Libya after Qaddafi
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Transcript of Libya after Qaddafi
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Libya After Gaddafi
Based on: Wolfram Lacher (2013) Fault Lines of the Revolution. Political Actors, Camps and Conflicts in the
New Libya.
Presentation by Sarah A. Lange
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Overview•Political Landscape after the fall of Gaddafi•NATO intervention •Sources of Conflict•Recommendations by Lacher and RAND•Conclusion/Update 2014•Sources
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Political Camps Many different ethnicities: Berber, Arabs, Turks, Tebou, Tuareg, black Africans
The Revolutionaries
•Main political Party: Justice and Construction (JC), President: Mohamed Sowan
•Muslim Brotherhood
•Sharia Law
“Counter Revolutionaries”
•Main party: National Forces Alliance (NFA), President: Mahmoud Jibril
•Strongest party in the GNC
•Claim to be liberal, democratic, “moderate” role of Islam
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Other actors The Independents
•Many from rural cities.
•Affiliated with specific tribes, ethnicities and/or cities
•Represent local interests
•Also divided-some JC and NFA members run as independents to raise chances in local elections
Tribes ( “the 3rd camp”)
•Includes many tribes and families loyal to Gaddafi
•Ca. 1 million people driven out of the country during the civil war-fled to Tunisia and Egypt
•Fear revenge from the revolutionaries
•Very limited political influence
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NATO Intervention •From February-October 2011
•Named: Operation Unified Protector
•Requested by the NTC
•Implementation of a no-fly zone
•Countries involved: USA, UK, Italy and France
Aim:
• End civil war
•Stop Gaddafi´s forces-cut off arms supply
•Prevent civilian casualties
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Sources of conflict•Power struggle between local and regional forces
Justice•War criminals-debate on how to with former officials of the Gaddafi RegimeSecurity •Borders not secure
•Armed conflicts between the different political camps
•Police/Army-divided loyalties
Economy
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The Libyan Economy •CIA World Factbook: “Libya's economy is structured primarily around the nation's energy sector, which generates about 95% of export earnings, 80% of GDP, and 99% of government income”.
Few foreign investors- security situation still too unpredictable
•The “Oil-Curse”-Oil rents and democratization?
•Energy production controlled by the state
•Increased welfare spending and payments to the population on bank holidays
•Large public sector-high wages
•High unemployment
•Other sectors underdeveloped-low wages
•Control over oil fields fought over by militias and GNC-loyal groups
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Recommendation by Lacher and RAND:•Libya needs to form strong political institutions-accountable to the public, transparent
•Lower public spending e.g. high subsidies on food and energy
•Strengthen private enterprises
•Energy sector: generation of rents and spending should become more transparent
•Outside help to manage
•e.g. service industry such as tourism
•Telecommunications-media still state-owned
•Financial sector
•Improve infrastructure to attract foreign investment
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Conclusion•New civil war deemed unlikely.
•Although there is a risk of disintegration-especially if the main political camps continue to disagree in vital issues. Could lead to a spilt of the country.
Update 2014:
•After a 8 months blockage-Libyan oil back on the market
•Loss in revenues for the Libyan government: $14 billion (10.1 billion Euros)
•Militias control most of the oil fields-used blockade as leverage.
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Thank you for your attention
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Sources:•Lacher, Wolfram (2013) Fault Lines of the Revolution. Political Actors, Camps and Conflicts in the New Libya. Berlin: German Institute for International and Security Studies (SWP Research Paper 4). Available at: http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2013_RP04_lac.pdf
•Chivvis, C. and Martini, J. (2014) Libya After Qaddafi-Lessons and Implications for the Future. [online] Santa Monica: RAND Cooperation. Available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR500/RR577/RAND_RR577.pdf
•AFP (2014) Libyan oil back on global markets-after blockade that cost $14 billion. Your Middle East [online]. Available at: http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/business/libyan-oil-back-on-global-markets-after-blockade-that-cost-14-billion_22908
•Stephen, C. (2014) Chaos as Libya´s war crimes ‘trial of the century’ fails to produce Gaddafi´s sons. The Guardian [online]. Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/14/libya-war-crimes-trial-gaddafi-sons-observers-barred