Leuven Climate Week 2016 — The opportunity of sustainable mobility

The challenge and opportunity of a low carbon economy

sustainable mobility Serge de Gheldere

@sergedg

futureproofed.com

Must we change?

Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels

0

2250

4500

6750

9000

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

of C

arbo

n

Source: U.S. Department of Energy/CDIAC

The energy trapped by man-madeglobal warming pollution is now

“…equivalent to exploding

Hiroshima atomic bombsper day 365 days per year.”

400,000James Hansen

Former Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

14 of the 15 Hottest Years on Record HaveOccurred Since the Year 2001

Data: NASA/GISS

2005 2007 2002 1998

2009 2006 2012 2011 2004

2010

2013

2014

2003

2015

14 of the 15 Hottest Years on Record HaveOccurred Since the Year 2001

Data: NASA/GISS

2015

Data: NASA/GISS

“I had 400 acres of wheat, and now it’s all desert.”Ahmed Abdullah, Syrian farmer

October 2010

© 2010 Julien Goldstein/The New York Times/Redux

Global risks of highest concern for the next 10 years

World Economic Forum, 2016

1. Water crisis2. Failure of climate change

mitigation and adaptation3. Extreme weather events4. Food crisis5. Profound social instability

Global risks of highest concern for the next 10 years

World Economic Forum, 2016

All of this is now, and with ‘only’

0.8 °C

Reduction routes

A

B

2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

ly em

issio

ns

Reduction routes

A

B

2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

ly em

issio

ns

Reduction routes

A

B

Fixed yearly reduction percentage

2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

ly em

issio

ns

Reduction routes

A

B


Fixed yearly reduction quantity

2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

ly em

issio

ns

Reduction routes

A

B


Fixed yearly reduction quantity

Delayed reduction

2020 2030 2040 2050

Emiss

ions

per

yea

r A

B

“Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions

C

2010 2050 2100

Emiss

ions

per

yea

r A

B


Carbon budget

C

2010 2050 2100

Emiss

ions

per

yea

r A

B


Carbon budget

Budgettrespass

C

2010 2050 2100

Emiss

ions

per

yea

r A

B


Carbon budget

Budgettrespass

C

Net negative emissions

2010 2050 2100

CO2e

em

issio

ns E

U (M

ton/

jaar)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

-40%

-95%

Reduction routes to -95% in 2050

-79%

-58%

Europe

Science

Must we change?

Can we change?

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

Global Wind Energy Capacity1980 – Present

Win

d C

apac

ity (M

egaw

atts

)

Data: Earth Policy Institute

0 €

50 €

100 €

150 €

200 €

250 €

0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Onshore Wind Cost1984 – 2014

Euro

s Pe

r Meg

awat

t Hou

r

Megawatts DeployedData: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0 €

50 €

100 €

150 €

200 €

250 €

0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Onshore Wind Cost1984 – 2014

Euro

s Pe

r Meg

awat

t Hou

r

Megawatts Deployed

1984

1990

2000

2004

2014

Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

$0 B

$30 B

$60 B

$90 B

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E

Global Lithium Ion Battery Market$

US

Bill

ion

Source: Navigant and Bernstein estimates and analysis

$0 B

$30 B

$60 B

$90 B

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E

Global Lithium Ion Battery Market$

US

Bill

ion

Source: Navigant and Bernstein estimates and analysis

Small Batteries

Vehicle Batteries

Energy Storage Systems

$500

$1.000

$1.500

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

$ U

S pe

r kW

h

Data: 2014 Citigroup

Large Lithium Ion Battery Cost Trend

917 PJ =

Can we change?

Will we change?

Landbouw & Natuur 4%

Industrie 14%

Transport 24%

Handel & diensten 26%

Huishoudens 32%

HuishoudensHandel & dienstenTransportIndustrieLandbouw & NatuurEnergieproductie

A B

----

----

scope 1 & 2

transport van personen

scope 1 & 2

televisie thuis

scope 1 & 2

niet energie

Fermob colors

materialen & diensten

transport van personen

energieverbruik

vaste activa

vracht

direct afval - water

afval verpakking producten

niet energetisch

Future-proofed

Future

proofed

kg

!

!"#$

The density of the Belgian highway network is far above

European average

14

Density of Highway network, km / 1000 km2

SOURCE: Chiffres-Clés de la Wallonie, IWEPS; Instituts statistiques régionaux, Climact

57

20

35

26

58

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

EU

-2

7

15

EU

-1

5

Lu

xe

mb

ou

rg

Average EU-15

UK

15

Th

e N

eth

erla

nd

s

Ge

rm

an

y

Fra

nce

17

De

nm

ark

Belgium

▪ This high density

is an asset

regarding logistic

activities, but

makes it more

difficult to

perform a modal

switch away from

road transport for

passenger and

goods

transportation

NAAR EENKOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ

Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België

tegen 2050Samenvatting van de bevindingen

1976

2000

Prognose 2050 (KUL, Poelmans, 2010) In 1976 was 7,2% van de Vlaamse oppervlakte bebouwd. Eind jaren tachtig nam dat toe tot 12% en begin 2000 zaten we al aan 18%. Als de bebouwing tegen het huidige tempo doorgaat, dan zal in 2050 maar liefst 41,5% van Vlaanderen bebouwd zijn (KUL, Poelmans, 2010), …

… een groot deel daarvan alleen met de auto bereikbaar, met de stedelijke leefbaarheid als eerste slachtoffer.

NOx air pollution map Europe

5 levers for decarbonisingBelgian transport sector

1.Reduce transport kms

2.Increase occupancy level

3.Modal shift

4.Increase efficiency

5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.beNAAR EEN

KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ



http://www.klimaat.be

Question

A

B

C

How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?

90%

50%

13%

Question

C


13%

Question

C


13% Engine loss 62%

Question

C


13% Idling loss 17%

Engine loss 62%

Question

C


13%

Drivetrain loss 6%

Idling loss 17%

Engine loss 62%

Question

C


13%

Accessory loss 2%

Drivetrain loss 6%

Idling loss 17%

Engine loss 62%

Question

C


13%

Braking resistance 6%

Accessory loss 2%

Drivetrain loss 6%

Idling loss 17%

Engine loss 62%

Question

C


13%

Rolling resistance 4%


Accessory loss 2%

Drivetrain loss 6%

Idling loss 17%

Engine loss 62%

Question

C


13%

Aerodynamic drag 3%

Rolling resistance 4%


Accessory loss 2%

Drivetrain loss 6%

Idling loss 17%

Engine loss 62%

Well to wheel efficiencies

The True Multi-Fuel Car The beauty of powering cars with electricity from the grid is that we can generate the electricity any way we want without changing the cars. As we have seen, we can generate electricity with our choice of fossil fuels. We can also use nuclear fuel, or we can generate it with any of a number of “green” sources, such as hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, or biomass. Electricity is the universal currency of energy, and we already have a comprehensive distribution system for it.

Proponents of hydrogen fuel-cell cars regularly compare the forecasted best efficiency of hydrogen production and conversion – in futuristic plants and fuel cells that have never been built – to the efficiency of the average existing electric generation plant – including all those 25% to 30% efficient power plants that were built in the 1950s. This is not a fair comparison – if we are willing to build all-new hydrogen production plants to power a hydrogen car future, then we should be just as willing to build new electric generators to power an electric car future. We have assumed 60% efficient best-of-breed electric generators, but not science-fiction electric generators.

However, natural gas accounts for only 14.9%20 of U.S. electricity generation; the rest is a mix of coal, nuclear, and others. The average well-to-outlet efficiency of U.S. electric generation, including all the old, inefficient power plants, is about 41%.21 With this efficiency, our electric car has a well-to-wheel energy efficiency of 0.83 km/MJ, still the most efficient car on the road.

Of course, fuel-cell cars are also multi-fuel cars, since hydrogen can be produced from water using electricity from any source. But this is a very inefficient way to use electricity. Consider the following chart:

Hydrogen Production

Battery Electric Car

Grid-to-Motor Efficiency = 86%

Fuel-Cell Car

Grid-to-Motor Efficiency = 25%

Electricity from Grid

Inverter & Electric Motor

in Car

Li-ion Battery

93% efficient

H2O Electrolysis

70% efficient

H2 Compressor

90% efficient

H2 Fuel Cell

40% efficient

Electricity from Grid

Charger

93% efficient

Inverter & Electric Motor

in Car

It is obvious that when we start with electricity (however it is produced), it is hard to beat the 86% efficiency of the currently available lithium-ion batteries and chargers. Even when we assume extremely high efficiencies for electrolysis, compression, and the fuel cell, the fuel-cell car requires more than three times as much electricity from the grid to drive the same distance.

Copyright © 2006 Tesla Motors Inc. Page 5 of 10

50%

31%




3.Modal shift


5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.beNAAR EEN

KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ







3.Modal shift


5.Use renewable energyKlimaat.be

NAAR EENKOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ




We are the people who could be shaping

the next industrial revolution.

• DE MORGENZATERDAG 9 NOVEMBER 20134 • DMKLIMAAT

‘Vuile gammele treinen. Stinkende, troosteloze fileswaarje ziek vanwordt.Willenwedat nu echt?Nog altijd?’MilieupoliticoloogHansBruyninckx (49), sindsvijfmaandenhoofd vanhet EuropeesMilieuAgentschapinKopenhagen, over de oppeppende kracht vanschone lucht, helderwater en kennis overde opwarmendewereldbol.tekst: BarbaraDebusscherefoto’s: Thomas Sweertvaegher

Interview Hans Bruyninckx, hoofd van het Europees Milieu Agentschap

Choose your future

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@sergedg

Leuven Climate Week 2016 — The opportunity of sustainable mobility

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