Topic 1 – Health & Wellness opportunity in a digital world

Lesson 6:

Health & Wellness

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Probably the biggest opportunity for humankind

“If you look at the global healthcare market, which is worth about $10 trillion, there are huge tech-enabled savings to be made in areas such as wellness and long-term disease management. “

Ali Parsa, founder, Babylon, The Times UK, 20/9/18

“Global insurance premiums exceed USD 5 trillion for the first time as pivot east continues”Swiss Re Institute’s latest sigma (2019)

TDI estimate : Health insurance US$1.5 trillion approx.

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Recap from 4IR – particularly relevant to health &

wellness

“ Cars are our feetCalculators are our mindsGoogle is our memory.

Our lives NOW are only partly biologicalwith no clear split between the organic and technological, the carbon and the silicon.

We may not know yet where we are goingBut we’ve already left where we have been.

”

Source : Closing remarks by DT Max in National Geographic feature, “The Next Human – taking evolution into our own hands” April 2017

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• One level a continuation of a well-established trend

• On another a major disconnect- unstoppable trends• Technology transforming healthcare itself (not major focus of this lesson but will cover a little)

• New data opportunities for prevention

• More informed consumer using digital tools

• Many more opportunities to reorganise the value chain for healthcare and healthcare financing

• + we just had covid-19 which is a supercharger for all of these trends

Trends are accelerating

Digital + Health + Insurance = Better Health Outcomes

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Future forecasting starting point – Optimist or

Pessimist?

Attitude – has a huge impact on the forecast – This is a lesson for optimists

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Healthier… … and wealthier

A success story until 2020 - healthier

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Healthier… … and wealthier

….& wealthier

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Global population aged > 60 (millions)

1980: 3232017: 960

2050: 2,100

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Middle class to dominate

Source : Projection by World Data Lab reported in The Times September 2018

NOW 2030

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Affordability is a key challenge

Business as usual in healthcare is a broken model

Health inflation – a curse for all

Source : RGA – taming global inflation

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Affordability is a key challengeHealth inflation – a curse for all

More labour

More capital (tech)

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Data is the “change agent” in health insurance

MORE DATA + DATA ANALYTICS + ACTIONABLE INSIGHTS

=HEALTHCARE TRANSFORMATION

“We will all have health data passports by 2030. Our personal health data will be more important than our financial data.

Data is the change agent for the healthcare industry”

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Technology will have solved this problem by 2035

Technology is the optimists’ solution to forecast labour shortages in healthcare

Opportunity

• Home testing• Virtual consultations• Uberisation of care in the home• Increased medical specialisation• AI in healthcare

(2013)

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Examples of overcoming shortages of healthcare

workers

Sunday Times UK , April 2017

Times UK , April 2017

DxTER, PSFK, April 2017

Healthcare Is returning to the home

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Hospitals a robo-human partnership

Star Wars ….

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Lifestyle diseases a key challenge

http://market-analysis.conferenceseries.com/diabetes-meeting-market-reports

19 Source: Swiss Re Asia Health Protection Gap Report October 2018 (16,000 households in 12 markets in Asia)

Lifestyle diseases a key challenge

Source : Swiss Re Asia’s Health protection gap

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The optimists view for 2035

research will bear fruit

Obesity

Ferocious rate of change: “health care has changed as much over the last 150 years, as it will over the next 25 years to 2035.“ Richard Worzel, Futurist, 2010

Telegraph UK, 2015

Type 1 Diabetes

Wall Street Pit, May 2017

Alzheimer’sSunday Express, May 2017

CNBC, Jan 2017

Cancer

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The empowered consumer is the agent of change

Prediction: by 2035 more health advice will be directly through the mobile than from face –to-face interaction with healthcare professionals

Opportunity

• AI enabled advice• Wellness programs• More opportunities to

influence customer behaviour

• Rebalancing the healthcare eco-system

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Digital adoption well underway in healthcare

Source : Bond / Mary Meeker internet trends 2019

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Digital adoption well underway in healthcare

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Patient power is building as adoption increases

“by 2030 use of health apps will be almost universal”

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Example of the technologically empowered

consumer

Prediction : AI will be part of the majority of current patient doctor consultations by 2035 . Likely both patients and doctors will use it

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Health and insurance services

“Digital First” changes healthcare and insurance

Digital search

• Doctors and agents have lost their position as ‘sole gatekeepers’ of knowledge in their respective domains

• Consumers will have more control

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The cost of collecting data is falling ..

And new therapies emerge

Prediction: by 2035 anyone who wants their DNA to be sequenced will be able to do so. Most will choose to do so … because of the then proven preventative health benefits

Trending to cents?

How far will CRISPR go?

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• Elimination of genes associated with diseases or infirmities

• Potential to enhance / alter human attributes by design

• Standardize the human genome reducing variability at a

population level

• Decision to cover cost of Gene Editing procedures under

Health insurance

• Use of DNA profiling for determination of insurance cover

Gene editing: Insurance implications

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Source : Bond / Mary Meeker internet trends 2019

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Predictive healthcare analytics in 2035

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Prediction: proven value of analytics will drive IoT adoption by consumers. Simple message to patients “No data = worse health outcome”

• Real time alerts on key vitals• Risk analysis on admission• Second opinion assistance routine

in all areas• Vital sign monitoring during

admissions• Precise & personalised medicine• Risk assessed for readmission• Routine use in drug discovery

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Electronic health records – happening

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Source : Bond / Mary Meeker internet trends 2019

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Exponential medical knowledge curve

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… But regulations have not changed significantly

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Genetic knowledge advances medical science

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The virtualisation of healthcare management in 2035

Prediction: all providers will be connected, and claims will be seamless (really ☺)

• Single source of truth available on a real-time basis

• Fraud , waste & abuse minimised

• Number of networks consolidated – all will inter-operate

• Global standard for sharing data will emerge

Cloud based networks are routine

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Healthcare insurers in 2035 will be operationally excellent

Distributed ledgers will beroutine

Smart rules + AI will eliminate >75% of FWA

Virtual avatars will be commonplace. AI to human interfaces will need to be seamless

Customer service will be truly multi-channel

Underwriting and pricing will be fast, automated ,comprehensive & ….regulated

Prediction: all of these innovations will be routine by 2035

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Big Tech is well positioned and investing

Source : Bond / Mary Meeker internet trends 2019

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Big Tech is well positioned

Source : Bond / Mary Meeker internet trends 2019

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It is not just big tech: There is an enormous wave

of innovation

Source : CB Insights digital healthcare start-ups

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Investment is occurring and will continue to be madeUS

Source : Rock health digital health funding 2019

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Investment is occurring and will continue to be madeASIA

Source : Galen Growth / Pharmaphorum

US$5 billion fundingin Asia in 2019

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Video Template

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Hospital care in 2030McKinsey

Video link

Possible discussion points for Weekly Discussion group / Things to think about

Duration: 4-5 mins

• Do you think surgery will be fully automated (with

human assistance)?

• How fast will be the move to medical healthcare in the

home?

TDI viewing Tip: a view of hospital care in the future

Source : McKinsey healthcare in 2030

• What about the changing skills needed by healthcare

professionals?