How to Align the Digital with the Ecological Transition

Lorenz HiltyUniversity of Zurich, Switzerland

Empa Materials Science and Technology, Switzerland

AnalogDigital

UnsustainableSustainable

Image Source: Megan Hollis,Techsys Digital (TD) Blog, 2015

The rate of global material extraction is increasing

Source: United Nations Industrial Development Organization: Green Growth: From labor to resource productivity. Best practice examples, initiatives and policy options. 2013

+89% Metals

+60% Fossil Fuels

+133% Minerals

+35% Biomass (Food, Wood, …)

≈ 10 tons per person year; problematic: scarce metals, fossil fuels, fertilizer minerals, parts of biomass

We need dematerialization

Dematerialization

In production: Create more value with less material resource inputClose material loops.= increase resource productivity

In consumption: Be happy with less heavy stuff.Slow down.

Digital ICT could be the perfect enabler ofdematerialization,

but it isn’t

because we are using this technology the wrong way.

Arguments:1. Despite Moore’s Law, we are using more

and more material for ICT hardware.2. Despite Koomey’s Law, we are using more

and more energy for ICT services.3. Despite increasing service-sector outputs,

total material requirements are not decreasing.

Arguments:1. Despite Moore’s Law, we are using more

and more material for ICT hardware.2. Despite Koomey’s Law, we are using more

and more energy for ICT services.3. Despite increasing service-sector outputs,

total material requirements are not decreasing.

2011

Intel 4004

2300 (2.3*103)transistors on one chip

Intel CORE i7 3960X

2.27 Billion (2.3*109)transistors on one chip

1971

ICT hardware is dematerializing – a success story

In only 40 years, the number of transistors on a microchip has increased by a factor of one million.

The macro-level effect of micro-level dematerialization

Example:Development of mobile phone use in Switzerland 1990-2003

Source: Hilty L.M., Behrendt S., Binswanger M., Bruinink A., Erdmann L., Froehlich J., Köhler A., Kuster N., Som C., Wuertenberger F. (2005): The Precautionary Principle in the Information Society – Effects of Pervasive Computing on Health and Environment. Swiss Center for Technology Assessment (TA-SWISS), Bern, p. 187

Total physical mass [tons]

Physical mass per phone [g]

0

50

100

150

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

1

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Num

ber o

f use

rs [M

io.]

Half of the periodic table is included in ICT hardware

Chemical elements usedto build digital electronic devices

Mining activities for scarce metals are increasing

Mining under poor working conditions Informal recycling: a form of urban mining

Short service life of “clean” devices

Example:Informal recycling in in Delhi, India

Source: Empa, Technology and Society Laboratory

Manual extraction of copper from printed wiring boards in Delhi, India. Typical backyard company with 12 workers. Yield: 1-2 tons/month

Source: Empa, Technology and Society Laboratory

Example:Informal recycling in in Guiyu, China

Source: Empa, Technology and Society Laboratory

Example:Semi-formal recycling in in Cape Town, South Africa

Source: Empa, Technology and Society Laboratory

Arguments:1. Despite Moore’s Law, we are using more

and more material for ICT hardware.2. Despite Koomey’s Law, we are using more

and more energy for ICT services.3. Despite increasing service-sector outputs,

total material requirements are not decreasing.

ICT hardware is “de-energizing”– another success story

In 70 years of electronic computing history, the energy efficiency of processors has increased by a factor of a million millions.

Thousand

Million

Billion

Trillion

Quadrillion

How many computations can a processor execute for 1 kWh?

Source: Koomey, J., Berard, S., Sanchez, M. & Wong, H. (2011): Implications of Historical Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing. Annals of the History of Computing, IEEE, 33 (3): 46-54

K

oomey

’s Law

For my first laptop from the 1980ies, if it had to perform like my today’s laptop, I would have needed a “personal power plant”.

Illustration of energy efficiency progress

More than 100 kWh per year and person for ICT since 2007

Source: Aebischer, B., Hilty, L.M. (2015):The Energy Demand of ICT: A Historical Perspective and Current Methodological Challenges. In: ICT Innovations for Sustainability. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing. Springer, pp. 71-103

Global energy demand of ICT is increasing fast, despite the increasing energy efficiency of all devices involved.

Arguments:1. Despite Moore’s Law, we are using more

and more material for ICT hardware.2. Despite Koomey’s Law, we are using more

and more energy for ICT services.3. Despite increasing service-sector outputs,

total material requirements are not decreasing.

1. AgricultureForestry,Fishing,Mining

2. Manufacturing

3. Services

4. InformationServices

C. Clark’s theory of progression to a post-industrial economy

Will deindustrialization lead to demateralization?

Countries with highest service sector output

United St

atesJapan

United Kingdom

Italy

CanadaRussi

a

Australia

Mexico

Turkey

0

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4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

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16,000

Service sector output in Billion US-$

United St

atesJapan

United Kingdom

Italy

CanadaRussi

a

Australia

Mexico

Turkey

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Service sector output in Billion US-$Per capita service sector output in US-$

40 tons of material resources are extracted per person, of which 67% outside our country.

23

Example: TMR of Switzerland

40 tons per person are ≈ factor 4 above the global average

AnalogDigital

UnsustainableSustainable

Image Source: Megan Hollis,Techsys Digital (TD) Blog, 2015

What would it mean to use ICT the right way?

How would we use ICT in a world of scarce natural resources?(We live in such a world but are not aware of the scarcity)

How would we use ICT if prices of all products would tell the truth about resource depletion, pollution, land use change,

occupational health/labor conditions, and other externalities?

Vision 1: Self-sufficient communications infrastructure

With further progress in energy efficiency of ICT and energy harvesting devices, it could be possible to create a self-sufficient communications infrastructure with long-lasting small nodes needing no external energy supply.

Precursors: Energy harvesting network nodes, ad-hoc wireless network protocols

Vision 2: Collaboration in virtual environments replaces travel

Physical travel with high carbon intensity

Virtual meetings:Connecting people via ICT

Collaboration in virtual environments

Source: Coroama, V.C., Moberg, Å., Hilty, L.M. (2015): Dematerialization through Electronic Media? In: ICT Innovations for Sustainability. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing. Springer, 405-421

Vision 3: Recycling robots powered by abundant renewable energy

The Flintstones’ garbage disposal pig

Artificial Intelligence version of recycling device, working only during electricity supply peaks (store energy as material purity)

digitize

Image Source: Megan Hollis,Techsys Digital (TD) Blog, 2015

What’s your vision of dematerialization?

Thank you!