LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE ERUPTION OF

INDONESIA’S MOUNT SINABUNG

February 3, 2014

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for

Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE INDONESIA’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE INDONESIA’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE INDONESIA’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE INDONESIA’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK

EARTHQUAKES

CYCLONES

FLOODS

LANDSLIDES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

MOUNT SINABUNGNorth Sumatra

FEBRUARY 3, 2012

Scalding ash up to 700 degrees C raced down the slope in just two to three

minutes, engulfing Sukameriah, a village close

to the volcano's crater.

15 DEATHS—THE FIRST TIME THIS VOLCANOE’S ERUPTION HAS CAUSED

DEATHS

All the deaths and at least 3 injuries were in Sukameriah

NOVEMBER 3, 2012

VOLCANOES

PART OF THE PACIFIC “RING OF FIRE,” INDONESIA HAS 127 ACTIVE VOLCANOES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX SUBDUCTION

OF THE INDO-AUSTRALIA AND EURASIATECTONIC PLATES

542 OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ARE LOCATED IN “RING OF FIRE”

542 OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ARE LOCATED IN “RING OF FIRE”

INDONESIA

INDONESIA’S VOLCANOES

ESSENTIAL KNOWLEDGE ON VOLCANOES

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS

• VERTICAL PLUME (can affect jet aircraft)

• ASH AND TEPHRA

• LATERAL BLAST

• PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS

• LAVA FLOWS

• LAHARS (can bury villages)

• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)

• “VOLCANIC WINTER” (causing famine and mass extinctions)

LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

FLYING DEBRIS

VOLCANIC ASH

LAVA FLOWS

LAHARS

TOXIC GASES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

INDONESIA’SINDONESIA’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

INDONESIA’SINDONESIA’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•VOLCANO HAZARDS•PEOPLE & BLDGS. •VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: VOLCANO GOAL: VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

INDONESIA’S MOST NOTABLE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Lake Toba

Mount Tambora

Krakatau

Merapi

INDONESIA’S NOTABLE ERUPTIONS

• Lake Toba: Supervolcanic eruption 74,000 years ago that caused 6 years of volcanic winter

• Mount Tambora: One of the most violent eruptions in recorded history that occurred in 1815.

• Krakatau: Notable for its global effects in 1883

INDONESIA’S MOST ACTIVE VOLCANES AT PRESENT

Mount Sinabung

Mount Kelut

Mount Merapi

Since AD 1000, Kelut has erupted more than 30 times,

with the largest eruption having a Volcanic

Explosivity Index (VEI) of 5

Thousands have died in these eruptions

Merapi has erupted more than 80 times

Thousands have died in these eruptions

SUDDEN CHANGE IN ACTIVITYSince December 26, 2004 when the M9.3 Banda Ache earthquake and

tsunami occurred, volcanic activity increased and some of Indonesia’s dormant volcanoes

became active again.

ERUPTIONS OF MOUNT MERAPI

May 15, and June 6 - 8, 2006

MOUNT MERAPI RECEIVED CLOSE ATTENTION ON APRIL 18

INDONESIA’S MOUNT MERAPI ERUPTED ON MAY 15, 2006

• Mount Merapi, a stratovolcano, emitted lava, debris, and a pyroclastic flow (or cloud) on May 15.

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION

• Hot ash released.

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION

• Volcanic ash turned everything white

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION

• School children wore masks to counter adverse health effects of breathing volcanic ash.

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION

• Volcanic ash covered crops and vegetation.

MAY 15, 2006 ERUPTION

• Volcanic ash covered automobiles and affected jet airline traffic.

MOUNT MERAPI ERUPTED AGAIN ON JUNE 6-8, 2006

• Mount Merapi volcano emitted lava, debris, and pyroclastic flows (superheated clouds of gas) on Tuesday, June 6 and Wednesday, June 7.

EXPLOSIVENESS OF JUNE 8 ERUPTION SENT 15,000 FLEEING

EVACUATION

• 11,000 from three districts evacuated to schools and other “safe haven” emer-gency shelters.

MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE

• Many citizens chose to evacuate.

• Evacuation was ordered.

• Villagers remembered the 1994 disaster.

MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE

• Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they wanted to provide for livestock and tend crops.

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• EVENTEVENT

POLICY ASSESSMENT

• COSTCOST

• BENEFITBENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR VOLCANOESFOR VOLCANOES

VOLCANIC VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSERUPTIONS EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

THE KEYS TO RESILIENCE: 1) KNOW THE ERUPTIVE HISTORY OF

YOUR REGION’S VOLCANOES,2) BE PREPARED

3) HAVE A WARNING SYSTEM 4) EVACUATE

5) LEARN FROM THE EXPERIENCE AND START OVER

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF SURVIVAL.

AIR AND LAND MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES ARE VITAL

.