Linking C lim ate C hange A daptation and D isaster R isk M … Adaptation and Disaster Risk... ·...

This project is funded

by the European Union

A project implemented

by MWH

Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6

Request for Services N°2005/102581

Linking Climate Change Adaptation

and Disaster Risk Management for

Sustainable Poverty Reduction

Vietnam Country Study

November 2006

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TA Team:

! Roger Few (team leader)

! Authors: David Viner, Laurens M. Bouwer

! In partnership with: Nguyen Huu Ninh, Ngo Cam Thanh

! A study carried out for the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG)

with support from the European Commission

REVISION DATE DESCRIPTION PREPARED BY (AUTHOR) REVIEWED BY

0 Nov 06 Vietnam Country Study D. Viner, L. Bouwer Michele Lombardini

Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction

Vietnam Country Study - November 2006

Foreword

This report has been produced as part of the project ‘Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disas-

ter Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction’, funded by the European Commission on

behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG). VARG is an informal net-

work of bi- and multilateral institutions aiming to facilitate the integration of adaptation to climate

variability and change into development processes through sharing of information and experiences.

The report is based on a review of secondary information, a series of meetings, interviews and fol-

low-up communications with experts in Vietnam, and discussions during an international VARG

workshop in Geneva, Switzerland in October 2006 hosted by United Nations International Strategy

for Disaster Reduction and sponsored by DFID, DGIS, GTZ, OECD and SIDA.

We are extremely grateful for the assistance and continuing input given to the project by all the country

experts consulted, VARG and the participants in the international workshop (see Appendix 2).

The findings from this study and the country studies in México and Kenya are summarised in the

synthesis report for the project.

Vietnam country study team:

> David Viner, MWH Consultant (study leader)

> Laurens M. Bouwer, MWH Consultant

Vietnam country study partners:

> Nguyen Huu Ninh/Ngo Cam Thanh, Center for

Environment Research Education and Devel-

opment (CERED), Vietnam

Project team leader:

> Roger Few, MWH Consultant

Project risk assessment expert:

> David Viner, MWH Consultant

Project steering committee:

> Maria Lamin, European Commission

> Frank Sperling, VARG Secretariat/World Bank

> Jessica Troni, UK Department for International

Development

> Maarten van Aalst, Red Cross/Red Crescent

Climate Centre

> Silvia Llosa, UN International Strategy for Dis-

aster Reduction

> Shardul Agrawala, Organisation for Economic

Co-operation and Development

Technical assistance and logistical support:

> MWH (Montgomery Watson Harva sa/nv)

Funding for the project was provided by:

> European Commission (EC): country studies

and synthesis

> UK Department for International Development

(DFID): partnerships, international workshop

> Netherlands Directorate-General for International

Cooperation (DGIS): international workshop

> German Agency for Technical Cooperation

(GTZ): international workshop

> Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development (OECD): international workshop

> Swedish international Development Coopera-

tion Agency (SIDA): international workshop



Table of Content

1. INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................1

2. OVERVIEW ...............................................................................................................................3

2.1. Country background ....................................................................................................................3

2.2. Climate hazard and disaster profile, and potential climate change impacts ...............................4

2.2.1. Typhoons and tropical storms .........................................................................................................................5

2.2.2. Floods .............................................................................................................................................................6

2.3. Approaches to disaster risk management ...................................................................................7

2.3.1. Organisations ..................................................................................................................................................7

2.3.2. Activities ........................................................................................................................................................10

2.4. Approaches to climate change adaptation ................................................................................15

2.4.1. Activities under the UNFCCC........................................................................................................................15

2.4.2. Adaptation research activities and projects...................................................................................................15

2.4.3. Current UNDP adaptation efforts ..................................................................................................................16

3. CASE STUDY: NAM DINH PROVINCE .......................................................................................17

3.1. Introduction................................................................................................................................17

3.2. Hazards and vulnerability ..........................................................................................................18

3.2.1. Current risk from weather extremes..............................................................................................................18

3.2.2. Changes in risk resulting from climate change .............................................................................................19

3.3. Current policy and practice........................................................................................................21

3.3.1. Disaster preparedness ..................................................................................................................................22

3.3.2. Dykes and Levees.........................................................................................................................................23

3.3.3. Non-structural measures...............................................................................................................................23

3.4. Adaptation needs/options ..........................................................................................................24

3.4.1. Policy integration...........................................................................................................................................24

3.4.2. Flood protection ............................................................................................................................................25

3.4.3. Development of adaptation options...............................................................................................................25

3.4.4. Information base ...........................................................................................................................................25

4. INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS.......................................................................................................27

4.1. Progress in integration...............................................................................................................27

4.2. Current mechanisms/incentives ................................................................................................28

4.3. Current barriers to integration....................................................................................................30

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................33

5.1. Conclusions ...............................................................................................................................33

5.2. Recommendations.....................................................................................................................33

5.2.1. Climate and hazard information ....................................................................................................................34

5.2.2. Communication of risk and planning tools ....................................................................................................34

5.2.3. Coordination..................................................................................................................................................35

5.2.4. Political momentum and institutional capacity...............................................................................................35

5.2.5. Grassroots capacity and community involvement.........................................................................................36

5.2.6. Financing adaptation.....................................................................................................................................36


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ANNEXES......................................................................................................................................39

Appendix 1 - Sources Consulted .........................................................................................................41

Appendix 2 - Experts Consulted ..........................................................................................................43

Appendix 3 - Working Terminology......................................................................................................45

List of Tables

Table 1. Incidence of poverty (%) by region............................................................................................. 4

Table 2. Natural Disasters in Vietnam by decade, 1901-2000................................................................. 5

Table 3. Legislation relating to structural flood defences ....................................................................... 10

Table 4. Policies related to disaster risk management (from National Report 2005)............................. 12

Table 5. Selected Socio-economic variables for Nam Dinh, Red River Delta Region and Vietnam...... 18

Table 6. Potential Run-off changes in the Red River by 2070 ............................................................... 19

Table 7. Towards adaptation in Nam Dinh ............................................................................................. 25

Table 8. Existing mechanisms and incentives that have helped, or may help, foster integration.......... 29

Table 9. Existing barriers to integration.................................................................................................. 31

Table 10. Summary of key points ............................................................................................................. 37

List of Figures

Figure 1. Map of Vietnam .......................................................................................................................... 3

Figure 2. Projected climate changes for South-east Asia from a range of GCMs..................................... 6

Figure 3. Organisational chart of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control ............................ 8

Figure 4. The Disaster Cycle for the Second Strategy and Action Plan for Mitigating and Managing

Disasters in Vietnam................................................................................................................. 13

Figure 5. Nam Dinh province and Giao Thuy District in the Red River Delta, Vietnam .......................... 17

Figure 6. Mapping of storm tracks during the 2005 season. ................................................................... 18

Figure 7. Rainfall Changes for the Red River Region, derived from Global Climate changes and

regional scaling factors............................................................................................................. 19

Figure 8. Mean Sea level at Hon Dau Station, Vietnam.......................................................................... 20

Figure 9. Annual variations in the number of Tropical Cyclones active in the North-west pacific ......... 20

Figure 10. Annual variations in the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in Vietnam or affecting

the country over the period 1960-2005 .................................................................................... 21



List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

ADRC Asian Disaster Reduction Centre

CACC Capacity Building for Adaptation to Cli-mate Change project

CCFSC Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control

CECI Canadian Centre for International Stud-ies and Cooperation

CERED Centre for Environment Research Edu-cation and Development

CISDOMA The Consultative Institute for Socio-Economic Development of Rural and Mountainous Areas

CPWC Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate

DANIDA Danish International Development Agency

DDMFSC Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control

DMC Disaster Management Center

DMU Disaster Management Unit

DP disaster preparedness

DRM disaster risk management

DRR disaster risk reduction

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation

GCM global climate model

GEF Global Environment Facility

HMS Hydrometeorological Service

ICZM integrated coastal zone management

IMF International Monetary Fund

IMH Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ISG International Support Group (MONRE and MARD)

IVM Institute for Environmental Studies

MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Devel-opment

MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment

MOST Ministry of Science and Technology

NCAP Netherlands Climate Assistance Pro-gramme

NDMP Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership for Central Vietnam

NGO non-governmental organisation

NOAA National Oceanic & Atmospheric Ad-ministration (United States)

NRC Netherlands Red Cross

PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

RAMSAR Ramsar Convention on Wetlands

RCCCSD Research Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development

RCM regional climate model

SEA-START Southeast Asia Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training

TAW Technical Advisory Committee for Flood Defence (Netherlands)

UNDP United Nations Development Pro-gramme

UNEP United Nations Environment Pro-gramme

UNESCO-IHE UNESCO Institute for Water Education

UNFCCC United National Framework Convention on Climate Change

UN-ISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

VARG Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group

VEPA Vietnam Environment Protection Agency

VESDI Vietnam Environment and Sustainable Development Institute

VNHLSS Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey

VNICZM Vietnam Netherlands Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project

VNRC Vietnam Red Cross

WRU Water Resources University


Vietnam Country Study November 2006 1

1. INTRODUCTION

This report has been produced as part of the project ‘Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disas-

ter Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction’, carried out for the Vulnerability and Adap-

tation Resource Group (VARG) with support from the European Commission. The general objective

of the project is to assess, within a poverty reduction perspective:

! how and under which conditions can current disaster risk management practices help prepare for

climate change;

! under which circumstances does climate change require changes in disaster risk management

approaches;

! what lessons can be learnt from the exercise that could inform wider adaptation policy.

The project uses grounded examples in Vietnam, México and Kenya and exchange of experiences

across those contexts to provide insights into how a more integrated approach to disaster risk

management (DRM) and climate change adaptation can be built. The country studies are de-

signed to identify the extent to which current disaster management practices reflect future adapta-

tion needs and assess what changes may be required if such practices are to address future risks,

especially in low-income settings. Although risk assessments form part of the studies, we place

the emphasis on the institutional capacity and constraints/opportunities within the policy process.

Each study is based upon a review of secondary information and a series of interviews and meet-

ings with a number of agencies, researchers, government departments and NGOs during a five-

day visit by members of the project team. Following initial analysis of these findings, further com-

ment, feedback and input was received from country experts, several of whom subsequently par-

ticipated in an international VARG workshop held in October 2006 at which the findings and impli-

cations of the studies were discussed.

This document consists of five sections. Section 2 provides a national overview of present and future

risks from extreme weather events and current approaches to DRM and climate change adaptation

in Vietnam. This is followed in Section 3 by a case study designed to illustrate at a finer scale the

implications of climate change for DRM approaches and practice. Drawing on the previous sections,

Section 4 then presents an institutional analysis (for the country as a whole), assessing progress in

integration of DRM and climate change adaptation and setting out a series of factors that may be

contributing to or hindering that process. The concluding section, Section 5, commences with a

summary statement on the extent to which present approaches may help prepare for climate

change, before presenting a series of preliminary recommendations as to how approaches may

need to change in order to meet future challenges. Key points discussed in the latter sections are

also listed in tables, including a final summary table listing the main issues and possible means by

which they could be addressed.

NB The usage of terms relating to risk, vulnerability, disaster management and adaptation in this re-

port is based primarily on standardised definitions provided by the United Nations International

Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR). Please see ‘Working Terminology’ at the end of the

document (Appendix 3).



2. OVERVIEW

2.1. COUNTRY BACKGROUND

Vietnam’s long, narrow land mass spans the length of South East Asia’s east coast, on the South

China Sea, and its west borders Cambodia and Laos. Vietnam has an extensive coastline of over

3000km in length, and the majority of its population lives in these coastal regions.

Vietnam is a relatively poor country that

has had to recover from the damage of

war, loss of financial support from the old

Soviet Bloc, and the rigidities of a centrally-

planned economy. Since the mid-eighties,

Vietnam has undergone major economic

growth. The ‘Doi Moi’ process (literally

translated means ‘change and newness’)

has reformed economic policy and has de-

centralised markets, allowing foreign in-

vestment and impressive economic growth,

doubling the size of the economy and rais-

ing many out of poverty (Ninh et al, 2006).

However, this economic development has

raised conflicts and compromises by plac-

ing stresses on the environment such as

deforestation, land degradation, flooding,

water pollution, over-fishing and waste,

which place stresses on many communities

and have created greater difficulties for

many of the country’s poor (Ninh et al.,

2006). Many still remain in poverty, with an

estimated 29% of the total population living

below the poverty line in 2002. According to

new poverty line standards, this amount

would be higher. Figure 1. Map of Vietnam

Vietnam is heavily dependant on its natural resources, particularly agriculture and fisheries. 80% of

the country’s population is rural and is largely dependant on the main food crop of rice, of which

Vietnam is one of the world’s largest exporters (IUCC, 1997). Whilst the country’s large Delta re-

gions in the North (the Red River Delta) and South (the Mekong Delta) provide fertile land for agri-

culture, the country is plagued by frequent natural disasters, specifically typhoons, tropical cyclones

and flooding, which play a substantial role in inhibiting economic development. These delta regions

are also densely populated, and with Vietnam’s population of 80 million expanding at a rate of 1.4%

(growth rate in 2000, MoNRE, 2003), these regions will incur greater pressures still in future.

Regional differences in poverty incidence are indicated in Table 1. These may be related to the im-

pacts of natural disasters, as the less disaster stricken south-east of Vietnam has experienced much

higher growth rates in the past, compared to the Central Coast and North Central regions. However,


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other factors, such as a better infrastructure and transportation system, play an important role as

well (Benson, 1997).

AREA 1993 1998 2002

Northern uplands 79 59 43

Red River Delta 63 29 22

North Central 75 48 42

Central Coast 50 35 24

Central Highlands 70 52 51

South East 33 8 10

Mekong 47 37 22

Table 1. Incidence

of poverty (%) by

region

Total 58 37 29

Data source:

General Statistics Office, Viet

Nam Household Living Stan-

dard Survey (taken from NDM-

partnership Framework and

Action Plan 2006-2008)

Note:

2002 data are preliminary es-

timates.

Rural households are typically 5 times more likely to live under the poverty line than urban house-

holds (2002 estimates from VNHLSS), and poverty in rural areas has declined much slower than in

urban areas. The expansion of irrigation infrastructure may increase agricultural production. But is

has been suggested that due to the lack of flood protection neither the government nor farmers are

willing to invest in such infrastructure (Benson, 1997).

2.2. CLIMATE HAZARD AND DISASTER PROFILE, AND POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Vietnam experiences a tropical monsoon climate. The wide range of latitudes and the marked variety

of topographical relief means that the climate tends to vary considerably from region to region. Mean

annual temperature ranges from 18-29°C and a distinct seasonal difference is felt between the dry

season in November to April and the warm rainy season from May to September (MoNRE, 2003).

Mean annual rainfall ranges from 600mm to 5,000mm, 80-90% of which is concentrated in the rainy

season. (MoNRE, 2003).

The location and topography of Vietnam make it one of the most disaster-prone countries in the

world, suffering from typhoons, tropical storms, floods, drought, seawater intrusions, landslides and

forest fires (Jegillos et al., 2005). Of these, the most damaging and frequent are typhoons, tropical

storms and floods. Over recent decades, the damage due to natural disasters has increased drasti-

cally (Table 2) and this trend may continue in future as climate change is expected to alter the cur-

rent storm system and precipitation regimes.



Table 2. Natural Disasters in Vietnam by decade, 1901-2000

(ADRC, 2002)

According to MoNRE (2003), climate model simulations under a range of emissions scenarios sug-

gest mean annual temperature changes for Vietnam of 1.5-2.5°C by 2070, but further simulations

based on a range of scenarios suggest that this change could be as great at 3-4°C (Climate Impacts

LINK Project, 2003). Changes in precipitation are less certain, with a range of possible outcomes

covering both increases and decreases in annual mean precipitation, but increases are generally

suggested (MoNRE, 2003; Granwich et al., 1993). Regions affected by the North-eastern monsoon

are expected to experience increases of 0-5% during the dry season and 0-10% in the rainy season

(MoNRE, 2003).

2.2.1. Typhoons and tropical storms

Vietnam is affected by typhoon and tropical cyclone activity from the North-West Pacific ocean, with

4-5 events affecting the coast of Vietnam every year (MoNRE, 2003). These regular disasters cause

extensive and repeated damage to buildings and infrastructure and losses to agriculture and fisher-

ies, having a detrimental effect on the capacity of communities to develop and move beyond poverty

(DW Vietnam, 2004). Breaching or over-topping of protective dykes in the event of storm surges

from typhoons and tropical storms causes agricultural land to be flooded by salt-water and thus be

rendered unproductive for several years. When this occurs frequently, resources in the community

are insufficient to make repairs and the result is severe poverty and malnutrition (CCSFC, 2003).

Furthermore, environmental degradation has contributed to Vietnam’s vulnerability to storms and cy-

clones in recent years, mangrove destruction has left many regions less protected from the storm

surges that accompany the storms (Tri et al, 1998).


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The most intense and destructive storm in recent history was Typhoon Linda in 1997, which flat-

tened entire communities leaving tens of thousands homeless, 500000ha of rice fields destroyed,

thousand of fishermen lost at sea and roads, dykes and bridges smashed (Tiempo, 1997).

The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific have apparently increased

over the last few decades (Fan et al., 2006). In Vietnam, the decade 1971-1980 had the largest

number of typhoons, and during the decade 1991-2000 the number of typhoons decreased (see also

Figure 10). During recent years, the trajectories of typhoons has moved southward, and the typhoon

season appears to have shifted to later in the year. Tropical cyclone and typhoon occurrences are

expected to alter under climate change scenarios, as storms may become more frequent, more in-

tense or change patterns of storm track (IPCC, 2001), and the typhoon season may become longer

(Granwich et al., 1993).

2.2.2. Floods

Figure 2. Projected climate changes for South-east Asia from a range of GCMs

Source: IPCC data Distribution Centre, 2004

More than one million people in Vietnam are at risk from annual flooding (based on 1995 population

figures), a vast majority of whom are people living in the low lying Delta regions (Zeidler, 1998). In



the flood season, heavy rainfall upstream causes high discharges and large-scale annual flooding

throughout September and October. This period of inundation can last even longer, up to 6 months

depending on climate variability and topography (Wassman et al., 2004). These floods are added to

by shallow tidal flooding at the coast.

Projections of populations change and development suggest that, even without any changes in cli-

mate or sea-level, the number of people at risk is expected to rise by 60% by 2025 and the US$720

million of capital value currently at risk from annual flooding may increase ten-fold to make the total

equivalent to 5% of Vietnam’s GDP (Zeidler, 1998). Rising sea-levels will almost certainly occur and

increase this risk even further. Sea-level rise of 30 centimetres to 1m over the next 100 years is ex-

pected, which is projected to cause the capital value lost every year to US$17 billion – 80% of the

country’s annual GDP if no protective measures are taken (Zeidler, 1998). The increased risk is not

restricted to coastal areas, in fact rise of river beds and backwater effects will also cause serious

problems to inland river regions, with a total of 40 000 km2 flooded annually (Zeidler, 1998).

Changes to precipitation regimes expected under climate change scenarios will exacerbate flooding

problems further. Most climate models indicate overall increases in precipitation (Figure 2) and the

concentration of Vietnam’s annual rainfall over a short rainy season makes the system sensitive to

rainfall increases (MoNRE, 2003). Wet season rainfall increases are expected to increase peak

flows considerably and reduce the return period of a 100-year event to 20 years (MoNRE, 2003).

2.3. APPROACHES TO DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

This section outlines some key disaster risk management institutions operating in Vietnam and dis-

cusses their activities.

2.3.1. Organisations

Disaster risk management in Vietnam is coordinated foremost by the Central Committee for Flood

and Storm Control, which was founded in 1955. This Committee is chaired by the Minister of Agricul-

ture and Rural Development. Additionally, each sectoral ministry has a ministerial Committee for

Flood and Storm Control that cooperates with the national central committee and offices at provincial

level. Central government structures are complemented by a management system extending to pro-

vincial and local levels.

Committees for Flood and Storm Control (CFSC)

The main body for co-ordinating disaster management in Vietnam is the Central Committee for Storm

and Flood Control (CCSFC) with the Department of Dyke Management and Flood and Storm Control

in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development acting as its standing office (Rego, 2001). The

CCFSC have responsibility for gathering data, monitoring flood and storm events, issuing official warn-

ings and coordinating disaster response and mitigation measures. The CCSFC consists of representa-

tives of the various relevant ministries, as well as the Department of Dyke Management, Flood and

Storm Control, the Hydro-meteorological Service, and the Vietnam Red Cross (Figure 3).

According to the organisational framework (from National Report 2005), the Central Committee is

responsible for assisting the Government in:

! Observing and investigating the establishment and implementation of the annual flood and storm

preparedness solutions and plans;


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! Issuing mandates on mobilizing labour forces, equipment, etc to respond to pressing situations

which exceed local authorisation;

! Instructing localities how to overcome consequences caused by floods and storms;

! Organizing summing up workshops on disaster preparedness and mitigation to propagate experi-

ences, lessons, and advanced technologies in disaster preparedness and mitigation in localities

and sectors

At the provincial, district and commune levels, local CFSCs are responsible for:

! Helping the equivalent People’s Committee to implement flood and storm measures in the territory;

! Organizing dyke protection, flood and storm preparedness and mitigation;

! Flood recovery and rehabilitation.

Figure 3. Organisational chart of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control

Sector Committees

Ministries and central sectors establish Sector Committees for Flood and Storm Control, which are

responsible for:

! Building and implementing flood and storm preparedness and mitigation, protecting people,

physical and technical materials under the sector’s management

! Managing contingency materials and equipment in support of flood and storm preparedness and

mitigation under the sector’s management function

! Timely supply of materials, equipment, technologies, etc. to affected areas in emergency situa-

tions and support for flood and storm recovery, following the mobilizing mandates of the Central

Committee for Flood and Storm Control



! Drawing out lessons in flood, inundation, and storm preparedness and mitigation and promoting

them to localities and units in the sector.

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) was established in November 1995 by

merging several Ministries.

! The Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control (DDMFSC) is the organisation

that has the task to maintain the dykes and flood defences. The director of the Standing Office of

the CCFSC is also the director of the DDMFSC, which falls under MARD. The DDMFSC has a

number of functions that relate to the management of dikes (Decree No. 355/TTg of Prime Minis-

ter, May 1996). They also implement all disaster prevention and mitigation activities ordered by

the Government and Ministry (MARD).

! The Disaster Management Center (DMC) operates under the DDMFSC and thus the ministry of

MARD. The task of the DMC is to coordinate with the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting

Center and provide information to the DDMFSC for flood and storm disaster mitigation. It also

supports CCFSC in reservoir operation. The DMC issues warnings and directions for disaster

management. (Decision No. 180NN-TCCB of MARD, January 1997).

Hydro-meteorological forecasting is undertaken by the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting

Center, which falls under the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment (MONRE). The In-

stitute of Meteorology and Hydrology under MONRE provides research and expertise for weather

forecasting and climate modelling. Additionally, the Hanoi University of Science undertakes and pro-

vides predictions for wave height and direction as well as precipitation and drought.

The ministry of MARD has established the so-called International Support Group (ISG). The ISG is

“a forum for dialogue in the agriculture and rural development sector in preparation for donor-

Government Consultative Group (CG) Meetings”. The Thematic Ad-hoc Group 2 of ISG addresses

“Hydraulic works development, disaster control and rural water supply, which focuses on strengthen-

ing coordination among Ministries and donors in water sector strategies and River Basin Organisa-

tions (RBOs)”.

Vietnam Red Cross

The Vietnam Red Cross (VNRC) are the major agency operating across the whole of the country

that are involved in DRM. The VNRC have a range of activities operating at the country, province,

district and commune level. The activities of the VNRC are related to minimizing impacts of disasters

by raising awareness in communities on disaster preparedness, and organizing works of prevention

and response to disasters as well as works of relief and recovery. An important project of the Viet-

nam Red Cross relating to disaster risk reduction is mangrove replantation in the coastal zone (for

more details see subsection 3.3)

Partnerships with international institutions

The Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership for Central Vietnam (NDM-Partnership) is an association

made up of voluntary members of Government, NGOs and donors. The objective of the NDM-

Partnership is to ‘… establish proactive co-operation among concerned Government agencies, inter-

ested donors and NGOs, through regular information sharing and policy dialogue; proposing and

recommending priorities in allocation of resources, and setting implementation modalities to effec-

tively utilise Government, Donor, and NGO resources for mitigation of natural disasters’ (NDM Part-


10 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

nership, 2004). Although initially aimed at the Central Provinces of Vietnam, in response to the se-

vere flooding disaster in 1999, the intention has been expressed to widen the partnership to the na-

tional level.

Specifically, the partnership has set the objective to support the Government in implementing its de-

velopment strategies, as set out in the Second National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitiga-

tion and Management, that are to reduce the number of deaths from 800 per year in the 1990s to

200 deaths per year in the period 2001-2010, and to reduce the economic losses caused by disas-

ters from an average of 2% in the 1990s to below 1% of national GDP in the period 2001-2010

(NDM Partnership, 2004). The Partnership has also recognised the long-term risk of climate change.

The UNDP disaster reduction programme in Vietnam consists of a number of projects, among them

the project ‘Capacity building for Disaster Mitigation in Viet Nam’ (2002-2005), which has helped to

initiate the NDM-Partnership, and the project ‘Support to the Disaster Management System in Viet

Nam’ (1998-2004), which has helped to establish a nationwide water disaster information and moni-

toring system.

2.3.2. Activities

According to the extensive analysis of Benson (1997) the following natural disaster risk reduction

measures can be recognised in Vietnam:

1. Structural measures

The main approach to disaster mitigation in Vietnam is a system of 5,000km of river and 3,000km of

sea dykes. This extensive dyke and levee system has been in operation for over 1000 years, built

and maintained by the local community who were obliged to contribute 20 work days per year to

their maintenance. This has since dropped to only 10 days per year due to pressures on human re-

sources and economic restrictions, and is likely to reduce further in the future (CCFSC, 2003). Table

3 lists legislation relating to dykes and other defence works in Vietnam.

Table 3. Legislation relating to structural flood defences

> Ordinance on Dykes (1989)

> Ordinance on Prevention and Control of Floods and Storms and Implementation Provisions (1993)

> Law on Water Resources (1998)

> Regulation on flood diversion and slowing (1999)

> Decree on flood diversion and slowing (1999)

> Decision on the works of flood and storm prevention (2002)

> Dyke Management Law (draft 2006)

Dykes are present mainly in the northern and central parts of the country. Along the Red River in the

north many river dykes have been put in place as well as seawalls. Along the central coast, small

river basins are present, and flooding along these rivers can be regarded as flash floods. Seawalls

present here are lower than in the northern areas and frequently overflow and wash away. In the

Mekong Delta in the south annual flooding occurs, and little has been done to protect the land from

flooding. No dykes are present here, and water flows in an open channel system. In these areas, an

extensive system of drainage channels and pumping stations has been put in place for agriculture.



Dykes are often of poor quality as they consist mostly of earthen structures and have been built by

manual labour. Sedimentation of stretches of rivers between dykes in response to the reduction of

overbank areas has increased the flood risks as the river bed in some places has risen above the lo-

cal topography. Also, the raising of dykes has increased flood risk as it has caused a false sense of

security in the local population, leading to increasing investments in houses and infrastructure be-

hind the dykes.

2. Non structural measures

Non structural measures include mangrove re-plantation and windbreaks along buildings. Mangrove

restoration has been demonstrated to improve conditions substantially, as mangrove offers protec-

tion from the storm surges which accompany tropical storms and cyclones. For example, restored

mangrove in the Kien Thuy District of Northern Vietnam reduce a 4m storm surge brought by storm

number 7 in 2005 to a 0.5 m wave, causing no harm in the region (Jegillos et al., 2005). A number of

projects such as this have been introduced to vulnerable coastal regions of Vietnam and have

proved very successful.

3. Building structures

Poor housing is an important concern and the most important single cause of risk. There is however

a large amount of traditional knowledge of appropriate building techniques. Building codes and land-

use planning legislation and enforcement have been put in place, but further legislation may be

needed as well as more strict enforcement.

4. Disaster warning and preparedness

Forecast and warning is being carried out by the Vietnamese government for tropical cyclones and

floods. There is no system for flash floods but research has started to look into forecasting possibili-

ties. The national typhoon warning system delivers a 48 hour warning, based on a typhoon model

that is operated by the Hydrometeorological Service (HMS). Real-time observational data is avail-

able from the Japan Meteorological Agency and China Meteorological Agency. In 2008 data will also

be available from Vietnam’s satellite Vinasat. The predicted typhoon path from the Joint Typhoon

Warning Centre is used for reference as well. During the flood season, dykes are monitored 24

hours per day. Warnings are broadcasted through TV and radio and in smaller communities through

loudspeakers in the streets. In 1995, the CCFSC set up a disaster communication system which

uses an electronic mail network to disseminate information to every province in Vietnam on a 24

hours a day, 365 days a year basis, exchanging disaster assessment reports between provincial and

national levels, and passing disaster response directives to its staff in the field (Rego, 2001). How-

ever, the CCFSC have identified that the current systems for disaster warning are still severely lack-

ing, ‘often unreliable, and the procedures for issuing warnings suffer from a lack of modern commu-

nication technology’ and that ‘public awareness of the threat of water disasters is low even though

the risk of flooding is very high’ (CCSFC, 2003).

5. Post disaster relief

Immediate relief efforts are well-organised and effective, but rehabilitation efforts could be improved,

particularly for the poor.


12 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

Policies and plans for disaster risk management

Table 4 lists a series of policies relating to DRM in Vietnam. These are reflected in successive na-

tional strategy plans for the country.

Table 4. Policies related to disaster risk management (from National Report 2005)

> Land policy and land use management

> Policies for forest planting, protecting and forest management and exploitation

> Policy on managing natural resources and exploitation management

> Water resources management policy

> Policy on environmental protection, sustainable development, and environmental management

> Policies for flood diversion and retention and dredging riverbed for flood release

> Policy for overcoming the aftermath of disaster in disaster-prone areas

> Policies for living-with-flood areas

After an international workshop on flood mitigation, emergency preparedness and flood disaster

management in Hanoi in 1992, the First National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitiga-

tion was developed and approved in 1994 (updated 1995). The plan addressed the following impor-

tant water-related disasters in Vietnam: river floods; flooding from the sea; increased runoff; erosion

and siltation of river beds; slope instability, mudflows, and landslides; torrential rains in combination

with strong winds; failures of water-retaining structures; and seawater intrusion into ground water

The plan had three main goals: forecasting and warning, disaster preparedness and mitigation, and

emergency relief.

The Disaster Management Unit has since developed a Second National Strategy and Action Plan

for Disaster Mitigation and Management for the period 2001-2020. This addresses all major

phases of the disaster cycle (Figure 4) and has the following ten basic principles:

1. Disaster planning will be based on multi-hazards identification and risk assessment; based on the

different types of disaster hazard and different levels of disaster risk in different parts of the country.

2. Disaster preparedness and disaster forecasting are the preferred methods of disaster mitigation.

3. Disaster preparedness and disaster mitigation are the task of each local area throughout the country.

4. Measures for ensuring the long-term benefit of disaster mitigation for the whole community are to

be given the highest priority.

5. Measures for reducing the risk of a particular type of disaster must be compatible with reducing

the risk of other types of disasters.

6. All measures must be carefully considered, both for practicality and technology, and these meas-

ures have to be realistic in the Vietnamese context in its current and future state of development.

7. Reduction of disaster risk must be compatible with traditional disaster coping mechanisms of local

people; and must support hunger eradication and equitable poverty reduction (HEPR).

8. Measures for disaster preparedness and mitigation must be consistent with the economic develop-

ment level of each local area, as well as the desired general economic development of the country.

9. Measures for disaster mitigation must be compatible with measures for protecting the environment,

protecting equitable development, sustaining natural resources and preserving cultural heritage.



10. Co-operation and co-ordination between the central level of government, local level of govern-

ment, state agencies, non-government organisations, and the general public must be well estab-

lished using a bottom up approach starting at the grassroots level. Similarly, cooperation and co-

ordination of external assistance needs to be strengthened and aggressively pursued.

Figure 4. The Disaster Cycle for the Second Strategy and Action Plan

for Mitigating and Managing Disasters in Vietnam.

Local plans for disaster preparedness are also developed. The process for developing these on a

yearly basis has been explained as follows by NRC (2006):

‘Every year, the CCFSC sends out instructions to the provinces to prepare a DP plan for

the local hazard situation. In the DP plan, there should be options for various hazards with

preparation in human and material resources, facilities and equipment, strengthening of

dykes and disaster prone areas, task assignments. These instructions are then cascaded

down to the commune level. At the commune level, village heads are requested to provide

information about their villages (hazards, high-risk areas, vulnerable people, available re-

sources, etc.). The commune people’s committee establishes a Committee for Flood and

Storm (CFSC), comprising of heads of villages and mass organisations. The CFSC sends

its teams out to do field surveys in villages. From the survey results and local resources,

the CFSC standing members develop a DP plan with task assignment for its membership.

The village heads are then informed of the plan at meetings who guide and instruct the lo-

cal people in the implementation of the plan in the villages.’

Disaster reduction projects

A number of donor supported projects are being carried out in Vietnam that support natural disaster

risk reduction. A selection of projects is listed below (adapted from Danida, 2005).

The Vietnam –Netherlands Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project started in 2000. The

first phase of the Project (2000-2003) had the objective of establishing an Integrated Coastal Zone

Management (ICZM) programme for Vietnam. The main aspect of this phase was the sustainable

development of the coastal zone. The current phase of the projects aims to strengthen institutional


14 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

ICZM frameworks at the province level, as well as introduction of ICZM at the district level. Also, a

first national ICZM strategy document will be set up. The Second Phase of the project is projected to

start in 2007. The project is funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and is coordinated

by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) of Vietnam through its Viet Nam

Environment Protection Agency (VEPA).

The Vietnam Coastal Wetlands Protection and Development Project (2001-2006), is aiming to

re-establish the coastal mangrove wetland ecosystem, in particular in the area of the Mekong delta

in order to support sustainable coastal protection. The project also aims to help poor people that de-

pend on mangrove forests by helping them to move and resettle in the buffer zone and provide them

with sustainable livelihoods. The project is funded by the Government of Vietnam, Danida and the

World Bank.

The Quang Ngai Disaster Mitigation Project (2003-2005) the project aims to have a planned and

effective response to disasters and is focussed on local communities in Quang Ngai province. A pro-

active approach could reduce the impacts of floods and other disasters on local livelihoods. The pro-

ject is funded by the Australian Government.

The Water Disaster Risk Reduction Projects in Da Nang City and Binh Dinh Province are un-

der the Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership (NDM Partnership) for Central Vietnam. The aim is to

mitigate the effects of water-related disasters on poverty and hunger, gender equality, environmental

protection and sustainable development in the most vulnerable and poorest areas of central Viet-

nam. These projects of two years are carried out by the United Nations Development Program

(UNDP) in collaboration with CECI and are funded by the Royal Netherlands Embassy, the Govern-

ment of Luxemburg and UNDP.

Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

A Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Vietnam was completed in 2002, called the Com-

prehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. This paper mentions, among the major policies

and measures to promote sustainable growth and poverty reduction, that in order to develop agricul-

ture and the rural economy to achieve rapid poverty reduction, it is needed to ‘develop a disaster

prevention strategy to minimise losses and stabilise livelihoods and production in disaster-prone ar-

eas’ (PRSP 2003, p 69). It goes on to state that attempts must be made to:

! ‘Strengthen the program on disaster prevention and mitigation, build the system of information

collection and hydrometeorology forecasts, raise the awareness and improve the people’s capac-

ity to respond to natural disasters, build infrastructure and safe sites, build up reserves for emer-

gency and train rescue teams. Establish the Fund for Recovery from Disaster to provide timely

and effective assistance to the poor in case of disaster. Make efforts to set up the social safety

net system such as the Hunger Prevention Fund, which may be utilised before the harvest period.

! Annually, State budget funds will be used to invest in building and mending dykes and in funding

other flood and drought prevention facilities and to build flood prevention and distribution facilities

in the North. In the Central region, continue to adjust the population master plan, build flood pre-

vention facilities, lakes to prevent water overflow, provide financing for people to build houses on

stilts to withstand the effects of flooding, complete the irrigation sea dyke system, estuary dykes

and flood control, reduce losses from natural calamities, especially to ensure the safety of peo-

ple’s homes and ensure their normal life in the deep flood areas in the Mekong river delta during

the high water season.



! Establish local flood prevention funds mobilised from contributions by the people according to

government regulations. Furthermore, a reserve plan is needed to cope with weather problems.’

2.4. APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

2.4.1. Activities under the UNFCCC

The Initial National Communication of Vietnam (2003) has identified key sectors that are vulner-

able to climate change, and where adaptation is potentially needed. A Vulnerability and Adaptation

assessment has been carried out for the following seven sectors:

! Water resources

! Agriculture

! Forestry and land-use

! Aquaculture

! Coastal zone

! Energy and transport

! Human health

The climate change scenario upon which the vulnerability assessment for the Initial National Com-

munication is based was generated using the CCAM model from CSIRO, using the IS92A and B

scenarios. It must be stated that these scenarios are not state-of-the-art in terms of the climate mod-

els used or the underlying socio-economic conditions. As a result , therefore, they must be used a

guides rather than absolute values. Seven different regions were identified, for which the elements

temperature, rainfall and sea-level rise were analysed for the periods 2010, 2050 and 2070.

A number of adaptation options have been identified in these assessments, but no programmes to

implement adaptation measures have been described. The Initial National Communication however

describes one project that may contribute to the reduction of natural hazards. This is the ‘Project on

forest plantation on sandy soil in the coast of the Southern Central Viet Nam’ (project number 4 de-

scribed in the Annexes). The project aimed at planting 5 million hectares of new forest, of which

60,000 hectares of coastal protective forest, during the period of 1998-2010. Its main purpose was

preventing sand movement in the central coastal zones.

The Vietnam Second National Communication to the UNFCCC is in preparation and forthcoming in 2006

or 2007. According to Danida (2005), for adaptation, the focal areas will be water resources, coastal

zone management and agriculture. MoNRE carries out the work, with support from UNEP/GEF.

2.4.2. Adaptation research activities and projects

Several vulnerability and adaptation projects explicitly related to climate change have been carried

out or proposed in Vietnam. Some are discussed later in subsection 4.1, but the more general ones

listed by Danida (2005) include:

The project Climate Change Impacts in Huong River Basin and Adaptation in its Coastal Dis-

trict Phu Vang (2005-2007) is funded by the Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme (NCAP)

and implemented by the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and Department of Natural Re-

sources and Environment in Hue, which are both part of MONRE. The project aims to strengthen the

capacity of sectors, institutions and people, in order to reduce their vulnerability to water-related dis-

asters. This is achieved by improving their understanding and preparedness and minimise negative


16 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

effects and losses. The main focus is on water resources and stakeholder involvement, and a stake-

holder action plan (SAP) is to be developed.

The Viet Nam Coastal Zone Vulnerability Assessment project (1994–1996) assessed the vulner-

ability of the entire coastal zone of Vietnam to the effects of sea-level rise, and developed an approach

for integrated coastal zone management in Vietnam. The project was undertaken by the Marine Hydro-

meteorological Centre of the Hydro-meteorological Center (HMS), with support from a European

coastal zone management expert team. The project was funded by the Dutch Government.

The Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate (CPWC) (2000–ongoing) is a network or-

ganisation focussing on climate change and water resources. The programme aims to improve the

capacity in water resources management to cope with the effects of increasing variability of the

global climate. A number of dialogue meetings were held in Vietnam and South East Asia, which

have functioned as a platform for improved access to information on meteorology and climatology.

The CPWC secretariat is located at UNESCO-IHE in The Netherlands.

The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) is carrying out a number of projects related to

climate change impacts and adaptation. A recent effort involves the simulation of climate change us-

ing a regional model, with support from the Southeast Asia Global Change SysTem for Analysis,

Research and Training (SEA-START) Regional Center, established in 1996. Also, it is involved in a

project funded by DANIDA on the benefits of climate change adaptation from small and medium

scale hydropower plants.

2.4.3. Current UNDP adaptation efforts

A new GEF-funded project will be implemented in Vietnam over the period 2006-2010 on community

based adaptation. This project also covers Bangladesh, Bolivia, Guatemala, Jamaica, Kazakhstan,

Morocco, Namibia, Niger, and Samoa. This project aims to inform the GEF as well as national gov-

ernments, donors and others, on how local-scale adaptation in different sectors and institutions can

be supported. Additionally, two project proposals from UNDP that relate to climate change adapta-

tion are pending for review at GEF; one on land degradation in the South Central Coast region of

Vietnam; and a proposal for a comprehensive capacity building project for climate change adaptation

(‘Implementing long-term adaptation measures that increase the resilience of national development

sectors to the impacts of climate change’).



3. CASE STUDY: NAM DINH PROVINCE

Using the case study of Nam Dinh Province on the Red River Delta in Northern Vietnam as illustra-

tion, this section investigates how effectively present DRM practices may be able to cope with future

hazards, highlighting both how current approaches may help to prepare for climate change and how

they may need to alter. This section is based on the literature review and interviews (both structured

and informal) with individuals involved in DRM, with a particular focus on the impact of flooding on

poor rural livelihoods. The aim is that the material in this section provides a case study example that

will help ground and inform the national-level institutional analysis in Section 4.

3.1. INTRODUCTION

Nam Dinh province is one of 11 provinces in Vietnam’s Red River Delta Region in northern Vietnam

(Figure 5). Nam Dinh lies 90 km south of the country’s Capital, Hanoi, and is bordered by the prov-

inces of Ha Nam (north), Ninh Binh (west) and Thai Binh (north-east), with 72 km coastline on the

south-east. The Red River runs north-west to south-east, along Nam Dinh’s north-eastern border.

The province covers 1637 km2, of which 65% is agricultural, 3% forest, 15% specialised land and

5.7% residential (Vietnam Trade Information Center, 2001).

Figure 5. Nam Dinh province and Giao Thuy District in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Nam Dinh Province lies in the Red River Delta Region, which, like the Mekong Delta region in the

south of the country, is fertile and agriculturally highly productive. The low-lying land provides ideal

conditions for wet rice cultivation and this high productivity has made the region one of the most

densely populated and intensely cultivated areas of coastal Vietnam (Adger, 2000). Regions like this

have doubled their agricultural output since the 1980s (Adger, 1999). Nam Dinh’s close proximity to

the Capital, Hanoi, means that transport and communication links are relatively good.

Whilst the geography of the region brings productivity, it also means that the region is vulnerable to natu-

ral disasters. The low-lying land is subject to annual floods from the Red River, and also tidal flooding

and saltwater intrusion from the coastline. The coastline is also vulnerable to tropical storms and cy-

clones, which bring destructive high winds, very heavy rainfall and storm surges several times a year.


18 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

Table 5. Selected Socio-economic variables for Nam Dinh, Red River Delta Region and Vietnam

SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES NAM DINH

PROVINCE RED RIVER

DELTA REGION VIETNAM

Area (km!) 250 1250 33100

Population (millions, 1994) 2.6 14.1 73

Population growth (est. %) 1.78 1.69 2.18

Population density (persons per km!) 1,060 1,100 220

Urban Population (%) 11.5 17.7 19.8

GDP (VND 000billion, 1993; 1989 constant) 0.820 6.192 33.477

Food crop production per capita (kg rice equivalent per capita) 481.9 389.8 359.0

(from Adger, 2000)

3.2. HAZARDS AND VULNERABILITY

3.2.1. Current risk from weather extremes

The Red River Delta region and in particular Nam Dinh Province is currently affected by large and

rapid changes in floodwater levels. Inundation occurs annually, due partly to very high river-levels in

the rainy season causing deep flooding in the Delta region, but also to tidal flooding at the coast,

which brings shallower, saline flood waters to low-lying coastal regions.

Figure 6. Mapping of

storm tracks during

the 2005 season.

Photograph taken in the

Nam Dinh CCFSC Office

(Photo by Laurens Bouwer).

Nam Dinh Province is currently protected by a system of dykes and levees which have been built

and added to over the last 1000 years by the local communities (Jegillos et al, 2005). This system

protects the precious agricultural land from inundation and allows the rice production on which the

local economy is dependent.

In addition to this annual cycle of flooding, the region is also subject to tropical storms and cyclones

that bring high winds, very intense rainfall, flash flooding and storm surges. These events affect Nam

Dinh several times a year, causing extensive and repeated damage to buildings and infrastructure

and losses to agriculture and fisheries, upon which the communities of the region depend. Figure 6

shows the tracks of typhoons during the 2005 season.



3.2.2. Changes in risk resulting from climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase existing risks in Nam Dinh. Whilst typhoons may

not increase in frequency, evidence from studies in other regions of the world indicates a possible

strengthening of typhoons (Emmanuel, 2005). There are a number of additional factors which also

need to be accounted for in assessing changing risks to Nam Dinh province, including: sea level

rise; changes in precipitation amounts and rates; and changes in wave height and steepness.

Table 6. Potential Run-off changes in the Red River by 2070

CASE 1 > Temperature increases and total annual rainfall increases. > Daily Rainfall increases by 20%.

CASE 2 > Temperature increases and rainfall decreases in rainy season, rainfall in dry regions increases. > Daily rainfall increases by 25%

CASE 3 > Temperature increases and rainfall increases in both seasons. > Daily rainfall decreases by 10%

(MoNRE, 2003)

Annual Run off Low Flow Flood-top Discharge

Present 2070 % Present 2070 % Present 2070 %

Case 1 3766 3985 +5.8 560 502 -10.3 37800 42300 +12.0

Case 2 3766 3267 -13.0 560 489 -12.6 37800 43500 +15.0

Case 3 3766 3019 -19.0 560 479 -14.5 37800 37000 -5.0

(Kelly et al., 1996, in: Lien, 2002).

Figure 7. Rainfall Changes for the Red River Region,

derived from Global Climate changes and regional scaling factors


20 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

Regionally-scaled climate projections for the Nam Dinh province have greater uncertainty associated

with them, with annual precipitation changes ranging from increases of 20% to decreases of 40-50%

(Figure 7) (Lien, 2002). The implications for river run-off for a range of changes in climate are dem-

onstrated in Table 6. It is likely that increases in total precipitation, and increases in intensity of pre-

cipitation, will cause increases in peak flows and further flood risk in the region.

The low lying province of Nam Dinh is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, which could be as much as

1m (IPCC, 2001). Such a rise would threaten 60% of the wetlands and cause inundation of culti-

vated agricultural areas (Zeidler, 1998). The Xuan Thuy RAMSAR site in Nam Dinh (Red River

mouth) is particularly at risk (Zeidler, 1998). The loss of the coastal wetlands mangrove ecosystem

in this region will have knock on effects for the vulnerability of the region to tropical storms and cy-

clones, as the mangrove systems protect coastal regions from storm surges. Sea level rise of

around 1.5 to 2.0 mm per year is already evident in record for the last 50 years (Figure 8).

Climate model simulations have also indicated that increased sea surface temperatures under a

warmer climate will cause tropical storms and cyclones to become, on average, more intense, result-

ing in an increase in frequency of the most damaging storms. For Vietnam, there are also concerns

that the cyclone season will become longer and that storm tracks will alter. (Granwich et al., 1993).

An increasing trend in tropical cyclone frequency in the North West pacific may already be evident in

recent records (Figure 9), but presently there is no indication of increases in the number reaching

Vietnam (Figure 10). Note that the numbers shown in Figure 10 only represent the typhoons making

landfall in Vietnam or those that are seriously affecting the country. The total number of storms ob-

served off the coast of Vietnam may be higher.

Figure 8. Mean Sea level

at Hon Dau Station, Vietnam

(Lien, 2002)

Figure 9. Annual variations

in the number of

Tropical Cyclones active

in the North-west pacific

(Lien, 2002)



Figure 10. Annual variations

in the number of tropical

cyclones making landfall in

Vietnam or affecting the

country over the period

1960-2005

(data from Dr. Tran Thuc, IMH)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

num

ber

of

typhoons

An increase in the number of very damaging storms reaching Northern Vietnam, together with in-

creases in vulnerability due to mangrove destruction and increased population pressure in the region

in the future would cause an increase in risk in coastal regions.

3.3. CURRENT POLICY AND PRACTICE

Disaster Risk Management is carried out at a local level within Nam Dinh Province. There is a well

defined vertical structure for the demarcation of responsibilities and roles within Vietnam. Each prov-

ince and subsequent district being responsible for implementation of national policies. The main fo-

cus of policies is the prevention of risk from identified natural disasters. In Nam Dinh, as already

specified, the main re-occurring risk is from typhoons.

A range of disaster risk management measures have been identified for Nam Dinh according to the

draft Second National Strategy and Action Plan, though many have yet to be implemented and/or

enforced. These are:

! Afforest and protect existing upstream forest watersheds to reduce downstream floods,

! Build large and medium scale reservoirs upstream on big rivers to retain flood water;

! Strengthen dyke systems to be able to resist design flood levels;

! Build flood diversion structures;

! Clear flood-ways to rapidly release flood water;

! Strengthen dyke management and protection works to ensure the safety of the dyke systems.

! Construct emergency spillways along the dykes for selective filling of flood retention basin.

! Designate and use flood retardation basins to decrease the quantity of flood water flow.

Non-structural measures that have been identified include:

! Models for river flood forecasting have to be developed to give out prompt warnings and to be

able to quickly carry out effective response measures.

! The national disaster committee and organisations for flood and storm control from central to lo-

cal levels of government have to be strengthened to mobilise the work of flood and storm mitiga-

tion and management at all levels.

! Legal documents such as the Regulation on Flood and Storm Warning, Ordinance on Flood and

Storm Prevention, Ordinance on Dykes, Regulations of the Government on construction of dykes,

flood release, flash flood prevention, disaster relief, activities of standing offices for flood and


22 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

storm prevention, damage measurement and assessment, and other regulations have been pre-

pared and need to be continuously reviewed and strengthened.

! Community disaster awareness should be enhanced through education, training, workshops, and

circulation of disaster bulletins.

! Plans in accordance with all probable disaster situations have to be prepared that include disaster

specific measures so that disaster damage can be mitigated.

! Shifting the cultivation season has to be studied as a measure to mitigate damage to agriculture

production.

! Master plans have to be developed to mitigate hazards, to familiarise local populations, and to

evacuate people where there is currently no available capability for limiting the impact of disasters

that frequently occur in important localities.

! For each disaster occurrence, lessons learned and experience have to be collected for future ap-

plication when a similar disaster occurs.

3.3.1. Disaster preparedness

Typhoons have a clearly identifiable season and for this reason preparedness in Nam Dinh is high.

Local commune speaker systems help provide information. Also there is a programme of education

of the young (primary and secondary schools). The Nam Dinh Provincial Red Cross is charged with

identification of areas at risk and educational activities. The organisation manages the inter-agency

Natural Hazard Mitigation Centre which is responsible for co-ordination of DRM in the province. Cli-

mate change, in terms of anthropogenic change is not factored into DRM planning. The planning and

mitigation for typhoons is undertaken on a seasonal basis.

Nam Dinh is sub-divided into 10 clearly defined districts. Each of these districts is further divided into

a number of communes. For example the Giao Thuy district has 21 communes (Figure 5). At the

provincial level the Red Cross collates information and resources which is then passed down to the

district level and hamlet level. At the provincial level education material is produced and training

courses put in place to teach officials at the district level, this activity is then replicated at the district

level to be passed on to individual communes.

The Nam Dinh provincial Red Cross co-ordinates the activities of the individual districts. At the dis-

trict level, for example in Giao Thuy, information is co-ordinated by Red Cross officials and passed

back to the Provincial Red Cross. At each district level the Red Cross undertakes a risk assessment

of individual properties and households. This risk assessment involves:

! Identification of vulnerable areas, based upon previous experience;

! Identification of vulnerable households, based upon exposure of property;

! Identification of vulnerable households based upon vulnerability of individuals, gender, age,

physical ability;

! Analysis of dyke strength (visual inspection).

Based upon the outcome of the risk assessment a number of possible actions are likely:

! Permanent evacuation (or managed retreat) of individual households, in Nam Dinh during 2005,

80 households were moved on a permanent basis;

! Structural strengthening of individual households to provide more robust defence against damage;

! Specific evacuation plans and training given to the head of each household in the event of a typhoon;

! Identification of resources required for dyke strengthening in each commune.

In the onset of a typhoon, the Red Cross organises evacuations, under the auspices of the Natural

Hazard Mitigation Centre. External help comes from other agencies such as the Women’s Union.



Special attention is given to the most vulnerable households in terms of disaster preparedness and

relief. Warnings to fishermen are provided through radio contact (if available) or the firing of warning

rockets organised by the Red Cross at commune level. Fishing boats are moved to safe areas inland

away from open water and are rafted to ensure protection.

3.3.2. Dykes and Levees

The dyke and levee system in Nam Dinh provides the first line of defence against tidal surges asso-

ciated with typhoons. Nam Dinh Province has 72 kilometres of coastline, and is low lying with most

land being at or just above sea-level. The province has 663 kilometres of dykes, of which 91.5 kilo-

metres consists of sea dykes. Most sea dykes have been reinforced with concrete on the coastal

edge, but they are liable to erosion on the leeward side if they are over-topped. In the context of risk

reduction, the weakest spots along the dykes have been identified and are being reinforced. Identifi-

cation of weak spots is based on location and dimensions of the Dyke with regard to the water levels

that occur one every 20 years.

Overall, the National Standard, based upon Russian designs for dykes was abandoned in 1975. This

is replaced with design standards that are now based upon local knowledge and experience. Sea-

dykes in Nam Dinh are built to withstand water levels and storms with a 5% recurrence interval, i.e.

events that occur every 20 years. Within Nam Dinh dykes are currently built to withstand category 9

storms. However, dykes may fail at water levels that are lower than the design dyke height. The

strength of dykes and their resistance to different failure modes - such as sliding of the inner or outer

dyke slope, erosion of the dyke revetment, and piping, causing water to flow under the dyke and

erode the dyke body - together determine dyke safety (TAW, 2000).

There are four categories of dykes, of which only the categories 1-3 are eligible for funding from the

national government; category 4 dykes are locally financed. The classification into these four catego-

ries of dykes mainly depends on the property and values at risk behind the dykes.

The system of river dykes in Nam Dinh is adequate and to date none have failed, as there are no

high river water levels. Flood retention areas and flood diversion structures are being used upstream

of Hanoi, in order to avoid downstream flooding throughout the Red River catchment. Some of these

schemes are being used for hydro-electrical purposes.

3.3.3. Non-structural measures

The impacts of typhoons are mitigated by helping to replant mangroves. The Japanese Red Cross

have provided funds for planting in six provinces and the Danish Red Cross have helped in Nam Dinh

between 1997-2005. Replanting the mangroves has been perceived as beneficial for disaster risk re-

duction by local government and population. A recent survey (Jelligos et al, 2005) found that areas that

were protected by mangroves that otherwise often breached during storms experienced considerably

less damage. However, the report goes on to stress that the exact benefit is difficult to establish, as

other factors, such as the density and height of the mangrove forest, the coastal characteristics and

the typhoon strength also influence the amount of damage incurred. The report also stresses that an

assessment of the benefits of mangrove plantation would be helpful. Mangroves take about 8 years to

reach maturity. Three species of mangroves are being used; the highest of which can reach 10 meters.

The possibility for mangrove plantation depends on the type of soils/lands, and therefore mangroves

cannot be expanded to entire coastal areas. Artificial plants/mangroves can physically protect dykes,

where natural cultivation is not possible. This option could be further explored.


24 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

Other risk reduction measures include strengthening of homes and in some cases resettlement.

Support was given by the Vietnam Red Cross to 1000 houses to help strengthen them against dam-

age. In some areas of Nam Dinh Province people have been permanently relocated from the most

vulnerable sites by the Red Cross.

3.4. ADAPTATION NEEDS/OPTIONS

The Second National Strategy and Action Plan mainly focuses on structural measures for disaster

reduction in Nam Dinh, such as reservoir building (often upstream of the Red River, north of Hanoi),

and strengthening of dykes. In addition, upstream tree afforestation and mangrove afforestation are

proposed as a non-structural measure. The DDMFSC that controls and maintains the dykes is

strong and adequate in carrying out its tasks of maintaining and restoring flood protection structures.

The emergency response to disasters also seems to be adequate, as the Vietnam Red Cross is well

organised and present at different levels (national, province, district, commune) and is working

closely with different community groups.

A very important positive step in the development of risk management practices has been the planta-

tion of mangrove forests in the coastal zone. These measures of restoring natural protection are very

relevant in complementing the traditional measure of building dykes. Although the positive effects on

coastal protection have to be assessed more precisely, preliminary investigations show that the man-

groves are capable of protection the coast and in particular the dyke system that is present along the

Nam Dinh coastline. Therefore, plantation of mangroves seems to be beneficial in upgrading the

coastal protection system to prepare for more severe climatic conditions. At the same time, the man-

grove plantations increase the amount of habitat for various plant and animal species and may also

help diversify the livelihoods of local communities as they provide opportunities for fisheries.

In Nam Dinh Province, current disaster risk management practices are focused on maintaining and if

needed, restoring the current protection from flooding due to typhoons. Current disaster manage-

ment as carried out by CCFSC in Nam Dinh is very much focused on response and relief, rather

than disaster risk reduction. In view of climate change, response to disasters may be adequate at

this moment, but the protection of livelihoods may be at stake. The preparation for future weather re-

lated risks in Nam Dinh Province may be limited for a number of reasons, and there are several ar-

eas in which progress is needed in reducing future risk (see also Table 7).

3.4.1. Policy integration

There is a lack of integration between policies for development and disaster risk reduction. Current

government development policies, for instance, promote fisheries and shrimp farming in order to im-

prove the livelihoods in Nam Dinh Province. However, in terms of vulnerability reduction of rural

communities this may in fact be counterproductive, as fish ponds and other fisheries activities in the

coastal zone appear to be much more vulnerable to weather extremes such as storms and floods

than traditional agricultural activities such as rice production. Funding of the plantation of mangroves

is currently entirely initiated and supported by donors (carried out together with the Vietnam Red

Cross) and not by the government / CCFSCF or DDMFSC. As a consequence, there is no integra-

tion of these activities into local development policy. This may lead to ineffectiveness. For instance,

in some places mangroves have already been cut again as local communities want to take up their

fisheries activities in the areas where mangroves were replanted. Therefore land-use may also need

to be regulated better, in order to avoid conflict between different economic, protective and ecologic

functions of the coastal zone.



3.4.2. Flood protection

Current safety levels are such that the dykes can withstand a category 9 storm, which occurs roughly

once every 20 years. In general dykes and sea walls at any location in Nam Dinh (and in the typhoon-

prone north of Vietnam) will fail if a strong storm makes landfall (e.g., Storm Number 7, September

2005). Therefore a small shift in typhoon activity or intensity could drastically increase the frequency of

dyke breach, as current safety levels have little room for accommodating a more severe storm climate.

There is not at present a single standard for the construction of dykes and sea-walls, leading to local

differences in strength and safety. This problem has already been recognised at the national level, and

the Faculty of Coastal Engineering of the Water Resources University is carrying out a study into es-

tablishing a single dyke standard for Vietnam. Also, dykes are only reinforced with concrete on the

front (seaward) aside, and consequently dykes may erode on the back side once they are overtopped.

There are only limited financial means for DDMSFC to improve dykes and sea-walls and funds are just

sufficient for recovery. Priorities for strengthening flood protection lie at present with the city of Hanoi,

for instance, rather than the rural areas. If more financial resources would be available, current practice

may be able to minimise the risks. However, an analysis of the cost and benefits is needed in order to

determine whether upgrading is warranted, and in which locations exactly. Alternatives, such as the

possibility of integration of mangrove replantation into DDMFSC policy need to be explored as well. An

assessment of the effectiveness of mangrove replantation is then also needed, in order to justify the

investments for the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

3.4.3. Development of adaptation options

Adaptation studies and policy that have been developed at the national level in the context of the

National Communication of Vietnam under the UNFCCC have mainly looked at vulnerability and po-

tential impacts. Some sectoral adaptation options have been broadly identified in the Initial National

Communication, but these adaptation options have not been further developed or evaluated. Na-

tional climate policies need to address the development and evaluation of adaptation measures on

the ground, in particular measures that can link with and integrate into disaster risk reduction activi-

ties that are already part of daily business.

3.4.4. Information base

At the local level there is awareness that climatic variations, mainly in response to El Nino and La Nina

events, is influencing the frequency of storms in this area. There is also awareness that climate change

may lead to a permanent aggravation in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events (this is

also the case at the national level). However, it appears that at the national level, where climate stud-

ies are performed, there is a need to stimulate the capabilities for seasonal forecasting and prediction,

as well as studies into climate change and climate change impacts (see also subsection 4.3).

Table 7. Towards adaptation in Nam Dinh

> Integrate disaster reduction policies into local development policy in order to effectively reduce vulnerabilities

> Increase funds for coastal/flood protection, as current funds are just sufficient to maintain the status quo

> Develop a single standard for dyke construction

> Upgrade coastal protection, in order to reduce the frequency of dyke breaches

> Assess the effectiveness of alternative measures such as mangrove replantation

> Develop and evaluate practical adaptation measures that integrate with disaster risk reduction

> Improve forecasting and modelling capacities at the national level



4. INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS

This section combines findings from the desk review, the case study and discussions with key ex-

perts to explore more broadly at national-level the current progress in integrating adaptation and dis-

aster risk management in Vietnam, across different sectors and weather-related hazards. Subsec-

tion 4.1 provides a summary of progress, discussing advances that are contributing either directly or

indirectly toward inter-linkage. Subsections 4.2 and 4.3 then draw out a series of mechanisms (posi-

tive) and barriers (negative) that appear to have shaped how effective that process has been to date:

for ease of comparison, these points are organised under a common set of themes.

4.1. PROGRESS IN INTEGRATION

Overall risk reduction efforts are under way in Vietnam and may be reducing vulnerabilities for the

long-term, including those associated with climate change. Though progress remains limited, spe-

cific advances relating directly or indirectly to integration of climate adaptation and disaster man-

agement have emerged in strategic policy, vulnerability and adaptation assessment, institutional co-

ordination and projects sponsored by external agencies.

A strategic policy approach taking a long-term view on disaster risk is provided by the Second Na-

tional Strategy and Action Plan 2001-2020 (draft, under revision): this plan has put more emphasis

on disaster preparedness and forecasting than the First National Strategy and Action Plan. It also

recognised the need to ensure the long-term benefits of disaster management, although disaster risk

reduction was not emphasised as such. The Plan also reports what changes in climate are expected

for Vietnam. The fact that climate change is being recognised as a threat in long-term natural disas-

ter risk management is encouraging for the integration of climate change adaptation among other

long-term issues into disaster risk management approaches.

Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change has been developed for the National

Communication process to the UNFCCC. This work, undertaken mainly by the environment sector,

has assessed potential impacts of climate change (including extreme weather events) on key sec-

tors and identified adaptation options.

Integration of institutions engaged in disaster management, climate risk and development remains a

weakness in Vietnam, but there are positive examples of coordination to build upon, including the

multi-scale framework provided by the CFSC system and the NDM-partnership for Central Vietnam.

The latter is a partnership of government, donors and NGOs, and is focusing on the medium and

long-term investments that are needed for disaster risk reduction. The Partnership may eventually

be expanded to the national level.

Many projects have started or are ongoing that relate to disaster vulnerability or to climate change

adaptation, and others have recently been proposed, including UNDP-GEF projects on community

based adaptation and implementation of adaptation (see Sections 2.3 and 2.4). But some projects

also explicitly link climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. For example, the pro-

ject Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change project (CACC) undertaken by CECI and

the Canadian International Development Agency, focuses on research, training, adaptation plans

and awareness raising and advocacy. The adaptation plans consist of Safer Village Plans, for reduc-

ing community vulnerability, and Safer Production Plans for reducing the impact of natural disasters

on agriculture and aquaculture production. The project Disaster Preparedness Concerned to Climate


28 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

Change of the Netherlands Red Cross has held campaigns on disaster preparedness and climate

change. It also has produced information materials, among them a chapter on disaster preparedness

and climate change for the Disaster Preparedness Manual of the Vietnam Red Cross. However, it is

important to note that these projects are mainly donor-driven and there may be opportunities to ex-

pand the initiation and financial support of these activities to a broader group of actors.

4.2. CURRENT MECHANISMS/INCENTIVES

Drawing on the findings presented so far in this report, we highlight a series of existing mechanisms

and incentives that are currently fostering integration or have the potential to do so (see also table

3). These are listed under a set of themes common to each country study.

Climate and hazard information

Scientific capacity exists for climate modelling and forecasting, coupled with a system for dissemi-

nating warnings for tropical cyclones and floods

Though some studies have been done on climate change scenario construction, efforts presently fo-

cus primarily on current risk, as research groups have only recently started to work with general cir-

culation models for Vietnam. Climate modelling and forecasting capacities at research groups in

Vietnam are good. For instance, the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) is doing research

for improving typhoon modelling. The National Hydrometeorological Forecasting Center has an op-

erational model for typhoon warning. Also, the Faculty of Hydrology and Oceanography at the Hanoi

University of Science is performing research into typhoon modelling. The aim is to increase the ac-

curacy, and couple the meteorology to the oceanography, in order to be able to model storm surges.

They forecast storm surges and waves, and forest fire risks during droughts. This information is also

used by the Disaster Management Unit at MARD. The application of RCM work for the region of

Vietnam has just started at the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology together with the SEA-START

Regional Center aimed at constructing climate scenarios for the lower Mekong River.

Communication of risk and planning tools

On-the-ground risk assessments take place at local scale and incorporate aspects of both physical

and social vulnerability

The risk assessment work of the Vietnam Red Cross in Nam Dinh Province takes an integrated ap-

proach in terms of poverty and development, providing information not just on past exposure to haz-

ards but also on social vulnerability of households. The work currently provides a basis for planning

preparedness activities, but could be modified to promote local-scale planning for long-term risk re-

duction and climate change adaptation that takes social factors into consideration.

Coordination

Both in the area of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, groups have been formed

to better coordinate related activities of government and donors

At a meeting in January 2006 with members of MONRE, MARD, Vietnam Red Cross and donors

(UNDP, Swiss Embassy, Danish Embassy, Danida), it was agreed that a Thematic Ad-hoc Working

Group would be formed on the theme of climate change adaptation. The group will be headed by the

Deputy Director of the International Cooperation Department at MONRE. However, this group at pre-

sent is an informal body and does not yet have a clear mandate. An existing institutional coordination

mechanism is the Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership, which combines efforts of government and

donors. In its Framework and Action Plan, the partnership recognises that climate change may impact

on the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (NDM Partnership, 2004: page 16).



Political momentum and institutional capacity

There is growing awareness of future risks reflected in strategic policy on DRM that also incorpo-

rates consideration of poverty reduction and environmental sustainability. There are also inherent

signs of flexibility in DRM planning.

The topic of weather and climate hazards has long been a priority concern and climate change risk

is also gaining political momentum. The Second National Strategy and Action Plan 2001-2020 (cur-

rently under revision) is the main guiding document for developing and implementing disaster risk

management policy in Vietnam. This Action Plan explicitly mentions climate change as an important

issue for future disaster risk management practices (DMC, 2001: page 12). It also emphasises that

disaster management approaches should be compatible with poverty reduction and sustainable de-

velopment goals. Poverty reduction policies (e.g. PRSP’s) also stress the importance of weather ex-

tremes and disaster risks reduction for poverty alleviation. Additionally, there are inherent signs of

flexibility of approach in DRM in Vietnam – a key asset for progress on adaptation under conditions

of uncertainty. The national Action Plan emphasises the need to implement lessons learned, and

planning for typhoons and other disasters is regularly updated at different levels of government.

Grassroots capacity and community involvement

Community projects on adaptive capacity combine with an existing system of local scale involvement

in DRM planning

Various grass roots and community activities and awareness raising activities are taking place in

Vietnam. Vietnam Red Cross activities (supported by International Federation of Red Cross and Red

Crescent Societies) are carried out that aim to educate both the VNRC staff as well as local commu-

nities about the links between climate change and weather risks. Projects by CECI aim at similar ob-

jectives, by developing safer city plans and implementation of disaster risk reduction and adaptation

measures at the local scale. The system of DRM in Vietnam already operates at a combination of

scales, with the operation of CFSCs and the Red Cross down to district and commune/ward levels,

and the Action Plan emphasises the need for coordination starting at the grassroots level.

Financing adaptation

External funding has already been attracted for adaptation projects

Coastal management projects have been highlighted in particular by external agencies, with, for ex-

ample, major funding for mangrove reforestation projects to mitigate present and future typhoon

damage. Proposals for further projects are currently being targeted to the GEF.

Table 8. Existing mechanisms and incentives that have helped, or may help, foster integration

> Strong DRM focussed agencies at different levels: CFSC system and DDMFSC

> Good capacity for weather and climate modelling

> Presence of an operational forecasting and warning system

> Cross sectoral dialogue through NDM partnership and Ad Hoc Working Group on Adaptation

> Local scale risk assessments of social and physical aspects by VNRC

> DRM strategic policies incorporate poverty reduction and environmental sustainability

> Community level activities in DRM through CFSC

> Various grassroots activities in DRM and climate adaptation by VNRC and donors

> Ongoing and new proposals for external funding of DRM and adaptation projects


30 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

4.3. CURRENT BARRIERS TO INTEGRATION

Drawing on the findings presented so far in this report, here we highlight a series of barriers to link-

ing climate change concerns with disaster risk management in Vietnam (see also table 4).

Climate and hazard information

Shortcomings exist in short-term and long-term modelling and forecasting capacity

Research groups suffer from inadequate access to data, especially real time information, mostly

from satellites, in order to do better predictions. In particular assimilation of different types of data for

their models is needed. The data that is accessible for free (e.g. from NOAA websites) is not suffi-

cient, as it is not available in real-time and may lack spatial and temporal resolution that is needed

for accurate calibration of operational modelling and forecasting. Also, there is a general lack of in-

formation and analyses of data on current temperature and climate change in Vietnam, which may

convince policymakers of the seriousness of the problem.

Communication of risk and planning tools

Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) assessments are limited in scope and methodology

The assessments that have been done for the Initial National Communications were based mostly

on technical aspects, and less on economic and social aspects of climate impacts and adaptation

needs. Additionally, these assessments were mostly qualitative rather than quantitative. On the ba-

sis of these qualitative assessments adaptation options were identified. Analyses of climate impacts

and adaptation options that would be useful for policy development and decision-making purposes

need to draw from quantitative analyses, in order to decide on effectiveness, benefits and costs. The

need for more quantitative assessments of impacts and adaptation, and inclusion of economic and

social aspects, was raised by the interviewees during the project.

Coordination

There is a lack of cross-sectoral integration and issues in coordination between government and

other agencies

The issues that link climate change and water management are split between the ministry of the en-

vironment (MONRE), which deals with climate change and with water management at the state

level, and the ministry of agriculture and rural development (MARD), which deals with natural disas-

ters and water management for irrigation. As mentioned earlier, the Second National Strategy and

Action Plan emphasises that disaster management approaches should be compatible with poverty

reduction and sustainable development goals. However, the policies of different ministries that are

working in disaster risk reduction, rural development, poverty alleviation and land-use regulation ap-

pear to be not well integrated yet. An important reason for this is that the main governmental body

that deals with disasters, the CCFSC, is only actively coordinating between different ministries in the

event of a disaster. The promotion of fisheries activities to raise incomes in the coastal zone, for ex-

ample, may run counter to objectives of vulnerability reduction. Similar problems of coordination

have arisen between some project objectives of donors and local development policy, leading, for

example, to problems of sustainability in some mangrove reforestation projects.



Political momentum and institutional capacity

In DRM practice, the focus appears to remain on emergency response and reconstruction rather

than risk prevention and adaptation

Most of the current disaster management practices in Vietnam are geared towards response and re-

covery and reconstruction. The CCFSC, the main organisation dealing with weather related disas-

ters is focusing on response and not so much on preparedness or long-term risk reduction. Although

the Second National Strategy Plan does put an emphasis on the need to reduce risks and does also

mention the potential impacts of climate change for disaster risk management, it seems that this has

not yet been translated into policy implications for disaster risk reduction activities. Dykes, for exam-

ple, are rebuilt to the original dimensions after a storm, as there is only a small budget for the routine

maintenance of dykes. It appears therefore that there is a clear need to demonstrate the benefits of

disaster risk reduction, including explicit appraisal of the benefits of creating stronger dykes. There

may also be a focus in disaster risk management towards protecting the more urbanised areas.

Those projects in Vietnam that already link adaptation to disaster risk reduction tend to be strongly

donor driven, as there is a lack of expertise on these issues at the administrative agencies. There-

fore, ministries and government organisations have yet to demonstrate ‘ownership’ of an adaptive

approach to future risks. Additionally, the projects are geographically and sectorally limited, as most

focus on the central provinces of Vietnam and are primarily within the sector of coastal zone man-

agement (ICZM) and coastal protection.

Financing adaptation

DRM suffers from inadequate financial resources to meet present needs, and little internal financing

is available for climate change adaptation

The country’s current national plan for protection from future flooding, for example, includes dyke

strengthening and upgrading, raising houses to higher levels and additional pumping measures and

will cost US$6.5 billion – which is one third of current GDP (Zeidler, 1998). However, these plans do

not take into account sea-level rise due to climate change. A protection strategy which takes into ac-

count a 1m sea-level rise is estimated to cost a further US$2.4 billion, bringing the total protection plan

to US$9 billion (Zeidler, 1998). However, these costs may be higher if 5,000 km2 in Red River Delta

and 20,000 km2 in Mekong Delta will be inundated (IPCC Fourth Assessment report, in preparation).

Table 9. Existing barriers to integration

> Real time (satellite) information for operational forecasting needs improvement

> Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation have been mostly qualitative

> Social and economic impacts of climate change and adaptation options have not been studied ade-

quately

> Need for improvement of integration between environmental and DRM domains

> Need for improvement of integration between poverty alleviation/rural development and DRM domains

> Focus on response and recovery rather than vulnerability reduction or adaptation

> Linking DRM and climate adaptation is mainly donor driven

> No cost/benefit analysis available for decisions on coastal protection/dyke strengthening

> Limited financial means for current risk management and dyke (re)construction

> Limited financial means for risk reduction and adaptation efforts



5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1. CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is expected to bring increased disaster risk to Vietnam, mainly from changes in pre-

cipitation and typhoons. The amount of rainfall is generally expected to increase, and may become

more intense. Storms may become more frequent, stronger or patterns of storm tracks may change.

If not properly dealt with, such changes in precipitation and storms will lead to an increased fre-

quency and magnitude of flash floods, seasonal river floods and coastal floods in many parts of

Vietnam. Sea-level rise of between 30 centimetres to 1 meter within the next 100 years is expected,

which may increase the flood risk in low lying coastal areas. As temperatures in Vietnam increase,

droughts can become more frequent and intense.

The analysis of the Vietnamese case example highlights current linkages in disaster risk manage-

ment (DRM), climate change adaptation, current mechanisms and barriers. In terms of current disas-

ter risk management there is a defined vertical structure in Vietnam, which allows for national poli-

cies to be implemented at all levels including provincial, district and commune level. This appears to

work well from a top down perspective. The agencies responsible for DRM co-ordinate their activities

and have defined well-demarcated roles. At the provincial level the main threats from present and fu-

ture extremes appear well identified (e.g. typhoons and flood control in Nam Dinh Province, espe-

cially Giao Thuy District) and strategies and practices designed to minimise associated impacts that

are well tested appear to function.

For structural mitigation, the main failings in long-term DRM are resource related. For the coastal

zone, this primarily includes lack of a strategy to upgrade and maintain dykes at the hamlet, district

and provincial level, and progress to integrate climate change into upgrading of coastal protection is

limited. There is a shortage of information on the potential impacts of climate change at the provin-

cial, district and commune levels. Other key shortcomings in integrating climate change adaptation

and disaster risk management include those relating to information, assessment, coordination, policy

prioritisation, and the integration of risk reduction with support for the livelihoods of the poor. From

the case study of Nam Dinh Province and wider national analysis there have been number of areas

and actions identified that are likely to improve integration and at the same time produce linked cli-

mate change adaptation and poverty reduction policies.

5.2. RECOMMENDATIONS

We present here a series of recommendations, drawing from input to the Vietnam study, from feed-

back from country experts and from an international VARG workshop held in Geneva 2-4th October

2006. The recommendations are made with multi-hazard and cross-sector consideration, and high-

light mainly aspects of technical and institutional capacity, and means to strengthen the policy proc-

ess for linking climate change and disaster management in the context of poverty reduction.


34 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

5.2.1. Climate and hazard information

Improve modelling and forecasting capacities

There is a need to stimulate the capabilities for seasonal forecasting and prediction, including the re-

lationship between ENSO and extreme events, together with investment in studies on long-term cli-

mate projections. Current research groups and hazard assessment institutions present in Vietnam

are well suited to this, but there is a need to stimulate the capabilities, access to data and joint re-

search efforts between Vietnamese and other research groups. The Ministry of Science and Tech-

nology (MOST) together with donors could support this. However, the ministries of MONRE and

MARD also have research budgets that could support improvement of capacities.

Invest in studies on climate change impacts and adaptation

The recently formed Ad Hoc Working Group on Adaptation could take up the assessment of climate

change impacts and adaptation options. However, this group has just started and does not yet have

a clear mandate. Therefore, both MONRE and MARD also have a role contributing to such assess-

ments. An emphasis would need to be placed on the economic and social aspects of climate change

impacts and in the evaluation of adaptation options. The Vietnam Second National Communication

to the UNFCCC provides an opportunity to analyse and report on possible adaptation measures that

go beyond the more qualitative and general recommendations that were made in the Initial National

Communication. New methodologies for the assessment of vulnerability and resilience to cope with

climate change need to be used. Additionally, aims on disaster risk reduction defined in the Hyogo

Framework for Action 2005-2015 could be linked to the climate adaptation activities.

5.2.2. Communication of risk and planning tools

Develop existing local vulnerability assessment mechanisms to consider long-term risk and adapta-

tion needs

Build on the existing capacity for analysis of vulnerability by local-scale institutions in Vietnam, by

developing awareness, knowledge and assessment techniques relating to potential climate change

impacts on extreme events. The Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change project (CACC)

of CECI has shown that it is possible to stimulate awareness and planning at the local level. Simi-

larly, Vietnam Red Cross has worked to inform local personnel on the impacts of climate change

through their Disaster Preparedness Manual. However, the development of assessment techniques

for adaptation needs will require further work on methodology at central level and training pro-

grammes for local level personnel.

Evaluate alternative adaptation measures for coast protection

New assessments of adaptation options could focus on cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit aspects

of alternative adaptive measures. One urgent task is to perform cost benefit analysis of current

coastal protection measures. The current policy of managed retreat that is occasionally carried out

(permanent evacuation) of vulnerable households (and communities) may be unsustainable: this pol-

icy brings about the need for re-settlement of households and displacement of land coupled with the

loss of agricultural land of fishing infrastructure. A cost benefit analysis will allow for a demonstration

of the needs for a programme of implementation of dyke design and strengthening/rebuilding that

will take into account the increased risks associated with climate change. A dike improvement pro-

gramme may have immediate benefits, as it reduces the costs of damage recovery that are associ-

ated with the 4-5 storms that make landfall each year.



5.2.3. Coordination

Improve integration of policies by strengthening coordinating institutions

Disaster risk reduction, poverty alleviation, rural development and agriculture and fisheries policies

are sometimes contradictory. As many of these policies are already part of the responsibilities of the

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), there may be opportunities to better inte-

grate different policies with each other. The current Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership, when ac-

tive at the national level, may also be a suitable platform to integrate rural development and risk re-

duction concerns. As MARD is already very well placed to carry out disaster risk management activi-

ties, they seem to be the most suitable agency for coordination of the integration of climate change

adaptation into disaster risk management. However, as the five-year plan of MARD on flood and

storm control also includes the priorities from other agencies and ministries, there is an important

role for MONRE to provide information and insights on climate adaptation.

Make mangrove replantation the task of DDMFSC

There is a case for expanding the range of options of DDMFSC to protect the coast and agricultural

areas from weather hazards. For instance, mangrove replantation efforts that are currently fostered

by the VNRC and donors could be integrated into the routine work of the DDMFSC, complementing

the traditional coastal protection efforts by dyke building and maintenance. Better integration of

coastal protection and local development policy would also be possible if there would be a closer

cooperation and tuning of policies between the departments within MARD working on rural develop-

ment and policy alleviation, and the departments within MARD working on disaster risk management

and dykes.

5.2.4. Political momentum and institutional capacity

Promote a shift away from responsive measures and towards pro-active disaster risk reduction.

The Second Strategy and Action Plan draft already promotes such an approach, but pro-active dis-

aster risk reduction now needs to be put in practice. This may include, but is not confined to, struc-

tural risk reduction measures such as dyke strengthening. As the improvement of dykes is a rela-

tively inflexible solution, there is a need to decide on dykes versus alternatives that have also addi-

tional benefits for local community livelihoods and ecology. Such measures could consist of expand-

ing mangrove replantation activities. Shifts to alternative livelihoods that are less susceptible to ty-

phoon and flood damage may also be important, as it has been shown that fisheries activities that

are often promoted seem to be much more vulnerable than traditional agricultural activities. How-

ever, the implications for poverty alleviation of such policy should be assessed.

Strengthen use of building codes and land-use planning legislation

Specific recommendations include more strict enforcement of building codes and land-use regula-

tions to reduce risk of damage to dwellings and other infrastructure, and stronger regulation of land

use in coastal zones to balance economic uses of land with the protective and ecological functions.

This particularly relates to vulnerable locations, such as mangrove areas. Further legislation may be

needed to achieve a more sustainable use of the land in coastal areas.


36 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

5.2.5. Grassroots capacity and community involvement

Build adaptive capacity at local level within the CFSC system

A national network of local scale disaster management organisations already exists via the nested

system of flood and storm control committees. These inter-sectoral committees are presently ex-

pected to produce annual disaster preparedness plans. With capacity building including awareness

raising and technical training, they may be a logical vehicle through which to promote local level ad-

aptation.

Increase attention to strengthening livelihood resilience and other non-structural means to reduce

risk

The Second Strategy and Action Plan draft already suggests the need for studies on changing culti-

vation seasons in order to reduce typhoon and extreme events damage to crops. There needs to be

further investigation and analysis of potential measures that can help poor households prevent and

mitigate damage to assets and livelihoods and promote resilience in the face of changing risks.

5.2.6. Financing adaptation

Support state budgets for structural and non-structural risk reduction measures

As recommended in the latest PRSP for Vietnam, an integrated programme of investment is re-

quired in dyke strengthening and flood prevention structures together with measures in climate fore-

casting, emergency response capacity, evacuation sites and recovery funds, and adaptive measures

toward protection of livelihood assets such as development planning and flood-resistant housing.

Funds from donors and international development agencies could support the necessary capacity

building for scientific research on vulnerability and adaptation in Vietnam.

Where the cost-benefit case is clear, direct funding to coast protection

Coastal zones in Vietnam are among the most vulnerable locations to disaster risk: they are also

home to much of the population. Risk reduction along the coast is an urgent priority, as current funds

are barely sufficient to maintain the status quo let alone adapt to rising sea levels and changes in ty-

phoon hazards. Within the institutions responsible for civil protection, such as the CCFSC, there is

already in-house knowledge and expertise in place to reduce risk if there was sufficient budget to al-

low for a thorough programme of research, design and implementation of mitigation projects. Funds

to do this may come from the central government. The Ministry of Planning and Investment may de-

cide on a larger budget for the DDMFSC in order to reduce vulnerabilities and improve and

strengthen coastal protection, if appropriate decisions could be made on the costs and benefits of

such investments.

Drawing both on sections 4 and 5, Table 5 (overleaf) provides a summary of the key issues and as-

sociated recommendations relating to linkage between DRM and climate change adaptation in Viet-

nam. Under the column on ‘Activities’, suggestions for actions that might be considered appropriate

for donor support have been highlighted in coloured font.



Table 10. Summary of key points

ISSUES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTIVITIES

> Real time (satellite) information for operational fore-

casting needs improvement

Improve modelling and

forecasting applica-

tions

> Stimulate capabilities, access to data and joint research efforts, with support

from research budgets of MONRE, MARD and the Ministry of Science and

Technology, and donors

> Vulnerability and adaptation assessments have been

mostly qualitative

> Social and economic impacts have not been studied

adequately

Invest in studies on

climate change im-

pacts and adaptation

> The Working Group on Adaptation as well as MONRE and MARD should take

up the integrated assessment of adaptation options

> Economic and social dimensions of impacts and adaptation measures should

be considered

> Need for improvement of integration between poverty

alleviation/rural development and DRM domains

> Need for improvement of integration between envi-

ronmental and DRM domains

Improve integration of

policies by strengthen-

ing coordinating insti-

tutions

> MARD should take up coordination of the integration of climate change adapta-

tion into disaster risk management

> The Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership should aim to integrate rural devel-

opment and risk reduction concerns

> DRM focus remains on emergency response and re-

construction rather than prevention and adaptation

Promote a shift away

from responsive meas-

ures and towards pro-

active disaster risk re-

duction

> Evaluate alternative protective measures for coastal protection

> Make mangrove replantation the task of DDMFSC

> Promote alternative livelihoods that are less susceptible to typhoon, flood and

drought damage

> Strengthen use of building codes and land-use planning legislation

> Linking DRM and climate adaptation at the local level

is mainly donor driven

Build adaptive capacity

at local level and policy

advocacy

> Local vulnerability assessment mechanisms should be developed to consider

long-term risk and adaptation needs (e.g. CACC project by CECI)

> Build adaptive capacity at local level within the CFSC system

> Increase attention to strengthening livelihood resilience and other non-structural

means to reduce risk

> Inadequate financial resources to meet present DRM

needs

> Little internal financing for risk reduction and adapta-

tion efforts

Support state budgets

for structural and non-

structural risk reduc-

tion measures

> An integrated programme of investment is required in dyke strengthening and

flood prevention, climate forecasting, emergency response and evacuation, re-

covery funds, and adaptive measures

> Where the cost-benefit case is clear, direct funding to coast protection

Specific areas where donor agencies could engage

This project is funded

by the European Union

A project implemented

by MWH


Request for Services N 2005/102581

Linking Climate Change Adaptation

and Disaster Risk Management for

Sustainable Poverty Reduction

Vietnam Country Study - Annexes

November 2006

Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0


Vietnam Country Study - November 2006 41

APPENDIX 1 - SOURCES CONSULTED

> Asian Disaster Reduction Centre (ADRC) 2002 20th Century Asian Natural Disasters Data Book..

http://www.adrc.or.jp/publications/databook/databook_20th/top_e.htm

> Adger, W.N. 1999: Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World De-

velopment 27, 249-269.

> Adger, W.N. 2000: Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam. Annals

of the Association of American Geographers 90, 738-758.

> Benson, C. 1997: The economic impact of natural disasters in Viet Nam. Working Paper 98, Overseas

Development Institute, London, 121 pp.

> Danida 2005: Climate Check in Viet Nam: Final Country Report. 31 pp.

> DMC 2001: Second National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management in Viet-

nam: 2001-2020. Disaster Management Center, Hanoi, Vietnam, 58 pp.

> DW Vietnam (2004) Disasters and Vulnerability Reduction.

http://www.dwf.org/vietnam/preventdamage/index.htm

> Emanuel, K., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436,

686–688.

> Fan, D.D. and Li C.X., 2006: Complexities of China's Coast in Response to Climate Change. Advances

in Climate Change Research, 2 (Suppl. 1), 54-58.

> General Statistics Office of Vietnam (2006) Population and Employment.

http://www.gso.gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=467&idmid=3&ItemID=3324

> Granwich, S., Kelly, M., Nguyen, H.N.(Eds) (1993) Global Warming and Vietnam – A Briefing Docu-

ment. University of East Anglia, Norwich.

> Information Unit on Climate Change (IUCC) (1997) Vietnam and Climate Change.

http://www.cs.ntu.edu.au/homepages/jmitroy/sid101/uncc/fs123.html

> Initial National Communication 2003: Viet Nam Initial National Communication Under the United Na-

tions Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ha-

noi, 135 pp.

> PRSP 2003: The Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. Hanoi, November 2003, 125

pp.

> Jelligos, S.R., Lunde, G., Kawate, H., Dzung, T.V. (2005) Final Evaluation: Vietnam Red Cross man-

grove and Disaster Preparedness in the Red River Delta and Northern Coastal Vietnam (1994-2005).

The Danish Red Cross.

> Kelly, P.M., Lien, T.V., Ninh, N.H-u. (1996). Climate Scenarios for Vietnam. Project: Socio-economic

and Physical approaches to Vulnerability to Climate Change. Hanoi 33p.

> Kelly, P.M. and W.N. Adger 2000: Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and

facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47, 325-352.

> Lien, T.V. 2002: Climate change scenario for Red River catchment. Civil Engineering & Management

Research Report 2002 W-007 / WEM-007, University of Twente, The Netherlands, 29 pp.

> Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE), Socialist Republic of Vietnam (2003) Vietnam

International Communication.

> National Report 2005: National Report on Disaster Reduction in Vietnam. Prepared for the World Con-

ference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe-Hyogo, 18-22 January 2005. 31 pp.

> Ninh, N.H., Luat, H.N., Son, N.D. (2005) Environmental Analysis of the Draft Socio Economic Develop-

ment Plan 2006-2010. Vietnam Union of Scientific and Technological Associations Centre for Environ-

ment Research Education and Development, Hanoi.


42 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

> NRC 2006: External evaluation report: preparedness for disaster related to climate change. Vietnam

Red Cross and Netherlands Red Cross, 24 pp.

> NDM-Partnership 2004: NDM-Partnership Framework and Action Plan (2005-2007). NDM-Partnership

Secretariat, Hanoi, 81 pp.

> Rego, A.J. (2001) National disaster management Information Systems and Networks: An Asian Over-

view. Paper presented at GDIN 2001. Available at:

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN009640.pdf

> Silver, M. 2005: Fiver-year Plan Logical Framework: Water Disaster Management and Mitigation. Minis-

try of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi, 11 pp. (dated 30 July 2005)

http://www.isgmard.org.vn/Information%20Service/Special%20Events/Documents-MARD-5YP/Log-

LF%20-Dykes%20and%20Flood%20Protection%20-%2030July05.pdf

> Sekhar, N.U. 2005: Integrated coastal zone management in Vietnam. Ocean and Coastal Management

48, 813-827.

> TAW 2000: From probability of exceedance to probability of flooding: towards a new safety approach,

Technische Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen, Dienst Weg- en Waterbouwkunde, Rijkswater-

staat, Delft.

> Thomalla, F., T. Downing, E. Spanger-Siegfried, G. Ham and J. Rockström 2006: Reducing hazard vul-

nerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Disas-

ters 30, 39-48.

> Tiempo (1997) Tiempo Climate Cyberlibrary: Typhoon Linda hits Vietnam. Issue 26, December 1997.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/floor0/recent/issue26/t26art5.htm

> Tri, N.H., W.N. Adger and P.M. Kelly 1998: Natural resource management in mitigating climate impacts:

the example of mangrove restoration in Vietnam. Global Environmental Change 8, 49-61.

> US Library of Congress, 2004 http://countrystudies.us/vietnam/

> Van Aalst, M. and M. Helmer 2004: Preparedness for Climate Change. Red Cross/Red Crescent Cen-

tre on Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness, The Hague, 42 pp.

> Van Drunen, M., R. Lasage and C. Dorland 2005: Climate change in developing countries: an overview

of study results from the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Programme. Report R-05/21,

Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, 225 pp.

> Wassmann, R., N.X. Hien, C.T. Hoanh and T.P. Tuong 2004: Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese

Mekong delta: water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production. Climatic Change

66, 89-107.

> Wickramanayake, E. 1994: Flood mitigation problems in Vietnam. Disasters 18, 81-86.

> Zeidler, R.B. 1998: Continental shorelines: climate change and integrated coastal management. Ocean

and Coastal Management 37, 41-62.

Websites

> Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control: http://www.ccfsc.org.vn

> Disaster Management Unit: http://www.undp.org.vn/themes/disaster/

> GEF Community Based Adaptations to Climate Change Program:

http://sgp.undp.org/index.cfm?module=ActiveWeb&page=WebPage&s=community_based_adap

> International Support Group MARD: http://www.isgmard.org.vn

> International Support Group for Natural Resources and Environment: http://www.isge.monre.gov.vn

> Institute of Meterology and Hydrology: http://www.imh.ac.vn/

> Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership: http://www.undp.org.vn/ndm-partnership/

> SEA-START Regional Center: http://www.start.or.th/

> VNICZM project: http://www.nea.gov.vn/projects/Halan/English/VNICZM_HomePage.html



APPENDIX 2 - EXPERTS CONSULTED

! Nguyen Thi Hong Ha, Southeast Asian Association of Vietnam,

! The Consultative Institute for Socio-Economic Development of Rural and Mountainous Areas

(CISDOMA)

! Ninh Van Hiep, SEARAV

! The Consultative Institute for Socio-Economic Development of Rural and Mountainous Areas

(CISDOMA)

! Ass. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Khac Tich, The Consultative Institute for Socio-Economic Development of

Rural and Mountainous Areas (CISDOMA)

! Tran Tu Anh, The Netherlands Red Cross

! Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chu Van Ngoi, Faculty of Geology, Hanoi University of Science

! Ass. Prof. Dr. Le Trinh, Vietnam Association for the Conservation of Nature & Environment

! Environment & Sustainable Development Institute (VESDI)

! Anh Nam, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE)

! The International Support Group on Natural Resources and Environment (ISGE)

! MA. Pham Van Tan, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE)

! Melanie Miltenburg, The Netherlands Red Cross

! Huynh Thu Ba, Sustainable Development Cluster, United Nations Development Programme

(UNDP)

! Pham Thanh Hang, Sustainable Development Cluster, United Nations Development Programme

(UNDP)

! Prof. Dr. Tran Tan Tien, Vietnam National University Hanoi University of Science, Faculty of Hy-

dro-Meteorology & Oceanography

! Assoc. Prof. Tran Thuc, Director, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH)

! Pham Van Duong, The centre of Hydro-meteorological and Environmental Network

! Nguyen Mong Cuong, Research Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development

(RCCCSD)

! Duong Anh Tuyen, Viet Nam Partnership for the Development of Human Resources in Rural Ar-

eas

! Hoang Thai Dai, Ph.D, Water Resources University (WRU)

! Faculty of Planning & Management of Water Resources Development System

! Le Thac Can, Hanoi National University

! Vietnam Environment and Sustainable Development Institute (VESDI)

! Dr. Hoang Minh Hien, Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control

! Disaster Management Centre (DMC)

! Nguyen Thi Van Anh, Social Policy Project, United Nations Children’s Fund

! Gaby Breton, Natural Disaster Mitigation Projects (NDMP)

! Canadian Centre for International Studies and Cooperation (CECI)

! Dr. Lien, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH)



APPENDIX 3 - WORKING TERMINOLOGY

For the purposes of this project we have adopted and used the following definitions, based primarily

on UNISDR terminology (see http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm):

Risk The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries,

property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) re-

sulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vul-

nerable conditions.

Hazard A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may

cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption

or environmental degradation.

Vulnerability The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental

factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the im-

pact of hazards.

Coping capacity The means by which people or organisations use available resources and abili-

ties to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster.

Adaptation Adjustments in response to actual or expected climate change or its effects (‘an-

ticipatory’ or ‘proactive’ adaptation is adaptation that takes place before impacts

of climate change are observed)

Disaster A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing

widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed

the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

Disaster risk

management

The systematic process of using administrative decisions, organisation, opera-

tional skills and capacities to implement policies, strategies and coping capaci-

ties of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and

related environmental and technological disasters. This comprises all forms of

activities, including structural and non-structural measures to avoid (prevention)

or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse effects of hazards.

Mitigation Structural and non-structural measures undertaken to limit the adverse impact

of natural hazards, environmental degradation and technological hazards. NB In

terms of climate change ‘mitigation’ has a distinct meaning: it refers to human

efforts to reduce the sources of (or enhance the sinks for) greenhouse gases.

Preparedness Activities and measures taken in advance to ensure effective response to the

impact of hazards, including the issuance of timely and effective early warnings

and the temporary evacuation of people and property from threatened locations.

Relief / response The provision of assistance or intervention during or immediately after a disaster

to meet the life preservation and basic subsistence needs of those people af-

fected. It can be of an immediate, short-term, or protracted duration.


46 Ref MWH 475000177.001-4 rev. 0

Recovery Decisions and actions taken after a disaster with a view to restoring or improv-

ing the pre-disaster living conditions of the stricken community, while encourag-

ing and facilitating necessary adjustments to reduce disaster risk.

Disaster risk

reduction

(disaster

reduction)

The conceptual framework of elements considered with the possibilities to

minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid (pre-

vention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of haz-

ards, within the broad context of sustainable development.

Capacity building Efforts aimed to develop human skills or societal infrastructures within a com-

munity or organisation needed to reduce the level of risk.

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