Likelihood, Intention, Deduction, Induction

8/6/2019 Likelihood, Intention, Deduction, Induction

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Deductive Argumentsy Premises provide conclusive grounds for the truth of

its conclusion

yValid/Deductive Argumentthe premises of theargument really do assure the truth of its conclusion

with necessity

y Differentiation among the valid/invalid arguments


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Likelihoody The probability of a specified outcome; the chance of something happening; probability; the state of

being probable.

y In all likelihood the meeting will be cancelled.y The likelihood is that the inflation rate will continue to rise.

y (mathematics) Shorthand for likelihood function; the probability that a real world experiment wouldgenerate a specific datum, as a function of the parameters of a mathematical model.

y Likeness, resemblance.y "There is no likelihood between pure light and black darkness, or between righteousness and

reprobation." (Sir W. Raleigh)

y

(archaic) Appearance, show, sign, expression.y "What of his heart perceive you in his face by any likelihood he showed to-day ?" (Shak)

y Synonyms (likeliness)

y Antonyms (unlikelihood)


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Intentiony An agent's intention in performing an action is his or her

specific purpose in doing so, the end or goal that is aimedat, or intended to accomplish.

y Whether an action is successful or unsuccessful depends atleast on whether the intended result was brought about.

y Other consequences of someone's acting are calledunintentional.

y

However, recent research in experimental philosophy hasshown that other factors may also matter for whether ornot an action is counted as intentional. Intentionalbehavior can also be just thoughtful and deliberate goal-directedness.


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y In recent years, there has been a large amount of work done on the concept of intentionalaction.

y This work has aimed at illuminating and understanding the factors which inf luencepeople's judgments of whether an action was done intentionally.

y For instance, research has shown that unintended side effects are often considered to bedone intentionally if the side effect is considered bad and the person acting knew theside effect would occur before acting.

y Yet when the side effect is considered good, people generally don't think it was doneintentionally, even if the person knew it would occur before acting.

y The most well-known example involves a chairman who implements a new businessprogram for the sole purpose to make money but ends up affecting the environment inthe process. If he implements his business plan and in the process he ends up helping theenvironment, then people generally say he unintentionally helped the environment; if he

implements his business plan and in the process he ends up harming the environment,then people generally say he intentionally harmed the environment. The important pointis that in both cases his only goal was to make money. While there have been manyexplanations proposed for why the "side-effect effect" occurs, researchers on this topichave not yet reached a consensus.


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Problem solvingy Problem solving is a mental process and is part of the

larger problem process that includes problem findingand problem shaping.

y Considered the most complex of all intellectualfunctions, problem solving has been defined ashigher-order cognitive process that requires themodulation and control of more routine or

fundamental skills.y Problem solving occurs when an organism or an

artificial intelligence system needs to move from agiven state to a desired goal state.


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Problem Solving and

Decision MakingyWe solve problems and make decisions

everyday/all the day


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Problem solving overview

y Defining and gathering

y

Alternativesy Creative problem solving solutions

y Implementation

y Prioritizing tasks

y Graphic overview of problem solving process

y Adaptive decision making

y Managing by exception

y Thinking creatively


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Flexibility in Problem Solvingy This procedure looks as if one moves neatly from step

to step. This isn't the case. These steps simply provide

a structure for working on the problem.y They overlap: you may have to return to earlier steps,

or work them simultaneously,to find the best solution.


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Examples of flexibility:y Information gathering occurs in all stepsfrom

recognition of the problem to implementation of its

solutiony New information may force you to redefine the

problem

yAlternatives may be unworkable, and you'll have to

find new onesy Some steps may be combined or abbreviated


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Likelihood, Intention, Deduction, Induction

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