LIFE III – EC4MACS Kick-Off Meeting 06/07 March 2007

Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

EC4MACS

European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies

Overview of the 5 years work plan

Background

• Clean air and climate change are central fields of EU environmental policy.

• New scientific findings demonstrate important interactions and potentially large economic synergies between air pollution control and greenhouse gas mitigation.

• Model analyses, based on latest scientific findings and validated data, can provide valuable information for cost-effective policy strategies.

• The European Commission envisages for 2011/12 a review and revisions of their air quality legislation and the European Climate Change Programme.

Partners

• IIASA (AT) – Coordinator, integrated assessment

• MNP/RIVM (NL) - Modelling of environmental impacts

• NTUA Athens (GR) – Energy projections

• Uni Bonn, EuroCare (DE) – Agricultural projections

• LUATh Thessaloniki (GR) – Transport modelling

• Mike Holland, AEAT, Metroeconomica (UK) – Economic benefit analysis

• (MET.NO (NO) – Modelling of atmospheric chemistry and transport)

• JRC-Ispra

• JRC-Sevilla

Objectives

• Providing scientific and economic analyes for the revision of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air and the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)

• Improvement of existing models by including recent scientific findings.

• Update of input data

• Accceptance of modelling tools and input data by stakeholders

• Make modelling tools available to the public over the Internet.

Expected outcomes

• Policy analysis on cost-effective strategies to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU with– Updated scientific insights– Improved modelling tools– Validated input data

• To support reviews of Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and ECCP

• Interim assessment in 2008

• Final assessment in 2011

Modelling tools

• GAINS-Europe/Asia (IIASA)• PRIMES energy model for EU (NTUA)• CAPRI agricultural model for EU (UniBonn, EuroCare)• EMEP atmospheric chemistry and transport model (met.no)• CCE ecosystems impact assessment (MNP)• GEM-E3 general equilibrium macro-economic impacts

(NTUA)• TREMOVE transport model (LAUTh)• Benefit assessment (MH, AEAT, MetroEconomica)

• TM5 Hemispheric chemical transport model• POLES global energy model

The EC4MACS model system

GAINSPOLES PRIMES

CAPRI

TM5 EMEP

CCE-CL

TREMOVE

BENEFITS

Global/hemisphericboundary conditions

European policy drivers

Energy

Transport

Atmosphere

Agriculture

Ecosystems

GEM-E3

Cost-effectiveness

Impacts

Tasks

• Update models, where necessary, to incorporate new scientific insights

• Scientific peer review of all models

• Improve model interfaces

• Validate input data with stakeholders

• Produce interim assessment in 2009

• Produce final assessment in 2011

– Actual policy analyses not necessarily included in this project

• Project administration, financial reporting

General work plan

• 2007: – Methodological improvements

• 2008: – Data collection – Feedbacks on methodological improvements

• 2009– Interim assessment– Methodology workshop

• 2010– Uncertainty assessment – Bilateral consultations on input data

• 2011– Final assessment

General work plan

Methodology Data Dissemination Policy application

2007 Improvements

2008 30.4: Interim documentation

Data collection 31.10. Consultation on methodology over Internet

2009 30.7. Revised documentation

31.1.: Documentation of interim data

30.4. Internet access31.10. Methodology workshop

30.4. Interim assessment report

2010 30.4. Uncertainty Bilateral consultations on data30.7. Workshop on baseline

2011 30.4. Documentation

31.7. Final baseline31.10. Final policy scenarios

Main deliverables to Commissionby IIASA

• 31/7/2008: Interim model methodology

• 31/7/2009: Interim assessment

• 31/10/2010: Uncertainties

• 30/7/2011: Final baseline projections

• 30/9/2011: Final methodology documentation

• 30/10/2011: Policy scenarios

• 30/4/2012: Final report

• 31/1, 31/7 each year: Progress reports

• 31/7/2009: Mid-term report

Main deliverables of each work packageto IIASA

• 30/4/2008: Report on interim modelling methodology

• 30/1/2009: Documentation of data for interim assessment

• 30/7/2009: Report on revised modelling methodology

• 30/4/2010: Report on uncertainty analysis

• 31/1/2011: Report on final modelling methodology

• 30/4/2011: Documentation of data for final assessment

• 31/10/2011: (Re-)analysis of final policy scenarios

Milestones for interaction with stakeholders

• 31/7/2007: EC4MACS web site

• 31/10/2008: Internet consultation on interim methodology

• 30/4/2009: Internet access to input data

• 31/10/2009: Stakeholders workshop on methodology

• 2009-2010: Bilateral consultations on input data

• 31/7/2010: Stakeholders workshop on baseline projections

Tasks for the first year

• Methodological improvements

• Development of hard-wired model interfaces

• Any grand new ideas for additional analyses

• Testing of financial reporting routines