LIFE AND HOW WE’LL LIVE IT Predicting cloud comPuting’s role in a changing society.

A FuTurIzON rEpOrT by IAN pEArsON bsc Dsc(hc) CITp FbCs FWAAs FrsA FIN FWIF

WHAT’s ON THE HOrIzON For your it?

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When we think of the benefits that cloud computing could bring to us, we tend to focus on two areas of opportunity.

Firstly, we think of the chance that it gives us to make IT more agile and more responsive. Secondly, we think about the changes that the cloud could bring to our lives, both as consumers of media and as professionals that work with business applications.

buT WHAT WILL THOsE CHANgEs rEALLy LOOk LIkE?

Perhaps the biggest recent announcement that showed us how things could pan out came from Government CIO John Suffolk, who said that the cloud will be at the heart of his public sector IT strategy for the next 10 years. This is something that will have a big impact on how efficiently our country is run, and could completely change the way that we consume public services on a day-to-day basis. It’s that significant.

The next 10 years are certainly going to be a big period of change in IT, both for the public and private sectors. But when we commissioned this report we wanted to look even further. We wanted to envision the future beyond. And not just from the perspective of business, or government, but society as a whole.

At Fujitsu, we are passionate about the cloud as an enabler of the future of IT. After reading this report we hope that you will be as excited and intrigued about that prospect as we are.

Yours

DAVID sMITHCHIEF INFOrMATION OFFICErAND CHIEF TECHNOLOgy OFFICErFuJITsu

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A WOrD From the author

i was asked one fundamental question when invited to research this report: as people get used to using apps and the web to run their lives and store their files so they can access them from anywhere, will cloud computing become the norm for both consumers and businesses? i believe that it will.

Life today is dominated by technology change. In the last 15 years, half a ton of electronics has been condensed into a mobile phone. It’s likely that the trend will continue until a piece of jewellery will do the same.

In the not so distant future, wireless memory sticks will also eliminate the need for forms of storage such as CDs, DVDs, or even Blu-ray discs. They will communicate directly with each other as people pass on the high street, creating yet another network for information distribution. People will get more and more used to basing their lives around the net at home as well as at work, they will increasingly expect the same facilities at both, and they will have little tolerance for employers who demand that they restrict themselves to networks under direct control of IT security teams.

HOW WILL THIs kIND OF CHANgE bEAr ON Our THINkINg As INDIVIDuALs?

Many key people will leave big companies to become freelancers – simply because they can earn more and have more control of their lives that way. They will sell their time to the best bidders, and will expect to use their own tools and techniques wherever they work. The result? Even big companies will have to accept cloud working to some degree, because the talent they need to draw on won’t give them a choice. The cloud will become the norm. But this won’t come about just because of changes in technology. As I have outlined over the following pages, it will come about because of drivers that are economic, social and cultural too.

ian Pearson graduated in 1981 in applied mathematics and theoretical Physics from Queens university, Belfast. after four years in shorts missile systems, he joined Bt laboratories as a performance analyst, and later worked in network design, computer evolution, cybernetics, and mobile systems. From 1991 until 2007, he was Bt’s Futurologist, tracking and predicting new developments throughout information technology, considering both technological and social implications. he now does the same for Futurizon, a small futures institute.

he is a chartered Fellow of the British computer society, the World academy of art and science, the royal society of arts, the institute of nanotechnology and the World innovation Foundation. he also holds an honorary doctor of science degree from the university of Westminster.

IAN PEARSON

Economists can’t agree whether the uk recession is a single or double dip. It is actually more likely to be the case that economic growth, stimulated by improving technology and the markets it brings, will actually result in a series of dips superimposed on a slow underlying recovery. What we could be looking at is a Loch Ness Monster recession.

■ The recession will generate lasting social benefits. People pull together in adversity, with more social contact replacing retail consumption. While this will be difficult for retailers we will get a stronger, better networked society that forces changes in attitudes towards IT. As a result, we will see increasing acceptance of IT-based tools such as videoconferencing. This will increase the mobile use of services, increasing familiarity with smartphones and apps, and create more demand for cloud services.

■ Economic stress will stimulate reduction of waste and eradication of inefficient practices. An IT renaissance will occur, as companies tackle and replace bloated micromanagement systems. We will discover better ways of doing things. Leaner companies will be better placed to survive, and will provide better services at better prices.

■ In the background will be demographic changes such as ageing, immigration, single person households and children staying longer with their parents. A new trend is remigration, where people return to their ancestral homelands as conditions there improve. Indians leaving the UK are leaving large holes in the IT skill base that are hard to fill with home grown staff. Meanwhile, intergenerational conflict will worsen as young people blame their parents’ generation for the problems. Many of the most talented may emigrate too.

■ Globalisation will still increase in the next decade, but most of its impacts have already been felt, and it will be less important than the recomposition of industry. As biotech, nanotech and IT converge and their effects ripple through every industry, a great deal of fragmentation and reassembly of corporate functions and systems will result. Many people will work frequently with others in distant locations, causing great growth in network traffic and high demand for the most effective collaboration tools.

The upshot of all these factors converging is that our IT requirements will change frequently, and sometimes dramatically.

WHAT WILL bE THE IMpLICATIONs FOr COMpANIEs AND INDIVIDuALs?

Companies that have survived the recent recession will be well placed to survive future dips, battle hardened, with lean, efficient businesses. Companies emerging over the period will also make use of latest technologies and tools so will also be well placed. But they will be cautious about spending as well, and will be strongly attracted to the advantages of IT outsourcing.

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HOW DO yOu TACkLE a loch ness monster recession?

to adaPt, We Will need highly FlexiBle inFrastructure – it that is FlexiBle, agile and can Be tailored to sPeciFic needs.

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The last two decades brought the convergence of computing and telecommunications. The next two will converge the real and virtual worlds. Augmented reality is already here, providing overlays of information on mobile phone images when they are held up to a real-world background. This will develop quickly into a mixture of everything from the web, TV and computer games with everything we do in the physical world. Today’s small mobile phone displays will become wraparound and immersive, and we will eventually live our lives in a 24/7 dual environment.

The technology needed is mostly here already. But how will it be used, and where is it heading in the future?

■ Miniaturisation took a decade to condense half a ton of electronics into a mobile phone, which is now a general purpose device. It also presents a superb platform for marketing, since it is full of context information. It knows all your regular contacts, where you are, where you’ve been, who you’re with, the time and your diary. This marketing potential will be exploited, particularly as the scope for advertising on other platforms decreases. As it is, it will create a whole range of new support businesses. These will need IT infrastructure that maps well to mobile living, which are already heading rapidly towards cloud architecture.

■ Electronic book readers and iPads are just the earliest of a whole series of new display types, but they also bring fierce new competition over operating systems and control of content and application format and delivery. The battle between Google, Microsoft and Apple has already left many mobile phone companies fighting for the scraps left over. Walled gardens will appear and then walls will be knocked down, and this will happen several times over the coming years. IT managers should be wary of becoming loyal to any one approach and instead use a diversity of systems, outsourcing wherever possible to companies that are themselves technology agnostic.

■ We will also see a wider range of displays in use around the home and office. Large wall-hanging displays, electronic posters, TV style monitors, desktop and laptop computer displays, magazine tablets, electronic paper, electronic photo-frames and various other specialist displays will accompany the pocket-sized ones on our phones and PDAs. Some of these will be connected to a range of external networks, again adding complexity for IT security managers.

■ The far future will yield active contact lenses, condensing all the required electronics to contact lens size and using direct retinal projection, enabling high resolution wraparound virtual environments. Marketers will have many more ways to reach customers. The power of such platforms to reach customers is vast, and customers actually want a lot of the personalised context-sensitive information, making this approach all the more valuable and effective.

CAN IT INFrAsTruCTurE COpE With the sPeed oF it eVolution?

regardless of the recession, and how many further dips we are likely to experience over the coming years, the rate of technological progress will continue accelerating.

augmented reality is already here, ProViding oVerlays oF inFormation on moBile Phone images When they are held uP to a real-World Background.

All this capability needs a platform to distribute it. There will be a strong market for platform provision and service management that will emerge from fierce competition that already exists. And with customers and suppliers spread unevenly, and sectors changing rapidly, cloud solutions will prove to be a highly attractive option. IT managers will be able to provide resources exactly when they need them, where they need them, and with low risk.

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as ProductiVity increases, We Will need FeWer PeoPle to do the same Work, But PeoPle Will not Be idle. Freeing them From Being cogs in a machine Will let them concentrate on adding human-Based Value.

buT TO HELp brINg THIs AbOuT, ArE WE AbOuT TO CONCEDE MOrE pOWEr TO THE ‘MACHINEs’?

■ In the future, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will certainly replace people in many administration or information tasks, freeing them to spend more time meeting people. But far from inhibiting people, this will mean that workers are more able to redirect their focus to human and emotional skills.

■ Offices will also adapt, becoming more meeting oriented and less desk-based. As a result, office IT infrastructure and security policies will become much less important, while access to data and corporate systems out of the office will dominate policy.

■ As productivity increases, we will need fewer people to do the same work, but people will not be idle. Freeing them from being cogs in a machine will let them concentrate on adding human-based value. One term for this is the care economy. The most vital skills and capabilities in this new era will be in leadership, motivation and empathy. Entertainment and sports will be big – while care work, teaching, policing, security and military will all continue to be vital. There will also be a substantially increased personal services sector. Work in the manufacturing sector, on the other hand, will continue to be substituted by robotics and outsourcing.

■ However, there will still be a role for people at the specialist level. Even when most tasks can be done by machine, there will remain some that are best done by people. Only a few people will have such skills, and they will attract high rewards.

most expect this trend to continue, providing a real boost to those that need to work around family commitments, or simply find that working flexibly is better for their work/life balance.

CHANgINg NATurE OF WOrk, changing role For it

many people already work from home or on the move − visiting clients, suppliers or collaborators. they only go to the office when they need to meet people.

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The consequences for IT provision are clear. Desktop Managed services are already important in coping with varied security and network accessibility, while the virtualised Desktop will increasingly offer users the flexibility of using their own virtual computers, wherever they have access to an internet connection.

We will also see some tasks taken out of the office and done by AI in secure server farms. Others that are human focused will need to be delivered to staff on the move, which means cloud-based working will become even more attractive. People will also want lightweight, ergonomic devices that tap into ubiquitous mobile broadband, and security will dictate that their files and corporate systems are located off-device.

However, the increasing role of AI means that there will be much less advantage in overseas outsourcing, especially since human contact is always best when done face-to-face. This will eventually cause a reversal of globalisation in terms of staff location, except for some niche industries that require skills that are spread globally.

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CAN WE pLAN For change?

JusT WHEN WE THOugHT WE uNDErsTOOD Our ENVIrONMENTAL LIAbILITIEs...

Climate science is currently under investigation. CO2 remains an important issue, but CFCs, high altitude water vapour, black carbon and other aerosols, dust caused by desertification, oceanic cycles and of course solar activity are all receiving attention as other major culprits.

Science will take time to settle. Meanwhile, carbon trading markets are suffering, some green businesses dying and some green jobs being shed. Nevertheless, some regulations and taxes will remain, though they will vary among countries, sometimes incentivising relocation. New targets will emerge, probably for black carbon, diesel fuel and aviation. Landfill is still a big problem and increasing regulation of packaging, recycling and waste are likely. Businesses should get used to turbulence in environmental issues, but the new targets and regulations will also create new markets, and new ideas.

Ultimately, environmental sustainability will, more than ever, be a concern for the entire product lifecycle. Businesses will seek suppliers who can share the burden, and outsourcing will be key as a route to meeting targets and objectives.

In the coming years, companies are going to have to continue keeping up with rapid change. If times continue to be turbulent, there will be little point optimising for what could soon be historic opportunities. Agility and adaptability are going to be the keys to survival.

HOW DOEs THIs IMpACT ON THE IT pLANNINg CyCLE?

■ Five year plans may be appropriate in capital intensive centralised companies such as chip fabrication or car manufacture, but the pace of change dictates that most companies will need to avoid being held back by IT investment commitments.

■ As new market sectors appear, these companies will need to be ready to pounce from a highly flexible IT base.

■ With increasing use of virtual companies and freelancers to address new markets, cloud-based operations will become increasingly the norm, allowing people to work wherever they need to be and making companies less dependent on particular IT architectures.

■ However, there is a warning. In cloud provision competition is increasing, especially at application and operating system level. Companies should avoid being tied down unnecessarily. But flexibility can still be achieved as long as the IT managers dictate essential compatibility requirements.

■ IT directors will ultimately seek a third way between the public cloud model and managing their IT in-house. That is, they will seek the flexibility of the cloud from their service providers, while demanding that they retain sight of both where their data is held, and how their applications are performing. Only this way will they truly be able to keep a grip on their own future requirements.

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WHAT NEW THrEATs CAN WE ExpECT TO sEE EVOLVINg OVEr THE COMINg DECADEs?

■ Memory sticks allow concealment of large volumes of stolen data. Soon, tiny specks of smart dust dropped through ventilation grills on office equipment will allow interception of data before it even gets to an encryption device, picked up later by a wireless memory stick in someone’s pocket. Slightly cleverer smart dust could even allow documents to be subtly altered while they are being printed. Detection of such devices might prove difficult.

■ Some viruses, worms and trojans are already adaptive, but can still be detected by their general form and defeated. It is very much an arms race. New techniques will arise, such as using combinations of code and data, spread across different systems. With tiny fragments only becoming a whole at the point of execution, detection will become harder.

■ Other means of attack, such as network resonance, might rely on the physical properties of a system such as the time taken for signals to get from one point to another. These haven’t been seen yet because they only become feasible at high line rates. Attacks based on correlated traffic and information waves will also become possible. These rely on capture and use of networks of high speed machines (zombies), but may be also enabled by games machine networks or even mobile phones as they become more powerful.

■ The web will soon become the default choice for organising political campaigns, or even electronic boycotts of particular companies too, making the security challenge even tougher.

Security, in other words, is going to become one of the key motivations for outsourcing IT – because it is unlikely that any one company will be able to handle all these emerging threats if it stands alone.

security problems increase daily as more people worldwide learn how to use it for fraud, espionage, destruction and disruption. the war shows no signs of coming to an end, and in fact will only get worse.

THE bATTLE TO prOTECT DATA is only going to intensiFy

soon, tiny sPecks oF smart dust droPPed through Ventilation grills on oFFice eQuiPment Will alloW intercePtion oF data BeFore it eVen gets to an encryPtion deVice.

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WILL VIrTuAL Become a reality?

Overlaying virtual images onto real-world views offers the prospect of dual appearance for people, objects and buildings. It enables convergence of real and virtual worlds that goes far beyond internet access on the move.

WHAT ArE THE IMpLICATIONs FOr Our pErsONAL AND busINEss LIVEs?

Every metre of high street could soon be extra display space for art galleries, and a huge playing field for computer games. Online shops could overlay on real shops, letting high street shoppers buy items from allied online suppliers. It also lets shoppers inspect competitors’ products alongside those in front of them physically – which effectively is a form of digital trespassing. Shops will soon have to get used to a world where the market is far more transparent − again this is an IT-related problem that is well outside the scope of the current IT security department.

There is great opportunity here for support services. Duality has many layers, with players at each level. Someone has to design the best interfaces, the virtual worlds − then personalise them and create auxiliary content such as avatars, dual architecture and so on. There is another market for filters, bubbles, outreach technologies, context, profiling and position-based services. On top of all these, aggregation and comparison sites can build applications.

All of these markets have one significant thing in common. They are ideally suited to cloud based working.

online shoPs could oVerlay on real shoPs, letting high street shoPPers Buy items From allied online suPPliers.

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WILL WE ALL Be entrePreneurs?

the technology industry has been driven forward by entrepreneurialism from those who create its products and services. it is also driving a new spirit of enterprise among those who use its products and services.

part of this has been due to the web, forcing the standardisation of business tools. E-commerce needed better connectivity and compatibility among business systems, and that enabled outsourcing of facilities such as travel management, personnel management, logistics and financial services.

Ironically, the same tools that allow companies to do this also allow key staff from those companies to leave and set up such enterprises themselves. This is why there has been some evaporation of high quality staff from many large companies, many of whom now compete with them in the same markets.

There is no doubt that it is now easier and quicker to set up new businesses, and to grow them faster. Groups of freelancers often set up collective companies with shared risk and reward, and are essentially small virtual companies. Others are truly freelance and sell their expertise to any enterprise that wants to buy them, on a project by project basis. Virtual companies also offer a low risk strategy for traditional companies to explore new markets, which often require a diverse range of new skills that no single company has access to, forcing collaboration. Teams can be spread across the world as necessary, even if time zone differences can present real problems.

Virtual companies are by nature diverse in both sector and geography. Most will use a number of freelancers as well as staff from each of the collaborators. This, of course, means a diversity of IT among the various participants, and IT managers will have to cope with this. Freelancers are unlikely to want to change their IT for small project involvements, and will expect to use their own tools and techniques. Companies will have little choice but to allow them to do so.

This new breed of worker and company will present a strong market for provision of highly flexible IT services and infrastructure. Virtual desktops and managed services offer significant potential here. When security and networking requirements are also managed by a third party, companies are, quite simply, allowed to get on with what they do best.

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ExECuTIVE suMMAry

the World oF tomorroW Will Be Very diFFerent From that oF yesterday. PeoPle Will Work and liVe Quite diFFerently, and Be suPPorted By a rich diVersity oF gadgets and serVices.

They will expect it all to be highly portable, use low power and for their data to be secure, even if they lose a device. Their personal habits and technology preferences will change frequently as compelling new gadgets arrive and new apps are invented every day. They will expect to be in touch all the time, wherever they go.

someone has to provide all the security and infrastructure of course. But it is much easier for one big company to deal with issues once, than for many smaller ones to try and manage on their own. centralisation makes sense for companies that have the specialist skills to in-source the problems into guarded and managed infrastructure that is immune to individual market fluctuations by virtue of simple statistics.

The best approach to future IT is to let someone do it for you, and instead, get on with what you do best.

The current trend towards cloud-based provision is ideally suited to meet these needs. It is easy to imagine a future where simple apps on ergonomic mobile devices are used to achieve most tasks, tapping in to cloud-based functionality and data storage. For government services such as transport, information and health care, this kind of model will allow much lower costs while providing much better service. Old IT approaches such as massive centralised health record databases will soon look very antiquated indeed.

From a corporate point of view, it makes a lot of sense to use the same approach. Product life cycles will be very short. Many projects will require virtual companies made of teams of staff from different companies, in different geographic areas, and lots of freelance workers. In some industries expertise is spread globally, in others it is concentrated in science parks. But in all cases, technology is changing so fast that no particular structure will survive for very long. Virtual companies will be more and more appropriate, and they will often need to restructure dynamically and rapidly.

There will be fierce battles between the major IT providers to control the gadgets, platforms, networks, operating systems, apps and content that every company and individual will use. Rewards will be high but so will the costs and risks at those levels. The industry giants can afford to fight each other, but smaller companies will be best advised to stay out of it and avoid over committing to any one solution.

Multi-location, multi-technology working is very difficult to manage given the frequent upgrading, the reliance on under-tested equipment, and all the many security risks. This is especially true in a world where terrorism is starting to realise the full potential of cyber warfare. Encouraging staff to use equipment that links to cloud-based apps will solve a lot of the problems.

Buying in flexible provision will prove a lot less risky than providing owned infrastructure that may prove worthless if a market doesn’t appear. Managed risk-taking will favour IT outsourcing, making companies lean and agile enough to compete in a fierce marketplace.

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