LIC Housing Finance -...
Transcript of LIC Housing Finance -...
Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
LIC Housing Finance Growth levers in place, uncertainty over
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.FINANCIALS: Initiating Coverage 2 April 2014
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) is a strong incumbent in the low‐risk, stable‐return housing finance industry with a market share of more than 10%. While it has been growing faster than the industry by drawing on the strong franchise of its parent, we see its growth tapering off a bit, but still above‐industry, enabling further market share. Lower bank borrowings will lead NIM improvement in FY15 while asset repricing and growing share of high‐yield segment will drive NIMs in FY16. Better spreads, stable asset quality, lower credit costs, and comfortable capital position over FY15‐16 makes a promising case for investment with a fair value of Rs295 per share for LICHF, translating into a valuation of 1.5x FY16e ABVPS of Rs196.
Business will continue to outpace industry growth rates: Despite competitive pressures in retail home loans, we believe LICHF’s disbursements will be higher than peers, given its access to its parent’s strong franchise. We have built in a disbursements growth of 16%/18% for FY15/16. This will result in a loan book growth of 17% over FY15‐16. It will be able to scale up its developer book only by FY16.
NIMs will improve a bit in FY15, a lot in FY16: Better borrowing flexibility, asset repricing, and increasing proportion of high‐yield book will augment NIMs in FY15‐16. LICHF’s spreads and NIM are near lows driven by rising funding costs and its inability to pass these on (because of higher competition). NIMs and spreads can improve driven by: a) flexibility to shift to bond markets for borrowings ( = lower bank borrowings), b) Rs 310bn asset repricing in FY16, and c) gradual change in portfolio mix towards high‐yielding products. We see NIMs rising by only ~5 bps in FY15 (largely driven by a change in borrowing mix), but in FY16 they will rise by a substantial ~20bps driven by asset repricing and scaling up of the developer book.
Asset quality to remain benign; credit costs to remain stable: With 88% of its customers in the salaried class, LICHF’s individual loan segment has seen resilience — with GNPAs at 0.4% as on 9MFY14. However, the GNPA in its developer book is high at 14.9% due to delinquencies in 4 major accounts. In all these accounts, it has initiated SARFAESI and seized one residential property. As the resolution of these accounts progresses, we expect GNPAs to decline. Against total GNPAs of Rs 7.04bn, LICHF has an outstanding provision of Rs 7.3bn, including Rs 1.4bn for teaser‐rate provision (which it will probably reverse in the next 2‐3 quarters), resulting in stable credit cost in FY15‐16.
Bank foray challenges over: We believe that while LICHF would have benefited from LIC’s brand and customer base, however, mobilization of low‐cost deposits would have been a major challenge. Thus transformation from HFC to a bank would have pulled down RoAs from 1.4% currently to ~0.7% over the medium term (3‐4 Years) mainly because of regulatory requirement and high operating cost.
Valuation: We see earnings growing at a CAGR of 19.5% over FY14E‐16, resulting in an ROA of 1.5%/1.6% for FY15/FY16. Based on a two‐stage Gordon growth model, we arrive at a fair value of Rs 295 (implied FY16 P/ABVPS of 1.5x) for LICHF. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating.
Buy LICHF IN | CMP RS 245 TARGET RS 295 (+20%) Company Data O/S SHARES (MN) : 505MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 112.6MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 1.852 ‐ WK HI/LO (RS) : 281 / 152LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 9.9FACE VALUE (RS) : 2
Share Holding Pattern, % PROMOTERS : 40.3FII / NRI : 34.5FI / MF : 10.1NON PROMOTER CORP. HOLDINGS : 4.4PUBLIC & OTHERS : 10.5
Price Performance, % 1mth 3mth 1yr
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Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Capital Research
Other Key Ratios FY14E FY15E FY16EPre‐prov ROE (%) 26.0 26.3 27.3Pre‐prov ROA (%) 2.1 2.2 2.3Net Profit (Rs mn) 12,927 15,406 18,941% growth 26.3 19.2 22.9EPS (Rs) 25.6 30.5 37.5Adj BVPS (Rs) 140.0 164.9 196.4ROE (%) 18.4 18.8 19.6 P/E (x) 9.6 8.0 6.5Adj P/BV (x) 1.8 1.5 1.2Source: Phillip Capital India Research Sachit Motwani, CFA, FRM (+9122 6667 9953) [email protected] Manish Agarwalla (+9122 6667 9962) [email protected]
2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Business will continue to outpace industry growth rates LICHF’s loan book has grown at a CAGR of 22% over FY08‐13 (vs. 15% industry growth). Consequently, its market share increased from 6% in FY08 to 10.3% in FY13. Housing finance growth rate – Industry and top players
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Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research Market share trends
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Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research Two factors drove its strong loan‐book growth — 1), a healthy retail disbursements CAGR of 31.5% over FY08‐13 due to volume expansion (especially from dual‐rate products), and 2), a 10% CAGR increase in incremental average ticket size over the same period. The company also benefited from strong brand recall and the agency network of its parent, LIC — LIC agents currently source 60% LICHF’s business. However, disbursements in the developer segment was muted (‐0.7% CAGR in FY08‐13) after corruption charges on top management in November 2010 and a deliberate slowing down of the book due to economic slowdown. Despite competitive pressures in retail home loans, we believe that LICHF’s disbursements growth will continue to outpace systemic growth, given its access to the strong franchise of its parent. It will be able to scale up its developer book only by FY16. We have built in a disbursements growth of 16%/18% for FY15/16, which is above CRISIL’s estimate of systemic disbursements growth. This will result in a loan book growth of 17% over FY15‐16.
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HFCs have been gaining market share Housing loans have generally given stable returns and have had lower delinquencies — therefore, this segment has always been highly competitive. Banks have been able to compete well in the home‐loan segment because of their lower borrowing costs and extensive branch network. Even so, HFCs (housing finance companies) have gained market share in the last few years. According to NHB’s report on trends and progress of housing in India, HFCs’ market share increased from 30% in FY08 to almost 39% in FY13. We believe that this gain was due to their focused approach, better underwriting standards, better customer service, and relatively lower delinquencies. Banks’ housing loan portfolio grew at a CAGR of 12.4% over FY08‐13 while HFCs’ grew at 21.6%. Growth in housing loan outstanding and HFCs market share
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Source: NHB Report on trends and progress of housing in India HFCs’ underwriting standards are clearly better than banks’ — visible from the difference in NPAs between them — banks’ housing loan NPAs in FY13 were 2.35% vs. HFCs’ 1.11%. According to CRISIL estimates, housing loan disbursements will decelerate to 12‐14% over the next two years owing to slower economic growth, high property prices, and reducing affordability levels because of uncertain income growth. However, over a 5‐year period, CRISIL estimates housing finance disbursements to see a CAGR of 16‐17% — this, coupled with lower prepayments (with rising uncertainty in income levels) will result in a ~16% loan growth for the industry over the 5 year period.
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NIMs will improve a bit in FY15, a lot in FY16 Over FY08‐12, LICHF’s NIM declined from a range of 2.8‐3.0% to 2.2% in FY13 and 9MFY14. Over the same period, spreads declined to ~1% from over 2%. Rising cost of funds and LICHF’s inability to pass it on (intensified competition in the home‐loan market because it has relatively lower delinquencies) led the decline in NIM and spreads. Trends in yield on advances, cost of funds and NIM
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Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research With incremental disbursements taking place mainly in the dual‐rate segment (fixed rate of ~10.25% for a limited period) and with the elongated slowdown in the developer segment, we do not see a significant shift in the loan‐book mix in FY15. LICHF’s LAP (loans against property) segment (which is at ~3.25% of the book and where it currently sells to its own customers) may witness traction but in the overall scheme of things, LAP’s share will increase only gradually. Based on this and Rs 70bn of asset repricing in FY15, we see LICHF’s yields improving only marginally by ~5 bps. However, we see a sharp improvement in yields in FY16 (as assets worth Rs 310bn will be repriced) largely driven by the repricing of Advantage‐5 and a pickup in the developer loan segment. As per our calculation, repricing in FY16 will result in yield improvement of ~20 bps. Change in loan book mix over FY14‐16
Loan book mix 9MFY14Proportion
(%) FY15E Proportion
(%) FY16EProportion
(%)Outstanding loan book (Rs bn) 864 1054 1238 Incremental loans (Rs bn) 190 184 Individual 810 93.8% 972 92.2% 1128 91.1% ‐ Fixed 432 50.0% 499 47.4% 322 26.0% ‐ Floating 378 43.8% 472 44.8% 806 65.1%LAP 28 3.3% 38 3.6% 47 3.8%Developer 26 3.0% 45 4.2% 63 5.1%
Source: PhillipCapital Research Given its higher dependence on the wholesale market, LICHF’s funding costs are highly sensitive to wholesale market rates. NCDs constitute ~63% of its total borrowings — 22% of LICHF’s borrowings have a maturity of 3‐5 years while 32% have a maturity of 5 years+. Therefore, we have taken the 5‐year AAA corporate bond yield as a benchmark (LICHF’s current rating is AAA).
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Movement in bond yields vs. LICHF’s cost of funds
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Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital Research
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Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital Research
Borrowings maturity profile Maturity Profile of borrowings ______FY11______ ______FY12______ ______FY13______% of borrowings Bank Market Bank Market Bank Market Up to 1 year 8% 22% 33% 19% 16% 18%1 to 3 years 25% 36% 21% 31% 21% 32%3 to 5 years 22% 9% 28% 19% 24% 21%Above 5 years 45% 34% 18% 30% 39% 29%
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research We believe that LICHF’s dependence on NCDs will rise because wholesale rates will continue to be lower than banks’ base rate — wholesale rates were at 9.0‐9.5% (excluding one‐off shocks of 15th July) vs. banks’ base rate of 10%+. Consequently, LICHF’s bank borrowing is likely to decline from 27% as on 9MFY14 to ~20% by FY15. As per our calculation, this will result in ~7 bps reduction in cost of funds. Trends in borrowing mix
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Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research To conclude, we believe LICHF’s NIM will increase only marginally in FY15 by ~5 bps (driven by change in borrowing mix) to 2.25% while in FY16, we expect to see a NIM improvement of 10bps to 2.35% (driven by asset repricing and scaling up of its developer book).
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Asset quality benign; credit costs to remain stable Asset quality in the housing loan segment has historically shown resilience due to increasing property prices, controlled LTVs (loan‐to‐value ratios), and emotional attachment to the home. Default rates are minimal compared to other loan products. LICHF, with an 88% salaried class of customer base, has also witnessed resilience in its individual loan portfolio with GNPAs at 0.4% as on 9MFY14. Delinquencies in four large chunky developer accounts resulted in developer book GNPA (%) at 14.9% as on 9MFY14. In all four cases, it initiated SARFAESI (Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act) and is hopeful of a resolution in the next 2‐3 quarters. LICHF also has a strong asset cover for those NPAs at 2.0‐2.5x. Its total outstanding provisions are Rs 7.3bn, of which ~Rs 1bn pertains to the developer segment. The company also carries an excess provision on teaser‐rate loans (Rs 1.4bn), which will probably be reversed in the next 2‐3 quarters, bringing down credit costs. While this will boost earnings in FY15, the coverage ratio may decline to ~85% from over 100% currently. As resolution of developer NPLs progresses and with a reversal of provision on teaser loans, we expect LICHF’s GNPAs and credit costs to stabilize in FY15‐16. Asset quality trends
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Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research Trends in outstanding provisioning and coverage
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Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
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Key risks Interest rate risks on the back of ALM mismatch We believe that LICHF is vulnerable to significant interest rate risk due to a mismatch in its floating vs. fixed book. Currently 56% of its loan book is fixed while ~70% of its borrowings are fixed. The proportion of fixed‐rate book will decline substantially in FY16 driven by conversion of Advantage 5 loans to floating rates. Even though a substantial proportion of incremental loans are fixed in nature, it will not sufficiently offset the decline in fixed‐rate book (%). Carrying higher proportion of fixed‐rate liabilities relative to fixed‐rate book puts LICHF at a disadvantage in a declining interest rate environment. Proportion of fixed rate assets and liabilities
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Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research Given that LICHF is a wholesale borrower, if interest rates continue to remain elevated, LICHF’s NIMs will not improve from current levels. Competitive pressures do not give LICHF enough room to pass on the rising cost of funds. We therefore believe that if interest rates were to remain high, NIM improvement will be elongated. Buildup of inventory can put mortgage price at risk The rising inventory levels across cities clearly indicate the ongoing slowdown in the physical real estate market. While real estate prices have held up until now, we cannot rule out the possibility of a price correction. A decline in real estate prices can be a cause of concern, as it will affect LICFH’s growth and asset quality. Mortgage property price Index across cities
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Residential inventory Inventory (000, units) Dec‐12 Dec‐13 growth (YoY)Mumbai 119.1 134.7 13.1Pune 41.5 53.7 29.2Bangalore 34.2 62.0 81.4Chennai 47.6 47.9 0.5NCR 179.8 195.8 8.9
Source: PhillipCapital Research
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Valuation We value LICHF based on a 2‐stage Gordon‐growth model which gives us a target P/Adj BV multiple of 1.5x — this multiple factors a growth of 20% for 5 years, terminal growth of 5%, and sustainable RoEs of 16%. Valuation assumptions Risk free rate 8.75%Beta 1.2Market risk premium 5%cost o equity 14.75%High growth period 5 yearsSustainable RoE 16% High growth Terminal growth Growth Rate 20% 5%Payout Ratio 20% 60%
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research About the company Promoted by LIC, LICHF is the third‐largest mortgage financier in India (after SBI and HDFC. As of December 2013, it had an outstanding loan book of Rs 864bn and a customer base of over 1.5mn. Retail mortgages constitute 97% of its loan book with the balance coming from the developer segment. LICHF provides housing finance through 201 marketing outlets and 40 branches of its LICHFL Financial Services (100% subsidiary). It has agency strength of 10912 agents, of which ~80% are LIC agents. It sources 60% of its business through LIC agents.
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Rolling and discount chart 1‐year forward P/BV band
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Financials
Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16EInterest on individual housing loans 70,414 87,313 99,537 113,473Interest on project loans 4,177 3,550 6,035 9,959Other interest income 118 100 150 200Total Interest earned 74,709 90,964 105,723 123,631Interest expended 59,246 72,319 83,565 96,164Net Interest Income 15,463 18,645 22,158 27,467Total non interest income 1,880 2,478 2,624 2,808Total Income 17,343 21,123 24,782 30,275Personnel Expenses 904 1,031 1,237 1,484Other Expenses 1,914 1,833 2,042 2,395Total Op expenses 2,818 2,864 3,279 3,879Net Inc (Loss) before prov 14,524 18,259 21,504 26,396Provision for NPAs 789 400 300 400Net Inc (Loss) before tax 13,736 17,709 21,104 25,946Provision for Income Tax 3,504 4,781 5,698 7,006Net Profit 10,232 12,927 15,406 18,941 Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E
Assets Cash & Bal with RBI 5,578 7,358 8,462 9,896Loans, Adv & Int accrued 778,127 903,774 1,053,872 1,238,081Investments 10,924 12,102 13,988 16,103Fixed Assets (Net) 624 686 789 868Other assets 7,861 9,040 10,046 11,051DTA 2,489 2,738 3,012 3,313Total Assets 805,602 935,698 1,090,168 1,279,311
Liabilities Share capital 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010Reserves and Surplus 63,803 74,367 87,410 103,869Subordinated Debt 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000Borrowing 657,641 798,652 924,986 1,094,027Other liabilities 43,303 21,275 35,969 39,161Provision for contingencies 9,844 10,394 10,794 11,244Total Liabilities 805,602 935,698 1,090,168 1,279,311 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
Valuation Ratios FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16EEarnings and Valuation Ratios Pre‐provision Operating RoAE (%) 23.9 26.0 26.3 27.3RoAE (%) 16.8 18.4 18.8 19.6Pre‐provision Operating ROA (%) 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2RoAB (%) 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6EPS (Rs.) 20.3 25.6 30.5 37.5Dividend per share (Rs.) 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2Book Value (Rs.) 128.3 149.3 175.1 207.7Adj BV (Rs.) 122.9 140.0 164.9 196.4 Revenue Analysis Interest income on IBA (%) 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.6Interest cost on IBL (%) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3NIM on IBA / AWF (%) 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3Core fee Inc / AWF (%) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1Portfolio gains / Total Inc (%) 3.5 6.3 5.3 4.3Op.Exp / TI (%) 16.8 14.4 13.9 13.4Op.Exp / AWF (%) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3Employee exps / Op exps (%) 32.1 36.0 37.7 38.3Tax / Pre‐tax earnings (%) 25.5 27.0 27.0 27.0 Asset Quality GNPAs / Gross Adv (%) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8NNPAs / Net Adv (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Growth Ratio Loans (%) 23.4 16.1 16.6 17.5Investments (%) (20.6) 10.8 15.6 15.1Deposits (%) 23.9 21.4 15.8 18.3Net worth (%) 14.1 16.3 17.3 18.6Net Int Income (%) 10.3 20.6 18.8 24.0Non‐fund based income (%) (15.3) 31.8 5.9 7.0Non‐Int Exp (%) 18.9 1.6 14.5 18.3Profit Before Tax (%) 11.6 28.9 19.2 22.9Net profit (%) 11.9 26.3 19.2 22.9 Capital Adequacy Ratio: 16.5 17.6 16.7 16.0Tier I (%) 11.5 12.5 12.4 12.4Internal Capital Generation rate (%) 21.4 23.1 23.1 23.8NNPAs to Equity (%) 4.3 6.2 5.8 5.4
2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Management (91 22) 2300 2999(91 22) 6667 9735
Research Engineering, Capital Goods Pharma
Deepak Jain (9122) 6667 9758 Ankur Sharma (9122) 6667 9759 Surya Patra (9122) 6667 9768Priya Ranjan (9122) 6667 9965 Aditya Bahety (9122) 6667 9986
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Manish Agarwalla (9122) 6667 9962 Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6667 9949 Neha Garg (9122) 6667 9996Sachit Motwani, CFA, FRM (9122) 6667 9953 Varun Vijayan (9122) 6667 9992
TechnicalsMetals Subodh Gupta (9122) 6667 9762
Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6667 9947 Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6667 9769Vivekanand Subbaraman (9122) 6667 9766 Dharmesh Shah (9122) 6667 9974 Database ManagerManish Pushkar (9122) 6667 9764 Vishal Randive (9122) 6667 9944
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SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited
Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka
Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199 www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm
INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited
No. 1, C‐Block, 2nd Floor, Modern Center , Jacob Circle, K. K. Marg, Mahalaxmi Mumbai 400011 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. which is regulated by SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. This report is prepared and distributed by PCIPL for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed should be construed or deemed to be construed as solicitation or as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment or derivatives. The information and opinions contained in the Report were considered by PCIPL to be valid when published. The report also contains information provided to PCIPL by third parties. The source of such information will usually be disclosed in the report. Whilst PCIPL has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that this information is correct, PCIPL does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at his or her own risk and PCIPL does not accept any liability as a result. Securities and Derivatives markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements and past performance is not necessarily an indication to future performance. This report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax and financial advisors and reach their own regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. In no circumstances it be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the Securities mentioned in it. The information contained in the research reports may have been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources, which we believe are reliable. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request. Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report. The Research Analyst certifies that he /she or his / her family members does not own the stock(s) covered in this research report. Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it or its affiliates may hold either long or short positions in such securities. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not hold more than 1% of the shares of the company(ies) covered in this report. Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL’s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety. Caution: Risk of loss in trading in can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker‐dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker‐dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. This report is intended for distribution by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a‐6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities andExchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a‐6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker‐dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Marco Polo or another U.S. registered broker dealer PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: 2nd Floor, C‐Block, Modern Centre, Mahalaxmi, Mumbai – 400011