Leonam dos Santos Guimarães

FLEET AGING

60 NPPS being built in 15 countries

ANGRA 3

2009 - 2016: 46 new connections to the grid

YANGJIANG-4 08 Jan, 2017

GENERATION CHANGE: II -> III -> III+ -> IV

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EMERGENT COUTRIES

Brazil: 2.400 kwh/y per inhabitant

Portugal: 4.800

China: 1.900

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: Boosting prosperity is the way to care for our planet

CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASSES EMISSION CONTROL

Source: Derived from IPCC and IEA

Decarbonising the power sector is key to meet the 2°C target Beyond uncertainties of future developments, three fundamental

actions need to be undertaken simultaneously:

Massive deployment of all low carbon source of electricity: -renewables, nuclear, CCS, switch from coal to gas transitionally

Improve efficiency of power plants

Apply stringent EE measures to moderate electricity demand 32%

55%

85%

70 EJ

90 EJ

110 EJ

2012 2030 2050

Global electricity demand in

2050: +60% relative to 2012

Share of low carbon electricity in

2050: 2.7 times 2012 level

Only by 2030, the transition in line with the 2°C target requires a threefold increase in clean energy investments more than $ 1 000 billion on average annually

including $ 81 billion on nuclear

CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASSES EMISSION CONTROL

Manaus

Brasília

São Paulo Itaipu

Porto Alegre

Fortaleza

Salvador

Rio de Janeiro

Belo

Horizonte

Recife

Angra

4.000 km

HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION INTERCONNECTED NATIONAL SYSTEM:

CONTINENTAL DIMMENSIONS – HYDRO DOMINANCE

HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION

• the expansion of a large interconnected power

system, with significant predominance of

hydro renewable primary source requires an

increasing thermal contribution due to:

• gradual exhaustion of the economic and

environmentally viable hydro potential

• loss of self-regulation capacity due to lower

water storage capacity in the reservoirs

related to the system load growth.

HYDRO POTENTIAL TECHNICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE

150/180 GW from 260 GW (100 GW already used)

Hidro

EXPANSION POST-2030

• Mix: natural gas (depending on the amount and cost of pre-salt), coal (depending on the

viability of CCS and clean coal) and nuclear (public acceptance)

• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar) and expansion of energy efficiency programs

(increasing marginal expansion costs) will be an essential supplement

UNIQUE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF

NEW RENEWABLES IN BRAZIL:

• Wind – Solar match

• Wind – Hydro match

• Energy storage in reservoirs

• Saving water and

• Enhancing hydroelectric load

following and self-regulation

(long term) capabilities

HYDRO FOSSILE Gas

Coal

Oil

FISSILE Nuclear

OTHER RENEWABLES Biomass

Wind

Solar

NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL: TODAY

ANGRA 2 PWR

Power: 1.350 MW

Technology: Siemens/KWU

Operation start: Jan/2001

ANGRA 1 PWR

Power: 657 MW

Technology: Westinghouse

Operation start: Jan/1985

NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL: TOMORROW

ANGRA 2 PWR

Power: 1.405 MW

Technology: AREVA

Operation start: Jan/2022

NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS

2) Southeast 2.000 MW

1) Northeast 2.000 MW

EPRI SITTING CRITERIA

Geographic Information Systems

National Energy Plan 2030

NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL: FUTURE

NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS

Roadmap

Site Data Levantamento de campo

Outros dados

PPE Plant Parameter Envelope

2017-2018

ESP

Early Site Permit

Environmental and Nuclear site

licensing independent of vendor

Vendor Qualification

Brazilian Utility Requirement

BUR

2019-2020

PPA

Power Purchase Agreement

Definition and Decison to Build

.

2021 - 2022

Site Selection Which Sites will be studied in

detail

2014 - 2017

RFI

Request for Information

Request as per IAEA and NEI guides

Additional data with technical details

Siti

ng

Tech

no

logy

AUCTION

Licensing

Start

BUSINESS MODEL

NUCLEAR POTENCIAL

ATLAS

Feasibility Soc-Eco Impacts

CURRENT ACTIVITIES

• Plant Parameter Envelope

– RFIs to suppliers

– Early Site Permit Report

• Brazilian Utility

Requirements

– URD/EUR Model

• Business Model

– Public-Private Partnership

• Economic and Financial

Feasibility

• Social and Economic

Impacts

NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL: FUTURE

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

INSPIRED BY

TVA (EUA)

Pesquisa recente no BRASIL: Senado Federal ABR/2015 PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE

BUILDING NEW NUCLEAR THE CHALLENGES AHEAD

Public attitudes • Government leadership

• Public opinion at the national level

• Local level opinion

• Fukushima

• Building public support

• Trust, understanding of risk, and

risk governance

• Community benefit

Technology Selection • In operation x construction x design

• FOAK x NOAK

• Passive x Active Safety

Financing new nuclear • Where will the money come from?

• Barriers to raising finance

• Alternative approaches

Supply chain and skills • Potential for bottlenecks and delays

• Opportunities for Brazilian businesses

• Skills

Business Model • Market insertion (commercialization)

• Ownership of nuclear power stations

• State x Private

• National x Foreigner

Country M# PIBp/#

tCO2/#

(%)

GW

TWh kWh/#

47 8900

90%

1.4

1150 53

14

15 7600

93%

2.1

1250 18

5

29 9200

80%

1.5

1300 37

9

10 4500

70%

1.5

650 6

2

16 18000

99%

6.0

3900 62

17

29 11350

99%

5.4

3400 98

28

197 10300

98%

2.1

2500 480

114

7 5300

94%

0.8

1300 8

9

3 13300

97%

2.3

2900 10

3

41 15500

95%

4.5

3050 121

33

109 13400

93%

4.0

2300 250

62

11 5900

86%

2.5

1350 15

6

590 10400

91%

2.7

2150 1250

320

Different economic, energy and social realities

LATIN AMERICA CONTEXT

NUCLEAR IN LATIN AMERICA: MEXICO

One NPP: Laguna Verde Veracruz State Operator: Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) Two Units GE BWR-5 reactors 4% installed capacity

≈ 1600 MWe (after the uprate)

NUCLEAR IN LATIN AMERICA: ARGENTINA

NPP Atucha I

1974

PHWR (Siemens)

357 MWe

NPP Embalse

1984

PTHWR (Candu)

648 MWe

Co-60 production

(3rd in world)

NPP Atucha II

2015

PHWR (Siemens)

745 MWe

LATIN AMERICA ENERGY SCENARIOS

LATIN AMERICA ENERGY SCENARIOS

LATIN AMERICA ENERGY SCENARIOS

“Nuclear remains very limited in LAC region due to

lack of institutional capacity and high capital costs”

LATIN AMERICA NUCLEAR ENERGY SCENARIOS

108 92

60

112.1 118

140 157

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2020 2030 2050

GW

(e)

Year

North America

5 7 13 4.8 6 13

55

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2020 2030 2050

GW

(e)

Year

Latin America

99

63

27

113.7 112 112 121

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2020 2030 2050

GW

(e)

Year

Western Europe

1.9 1.9 7 1.9 1.9 6.5

38

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2020 2030 2050

GW

(e)

Year

Africa

12 25.9

48

6.9 17.4

43.8

94

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2020 2030 2050

GW

(e)

Year

Middle East & South Asia

98.7

131.8 149

87.1

122.9

219

355

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2020 2030 2050

GW

(e)

Year

Far East

55 64 63

49.7 63

94

126

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2020 2030 2050

GW

(e)

Year

Eastern Europe

0 5 4 18

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2020 2030 2050

GW

(e)

Year

South East Asia & the Pacific

Current Capacity

Low Estimate

High Estimate

Leonam Guimarães