2010-Thesis-Indium Nitride and Indium Gallium Nitride Nanoparticles
Lecture: Prospective Environmental Assessments Coupling ... · Example 2: Copper indium gallium...
Transcript of Lecture: Prospective Environmental Assessments Coupling ... · Example 2: Copper indium gallium...
-
1Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Lecture:
Prospective Environmental Assessments
Coupling scenario analysis and MFA
Case Study: Implications of future
electricity generation on metal
demand and availability
-
2Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Goals
Learning goal
1. Getting to know examples of prospective
assessments with a combined scenario analysis and
dynamic material flow analysis
2. Understanding for the case of electricity generation,
how the methods of the lecture can be applied to
• assess whether technology growth could be limited
by future resource limitations
• assess the consequences of technology use on
future metal availability
-
3Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Background and motivation
IEA 2013 (World Energy Outlook 2012)
Energy demand is increasing Energy provision is associated with
negative (environmental)
consequences
OECD
Non-OECD
GDPTotal primary
energy demand
1971 1980 1990 2000 2012
Background
Source: Presentation Anna Stamp, 2014
OECD
-
4Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
• The geochemical scarcity of the metals applied fostered concerns:
Background and motivation
Wäger, 2011, data from Hagelueken & Meskers
(2010)
% mined
1978-2008
% mined
1900-1978
Johnson et al. (2007), based on private
communication with Intel Corporation
Increasing primary production Increasing complexity
Source: Presentation Anna Stamp, 2014
-
5Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
• The geochemical scarcity of the metals applied fostered concerns:
Background and motivation
Prior et al. (2012)Wäger et al. (2011)
Declining ore grades (example gold) Rising environmental impacts of
resource provision
Green: Geochemically scarce
metals
Supply constraints could impede a large scale implementation of some technologies
Source: Presentation Anna Stamp, 2014
-
6Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
• Potential future demand can be modeled to assess potential pressure
on supply system of a geochemically scarce metal.
• This quantitative modeling has often been based on static model
parameters.
• Reliable estimations on resource availability are lacking, which
impedes a sound interpretation on possible supply restrictions.
Guiding question & research gap
How will future electricity generation and in particular a
transition towards currently emerging and potentially more
sustainable technologies in the energy sector affect the supply
and demand for scarce metals (and how will the scarcity of
metals affect technology growth)?
Source: Presentation Anna Stamp, 2014
-
7Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
• Scenarios of future electricity production
• Dynamic material flow model that links postulated future
implementation rates of technologies for electricity provision to
primary metal demand
• Discussion of how and if the increased metal demand could be met
by the supply system – which changes are necessary and how they
could influence environmental impacts?
Approach
2 examples:
1. General study on Overall worldwide electricity generation on
metal demand
2. More detailed study on Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS)
solar cells and implications on indium demand and supply
-
8Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Goals
Example 1: «Dynamic analysis of the
global metals flows and stocks in
electricity generation technologies»
A. Elshkaki & T.E. Graedel, Journal of Clearner Production 59 (2013), 260-273
-
9Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
GEO-3 scenarios from UNEP (Global Environmental Outlook)
Scenarios (2050)
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
«Market first scenario»
• Market-driven developments
• Business as usual
• For renewables: only existing policies are taken into account
«Policy first scenario»
• Strong governmental actions to reach social and environmental goals
• Renewables: takes into account existing policies and assumes successful
implementation of targets
-
10Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Past and current electricity production for 57 countries (aggregated to 11
regions) and existing energy scenarios as point of departure:
- GEO-3 scenarios from UNEP (Global Environmental Outlook)
Current electricity supply and scenarios
(2050)
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
«Market first scenario» «Policy first scenario»
TW
h
TW
h
-
11Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Current electricity supply and scenarios
(2050)
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
«Market first scenario» «Policy first scenario»
TW
h
TW
h
Worldwide electricity production: technology split
-
12Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Electricity production from wind and
solar technologies
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
«Market first scenario» «Policy first scenario»
TW
h
TW
h
-
13Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Assumptions for modeling electricity
generation technologies
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
• Wind: market share of offshore wind farms grow from currently 2% to 50%
in 2050
• PV: equal market shares of multi and singlechristalline silicon
technologies assumed; market share of thin film increases and the three
technologies have equal shares (amorphous silicon, CdTe, CIGS)
• Concentrated solar power: power tower and parabolic trough technology
• Hydropower: run-of-river and reservoir
• Geothermal: hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems
• Biomass: Cogeneration heat and electricity plant
• Nuclear: pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor
• Coal, gas, oil: «average» power plant (no distinction between
technologies)
More technological detail for renewables
-
14Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Modeling metal stocks and flows
(dynamic MFA)
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
1. Modeling annual installed electricity capacity per technology
The market share of each «sub-technology» was multiplied to the cumulative
installed electricity to get sub-technology specific values
discarded capacity modeled as delayed inflow:
2. Metal flows: estimated based on technology inflow multiplied by metal
content
-
15Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Results: Metal demand
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
MF: market first; PF: policy first
Strong increase for all metals in policy first scenario
Compared to current production level, Nd (used in wind generators) does not have a
problem, while Te and In (mainly used in PV) need to increase significantly production
capacities to meet future demand
-
16Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Results: Metal cumulative demand (until 2050)
compared to 2010 reserve estimation (policy first
scenario)
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
In and Te may become resource limted AND these three metals are additionally
used in non-energy applications (Te in metallurgical alloys and chemicals, In in flat
panels and alloys)
Companion metals (production can only be increased by more efficient recovery
from host metals)
However, reserve estimations are uncertain (and likely to increase)
-
17Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Results: Stocks
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
For some metals (e.g. Nd) recycling will not play a major role in the near future
Other metals (e.g. Ag) may be available for other applications in the future, if trend towards
less Si-based PV continues
Geographical distribution of metal «resources» will change
Nd stock in wind turbines Indium reserves and in-use-stocks
-
18Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Results: Average demand from 2010 – 2050 compared
to 2010 production level for base metals
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
Base metals are not an issue
«Market first scenario» «Policy first scenario»
-
19Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
• Base metals (Al, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Fe) are not a problem
• Metal resources will be relocated geographically (from locations with
natural reserves to countries with large in-use stocks)
• No metal supply problems for wind power technology
• Potential metal availability issues for (all) PV technologies:
– Silver for silicon based technologies
– Tellurium for cadmium telluride technology
– Indium for CIGS
– Germanium for amorphous silicon
Conclusions
Source: Elshkaki&Graedel 2013
-
20Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Goals
Example 2: Copper indium gallium
selenide (CIGS) solar cells
A. Stamp et al. Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case
of indium in CIGS solar cells, Resources, Conservation and Recycling 93 (2014)
156–167
-
21Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
grey box: material flow model
circles: model input
rhombi: output variables
Approach
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
22Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
No Title Short descriptionRefere
nce
sc1Technology
Roadmap Solar
Optimistic but plausible roadmap for PV implementation.
Identification of technology, economic and policy targets needed to
realize these future growth rates.
PV contribution on global electricity production in 2050:
11% (=4500 TWh/a)
(IEA,
2010)
sc2
energy
[r]evolution –
Reference
Scenario
Business as usual pathway, based on reference scenario in IEA
(2004) with extrapolation from 2030 to 2050.
PV contribution on global electricity production in 2050:
-
23Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
No Title Short description Reference
sc4Solar Generation 6
– Reference
Business as usual pathway, based on reference
scenario in IEA (2009) extrapolated from 2030 to 2050.
PV contribution on global electricity production in
2050:
1-2%a) (=562 TWh/a)
(EPIA and
Greenpeace, 2011)sc5
Solar Generation 6
– Accelerated
Scenario
Potential of PV with faster deployment rates than in
recent years, by continuation of current support
policies.
PV contribution on global electricity production in
2050:
11-14% a) (=4450 TWh/a)
sc6
Solar Generation 6
– Paradigm Shift
Scenario
“Full potential of PV”, with high level of political
commitment.
PV contribution on global electricity production in
2050:
17-21% a) (=6747 TWh/a)
Scenarios (electricity generation solar)
Source: Ph.D. thesis Anna Stamp, 2014
-
24Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Energy scenarios: electricity from PV
Source: Ph.D. thesis Anna Stamp, 2014
Business as usual
scenarios
«Full potential PV»
scenario
PV-optimistic
scenarios
-
25Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Scenarios for Indium use in non-energy applications
Source: Ph.D. thesis Anna Stamp, 2014
• Estimation of growth rates (high, medium and low scenario)
• Example: annual growth rates in coatings currently +13%; substitutions
are being explored for coatings, so «high» growth was assumed to be
equal to 4% (economic growth) according to US Department of Energy;
medium 2%, low 1%
-
26Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Parameter Level 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 unit
Market penetration CIGS
P1 Market share of
CIGS solar cells on
the PV market
Optimistic 0 2 5 13 25 37 48 50 %
Reference 0 2 4.5 9 15 21 28 30 %
Pessimistic 0 2 4 6.5 10 13.5 18 20 %
Technological progress CIGS
P2 Indium intensity
CIGS solar cells
(material intensity)
Optimistic 25.0 24.1 22.6 19.6 15.0 10.4 5.9 5.0 t/GW
Reference 30.0 29.0 27.5 24.4 19.5 14.6 10.0 9.0 t/GW
Pessimistic 40.0 39.1 37.6 34.6 30.0 25.4 20.9 20.0 t/GW
P3 CIGS module
lifetime
Optimistic 30 years
Reference 25 years
Pessimistic 20 years
Assumptions about market penetration and
technological progress CIGS cells
Source: Ph.D. thesis Anna Stamp, 2014
-
27Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Parameter Level 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 unit
Handling in anthroposphere CIGS
P4 Utilization rate
indium in CIGS solar
cell manufacturing
(material efficiency
Optimistic 17 21 26 37 55 73 89 93 %
Reference 17 20 24 32 45 57 69 72 %
Pessimistic 17 %
P5 Collection rate
CIGS solar cell
production scrap
Optimistic 87.5 87 85 80 70 60 53 52 %
Reference 87.5 87 86 84 80 76 73 73 %
Pessimistic 87.5 %
P6 Collection rate
EoL CIGS modules
Optimistic 85 %
Reference 40 %
Pessimistic 0 %
P7 Recovery rate
indium from EoL
CIGS modules
Optimistic 92 %
Reference 68 %
Pessimistic 0 %
P8 Recovery rate
indium from CIGS
solar cell production
scrap
Optimistic 25 28 33 44 60 76 92 95 %
Reference 25 27 31 38 50 62 73 75 %
Pessimistic 25 27 29 34 43 51 58 60 %
Assumptions about handling of CIGS cells
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
28Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Parameter Level 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 unit
Indium tin oxides (ITO) thin film applications
P9 Flat panel
displays lifetime
High 10 %
Average 7 %
Low 5 %
P10 Utilization rate
indium in ITO
manufacturing
High 30 30 34 43 62 80 92 93 %
Average 30 30 33 39 51 63 71 72 %
Low 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 %
P11 Collection rate
ITO production
scrap
Same as P5
P12 Collection rate
EoL flat panel
displays
High 50 %
Average 20 %
Low 15 %
P13 Recovery rate
indium from EoL flat
panel displays
High 0 1 4 16 43 69 84 85 %
Average 0 1 3 11 25 39 49 50 %
Low 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 4.0 5.0 %
P14 Recovery rate
indium from ITO
production scrap
High 74 74 77 80 85 89 94 95 %
Average 69 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 %
Low 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 %
Assumptions about other indium applications
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
29Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Cumulative primary indium demand from
CIGS solar cells associated with various
energy scenarios
Cumulative primary indium demand for
one scenario (sc3), with varying
assumptions for parameter groups
Results: Primary Indium demand for CIGS solar cells
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
30Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Results: Total primary Indium demand for all
applications
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
31Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
Measures to adjust indium supply to increased demand
1. Improve extraction efficiency
2. Increase production of carrier metal zinc
3. Mine indium with other carrier metals
4. Access historic resources
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
32Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
In = indium, Zn = zinc, Zn ore conc = zinc ore concentrate, 2N = 99% purity, 5N+ = >99.999%
purity..
Indium extraction efficiency from zinc ore to
high purity indium
Equipping all
mines with
indium-capable
smelters:
Efftot > 52%
Some new
projects have
90%
Efftot > 72%
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
33Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
• Annual zinc production: 12 Mio t in 2010
• On average, zinc production has increased 3.5% per year
since 1900 (linked to construction and automotive industry,
particularly for galvanization)
Sufficient for lower bound estimation of Indium demand
For upper bound estimation: annual increase of 12 – 24 %
necessary (scenario 1 and 6)
Increase production of carrier metal zinc
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
34Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
• Indium also occurs in copper, lead and tin minerals
Mine indium with other carrier metals
• Indium Corporation identified 15,000 t of indium as residue
reserves
• Usability of residue reserves depends on pollution
Access historic resources
Source: Stamp et al. 2014
-
35Prospective Environmental Assessments
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
• The same amount of primary indium “invested” can sustain
considerably higher installed capacities of CIGS solar cells
– Prerequisites: higher efforts in reducing indium demand in the technology and in
keeping the indium in the anthropogenic cycle
• Possible changes in the supply system to react to increasing demand:
e.g. increasing the extraction efficiency of indium as a by-product of
zinc production in order to decrease dependency on future zinc
demand development
• Some optimism regarding securing the indium supply for an increased
CIGS solar cell implementation in the medium term, although higher
prices might be required
• Study cannot be generalized to other metals
Conclusions
Source: Stamp et al. 2014