Lecture VI - swan.ewha.ac.krswan.ewha.ac.kr/lecture_6_s_korean_industry.pdf · WiBro/WIMax...

Lecture VIKorea’s Major Industries

Automobile IndustryLecture 6: South Korea’s Major Industries

The first Korean produced automobile in 1960s

Ulsan Hyundai Motor Plant

Automobile Industry

• Huge inter-industry relation:

steel, machinery, material, IT, BT, ET, ET, and so on.

• Representative capital intensive industry

• A new model’s R&D cost amounts to 300 Billion won

• The crucial industry that leads S. Korea’s economic growth

in 21st century

The first independently designed automobile: PONY

Forward and Backward Effects of Auto Industry

Front Industry

Rear Industry

Transport Industry Distribution & Maintenance Industry

Construction, Oil, and Finance Industry

Material Industry Machinery Industry

Global Automobile Industry

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007증감률

'07 '02~'07

도요타 6,535 7,053 7,811 8,502 9,289 9,716 4.6 48.7

GM 9,063 9,288 9,428 9,475 9,601 9,615 0.1 6.1

포드 7,941 7,822 7,878 7,812 7,728 7,823 1.2 -1.5

VW 5,063 5,113 5,131 5,250 5,926 6,540 10.4 29.2

르노/닛산 5,060 5,381 5,728 6,020 5,611 5,914 5.4 16.9

현대 2,757 2,868 3,311 3,716 3,982 4,269 7.2 54.8

혼다 2,916 2,971 3,179 3,409 3,631 3,914 7.8 34.2

PSA 3,101 3,090 3,081 3,084 3,103 3,232 4.2 4.2

크라이슬러 2,792 2,603 2,708 2,797 2,577 2,569 -0.3 -8.0

단위: 천대, %

자료: Fourin

Automobile Industry

• 11.8% of Manufacturing, 13.4% of EX

• Huge job creation industry: 9.1% of manufacturing employment

• The largest single EX item: $ 49.7 Billion EX

Contribution of Auto Industry(2006)

생산(십억원)

부가가치(십억원)

고용(천명)

수출(백만달러)

무역수지(백만달러)

설비투자(억원)

자동차산업 107712.0 35842.0 264.0 49720.0

42553.0

58581.0

제조업비중 11.8 11.0 9.1 13.4 12.3

자료: ‘ISTANS 주요산업동향지표’, 산업연구원주: 1) 수출, 무역수지는 2007년, 2) 자동차부품 포함

Automobile Industry

• Large effect on production inducement industry:

auto (2.5), elec (1.7), shipbuilding (2.0)

• Employees in auto related region:

154 million → 10.4% of total employment

• Rear Industry:

Materials and component, steel, plastic industries are highly related

• Front Industry:

Auto, service, machinery industries are highly related

Automobile Industry

• Position in global mkt as of 2007:

production 5.6% 5th largest producer, EX 284 million cars.

• More than 1 million cars are produced in foreign located plants

from 2007

• The quality of product is greatly improved recently.

• Export region:

North America (29.3%), Western Europe (19.3%),

Eastern Europe (15.7%), Middle East (11.6%),

South America (10.6%)

Location of Korean Auto Industry

진입기 성장기 성숙기 쇠퇴기

핵심역량

고

저 중국

대한민국

멕시코

브라질

일본 미국

프랑스

스페인

영국

독일

Location of Korean Auto Manufacturers

350

초기품질우수내구성부진

초기품질부진내구성부진

300

250

200

150

초기품질우수내구성우수

초기품질부진내구성우수

100

80 90 10 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

폴크스바겐

크라이슬러

BMW

GM

아우디

기아차

볼보현대차

도요타

벤츠

혼다렉서스

산업평균

산업평균

자료: J. D. Power

Automobile Industry

• Strong Points

- P competitiveness against developed countries

- Top notch level IT infra → Intelligent auto competitiveness

- Diversified mkt experiences

• Weak Points

- Not competitive component manufacturers

- Not strong brand power

- Opposing labor-mgmt

Automobile Industry

• Visions

- 2015’s domestic prod: 5.2 million and foreign prod: 2.4 million

- Global mkt share: 11% ← 6.7% (2005)

- 2015’s EX: $ 58 Billion

2015’s Expected Contribution of Auto Industry

2005년 2015년

자동차생산(국내) 370만대 520만대

해외생산 66만대 240만대

세계시장점유율 6.70% 11%

세계 100대부품업체 4개 14개

자동차수출액(부품포함) 379억달러 580억달러

부품수출액 84억달러 160억달러

고용창출 24만명 28만명

자료: 지식경제부

Communication Device IndustryLecture 6: South Korea’s Major Industries

World famous Korean Cellulars

Communication Device Industry

• A crucial industry that leads establishment of advanced information

oriented society

• Various ripple effects on mobile contents, software, computer,

display, semiconductor, and etc.

• Huge early stage investment, advanced tech, huge R&D, well

trained workforce needed

Development of Network

Digital Multimedia Service Ubiquitous

2G음성

IS95B/GPRS

(154kbps)

3G음성+데이터

WCDMA/HSDPA(2Mbps/14Mbps)

3.5G음성+데이터

+인터넷WiBro/WIMax

(1~30Mbps)

4G+USNOFDM

(100Mbps)

Past Now To Be

CameraMP3

Camcorder

Digital TVPMP

Game Player

PCProjector

PrinterScanner

Health-Care….

+ + +All in One

Size of Communication Device Market

1995 2001 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008(E) 2009(E)

시장 규모158,814 282,259 242,181 292,350 314,853 341,277 354,223 368,653

(0.3) (-10.7) (6.9) (6.5) (4.8) (8.4) (3.8) (4.0)

자료: Reed Electronics Research, Yearbook of World Electronics Data, 각년도주: ( )안은전년대비증가율

단위 : 백만 달러, %

Major Countries’ Communication Device Production

• Infra euip: 37%, Corp network: 15%, Cellular: 40%

1995 2000 2005 2006 2007(E) 2008(E)

미국 39.8 37.5 25.8 25.5 24.8 24.1

일본 17.0 14.0 11.1 10.2 9.5 8.3

중국 1.9 3.8 15.6 17.4 19.7 22.1

한국 2.1 5.1 9.0 9.0 8.8 7.3

독일 6.1 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2

자료: Reed Electronics Research, Yearbook of World Electronics Data, 각년도

단위 : %

Global Cellular Phone Market

20062007 2008 2009

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 전체 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 전체 1Q 2Q 3Q

노키아 34.7 36.9 38.9 38.9 40.6 38.9 40.9 41.0 38.9 38.4 39.8 38.1 37.8 37.4

삼성전자 11.3 14.1 14.4 14.8 14.1 14.4 16.4 15.4 17.1 17.9 16.7 18.7 19.2 20.7

LG전자 6.4 6.4 7.4 7.6 7.2 7.2 8.6 9.3 8.4 8.7 8.6 9.2 10.9 10.9

모토로라 21.7 18.4 13.7 12.9 12.4 14.2 9.7 9.5 8.4 6.4 8.5 6.0 5.5 4.9

소니-에릭슨

7.5 8.8 9.6 9.0 9.4 9.2 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.2 5.9 5.1 4.7

자료 : SA.

단위 : %

Communication Device Industry

• As of 2008, CDI forms 5% of in total

• Number of firms in CDI forms 2.8% of total firms (or 920 firms)

• CDI‘s EX is $30.9Billion in 2009 (93% cellular phone)

Samsung Kumi Plant

Semiconductor IndustryLecture 6: South Korea’s Major Industries

Semiconductor Industry


• Key industry of all electronic related industries

• Structure of global SC mkt btwn memory and non-memory

• Global SC mkt’s demand is volatile. The demand highly deps on

global business cycle: 2009’s over 20% demand decrease

• Global event like World Cup, Olympic,

and etc also affect demand of SC

Different Chip Products Mkt Share (2008)

전체반도체(2,486억달러)

메모리(18.6%) 비메모리(81.4%)

RAM(10.4%) ROM(8.2%)

D램(9.7%) S램(0.7%) 낸드(4.9%) 기타(3.3%)

자료:WSTS (2009.6)에의해작성

Global Chip Mkt Growth

구 분 2007년 2008년 2009년 2010년 2011년

반도체전체 3.2 -2.8 -21.7 7.5 8.8

시스템반도체 4.5 2.3 -22.0 7.0 8.9

메모리 -1.1 -19.9 -20.3 9.8 8.6

D램 -7.4 -23.2 -26.9 11.9 12.0

낸드플래시 26 -15.4 -2.1 13.7 9.5

자료: WSTS (2009.5)

단위 : 전년대비 증감률, %


• Global SC mkt has been undergoing serious competition:

chicken game

• Frequent bankruptcies and large M&As are common phenomenon

• German and Taiwan manufacturers are suffering from production

cost and distribution structure problems: Kimonda (Germany),

Nanya, Powerchip (Taiwan) bankrupted in 2009.


• Global D-ram mkt: Samsung, Hynix, Elphida-TMC, and Micron-

Nanya-Inotera survived the chicken game.

• Japnese Govnt strongly supports Elphida and Taiwanese Govnt

also strongly supports TMC: not successful yet

• In Korea, SI was started by US coms in 1965 for cheap labor cost.


• In 1983, Samsung, LG, and Hyundai elec started semiconductor

prod in earnest.

• Caught up developed Cs in 1992 after developing 64M dram.

After that, led the global mkt until now.

• 4 reasons of SI success

1) Started with memory chips

2) The 3 manufacturers’ co-work through Govnt’s support

3) Timely investment and develop distribution network

4) Decisive and quick decision by owners of companies

Korean Chip Export Growth

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

수출14,259 16,631 19,550 26,516 29,986 37,360 39,045 32,793

(-45.2) (-16.6) (17.6) (35.7) (13.1) (24.6) (4.5) (-16.0)

수입15,547 17,476 21,840 23,618 25,133 28,043 30,817 32,018

(-22.0) (12.4) (25.0) (10.7) (6.4) (11.6) (9.9) (3.9)

자료: KOTIS주: ()는 전년대비 증감률

단위 : 백만 달러, %


• In 2009, Korea supply 53% of global memory chips.

• However, non-memory mkt is dominated by U.S.

• In the future, China will be rising as a major provider thanks to rich

semiconductor design experts and related software development.

Global Chip Mkt Share by Country

Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2008 Q2-2008

반도체전체(%)

미국 47.4 47.6 48.8 51.2 49.2

일본 23.0 23.5 24.4 21.2 21.6

한국 10.0 9.0 7.9 8.8 10.1

중국 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

대만 4.5 4.6 3.6 4.2 4.8

DRAM(%)

미국 11.4 10.6 14.2 13.3 14.4

일본 15.6 16.0 15.7 14.9 16.6

한국 50.0 49.5 50.9 55.2 56.0

대만 14.1 14.2 9.8 10.0 11.9

낸드플래시(%)

미국 14.1 11.7 15.9 15.5 15.4

일본 28.0 30.8 34.5 32.3 29.5

한국 55.7 55.0 47.3 49.9 52.6

자료 : iSuppli.

Global Chip Mkt Manufacturers’Sales Ranking

Q2.08순위

Q2.09순위

기업Q2-08(매출)

Q1-09(매출)

Q2-09(매출)

증가율 비중

1 1 Intel 8,469 6,680 7,494 -11.5 14.2

2 2 삼성전자 4,756 2,920 3,876 -18.5 7.3

4 3 Toshiba 2,790 2,009 2,310 -17.2 4.4

3 4 TI 2,895 1,975 2,251 -22.2 4.3

5 5 STMicro 2,721 1,660 1,993 -26.8 3.8

8 6 Qualcomm 1,762 1,316 1,786 1.4 3.4

6 7 Renesas 1,986 1,207 1,351 -32.0 2.6

7 8 Hynix 1,774 898 1,295 -27.0 2.5

9 9 Infineon 1,600 975 1,150 -28.1 2.2

12 10 AMD 1,336 1,135 1,133 -15.2 2.1

단위 : 백만 달러,%

자료 : iSuppli, 2009 . 8

Samsung Elec Suwon Plant and SK Hynix Icheon Plant

Steel IndustryLecture 6: South Korea’s Major Industries

Steel Industry

Steel Industry

• Capital and tech intensive industry.

• The ‘rice’ of all industries!:

The largest forward-backward linkage effects

• Forward:

Construction, Auto, Shipbuilding, Machinery,

Home elec applicance, and etc

• Backward: Coal mining, power, nonferrous metals, and etc

Steel I’s Relating Effects

2005 1995

철강 화학 자동차 조선 철강 화학 자동차 조선

감응도계수(전방연쇄효과)

2.94 2.80 0.99 0.43 2.57 2.70 0.91 0.47

영향력계수(후방연쇄효과)

1.43 1.35 1.41 1.26 1.42 1.24 1.25 1.19

자료 : 한국은행 자료 이용하여 산업연구원 작성

Steel Industry’s Forward and Backward Is

철강총 산출 96,283

총수요 74,285

수입 10,514

중간수요 66,052

자동차/조선11,039

(10.7%)

건설9,567

(9.3%)

금속제품10,887

(10.6%)

일반기계8,300

(8.1%)

2005년

Forward Industry

조강및선철43,617

(55.2%)

석탄광산품2,904

(3.7%)

전력2,427

(3.1%)

운수및보관2,181

(2.8%)

최종소비 -128

고정자본형성 -1,043

수출 9,484

철강총 산출 96,283

중간투입 79,035(80.4%)

부가가치 19,248 (19.6%)

- 원금 5,431 (28.2%)

- 자본소득 9,735 (50.5%)

- 감가상각 3,907 (20.3%)

- 보조금+세금 175 (0.9%)

단위: 십억 원

Backward Industry단위: 십억 원

2005년

Steel Industry’s Backward I: Mining in Australia

Steel Industry

• Economies of scale is applied.

• Large changes of product prices because of slow adjustment to

excess demand and excess supply

• Facility size adjustment and emigration of facility are not easy.

• Generally facility investment goes behind business cycle.

Steel Industry

• Steel I generates 2.9% of GDP, 11.6% of manufacturing,

and $ 25 Billion (or 6.5%) of EX in 2008.

• Crude steel prod 5,363 million ton and 6th largest producer:

POSCO and Hyundai steel have the strongest competition power in

global mkt.

• POSCO started in 1970 and built up today’s competitiveness.

Production Size by Country

순위 2000 2008

1 중국 127.2 중국 500.5

2 일본 106.4 일본 118.7

3 미국 101.8 미국 91.4

4 러시아 59.1 러시아 68.5

5 독일 46.3 독일 55.1

6 한국 43.1 한국 53.6

7 우크라이나 31.8 우크라이나 45.8

8 브라질 27.9 브라질 37.1

9 인도 26.9 인도 33.7

10 이태리 26.8 이태리 30.6

세계합계 847.7 1,326.1

Steel Industry

• Because of active M&As in 1990s and 2000s, only Nippon Steel,

POSCO, US Steel survived from 1996.

• Global steel mkt experiences excess supply and more competitions:

top 5 coms mkt share will increase from 20% to 40% by 2020.

• Chinese steel producers’ big progress → Largest producer.

Also, India, Russia, and Brazil’s production is increasing quickly.

Production Size by Company

1N ippon

Steel28.8 N ippon Steel 28.4

A rcelor

M ittal103.3

2U sinor

Sacilor23.3 PO SC O 27.7

N ippon

Steel36.9

3 PO SC O 16.2Ispat

International22.4 Baosteel 35.4

4 British Steel 13.8C orus

Thyssen-Krupp Steel20.0 PO SC O 34.7

5 U S Steel 12.4 Shanghai 17.7 JFE Steel 33.8

6 N KK 12.1 Baosteel 17.7H eibei

Steel G .33.3

7 ILV A 11.5 N KK 16.0 W uhan 27.7

8 Thyssen 11.1 Riva 15.6 Tata Steel 24.4

9 Sum itom o 11.1 Kaw asaki 13.0Jiangsu

Shagang23.9

10 Kaw asaki 11.1Sum itom o

M etal11.6 U S Steel 23.2

Prod-

uction

Rank1990 2000 2008

C om pany C om pany C om panyProd-

uction

Prod-

uction

자료: WSA, Metal Bulletin.

Steel Industry

• Intensifying competition btwn China, Japan, and Korea for global

mkt (particularly US)

• Major demander in domestic market (2008)

• POSCO 3,282 million ton, Hyundai steel 978 million ton,

and Dongguk steel 290 million ton in 2008.

33%

23%

22%

5%

Construction

Shipbuilding

Auto

Machineries

Production Size and Mkt Share By Company

단위: 천톤, %

자료: 한국철강협회

순위 회사명2008 2007

조강생산 전년비 점유비 순위 조강생산

1 ㈜포스코 32,823 5.3 61.6 1 31,160

2 현대제철㈜ 9,738 -2.6 18.3 2 9,996

3 동국제강㈜ 2,896 -1.2 5.4 3 2,932

4 ㈜세아베스틸 1,743 18.9 3.3 4 1,466

5 한국철강㈜ 1,208 2.3 2.3 5 1,180

6 대한제강㈜ 1,167 77.1 2.2 6 659

7 YK스틸㈜ 1,051 -2.5 2 7 1,079

8 포스코특수강㈜ 882 -27.5 1.7 8 1,216

9 환영철강공업㈜ 725 -5.7 1.4 9 769

10 한국제강㈜ 645 0.1 1.2 10 644

조강생산 53,625 3.2 100 51,517

Steel Industry

• International competitiveness: 1) Japan, 2) Korea, 3) US, 4) China

• Japan and Korea: quality and production cost competitiveness

• Strong Pts of Korean Steel I: 1) superior manpower of tech,

2) production tech, 3) new tech development,

4) facility efficiency, 5) steady growth of forward Is

Competitiveness Comparison By Steel Products

한국 중국 일본 미국

형강 100.0 101.5 100.0 84.8

몽강 100.0 95.5 106.1 103.0

철근 100.0 100 101.5 100.0

선재 100.0 95.5 98.5 95.5

봉형강류 100.0 98.5 101.5 97.0

증후판 100.0 97 104.5 95.5

열연강판 100.0 92.4 106.1 93.9

냉연강판 100.0 89.4 103.0 109.1

아연도강판 100.0 89.4 112.1 107.6

판재류 100.0 90.9 104.5 101.5

강관류 100.0 89.4 97.0 84.8

종합 100.0 93.9 103.0 98.5

Steel Industry

• Weak Pts of Korean Steel I:

1) low R&D expenditure, 2) weak basic tech,

3) iron ore and coal are all imported, 4) new product development,

5) weak demand driven product

Shipbuilding IndustryLecture 6: South Korea’s Major Industries

Shipbuilding Industry


• Large forward and backward related industry effect

• Steel, machinery, elec, chemical, and etc industries

• Top noch IT tech, design, and production tech are needed. Also

highly trained workforce is needed.

• Huge facilities (docks and cranes), land, managing budget are

necessary: capital intensive industry


• Forward and Backward Industries

전방산업 후방산업

해운산업

수산업

방위산업

레저산업

기계산업

철강산업

전자산업

화학공업

가구업

비철금속

조선산업


• Changes of Backward Industry

일반기계535

(26.0%)

철강502

(24.4%)

선박용부분품285

(13.8%)

정밀화학77

(3.7%)

일반기계2,050

(23.7%)

철강1,313

(15.2%)

선박용부분품904

(10.5%)

정밀기기643

(7.5%)

철강3,778

(22.6%)

일반기계3,304

(19.8%)

금속제품1,000

(10.0%)

선박용부분품1,311

(7.9%)

1990년 2000년 2005년

단위 : 십억 원

Major Products of Shipbuilding Indu

LPG선 Ro-Pax ferry 크루즈선

Drill ship 컨테이너선 FPSO

Shuttle tanker 해양구조물 레저보트


• China industry’s rapid growth due to

1) strong domestic demand and

2) Govnt’s strong support.

• As of 2009, China’s shipbuilding capacity exceeded Korea:

World mkt share of 42.1%

• Major shipbuilding coms’ global mkt share

• Japan’s shipbuilding coms are undergoing active M&As

Korean Shipbuilding Industry’sLocation

구 분 1995 2000 2005 2009연평균증가율(%)

(1995~2009)

세계시장 규모(만 CGT)

1,468 2,004 2,897 4,369 8.1

생산규모(만CGT)

한국 305 648 1,009 1,447 11.8

일본 576 641 831 961 3.7

중국 76 114.5 419.4 1,239 22.1

세계시장점유율(%)

한국 20.8 32.3 34.8 33.1 -

일본 39.2 32.0 28.7 22.0 -

중국 5.2 5.7 14.5 28.4 -

상대적점유비율

한/일 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 -

한/중 4.0 5.7 2.4 1.2 -

자료 : Lloyd's.

Production of Ships by Country

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

Source: Lloyd’s

(천 GT)

1960 1965 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2009199519851975

Major Domestic Companies’ Global Mkt Share

(단위: %) 1995 1996 1997 2000 2002 2006 2007 2008

현대중공업건 조 11.1 12.8 10.5 10.8 12.2 9.2 8.5 10.7

수 주 8.5 10.5 12.5 10.1 10.7 11.3 6.2 11.3

삼성중공업건 조 6.3 6.4 5.4 6.7 8.6 7.0 6.0 6.1

수 주 7.5 6.0 5.9 9.0 12.7 6.6 5.7 5.8

대우조선해양건 조 6.6 8.5 8.0 6.7 9.5 6.1 5.1 6.4

수 주 4.6 7.4 10.5 6.5 6.6 5.1 5.1 7.1

한진중공업건 조 1.7 1.4 2.6 2.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.1

수 주 1.6 1.9 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.7

현대삼호중공업건 조 1.5 2.5 3.3 1.1 5.5 4.5 2.1 4.1

수 주 3.8 2.5 3.9 3.4 4.1 4.6 3.0 3.7

Ranking by Company

순위

2004년 5월 2006년 5월 2010년 3월

조선소 국적수주잔량(천CGT)



1 현대중공업 한국 8,995 현대중공업 한국 11,161 대우조선해양 한국 8,167

2 삼성중공업 한국 6,283 삼성중공업 한국 8,295 삼성중공업 한국 7,988

3 대우조선해양 한국 4,695 대우조선해양 한국 7,497 현대중공업 한국 7,661

4 현대미포 한국 2,957 현대미포 한국 4,170 STX조선 한국 4,647

5 현대삼호 한국 2,805 현대삼호 한국 2,776 현대미포 중국 4,101

6 미쯔비시 일본 2,127 STX조선 한국 2,307 현대삼호 한국 3,810

7 STX조선 한국 1,916 한진중공업 한국 2,193 대련조선 중국 2,967

8 한진중공업 한국 1,592 대련조선 중국 1,897 강남조선 중국 2,979

9 신아조선 한국 862 가와사키 일본 953 장수조선 중국 2,726

10 New Century 중국 698 신아조선 한국 915 성동조선 한국 2,602

자료 : Clarkson


• Shipbuilding I has large employment effect:

129,827 workers as of 2008, 5.3% of total employment.

Shipbuilding Indus’ Job Creation

구분 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

조선산업 86,213 86,201 90,304 92,213 104,367 118,818 129,827

총고용 2,712,310 2,752,175 2,814,598 2,881,003 2,878,582 2,855,426 2,466,716

총고용대비 비중

3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.6 4.2 5.3

자료 : 통계청, '광공업통계조사보고서', 각호주 : 총고용은 광업 및 제조업 고용을 기준으로 함

단위 : 명, %

Lecture VI - swan.ewha.ac.krswan.ewha.ac.kr/lecture_6_s_korean_industry.pdf · WiBro/WIMax...

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