Linking Climate and Weather Services:

Extending Forecasts for Disaster Mitigation

and Economic Benefits

Presented by A. Leetmaa to

The Honorable William M. Daley

Secretary of Commerce

on April XX, 1999

Weather and climate forecasts

Climate variability STRONGLY IMPACTS economy

Historic breakthroughs in climate forecast skill in 1997-1998

Use of climate forecasts is INCREASING

Future Progress

Next steps

Overview

Events such as snowstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes

Forecasts have “skill” days in advance

Forecasts depend on atmospheric data and models

Background

Weather Forecasts:

Climatology - average weather over 30 years

Climate - average of weather events over a week, month, or seasons

Climate forecasts:

Predict monthly, seasonal averages

Predict unusual seasons

Highlight areas of unusual storminess, drought

Climate forecasts depend on ocean data and coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

Background

Climate Forecasts:

Property losses - $2.8B

Agricultural losses - $700M

State and federal relief - $500M

Tourist industries - $200M

Lost sales in snow- related industries $100M

Losses in energy sector $4.5B

Texas & Oklahoma drought $6B

Sensitivity and Vulnerability of U. S.To the 1997/98 El Niño

Increased sales of homes, goods - $5.5B

Increased employment - $500M

Fewer transportation delays -$200M

Reduced snow removal costs - $400M

Sensitivity and Vulnerability of U. S. Economy

To the 1997/98 El Niño

Winners:

Property losses - $2.8B

Agricultural losses - $700M

State and federal relief - $500M

Tourist Industries - $200M

Lost sales in snow related industries $100M

Losses in energy sector $4.5B

Texas & Oklahoma drought $6B

Sensitivity and Vulnerability of U. S. Economy

To the 1997/98 El Niño

Losers:

We have skill in forecasting climate:

- major events such as El Niño and La Niña

- smaller climate variability events

Breakthroughs Made in ClimateForecasts 1997-1999

Six month advanced warning in California resulted in $500M to $1B savings.

Flood insurance sales increased in California and the Southeast.

Drought impacts in Hawaii and U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands.

Climate Forecast Use

1997/98 El Niño

Mitigation:

Survey of 87 managers in agribusiness, water resources, utilities, emergency sector, etc.**

81% (70) used or seriously considered using the forecasts

Forecasts used for both planning and operational decisions

66% (29) of those using forecasts (41) reported beneficial outcomes

Real users were 47% (41/87); Earlier 1996-97 survey showed 32%

64% used the forecasts

70% indicated future business decisions will incorporate climate information

**Chagnon, David, 1999: Assessement of the Uses of El Niño-Based Forecasts by Decision Makers. (Chapter of book to be published in 1999)

Use of 1997/98 El Niño Forecast

Power utilities biggest users:

Weather Derivatives

Rapid development of new market: $2.5B in contracts in energy and retail sectors

Historical data about climate/weather variability

Ready access to calibrated, maintained surface observations

Forecasts on all timescales: daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal.

Information on forecast skill

Future Applications Based on Climate Forecast Products

CLIMATE: Planning Decisions WEATHER: Operational Decisions

Locking in energy prices Spot market purchases

Establishing power trading partners

Types of swaps

Maintenance schedules Altering maintenance schedules

Regional strategies for quantities Advertising and promotionals

and types of merchandise

Inventory management

Water management for flood control, Flood control

protected species, irrigation

Types of crops, fertilization Harvesting schedules

Total and irrigated acreage Pesticide applications

Regional fire potential Fire weather

Drought preparedness

Fisheries seasons

OUTLOO

KS

THREATS

ASSESSMENTS

GU ID

ANCE

FORECASTS

WATCHES

WARNIN

GS &

ALERT

COORDIN

ATION

PROTECTION O

F

LIFE &

PRO

PERTY

FLOOD

MIT

IGATIO

N &

NAVIGATIO

N

HYDROPOWER

AGR IC

ULTURE

RECREATION

ECOSYSTEM

RESERVO IR

CONTRO

L

COMM

ERCE

ENERGY

HEALTH

STATE /LOCAL

PLANNING

ENVIRONM

ENT

New Operational Forecast Products for the NWS Integrated Suite

Seasonal and monthly probabilities of storminess for regions of the U.S.

Probability distributions of rainfall events ranging from small amounts to large extremes

Probabilities of severe storms, tornadoes, ice storms, snowstorms, droughts (month, season...)

Probabilities of above and below normal hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and Pacific

Probabilities of synoptic scale events such as pineapple expresses (major west coast floods)

Probabilities of synoptic scale events such as nor’easters vs Alberta clipper

Variability of temperature and probability of temperature extremes (season, month, day)

Establish a private sector Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC) for weather sensitive industries

Convene select committee of DOC Bureau heads to develop plans for:

forecasting economic indices for weather sensitive sectors

utilization of climate forecasts by private sector

NEXT STEPS FOR DOC

Policy:

a) A Presidential Decision Directive designating DOC as lead agency with NWS responsible for operational climate forecasts.

b) Establish ISAC for climate impacts.

c) Get Bureau heads to develop implementation plan.

Science: Refocus observing system and research priorities.

Operations:

a) Routine issuance of climate forecasts.

b) Routine forecasts of weather/climate sensitive economic indices.

Resources:

a) Increase assets for high performance computing.

b) Improve infrastructure for economic impact assessment.

Private Sector: Develop Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs) to accelerate the use of climate forecasts.

Next Steps for DOC, NOAA, and NWS

Progress and Partnerships

NOW 2000 2005

Climate Forecasts Research Quasi-operational Integrated Suite

DOC Involvement -- ISACS Economic Index Fcsts

Initial ESA, ITA

Private Sector -- Initial CRADAs Extensive Partnerships

Partnerships

Sectors Involved Energy Retail Agriculture Recreation

Transportation Government Emergency International Fisheries

Managers Aid Coastal Management Water Resources Drought