Ann
ual A
vera
ge T
N,
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
TN Load, g N m-2 yr-10 10 20 30 40 50
0TN Loading, g N m-2 yr-1
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
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N and P loading rates and Changes in Loading Rates: Several from Chesapeake Bay systems and we many more CB sites can be added
MattawomanPristine Condition
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The Scaling Processg• Assemble data sets
U i t l d l id • Using conceptual model as a guide to explore data for chlorophyll-a relationships
• Examine “residuals” from initial analyses and add variables as needed to improve relationship
• In an on-going analysis we are conducting 20 different CB estuaries are included, each with a time-series of 19 years
Boynton and Kemp 2000
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Preliminary Product: l “ l d l d hl h ll l hA simple “scaled” nitrogen load vs chlorophyll-a relationship
µg l-1
120
140
160 Shallow Ches Bay tributaries
Mattawoman Ck (2005-2010)Mattawoman Ck (1985-1988)
Best Fit Regression95% Confidence Interval
hlor
ophy
ll-a,
80
100
120
MattawomanSAV Nutrient Load
Threshold
May
-Aug
Ch
40
60
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
M
0
20
Jan - Mar TN Load, g N m-2 day-1
Southern New England SAV Nutrient Load Threshold
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350
Examples of WWTP Load Reductions: Back Riverd,
kg
P/d
ay
250
300
350
Phosphorus
nt S
ourc
e D
IP L
oad
100
150
200
Poi
n
0
50
8000• Good engineering works!
N
oad,
kg
N/d
ay
6000
• P loads very reduced.
• N loads also reduced.
Nitrogen
Poi
nt S
ourc
e TN
Lo
2000
4000
•TSS and BOD5 also greatly reduced
years
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
P
0
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Chlorophyll – Nutrient Load Relationship
• Strongest relationship between nutrients and Chl-a was with NITROGEN
• All strong relationships g pinvolved multi-year averaging (2-3 yrs)
• Time lags between load changes and response were important…there is a nutrient memory
f hl • Significant Chl-a reduction was achieved (~50%)
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Trends and Analysis: Mattawoman Creek Case Study
• Major reduction in N and P loads
• Several year delay in responses
Chl h ll d li d (4X) l it • Chlorophyll declined (4X), clarity improved (2.5X) and SAV exploded
• Appeared to be a threshold ppresponse for SAV (< 18 ug/l chlorophyll)
SAV ThresholdMajor WWTP
Load Reduction
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Another Threshold Example: SAV recovery in upper Patuxent River
ha
This section of Patuxent
Coverage, h
Strong management action – WWTP N‐removal SA
V C
NO23 Concentration, mg/l (May – July)
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Here’s another conceptual model: Winter factors of wind, flow and n t i nt l ds pl k l in d t minin th xt nt f s mm nutrient loads play a key role in determining the extent of summer hypoxia….summer winds tend to reduce the duration and intensity of hypoxia
W Sp Su F W S S F
Annual-Scale Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia
Wind from N – E
W‐Sp Surface Chlorophyll‐a
Surface Dissolved Oxygen
W Sp Su F W Sp Su F
Winter Wind
Summer Wind
Geographic positioning of spring bloom
most important
Pycnocline
W Sp Su F
River Flow
Dep
osition
W‐Sp Bottom Chlorophyll‐a
Bottom Dissolved Oxygen
Sediments
W Sp Su F
Nitrogen Load
Deep water respiration
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CB Hypoxia (June-Sept) and Controlling Features: 1985 - 2007
Lee etal 2012
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The Chesapeake Bay appears to have become a SOURCE The Chesapeake Bay appears to have become a SOURCE rather than a SINK for DIN…nutrients are now entering the Patuxent from both ends. A New TREND
y-1
ge, K
g N
day
DIN
Exc
hang
Net
D
Time, years since 1985
(From Testa et al 2008)
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Understanding and Forecasting: Rockfish example
Day of peak Zooplk concentration
The Beginning The End
Martino and Houde 2010
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Next StepsNext Steps• C ti d t bl d l i f t d i l • Continue data assembly and analysis of trends, mainly N, P, flow and sediment loading from the basins
C ntinu st tistic l ( nd simul ti n) m d lin usin • Continue statistical (and simulation) modeling using conceptual models as guides
• Add variables to the models as needed but keep • Add variables to the models as needed but keep models as simple as possible for tractability and explainability
• Look for examples other than those related to WWTP load reductions (e.g., Murphy et al).
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Physical characteristics of basins and estuaries: arranged from smallest to largest basins
Estuary Basin Area
Estuary Volume
Estuary Surface Area
Average Depth
Max Depth
max depth: average
mouth length
shoreline length
shoreline: mouth
Basin Area: Estuary Area
Basin Area: Estuary
Area depth
Area Volume
m2*106 m3*106 m2*106 m m m m 1/m
Middle 33 16 10 2 3 2 6091 59763 10 3 2 WestRhode 66 24 15 2 4 3 4243 34110 8 4 3 Magothy 94 60 20 3 11 4 3998 35175 9 5 2 Corsica 97 10 5 2 5 3 1501 22458 15 18 9 Bohemia 131 28 14 2 6 3 1854 35793 19 9 5 Back 144 57 29 2 5 2 1443 32878 23 5 3 South 148 78 24 3 9 3 2936 48513 17 6 2
Piscataway 176 4 4 1 1 1 1199 10963 9 48 47 Severn 177 154 40 4 8 2 3319 49876 15 4 1
Northeast 184 19 16 1 4 3 2294 20503 9 11 10 Sassafras 217 155 36 4 10 2 5541 51045 9 6 1
Mattawoman 245 26 22 1 5 4 1607 29572 18 11 9 Bush 336 53 27 2 6 3 2513 46909 19 13 6
Wi i 561 49 21 2 8 3 2757 53491 19 27 11Wicomico 561 49 21 2 8 3 2757 53491 19 27 11Gunpowder 1181 66 36 2 11 6 3392 50842 15 33 18 Patapsco 1518 469 101 5 11 2 8026 97541 12 15 3 Pocomoke 1672 19 7 3 8 3 14214 91697 6 243 90 Choptank 1951 1348 361 4 25 7 20554 239797 12 5 1 Patuxent 2343 652 137 5 36 8 2033 160597 79 17 4Patuxent 2343 652 137 5 36 8 2033 160597 79 17 4
Rappahannock 6918 1753 393 4 23 5 5899 275006 47 18 4
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Hypoxia Duration Linked to Summer AlgaeHypoxia Duration Linked to Summer Algae