Linking ecosystem, landscape, wildlife, and climate models ...
Transcript of Linking ecosystem, landscape, wildlife, and climate models ...
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Linking ecosystem, landscape, wildlife, and climate models to
predict changes to Central Hardwood landscapes and
wildlife
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Linking ecosystem, landscape, wildlife, and climate models to predict changes to
central hardwood landscapes and wildlife Frank Thompson, Bill Dijak, Steve Shifley
USFS Northern Research Station, Columbia MO
Hong He, Josh Millspaugh, Jeffery Schniedermann, Jaymi LeBrun
School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri
Chris Swanston, Leslie Brandt, Patricia Butler
Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, NRS, R9
John Tirpak USGS Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks LCC
Todd Jones-Farrand USFWS Region 4, CHJV
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Goal
• Deliver the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate climate change into conservation planning for central hardwoods forest and wildlife.
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Modeling Approach • Use an integrated modeling approach to
consider – Alternative climate scenarios – Alternative forest management scenarios – Alternative disturbance regimes
• Impacts on – Tree species composition – Landscape pattern – Wildlife habitat/abundance/viability
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General Approach
Down-scaled climate predictions
Ecosystem model: LINKAGES
Dynamic landscape model: LANDIS
Wildlife habitat/abundance/viability models
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The Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework
Partners include NIACS; Region 9, Mark Twain, Shawnee, Hoosier NF; NRS; NA; TNC, CHJV and GPO LCC; State agencies; University of Missouri
Goal: Provide an integrated set of tools, partnerships, and actions to support “climate smart” conservation and management
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Climate and Management Effects
• These scenarios “bracket” the range of management applied within the study area and range of climate projections.
Climate scenario
Forest management scenario
Current management
No harvest
Even-aged 10%
Uneven-aged 10%
Current Climate (1980-2003)
Low-range: PCM-B1
Mid-range: GFDL-A1fi
High-range: Hadley-A1Fi
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Modeling Approach Ecosystem Simulation Linkages Model
Inputs: •Location •Tree sps vital attributes •Climate •Soil characteristics
Landscape Simulation
Inputs: •Species establishment •Seed dispersal •Vegetative reproduction •Longevity •Shade tolerance •Fire tolerance •Disturbance regime •Management regime
LANDIS Model
Tree biomass at yr 10
Climate Models Predictions: •Temperature •Precipitation •Solar radiation
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LINKAGES • Simulates ecosystem processes by
integrating soil, climate, and species data.
• Uses data on: • Climate: Daily temp, precip, solar radiation, wind,
growing season degree days • Soils: Rock, clay, sand, organic matter, nitrogen,
field capacity, wilting point • Tree species: maximum height, longevity,
maximum dbh, ……
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Early results from LINKAGES
• As climate warming predictions become more extreme (i.e. Current to GFDL to Hadley): – Oaks (red, white, black) and other deciduous
species decrease in biomass at year 30 – Eastern redcedar, loblolly pine, and shortleaf
pine increase in biomass at year 30
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Landscape-level Fire/fire suppression Wind/hurricane/ice storm Insects Diseases Exotic species invasion Harvest/silverculture Fuel treatment
Seed dispersal
Exotic species invasion
Wind
Harvest
Fire
Stand initiation
Stem exclusion
Understory reinitiation
Old Growth
Tree species-level Longevity/Maturity Shade tolerance Maximum DBH Average seed numbers Dispersal distance Fire tolerance Disturbance
susceptibility Stand/pixel-level
Development stages Competition for …
growing space Regulate species level
… processes
Mortality Growth Establishment
Landscape is stratified into land types
LANDIS PRO Design
Insect
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Management and disturbance effects on tree size class distribution at year 100
No Harvest
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General Approach
Down-scaled climate predictions
Ecosystem model: LINKAGES
Dynamic landscape model: LANDIS
Wildlife habitat/abundance/viability models
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Habitat suitability
EAM 10% UAM 10% Mixed 10% No Harvest
0.13 0.03 0.08 0.03
0.05 0.27 0.15 0.14
0.58 0.54 0.54 0.60
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Habitat Suitability
High : 0.99
Low : 0
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m1S0 m1S1 S0 S1
Calculate vital rates for each patch and project populations
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Projected response of regional PRAW to afforestation efforts
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Abundance
Year
Current
1,500,000 ha
1,000,000 ha
300,000 ha
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General Approach
Down-scaled climate predictions
Ecosystem model: LINKAGES
Dynamic landscape model: LANDIS
Wildlife habitat/abundance/viability models