© 2018 Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System

Up Your Game: Leveraging Models and

Concepts to Increase your Effectiveness

Phil Jochimsenphil.jochimsen@wisc.edu

UW-Madison DoIT

ITProConf 5/31/2018

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“All Models are Wrong...

...some are useful”*

- Statistician George Box

* This aphorism was phrased by him various ways over the years. Additional details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong

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Models/Concepts• Name the Game• Internal vs. External

Locus of Control• Crucial Conversations• Wall of Confusion• Dunning-Kruger• Cone of Uncertainty

• Lead/Lag Measures• Theory of Constraints• Agile/Scrum - Not just

for Software• Lean Six Sigma• Anti-Patterns• 3D Negotiating

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Name the Game• Generally, once someone “Names the Game”,

you know what to do.• Be aware there may be a model or concept that

helps explain your current situation

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Internal vs. External Locus of ControlInternal:

• Assume Responsibility

• “I have control over my choices”

External:

• Abdicate Responsibility

• “I am a victim of external forces”

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Crucial Conversations

Link to short summary: https://www.progressivedairy.com/topics/management/crucial-conversations-on-your-dairy

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Wall of Confusion• Dev: New features!• Ops: Change nothing!• Competing Incentives

& Priorities = Recipe for Confusion

• Solution: elevate shared goals

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Dunning-Kruger Effect

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Cone of Uncertainty• Mathematical model• Estimation is a

range• More information =

Greater Accuracy • Don’t wait for perfect

information to act

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Lead/Lag MeasuresLag Measures:• Commonly called “Metrics”• Can not be directly

changed• Only tells you about the

past• Ex: Weight, Software

Quality Measures, Cybersecurity

Lead Measures:• Actions you can take to

influence Lag Measures• Must be tested• Predicts the future• Ex: Exercise/Diet, Work In

Process (WIP), Attitudes about Cybersecurity

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Theory of ConstraintsEvery process (set of steps)has a bottleneck (a constraint)that determines (has a causal relationship)the maximum throughput (work over time)of that process.

• With measurements in place, you can ignore 90%+ of all steps and just improve the constraint

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Agile/Scrum• Not just for Software• Small batches of work• Quick feedback/Constant

adjustment

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Lean Six Sigma• Improve performance by

systematically removing Waste

• Lean (removal of waste)• Six Sigma (statistical tools)• Example: if a task takes 30

minutes, but takes us 10 hours before customer sees value, there is 9 ½ hrs of waste.

8 Kinds of waste:• Defects• Over-Production• Waiting• Non-Utilized Talent• Transportation• Inventory• Motion• Extra-Processing

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Anti-PatternsSilver Bullets, Seagull Management, Requirements as Architecture, Cat Hearding, ScapeGoat

Know to be wrong, yet we do it all the time. Calling these out can help us avoid them in the future. Also, because it’s known, common occurrence, there are ways to solve them.

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3D Negotiation• 1D: At the table, face to face• 2D: Deal Design• 3D: Change factors away from the table

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References & Further Reading● https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong● Crucial Conversations - by Patterson, Grenny, McMillan, Switzler. Short summary:

https://www.progressivedairy.com/topics/management/crucial-conversations-on-your-dairy● Wall of Confusion: http://dev2ops.org/2010/02/what-is-devops/● https://understandinginnovation.blog/2015/07/03/the-dunning-kruger-effect-in-innovation/● http://www.construx.com/Thought_Leadership/Books/The_Cone_of_Uncertainty/● The 4 Disciplines of Execution - by Chris McChesney, Sean Covey, Jim Huling● Nicole Forsgren, ADO Call in Episode https://www.arresteddevops.com/callinshow/● Theory of Constraints: The Phoenix Project - by Kevin Behr, George Spafford, Gene Kim● Theory of Constraints: The Goal - by Eliyahu Goldratt● Agile/Scrum: Jeff Sutherland - twice the work in half the time https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4thQcgLCqk&t=20s● https://www.wisc.edu/search/?q=lean+six+sigma● https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_Six_Sigma● http://c2.com/cgi/fullSearch?search=CategoryAntiPattern● https://hbr.org/2003/11/3-d-negotiation-playing-the-whole-game● 3D Negotiation - by David A. Lax, James K. Sebenius