Lent Term Seminars 2012

London and the High Speed Rail debate:

How do we getthe Right Line?Mark Bostock | 20 February 2012

“ I'm in no doubt that the key challenge is to ensure the transport networks can support the success of

one, the growing urban catchments; two, key inter-urban corridors; and three, key international gateways.

These should be the economic priorities for the UK because they are both highly productive and growing. These key transport links are heavily used today and show congestion and reliability problems, which will get worse. These are the places where transport constraints hold back economic growth.”

 Eddington Transport Study, 1 December 2006

“ This, by any standards is an extraordinary tale: a story of a grand engineering project in a country that distrusts grand projects”The Right Line

BR Proposal vs Arup Route

The Arup Route

…it had two unique advantages: it demolished no houses…

…and could potentially bring huge regeneration benefits to the blighted areas through which it would run.

The Arup Alignment……a deliverable proposition…for public benefit

The HS1 Route

International ObjectiveHigh Speed London to Continental Europe

Commuter ObjectiveIncreased capacity, speed and quality

Overall Transport ObjectivesModal shift via park and rideNew transport spine for East Thames corridorPotential for further high speed routes to the north

Development objectivesOpen up the Thames Gateway for regenerationRegenerate the derelict inner city areas

Public Benefit Case

Financial 3.4 (Net rail revenues)

Transport user benefits 3.8(Time savings and reduced congestion)

Wider economic benefits 3.8(Enabling central London growth, reduced travel costs and improving labour markets)

Regeneration 10.0 (15,000 homes, 70,000 jobs) (Supporting Government social and economic development public objectives along Route)

Present value (60 years) 17.6

HS1 capital cost and commuter services 7.3

HS1 Benefits

Source Colin Buchen, Economic Impact of HS1 for LCR January 2009

£ billion (2008 prices)

Original London Connections: 1989

“ The UK approach to infrastructure investment has in general been timid, uncoordinated, incremental, wasteful in it’s procurement and insufficiently targeted to supporting balanced and sustainable growth in the economy”

Foreword, National Infrastructure Plan, HM Treasury, October 2010

Infrastructure Investment

London Airports with basic infrastructure

Airport charges index and distribution charges

Airport charges index and distribution charges

Taking the airport to the railway

Original through Heathrow Proposal

“ As a first stage, we have asked the company to develop a proposal for an entirely new line between London and the west midlands; that would enable faster journeys to other destinations in the north of England and Scotland, using both existing lines and a new high-speed rail network.”

 “ I see a strong case for this new line approaching

London via a Heathrow international hub station on the Great Western line, to provide a direct four-way interchange between the airport, the new north-south line, existing Great Western rail services and Crossrail, into the heart of London.”

15th January 2009:Secretary of State Hoon’s statement to the House of Commons

“ I see a strong case for this new line approaching London via a Heathrow international hub station on the Great Western line, to provide a direct four-way interchange between the airport, the new north-south line, existing Great Western rail services and Crossrail, into the heart of London”

15th January 2009: Secretary of State Hoon’s statement to the House of Commons

The Adonis Alignment: March 2010

High Speed Rail Key Dates

28 June 2007 Ruth Kelly appointed SoS Transport (15 Months)

9 September Conservative Party supports Arup Proposals

3 October 2008 Geoffrey Hoon appointed SoS (8 Months)

15 January 2009 R3 supported by Labour Government

HS2 Ltd set up to investigate high speed London/West Midlands

February 2009 Conservative Party confirms its support for Arup proposals

5 June 2009 The Lord Adonis appointed SoS (10 months)

December 2009 HS2 hands its report to the government

11 March 2010 High Speed 2 report and supporting studies published with the government's command paper on high-speed rail

Mawhinney Review Established

Heathrow Hub Proposals

The Heathrow Hub Connections

High Speed Rail Key Dates

6 May 2010 General Election – Conservative/Lib victory R3 cancelled

12 May 2010 Philip Hammond appointed SoS (16 months)

21 July 2010 Mawhinney Review Reports

4 October 2010 Government route for consultation announced

20 December 2010 Government published a slightly revised line of route for public consultation

14 October 2011 Justine Greening appointed SoS

1 November 2011 House of Commons Transport Select Committee Report Published

12 December 2011 Labour Party supports Arup proposals

10 January 2012 Government Route announced

The Government Alignment 2010

HS2 Alignment: Jan 2012

The two propositions

Indicates tunneled route

Government’s proposal Heathrow Hub

The two propositions

Government’s proposal Heathrow Hub

HS2 route designed to bypass Heathrow - subsequent retrofits attempt to provide missing Heathrow, Great Western Main Line (& HS1) connections

Aligned with 2009 cross-party political consensus – direct connection between Heathrow, Great Western Main Line, Crossrail, HS2 (& UK motorway network)

Phasing Phase 0 - 2021

Phase 1 – 2026

Phase 2 - 2033 Phase 3 – ?

Phase 0 – 2018

Phase 1 – 2022

Phase 2 – 2026

WesternConnection to Heathrow from GWML relief lines

HS2 London to Birmingham via Old Oak Common(link to HS1)

HS2 spur (branchline) from HS2 toHeathrow

HS2 spurextended to form loop to HS2 at Old Oak Common

Heathrow Hub on Great Western Main Line, served by all intercity, interregionaland Crossrailtrains

HS2 connects HS1,London, Heathrow Hub & existing Chiltern, WestCoast and GW MainLines

HS2 extended toBirmingham, WestMidlands and the North

Cost £bn(Gov.est.) exc RAB funding

£0.7

= £0.7

£16.5 + £0.7

= £17.2

£2.5-3.9 (spur) + £17.2

= £19.7 - 21.1

£1.5-1.6 (loop) + £19.7-21.1

= £21.2 - 22.7

£1.25 (GWML Hub)- £1.25 (HHL funded)

= £0

£16.5 (HS2) + £3.0 (M40 corridor via Heathrow) -£1.0 (HS2 Hub HHL funded) - £1.0 (omit Old Oak)

= £17.5 (£16.6 using Arup estimate)

Distance 156.8km 167.2km

Journey time(Gov.est.)

London-Birmingham 49m with OOC stop (all trains call)

London-Birmingham 48m non-stop, 52m Hub stop

Heathrow growing within existing limits

“BAA is forecasting that the load factor will increase from 73% to 78.5% by 2020 and the average number of seats per aircraft from 195 in 2007 to 240 in 2020” - Appendix 4.2, Competition Commission Final Report 2009“61% of passenger travel emissions generated by kiss & fly, taxi and minicab journeys which all generate four trips per return flight” – Heathrow 2009 Carbon Footprint & Surface Access Strategy, BAA

Within existing limits (480,000 ATM’s, no mixed mode, 2 runways, 42,000 car park cap, 147km2 noise contour)

Per annum figures Actual 2009 (CAA) Forecast 2020 Forecast 2030 (full A380)

Commercial ATM’s 466,000 480,000 480,000

Total terminal pax 65.8m 90.2m 95m

Average pax/ATM 141 188 198

Origin +Destination pax 40.9m 55.9m (Assume 2009 %) 58.9m (Assume2009 %)

Public transport modal share

40% 41% (With Crossrail) 41.5% (Old Oak Common)

Public transport pax 16.4m 22.9m 24.4m

Private vehicle pax 24.5m 33.0m 34.5m

Additional private vehicle pax from 2009 + 8.5m (35%) +10.0m (41%)

HS2 Alignment: Jan 2012

'Frontier Economics. 'Connecting for growth:the role of Britain's hub airport in economic recovery': A Report prepared for Heathrow, September 2011'

GDP contribution Employment

Heathrow aviation £3.4 billion 50,000

Long haul visitor spending £6.1 billion 130,000

Stop-over passenger spending £1.6 billion 40,000

Total £11.1 billion 220,000

The benefits to the British economy of aviation at Heathrow

Note1: Our estimate of employment is of direct employment in the aviation sector as defined by Annual Business Inquiry. There are around 76,00 people employed at the airport and at Waterside across aviation and related sectors, such as hotels, catering, and other transport providers.Note 2: This table does not include the impact of spending in the UK by visitors arriving on short haul flights.

An integrated approach?

1980s BR point to point approach to CTRL

1990s HS1 success in taking wider view of transport and environment

2000s European experience in integrating rail/air and twinning road/rail

2010s European Commission transport policy mandates integrated intermodal approach

2010s HS2 ignores both experience and policy

Conclusion

Support Europe’s leading Hub airport

Full integration between aviation, classic rail and High Speed Rail

Consensus on long term strategy and funding

Democratic legitimacy

London competitiveness