Leonie Haimson, Class Size MattersJune 2014

UNMET NEED FOR SEATS IN NEW 2015-2019 PROPOSED CAPITAL PLAN

INCLUDING CITYWIDE CLASS SIZE AND OVERCROWDING DATA

School Utilization Rates at critical levels• Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six years. More than 480,000 students

citywide are in extremely overcrowded buildings.

• Elementary schools avg. building utilization “target” rates at 97.4%; median at 102%. High schools are not far behind at 95.2%.

• High ES rates in all boroughs, including D10 and D11 in the Bronx 108% and 105.6%, respectively.

• In Queens, D24 (120.6%), D25 (109.7%), D26 (110%), D27 (106.1%), and D30 (107.3%) all extremely overcrowded.

• At the MS level, D20 in Brooklyn, D24, and D25 in Queens have building utilization rates over 95%.

• Queens high school buildings have avg. utilization rate of 110.7% and Staten Island high school buildings 103.2%.

Data source: Blue Book target utilization rates 2012-2013

Average Utilization Rates City-Wide 2012-2013

*Calculated by dividing building enrollment by the target capacity

Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book

Average Utilization Rates in District 28 compared to City-Wide 2012-2013

Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

97.4%

80.9%

95.2%

Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats• Proposed capital plan has (at most) 38,754 seats – and this if

Cuomo’s “Smart School” bond act is approved. (806 more seats funded only for design)

• Plan admits real need of 49,245 (though doesn’t explain how this figure was derived).

• DOE’s consultants project enrollment increases of 60,000-70,000 students by 2021

• At least 30,000 seats needed to alleviate current overcrowding for just those districts that average above 100%.

• Conclusion: real need for seats at least 100,000.

Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats part II• These figures do not capture overcrowding at neighborhood level, including

schools with K waiting lists, or need to expand pre-K, reduce class size, restore cluster rooms, or provide space for charters as required in new state law.

• Does not capture need to replace trailers with capacity of more than 10,890 seats.

• Though DOE counts only 7,158 students attending class in TCUs, actual number is far higher & likely over 10,000.

• Also, DOE utilization figures underestimate actual overcrowding according to most experts and Chancellor, who has appointed a “Blue Book” taskforce to improve them.

• Revised utilization formula should be aligned to smaller classes, dedicated rooms for art, music, special education services, and more.

Class sizes have increased for six years in a row • Despite provisions in 2007 state law requiring NYC reduce class sizes, classes in K-3 in 2013-

2014 largest since 1998; in grades 4-8 largest since 2002.

• K-3 average class size was 24.9 (Gen Ed, inclusion & gifted classes) compared to 20.9 in 2007, increase of 19%.

• In grades 4-8, the average class size was 26.8, compared to 25.1 in 2007 –increase of 6.8%.

• HS “core” academic classes, class size average 26.7, up slightly since 2007.  (Yet DOE’s measure of HS class sizes is inaccurate and their methodology changes, so estimates cannot be relied upon.)

• Averages do NOT tell the whole story – as more than 330,000 students were in classes of 30 or more in 2013-2014.

• There were 40,268 kids in K-3 in classes of 30 or more in 2013-2014 – an increase of nearly 14% compared to the year before. 

• The number of teachers decreased by over 5000 between 2007-2010, according to the Mayor’s Management Report, despite rising enrollment.

1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

24.90

23.25

22.3822.10

21.6821.5521.2821.1221.0020.9021.40

22.10

22.90

23.8924.46

24.86

K-3 Class sizes are the largest since 1998 General ed, CTT and gifted: data from IBO

1998-2005; DOE 2006-2013

1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010-11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

28.1

27.527.2 27.4

27.0

26.726.4

25.925.6

25.125.3

25.8

26.326.6 26.7 26.8

4th – 8th grade Class sizes largest since 2002 Gened, CTT and gifted: data from IBO 1998-

2005; DOE 2006-2013

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY 13

79,109 79,021

76,795

74,958

72,787

73,844

Total no. of teachers dropped by 5,000 since 2007-8

data source: Mayor's Management Report

Class sizes citywide have increased in grades K-3 by 19.1% since 2007 and are now far above Contracts for Excellence goals

Baseline 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-1418

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

2120.7

20.520.3

20.119.9 19.9 19.9

21.0 20.9

21.4

22.1

22.9

23.9

24.5

24.9

C4E goals

Citywide actual

stud

ents

per

sec

tion

Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

Class sizes citywide in grades 4-8 have increased by 6.8% since 2007 and are now far above Contracts for Excellence goals

Baseline 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-1418

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

25.6

24.824.6

23.8

23.322.9 22.9 22.9

25.625.1 25.3

25.826.3

26.6 26.726.8

C4E target

Citywide actual

Stud

ents

per

sec

tion

Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

Class sizes city-wide have increased in core HS classes as well, by 2.3% since 2007, though the DOE data is unreliable*

*DOE’s class size data is unreliable & their methodology for calculating HS averages have changed year to year

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-1424

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

27

26

25.7

25.2

24.8

24.5 24.5 24.5

26.126.2

26.626.5

26.426.3

26.7

C4E TargetCitywide Actual

Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

At least 30,000 seats currently needed just in districts averaging over 100%

QUEENS HS STATEN ISLAND HS0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,0007,295

518

# of Seats Needed in all districts with building utilization rates higher than

100% at HS level

*These figures are the difference between capacity & enrollment in the organizational target # in 2012-2013 Blue Book

D10 D11 D15 D20 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D30 D310

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1,929

1,237

1,822

3,912

189

5,318

1,637

1,2311,451 1,476

2,279

# of Seats Needed in all districts with ES building utilization rates

higher than 100%

Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

Manhattan Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 High Schools0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

87.1%

97.9%95.3%

88.8%92.3% 94.3%

68.4%

86.9% 90.7%

75.8%78.5% 76.3%

0.894

ESMS

Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

Bronx Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013

D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 High Schools-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

86.6%

99.4%

88.9%

108.0% 105.6%

93.9%

82.7% 82.2%76.1%

91.0%

80.5%

70.9%

0.894

ESMS

Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

Brooklyn Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013

D13 D14 D15 D16 D17 D18 D19 D20 D21 D22 D23 D32 High Schools

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

74.1%79.6%

110.8%

66.5%

76.0%72.0%

81.4%

118.9%

95.5%101.0%

70.0%

79.0%

68.7%65.1%

85.6%

59.1%

74.1%

62.3%

74.3%

96.4%

79.5% 80.0%

65.3%60.0%

0.886

ESMS

Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

Queens Average Building Utilization Rates 2012-2013 by District

D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D29 D30 High Schools0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%120.6%

109.7% 110.0%106.1%

98.0% 95.6%

107.3%

95.7%98.6%

89.5% 87.5%84.5%

75.3%

91.0%

1.107

ESMS

Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

Staten Island Average Building Utilization Rates 2012-2013

Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110% 108.0%

84.5%

1.032

Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

Enrollment projections suggest many MORE districts will require additional seats in future• The 2015-2019 capital plan has 31,754 seats plus 2,100 full-day pre-K seats

and 4,900 seats for class size reduction, if bond issue passes.

• When compared to the enrollment projections by Statistical Forecasting and Grier Partnership through 2021, many districts will require more seats than the Capital Plan has allotted.

• Grier Partnership projects enrollment growth at 70,341, Statistical Forecasting at 60,230, and estimates from Housing Starts are 51,727.

• The following slides have citywide & district-by-district for enrollment growth from SF, GP & housing start estimates, compared to new seats in the capital plan.

City-wide Enrollment Projections K-8 vs. New Seats in Capital Plan *Statistical Forecasting does not include

D75 students; K-8 Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as Small PS and PS/IS and includes 4,900 seats for class size reduction if Bond issue passes.

Statist

ical F

oreca

sting

2011

-2021

Grier P

artne

rship

2011

-2021

Housin

g Star

ts, E

stimate

d Grow

th 20

12-20

21

Capita

l Plan

, New

Sea

ts 20

15-20

190

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

40,589

51,954

38,244 36,654

Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k

City-wide Enrollment Projections HS vs. New Seats in Capital Plan

Statist

ical F

oreca

sting

2011

-2021

Grier P

artne

rship

2011

-2021

Housin

g Star

ts, E

stimate

d Grow

th 20

12-20

21

Capita

l Plan

, New

Sea

ts 20

15-20

190

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000 19,46118,387

13,483

3,102

*Statistical Forecasting does not include D75 students; HS Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as IS/HS and does not include seats for class size reduction

Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k

Unmet need in Queens HS especially acute • DOE’s utilization figures indicate a shortage of 7295 seats in Queens

HS currently

• These figures underestimate actual level of overcrowding, according to most principals.

• DOE consultants project an increase in Queens high school enrollment of 12,567- 12,980 by 2021.

• Yet only 2,802 Queens HS seats proposed in five-year plan, a shortage of more than 17,000 seats.

Kindergarten Waitlists in many neighborhoods

Man Bronx Brooklyn Queens SI0

100200300400500600700800900

1000

751

112

679

883

163

462

211

720

942

47

569

114

622

946

110

# of Kids on waitlists for Kindergarten 2011-2013 by Borough

201120122013

2 3 4 5 6 8 9 101112131415161718192021222425262728293031320%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

38%33%

8%5% 5%7%

18%

6%5%

43%

4%8%

37%

23%

7%

31%31%

14%

8%

15%

4%

31%

13%

% of Schools w/ Waitlists by District* 2013

Districts 1, 7, 23 not included as they are "choice districts")2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

499

1885

2588 23822361

Zoned Kindergarten wait lists, citywide 2009-13

2014 Kindergarten Wait Lists (Citywide)

• According to DOE, the wait list for zoned Kindergarten spots in 2014 is smaller citywide than in 2013.

• There were 1,242 zoned students on wait lists as of April 21, 2014.

• 19 of the 32 school districts currently have at least one school with a waiting list.

• There are 63 schools that have zoned wait lists. 20 are in Brooklyn, 17 in Queens, 11 in Manhattan, 11 in The Bronx, and 4 in Staten Island.

• The number of zoned students on these wait lists and the methodology for determining waitlists has yet to be revealed – unclear if same as last year.

New charter provisions passed in state budget• Any charter co-located in a NYC school building cannot be evicted and has veto powers

before they leave the building – even if they are expanding and squeezing out NYC public school students. 

• This includes any charter co-location agreed to before 2014 – including the three Success

charter schools approved right before Bloomberg left office.

• Any new or charter school in NYC adding grade levels must be “provided access to facilities” w/in five months of asking for it.

• If they don’t like the space offered by the city, they can appeal to the Commissioner King, who is a former charter school director and has never ruled against a charter school. 

• NO FISCAL IMPACT statement or analysis accompanying this bill.

• In addition, the state will provide all charter schools with per-pupil funding increases, amounting to $500 over the next 3 years and provide them funding for pre-K.

Charter space provisions ONLY apply to NYC

• Upstate legislators fought off making charters eligible for state facilities funds – which would have been better for NYC.

• Yet legislators did not block these onerous provisions for NYC , where we have the most expensive real estate & the most overcrowded schools in the state.

• If the DOE doesn’t offer charter schools free space, the city  must pay for a school’s rent in private space or give them an extra 20 percent over their operating aid every year going forward.

• After the city spends $40 million per year on charter rent, the state will begin chipping in 60% of additional cost.

How many charters will there be entitled to free space?• We have 183 charters in NYC, 119 in co-located space.

• 22 new charters are approved to open next year or the year after, all entitled to free space.

• 52 additional charter schools left to approve until we reach the cap raised in 2010 – with legislative approval – all entitled to free space.

• Any new or existing co-located charter can also be authorized to expand grade levels through HS and will be entitled to free space.

• DOE will be paying $5.4 M in annual rent for four years for 3 Success Academy schools that only have 484 students next year – at a cost of $11,000 per student.

• This doesn’t count the unknown renovation costs in these 3 schools, also paid for by the city.

Blue book data & Utilization formula inaccurate & underestimates actual level of overcrowding

• Class sizes in grades 4-12 larger than current averages & far above goals in city’s C4E plan & will likely force class sizes upwards

• Doesn’t require full complement of cluster rooms or special needs students to have dedicated spaces for their mandated services

• Doesn’t properly account for students now housed in trailers in elementary and middle schools.

• Doesn’t account for co-locations which subtract about 10% of total space and eat up classrooms with replicated administrative & cluster rooms. Small schools use space less efficiently

• Instructional footprint shrank full size classroom only 500 sq. feet min., risking building code/safety violations at many schools as 20-35 sq feet per student required.

• Special ed classrooms defined as only 240-499 sq ft, thought State Ed guidelines call for 75 sq ft per child with special needs; classrooms this small would allow only 3- 7 students.

Comparison of class sizes in Blue book compared to current averages & Contract for excellence goals

Grade levels UFT Contract class size limits

Target class sizes in "blue

book"

Current average class sizes

C4E class Size goals

How many sq ft per student required in classrooms

according to NYC building code

Kindergarten 25 20 23 19.9 35

1st-3rd 32 20 25.5 19.9 204th-5th 32 28 26 22.9 20

6th-8th 30 (Title I)

33 (non-Title I)28 27.4 22.9 20

HS (core classes) 34 30 26.7* 24.5 20

*DOE reported HS class sizes unreliable

Some Recommendations• 38,000 seats in capital plan is too low, esp. given existing overcrowding,

projected enrollment, pre-K expansion, class size reduction, new mandates to provide charter schools with space

• Also very low as compared to Mayor’s plan to create or preserve 200,000 affordable housing units.

• Council should expand the seats in five year capital plan.

• Commission an independent analysis by City Comptroller, IBO or other agency.

• Adopt reforms to planning process so that schools are built along with housing in future through mandatory inclusionary zoning, impact fees etc.

• Over half of all states and 60% of large cities have impact fees, requiring developers to pay for costs of infrastructure improvements, including schools.