1

Howtodefineandsecureafair,ambitiousandlegallybindingoutcomefromCopenhagen

• Copenhagenhastobetheplaceandthemomenttostrikeadealonthefair,ambitiousand

bindinglegalagreementuponwhichcommitmentsbyallPartiesmustrestinordertosecurethesurvivalofcountries,culturesandecosystems.

• Achievingthisisprimarilyuptoindustrializedcountries,whoneedtounlockkeyroadblocks.

• PoliticalagreementsreachedonthekeyissuesneedtobecapturedalreadyinCopenhagenaslegaltextofalegalinstrumentthatwillrequireratification.

• HavingonlyasetofseparateCOPandCMPdecisionsasanoutcomefromCopenhagenwouldbeunacceptable.

• Keyactorsintheprocess,includingtheupcomingDanishCOPpresidencymustchangetheircurrentstrategiesandstartpursuingalegallybindingoutcomefromCopenhagen.

• ThemandateofthePreCOPtotheCOPPresidencyandKPandLCAchairsmustbetofacilitateadoptionoflegalinstrument(s)inCopenhagen.

WhatisattheheartofthepoliticalstruggleforCopenhagen?InBarcelonaYvoDeBoeroutlinedhisplanfortheCopenhagenoutcome,suggestingthattherewasn’tenoughtimetocompleteatreatyortreatiesanymore.However,itisclearthatthisplanBconsistingofanelaboratelistofCOPdecisionsandannexeswouldrequirenolessworkortime.Inrealitywhatislackingistrustamongparties.HeadsofStatesandministersmustensureasaprioritythatCOP15resolvesthekeyunderlyingconflicts.OtherwisetheCopenhagenoutcomeaswellasanyprocessfollowingfromitwillbedoomedtofail.

1) Avoidingcatastrophicclimatechangeisnotpossibleunlessallbigemitterscommittoambitiousaction.However,thedifferentiatedresponsibilitiesmustremainclear.Industrializedcountriesmusttaketheirfairshareoftheglobaleffortrequiredtostaywellbelow2degreeswarmingandagreeontheirQuantifiedEmissionReductionCommitments,guidedbytheViennaUNFCCCconclusionstheyadoptedtwoyearsago.1Thiswillenablemajordevelopingcountriestobringtheirambitiousdomesticactionsunderalegallybindingtreaty.

2) InordertosecuretheKyotoProtocolanditsarchitecture,theIndustrializedcountriesthathaveratifiedtheKyotoProtocolmusttakeonasecondcommitmentperiod,andtheUnitedStatesmusttakeoncommitmentsthatarecomparableinambitionandlegalnaturetothoseoftheKyotoratifyers,inordertoensurethateffortsamongindustrializedcountriesarecomparable.

1 Atthe4thsessionoftheAWG‐KPinViennaAugust2007PartiesrecognisedthatachievingIPCC’sloweststabilisationlevelswouldrequireAnnexIPartiesasagrouptoreduceemissionsinarangeof25–40percentbelow1990levelsby2020.Theyalsonotedthatthisrangedoesnottakeintoaccountlifestylechangesorwideruseofflexibilitymechanismswhichbothhavepotentialofincreasingthereductionrange.PartiesconsideredthatthisrangeprovidesusefulinitialparametersfortheoveralllevelofambitionofAnnexItargets,andthatitwouldbereviewedinthelightofotherinformation,suchasonlower(than450ppm)stabilizationscenarios.Online:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/awg4/eng/04.pdf

2

3) Faststartfinanceisnotenough.Vulnerablecountriesarealreadyforcedtoadapttoproblemstheydidn’tcause,andpayingahighpriceforitbothinmonetarytermsandwiththeirhomesandlives.Whileimmediatefundingisimportant,Copenhagenneedstounlockthefundamentalissuesrelatedtolong‐termfinancesolutions,namelythescale,assessedcontributions,innovativesources,governanceanddisbursementofindustrializedcountries’financecommitments.Thismoneyneedstobenewandadditional,andbecommittedandprovidedontopofdevelopedcountries’aidtargets(0.7%ODA)including,tosupportmitigationandadaptationandalsosolutionsthataddressinsurance,lossanddamage.

Onceagreementhasbeenfoundonthesekeymatters,agreementontheglobalambitionandotherfundamentalmattersincludingthelegalformoftheagreedoutcomecanbefound.Hence,whatisneededisnotmoretimebutpoliticalwill.Whatdefinesacomprehensiveandlegallybindingoutcome?InCopenhagenHeadsofStatesandministershavetosecureclarityonthefollowingkeyaspectsofacomprehensive,legallybindingoutcome:1)Resolveallcrunchissues:CometoagreementonallsubstantiveandlegalissuesoftheBaliActionPlan.

• TheCopenhagenoutcomehastoincludefullclarityontheglobalambition,mitigationfordevelopedcountries(economywidetargetsandlongtermplans)anddevelopingcountries(actionsandlongtermplans),financeandtechnologysupport(level,sources,institutions),andtheadaptation,REDD,andmaritime/aviationframeworksaswellasthebasicarchitectureforimplementation,thecomplianceregimeforindustrializedcountries(buildingontheKyotosystem)andfacilitationmechanismsfordevelopingcountries.

• Itneedstocoverasufficientlevelofdetailonintentionsandoutcome,soastonotallowforex‐postnegotiationthatcreatesloopholesweakeningtheagreedambition.

• Anyimportantunresolvedissuesmustnotbepostponed,astheywouldbesidelinediftheywerenotpartofthepackagedeal.

2)AgreementonwhateachPartyislegallycommittedtodo:ThisincludesthetypeandlevelofcommitmentofeachParty,decisionsoverthesystemofmeasuring,reportingandverificationofmitigationandfinancecommitmentsandactions,theroleofcomplianceandenforcement,includinginternationalstandardsforaccountingandcommitments,allofwhicharekeytotheinternationalarchitecture.Commitmentsthatequateonlyto“pledgeandreview”havelittlecredibilityandarenotacceptable.3)Agreementonthelegalfoundationandarchitecture:ThelegalfoundationoftheagreementneedstobedecidedinCopenhagen,namelybygivingclarityonwhichlegalinstrument(s)willbindpartiestotheircommitments.Importantly,theagreementonsubstanceneedstobecapturedintheformoftreatytext.ThelegaloutcomemustbuildonandenhancetheKyotoProtocolandtheConvention,butnotreplacethem.4)Anagreementthatcannotbereopened:TheobjectivehastobethattheagreementstruckinCopenhagenisnotopenforrenegotiation,onlyopentofurtherrefinementthatstrengthensthelegalagreement.Thismeansthatalso“entry‐in‐to‐force”languagewillbeimportanttoinclude.

3

Thereisnoconvincingargumenttobefoundastowhypostponinganyoftheaboveissuesbyhalfayearormorewouldinanywayincreasethelikelihoodofgettingabetteroutcome.HowtolockpoliticalagreementintolegalformAdoptionofprotocol(s)inCopenhagen:Themostsecure,legally&politicallysoundoutcomeofCopenhagenistheadoptionofthepoliticalagreementinformofratifiableandcompletetreatytextofalegalinstrument.Perourproposalfortheappropriateoveralllegalformthiswouldbealinkedtwo‐Protocoloutcome,consistingofanamendedKyotoProtocolandanewCopenhagenProtocol,accompaniedbyasetofCOPandCMPdecisions.Thisaddressesthecurrentpoliticalsituationbest(whilerecognizingtwoparallelinstrumentswouldproposesomelegalchallenges).Ifnecessary,detailscouldbefinalisedinformofCOPdecisionsduring2010.WhatwouldbeanunacceptableoutcomeofCopenhagenLeavingCopenhagenwithonlyapoliticaldeclarationorCOPdecision(s)wouldbeagravewasteofthemomentumoftheCopenhagenprocess,andanunacceptableoutcome.Thesameistrueforanylanguagethatleavesopenthequestionofwhatcountriesarecommittedto,orwhatthelegalnatureoftheircommitmentsare,TheDanishPresidencyisaimingfora“Copenhagenpoliticalagreement”withseriesof“politicalcommitments”,suggestingthatkeyfundamentalscouldbecapturedintolegalformonlyafterCopenhagen.Thisisarecipeforalongprocesswithunclearresults,whichwouldalsoriskthewholeKyotoProtocolwithitsarchitecture.Thisoptioniswaytooweakasaframeworkforafutureclimateregime.Itmustbetakenoffthetable.CountriescanandmustsolveallkeyissuesinCopenhagenandcapturetheagreementsintheframeworkoflegalinstrumentsunderboththeLCAandtheKP.TheuniquemomentumofCopenhagenmustbefullyutilizedtobreakthedeadlockVerystrongpoliticalmomentumhasbeenbuiltuparoundtheCopenhagensummit.Thousandsofjournalistsandtensofthousandsofengagedcitizenswillbepresenttowitnessworldleaderstomakethebreakthroughtheyhavepromisedonclimatechange.Itiscrucialtomakefulluseofthismoment,toreachdecisionsandtoexpresstheminlegaltextthatleavesnoroomforreinterpretationafterwards.Verycruciallythisappliesalsotothesharedvisionthatmustnotbefudgedintoapoliticaldeclaration.Thesharedvision,capturedinlegaltextunderbothtrackoutcomes,iswhattheworlddesperatelyneeds,recognisingtherighttosurvivalofallcultures,committingtokeepoverallwarmingasfarbelow2degreesaspossible,withaviewofreturningtobelow1.5Cassoonaspossible,andconsequentlypeakingglobalemissionsbetween2013‐2017andcapturingmainagreementsofallBaliActionBuildingblocks.NotagreeingtoalegallybindingoutcomeasdefinedinthisbriefingcanbeequatedwithPartiesnothavingmanagedtosolvethecrunchissuesthatmaintaingravemistrust.Currently,unlockingtheseissuesismainlyuptoindustrialisedcountries.Everyyearofdelaywillcostlives,butalsoeconomicallossesworthof500blnUSDperyearintheenergysectoralone,asassessedbytheIEA.