LETTUCE REGULAR ANALYSIS YEAR TO 21/02/2015. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and...

LETTUCE REGULAR ANALYSISYEAR TO 21/02/2015

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1. Market Overview

2. Demographics

3. Retail Health Situation by State

Agenda

This analysis is part of a vegetable consumer purchase data project funded by HIA using the vegetable levy and matched funds from the Australian Government. This report captures only Fresh Vegetables and excludes processed vegetables (e.g. Fresh Sweet Corn excluding Canned Sweet Corn; Fresh Beans excluding Canned Beans).

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HIGHLIGHTS

RECOMMENDATIONSPerformance improvement may come from recouping a dwindling buyer base. Understand why some household groups are not buying Lettuce this year. Greatest contraction in Lettuce buying households is evident among Young Transitionals, Independent Singles, and Senior Couples. Are they preferring to eat Lettuce as part of salads therefore purchasing them out of the home or in pre-prepared formats?

Lettuce is not performing well in terms of Volume sales across all retailers. Understand if demand is shifting to meal-ready formats like salad mixes or sandwich packs? Coles is especially disadvantaged from a conversion perspective. Investigate status of quality, freshness, or supply consistency to bridge the gap with Woolworths.

Colmar Brunton (Wave Nov ‘14) cites “health” as one of the key reasons for Lettuce consumption. New research has emerged around the health benefits of Lettuce in protecting people from hypertension*. This angle can be explored from a marketing perspective to regain consumer engagement for the vegetable.*http://ausfoodnews.com.au/2014/05/21/combination-of-olive-oil-and-salad-leaves-may-protect-from-high-blood-pressure.html

Lettuce represents 1.2% of volume and 4.7% value market share. Its buyer base has reduced along with a decline in annual consumption and average $ spend.

Senior Couples and Bustling Families are important for Lettuce; they account for more volume share than their share of buyers. Senior Couples are the only group to have increased their purchase frequency this year.

Larger households (3 or more members) are key buyers for Lettuce, accounting for half of its volume sales while representing only 44% buyers.

Volume sales declined across all retailers except Coles, driving the decline for Lettuce. Coles, Woolworths and IGA lost significant value sales this year, contributing to the drop in value sales for Lettuce.

64% of Woolworths shoppers who buy Lettuce, prefer to purchase it at Woolworths stores, whereas the corresponding conversion rate is just about 59% for Coles.

VIC, accounts for a quarter of total $ spend on Lettuce, and have witnessed maximum buyer contraction amongst all Australian states.

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Market OverviewLettuce

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Share of Market VolumeTotal VegetablesAustralia

Share of Market ValueTotal VegetablesAustralia

Market share of Lettuce has gone down this year, reaching 1.2% of volume and 4.7% of value market share.

Source: Nielsen Homescan

Last year This year

22.6% 22.9%

22.8% 22.4%

10.8% 11.1%

11.0% 10.6%

10.1% 10.1%

5.6% 5.3%

5.6% 5.9%4.9% 5.1%3.1% 3.2%2.2% 2.3%1.3% 1.2%

Last year This year

35.9% 36.3%

11.4% 11.5%

4.7% 4.5%

14.2% 14.0%

4.2% 4.1%3.9% 4.2%3.0% 3.0%2.4% 2.7%7.8% 7.6%7.5% 7.5%

5.0% 4.7%

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T. Vegetables Lettuce Asian Veg-etables

Cabbage Tomatoes Cucumbers Capsicum Fresh Salad

365.3

21.1 10.8 7.454.2

17.6 20.4 35.1

380.5

20.7 11.4 8.055.9

19.8 21.4 36.1



88.9

1.3 1.6 2.010.2 6.2 1.4 2.5

87.4

1.2 1.7 2.09.6 5.7 1.5 2.5



99.786.7

32.9

55.9

95.480.9 76.4 77.7

99.685.6

32.6

56.3

95.380.5 76.5 78.4

How many Households buy

annually?

How much (Kg) do they buy per year?

How much ($) do they spend per year?

This YearLast year


Lettuce witnessed buyer leakage of 87,927 households this year, with a corresponding drop in their average annual $ spend and consumption.

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How much ($) do they spend per occasion?

How much (Kg) do they buy per occasion?

How often do they buy annually?




50.4

9.14.4 3.7

16.810.1 9.2 8.0

50.7

8.84.5 3.7

16.49.8 9.1 8.2



1.77

0.140.36

0.54 0.61 0.61

0.160.31

1.73

0.140.37

0.56 0.59 0.58

0.160.31



7.25

2.31 2.46 2.02

3.23

1.752.22

4.42

7.51

2.35 2.53 2.19

3.41

2.01 2.34

4.43

The drop in average spend is due to a decline in the purchase frequency this year.

This YearLast year

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9Source: Nielsen Homescan

4 W

/E 2

3/03

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

0/04

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

8/05

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

5/06

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

3/07

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

0/08

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

7/09

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

5/10

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

2/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 3

0/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

8/12

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

5/01

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/02

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/03

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

9/04

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

7/05

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

4/06

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

2/07

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

9/08

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

6/09

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

4/10

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

1/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

9/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

7/12

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

4/01

/201

5

4 W

/E 2

1/02

/201

5

43.2

38.436.3

31.128.5 29.7

36.1 37.841.5 40.7

45.147.7 46.2

41.138.7

32.8 32.229.1 29.4

34.0

39.041.7 42.0 42.0

44.542.5

0.2

0.2 0.2 0.20.2

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.2

0.20.2 0.2

0.20.2

0.2 0.20.2

0.2

0.2 0.20.2 0.2

0.2 0.2 0.2

Penetration of households Average volume per household every 4 weeks

Post the seasonal peak of January, household reach in February is lower this year as compared to last year.

Kg

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4 W

/E 2

3/03

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

0/04

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

8/05

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

5/06

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

3/07

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

0/08

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

7/09

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

5/10

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

2/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 3

0/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

8/12

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

5/01

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/02

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/03

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

9/04

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

7/05

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

4/06

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

2/07

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

9/08

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

6/09

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

4/10

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

1/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

9/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

7/12

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

4/01

/201

5

4 W

/E 2

1/02

/201

5

43.2

38.436.3

31.128.5 29.7

36.1 37.841.5 40.7

45.147.7 46.2

41.138.7

32.8 32.229.1 29.4

34.0

39.041.7 42.0 42.0

44.542.5

3.4

3.9

3.6

3.1 3.1

3.43.2 3.2

3.7 3.83.9

3.8 3.74.0

3.5 3.63.5

3.2

3.63.4

3.23.4 3.4

3.6

4.14.3

Penetration of households Average $ spend per household every 4 weeks

The average monthly spend on Lettuce is growing steadily since October and has reached a 2-year high in Feb ‘15.

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4 W

/E 2

3/03

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

0/04

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

8/05

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

5/06

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

3/07

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

0/08

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

7/09

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

5/10

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

2/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 3

0/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

8/12

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

5/01

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/02

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/03

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

9/04

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

7/05

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

4/06

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

2/07

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

9/08

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

6/09

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

4/10

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

1/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

9/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

7/12

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

4/01

/201

5

4 W

/E 2

1/02

/201

5

3.4

3.93.6

3.1 3.13.4

3.2 3.2

3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.74.0

3.5 3.6 3.53.2

3.63.4

3.23.4 3.4

3.6

4.14.3

2.19

2.552.36

2.14 2.21 2.29 2.18 2.162.42 2.43 2.53

2.31 2.282.47 2.35 2.44 2.33 2.29

2.482.28 2.15 2.19 2.21

2.352.52

2.66

1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6

Average $ spend per household every 4 weeks $ spend per purchase occasion Average purchase occasion every 4 weeks

The growth in average spend is a result of rise in the $ spend on Lettuce in each trip, this month compared to same period year ago.

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DemographicsLettuce

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Distribution of BuyersAustralia

Distribution of VolumeAustralia

Last Year This Year

6% 7%

10% 10%

15% 15%

9% 8%

18% 18%

23% 23%

18% 19%

Last Year This Year

5% 6%

11% 11%

18% 18%

6% 5%

14% 13%

23%23%

22% 24%

Senior Couples and Bustling Families are heavy consumers of Lettuce as they account for more volume sales than their buyer share. Senior Couples increased their volume consumption this year.

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annually?

Note: The difference in the bar heights for same data labels is due to the difference in decimal points. The data has been rounded up to one decimal point. Source: Nielsen Homescan



ALL SHOPPERS START UP FAM-ILIES

SMALL SCALE FAMILIES

BUSTLING FAMILIES

YOUNG TRANSITION-

ALS

INDEPENDENT SINGLES

ESTABLISHED COUPLES

SENIOR COUPLES

86.7 90.1 91.4 93.683.1

74.388.2 92.785.6 88.0 89.9 94.4

78.2 73.188.3 90.3



BUSTLING FAM-ILIES

YOUNG TRANSITION-

ALS

INDEPENDENT SINGLES

ESTABLISHED COUPLES

SENIOR COUPLES

9.1 8.79.7

10.6

7.9 7.2

9.310.1

8.8 8.09.4 10.1

7.0 6.8

8.910.3



BUSTLING FAM-ILIES

YOUNG TRANSITION-

ALS

INDEPENDENT SINGLES

ESTABLISHED COUPLES

SENIOR COUPLES

0.140.12

0.15 0.150.12

0.14 0.140.16

0.14 0.13 0.14 0.14

0.100.13 0.14

0.15

Gains in Bustling Family & Established Couple households could not offset the buyer contraction witnessed by other groups. Senior Couples are the only group to have increased their purchase frequency this year.

This YearLast year

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Distribution of BuyersAustralia

Distribution of VolumeAustralia

Last Year This Year

56% 56%

17% 17%

17% 17%

11% 11%

Last Year This Year

51% 50%

17% 18%

18% 19%

14% 14%

Larger households (3 or more members) are the key buyers for Lettuce as they account for half of volume sales while representing 44% of buyer base.

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annually?



ALL SHOPPERS HH SIZE 1-2 MEMBERS HH SIZE 3 MEMBERS HH SIZE 4 MEMBERS HH SIZE 5+ MEMBERS

86.7 82.691.9 92.4 93.3

85.6 81.191.1 92.5 92.5


9.1 8.49.6 9.9

11.2

8.8 8.19.3 9.7 10.5


0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.150.14 0.14 0.14 0.140.15

Smaller households (1-2 members) witnessed the greatest loss of 69,977 buying households .

This YearLast year

Note: The difference in the bar heights for same data labels is due to the difference in decimal points. The data has been rounded up to one decimal point. Source: Nielsen Homescan

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Retail HealthSituation by StateLettuce

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Share by RetailersThis YearLettuce

Sales vs. Last YearThis year vs. Last yearLettuce

Other Supermarkets

Non Supermarkets

Volu

me

Valu

e

Lettuce declined by -6% in volume sales driven by losses across all retailers, except Coles where it was flat. Coles, Woolworths and IGA drove the decline in terms of value sales.


24%

5%

3%

11%31%

26%

-4%-3%

-14%-12%

-8%

0%

-6%

2%

4%

3%

-4%-4%

-3%-2%

22%

4%

7%

9%34%

24%

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Source: Nielsen Homescan Total Market: AUS Shared to: T. Fresh Frt Veg Dried Frt Nut Condition: Defined Market: AUS Defined Product: T. Fresh Frt Veg Dried Frt Nut Defined Fact: Purchase Value Defined Period: MAT TO 21/02/2015

Copyright © Page 1 of 1

Homescan isights v3.0 .Dictionary v1.5


Just over 64% of Woolworths shoppers are purchasing Lettuce on their shopping trips to Woolworths. This rate fairs well compared to other comparable vegetables but has room to improve relative to Tomatoes & Fresh Salad.

Account Shopper ConversionYear to 21/02/2015| Woolworths (WW)

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Source: Nielsen Homescan Total Market: AUS Shared to: T. Fresh Frt Veg Dried Frt Nut Condition: Defined Market: AUS Defined Product: T. Fresh Frt Veg Dried Frt Nut Defined Fact: Purchase Value Defined Period: MAT TO 21/02/2015

Copyright © Page 1 of 1

Homescan isights v3.0 .Dictionary v1.5


Conversion rate for Coles is almost 5 percentage points lower than Woolworths’, with just about 59% of shoppers buying Lettuce in this retailer.

Account Shopper ConversionYear to 21/02/2015| Coles

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88.2 85.4

1.1 1.1

SA + NT (9%)

VIC (25%)

NSW (32%)

QLD (22%)

WA (9%)

Average KG per Buyer

Penetration this year vs. last year

( ) State share of Lettuce $ sales consumption

Is there a particular State driving the category performance?


85.8 83.9

1.71.5

86.9 86.4

1.41.2

87.3 87.5

1.4 1.4

85.3 85.1

1.2

1.1

Consumption has declined across all Australian states except QLD and VIC.

QLD is the only state to have added Lettuce buying households, whereas, VIC, accounting for a quarter of total Lettuce value sales, witnessed the greatest buyer leakage.

THANK YOU

LETTUCE REGULAR ANALYSIS YEAR TO 21/02/2015. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and...

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Transcript of LETTUCE REGULAR ANALYSIS YEAR TO 21/02/2015. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and...