Linda Raschke presents:

Auction Market Theory and Technical Analysis: Market Profile meets Wyckoff

AAPTA – May 2012

Copyright © 2012 Linda Raschke and LBRGroup,Inc. All rights reserved.

Auction Market Theory (AMT)

Price /Time + Volume = Value.

The function of the market is to facilitate trade.

Probing higher prices attracts sellers and probing lower prices attracts buyers. The rotations up and down are the process used for “price discovery” , or to discover the price that both sides agree upon, thus establishing “value”.

Auction markets are a dynamic process. AMT helps to explain how markets work and provides reference points where decisions can be made, but is not meant to be a forecasting tool.

Auction markets are a complex, dynamic system. AMT provides a framework to understand the current market situation (balancing or trending) or is it starting to transition from one to the other?

Auction Market Theory (AMT)

Value is based on a perception of “fairness”. When the market spends very little time at a particular price with minimal volume, the price is considered to be “unfair”. Unfair levels show up as price rejection spikes.

For each time period, the market participants actions determine what the “fair” price is or value for that time period.

Vertical movement is called “one time-framing” where the market is out of balance and all market participants want to be on the same side of the market. This is the most profitable trading opportunity. It represents a market out of balance and is caused by a LARGE SHIFT IN CAPITAL.

The market can’t move too far from a value area without the presence of the “Higher Time frame Player”.

Market Profile Charts

Market profile charts show how much time a market spends at a given price and give a visual as to how value is built. A traditional tick chart shows the relationship between Price and Volume at a specific point in time.

The Market Profile “value area” is the price range where 70% of the total trading volume occurred (first standard deviation).

Price action naturally organizes itself into a series of bell shaped curves as a market comes back into balance.

Market Profile Charts

Is the market trending (trading vertically) or is it nontrending (trading sideways)?

A horizontal market has a test of a high (two data points) and a test of the low, thus forming a trading range.

Trading tactics for a range market are very different from trading tactics for a trending market.

The Soybean market is transitioning from a balanced market to a trending state. Each days value area (pink lines)is rising. Note the clues at the bottom

where the market closed above the day’s value area. After two 3-day balancing bars, the price launched into trending action.

Beans now enter a consolidation period where “value” is established at a higher level. The last 13 days of trading form a larger bell

shaped distribution profile.

The next jump up forms an even larger “value” area (which will be shown in the next slide). Note how the market comes into a final

“balance” area before launching into the next trending leg.

Bean market composite volume distribution 3/5 to 4/29 showing first balancing area, and then next larger balance area.

Here is what the corresponding bar chart looks like for July soybeans. The building of “value” areas at higher levels is an important process

for sustainable trends.

This is what happens to a market that has failed to build value areas along the way to support the rise in price. Note the area where price

fell back down to in order to find support.

The breakdown from this extended value area led to “one-timeframing” – a trending environment where all market participants

are sellers. What does the current structure suggest?

The Yen auctioned lower until it found a level where buyers were willing to step in. A rotational environment developed (the market auctions up and down

until price comes back into balance). Value is agreed upon, at least for the short term, between buyers and sellers.

Look how the auction process built a base. This is the compositie profile chart showing the price distribution with volume. Current price

(noted by the dotted blue line) is now above the established value area. Lets go back and look at a previous chart of the daily bars.

What was your first instinct upon seeing this daily bar chart?

Look how the value area has risen to a higher level. Current price is at the far right of the chart. The area above the dotted blue line was

the one timeframing downtrending environment.

Price found support above the “high volume node” or newly formed value area. This led to a new swing up above the previous high.

in.

This was a recent breakdown in the SPs on a 240 minute bar chart.(April 15, 2012)

Price fell out of the upper value area and back into a previous trading range. The price low came in where the dotted blue line is, the lower end of the prior value area. Markets move quickly through

“holes” on the consolidated profiles.

The market found support and now it will start to fill out the “hole” until a broader bell shaped distribution profile is developed. This is the

most common occurrence to see as a trading range is established.

Look how the volume profile has started to fill in the hole. The “point of control”, or high volume node, has now shifted from above to

below the current price, serving as support. (1364)

Elements of Market Profile Structure

Previous Day’s Value Area

Initial Balance (IB = first hour range)

Buying/Selling Extension (move outside of first hour’s range)

Day’s value area. Point of Control = fair value for the day

How does the day develop after early range? A “Normal” day is when 80% of the range occurs in the first hour of trading. This is the most common pattern. How trade develops after the opening and after the IB tells us who is in control of the market.

in.

The Canadian Dollar had an upside breakout from small balancing area at the top of a broad value area. It is now starting to trend. Market Profile is not a forecasting tool though - it can only follow the price action, give an indication that a trend is

transitioning back to a balance, or, indicate a “failed auction”.

The Bonds are in a trading range on this chart. (Bracketing market, balancing area, congestion area and consolidation are all synonyms).

Three Guidelines for trades:

Low volume stops activity.

High volume represents value and is seen as an attractor (the first time traded back down to only!)

Don’t fade moves out of the middle!

Holes in the distribution area provide excellent risk/reward

Cocoa – “long liquidation break” took care of a market that was overly long inventory. This process makes a market stronger. Price quickly retraced back into the previous day’s “hole”. Holes are even more important when they show up over longer distribution periods.

Nat Gas: Look how the market came into perfect balance with a narrow range non trending day. This is a classic formation that very often leads to a trend day. A trend day shows a steady markup throughout the day, opening at one end of the range, closing at

the other with range expansion. This demonstrates strong conviction.

An example of a “failed auction”. Price drove higher out of an established balance point (high volume node), but failed to attract

new buyers at higher prices. Minimal volume traded at the high prices. The “single prints” demonstrate “price rejection”.

Coffee market: Balance bars, and the market fills in holes.

Crude pushed out of a well developed value area. Will it attract volume at this higher price level and establish value? Note the excellent risk/reward point. If price fails to hold the short term support, it will fall back and retrace through the hole to previous value. If it holds this

markup, it can start to trend higher. The red lines indicate the attractors below.

in.

Corn also has an excellent risk/reward spot. If it does not hold the purple line it will fall back down and develop the lower volume trading areas. This could be an excellent

support are to trade against to the long side as well.

Corn – follow up on 15 minute chart.

This is a volume distribution for the Eurocurrency with a ten day look back period. It is right in the middle of value, perfect balance. This

is the worst possible area for initiating a new trade.

Market structure in IBM (May 1, 2012)Condensed profile versus daily bar chart. Price closed at the top of

the established value area. (Now we are going to examine the previous principles over a much greater time period).

Market structure in AAPL (May 1, 2012)Condensed profile versus daily bar chart. Price is below the point of

control and at the lower end of the value area.

The same concepts can be applied to weekly and even monthly data. This weekly chart of the QQQs needs further profile development in

order to form the classic bell shaped curve.

The weekly chart of the Dow, however, shows a beautifully developed profile ready to support a further advance should the “higher time

frame players” choose to step in. 12950 is fair value.

Monthly Dollar Index: Longest line on the board….multi year “fair value”!