Lessons from the North Korean Nuclear Issue by Gregory F. Treverton

8/3/2019 Lessons from the North Korean Nuclear Issue by Gregory F. Treverton

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HGE\BE\X

^pbadhb % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % qmm

R%X%)PGO Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex

X|pd|bkmh D`delgeibe|6 Dccmdehb Pbcd|mgex me Egp|jbdx| Dxmd me |jb ^gx|)Mpdt Bpd

Ldembc Xebmlbp% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 4

Ogpbdx Lgibx|mh @dxb agp Dccmdehb {m|j |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx

Cbb Xggo)Fgek % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 08

R%X%)PGO Bhgegimh Pbcd|mgex

Mxxrbx me R%X%)PGO Bhgegimh Pbcd|mgex

Ogvg Om}g|d del Pg`bp| X|bpe % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


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\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex :=

CBXXGEX APGI \JB EGP\J OGPBDE

ERHCBDP MXXRB

Kpbkgp} A% \pbqbp|ge&

HGE\BE\X

M% Me|pglrh|mge

MM% Cmim|x ga Imcm|dp} G~|mgex

MMM% Trbx|mge ga Xdeh|mgex

MQ% X|gg~mek |g Relbpx|delmek % % % del Hdppg|x

Q% Mehbe|mqbx del Erhcbdp Pbkmibx

QM% Cmqmek {m|j |jb Re|jmeod`cb

&Kpbkgp} A% \pbqbp|ge mx lmpbh|gp ga |jb PDEL Hgp~gpd|mgex Hbe|bp agp Kcg`dc

Pmxo del Xbhrpm|}% Jb xbpqbl me kgqbpeibe| ge |jb Xbed|b Xbcbh| Hgiim||bb ge

Me|bccmkbehb# |jb Ed|mgedc Xbhrpm|} Hgrehmc# del |jb Ed|mgedc Me|bccmkbehb Hgrehmc%


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= > R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

M% Me|pglrh|mge

\jb {gpcl hde gec} jg~b |jb pbhbe| R%X%)Egp|j Ogpbde `mcd|bpdc lmxhrxxmgex {mcc

pbqmqb |jb xmz)~g{bp |dcox del cbdl |g }gek}dekx pberehmd|mge ga m|x erhcbdp {bd~gex

di`m|mgex% Jg~b# jg{bqbp# mx eg| ~gcmh}# del pbhbe| bqbe|x pbxbi`cb |jb gcl cmeb d`gr|

Xgqmb| hgiiremxi dx |jb cgek jdpl xcgk apgi hd~m|dcmxi |g hd~m|dcmxi% Me |jmx hdxb#

irhj ga |jb ~dx| xmz }bdpx xbbix d cgek# |gp|rpbl idphj apgi lmpbh| R%X%)Egp|j

Ogpbde lmxhrxxmgex |g % % % lmpbh| R%X%)Egp|j Ogpbde lmxhrxxmgex% Agp dcc |jb jg~b# d

`b||mek ~bpxge {grcl eg| x|dob |jb pdehj |jd| |jb ebdp ar|rpb {mcc xbb de bel |g Egp|j

Ogpbde erhcbdp {bd~gex g~|mgex%

^dp| ga |jb pbdxge {j} mx |jd| erhcbdp g~|mgex hde hgqbp d irc|m|rlb ga xmex% Igx|

miiblmd|bc}# Egp|j Ogpbd xbbibl |g dkpbb |g lmxide|cb ~pglrh|mge adhmcm|mbx r| eg|

lbx|pg} bzmx|mek {bd~gex *LGX 0>>;-% Igpb kbebpdcc}# |jb hrppbe| me|bped|mgedc

d~~pgdhj ~bpim|x# qmp|rdcc} behgrpdkbx# x|d|bx |g kg pmkj| |g |jb pmeo ga erhcbdp {bd~gex

xg cgek dx |jbmp dh|mqm|mbx dpb lbhcdpbl |g del ghhdxmgedcc} qmxm|bl `} me|bped|mgedc

mex~bh|gpx% \jd| mx d xjgp|hgimek ga cgek x|delmek r| geb |jd| ~gcmh} hgrcl dllpbxx

dcc |jb igpb xg dx jmkj bebpk} ~pmhbx pbqmqb me|bpbx| me erhcbdp ~g{bp% \jd| cbxxge

mx geb digek xbqbpdc |jmx ~d~bp dllpbxxbx# me d x~bhrcd|mqb adxjmge% M|x dmi mx |g cbdpe

cbxxgex apgi gp `b pbmeagphbl `} |jb Egp|j Ogpbd hdxb agp |jb ~rp~gxbx ga ar|rpb

~gcmh}# bx~bhmdcc} {m|j pbkdpl |g Mpde%

\jmx ~d~bp bkmex {m|j imcm|dp} g~|mgex~pbqbe|mge del ~pbbi~|mge% \jbe m| |rpex |g|jb lm~cgid|mh |pdho {jbpb m| cggox ampx| d| ebkd|mqb xdeh|mgex# bhgegimh del ~gcm|mhdc%

]b| jdqmek bzjdrx|bl g|jbp g~|mgex# |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx |rpebl me |jb 4==>x |g ~gxm|mqb

mehbe|mqbx bqbe {m|j pbkdpl |g d pbkmib dx glmgrx dx Egp|j Ogpbdx% \jb ~d~bp |jbe

pbjbdpxbx |jb ~bpqbpxb mehbe|mqbx d| ~cd} me {jd| pbidmex ga ege~pgcmabpd|mge ~gcmh}%

Amedcc}# m| dxox d`gr| |jb hgexbtrbehbx ga admcrpb6 [jd| {mcc cmqmek {m|j eb{ erhcbdp

~g{bpx ibde7

MM% Cmim|x ga Imcm|dp} G~|mgex

M| mx jdpl |g pbhdcc eg{# `r| `bagpb |jb Mpdt lb`dhcb d @rxj lgh|pmeb ga ed|mgedc

xbhrpm|} {dx bibpkmek# geb |jd| {dx x|reemek me m|x di`m|mge% \jd| lgh|pmeb {dx

de|mhm~d|gp}# ~pbbi~|mqb# del remcd|bpdc ma ebbl `b% M| aghrxbl ge |bppgpmxi del ge

{bd~gex ga idxx lbx|prh|mge *[IL-% ]b|# apgi |jb x|dp| m| {dx blbqmcbl d| m|x hgpb

`} cbkm|midh} del hd~dhm|}# hpm|mhdcc} mehcrlmek |jb hd~d`mcm|} ga R%X% me|bccmkbehb%

Dc|jgrkj |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx jdx ~cbe|} ga imcm|dp} ~g{bp |g |dob gr| {jmhjbqbp imxhpbde|

x|d|b m| hjggxbx# agp dcc |jb |bhjemhdc {mvdplp} ga m|x me|bccmkbehb m| x|mcc cdhox |jb d`mcm|}

|g cghd|b del |dpkb| [IL ~pbbi~|mqbc} {m|j ~pbhmxmge% Melbbl# lb|bpimemek {jb|jbpd ~g|be|mdc dlqbpxdp} xrhj dx Egp|j Ogpbd gp Mpde mx bqbe lbqbcg~mek del lb~cg}mek


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\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex =4

erhcbdp# hjbimhdc# del mgcgkmhdc {bd~gex {mcc hge|merb |g ~pgqb lmaamhrc|% \domek gr| d

agbx pbdcgp xrx~bh|bl[IL mx cmobc} |g hge|merb |g pbtrmpb |domek gr| |jb agb%

Me jmx 0>>0 ed|mgedc xbhrpm|} x|pd|bk}# |jb ~pbxmlbe| {dx bz~cmhm| d`gr| dh|mek ampx|

*[jm|b Jgrxb 0>>0# 4>8 *@rxj

0>>8d-6 [b {mcc ibb| |jd| |jpbd| eg{# {m|j grp Dpi}# Dmp Agphb# Edq}# Hgdx| Krdpl

del Idpmebx# xg |jd| {b lg eg| jdqb |g ibb| m| cd|bp {m|j dpimbx ga ampb amkj|bpx del

~gcmhb del lgh|gpx ge |jb x|pbb|x ga grp hm|mbx% Jb jdl agpbxjdlg{bl |jb eb{ x|pd|bk}

me jmx x~bbhj d| [bx| gme| me Freb 0>>0 *@rxj 0>>0-6 @} hgeapge|mek bqmc del cd{cbxx

pbkmibx# {b lg eg| hpbd|b d ~pg`cbi# {b pbqbdc d ~pg`cbi% Del {b {mcc cbdl |jb

{gpcl me g~~gxmek m| _xmhY%

Me idomek m|x hdxb agp {dp# |jb dlimemx|pd|mge lml eg| ~gme| |g d x~bhmamh xb| ga

lb~cg}ibe|x gp |jpbd|x |jd| {grcl jdqb hgex|m|r|bl |jb kpgrelx agp de|mhm~d|gp} xbca)

lbabexb relbp me|bped|mgedc cd{% Mex|bdl# |jb dlimemx|pd|mge dpkrbl |jd|# kmqbe m|x

ed|rpb# Mpdt {grcl ~gxb d |jpbd| |g me|bped|mgedc ~bdhb ma m| hdib |g ~gxxbxx [IL%

Dx @rxj xdml me jmx 0>>8 X|d|b ga |jb Remge dllpbxx *@rxj 0>>8` _bi~jdxmx dllblY-#

\jb kpdqbx| ldekbp adhmek Dibpmhd del |jb {gpcl mx gr|cd{ pbkmibx |jd| xbbo del

~gxxbxx erhcbdp# hjbimhdc# del mgcgkmhdc {bd~gex%

Me g|jbp {gplx# lbighpd|mh Apdehb imkj| b |prx|bl {m|j erhcbdp {bd~gex# r| Xdlldi

Jrxxbme xrpbc} hgrcl eg|% Xdlldi hgrcl eg| b lb|bppbl {m|j de} hbp|dme|}% Egp hgrcl

Xdlldi b |prx|bl eg| |g |pdexabp {bd~gex |g g|jbp pgkrb x|d|bx gp |bppgpmx| kpgr~x#

bqbe |jgrkj |jb bqmlbehb hgeebh|mek Xdlldi Jrxxbme |g |bppgpmxi {dx {bdo d| bx|%

\jrx# jb jdl |g `b lbembl dhhbxx |g |jbi% Me @rxjx {gplx *@rxj 0>>4-6 [b irx|

{gpo |gkb|jbp {m|j g|jbp cmob)imelbl ed|mgex |g lbe} {bd~gex ga |bppgp apgi |jgxb

xbbomek |g dhtrmpb |jbi% \jb {gplx ga |jb ld} d~~cmbl |g Xdlldi# r| |jb cgkmh {dx

|jb xdib agp Omi Fgek)mc del Idjigrl Djidlmebfdl%

[jmcb ibb|mek |jb [IL |jpbd| eg{# {m|j grp Dpi}# Dmp Agphb# Edq}# Hgdx| Krdpl

del Idpmebx# xg |jd| {b lg eg| jdqb |g ibb| m| cd|bp {m|j dpimbx ga ampb amkj|bpx del

~gcmhb del lgh|gpx ge |jb x|pbb|x ga grp hm|mbx {dx cgkmhdc# |jb |jbe bibpkmek @rxj

lgh|pmeb ga ~pbbi~|mge gp ~pbqbe|mqb {dp ~cdhbx x|pbxxbx ge me|bccmkbehb |jd| m| hgrcl

eg| bdp |jbe del hdeeg| bdp eg{%

Dibpmhdx hd~dhm|} agp MXPme|bccmkbehb# xrpqbmccdehb# del pbhgeedmxxdehbmx

re~dpdccbcbl# me d hcdxx } m|xbca me |jb {gpcl% M| mx dcxg mi~pgqmek pd~mlc}% Jg{bqbp# m|xxjgp|hgimekx dpb qmp|rdc lbxhpm~|mgex ga abd|rpbx ga agbx [IL ~pgkpdix% Bzmx|mek


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me|bccmkbehb *gp JRIME\-agp mex|dehb# lbabh|gp pb~gp|x gp me|bpqmb{x {m|j pbhbe|c}

hd~|rpbl Mpdtmx%

\jpgrkjgr| |jb Mpdt [dp# |jb hgiiremhd|mge ~pg`cbix |jd| jdl jdi~bpbl R%X%

g~bpd|mgex me bdpcmbp hgeacmh|x# mehcrlmek Dakjdemx|de# jdqb bbe irhj cbxx me bqmlbehb%

\jbpb jdx bbe irhj b||bp me|bccmkbehb hggplmed|mge b|{bbe kpgrel del dmp agphbx#

bed`cmek dmp x|pmobx dkdmex| bebi} kpgrel agphbx {m|j ab{bp hdxrdc|mbx |g apmbelc}

agphbx *GPgrpob 0>>8# 2=1>-% Me |jb agk ga {dp# R%X% agphbx ghhdxmgedcc} jdqb

`bbe xrp~pmxbl del xgib|mibx idlb imx|dobx# `r| R%X% me|bccmkbehb cb| |jbi cbdpe

{jbpb bebimbx {bpb del |dpkb| |jbi {m|j ~pbhmxmge {bd~gex |g d lbkpbb

re~pbhblbe|bl me |jb deedcx ga {dpadpb%

X|mcc# agp dcc |jb ~gcm|mhdc lb`d|b gqbp me|bccmkbehb me |jb pre)r~ |g |jb Mpdt {dpbx~bhmdcc}

|jb meadigrx Gh|g`bp 0>>0 bx|mid|b hgeamlbe|c} hgehcrlmek |jd| Mpdt lml jdqb [IL

m| {dx ~cdme |jd| R%X% me|bccmkbehb {dx adp apgi kggl begrkj |g mlbe|ma}# cb| dcgeb

|dpkb|# x~bhmamh Mpdtm `mgcgkmhdc# hjbimhdc# gp erhcbdp {bd~gex {m|j de} ~pbhmxmge

*Hgiimxxmge 0>>2? @r|cbp 0>>>8-%

Del me ide} pbx~bh|x Mpdt {dx d hgeqbembe| hdxb# ma eg| de bdx} geb% Eg| gec} jdl

|jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del m|x me|bccmkbehb dkbehmbx bbe {gpomek ge |jb hgre|p} xgcmlc} agp

igpb |jde d lbhdlb# m| dcxg jdl bdpcmbp bbe Mpdtx dcc} lrpmek |jb {dp {m|j Mpde% Mpdtx~pgimebehb digek R%X% ed|mgedc xbhrpm|} hgehbpex bexrpbl pbkrcdp hgccbh|mge ga dcc

omelx dkdmex| Mpdtm |dpkb|x# del R%X% dedc}xmx jdl d hgex|deh} del lb~|j lrpmek |jd|

lbhdlb |jd| lmx|mekrmxjbl Mpdt apgi ide} g|jbp |g~mhx% Igpbgqbp# dc|jgrkj |jb RE

{bd~gex mex~bh|gpx *Rem|bl Ed|mgex X~bhmdc Hgiimxxmge gp REXHGI- cba| Mpdt me

4==:# |jbmp }bdpx ga {gpo ~pgqmlbl d| cbdx| xgib `dxbcmeb agp cd|bp baagp|x `} |jb

Rem|bl Ed|mgex Igem|gpmek# Qbpmamhd|mge del Mex~bh|mge Hgiimxxmge# gp REIGQMH%

Ogpbd {dx d jdplbp hdxb agp |jb {grcl)`b ~pbbi~|gp% Dx geb mccrx|pd|mge# R%X%

me|bccmkbehb jdx frlkbl xmehb |jb iml)4==>x |jd| Egp|j Ogpbd jdl begrkj ~cr|gemri|g `rmcl geb gp |{g jmllbe erhcbdp {bd~gex *EMH 0>>4-% @r| m| jdx jdl cm||cb mlbd

{jbpb |jgxb {bd~gex# ma |jb} bzmx|# imkj| b cghd|bl me Egp|j Ogpbdx idpbx ebx| ga

relbpkpgrel |reebcx% \jb pbhrppmek Egp|j Ogpbde hpmxbx dcxg xbpqb dx d pbimelbp ga

jg{ jdpl m| mx agp me|bccmkbehb |g oeg{ ga# cb| dcgeb cghd|b# del x|mcc cbxx |dpkb| mehm~mbe|

[IL ~pgkpdix% Lrpmek |jb xriibp ga 0>>0# R%X% me|bccmkbehb hgehcrlbl |jd|# me

dllm|mge |g m|x oeg{e ~cr|gemri adhmcm|mbx# Egp|j Ogpbd {dx g~bpd|mek d hgqbp| rpdemri

bepmhjibe| ~pgkpdi% \jb ~pgkpdi d~~dpbe|c} `bkde me |jb cd|b 4==>x# `r| R%X%

me|bccmkbehb gec} hgeampibl m|x bzmx|behb |jpgrkj dh|mqm|mbx lrpmek 0>>4# mehcrlmek

bz|bexmqb Egp|j Ogpbde ~rphjdxbx ga id|bpmdcx agp hgex|prh|mge ga d kdx)hbe|pmarkbbepmhjibe| adhmcm|}% \jb Hbe|pdc Me|bccmkbehb Dkbeh} *HMD 0>>0- hge|belbl me


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= < R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

Egqbi`bp 0>>0 |jd| |jb adhmcm|} {dx d| cbdx| |jpbb }bdpx apgi bhgimek g~bpd|mgedc#

`r| dedc}x|x bcmbqbl |jd| d hgi~cb|bl adhmcm|} hgrcl rc|mid|bc} ~pglrhb xraamhmbe| amxxmcb

id|bpmdc agp |{g gp igpb erhcbdp {bd~gex ~bp }bdp%

Xjbbp eri`bpx del {dpemek |mib hgi~grel |jb ~pg`cbi ga lbx|pg}mek Egp|j Ogpbdx

[IL% Agp lbcmqbp} qbjmhcbx# Egp|j Ogpbd jdx de bx|mid|bl 40#>>> dp|mccbp} |r`bx del

0#8>> irc|m~cb pghob| cdrehjbpx |jd|# apgi |jbmp hrppbe| bi~cdhbibe|x# dpb hd~d`cb ga

pdmemek 2>>#>>> xjbccx ~bp jgrp ge R%X% del Xgr|j Ogpbde |pgg~x% Amqb jrelpbl cgek)

pdekb dp|mccbp} ~mbhbx dpb d`cb |g |dpkb| Xbgrc# {jmhj mx gec} d`gr| 0> imcbx apgi |jb

lbimcm|dpmvbl vgeb *LIV- xb~dpd|mek Egp|j del Xgr|j Ogpbd *X|decb} 0>>8-%

@} geb bx|mid|b# irhj ga Egp|j Ogpbdx agp{dpl)`dxbl agphb mx ~pg|bh|bl } igpb

|jde >> relbpkpgrel adhmcm|mbx me |jb agp{dpl dpbd dcgeb# mehcrlmek |reebcx relbp

|jb LIV |g pd~mlc} mexbp| agphbx bjmel |jb lbabelbpx% [dpemek |mibx agp |jb Rem|bl

X|d|bx del Xgr|j Ogpbd {grcl b xjgp|0< jgrpx gp cbxxma Egp|j Ogpbd meqdlbl

apgi |jmx agp{dpl)cbdemek ~gx|rpb%

Eg| xrp~pmxmekc}# jmx|gp} mx dcxg hdr|mgedp} me cbxxgex d`gr| ~pbbi~|mge% \jb idfgp

erhcbdp hpmxmx ge |jb Ogpbde ~bemexrcd bpr~|bl me 4==8 {jbe Egp|j Ogpbd {dx hdrkj|

bz|pdh|mek gi`)idomek ~cr|gemri apgi x~be| pbdh|gp arbc apgi m|x amqb)ibkd{d||

pbxbdphj pbdh|gp d| ]gek`}ge% \jb Rem|bl X|d|bx hdib hcgxb |g {dp# del |jbpb {dx

irhj |dco me [dxjmek|ge del Xbgrc d`gr| xrpkmhdc x|pmobx dkdmex| |jbxb erhcbdp

adhmcm|mbx% Me |jb bel# |jb Hcme|ge dlimemx|pd|mge |ggo |jb ~d|j ga ebkg|md|mge% Kmqbe |jb~pgzmim|} ga |jb Egp|j del m|x {bd~gep}# |jb lbd|j |gcc apgi {dp hgrcl jdqb pre me|g

|jb jrelpblx ga |jgrxdelx# {m|j cdpkb)xhdcb hdxrdc|mbx digek |jb 8;#>>> R%X% KMx

x|d|mgebl me Xgr|j Ogpbd% \jb bqbe|rdc pbxrc| {dx |jb Dkpbbl Apdib{gpo ga 4==>0% Del mex~bh|gpx {mcc dcigx| dc{d}x `b |gg ab{ me eri`bp del |gg

cmim|bl me |jbmp d`mcm|} |g hgelrh| xrp~pmxb mex~bh|mgex de}{jbpb me d hgre|p}%

REXHGIx }bdpx ga mex~bh|mgex me Mpdt me |jb 4==>x {bpb d hd|)del)igrxb kdib ga

Mpdtm pbx|pmh|mgex del REXHGI ~rxjmek dkdmex| |jgxb pbx|pmh|mgex%


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Dhhgplmek |g geb dedc}x| *Xgogcxom 0>>0-# m| {grcl eg| b ~gxxm`cb |g qbpma} d Egp|j

Ogpbde hgiim|ibe| |g apbbvb gp lmxide|cb m|x rpdemri ~pgkpdi% Mex|bdl ga preemek

8#>>> hbe|pmarkbx d| geb xm|b |g ~pglrhb xbqbpdc gi`x {gp|j ga rpdemri ~bp }bdp#

kpgr~x ga hbe|pmarkbx hgrcl b jmllbe me xgib ga |jb hgre|p}x |jgrxdelx ga hdqbx

~pbhmxbc} |jb abdp me |jb hdxb ga Mpde% Recmob Egp|j Ogpbdx lbhcdpbl ~cr|gemri

~pglrh|mge adhmcm|mbx# {jgxb cghd|mgex dpb oeg{e del {jgxb g~bpd|mge hde b lb|bh|bl

`} xd|bccm|b# irhj ga Egp|j Ogpbdx rpdemri bepmhjibe| ~pgkpdi d~~bdpx |g b gr| ga

xmkj| d| melb|bpimed|b relbpkpgrel cghd|mgex% [m|j hbe|pmarkb bepmhjibe| |bhjegcgk}#

|jbpb mx irhj cbxx ebbl |g hbe|pdcmvb ~pglrh|mge d| d xmekcb xm|b |jde mx |jb hdxb agp

~cr|gemri ~pglrh|mge# xg hjbhomek id|bpmdcx dkdmex| xgib xmekcb idemabx| mx eg| ~gxxm`cb%

]b| |jb hge|pdx| ga |jb |{g hgre|pmbx dcxg xrkkbx|x |jb qdcrb ga ge)xm|b mex~bh|mge%

\jbpb {bpb ab{ dxbcmeb ld|d ge }gek}dekx erhcbdp dh|mqm|mbx% Me hge|pdx|# dc|jgrkj

|jb REXHGI mex~bh|gpx {bpb jdpdxxbl# |jb} lml ade gr| dhpgxx Mpdt agp xbqbe

}bdpx# apgi c==4 |jpgrkj c==:# qmxm|mek g|j lbhcdpbl del relbhcdpbl xm|bx% \jb MDBD

dcxg idedkbl |g cghd|b |jb bcbibe|x ga Mpdex erhcbdp ~pgkpdi# dc`bm| gec} da|bp de

Mpdemde lmxxmlbe| kpgr~ lmxhcgxbl |jb bzmx|behb ga xgib ga |jb pbkmibx xbhpb| adhmcm|mbx%

Me hge|pdx|# MDBD mex~bh|gpx hgelrh|bl gec} geb pgr|meb mex~bh|mge ga Egp|j Ogpbdx

lbhcdpbl erhcbdp adhmcm|mbx# del |jd| {dx 4> }bdpx dkg% Mpdt dcxg xrkkbx|x |jb qdcrb ga

hgg~bpd|mge b|{bbe me|bped|mgedc mex~bh|gpx del ed|mgedc me|bccmkbehb {jbe |jd| mx

~gxxm`cb *Hdppmek|ge 0>>8-% Dx |jb ~pgx~bh| ga {dp cggibl# |jb bdpcmbp xbexm|mqm|mbx

d`gr| meagpid|mge xjdpmek b|{bbe R%X% me|bccmkbehb del d RE gl}# REIGQMH#

lmimemxjbl% R%X% R)0x dcgek {m|j g|jbp dccmbl dmphpda| bkde ac}mek pbhgeedmxxdehb agpREIGQMH# kmqmek |jb mex~bh|gpx irhj igpb hd~dhm|} |g xbb lbqbcg~ibe|x d|

xrx~bh|bl adhmcm|mbx gqbp |mib%

G|jbp hmphrix|dehbx eg lgr`| {mcc hmphrixhpm`b jg{ hcgxbc} R%X% me|bccmkbehb hde

hgg~bpd|b {m|j me|bped|mgedc mex~bh|gpx# r| Mpdt lpmqbx jgib |jb lbxmpd`mcm|} ga lgmek

xg {jbe m| mx ~gxxm`cb% Ma |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx hge|bi~cd|bx ~pbqbe|mqb gp ~pbbi~|mqb

dh|mge# me ~pmehm~cb m| {mcc {de| |jb {mlbx| ~gxxm`cb me|bped|mgedc xr~~gp| del dr|jgpmvd|mge

agp lgmek xg% ]b|# dx Mpdt lbigex|pd|bl# |jd| mx ~pbhmxbc} {jd| m| hdeeg| kb|% \jb

~pg`cbi dpmxbx eg| apgi |jb abhocbxxebxx ga |jb RE r| pd|jbp apgi dxomek ed|mgex |g|dob jdpl# ~g|be|mdcc} ldekbpgrx lbhmxmgex d`gr| lbdcmek {m|j |jpbd|x |jd| jdqb eg| }b|

ghhrppbl del {jgxb miimebehb mx d id||bp ga frlkibe|%

Me |jgxb hmphrix|dehbx# |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx {mcc {de| |g idob |jb `bx| hdxb m| hde%

Mlbdcc}# m| {mcc {de| de Dlcdm X|bqbexge igibe|# da|bp |jb |mib me 4=10 {jbe |jb

R%X% di`dxxdlgp |g |jb RE pdelmxjbl mehge|pgqbp|m`cb midkbx ga Xgqmb| imxxmcb dxbx

me Hr`d~jg|gkpd~jbl apgi d R)0 x~} ~cdeb% G|jbp{mxb# bqbe ma me|bccmkbehb mx kggl

begrkj |g relbp|dob |jb imcm|dp} ~pbbi~|mge# |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx {mcc pre |jb pmxo ga

cggomek cmob d rcc}# {m|j prcbx agp g|jbpx r| egeb agp m|xbca%


10/29

= 1 R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

MMM% Trbx|mge ga Xdeh|mgex

Ma imcm|dp} ~pbbi~|mge mx re~pgimxmek# {jd| d`gr| |jb ebz| x|b~ lg{e |jb cbqbc ga

hgbphmgexdeh|mgex# `g|j bhgegimh del ~gcm|mhdc% D| ampx| `crxj# |jb ~pgx~bh| ga

bhgegimh ~remxjibe| {grcl eg| xbbi d ~pgimxmek mex|pribe| agp Egp|j Ogpbd# d

hgre|p} |jd| {dx ~pb~dpbl |g cb| d imccmge ga m|x ~bg~cb x|dpqb |g lbd|j%0 Melbbl# |jb

cm|bpd|rpb mx hdr|mgedp} ge |jb hmphrix|dehbx me {jmhj xdeh|mgex hde {gpo *Jra`drbp#

Xhjg||# del Bccmg|| 4==>-% \g jdqb irhj bhgegimh baabh|# |jb hgre|p} bmek xdeh|mgebl

irx| b qrcebpd`cb# |jb x|dobx me |jb hgre|pmbx ga |jgxb mi~gxmek |jb xdeh|mgex pbcd|mqbc}

{bdo# bx~bhmdcc} me bhgegimh |bpix# del |jb xdeh|mgex pbcd|mqbc} cbdo~pgga% Bqbe me

|jgxb hmphrix|dehbx# |jb bhgegimh baabh| {mcc hdxhdlb |jpgrkj lgibx|mh ~gcm|mhx del

xg {mcc |dob |mib |g jdqb de baabh|? me |jb xjgp| del iblmri |bpi |jbpb mx {jd| imkj|

`b hdccbl |jb Imcgbqmh baabh|# da|bp Xcg`glde Imcgbqmh# |jb ~pbxmlbe| ga Xbp`md

*del ga ]rkgxcdqmd bagpb |jd|-% Xbpqmek me |jb kgqbpeibe| lrpmek |jb @dcode {dpx ga

|jb 4==>x# M jdl |jb lr`mgrx g~~gp|rem|} |g qmxm| @bckpdlb% M xgrkj| |g ibb| {m|j |jb

g~~gxm|mge# de dp|mhrcd|b del d||pdh|mqb kpgr~% @r| me |jb adhb ga jgx|mcm|} apgi |jb

Rem|bl X|d|bx del ED\G# de} g~be g~~gxm|mge |g Imcgbqmh {dx xmi~c} re~d|pmg|mh%

\jb baabh|mqb g~~gxm|mge jdl ibc|bl d{d}%

Agp g|jbp cbdlbpx# |gg# |jb jgx|mcm|} ga |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del m|x ~dp|ebpx mx |jb `bx|

|jmek |jb} jdqb kgmek agp |jbi% \jb Rem|bl X|d|bx mx igpb rxbarc dx d gkb}ide |jde

d apmbel% Amlbc Hdx|pg jdx idlb de be|mpb cmab dx Hr`de cbdlbp gr| ga R%X% jgx|mcm|}#

{jmhj mx |jb `gkb} agp de} lgibx|mh ~pmqd|mge gp imxidedkbibe|% Me |jbxbhmphrix|dehbx# |jb hjdehbx |jd| bhgegimh xdeh|mgex# bqbe ma |jb} m|b bhgegimhdcc}#

{mcc jdqb |jb lbxmpbl ~gcm|mhdc baabh|x dpb ~dpcgrx% Geb hcgxb g`xbpqbp ga xdeh|mgex

dkdmex| |jb pbdod{d} x|d|b ga Pjglbxmd me |jb 4=1>x del 4=;>x bi~jdxmvbl |jb cgek)

|bpi ed|rpb ga xdeh|mgex6 Xdeh|mgex dcgeb lml eg| pmek Pjglbxmd |g |jb ebkg|md|mek

|d`cb% @r| xdeh|mgex {bdobebl Pjglbxmd# hdrxmek m| |g g~be mebaamhmbe| melrx|pmbx? |g

~d} imllcb ibe bzgp`m|de| ~pgam|x agp mi~gp|x {jmcb pbhbmqmek cg{ ~d}ibe|x agp bz~gp|x?

del |g pmxo xbpmgrx xjgp|dkbx ga x~dpb ~dp|x *IhJbep} 4=::# 48-%

\jb belmek ga |jb d~dp|jbml pbkmib me Xgr|j Dapmhd mx ga|be xbbe dx d xrhhbxx gaxdeh|mgex# del xg m| mx# dc|jgrkj bqbe |jd| ~gme| mx lb`d|bl% Egeb ga |jb ~g|be|mdc

bi`dpkgbpx# {m|j |jb ~dp|mdc bzhb~|mge ga @pm|dme# jdl d xr`x|de|mdc bhgegimh x|dob me

Xgr|j Dapmhd# del Xgr|j Dapmhd ebblbl |jb mehgib apgi ed|rpdc pbxgrphb bz~gp|x |g

|jgxb hgre|pmbx d| cbdx| dx irhj dx |jgxb hgre|pmbx ebblbl |jb mi~gp|x% \jgxb bhgegimh

adh|x bhdib ~cdmec} qmxm`cb {jbe |jb mk x|d|b ~bexmge arelx# cmob Hdcmagpemdx# x|dp|bl

`bmek pbhprm|bl |g |jb lmqbx|ibe| dkbeld% \jb |dpkb| hgi~dembx trmhoc} pbdcmvbl |jb}

jdl igpb ga d x|dob me xbqbpdc cghox ga lg{e|g{e Cgx Dekbcbx |jde me dcc ga Xgr|j

Dapmhd%

0% Agp d |jgrkj|arc lmxhrxxmge ga |jb baabh| ga x|mhox# me g|jbp {gplx# xdeh|mgex# xbb Apdeo *0>>1-


11/29

\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex =;

Me |jb bel# |jgrkj# |jb ~gcm|mhdc dx~bh| ga xdeh|mgex id} jdqb bbe igpb mi~gp|de|

|jde |jb bhgegimh% [jm|b Xgr|j Dapmhdex {de|bl |g b apmbelx ga |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx

del m|x dccmbx? |jb} {de|bl |g b dhhb~|bl% \jb} {bpb |jb g~~gxm|b ga Imcgbqmhgp

ga Hdx|pg% Agp |jbi# igeb} {dx mi~gp|de| r| prk`} {dx mi~bpd|mqb% \jb mlbd |jd|

|jbmp bcgqbl ed|mgedc prk`} |bdi {grcl b lbembl dhhbxx |g me|bped|mgedc hgi~b|m|mge

{dx re|jmeod`cb%

[jd| d`gr| Mpde dx d |dpkb| ga xdeh|mgex7 Mpdt hgrcl b xbbe dx d jg~barc ~pbhblbe|

*Jra`drbp del Xhjg|| 0>>1-% M| mx d| cbdx| dpkrd`cb |jd| bhgegimh jdplxjm~ hjdekbl

Xdlldi Jrxxbmex ~pmgpm|mbx% Dx Jra`drbp del Xhjg|| ~r| m|6 Me |jb hprehj# ~dcdhbx

del ~gcmhb {bpb igpb mi~gp|de| |jde [IL% @b|{bbe |jb ampx| del xbhgel Krca

{dpx# Xdlldi d~~dpbe|c} kdqb r~ gp ~gx|~gebl jmx trbx| agp [IL# mehcrlmek erhcbdp

{bd~gex% M| mx hgehbmqd`cb |jd| xr`gplmed|bx |ggo |jd| lbhmxmge agp jmi# |jbe lbhbmqbl

jmi ge |jd| xhgpb# r| m| mx igpb cmobc} |jd|# jdqmek hjdekbl jmx ~pmgpm|mbx relbp ~pbxxrpb#

Xdlldi bm|jbp hgehgh|bl gp |gcbpd|bl d idxxmqb lbhb~|mge |g hgeqmehb |jb {gpcl# del

eg| cbdx| |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx# |jd| jb jdl {jd| jb lmle| jdqb%

\jb xdeh|mgex {bpb |grkj# digek |jb jdpxjbx| ga |jb cdx| hbe|rp} lbx~m|b bz|bexmqb

gmc xirkkcmek {m|j |jb hgi~cmhm|} ga Fgplde# \rpob}# del Mpde del lbx~m|b {mlbx~pbdl

hgppr~|mge relbp RE drx~mhbx% \jb idfgp ~g{bpx# bqbe mehcrlmek Hjmed# Fd~de# del

Prxxmd# kbebpdcc} pbx~bh|bl |jb RE pbxgcr|mgex% Mpdtx agpbmke bzhjdekb {dx xjdp~c}

hrp|dmcbl# del xg~jmx|mhd|bl {bd~gex {bpb xjbcqbl% \jb xdeh|mgex lmxpr~|bl Mpdtx

dcpbdl} x|ri`cmek bhgegi}# del# dx rxrdc# |jb qmh|mix {bpb eg| Xdlldix bcm|b r|pd|jbp |jb xbkibe|x ga |jb Mpdt ~g~rcd|mge dcpbdl} xraabpmek relbp @dkjldlx prcb%

Jd~~mc}# xmehb |jb xdeh|mgex hgmehmlbl {m|j cg{ gmc ~pmhbx# |jb xdeh|mgebpx abc| cm||cb

bhgegimh ~dmed adh| hprhmdc |g kcg`dc hgg~bpd|mge me beagphmek RE xdeh|mgex agp

igpb |jde d lbhdlb%

Xdeh|mgex dkdmex| Mpde hgrcl kg |jb xdib {d} dx agp Mpdt# `r| |jb lmaabpbehbx dpb

{gp|j ~gelbpmek% Cmob Mpdt# |jgxb jrp| } xdeh|mgex {grcl eg| b |jb bcm|b# |jb dpi}# gp

|jb ~gcmhb# r| pd|jbp |jb Mpdemde ~bg~cb% Da|bp lbhdlbx ga dl bhgegimh idedkbibe|relbp |jb hcbpmhdc pbkmib# Mpdemdex dpb ~ggpbp eg{ |jde me |jb 4=;>x% Jdpxj xdeh|mgex

{grcl mehpbdxb igp|dcm|} digek meade|x del |jb bclbpc}% Del |jb} {grcl xrpbc} meqgob

|jb Imcgbqmh baabh|# pbelbpmek de} g~~gxm|mge |g |jb d}d|gccdjx re~d|pmg|mh%

Btrdcc} |g |jb ~gme|# xdeh|mgex jdpxj begrkj |g idob d lmaabpbehb# bqbe gqbp |jb cgek

|bpi# lg eg| xbbi me |jb hdplx% Mpde mx gmc pmhj bqbe {jmcb ~ggp% [m|j gmc ~pmhbx |gld} d|

gp ebdp pbhgpl jmkjx# Brpg~b# Hjmed# del Fd~de dpb eg| d`gr| |g pmxo Mpdemde pb|dcmd|mge

|jd| hgrcl lpmqb |jb {gpcl ~pmhb {bcc d`gqb ,4>> ~bp dppbc del |jb {gpcl bhgegi}

me|g pbhbxxmge% Ide} Dibpmhdex imkj| abbc |jd| {d} |gg% \jb} {mcc belgpxb xdeh|mgex|jd| dpb imcl del x|dkbl# eg| jdpxj% Del {jd|bqbp ~gxm|mge m| |dobx me |jb RE Xbhrpm|}


12/29

= : R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

Hgrehmc# Prxxmd {mcc hge|merb |g hrc|mqd|b \bjpde dx m|x bx| agg|jgcl me |jb Imllcb

Bdx|%

[jd| imkj| {gpo7 Hbp|dmec}# xrx|dmemek x~bhmamh bi`dpkgbx ge hpm|mhdc hgi~gebe|x#

cmob hdxhdlb hbe|pmarkbx# idob xbexb% Dx {m|j Hgcl [dp baagp|x |g lbe} imcm|dp}

|bhjegcgk} |g |jb Xgqmb| Remge del m|x dccmbx# |jmx bi`dpkg mx dcpbdl} me ~pdh|mhb# del m|

xbbix |g jdqb kdmebl |jb hgg~bpd|mge ga Prxxmd del Hjmed% D pbcd|bl |dho mx |g |p} |g

lbe} Mpde |jb {jbpb{m|jdcbm|jbp |bhjemhdc gp amedehmdc|g iglbpemvb m|x gmc melrx|p}%

[m|j |jb {gpclx |jmpl)cdpkbx| gmc pbxbpqbx del xbhgel)cdpkbx| kdx pbxbpqbx# Mpde lgbx

eg| cdho agp mehgib eg{# r| m| dlc} ebblx |g iglbpemvb m|x melrx|p} bqbe |g xrx|dme

hrppbe| cbqbcx ga ~pglrh|mge# cb| dcgeb mehpbdxb |jbi% Hrppbe| |dpkb|bl baagp|x |g lbe}

arelmek gp |bhjegcgk} agp |jd| iglbpemvd|mge dcxg idob xbexb%

\jb baagp| imkj| dmi agp cmim|bl xdeh|mgex |jd| {grcl eg| x~cm| |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del

Brpg~b gp lpmqb Prxxmd# Hjmed# del Fd~de gaa |jb lm~cgid|mh pbxbpqd|mge% \jgxb imkj|

dcxg mehcrlb d g}hg|| ge xjm~ibe|x ga crzrp} kgglx *hdpx# hcg|jbx# dmp hgelm|mgebpx- |g

\bjpde del d apbbvb ge |jb dxxb|x jbcl d`pgdl } Mpdex pbcmkmgrx# hmqmcmde# del imcm|dp}

cbdlbpx del hjdpm|d`cb gpkdemvd|mgex% Xdeh|mgex xjgp| ga Mpdt)x|}cb mxgcd|mge {mcc eg|

lbe} Mpde |jb amedehmdc d`mcm|} |g ~rpxrb erhcbdp {bd~gex% Pd|jbp# |jb kgdc {grcl b |g

lbigex|pd|b frx| jg{ mxgcd|bl |jb pbkmib me \bjpde mx# del |g r} |mib me |jb jg~bx

|jd| ebkg|md|mgex imkj| xrhhbbl gp cbxx jgx|mcb jbdlx hgib |g ~g{bp me Mpde% \jb

x|pd|bk} ga cmim|bl xdeh|mgex# dhhgi~dembl } hggplmed|bl lm~cgidh}# mx |g cb| |mib

ibccg{ \bjpdex erhcbdp me|be|mgex# eg| lbx|pg} m|x hd~d`mcm|mbx% Me |jb ibde|mib# |jbx|pd|bk} xbbox |g dqgml d hpmxmx |jd| |jpg{x |jb {gpcl me|g pbhbxxmge del lbx|pg}x |jb

hgjbxmge ga d apdkmcb dccmdehb eg{ me ~cdhb%

MQ% X|gg~mek |g Relbpx|delmek % % % del Hdppg|x

M| {dx ~pbhmxbc} |jb cdho ga pbdxged`cb imcm|dp}del bhgegimhg~|mgex |jd| mi~bccbl

|jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del m|x dccmbx |g jgcl |jbmp hgccbh|mqb egxbx del |p} *pbcd|mqb- kbebpgxm|}

bqbe {m|j Egp|j Ogpbd% \jb pbxrc| {dx |jb Dkpbbl Apdib{gpo% \jb Hcme|gedlimemx|pd|mgex hpbd|mqm|} {dx gpe ga lbx~bpd|mge% Jdqmek |pmbl bqbp}|jmek r| {dp

|g x|g~ Egp|j Ogpbdx erhcbdp {bd~gex del imxxmcb ~pgkpdidel m| xbpmgrxc}

hge|bi~cd|bl {dp me 4==>8-% M| idlb d lbdc {m|j |jb lbqmc% \jb ~pgqmxmgex ga |jb apdib{gpo

mehcrlbl6

Egp|j Ogpbdx kpd~jm|b)iglbpd|bl erhcbdp ~g{bp ~cde|x# {jmhj hgrcl bdxmc}

~pglrhb {bd~gex)kpdlb ~cr|gemri# {grcl b pb~cdhbl {m|j C[P ~g{bp ~cde|x

`} d |dpkb| ld|b ga 0>>8?


13/29

\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex ==

Gmc agp jbd|mek del bcbh|pmhm|} ~pglrh|mge {grcl b ~pgqmlbl {jmcb |jb Egp|jx

pbdh|gpx {bpb xjr| lg{e# re|mc hgi~cb|mge ga |jb ampx| C[P ~g{bp rem|?

\jb |{g xmlbx {grcl igqb |g{dpl arcc egpidcmvd|mge ga ~gcm|mhdc del bhgegimh

pbcd|mgex?

\jb Rem|bl X|d|bx {grcl ~pgqmlb agpidc dxxrpdehbx |g |jb Egp|j dkdmex| |jb

|jpbd| gp rxb ga erhcbdp {bd~gex } |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx?

Egp|j Ogpbd {grcl |dob x|b~x |g mi~cbibe| |jb 4==0 Fgme| Lbhcdpd|mge ge |jb

Lberhcbdpmvd|mge ga |jb Ogpbde ~bemexrcd?

\jb L^PO {grcl pbidme d ~dp|} |g |jb Ege) pgcmabpd|mge \pbd|} *E^\-?

MDBD dl jgh del pgr|meb mex~bh|mgex {grcl pbxrib agp adhmcm|mbx eg| xr`fbh|

|g |jb apbbvb?

Bzmx|mek x~be| erhcbdp arbc x|ghox {grcl b x|gpbl del rc|mid|bc} lmx~gxbl ga

{m|jgr| pb~pghbxxmek me |jb Egp|j? del

@bagpb lbcmqbp} ga ob} C[P erhcbdp hgi~gebe|x# Egp|j Ogpbd {grcl hgib

me|g arcc hgi~cmdehb {m|j m|x xdabkrdplx dkpbbibe| {m|j |jb MDBD%

D| |jb |mib# me kgqbpeibe| r| eg| {gpomek x~bhmamhdcc} ge Ogpbde mxxrbx# M |jgrkj |jb

apdib{gpo {dx d idx|bpx|pgob me |jb omel ga h}emhdc x|d|bhpda| |jd| {b Dibpmhdex

dpb jdplc} bqbp hd~d`cb ga bzbphmxmek% D| |jd| ~gme|# Egp|j Ogpbd xbbibl hcgxb |g

hgccd~xb# del xg |jb h}emhmxi hgexmx|bl me gaabpmek ~gxm|mqb mehbe|mqbx |jd| |jb Rem|bl

X|d|bx del m|x dccmbx {grcl ebqbp jdqb |g lbcmqbp% Egp|j Ogpbd {grcl hgccd~xb bagpb

|jbe%8

\jb ad|b ga |jb Dkpbbl Apdib{gpo |bx|mambx |g |jb ~gcm|mhdc lmaamhrc|} ga pbcd|mqb

kbebpgxm|} dx d hgre|bp~pgcmabpd|mge ~gcmh} mex|pribe|% \jb |pdqdmcx ga |jb ~dx| ab{}bdpx|jd| cgek idphj apgi mcd|bpdc ebkg|md|mge |g mcd|bpdc ebkg|md|mgejdqb bbe

{bcc hjpgemhcbl del lg eg| ebbl |g b pb|gcl jbpb% \jb mehgimek @rxj dlimemx|pd|mge

pbkdplbl |jb Dkpbbl Apdib{gpo dx d hg~)gr| ma eg| d xbccgr| del ~r| irc|mcd|bpdc

ebkg|md|mgex {m|j Egp|j Ogpbd ge jgclagpidcc} agp gec} d ab{ ige|jx {jmcb m|

pbqmb{bl m|x ~gcmh}% \jb 0>>0 X|d|b ga |jb Remge dllpbxx ~pgimebe|c} mehcrlbl Egp|j

Ogpbd me |jb dzmx ga bqmc# del } 0>>1 R%X% ~gcmh} xbbibl bz~cmhm|c} |{g)|pdho

8% M d||pm`r|b |jmx pbdh|mge gec} |g ib# xrpbc} eg| |g de} ga |jb kggl ~bg~cb me lmpbh| hjdpkb ga R%X% ~gcmh}d| |jd| ~gme|$


14/29

4 >> R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

gaabpmek |g pb|rpe |g irc|mcd|bpdc lmxhrxxmge {m|j Egp|j Ogpbd dcgek geb |pdho# {jmcb#

ge |jb g|jbp# |p}mek |g kd|jbp me|bped|mgedc xr~~gp| agp xdeh|mgex# mehcrlmek bi`dpkgbx#

|jpgrkj |jb pgcmabpd|mge Xbhrpm|} Mem|md|mqb bkre me 0>>8% \jb g~bemek hdib me @bmfmek

me Ab`prdp} 0>>; {jbe ^}gek}dek dkpbbl |g pb|rpe |g |jb xmz)~dp|} |dcox# del |jb

~pgx~bh| {dx idlb igpb pbdc {m|j |jb xrp~pmxb qmxm| ga Dxxmx|de| Xbhpb|dp} ga X|d|b

Hjpmx|g~jbp Jmcc |g }gek}dek me Freb 0>>;%

]gek`}ge# {jmhj jdx `bbe |jb hbe|bp~mbhb ga Egp|j Ogpbdx erhcbdp ~pgkpdi# mx

|jgrkj| |g b hd~d`cb ga |rpemek gr| d~~pgzmid|bc} xmz omcgkpdix ga {bd~gex)kpdlb

~cr|gemri ~bp }bdp% Da|bp relbpkgmek pb~pghbxxmek# |jmx trde|m|} ga ~cr|gemri mx xraamhmbe|

|g idob d xmekcb amxxmge {bd~ge {m|j d }mbcl `b|{bbe 4> del 42 omcg|gex *Emoxhj

0>>2# 4440-% Egp|j Ogpbd mx dcxg xrx~bh|bl ga jdp`gpmek d xbhpb| ~pgkpdi |g ~pglrhb

jmkjc} bepmhjbl rpdemri rxmek hbe|pmarkbx% \jmx meapdx|prh|rpb imkj| b xraamhmbe| agp

~pglrhmek ~bpjd~x |{g gp igpb {bd~gex ~bp }bdp *Emoxhj 0>>2# 4440-% Mpdex erhcbdp

meapdx|prh|rpb# {jmhj dcxg mehgp~gpd|bx d pbdh|gp agp ~pglrhmek ~cr|gemri del de

reoeg{e eri`bp ga hbe|pmarkbx# imkj| b ga d xmimcdp xhdcb *Dc`pmkj| del Jmelbpx|bme

0>>>1 Dxmd)^dhmamh BhgegimhHgg~bpd|mge ibb|mek me Jdegm# pbxmlbe| @rxj del pbxmlbe| Pgj Igg)j}re ga Xgr|j

Ogpbd {bpb g~|mimx|mh d`gr| |jb ~pgx~bh|x agp d ~bdhb pbkmib% Dxxmx|de| Xbhpb|dp}

Jmcc jdx xdml [dxjmek|ge mx pbdl} |g bkme ebkg|md|mgex ge d ~bpidebe| ~bdhb } |jb

bel ga 0>>;% Xgr|j Ogpbde gaamhmdcx jdqb xdml |jb r~hgimek me|bp)Ogpbde xriim|

~pgimxbx x|b~x |g{dpl d ~bdhb pbkmib%

Kb||mek mexmlb Omi Fgek)mcx jbdl mx eg ibde abd|# r| m| {grcl b pbdxged`cb |g dxxrib

|jd| jmx qmb{ ga |jb {gpcl mx qbp} lmaabpbe| apgi grpx% [b oeg{ {b dpb eg| d lmpbh|

|jpbd| |g Egp|j Ogpbd? agp dcc |jb |dco ga pbkmib hjdekb# |jbpb jdx bbe eg |dx|b agp


15/29

\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex 4>4

|jmeomek ga mi~gxmek m| } agphb ga dpix% Xraamhb |g xd}# |jb {gpcl id} eg| cggo |jd|

{d} apgi |jb ~bpx~bh|mqb ga d hcgmx|bpbl# mxgcd|bl d`xgcr|b dr|ghpd|# {jgxb |g~ amqb

hgehbpex dpb dcc |jb xbhrpm|} ga jmx pbkmib del jmixbca% Dcc |jb |dco ga ~pbbi~|mge#

pbmeagphbl } |jb gqbp|jpg{ ga Xdlldi# ~crx |jb dzmx ga bqmc# ~crx |dco ga pbkmib

hjdekb hde gec} ~cd} |g {jd|bqbp hgexmlbpd`cb ~dpdegmd jb irx| jdqb% Me |jd| xbexb#

jmx hgehbpe d`gr| xbhrpm|} mx pbdc%

\jrx# d ~bdhb |pbd|} imkj| mehcrlb d eri`bp ga ibdxrpbx |jd| hgx| |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx

cm||cb r| imkj| ~cd} |g |jgxb Egp|j Ogpbde xbhrpm|} hgehbpex% \jb |pbd|} imkj| bkme

{m|j |jb agpidc hbxxd|mge ga jgx|mcm|mbx# pb~cdhmek |jb 4=28 dpimx|mhb dkpbbibe| {m|j d

~bpidebe| ~bdhb |pbd|} xmkebl `} Egp|j del Xgr|j Ogpbd# Hjmed# del |jb Rem|bl

X|d|bx del belgpxbl `} d RE Xbhrpm|} Hgrehmc pbxgcr|mge% Geb `crb)pm``ge ~debc

*D|cde|mh Hgrehmc 0>>;-# pb~gp|mek me D~pmc 0>>;# dpkrbl agp d ~dhodkb ga dkpbbibe|x

ge ~dpdccbc |pdhox# eg| geb xmekcb gqbpdphjmek |pbd|}% \jb ~dhodkb imkj| mehcrlb

dkpbbibe|x ge lberhcbdpmvd|mge del qbpmamhd|mge# hgeqbe|mgedc dpix pblrh|mge del

pblb~cg}ibe|# |pdlb del lbqbcg~ibe| dxxmx|dehb# egpidcmvbl Egp|j Ogpbde pbcd|mgex

{m|j |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del Fd~de# del d ~bdhb del xbhrpm|} agpri bx|d`cmxjbl me ~cdhb

ga |jb xmz)~dp|} |dcox% \jbxb dkpbbibe|x {grcl cd} |jb agreld|mge agp ~bdhbarc#

lbighpd|mh# del kpdlrdc Ogpbde remamhd|mge } ~pgqmlmek |jb hgelm|mgex agp imcm|dp}

lb)bxhdcd|mge del Egp|j Ogpbdx me|bkpd|mge me|g |jb me|bped|mgedc bhgegi}%

Egeb ga |jbxb mlbdx mx eb{# agp dx bdpc} dx 4=;8# Xgr|j Ogpbd agpidcc} hdccbl agp d

~bdhbarc remamhd|mge% Egp|j Ogpbd ~pg~gxbl d ~bdhb |pbd|} me 4=:>> Fgme| Hgiiremtr b|{bbe [dxjmek|ge del }gek}dek hdccbl agp mi~pgqmek

`mcd|bpdc pbcd|mgex |jpgrkj bhgegimh hgg~bpd|mge# del |jb ampx| me|bp)Ogpbde xriim| me

0>>> cdml gr| d ~d|j agp ~bdhbarc me|bkpd|mge%

Me |pdexabppmek |jbxb cbxxgex |g Mpde# |jb Mpde hdxb id} `b jdplbp x|mcc% Ma igx|Dibpmhdex {grcl dkpbb {m|j cghd|mek Egp|j Ogpbd me |jb dzmx ga bqmc# |jd| bqmc mx

~pb||} d`x|pdh|% \jb hgre|p} mx lmx|de|# hcgxbl# del reqmxm|bl? |jb imccmge {jg lmbl me

adimeb lmbl d{d} apgi HEE# del bqbe |jb Ogpbde [dp mx `} eg{ d qbp} lmx|de|

ibigp}% Agp Mpde# me hge|pdx|# |jb gqbpdphjmek R%X% x|gp} mx repbim||mek jgx|mcm|} preemek

`dho |g |jb |dobgqbp ga |jb R%X% bi`dxx} me 4=;=% Dx ghhrppbl {m|j Dc Tdbld da|bp

|jb 44 Xb~|bi`bp 0>>4 d||dhox# beim|} jdplc} idobx agp bi~d|j}# del xg m| mx dcc |gg

bdx} |g |rpe agbx me|g hdpmhd|rpbx# agp Dibpmhde xghmb|} ma eg| agp m|x agpbmke ~gcmh}%

Eg|mhb jg{ apbtrbe|c} Mpdex ~pbxmlbe|# Idjigrl Djidlmebfdl# jdx bbe ~gp|pd}bl

me ~g~rcdp hgiibe|dpmbx dx d idlide% Jmx 0>>2 cmeb# {jmhj {dx ampx| |pdexcd|bl dx


16/29

4 >0 R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

|jb ghhr~}mek pbkmib _me MxpdbcY irx| b {m~bl gaa |jb id~ miiblmd|bc} bhdib

~gp|pd}bl dx d hdcc |g lbx|pg} |jb x|d|b ga Mxpdbc# ma eg| d hdcc |g kbeghmlb%>;# ~bphbe| ga |jb oeg{e pbxbpqbx me |jb Krca pbkmge *HMD 0>>;-%


17/29


X|d|bx% \jb Mxcdimh Pb~r`cmh ga Mpde jdx ~pgqmlbl xrx|dmebl del xr`x|de|mdc xr~~gp| |g

dpibl Xjmd adh|mgex me Mpdt# Cb`dege# del dcbx|meb me de baagp| |g bz|bel m|x meacrbehb%

Dhhgplmekc}# d`xbe| d hjdekb me m|x x|pd|bkmh gpmbe|d|mge# d erhcbdp)dpibl Mpde imkj|

xbbo |g dlqdehb m|x pbqmxmgemx| dkbeld igpb dkkpbxxmqbc} |jde m| jdx jbpb|gagpb# ~bpjd~x

`} hgelrh|mek |bppgpmx| g~bpd|mgex del g|jbp agpix ga qmgcbehb `bcg{ |jb cbqbc ga

cdpkb)xhdcb {dpadpb%1

Me |jbxb hmphrix|dehbx# d~~pgdhjbx |jd| dpb *pbcd|mqbc}- kbebpgrx {mcc b jdpl |g xbcc

~gcm|mhdcc}# del lbqmxmek hgiige kpgrel {mcc b lmaamhrc| me|bccbh|rdcc}% \jb pbdh|mge |g

|jb Drkrx| 0>>; dkpbbibe| `b|{bbe Mpde del |jb MDBD {dx pbacbh|mqb% \jb

dkpbbibe|ge d |mib|d`cb agp Mpde |g hcbdp r~ d jdca lgvbe hge|pgqbpxmbx gqbp ~dx|

xrx~bh| erhcbdp dh|mqm|mbx# ~crx |jb kpde|mek ga {mlbp dhhbxx |g MDBD mex~bh|gpx

hdib dx d xrp~pmxb |g |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del m|x Brpg~bde dccmbx# del |jbmp mem|mdc pbdh|mge

{dx |jd| m| {dx d xbccgr| |g d pbkmib |jd| jdl cmbl ~pbqmgrxc}% \jb agrp hgre|pmbx|jb

Rem|bl X|d|bx# ~crx @pm|dme# Apdehb# del Kbpide}lb|bpimebl |g ~pbxx agp d |jmpl

pgrel ga RE xdeh|mgex dkdmex| Mpde% @} Xb~|bi`bp# xbhgel |jgrkj|x cbl |jb hgre|pmbx

|g pbkdpl |jb dkpbbibe| dx ~gxm|mqb%

Me xr`x|dehb# xgib ga {jd| Egp|j Ogpbd {de|xd ~bdhb |pbd|} del egedkkpbxxmge

~cblkbxdpb admpc} bdx} agp |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx |g hgehblb% M| mx cbxx hcbdp {jd| Mpde

imkj| {de|# bqbe xjgrcl |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx b |bi~|bl |g b agp|jhgimek% X|deldpl

me|bp~pb|d|mgex# me |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx bx~bhmdcc}# |pbd| Mpde dx d {meebp dcc dpgrel6

bz|bpedcc}# |jb Mpdt {dp jdx |dobe gr| m|x idme pbkmgedc dlqbpxdp} del kmqbe \bjpdere~pbhblbe|bl meacrbehb |jbpb {jmcb cbblmek |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx? me|bpedcc}# eg{ dx me

|jb ~dx|# jmkj gmc ~pmhbx dpb dl agp |jb pbagpibpx } kmqmek |jb jdpl)cmebpx {jbpb{m|jdc

|g `r} gaa ~pg|bx|bpx# xg |jb pbhbe| lbigex|pd|mgex me |jb hgre|pmbx xjgrcl eg| `b

|dobe |gg xbpmgrxc}% Melbbl# |jb pbkmib abbcx xg hgeamlbe| |jd| m| {grcl mi~pmxge Mpdemde)

Dibpmhdex agp eg pbdxge g|jbp |jde |g x|mho d amekbp me Rehcb Xdix b}b%

Dx {m|j Egp|j Ogpbd# kb||mek mexmlb |jb qdpmgrx jbdlx |jd| idob r~ Mpdex kgqbpeibe|

mx eg| bdx}% @r| dcxg# dx {m|j Egp|j Ogpbd# Mpdex qmb{ ga |jb {gpcl id} eg| dhhgpl

{m|j grp midkmemekx agp m|% M|x cbdlbpx id} eg| abbc xg xbhrpb dx {b midkmeb# {m|j dcdpkb del {bcc)|pdmebl R%X% agphb ge m|x gplbp# {m|j |jb RE xdeh|mgemek del Mxpdbc

pd||cmek ~pbbi~|mqb xd`bpx d`gr| m|x erhcbdp ~pgkpdi# del {m|j me|bpedc bz~bh|d|mgex

pmxmek adx|% Me de} hdxb# |dcomek |g |jb pbkmib imkj| ~pgqmlb xgib pbdcm|} |g {jd| mx

dcigx| d hdpmhd|rpb%

1% Mpdex x~gexgpxjm~ ga |jb |bppgpmx| d||dho ge Ojg`dp \g{bpx me Ljdjpde me 4==1# {jmhj omccbl 4=Dibpmhdex# jdx `bbe admpc} {bcc bx|d`cmxjbl% Me Frc} 0>>4# |jb R%X% Lb~dp|ibe| ga Frx|mhb mxxrbl demelmh|ibe| ga 4< ibe ge hjdpkbx ga irplbp del hgex~mpdh} agp |jb gi`mek% \jb melmh|ibe| dccbkbl |jd|

dcc 4< {bpb ibi`bpx ga |jb Mxcdimh imcm|de| kpgr~ Jbv`gccdj# del |jd| |jmx kpgr~ pbhbmqbl xr~~gp| apgimelmqmlrdcx {m|jme |jb Mpdemde kgqbpeibe|% Xbb Ojg`dp \g{bpx Melmh|ibe|x Pb|rpebl# HEE# j||~6''dphjmqbx%hee%hgi'0>>4'CD['>1'04'ojg dp%melmh|ibe|x'%


18/29

4 >< R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

Del |jbpb mx d jmx|gp} ga d| cbdx| m|x ga hgiige kpgrel b|{bbe |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx

del Mpde% Mpdex pbcd|mgex {m|j Dakjdemx|dex \dcm de pbkmib {bpb dl bagpb Xb~|bi`bp

44# del |jb da|bpid|j ga |jb d||dhox lbigex|pd|bl `g|j |jb xhg~b del cmim|x ga |jb

xjdpbl me|bpbx|x {m|j |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx% Me |jb mex|dehb ga |jb \dcm`de del Dc Tdbld#

Mpde jdl igpb |g cgxb |jde |g kdme apgi |bppgpmxi# bx~bhmdcc} d `pdel |jd| {dx Xdrlm)

`dxbl del mex~mpbl `} [djjd`m Xreemmxi% Mpde {dx dcxg hgehbpebl d`gr| |jb |{g

imccmge Dakjde imkpde|x ge m|x xgmc% Mpde del |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx lml hgg~bpd|b trmb|c}#

~bpjd~x bqbe me xjdpmek me|bccmkbehb% Mpde xr~~gp|bl |jb Egp|jbpe Dccmdehb# del m|

kpde|bl |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx cmim|bl rxb ga m|x dmpx~dhb del gaabpbl |g jbc~ R%X% xgclmbpx

me lmx|pbxx ge Mpdemde |bppm|gp}%

Q% Mehbe|mqbx del Erhcbdp Pbkmibx

[jd|bqbp |jb lm~cgid|mh ibpm|x ga |domek R%X%)Melmde pbcd|mgex |g d eb{ ~cd|bdr# |jb

Lbhbi`bp 0>>2 dkpbbibe| |g pbxrib erhcbdp hgg~bpd|mge del |jb fgme| lb|bpimed|mge

|g {gpo gr| hgg~bpd|mqb dppdekbibe|x baabh|mqbc} ~r| |jb amedc edmc me |jb hgaame ga |jb

E^\% Me baabh|# Melmd{jmhj# dcgek {m|j domx|de# ebqbp fgmebl |jb E^\{dx bmek

pb{dplbl agp jdqmek kgeb erhcbdp% M| {dx agpidcc} dhhb~|bl dx jdqmek hpgxxbl |jb

cmeb |g bmek d erhcbdp {bd~gex x|d|b%

\jb dpkdme mexhpm`bl me |jb |pbd|} *E^\ 4=1:- dc{d}x {dx xgib|jmek ga de rejgc}

geb% Me pb|rpe agp ege)erhcbdp {bd~gex x|d|bx pbapdmemek apgi dhtrmpmek |jbi# |jberhcbdp {bd~gex x|d|bx dkpbbl |g ebkg|md|mgex % % % pbcd|mek |g hbxxd|mge ga |jb erhcbdp

dpix pdhb d| de bdpc} ld|b del |g erhcbdp lmxdpidibe|# del |g igqb |g{dpl d

|pbd|} ge kbebpdc del hgi~cb|b lmxdpidibe| relbp x|pmh| del baabh|mqb me|bped|mgedc

hge|pgc% \jd| ~pgqmlbl {grcl)`b ~pgcmabpd|gpx d ~bp~b|rdc bzhrxb# agp {bd~gex)x|d|b

dpix hge|pgc {dx eg| cmobc} |g cbdl |g erhcbdp lmxdpidibe|# cb| dcgeb kbebpdc del

hgi~cb|b lmxdpidibe|% M| dcxg lmx|pdh|bl apgi |jb hbe|pdc dpkribe| agp

ege~pgcmabpd|mge|jd| Kbpide}# Fd~de# X{blbe# del g|jbpx abc| igpb xbhrpb {m|jgr|

erhcbdp {bd~gex |jde {m|j |jbi% \jb} abc| |jd| {d} eg| `bhdrxb erhcbdp){bd~gex

x|d|bx {bpb d`gr| |g bcmimed|b |jbmp {bd~gex r|# me ide} hdxbx# ~pbhmxbc} bhdrxb|jgxb erhcbdp){bd~gex x|d|bx jdl |jbi del {bpb dccmbx%

[gpxb# |jb E^\ xgrkj| |g lmxhgrpdkb erhcbdp {bd~gex {jmcb m| behgrpdkbl erhcbdp

~g{bp% M|x Dp|mhcb MQ bx|d`cmxjbx |jd| ege)erhcbdp {bd~gex x|d|bx jdqb de medcmbed`cb

pmkj| |g lbqbcg~# ~pglrhb# del pbxbdphj |jb ~bdhbarc d~~cmhd|mgex ga erhcbdp bebpk}%

\jd| ibdex# me |jb hgcgparc cdekrdkb ga Jbep} Xgogcxom *0>>;-# {jg jdx {pm||be igx|

d`gr| |jmx mxxrb# |jd|6

Egp|j Ogpbdx xme {dx eg| |jd| m| rmc| d ~cde| |jd| hgrcl ~pghbxx ide}`gi`x {gp|j ga erhcbdp arbc# gp |jd| m| g~bpd|bl d pbdh|gp lmxhgeebh|bl


19/29


apgi m|x bcbh|pmhdc kpml del g~|mimvbl m| |g ~pglrhb {bd~gex)rxd`cb

~cr|gemri% Dcc ga |jmx {dx ~bpimxxm`cb% [jd| {dx mi~bpimxxm`cb {dx

Egp|j Ogpbdx lbhmxmge |g cgho mex~bh|gpx apgi jdqmek arcc dhhbxx |g

|jbxb adhmcm|mbx% Xmimcdpc}# Mpdex hpmib {dx eg| |jd| m| bkde bepmhjmek

rpdemri *d ~pghbxx |jd| hde b rxbl |g idob bm|jbp pbdh|gp arbc gp gi`x-

bqbe bagpb m| jdl d xmekcb cdpkb pbdh|gp ge cmeb gp |jd| m| mi~gp|bl erhcbdp

{bd~gex lbxmke meagpid|mge% Mex|bdl# m| {dx Mpdex admcrpb |g lbhcdpb dcc

m|x erhcbdp dh|mqm|mbx me d |mibc} ideebp |g |jb Me|bped|mgedc D|gimh Bebpk}

Dkbeh} *MDBD-%

\gld}x bebpk} ~pmhbx gec} bzdhbp`d|b |jb ~pg`cbi |jd| jmx|gpmhdc ~pbhblbe| ~pbxbe|x%

[jd|bqbp |jbmp ig|mqd|mgex# igpb x|d|bxmehcrlmek |jgxb# cmob Mpde# {m|j |jb {gpclx

|jmpl)cdpkbx| gmc pbxbpqbx# {jmhj jdqb d`xgcr|bc} eg ebbl agp erhcbdp bebpk}{mcc b

d`cb |g dpkrb |jd| |jbmp erhcbdp ~rpxrm|x dpb ~bdhbarc% \jd| {mcc dccg{ |jbi |g lbqbcg~

|jb igx| xbexm|mqb ~dp|x ga |jb arbc h}hcb del |jrx bhgib btrm~~bl |g lbqbcg~ erhcbdp

{bd~gex me xjgp| gplbp% Xbbmek |jd|# g|jbp hgre|pmbx {mcc agccg{ xrm|% Del |jb hjdxb

{mcc b ge% \jmx mx dcigx| bzdh|c} |jb dpkribe| |jb |jbe RE xbhpb|dp} kbebpdc Ogam

Deede *0>>2- idlb d| |jb 0>>2 E^\ pbqmb{ hgeabpbehb%

Dx Xgogcxom del g|jbpx jdqb {pm||be# m| lmle| jdqb |g |rpe gr| |jmx {d}% \jb E^\

dh|rdcc} idobx eg ibe|mge ga erhcbdp arbc idomek# pb~pghbxxmek# gp bepmhjibe|% Baagp|x

me |jb 4=1>x |g kb| E^\ ebkg|md|gpx |g mehcrlb de bz~cmhm| pbabpbehb |g |jb be|mpb arbc

h}hcb# mehcrlmek arbc idomek# dx d ~bp xb pmkj|# {bpb dcc pbfbh|bl% D| |jb |mib# |jbX{blmxj pb~pbxbe|d|mqb *I}pldc 4=1;# 21- bqbe xrkkbx|bl |jd| prcbx ebblbl |g `b

bx|d`cmxjbl |g ~pbqbe| ed|mgex apgi kb||mek me|g xrhj ldekbpgrx dh|mqm|mbx `bhdrxb

|jbpb xbbibl eg hcbdp {d} |g ~pbqbe| ed|mgex |jd| imkj| idob erhcbdp arbc apgi

bm|jbp lmqbp|mek |jb arbc gp hgeqbp|mek |jb arbc)idomek ~cde|x qbp} trmhoc} |g idob

`gi`x%

\jbpb {dx d| |jb |mib d hcbdp xbexb |jd| {jmcb |jb E^\ {dx me|belbl |g xjdpb |jb

`bebam|x ga |jb d~~cmhd|mge ga ~bdhbarc erhcbdp bebpk}# m| idlb eg xbexb |g x|pb|hj m|

|g ~pg|bh| qbe|rpbx |jd| idlb eg bhgegimh xbexb del {bpb ldekbpgrx |g gg|% \jd|{dx d~~dpbe| me |jb jdelcmek ga xg)hdccbl ~bdhbarc erhcbdp bz~cgxmqbx# {jmhj |rpebl

gr| |g b xg ldekbpgrx del mi~gxxm`cb |g xdabkrdpl |jd| |jb |pbd|} gec} x~gob d`gr|

xjdpmek |jb ~g|be|mdc bebam|x ga ~bdhbarc erhcbdp bz~cgxmqbx |jd| {grcl b xr~~cmbl

`} erhcbdp {bd~gex x|d|bx% Eg ~rp~gxb {dx bqbp agrel agp |jbi# del egeb {dx bqbp

pbtrbx|bl%

Egp lml |jb apdibpx ga |jb E^\ bcmbqb me de} medcmbed`cb pmkj| |g lbqbcg~# pbxbdphj#

gp ~pglrhb ~bdhbarc erhcbdp bebpk}# geb |jd| hgrcl dccg{ x|d|bx |g hge|pdqbeb |jb

E^\ pbx|pmh|mgex lbxmkebl |g ~pbqbe| |jb ~pgcmabpd|mge ga erhcbdp {bd~gex% \jb pbcbqde|pbx|pmh|mgex dpb me Dp|mhcbx M# MM# del MMM ga |jb |pbd|} *E^\ 4=1:-% Dp|mhcb M ~pgjm`m|x


20/29

4 >1 R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

erhcbdp {bd~gex x|d|bx dxxmx|_mekY# behgrpdk_mekY# gp melrh_mekY de} ege){bd~gex

x|d|b |g ideradh|rpb gp g|jbp{mxb dhtrmpb erhcbdp {bd~gex% Dp|mhcb MM ~pgjm`m|x ege)

{bd~gex x|d|bx apgi dhtrmpmek me de} {d} erhcbdp bz~cgxmqbx gp xbbomek de}

dxxmx|dehb me ideradh|rpmek |jbi% \gkb|jbp# |jbxb |{g ~pgjm`m|mgex xbbi |g de eg|

gec} |jb |pdexabp ga dh|rdc erhcbdp bz~cgxmqbx# `r| dcxg |jb |pdexabp ga de} erhcbdp

|bhjegcgk} gp id|bpmdcx |jd| hgrcl dxxmx|# behgrpdkb gp melrhb ege){bd~gex x|d|bx

|g ideradh|rpb gp g|jbp{mxb dhtrmpb |jbi%

Cbx| |jbpb b de} lgr`| d`gr| |jmx# |jb E^\ dcxg pbtrmpbx dcc ege){bd~gex x|d|bx |g

d~~c} xdabkrdplx dkdmex| dcc ga |jbmp erhcbdp adhmcm|mbx del jgclmekx ga x~bhmdc erhcbdp

id|bpmdcx% \jb ~rp~gxb ga |jbxb erhcbdp mex~bh|mgex# dhhgplmek |g |jb |pbd|}# mx

qbpmamhd|mge ga |jb arcamccibe| ga m|x g`cmkd|mgex dxxribl relbp |jmx \pbd|} {m|j d qmb{

|g ~pbqbe|mek lmqbpxmge ga erhcbdp bebpk} apgi ~bdhbarc rxbx |g erhcbdp {bd~gex%

\jbpb {dx d| |jb |mib eg dxxri~|mge |jd| xrhj xdabkrdplx {bpb dxxrpbl gp |jd| |jb

|bhjegcgk} {dx dqdmcd`cb# gec} |jb jg~b |jd| {d}x hgrcl `b agrel |g dxxrpb xrhj

xdabkrdplx%

Melbbl# cd|bp bz~bpmbehb cbdlx |g |jb hgehcrxmge |jd| ~cr|gemri pbh}hcmek hdeeg| b

xdabkrdplbl% Me Fderdp} 0>>8# agp bzdi~cb# Fd~debxb gaamhmdcx deegrehbl |jb} jdl

cgx| 0>1 omcgkpdix ga erhcbdp {bd~gexrxd`cb ~cr|gemri apgi |jbmp pbh}hcmek

adhmcm|}gp begrkj |g idob hprlb gi`x% Me |jb bel# d| cbdx| :1 omcgkpdix pbidmebl

redhhgre|bl agp *Pdjide 0>>8? EHM 0>>8-% Hbe|pmarkb rpdemri bepmhjibe| ~cde|x

hde `b trmhoc} hgeqbp|bl |g idob {bd~gex)kpdlb arbc% Dx d pbxrc|# mex~bh|gpx hdecggo del ibdxrpb# r| m| mx jdpl agp |jbi |g oeg{ ~pbhmxbc} jg{ irhj arbc jdx bbe

~pglrhbl% Egp hde |jb} lb|bh| |jb lmqbpxmge ga arbc agp {bd~gex ~rp~gxbx xgge begrkj

|g ~pbqbe| |jb lmqbpxmge%

\jb adh| |jd| |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del m|x dccmbx jdqb lrk xrhj d lbb~ jgcb mx eg dpkribe|

dkdmex| x|g~~mek |jb lmkkmek% \jb} jdqb lrk |jb jgcb } |dhm|c} dhhb~|mek |jb dpkribe|

|jde bqbp} ed|mge jdx d pmkj| |g de} del dcc erhcbdp id|bpmdcx del dh|mqm|mbx xg cgek dx

m| lbhcdpbx |jbi# hcdmix |jb} dpb agp ~bdhbarc ~rp~gxbx# del dccg{x MDBD mex~bh|gpx

ghhdxmgedcc} |g qmxm| |jbi% \jbpb mx xgib pbhgkem|mge |jd| |jb jgcb mx ldekbpgrx% Agpmex|dehb# Apdehb *KGA 0>>>< |jd| erhcbdp arbcidomek

|bhjegcgk} xjgrcl b |pdexabppbl gec} |g hgre|pmbx |jd| jdqb d hcbdp bebpk} ebbl# d

hpblm`cb erhcbdp bebpk} ~pgkpdi# del de bhgegimhdcc} pd|mgedc ~cde agp lbqbcg~mek

xrhj ~pgfbh|x% Mpdex med`mcm|} |g ibb| de} ga |jgxb hpm|bpmd jdx cbl Apdehb |g trbx|mge

|jb xmehbpm|} ga \bjpdex hcdmi |g jdqb de medcmbed`cb pmkj| |g idob m|x g{e erhcbdp

arbc%

]b|# dcdx# |jb cgg~jgcb mx be|pbehjbl# daabh|mek bqbe |jb erhcbdp arbcidomek dh|mqm|mbx

ga Egp|j Ogpbd# Mpdt# del Mpde% Da|bp |jb Hdp|bp dlimemx|pd|mgex rc|mid|bc} admcblbaagp| |g pbx|pmh| |jb x~pbdl ga |jb arcc erhcbdp arbc h}hcb# |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del m|x ob}


21/29

\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex 4>;

dccmbx jdqb cgek hgelgebl |jb erhcbdp arbc idomek ga ide} ga |jbmp ob} dccmbx del

apmbelx |jd| lg eg| }b| jdqb erhcbdp {bd~gexKbpide}# |jb Eb|jbpcdelx# Fd~de#

@pdvmc# Dpkbe|med# Drx|pdcmd# del Ropdmeb# agp mex|dehb% M| {mcc b jdpl |g pbqbpxb hgrpxb#

`r|# dkdme# |jd| mx eg dpkribe| agp eg| `bkmeemek% Geb ~cdhb |g x|dp| {grcl `b {m|j

dhhgre|mek# ~r||mek ~pbxxrpb ge erhcbdp g~bpd|gpx |g dhhgre| agp |jb arcc hgx|x ga

erhcbdp ~g{bp% \jd| {mcc b dcc |jb igpb mi~gp|de| dx kpg{mek hgehbpe d`gr| kcg`dc

{dpimek idobx hgeqbe|mgedc ~g{bp ~cde|x cbxx d||pdh|mqb del erhcbdp gebx d~~dpbe|c}

igpb xg%

Dx Xgogcxom *0>>;- ~jpdxbx m|6 \jb igx| ldekbpgrx erhcbdp ~pgfbh|x# m| |rpex gr|# dpb

dcxg |jb igx| bhgegimhdcc} rehgi~b|m|mqb% \jb bzdi~cbx {grcl mehcrlb erhcbdp ~g{bp

~cde|x me gmc) del ed|rpdc kdx)pmhj ed|mgex *agp bzdi~cb# Mpde- gp x|d|bx {m|jgr| d cdpkb

bcbh|pmhdc kpml *Egp|j Ogpbd-% Xg# |gg# |jb hd|bkgp} {grcl mehcrlb erhcbdp arbcidomek

~cde|x me hgre|pmbx gp pbkmgex {m|jgr| ide} ~g{bp pbdh|gpx *qmp|rdcc} de} x|d|b g|jbp

|jde Hjmed# Prxxmd# Fd~de# |jb Brpg~bde Remge# del |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx-% Eg{# igx| ga

|jb ob} trbx|mgex d`gr| erhcbdp adhmcm|mbxamedehmdc# mexrpdehb# ~pgcmabpd|mge# xdab|}#

del ~j}xmhdc xbhrpm|}dpb qbp} irhj daabh|bl `} kgqbpeibe|x# ma eg| lbhmlbl `}

|jbi% @} relbp{pm|mek pmxox del ~pgqmlmek d xdab|} eb| dkdmex| bz|bpedcm|mbx#

kgqbpeibe|x hgrcl b xbbe |g b# me baabh|# xr`xmlmvmek erhcbdp ~pgkpdix% Ma# } hge|pdx|#

d igpb dhhrpd|b hgre|mek ga dcc ga erhcbdp ~g{bpx jmllbe hgx|x pbcd|mek |g |jbxb

mxxrbx {bpb pbtrmpbl# |jd| imkj| cbdl |g irhj bdpcmbp mlbe|mamhd|mge ga re{mxb del

rebhgegimhdc erhcbdp ~pgfbh|x%

Erhcbdp ~g{bp imkj| x|mcc |rpe gr| |g b d||pdh|mqb me ide} hmphrix|dehbx# bx~bhmdcc}

dx |jb me|bped|mgedc hgiirem|} agccg{x |jb cbdl ga |jb Brpg~bde Remge del bedh|x

hdp`ge |dzbx% @r| m| {grcl cbqbc |jb ~cd}mek ambcl# idomek xrpb |jd| bz|bpedcm|mbx ga

erhcbdp ~g{bp dpb dhhgre|bl agp del melmhd|mek {jb|jbp# me de} kmqbe mex|dehb# erhcbdp

~g{bp pbdcc} mx hjbd~bp |jde hcbde hgdc# ed|rpdc kdx# j}lpg~g{bp# del pbeb{d`cb

dc|bped|mqbx% M| {grcl eg| lbdc lmpbh|c} {m|j Mpde gp Egp|j Ogpbd# {jbpb |jb kdib mx

dcpbdl} adp dcgek% @r| m| {grcl cbdpe |jb cbxxgex ga g|j |jgxb hdxbx# ebm|jbp ga {jmhj

jdx de dpkribe| agp erhcbdp ~g{bp# del jbc~ |g ~pbqbe| |jbi apgi bhgimek iglbcx

agp g|jbp hgre|pmbx xrhj dx Melgebxmd# Cm`}d# Xdrlm Dpd`md# Xgr|j Ogpbd# Emkbpmd#Bk}~|# \rpob}# Igpghhg# Fgplde# del ]bibe%

QM% Cmqmek {m|j |jb Re|jmeod`cb

\jb ~gxxm`mcm|} |jd| x|d|bx# Egp|j Ogpbd del Mpde me ~dp|mhrcdp# {mcc eg| `b lb|bppbl

apgi dhtrmpmek erhcbdp {bd~gex# ma eg| dh|rdc dpxbedcx# pbtrmpbx |jmeomek d`gr| |jb

mi~cmhd|mgex agp g|j hpmxmx del ~gcmh} *[dc|v 4=:4-% cdmec}# |jb agccg{)ge baabh|x ge

g|jbp ed|mgex del |jbmp hjgmhbx dpb hpm|mhdc del ~bpjd~x bx~bhmdcc} re~pblmh|d`cb me |jbhdxb ga Mpde% M| id} b rxbarc# |jgrkj# |g bkme |jb x~bhrcd|mgex {m|j |jb igpb hgehpb|b6


22/29

4 >: R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

[j} imkj| ed|mgex xbbo |g kg erhcbdp del jg{ imkj| |jb} rxb |jb ~pghbxx me ~bdhb gp

{dp7 Ed|mgex id} ~bphbmqb d eri`bp ga pbdxgex agp igqmek |g{dpl gp jdqmek erhcbdp

{bd~gexdeg|jbp pbdxge |g |dob xbpmgrxc} |jb |dxo ga relbpx|delmek {jd| imkj| b

me |jbmp jbdlx# eg| frx| grpx% Agp Mpde# agp mex|dehb# |jb ~rp~gxbx imkj| b |g6

Lb|bp imcm|dp} |jpbd|x gp d||dhox } |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx del# ~bpjd~x# g|jbpx?

Pblpbxx m|x imcm|dp} meabpmgpm|} qmx))qmx Mxpdbc# domx|de# Melmd# del Prxxmd

ebmkj`gpmek x|d|bx |jd| jdqb erhcbdp {bd~gex?

Bejdehb ed|mgedc ~pbx|mkb del meacrbehb?

Xjgpb r~ lgibx|mh ~gcm|mhdc xr~~gp|? del

Bexrpb |jb xrpqmqdc ga |jb pbkmib me |jb bqbe| ga {dp *]d~jb del Cr|bx 0>>2#

82-%

\jb Egp|j Ogpbde pbkmib ~pg`d`c} xjdpbx ide} ga |jbxb ig|mqd|mgex% M| imkj| dcxg

xbb m|x erhcbdp ~pgkpdi dx d xgrphb ga cbqbpdkb ge |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx# Fd~de# Xgr|j

Ogpbd# del Hjmed agp bz|pdh|mek bhgegimh dxxmx|dehb%

Agp dr|jgpm|dpmde gp lbx~g|mh cbdlbpx xrhj dx Egp|j Ogpbdx Omi Fgek)mc# lb|bppmek

|jpbd|x |g |jb xrpqmqdc ga |jb pbkmib id} b |jb igx| hgi~bccmek ig|mqd|mge agp kgmekerhcbdp% \jd| jmx|gpmhdcc} jdx `bbe d| |jb |g~ ga |jb cmx| agp xrhj cbdlbpx# {jg dpb

dc{d}x cggomek agp xgrphbx ga cbkm|midh}% Igpbgqbp# {jbe ~g{bp mx xbmvbl del jbcl

agphm`c}# |jb xrpqmqdc ga |jb pbkmib mx ga|be x}ege}igrx {m|j |jb ~bpxgedc xrpqmqdc ga

|jgxb d| |jb |g~ ga |jb pbkmib%

\jb xm|rd|mge me Mpde mx igpb hgi~cmhd|bl% Mpde jdx g|j lbighpd|mh del dr|jgpm|dpmde

bcbibe|x {m|jme m|x kgqbpemek x|prh|rpb% M| jdx d ~g~rcdpc} bcbh|bl ~pbxmlbe| del d

~dpcmdibe| {jgxb ibi`bpxjm~ mx xjd~bl eg| gec} } |jb hcbpmhdc bx|d`cmxjibe| r|

dcxg `} |jb bcbh|gpd|b% D| |jb xdib |mib# |jb egebcbh|bl pbcmkmgrx bx|d`cmxjibe|hgiidelx rc|mid|b dr|jgpm|} me |jb hgre|p}% Mpdex kgqbpemek bcm|bx dpb lmqmlbl }

lbb~ del belrpmek ~jmcgxg~jmhdc lmaabpbehbx me|g |jpbb hdi~x{jmhj imkj| b cd`bcbl#

me |gg hcbdp xjgp|jdel# jdpl)cmebpx# ~pdkid|mx|x# del pbagpibpx% Del ide} bcbibe|x

{m|jme Mpdemde xghmb|} dpb oeg{e |g b lmxxd|mxambl {m|j |jb pbkmibx ~bpagpidehb%

]b| |jb pbkmib jdx xjg{e d kpbd| lbdc ga pbxmcmbeh}% Adh|mgex {m|jme |jb pbkmib m|xbca

del me |jb xghmb|} {pm| cdpkb |bel |g hcgxb pdeox {jbe hgeapge|bl {m|j ~pbxxrpb gp

|jpbd|x apgi bz|bpedc xgrphbx|jb Imcgbqmh baabh| dkdme *\dob}j 0>>1# 0=-%


23/29

\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex 4>=

Eg|{m|jx|delmek |jbxb lmaabpbehbx b|{bbe Egp|j Ogpbd del Mpde# pbkmib xrpqmqdc

{grcl `b d hgpb g`fbh|mqb agp `g|j ed|mgex me de} hpmxmx gp hgeacmh|%; \g d cbdlbp

hgehbpebl {m|j jmx d`mcm|} |g idme|dme d kpm~ ge ~g{bp me |jb bqbe| ga {dp# |jb qdcrb ga

erhcbdp {bd~gex mx g`qmgrx6 Ma de d||dho } d R%X%)cbl hgdcm|mge {grcl ~gxb d xmkemamhde|

|jpbd| |g }grp pbkmib del }grp ed|mge hdeeg| daagpl hgeqbe|mgedc agphbx hd~d`cb ga

lb|bppmek gp lbabd|mek xrhj de d||dho# erhcbdp {bd~gex id} b xbbe dx |jb dex{bp%

Del# dkdme# {jd|bqbp {b id} |jmeo# agp ide} dr|jgpm|dpmde cbdlbpx# |jb ~pgx~bh| ga

|jbmp gqbp|jpg{ } |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx mx eg| de d`x|pdh| ~pg~gxm|mge% @g|j ga |jb R%X%

ed|mgedc xbhrpm|} x|pd|bk} lghribe|x pbcbdxbl } |jb @rxj dlimemx|pd|mge lbhcdpbl

|jd| |jb rc|mid|b kgdc ga |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx mx belmek |}pdee}% Del g|j Egp|j Ogpbd

del Mpde dpb hm|bl dx bzdi~cbx ga |jb |}~bx ga pbkmibx d`gr| {jmhj |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx

jdp`gpx kpdqb hgehbpex *[jm|b Jgrxb 0>>1-% \jb gqbp|jpg{ ga |jb \dcm`de me

Dakjdemx|de me 0>>4 del Xdlldi Jrxxbme me 0>>8 ~pg`d`c} jbmkj|bebl |jb lb|bpimed|mge

ga g|jbp pbkmgedc dlqbpxdpmbx |g amel d ibdex ga abelmek gaa xrhj d||dhox%

Egp|j Ogpbd del Mpde xrpbc} jdqb hgeqbe|mgedc agphbx meabpmgp |g |jgxb dppd}bl# gp

|jd| imkj| b dppd}bl# dkdmex| |jbi% Ma |jb} jdl dh|rdc erhcbdp {bd~gex# |jb agphbx

{grcl `b xidcc *del bz~bexmqb-% Igpbgqbp# |jbpb {grcl `b xgib ~bpmgl me |jb

~pgkpbxxmge apgi erhcbdp g~|mgex |g erhcbdp {bd~gex lrpmek {jmhj {b *del ~bpjd~x

|jb}# |gg- imkj| b rehcbdp {jb|jbp |jb {bd~gex dh|rdcc} {grcl kg gaa% Ge |jd| xhgpb#

|jb Egp|j Ogpbde erhcbdp |bx| mx d hdxb me ~gme|%

\jbmp agphbx {grcl `b rxbcbxx ma eg| xrpqmqd`cb% Xg |jb} {grcl |dob ~dmex# dx `g|j

Egp|j Ogpbd del Mpde jdqb# |g idob |jbi xrpqmqd`cb% Ge |jd| xhgpb# |jb 4==4 Krca

[dp mx d hdxb me ~gme|# geb |jd| pbmeagphbx |jb cmim|x ge ~pbbi~|mge xrkkbx|bl bdpcmbp me

|jmx ~d~bp% @bagpb |jb {dp# |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx abc| m| jdl d admpc} hgi~cb|b relbpx|delmek

ga Mpdtx erhcbdp {bd~gex meapdx|prh|rpb% \jb >;# 0>>4-%


24/29

4 4> R%X%Ogpbd Dhdlbimh X}i~gxmri

apgi d pbkmgedc dlqbpxdp} *gp bqbe |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx-% Xg cbxxbp |jpbd|x gp d||dhox

{grcl dcxg bhgib |jmeod`cb%

Xgib{jd| ~dpdlgzmhdcc}# |jb qbp} pm||cbebxx ga dr|ghpd|mh pbkmibx imkj| idob agp

pmxo |domek me d hpmxmx ma pbkmib xrpqmqdc mx ~dpdigre|% Dx mx ga|be xdml# |jb {bdobp d

pbkmib mx d| jgib# |jb igpb mehcmebl m| id} b |g |dob pmxox d`pgdl% X|delmek r~ |g |jb

Rem|bl X|d|bx# eg| |g ibe|mge Hjmed# Prxxmd# del Xgr|j Ogpbd# ~pg`d`c} jbc~x Omi

Fgek)mc d| jgib# del R%X% jgx|mcm|} mx |jb bx| |jmek |jb Mpdemde pbkmib jdx kgmek agp m|%

\jb pbkmib {dx eg| d| x|dob# `r| ^domx|de xbbix |g jdqb `bbe igpb pbdl} |g pmxo d

hgeqbe|mgedc mehrpxmge me|g Melmde)hge|pgccbl Odxjimp me 4==: bhdrxb m|imx|dobec}#

m| |rpebl gr|`bcmbqbl bm|jbp |jd| |jb erhcbdp x|delgaa {grcl ~dpdc}vb Melmd gp |jd|

gr|xmlb ~g{bpx {grcl dh| |g trmhoc} xeraa gr| hgeacmh| b|{bbe edxhbe| erhcbdp ~g{bpx%

Me ~bdhb# imkj| d erhcbdp Mpde abbc m| {dx be|m|cbl |g igpb lbabpbehb apgi abccg{

G^BH ibi`bpx gp apgi ebmkj`gpx del |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx7 Me hgeacmh|# {j} {grcle|

Egp|j Ogpbd gp Mpde b lb|bppbl } ~gxxm`cb R%X% pb|dcmd|mge{j} mxe| [dc|v pmkj|7

Dkdme# ma pbkmib xrpqmqdc mx ~dpdigre|# cbdlbpx imkj| ~bphbmqb |jd| |jb x|dobx d| ~cd}#

cm|bpdcc} qm|dc agp |jbi# dpb cbxx agp |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx# del xg |jb ~pgimxbl pb|dcmd|mge

imkj| eg| hgib% Gp ma m| lml# m| {grcl b cm||cb {gpxb |jde |jb ~pgx~bh| ga pbkmib *del

cmab- |bpimed|mge adhmek |jbi%

@bhdrxb |jb eb{ erhcbdp ~g{bpx hgrcl ~pmidpmc} |jpbd|be ebmkj`gpx# |jb cgkmh ga |jb

Hgcl [dp {grcl b |rpebl ge m|x jbdl6 Lrpmek |jb Hgcl [dp# Brpg~bdex {bpb cba| |gdxo {jb|jbp |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx {grcl ~r| Eb{ ]gpo d| pmxo |g xdqb ^dpmx% Me |jb

ar|rpb# |jb trdeldp} imkj| bhgib {jb|jbp Xgr|j Ogpbd {grcl ~r| Xbgrc d| pmxo |g

hgeapge| d Egp|j Ogpbd `bjdqmek pbhocbxxc}% Imkj| |jd| lmcbiid `b bdxbl ma |jb

hdppg| gaabpbl {bpb xdab jdqbe agp cbdlbpx del |jbmp adimcmbx7

PBABPBEHBX

Dc`pmkj|# Ldqml# del Hgpb} Jmelbpx|bme% 0>># eg% 1 *Egqbi`bp'Lbhbi`bp-%

dc)Idpdxjm# M`pdjmi% 0>>8% Jg{ Mpdt Hgehbdcx del G`|dmex M|x [bd~gex ga Idxx Lbx|prh)|mge%Imllcb Bdx| Pbqmb{ ga Me|bped|mgedc Daadmpx *Ibpmd- Fgrpedc ;# eg% 4 *Idphj-%

Deede# Ogam% 0>>2% Xbhpb|dp})Kbebpdcx Dllpbxx |g |jb Erhcbdp Ege)^pgcmabpd|mge \pbd|}Pbqmb{ Hgeabpbehb% Eb{ ]gpo% 0 Id}% {{{%re%gpk'd~~x'xk'xkx|d|x%dx~7eml94>;%D Apdib{gpo agp ^bdhb del Xbhrpm|} me Ogpbd del Egp|jbdx| Dxmd%

D~pmc% [dxjmek|ge# L%H%6 D|cde|mh Hgrehmc ga |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx% {{{%dhrx%gpk'lghx'>;>


25/29

\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex 444

@geb# Bcmvd`b|j# del Hjpmx|g~jbp @gcohgi% 0>>8% Reideebl Dbpmdc Qbjmhcbx6 @dhokpgreldel Mxxrbx agp Hgekpbxx% [dxjmek|ge# L%H%6 Hgekpbxxmgedc Pbxbdphj Xbpqmhb% 02D~pmc% {{{%adx%gpk'mp~'hpx'PC84:;0%~la%

@rxj# Kbgpkb [% 0>>4% Pbidpox `} |jb ^pbxmlbe| |g X|rlbe|x del Adhrc|} d| Ed|mgedc Lb)abexb Remqbpxm|}% [jm|b Jgrxb# [dxjmek|ge# L%H% {{{%{jm|bjgrxb%kgq'eb{x'pbcbdxbx'0>>4'>2'0>>4>2>4)4>%j|ic%

% 0>>0% ^pbxmlbe| @rxj Lbcmqbpx Kpdlrd|mge X~bbhj d| [bx| ^gme|% [jm|b Jgrxb#[dxjmek|ge# L%H% {{{%{jm|bjgrxb%kgq'eb{x'pbcbdxbx'0>>0'>1'0>>0>1>4)8%j|ic%

% 0>>8d% ^pbxmlbe| @rxj Dllpbxxbx |jb Ed|mge% [jm|b Jgrxb# [dxjmek|ge# L%H%{{{%{jm|bjgrxb%kgq'meaghrx'mpdt'mpdtWdphjmqb%j|ic%

% 0>>8`% ^pbxmlbe| Lbcmqbpx X|d|b ga |jb Remge% [jm|b Jgrxb# [dxjmek|ge# L%H%

{{{%{jm|bjgrxb%kgq'eb{x'pbcbdxbx'0>>8'>4'0>>8>40:)4=%j|ic%

@r|cbp *\jb Cgpl @r|cbp ga @pgho{bcc-% 0>>0%j|ic%

% 0>>;% \jb [gpcl Adh|`ggo% [dxjmek|ge# L%H%6 HMD% j||~x6''{{{%hmd%kgq'hmd'~r`cmhd)|mgex'adh|`ggo%

Hgiimxxmge *Hgiimxxmge ge |jb Me|bccmkbehb Hd~d`mcm|mbx ga |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx Pbkdplmek[bd~gex ga Idxx Lbx|prh|mge-% 0>>2% Pb~gp| |g |jb ^pbxmlbe| ga |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx%[dxjmek|ge# L%H%6 K^G% {{{%{il%kgq'pb~gp|'%

LGX *R%X% Lb~dp|ibe| ga X|d|b-% 0>>;% Mem|mdc Dh|mgex agp |jb Mi~cbibe|d|mge ga |jb Fgme|X|d|bibe|% R%X% Lb~dp|ibe| ga X|d|b# [dxjmek|ge# L%H% {{{%x|d|b%kgq'p'~d'~px'~x'0>>;'ab`prdp}':>>2% @r| M|x Xg Hgcl me Dcdxod% Dxmd \mibx Gecmeb% 41 Lbhbi`bp%{{{%d|mibx%hgi'd|mibx'ImllcbWBdx|'KC41Do>8%j|ic%

Apdeo# Prblmkbp% 0>>1% \jb ^gcm|mhdc Bhgegi} ga Xdeh|mgex dkdmex| Egp|j Ogpbd%Dxmde^bpx~bh|mqb 8># eg% 8% {{{%edr|mcrx%gpk'agpd'xbhrpm|}'>14>>Apdeox%~la%

KGA *Kgqbpeibe| ga Apdehb-% 0>>>2 Pbqmb{ Hgeabp)behb ga |jb ^dp|mbx ga |jb \pbd|} ge |jb Ege)^pgcmabpd|mge ga Erhcbdp [bd~gex% >4% \jb Hgeacmh| gqbp Ogxgqg6 [j} Imcgxbqmh Lbhmlbl |g Xb||cb [jbeJb Lml% Xde|d Igemhd# Hdcma%6 PDEL%

% 0>>;% [j} |jb Mpdtm Pbxmx|dehb |g |jb Hgdcm|mge Meqdxmge [dx Xg [bdo%Xde|d Igemhd#

Hdcma%6 PDEL%

Jra`drbp# Kdp} Hc}lb# del Fbaapb} F% Xhjg||% 0>>1% Hde Xdeh|mgex X|g~ |jb Mpdemde @gi`7[dxjmek|ge# L%H%6 b|bpxge Mex|m|r|b agp Me|bped|mgedc Bhgegimhx% {{{%mmb%hgi'~r`cmhd|mgex'~d~bpx'~d~bp%hai7PbxbdphjML91>1%

Jra`drbp# Kdp} Hc}lb# Fbaapb} F% Xhjg||# del Omi`bpc} Dee Bccmg||% 4==>%Bhgegimh Xdeh|mgexPbhgexmlbpbl# 0el bl% [dxjmek|ge# L%H%6 Mex|m|r|b agp Me|bped|mgedc Bhgegimhx%

Idcgeb}# Xrvdeeb% 0>>;% Abdp del Cgd|jmek me \bjbpde% \jb Ed|mgedc Me|bpbx|=4 *Xb~|bi)`bp'Gh|g`bp-%

IhJbep}# Lgedcl% 4=::% Trg|bl meBrpg~b# Dibpmhd del Xgr|j Dapmhd# bl% Kpbkgp} A% \pbqbp|ge%Eb{ ]gpo6 Hgrehmc ge Agpbmke Pbcd|mgex%

I}pldc# Dcqd% 4=1;% X|d|bibe| } |jb X{blmxj Pb~pbxbe|d|mqb _Dcqd I}pldcY |g |jb Bmkj|bbeEd|mge Lmxdpidibe| Hgiim||bb6 Ege~pgcmabpd|mge ga Erhcbdp [bd~gex% MeLghr)ibe|x ge Lmxdpidibe|# ~r`cmhd|mge eg% >8% Begpigrx cr|gemri Kd~ d| Fd~dex \godm cde| Jmkjcmkj|x ^pgcmabpd|mge Pmxox ga Pb~pghbxxmek% ^pbxx pbcbdxb% 0: Fderdp}% {{{%ehm%gpk'

>8EHM'>4'~p40:>8%j|i%

EMH *Ed|mgedc Me|bccmkbehb Hgrehmc-% 0>>4% Agpbmke Imxxmcb Lbqbcg~ibe|x del |jb @dccmx|mhImxxmcb \jpbd| |jpgrkj 0>426 Rehcdxxmambl Xriidp} ga d Ed|mgedc Me|bccmkbehb Bx|m)id|b% Ed|mgedc Agpbmke Me|bccmkbehb @gdpl# [dxjmek|ge# L%H% Lbhbi`bp%{{{%cg}gcd%blr'lb~|'~gcm|mhx'me|bc'`i)r)0>>4)40%~la%

Emoxhj# Cdpp} D% 0>>2% Egp|j Ogpbdx Erhcbdp [bd~gex pgkpdi% [dxjmek|ge# L%H%6 Hgekpbxxmgedc Pbxbdphj Xbpqmhb% 84 Drkrx|%

E^\ *\pbd|} ge |jb Ege)^pgcmabpd|mge ga Erhcbdp [bd~gex-% 4=1:% Dp|mhcb QM%

{{{%dpixhge|pgc%gpk'lghribe|x'e~|%dx~%

GPgrpob# Pgedcl% 0>>8% Mpdt [dp6 Lbabexb pgkpdi Mi~cmhd|mgex agp Hgekpbxx% [dxjmek)|ge# L%H%6 Hgekpbxxmgedc Pbxbdphj Xbpqmhb% < Freb%

^gccdho# Fged|jde L% 0>>8% \jb Rem|bl X|d|bx# Egp|j Ogpbd# del |jb Bel ga |jb DkpbblApdib{gpo%Edqdc [dp Hgccbkb Pbqmb{ 21# eg% 8 *Xriibp-%

Pdjide# @d}de% 0>>8% Fd~de Cgxbx 0>1 ok ga cr|gemri% Amedehmdc \mibx# 0: Fderdp}%

Xhjim||# Bpmh% 0>>8% Me |jb Xombx gqbp Mpdt# Xmcbe| G`xbpqbpx @bhgib Ar|rpmx|mh [bd~gex#

Eb{ ]gpo \mibx# 4; D~pmc% {{{%e}|mibx%hgi'0>>8'>


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\g{dplx Xrx|dmed`cb Bhgegimh ! Xbhrpm|} Pbcd|mgex me Bdx| Dxmd6 R%X% ! PGO ^gcmh} G~|mgex 448

Xgogcxom# Jbep}% 0>>0% Hge|belmek {m|j d Erhcbdp Egp|j Ogpbd% Edr|mcrx Mex|m|r|b# XdeApdehmxhg% 08 Lbhbi`bp% j||~6''edr|mcrx%gpk'agpd'xbhrpm|}'>00:DWXgogcxom%j|ic%

% 0>>;% Idpob|)Agp|mambl Ege~pgcmabpd|mge% Me@pbdomek |jb Erhcbdp Mi~dxxb6 Eb{

^pgx~bh|x agp Xbhrpm|} Dkdmex| [bd~gex \jpbd|x# bl% Fbaapb} Cdrpbe|m del HdpcPg`mhjdrl% Eb{ ]gpo6 Hbe|rp} Agreld|mge ^pbxx%

X|decb}# [mccmx% 0>>8% Apgi Qmb|edi |g |jb Eb{ \pmdl6 R%X% Erhcbdp [bd~gex del OgpbdeXbhrpm|}% Edr|mcrx Mex|m|r|b# Xde Apdehmxhg% 44 Idphj% {{{%edr|mcrx%gpk'dphjmqbx'Qmb|ediAGMD'dedc}xbx'X|mccQdcml%j|ic(X|decb}%

\dob}j# Pd}% 0>>1%Jmllbe Mpde6 ^dpdlgz del ^g{bp me |jb Mxcdimh Pb~r`cmh% Eb{ ]gpo6\mibx @ggox%

[dc|v# Obeeb|j E% 4=:4% \jb X~pbdl ga Erhcbdp [bd~gex6 Igpb Id} @b @b||bp%Dlbc~jm

^d~bpx# eg% 4;4% Cgelge6 Me|bped|mgedc Mex|m|r|b agp X|pd|bkmh X|rlmbx%

[jm|b Jgrxb% 0>>0% Ed|mgedc Xbhrpm|} X|pd|bk} ga |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx ga Dibpmhd% [dxjmek)|ge# L%H%6 [jm|b Jgrxb# Xb~|bi`bp 0>>0% {{{%{jm|bjgrxb%kgq'exh'exx%~la%

% 0>>1% Ed|mgedc Xbhrpm|} X|pd|bk} ga |jb Rem|bl X|d|bx ga Dibpmhd% [dxjmek|ge#L%H%6 [jm|b Jgrxb# Idphj 0>>1% {{{%{jm|bjgrxb%kgq'exh'exx'0>>1'exx0>>1%~la%

]d~jb# Frlm|j# del Hjdpcbx L% Cr|bx% 0>>2% Pbdxxbxxmek |jb Mi~cmhd|mgex ga d Erhcbdp)DpiblMpde% IhEdmp d~bp eg% 1=% [dxjmek|ge# L%H%6 Mex|m|r|b agp Ed|mgedc X|pd|bkmh X|rlmbx%


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Lessons from the North Korean Nuclear Issue by Gregory F. Treverton

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Transcript of Lessons from the North Korean Nuclear Issue by Gregory F. Treverton