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The Lifecycle of Evolution: Power, Progress, and Purpose in the Advanceof CivilizationWilliam Halal a

a George Washington University, Washington, DC.

To cite this Article Halal, William(2002) 'The Lifecycle of Evolution: Power, Progress, and Purpose in the Advance ofCivilization', World Futures, 58: 4, 310 — 328To link to this Article: DOI: 10.1080/02604020213005URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02604020213005

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WORLD FUTURES, 58: 311–328, 2002

Copyright © 2002, Taylor & Francis

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DOI: 10.1080/02604020290036024

THE LIFECYCLE OF EVOLUTION:

POWER, PROGRESS, AND PURPOSE IN THE ADVANCEOF CIVILIZATION

WILLIAM E. HALAL

George Washington University, Washington, DC

This paper presents a framework for understanding that rather mysterious processby which life evolved into diverse biological species, then produced humankind,founded civilization, and is now creating high-tech societies that are entering space.A macrotechnological analysis reveals that evolution fundamentally consists of sevenwaves of technological innovation forming a “Life Cycle of Evolution,” which isroughly comparable to the ordinary life cycles of all organisms. Finally, I note thatthis organic process of planetary development is drawn inexorably toward height-ened awareness, existential choices, and other transcendent concerns for the samereason all phases of progress have evolved—out of sheer necessity.

KEYWORDS: Evolution, technology, social change, life cycle.

The evolution of life from simple organisms to human civilization is so obviousthat children readily grasp the concept when visiting any museum of natural history.Yet in other respects, evolution remains highly controversial because it spans anenormously long past, and it raises provocative questions about an uncertain future.

Great confusion persists over whether life gets better or worse, and we are noteven clear about the nature of progress itself. What exactly is it that progresses,increases or improves? Physical growth, such as the number of people and theirwealth? Or is it subjective factors, such as quality of life and happiness? Controversyover the causes of evolution reflect a similar dichotomy. Most educated people sup-port scientific theories of Darwinian evolution, but many others believe that life isguided by transcendent forces.

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The author gratefully acknowledges reviews of earlier drafts by Marcelo Foresti de Matheus Cota,Peter and Trudy Johnson-Lenz, Robert Theobald, Israel Dror, Michael Marien, Jerome Glenn, and StuartUmpleby.

Address correspondence to: William E. Halal, Department of Management Science, School of Busi-ness and Public Management, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052. E-mail:[email protected]

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WILLIAM E. HALAL312

Such issues persist because we lack a theory that can explain how and why civili-zation has evolved, so important questions are left unaddressed (Marien, 1976). Whatforce drives evolution forward? What purpose is accomplished by its progress? Andwhere are we headed ultimately?

This paper attempts to answer such questions by analyzing what I call the “LifeCycle of Evolution” (LCE), that long-term evolutionary trend that developed bio-logical species, primitive humans, Agrarian Civilization, the Industrial Era, a Ser-vice Economy, and today’s Information Age. Since the focal point in this process isthe shift to new modes of technology—agriculture, manufacturing, services, infor-mation—the analysis can be thought of as technological forecasting at the “macro”level. Macrotechnological change transcends specific inventions and industries tofocus on how entire technical fields drive social change.

The first section of the paper shows that evolution moves up a hierarchy of sevendevelopmental stages, each distinguished by its unique “technical base.” Then, wesee how waves of technological innovation cause the sequential rise and fall of thesestages, noting the distinctive nature of each corresponding social order. The thirdsection shows how the stages comprise an organic life cycle—the LCE—and it iden-tifies three inflection points in this cycle. I conclude by using this framework toanswer the questions posed above.

Evolution is an enormously complex process, of course, encompassing cosmic,biological, and cultural phases, so no one perspective can capture its full signifi-cance. The LCE seems useful, however, because it shows that technological changedrives a cycle of organic development of the entire planet, although on a scale ofsuch magnitude that almost defies comprehension. We are not used to thinking insuch broad terms, but the Earth as a whole appears to be evolving through its ownlife cycle that is roughly similar to the life cycle of ordinary organisms, but vastlylarger in scope and duration. By carefully seeking a few meaningful patterns in thisgrand drama, I think we can identify the characteristic path that civilization followsin the great scheme of things and gain a faint glimpse of where we are going.

THE TECHNOLOGICAL BASIS OF EVOLUTION

The key to understanding evolution lies in viewing the rapid changes of our timeas cultural equivalents of biological evolution. Theodosius Dobzhansky (1962) notedthat “Biological and cultural evolution are parts of the same process.” Humans todayare not very different genetically from their ancient ancestors, yet civilization hasprogressed enormously since then. The dramatic changes occurring now—comput-erization, biogenetics, etc.—are a result of technical advances created by sophisti-cated societies.

Table 1 summarizes the seven stages that are believed to comprise the entire LCEusing data from well-established sources (Sagan, 1977). Biological evolution com-prises the first stage, while the remaining describe cultural forms of evolution. Thefirst six stages are historic fact, while the last—the Existential Era—is a logical butsomewhat speculative projection.

The central principle in this theory is that all seven stages are driven by techno-logical progress. Technology is defined here as the application of knowledge to solve


313

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314

practical problems. This includes not only the hardware we normally associate withtechnology, but abstract or soft forms of technology as well, such as biological evo-lution—“the technology of life.” In a technical sense, species evolve when informa-tion stored in two sets of DNA molecules is combined sexually to produce betteradapted offspring.

Using this broader definition, the dominant technology has moved from biologi-cal reproduction, to the crude tools of the stone age, the agricultural technology offarming, the factories of industrialization, the institutional structures of modern soci-eties, and today to information technology. As we shall see, even “spiritual” methodsare increasingly used to alter awareness and make difficult choices—“technologiesof consciousness” (Vaughan, 1982).

All of these stages are distinguished by a unique form of technology because theprimary determinant of each stage is its “technical base”—the basic “tools” used toconstruct any social order. The prevailing technology determines the type of workpeople do, their social institutions, and central values—in short, the nature of theentire social order. Marshall McLuhan (1964) noted, “Any technology creates a to-tally new human environment,” and Arthur C. Clarke (1973) summed it up simply,“Tools invented man.” Of course, technology is derived from scientific findings,creative ideas, and other cultural innovations. But the conditions of life do not changeuntil this knowledge is used widely to alter the social order.

This perspective illustrates the fundamental unity underlying the evolutionaryprocess. All forms of evolution create superior structural forms through small tenta-tive advances, leaving the best adapted to survive because they are the most func-tional. This is true for biological evolution—in which the DNA code represents asuperior pattern for perpetuating the species—as well as the invention of better ma-chines, social structures, information systems, etc., which represent superior toolsfor social progress. These various types of evolution all stem from the same basicprocess of adaptation as life experiments to improve itself through a struggle forsurvival of the most fit; the only difference is that in cultural evolution the struggletakes place among competing social artifacts rather than biological organisms.

From this more general perspective, the same evolutionary process that requiredbillions of years to create life has accelerated during the past few decades whenscience and technology began to advance dramatically. Table 1 shows that as thedominant technology becomes more sophisticated, the corresponding form of orga-nization becomes more complex, and the source of energy that is drawn on becomesmore powerful. And today, the unusual power of the Information Revolution is rap-idly creating new knowledge—the very heart of all innovation—accelerating therise of civilization into uncharted territory.

CIVILIZATION ADVANCES ON WAVES OF INNOVATION

Obviously, evolution does not move through these stages in discrete steps. Figure1 shows how the stages in Table 1 form successive waves of technological progress.A more advanced technology rises to challenge the status quo, it causes the old socialorder to yield to a new social order, the new era then flourishes for a while, and itfinally recedes to lay a foundation for the next wave to repeat this process again.

WILLIAM E. HALAL


Figu

re 1

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evo

luti

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315


316

Thus, evolution advances along the crest of waves of technological innovation.Civilization began when the invention of farming permitted stable communities

that formed Agrarian Societies. Later, manufacturing technology introduced the In-dustrial Age and began to automate farming, reaching a crossover point about 1850when factories replaced farms as the primary employer. The next crossover pointoccurred at 1950 when the automation of factories moved the bulk of the labor forceto white collar work (Bell, 1973).

The Service Era then emerged based on the use of “social technology.” Althoughthe concept of “social technology” is not generally understood, it also fits the broaderdefinition used here. Just as physical technology is derived from applications of physi-cal science, social technology draws on various social sciences to design and leadsocial systems (Conger, 1973). For example, the study of “management” attracts thelargest enrollments at colleges today because of the great need to apply findingsfrom psychology, sociology, economics, organization theory, and so on to managecomplex institutions (business, government, etc.) employing clerks, salespeople,managers, and other service workers who operate today’s elaborate infrastructure ofinterlocking social systems (Ginzberg & Vojta, 1981).

Just as in previous stages, service economies are being automated by the nexthigher level—information technology. The computer is eliminating clerical work(automatic bank tellers, word processing), sales (online marketing), middle manage-ment (the virtual organization), and other routine service tasks. The crossover pointto the Knowledge Era occurred about 2000 A.D. when a majority of the workforcebegan using intelligent information systems in homes and offices connected by glo-bal communications networks such as the Internet.

Beyond the Information Era, we may witness a “Spiritual Revolution” poweredby “mental/spiritual technology” to produce an “Existential Age.” This is specula-tive, obviously, but it follows logically from the order of increasing abstraction asevolution progresses from farming, to industry, to social relations, to information,and finally to spiritual concerns. Toynbee (1954) observed an historic trend towardthe “etherealization of life.” Spirituality is often dismissed as ignorance or fantasy,but that’s because its very nature transcends rational logic. As we shall see, spiritcomprises that vast domain beyond knowledge.

To keep the discussion focused on reality, let’s ignore the “supernatural” implica-tions by thinking of spirit as “the human state of mind.” Webster’s Dictionary(McKechnie, 1979) defines “spirit” as “Will, consciousness, frame of mind, disposi-tion, mood. As in high spirits.” This prosaic spirituality is simply that changing senseof awareness we all experience while passing through various states of conscious-ness every day. For example, consider the altered mood produced by alcohol anddrugs, practices such as meditation or prayer, social rituals, and ceremonies, the aes-thetic impact of art and music, physical activity such as jogging or dancing, andmany other factors that have been shown to affect the mind (Smith, 1975; Ferguson,1980; Panati, 1980).

An impressive body of evidence is accumulating to demonstrate the utility ofspiritual technology. Medical research shows the strong impact of mental attitudeson health. The use of spiritual practices is growing in business, sports, and politics.Roughly 1,000 books appeared recently with “soul” in their title (Halal, 2001). These

WILLIAM E. HALAL


THE LIFE CYCLE OF EVOLUTION 317

are not usually considered “technologies” but they fit the definition used earlier.Mental/spiritual technologies are used to shape emotions, mood, understanding, andother facets of awareness to cope with life’s challenges.

Thus, spirit is more than “bliss” or “goodness”—it is a state of mind that is mani-fested in “existential” acts. As many philosophers have noted, life is actually livedmoment-by-moment as we make crucial decisions that determine the course of events.And because spirit sets our perception of reality itself, all behavior flows out of thisprivate “sense of being” or “stream of consciousness” that people inhabit. Manyclaim the biggest problems in modern society—crime, drug abuse, sexual promiscu-ity, conflict, etc.—stem from the lack of worthy values, the absence of emotionalsupport, and other failures of spirit. Spiritual technology offers a means by whichpeople can gain control of their lives, and so the Existential Era represents a vastfrontier beyond the Information Age in which society can be guided more effectively(Halal, 2001).

Spirituality can be misused, of course, like anything else. However, I later showthat it seems destined to rise in importance as escalating complexity, massive change,social disorder, and other challenges of our time demand higher levels of insight,clarity of mind, social cohesion, and the sheer moral will needed to make toughexistential choices. Spiritual matters may appear mysterious now, but people living amere century ago would have been equally mystified by TV, computers, space travel,and other technologies we take for granted today. Arthur C. Clarke (1973) noted thatfuture technologies always appear to be magical.

A few caveats seem necessary to clarify the limitations of this framework. Obvi-ously, these trends are restricted to industrialized nations while much of the worldremains at the agrarian level. And higher forms of technology have always been usedto some extent, so in a sense nothing is really new. Ancient societies employed socialtechnology (governments, armies, etc.), information technology (hieroglyphics, etc.),and spiritual technology (religious rituals). The stages described here occur whensome function develops into a formal, rational, more powerful technology. It thenbecomes the principle task for the majority of the workforce instead of remaining theconcern of a small elite. In short, a higher function matures.

What seems clear, however, is that civilization progresses up a hierarchical ordertoward “nonphysical” technologies that offer increasingly greater power. Social in-teraction and information are abstract phenomena that behave very differently thanthe physical world. Cooperative relationships can harness the energy within a socialsystem, and knowledge increases when shared (Halal, 1998). Mental/spiritual tech-nology is more powerful still because beliefs motivate all behavior. The vast powerof this domain was illustrated nicely when politicians attended a rally held by Rever-end Billy Graham: “We think of ourselves as being in the business of trying to moti-vate people. But that! That was power” (Russakoff, 1981).

To carry this line of thought further, many scholars think the human spirit is con-nected to some “universal” form of spiritual energy. J. K. Rowling, the creative au-thor of the Harry Potter books, described the source of her inspiration this way: “Itfeels as if someone zapped the ideas into my head.” So, we come to the fascinatingpossibility that this entire evolutionary process may be powered by some poorlyunderstood spiritual force that flows from the top of the technology hierarchy, where


Figu

re 2

. The

Life

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f Evo

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on.

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it then cascades like a waterfall (Troncale, 1978) down through the lower levels inthe form of information, then social behavior, and finally as physical artifacts.

THE ORGANIC CYCLE OF PLANETARY LIFE

The long-term trend formed by the data in Table 1 can also be plotted, as in Figure2, to illustrate the complete life cycle of the planet. The time horizon is portrayed inlogarithmic scales to compress these enormous time differences into a comprehen-sible figure.1 On an ordinary scale, the curve would simply run flat and then turn upat a right angle. This shows that the entire rise of civilization takes place in an infini-tesimally short period by cosmic standards, as though the planet suddenly came alivein a flash of creative energy (Jantsch, 1975, 1981).

Spread out on a logarithmic scale, however, the LCE forms a well-ordered pro-gression of developmental stages that make up the life cycle of the planet. This is thesame S-curve that characterizes the growth cycle of all life forms: a culture of bacte-ria, a human being, or the life of a planet. In other words, the entire planet, includingall life forms on it, comprise a single living, growing organism in its own right—Gaia (Lovelock, 1988).

The organic quality is also seen in the way these stages accumulate as social stratato produce a complex system in which all levels interact. As noted earlier, lowerstages create the conditions that make later stages possible—“push.” For instance,complex species like apes had to evolve before humans could emerge, which permit-ted farming, which then provided the resources for industrialization, which pavedthe way for a service society, and so on. Conversely, the growth of higher stagesprovides more powerful capabilities that draw the system forward—“pull.” Farmingwas automated by industrialization, which became more productive using large or-ganizations, which in turn are being transformed by IT. Thus, all levels grow con-tinuously as the entire structure is pushed from the bottom and pulled from the top.

The LCE is revealing because it helps identify three inflection points: the “Take-Off Point” when rapid growth begins, the “Pivot Point” marking the shift from growthto stability, and the “Saturation Point” of planetary maturity. The following discus-sion describes the path of this extremely long cycle, focusing especially on the sig-nificance of these key points.

The LCE began 10 billion years ago when cosmic evolution formed the Earthfollowing the Big Bang. The planet then slumbered through a long gestation periodas geological evidence shifted continental plates and biological evolution producedmyriad species. Humans appeared during the last .03 percent of this time.

Then a unique event occurred. Figure 2 shows that the transition from B.C. toA. D. coincides with the Take-Off point when the LCE begins rising steeply upwardto commence its great ascent through higher levels of development. This may clarifyour understanding of those crucial few hundred years that mark the beginning ofmodern time. Moses, Christ, Mohammed, Buddha, and the other great religious leadersapparently served the historic purpose of harnessing the spiritual energy flowingfrom the top of the hierarchy of evolution, thereby fostering the creative growth ofthe human spirit that produced the rapid rise of modern civilization.

Since that time, evolution has accelerated rapidly by almost any measure of change:


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world population, the speed of travel, energy usage, and countless other indicatorsall bend sharply upward. This striking pattern of accelerating growth becomes ap-parent by noting that the times between stages are consistently shorter by orders ofmagnitude: four billion years of biological evolution were required to develop hu-mankind; another three million years passed before the onset of the Agrarian Age;roughly nine thousand years later, the Industrial Revolution occurred; about onehundred years after that the Service Era began; and approximately five decadeswere needed until the Information Age arrived.

This broader perspective has emerged only recently as the power of informationtechnology began to clarify our view of the evolutionary pathway. Now the Earthseems alive, growing like a huge organism through a life cycle of development thatmay occur on other planets throughout the universe. Marshall McLuhan (1972) de-scribed this new awareness using a vivid analogy:

Today, it is the instant speed of electric information that, for the first time, permitseasy recognition of the patterns and the formal contours of change and develop-ment. The entire world, past and present, now reveals itself to us like a growingplant in an enormously accelerated movie.

The acceleration of evolution reaches its peak at the Pivot Point, or what FritjofCapra (1972) called the Turning Point. This point seems to have been passed in 1975to mark that unique period when physical growth begins to slow down to approachequilibrium. Note that although growth starts decreasing at this point, the rate ofgrowth is greatest at the same time.2 The result is that civilization is being virtuallyrocketed from an endlessly long, quiescent past into a far more sophisticated future.

This critical inflection also seems to reverse polarity throughout the system—from growth to stability, conflict to cooperation, physical to transcendent concerns,and so on—which is why the past few decades seem so hectic and rife with change.The controversial issues that have arisen to challenge the old industrial order—envi-ronmental constraints, population growth, globalization, etc.—comprise critical shiftsthat deflect the LCE in this new direction. The world had always faced massiveproblems, of course, but the Club of Rome called this unusual constellation of inter-related world crises the “World Problematique”—a metacrisis that can only be solvedby transforming global concepts, systems, and attitudes (Peccei, 1977).

A few well-established facts illustrate the unusual significance of this “crisis ofglobal maturity” that distinctly marks the Pivot Point. Estimates indicate that worldpopulation should stabilize at about 10 billion people during the next three to fourdecades. Moreover, industrialized nations (the U.S., Europe, and Japan) only ac-count for about one billion people, while the other nine billion or so will live in lessdeveloped nations. Most of these people are eager for the same material comfortsnow enjoyed by prosperous nations, so they are intent on industrializing rapidly.Thus, the number of people living at industrial levels is likely to leap from one bil-lion to almost ten billion, increasing the World Problematique by a factor of at leastfive and possibly ten.

This means that the level of industrial production, competition for world markets,change and innovation, demand for scarce resources, material consumption, envi-

WILLIAM E. HALAL



ronmental degradation, and cultural diversity will all grow five-to-ten fold over thenext two to three decades. The inescapable conclusion is that the world faces anunprecedented challenge of creating a far more sophisticated global system that canmanage this leap in growth on a planet already suffering from congestion, conflict,scarcity, environmental stress, and complexity. Robert Shapiro, CEO of Monsanto,echoes the inevitability of this historic change:

No demographer questions [the forecast] that the population will double around2030. Without radical change, the kind of world implied by those numbers is un-thinkable. The whole system has to change. (Magretta, 1997)

A useful way to grasp the significance of this event is to compare the LCE to ahuman life cycle. In scientific terms, ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny. People passthrough essentially similar stages, and today the world seems to be working outroughly the same crisis that tests every youth. The typical adolescent has reachedalmost complete physical growth but has not yet developed the social, intellectual,and moral skills needed to function in a complex world. This is almost precisely thestate of modern nations today. These societies possess physical technologies that candestroy all life, but they have not learned to control this power with collaborativeinstitutions, useful information systems, and shared values.

The concept of the LCE serves as a useful analogy, therefore, because it is roughlysimilar to the challenges people wrestle with in their own lives. The main differenceis that the planet’s life span covers eons of time, progress seems imperceptibly slow,the system is infinitely larger and more complex, and the stakes are vastly higher.From this view, the Problematique represents a rite of passage from adolescence tomaturity for humankind, just as the crisis of puberty ushers the child into adulthood.

Of course, similar claims have often been made in the past. World War I wascalled “The war to end all wars,” and there have been many other times when peoplethought the future hinged on their particular period of history. But there is goodevidence that suggests the present is unique in critical ways. Herman Kahn and JohnPhelps (1979) noted that the rate of population growth peaked during the 1970s, andLinstone and Simmonds (1977) concluded in a survey of the literature: “Both opti-mists and pessimists . . . agree that the U.S. is at a transition . . . from accelerating todecelerating growth.” It is also possible that the world may not surmount this crisisdue to war, economic collapse, or environmental disaster. So evolution does not as-sure success but simply offers a difficult test of fitness that an indifferent universepresents to all life.

Continued progress seems most likely, however, because evolution is a naturalprocess that far exceeds human powers. If a planet forms a great organism movingthrough its own life cycle, human crises of this sort comprise mere blips on thisgrand process of global development. The long course of history makes it clear thatcivilization has evolved toward ever larger social systems—from tribes, to cities, tonation-states, to superpowers—inexorably leading toward the next logical step of aunified world order.

The Knowledge Revolution is now the most powerful force on Earth, accelerat-ing technological innovation, restructuring institutions, and unifying the globe. Glo-


bal networks like the Internet allow anyone to work, learn, and shop around theworld, creating some form of “global intelligence” as humanity coalesces into a singleconscious organism (Russell, 1983). And in a decade or two, when this “central ner-vous system for the planet” is completed, the Information Age will mature and fadeinto the past, just as all previous eras have done. We are then likely to move beyondknowledge for the same reason all other technologies first appeared: spiritual tech-nologies will be necessary to overcome the crisis of maturity.

This may seem idealistic, but dramatic shifts in awareness occur at each crossoverpoint. In the Industrial Age, who would have possibly believed that Communismwould collapse? That the Internet would permeate all aspects of life? That businesswould focus on managing knowledge? In a similar way, the Information Age mayyield to the Existential Age about 2020 ± 10 years, shortly before globalization reachescrisis levels around 2030 (Halal, 2001).

Passage through the global crisis of maturity should then allow the Earth to ap-proach equilibrium at roughly 2050 A.D. ± 20 years. At this Saturation Point, thepopulation will stabilize, the world will be unified into some type of coherent globalorder and the planet managed as a steady-state system of dynamic equilibrium thatpermits internal change. Although physical growth would culminate at this point,metaphysical progress may grow indefinitely.

A previous study identified global supertrends and integrated them into a scenariosumming up what the world should look like when it stabilizes about the mid-21stcentury (Halal, 1993). This “Scenario of Global Maturity” is shown in Box 1, andcan be thought of as the “standard future” from which others may deviate, some

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Source: Halal, W. E. 1993. World 2000. Futures 25: 5–21.

Box 1The Scenario of Global Maturity

In 2050 AD, the world achieved a mature state of development marked by a fewdistictive features. Global population peaked at 11 billion people who mainly live inknowledge societies, although some remain at industrial or agrarian stages. Pow-erful information systems are used to manage the complexity of this global civiliza-tion and to advance the pursuit of knowledge and technological breakthroughs. Theresulting ten-fold leap of industrialization forced all techno-economic systems to bemade ecologically benign, yet minor environmental crashes still occur. Society workshard to curb the destructive tendencies of people with limited success, so occasionalwars, crime, and other forms of violence persist. Most nations are part of a func-tioning global community, but a decentralized form of governance also nourishesdiversity. These differences are held together by an international culture that agreeson common standards of behavior and a general set of spiritual values that unify theworld into a functioning whole. Now that the planet contains almost 10 billion edu-cated people organized around global IT networks that allow close collaboration,this vast intellectual force is being harnessed to discover the deeper laws of physicsthat will allow human life to expand throughout the universe.

WILLIAM E. HALAL



being less desirable, others more desirable. Which variations will occur is hard tosay, but they should all share these same general features of a mature world order.

Global unification may then induce a final step in the LCE—colonization of deepspace. The challenge of sending humans out of our solar system is so enormous thatit is inconceivable with present scientific capabilities. The nearest star system is fourlight years away, and since today’s space technology limits travel to less than 10percent of light speed, a one way journey would take 40 years. And that’s the neareststar. Deep space travel requires a fundamental breakthrough in physics, therefore,undertaken as a common goal by a unified world of 10 billion educated people work-ing together in earnest. Astronaut Edgar Mitchell believes the Space Age cannotbegin until the planet is unified: “The exploration of deep space, of other planets andother solar systems, is such a tremendously expensive high-technology undertakingthat a nation by itself cannot do it alone. . . . It’s got to be a global effort” (Fowler,1985).

Using our previous analogy of the Earth as an organism again, it could be said thatthis exodus will represent offspring of our planet sent out to perpetuate human civi-lization throughout space, much as parents send their children into the world. Andbecause space communities will possess Earth’s heritage of knowledge and culture,just as a child starts out life with the help of its family, space exploration may initiatea new cycle of evolution at an even higher level, as shown in Figure 2. This mayprove to be a major step that evolution has been building toward—launching human-kind throughout the universe.

THE POWER, PROGRESS, AND PURPOSE OF EVOLUTION

Now, what are we to make of this magnificent evolutionary unfolding, and howdoes it resolve the questions posed at the beginning of this paper? What power causesevolution to move so precisely through these seven stages? How can we define thenature of evolutionary progress to reveal what increases along the LCE? And whatfinal purpose does evolution serve, if any?

It is impossible to answer such daunting questions satisfactorily, of course, butthe observations outlined in the preceding sections permit tentative conclusions.

The Driving Power: Evolution is a Natural Process of Organic Development

The underlying power driving evolution appears to be the same life force thatcarries other organisms through their cycle of development. Just as microorganisms,animals, and humans develop through well-defined stages of growth and decay, similarforces appear to operate at the level of the planet. Our limited perspective todayobscures the fact that all life on Earth and their physical environment together con-stitute a single great organism that is interconnected by subtle feedback loops. Let’sreview a quick summary of the various points made earlier illustrating this organicnature of evolution.

As noted before, one of the most striking features is the way each stage of evolu-tion produces the resources needed to develop succeeding stages. This grand trend ofupward causation drives lower stages to push higher stages upward—the push im-


perative. We also saw that there is a corresponding tendency for the latent power ofhigher stages to draw, or attract, lower stages upward. This corollary trend of down-ward causation enables higher stages to pull preceding stages upward—the pull im-perative.

These twin imperatives to push resources from the bottom and pull power fromthe top illustrate that the planet acts as a single organic system, just as the perspectiveof Gaia would expect. This organic hypothesis is also supported by other features:the characteristic S-curve of the LCE, the significance of its three inflection points,the orderly way stages move from the primitive (survival and farming) to the sophis-ticated (knowledge and spirituality), the expansion of social systems to encompass aunified world, and the well-known fact that all life forms are intimately connected inecosystems. From this view, planetary evolution appears to exhibit the same featuresand rhythms of life that drive other organisms.

We have only one planet to examine as yet, but despite wide cultural diversityaround the globe, civilization elsewhere has traced roughly the same path marked bythese seven stages. Many scientists are pursuing the search for extraterrestrial lifebecause it is estimated that living planets must number in the billions. When and iflife is discovered elsewhere, it will be interesting to see if similar stages have beenfollowed there as well.

Animal species and humans are part of this organic process of planetary develop-ment, but they constitute the minutia of evolution, rather like the countless subsystemsthat constitute the body of any larger organism. Trying to understand evolution byfocusing on individual species is akin to studying human behavior by focusing onthe cells of the human body.

The Nature of Progress: Evolution Magnifies the Existential Challenges of Life

We also saw that the progress caused by these push-and-pull imperatives strugglesup a hierarchy of challenges. This is apparent by noting that both great costs as wellas great gains are incurred at each stage. Modern life is so vastly improved over theharsh conditions of ancient societies that average people in industrialized nationsenjoy comforts that would have been considered opulent in the past. But a great pricehas been paid in the form of pollution, bureaucracy, and other problems that did notexist before. And although the Information Age may alleviate these ills, it in turnproduces information overload, exploding complexity, and new disorders. Evolutionseems to bring mixed blessings, then, because each stage solves the central chal-lenges raised by the preceding era—but new challenges are always introduced.

This process of trading old problems for new problems illustrates that evolution isfar more complex than simply accumulating benefits. Change is forced on us whenthe limits of our social order present no choice but to move forward, yet the nextstage poses tougher challenges that require still more powerful forms of adaptation.In short, evolution continually confronts greater challenges of an ever more difficultworld. Thus, evolutionary progress is neither “good” nor “bad” in the ordinary meaningof these terms. It magnifies the existential dilemmas of life.

A good example is the power to control genetics now being conferred by biotech-nology. Modern medicine is making it possible to replace organs, cure all illnesses,

324 WILLIAM E. HALAL



eliminate birth defects, and extend life indefinitely—posing unavoidable decisionsthat determine who dies and who lives. As advanced technologies increase humancapabilities, therefore, they also produce greater dangers endemic to a more complexsociety. The result is that civilization must continually struggle forward to containthe turbulence produced by its own progress.

Even the possibility of a Spiritual Revolution hardly means that life will becomeUtopian. Religious causes have always usurped the power of faith for terrible pur-poses, and history demonstrates that people often succumb to self-indulgent vices,bizarre ideologies, gratuitous war and violence, and a great deal of other perversebehavior—which is all a manifestation of the same human spirit. It may even be thatthe future will pit more intense moral differences against one another, creating bibli-cal-like battles between good and evil. In short, spirit is not “goodness” but a higherstate of being that can take almost any form.

I conclude that life at advanced levels of evolution is more intense. Advancedstages require the careful use of more sophisticated capabilities, involving greatercomplexity, to choose among a wider range of options, entailing more dangerousrisks, to carry out grave new responsibilities, with more profound consequences.Evolution may improve our material well-being, and it may even allow people toenjoy greater happiness. But the most salient feature of evolutionary progress is thatthe continual development of ever greater powers intrinsically produces equally greaterthreats that continually make life more intensely challenging.

The Final Purpose: Evolution Purifies Humankind as it Approachesthe Transcendent

The model of evolution described here leads to our final conclusion: civilizationinexorably moves toward concerns that transcend the physical. Life has steadily pro-gressed from working the soil, to manufacturing goods, to organizing complex so-cial systems, and is now mastering the use of knowledge. George Gilder’s (1989)incisive analysis of the Information Revolution concluded: “The central event of the20th century is the overthrow of matter.”

As we’ve also shown, the Information Age will itself fade into the past about2020 or so, while an even more abstract stage of mental/spiritual technology is steadilybut firmly rising to address all of those profound matters that lie beyond knowledge.One of the most striking patterns in the various trends observed in this analysis isthat recent changes are increasing the range of choices, understanding, emotion,awareness, purpose, wisdom, meaning, belief, and other facets of the human spirit,as scholars have long recognized (Harman, 1988).

On the basis of evidence and logic, then, evolution seems to cause a continualgrowth of spirit—at least the human spirit focused on here—and this can probablybe demonstrated empirically. Who could deny that there is far more human spirit inthe world today than during the primitive stone age, and certainly before life existedat all? Moreover, this growth of spirit seems to arise naturally out of the process oflife itself—push—as well as from some higher source—pull. To offer an analogy,just as a tree bears fruit, so life produces spirit. The only serious question remainingis, where does the metaphysical power that energizes this human spirit come from?


We may be doing the pushing, in short, but who is doing the pulling? Let’s movebeyond the evidence at this point to explore the possible answer to this tantalizingquestion.

If we examine these patterns broadly, it seems that the LCE itself indicates theexistence of some higher power. Wherever there is growth in some precise direction,there must be some form of intelligence drawing it on. For instance, the very exist-ence of human consciousness represents nothing less than a great miracle. A fewbillion years ago the planet was little more than a mass of hot rock. Then, after anendlessly long process of biological creation, humans appeared almost out of no-where, through some process that nobody really understands, and now billions ofintelligent beings are here pondering the meaning of this mystery.

Speaking strictly as a scholar, I find it very hard to attribute this appearance ofconsciousness to strictly physical causes. It strikes me as far more reasonable thatthis process of creation is inspired by some higher level of intelligence, just as ordi-nary human creations are inspired by our higher levels of intelligence. Whatever thishigher form of energy happens to be, it seems to draw us toward it, in almost exactlythe same way that a flower grows toward light.

If this is true, scientific views of evolution can then be seen as perfectly compat-ible with religious beliefs. Science may describe the what: the mechanisms by whichlife evolves. But spirituality helps us see the why: the likely possibility that all life ispowered ultimately by some form of spiritual energy. Even now, the evidence ofspiritual phenomena cited earlier is causing many scientists to propose more generaltheories that could revolutionize our view of reality to include spiritual matters(Sheldrake, 1981; Sperry, 1986). A poll of 1,500 Americans found that 70 percentsee no conflict between evolution and divine creation. Some physicists, such as Free-man Dyson, think that matter itself is alive in the sense that it exhibits choice:

When we examine matter in detail . . . we see it behaving as an active agent ratherthan an inert substance. It makes what appear to be arbitrary choices. Between mat-ter and our own consciousness, there seems to be only a difference of degree but notin kind. (Dyson, 1988)

This inexorable rise of spirit along the evolutionary path may signal the ultimatemeaning of the LCE. Life evolves toward the transcendent because the source of thisspiritual power appears to be at once both the cause and the purpose of evolution.The existential dilemmas that must be surmounted along the way may be heroicallypainful, but they appear to be an intrinsic part of this process because they graduallytransform us into more fitting vessels of that energy. The German philosopherNietzsche put it well: “The universe is a machine for making Gods.” Evolution canbe incisively defined, therefore, as a difficult but necessary path for the purificationof humankind as it approaches the transcendent.

NOTES

1. The horizontal dimension is a 10-cycle logarithmic scale in order to display the time differencesbetween various stages of evolution. Because log scales cannot have a zero point, all times must be



expressed along a single direction; the scale was therefore defined as “Years Before 2,500 Years A.D.”and because this reference point spreads the present stages of evolution out conveniently. The verticaldimension is an ordinal scale corresponding with the rank order of the stages shown in Table 1. Itshould be noted that, although the LCE appears to form a smooth, gradually changing cycle, it actuallyrepresents the “envelope” composed of seven smaller S-curves corresponding with these 7 stages. Asthe punctuated theory of evolution points out, the LCE is punctuated by the abrupt growth spurts ofeach stage of evolution, and these epochs are linked together in a series of growth cycles that form theLCE.

2. In technical terms, the first derivative of evolution—speed—reaches its maximum precisely when thesecond derivative—acceleration—reverses from an increasing to a decreasing rate of change.

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