“Lessons From the Web” Tsinghua University, Beijing April 2008 Bebo White...

““Lessons Lessons From From the the

Web”Web”Tsinghua University, Tsinghua University,

BeijingBeijing

April 2008April 2008

Bebo WhiteBebo White

[email protected]@slac.stanford.edu

The Web Will Be 20 Years The Web Will Be 20 Years Old Next YearOld Next Year

The Chinese Web Will Be The Chinese Web Will Be 14 Years Old Next Week14 Years Old Next Week

No One Predicted the No One Predicted the WebWeb

Science fiction is sometimes a good Science fiction is sometimes a good predictor of the future:predictor of the future: It wasn’t in “Star Trek” or “2001: A Space It wasn’t in “Star Trek” or “2001: A Space

Odyssey”Odyssey”

The Web was not the first hypertext systemThe Web was not the first hypertext system Vannevar Bush’s MemexVannevar Bush’s Memex Ted Nelson’s XanaduTed Nelson’s Xanadu Apple’s Knowledge NavigatorApple’s Knowledge Navigator

None were really glimpses of the WebNone were really glimpses of the Web

The Web Was The Web Was UnpredictableUnpredictable

The Web Was Invented to The Web Was Invented to Solve a ProblemSolve a Problem

To facilitate the sharing of documents and To facilitate the sharing of documents and services within international high-energy services within international high-energy physics collaborationsphysics collaborations

To “make life easier” for computer-phobic To “make life easier” for computer-phobic physicistsphysicists

The Invention of the Web The Invention of the Web Was a ConvergenceWas a Convergence

The demands of the physics/scientific The demands of the physics/scientific communitiescommunities

State of technology at CERNState of technology at CERN Availability of the InternetAvailability of the Internet Popularity of client-server systemsPopularity of client-server systems Adoption of SGML for document processingAdoption of SGML for document processing Interest in the NeXT and OOPInterest in the NeXT and OOP

Tim B-L’s interestsTim B-L’s interests Hypertext systemsHypertext systems Open source softwareOpen source software

The Web Was NOT an The Web Was NOT an Immediate SuccessImmediate Success

An interesting computer science exerciseAn interesting computer science exercise Another documentation system (and no one Another documentation system (and no one

likes to write documentation)likes to write documentation) It took a great deal of “evangelism”It took a great deal of “evangelism”

The First Web T-ShirtThe First Web T-Shirt

Today’s Web T-ShirtToday’s Web T-Shirt

Today’s Web T-ShirtToday’s Web T-Shirt

•155,230,051 Web sites (news.netcraft.com – 12/07

•45,045.045 sites/square inch

•212.23 sites/inch

The Web Took Off Not For The Web Took Off Not For the Reasons It Was the Reasons It Was

Invented (1/3)Invented (1/3) February, 1993 – the Mosaic browserFebruary, 1993 – the Mosaic browser

April, 1993 – the NCSA Httpd serverApril, 1993 – the NCSA Httpd server

Netscape Netscape


Invented (2/3)Invented (2/3) February, 1993 – the Mosaic browserFebruary, 1993 – the Mosaic browser

April, 1993 – the NCSA Httpd serverApril, 1993 – the NCSA Httpd server

NetscapeNetscape IPO announced 11/95IPO announced 11/95 No profitable quarterNo profitable quarter Priced at $28 (typical tech was $15)Priced at $28 (typical tech was $15) Opened at $71, peaked at $75, closed at $58Opened at $71, peaked at $75, closed at $58

The Internet “big bang” had begun! The Internet “big bang” had begun!


Invented (3/3)Invented (3/3) March, 2000 – Yahoo! Hits a market value of March, 2000 – Yahoo! Hits a market value of

$104 billion – greater than the entire US $104 billion – greater than the entire US auto industry, parts suppliers includedauto industry, parts suppliers included

The browser warsThe browser wars

It Took Off BecauseIt Took Off Because

It was unpredictedIt was unpredicted There are no expectations as to form or There are no expectations as to form or

functionfunction

It is unpredictableIt is unpredictable There are no rules guiding its evolutionThere are no rules guiding its evolution It is dynamic (unlike a traditional data It is dynamic (unlike a traditional data

collection)collection)

It Works Because (1/2)It Works Because (1/2)

It is huge, but scaleableIt is huge, but scaleable It is unconstrained in its scopeIt is unconstrained in its scope URIs workURIs work

It is hyperlinkedIt is hyperlinked Easy to add content toEasy to add content to Searching is possibleSearching is possible Discovery/surfing is funDiscovery/surfing is fun

It Works Because (2/2)It Works Because (2/2)

Web technologies are intended to be interoperableWeb technologies are intended to be interoperable The Web is based on a large collection of The Web is based on a large collection of

technologiestechnologies No technology can pretend to cover all needs on the No technology can pretend to cover all needs on the

WebWeb Hence the interoperability of technologies is Hence the interoperability of technologies is

necessarynecessary

Web standards should be open and not Web standards should be open and not proprietaryproprietary

The Web should be accessible to allThe Web should be accessible to all

It is Successful It is Successful Because (1/2)Because (1/2)

Simple architecture – HTTP, URI, HTMLSimple architecture – HTTP, URI, HTML

Networked – value grows with data, services, Networked – value grows with data, services, usersusers

Extensible – from Web of documents to…Extensible – from Web of documents to…

Tolerant – works with imperfect markup, Tolerant – works with imperfect markup, data, links, softwaredata, links, software

Universal – independent of hardware, Universal – independent of hardware, operating system, software, language, abilityoperating system, software, language, ability

It is Successful It is Successful Because (2/2)Because (2/2)

Free/cheap – browsers, information, Free/cheap – browsers, information, servicesservices

Simple (and fun) for users – text, Simple (and fun) for users – text, multimedia, linksmultimedia, links

Powerful – for people and machinesPowerful – for people and machines

Built upon open standardsBuilt upon open standards

Learned Perspectives of Learned Perspectives of the Web (1/2)the Web (1/2)

It is both a technical and a social It is both a technical and a social phenomenonphenomenon

It has grown into a huge and complex It has grown into a huge and complex organism organism

Learned Perspectives of Learned Perspectives of the Web (2/2)the Web (2/2)

The computer science perspective: The computer science perspective: infrastructure and intelligent systemsinfrastructure and intelligent systems

The information science and knowledge The information science and knowledge management perspectives: data, management perspectives: data, information, knowledge, wisdom hierarchyinformation, knowledge, wisdom hierarchy

The social intelligence perspectives: The social intelligence perspectives: connectivity, social network intelligenceconnectivity, social network intelligence

Application perspectives: e-commerceApplication perspectives: e-commerce

5 Laws of the Web5 Laws of the Web

These laws have evolved from the evolution These laws have evolved from the evolution of the Web:of the Web:

1.1. Web resources are for useWeb resources are for use

2.2. Every user his or her Web resourceEvery user his or her Web resource

3.3. Every Web resource its userEvery Web resource its user

4.4. Save the time of the userSave the time of the user

5.5. The Web is a growing organismThe Web is a growing organism(Ref: Noruzi)

Is It Possible to Use Is It Possible to Use These Lessons to Predict These Lessons to Predict the Future of the Web?the Future of the Web?

No one predicted the “dot-com” bustNo one predicted the “dot-com” bust

No one predicted Web 2.0No one predicted Web 2.0

Is it a lesson from the past that the future Is it a lesson from the past that the future of the Web is unpredictable?of the Web is unpredictable?

Diffusion Models – Tools Diffusion Models – Tools for Forecastingfor Forecasting

Models can beModels can be Quantitative – based on Quantitative – based on

mathematics/statistics – Rogers’ S-Curvemathematics/statistics – Rogers’ S-Curve Quasi-qualitative – conceptually founded – Quasi-qualitative – conceptually founded –

Gartner Group Hype cycleGartner Group Hype cycle

The Rogers’ S-Curve of The Rogers’ S-Curve of Technology Adoption Technology Adoption

S-Curve ExamplesS-Curve Examples

Ref: Paul Saffo

What Can the S-Curve Tell What Can the S-Curve Tell Us About the Web?Us About the Web?

It depends upon where we are on the curve – are we at It depends upon where we are on the curve – are we at the plateau?the plateau?

What is our perception of diffusion? Acceptance? What is our perception of diffusion? Acceptance? Ubiquity? How are people using the Web? How do they Ubiquity? How are people using the Web? How do they want/expect to use the Web? want/expect to use the Web?

Is the Web successful?Is the Web successful?

What are the intra-technology What are the intra-technology relationships/dependencies? – Web and PC, Web and TV, relationships/dependencies? – Web and PC, Web and TV, Web and mobile phone; how do the diffusions correlate?Web and mobile phone; how do the diffusions correlate?

If the S-curve is fractal, have we only reached one step If the S-curve is fractal, have we only reached one step of the Web’s future?of the Web’s future?

We Tend to Predict We Tend to Predict LinearlyLinearly

Ref: Paul Saffo

Underestimation and Underestimation and OverestimationOverestimation

Ref: Paul Saffo

S-Curves and New Eras of S-Curves and New Eras of TechnologyTechnology

Ref: Paul Saffo

Lessons from the Lessons from the Information RevolutionInformation Revolution

We won!We won!

The Web was our secret weaponThe Web was our secret weapon

Information is no longer scarce but ubiquitousInformation is no longer scarce but ubiquitous

It has become mediaIt has become media

But it can’t (IMHO) be explained merely by the But it can’t (IMHO) be explained merely by the S-curveS-curve

Where is the Web on the S-curve? It has not Where is the Web on the S-curve? It has not become invisiblebecome invisible

Gartner Group “Hype Gartner Group “Hype Cycle”Cycle”

How Much of the Web is How Much of the Web is Hype? (1/2)Hype? (1/2)

How Much of the Web is How Much of the Web is Hype? (2/2)Hype? (2/2)

Again- Is It Possible to Predict Again- Is It Possible to Predict the Future of a Technology the Future of a Technology

Like the Web?Like the Web?

No one predicted the “dot-com” bustNo one predicted the “dot-com” bust

No one predicted Web 2.0No one predicted Web 2.0

Is it a lesson from the past that the future Is it a lesson from the past that the future of the Web is unpredictable?of the Web is unpredictable?

Before the “Dot-Com” Before the “Dot-Com” BustBust

Many people thought that they had figured out Many people thought that they had figured out what Web technology was good forwhat Web technology was good for

The development of the technology was focused The development of the technology was focused on the validity of that beliefon the validity of that belief

To many the Web was synonymous e-commerceTo many the Web was synonymous e-commerce

The Web was data-centric and application-The Web was data-centric and application-centriccentric

The governance of the Web was “top-down”The governance of the Web was “top-down”

The Web had to show that it is unpredictable The Web had to show that it is unpredictable

After the “Dot-Com” After the “Dot-Com” BustBust

A re-evaluation of the Web took placeA re-evaluation of the Web took place

Web 2.0 is the result of that re-evaluationWeb 2.0 is the result of that re-evaluation

The Web becomes more user-centricThe Web becomes more user-centric

Web governance becomes “bottom-up”Web governance becomes “bottom-up”

Applications LessonsApplications Lessons

It’s the applications that make the WebIt’s the applications that make the Web

It’s the killer applications that make the It’s the killer applications that make the Web diffuseWeb diffuse

It’s also the killer applications that It’s also the killer applications that generate the hypegenerate the hype

What was the killer app of Web 1.0?What was the killer app of Web 1.0?

Killer AppsKiller Apps

It’s the killer applications that make the It’s the killer applications that make the Web diffuseWeb diffuse

It’s also the killer applications that It’s also the killer applications that generate the hypegenerate the hype

What was the killer app of Web 1.0?What was the killer app of Web 1.0? I think forms, CGI, and SSLI think forms, CGI, and SSL They drove e-commerceThey drove e-commerce Browsers were certainly killer appsBrowsers were certainly killer apps

What’s the Killer App of What’s the Killer App of the Future Web?the Future Web?

Maybe there won’t be oneMaybe there won’t be one The technology will “stand on it’s on”The technology will “stand on it’s on” ““The death of the browser”The death of the browser”



My guess is that semantics + mobility + My guess is that semantics + mobility + personalization will lead to numerous killer personalization will lead to numerous killer appsapps Think searching, education, entertainment, Think searching, education, entertainment,

sciencescience



My guess is that semantics + mobility + My guess is that semantics + mobility + personalization will lead to numerous killer appspersonalization will lead to numerous killer apps Think searching, education, entertainment, scienceThink searching, education, entertainment, science

Tim B-L once said that the days of the Web are Tim B-L once said that the days of the Web are numberednumbered It will disappear into the backgroundIt will disappear into the background The Web becomes as OS; the network is the The Web becomes as OS; the network is the

computer; the world’s largest databasecomputer; the world’s largest database This would be the “ultimate diffusion”This would be the “ultimate diffusion”

Lessons From the Past Lessons From the Past Will Define the Web of Will Define the Web of

the Futurethe Future The “dot.com bust” – what is the Web good The “dot.com bust” – what is the Web good

for?for?

User reaction/involvement – e.g., Web 2.0User reaction/involvement – e.g., Web 2.0

Standards vs. Growth (W3C vs. Designers)Standards vs. Growth (W3C vs. Designers)

The “Media Revolution” has succeeded the The “Media Revolution” has succeeded the “Information Revolution”“Information Revolution”

Portable devices with rich interfaces must be Portable devices with rich interfaces must be a part of the Web’s futurea part of the Web’s future

Are we headed for another bust?Are we headed for another bust?

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The Big Ideas of Web The Big Ideas of Web 2.02.0

Fresh, useful data is the coreFresh, useful data is the core

The ability for other parties to manipulate that dataThe ability for other parties to manipulate that data

““Living” applications that can be easily adaptedLiving” applications that can be easily adapted

Harnessing the collective experienceHarnessing the collective experience

““The Web as a platform,” independent of user The Web as a platform,” independent of user platformplatform

Primary focus of participation, rather than publishingPrimary focus of participation, rather than publishing

Trusting of users to provide reliable contentTrusting of users to provide reliable content

The Big Ideas of the The Big Ideas of the Semantic Web (1/3)Semantic Web (1/3)

Information has “machine processable” and Information has “machine processable” and “machine-understandable” semantics“machine-understandable” semantics

Can be built upon the framework of the Can be built upon the framework of the existing Web technologyexisting Web technology

Ontologies are the basic building block of a Ontologies are the basic building block of a semantic Websemantic Web

WWWURI, HTML, HTTP

Bringing the computer Bringing the computer back as a device for back as a device for computationcomputation

Semantic WebRDF, RDF(S), OWL

DynamicWeb ServicesUDDI, WSDL, SOAP

Static


WWWURI, HTML, HTTP

Bringing the Web to its full potentialBringing the Web to its full potential

Semantic WebRDF, RDF(S), OWL

Dynamic Web ServicesUDDI, WSDL, SOAP

Static

Semantic WebServices


Are We Ignoring the Are We Ignoring the Lessons From the Past?Lessons From the Past?

By trying to shape the future of the Web By trying to shape the future of the Web with technologies that seem to be relevant?with technologies that seem to be relevant?

By losing track of the Web as an evolving By losing track of the Web as an evolving natural system?natural system?

Thank You!

Questions? Comments?

[email protected]

“Lessons From the Web” Tsinghua University, Beijing April 2008 Bebo White...

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