Lecture Note Bond & Stock

5/20/2018 Lecture Note Bond & Stock

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Debt Valuationand Interest


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Learning Objectives

1. Identi!y the "ey !eatures o! #onds anddescri#e the di!!erence #et$een private andpu#lic de#t %ar"ets.

2. Calculate the value o! a #ond and relate itto the yield to %aturity on the #ond.

&. 'escri#e the !our "ey #ond valuationrelationships.


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Learning Objectives (cont.)

4. Identi!y the %a(or types o! corporate#onds.

). E*plain the e!!ects o! in!lation on interest

rates and descri#e the term structure ofinterest rates.



9.1 OVERVIEW OF

OR!OR"#E DE$#


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or%orate $orro&ings

+ here are t$o %ain sources o! #orro$ing !ora corporation-

1. oan !ro% a !inancial institution /"no$n as%rivate debt since it involves only t$o parties

2. onds /"no$n as %ublic debt since they can #e

traded in the pu#lic !inancial %ar"ets



$orro&ing 'one in te !rivateFinancial 'ar*et

Financial Institutions provide loans to!inance !ir%3s daytoday operations /&or*ingca%ital loans or it %ight #e used !or thepurchase o! euip%ent or property/transaction loans. oans %ay or %ay not#e secured #y a collateral.



$orro&ing 'one in te !rivateFinancial 'ar*et (cont.)

+ "dvantageso! Private 'e#t Place%ent6 7peed

6 8educed costs

6 inancing !le*i#ility

+ Disadvantageso! Private 'e#t Place%ent

6 Interest costs

6 8estrictive covenants

6 he possi#ility o! !uture 7EC registration


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Floating+Rate Loans

In the private !inancial %ar"et, loans aretypically ,loating rate loans i.e. the interestrate is ad(usted #ased on a speci!ic#ench%ar" rate. he %ost popular #ench%ar"rate is the London Interban* O,,ered Rate(LI$OR), rate at $hich #an"s o!!er to lend inthe ondon $holesale or inter#an" %ar"et



#able 9+1 #%es o, $an* Debt



$orro&ing 'one in te !ublicFinancial 'ar*et

Corporations engage the services o! aninvest-ent ban*er $hile raising longter%!unds in the pu#lic !inancial %ar"et. heinvest%ent #an"er per!or%s three #asic !unctions-

6 nder&riting- assu%ing ris" o! selling asecurity issued. he client is given the %oney#e!ore the securities are sold to the pu#lic.

6 Distributing

6 "dvising



or%orate $onds

+ or%orate bond is a de#t security issued#y corporation that has pro%ised !uturepay%ents and a %aturity date.

+ I! the !ir% !ails to pay the pro%ised !uturepay%ents o! interest and principal, the #ondtrustee can classi!y the !ir% as insolvent and

!orce the !ir% into #an"ruptcy.


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$asic $ond Features

+ he #asic !eatures o! a #ond include the!ollo$ing-

6 ond indenture

6 Clai%s on assets and inco%e

6 Par or !ace value

6 Coupon interest rate

6 ;aturity and repay%ent o! principal

6 Call provision and conversion !eatures


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$ond Ratings and De,ault Ris*

$ond ratings indicate the de!ault ris" i.e. thepro#a#ility that the !ir% $ill %a"e the #ond3spro%ised pay%ents. 8ating agencies use#orro$er3s !inancial state%ents, !inancing %i*,pro!ita#ility, varia#ility o! past pro!its, and%a"e (udg%ents a#out the uality o! the!ir%3s %anage%ent in order to deter%ine

ratings.


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#able 9./ Inter%reting $ond Ratings


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9.0 V"LI2 OR!OR"#EDE$#


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Valuing or%orate Debt

he value o! corporate de#t is eual to thepresent value o! the contractually pro%isedprincipal and interest pay%ents /the cash!lo$s discounted #ac" to the present usingthe %ar"et3s reuired yield to %aturity onsi%ilar ris".


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#able 9.0 $ond #er-inolog


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Valuing $onds b Discounting Futureas Flo&s

7tep 1- 'eter%ine #ondholder cash !lo$s,$hich are the the a%ount and ti%ing o! the#ond3s pro%ised interest and principalpay%ents to the #ondholders.

+Annual Interest < Par value = coupon rate

+E*a%ple 9.1- he annual interest !or a 10year #ond$ith coupon interest rate o! 5> and a par value o!?1,000 is eual to ?50, /.05 = ?1,000 < ?50. his#ond $ill pay ?50 every year and ?1,000 at the end o!10years.

l i d b i i


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Valuing $onds b DiscountingFuture as Flo&s (cont.)

7tep 2- Esti%ate the appropriate discount rateon a #ond o! si%ilar ris". 'iscount rate is thereturn the #ond $ill yield i! it is held to%aturity and all #ond pay%ents are %ade.

V l i $ d b Di i


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Valuing $onds b DiscountingFuture as Flo&s (cont.)

7tep &- Calculate the present value o! the#ond3s interest and principal pay%ents !ro%7tep 1 using the discount rate in step 2.


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alculating a $ond3s 4ield to'aturit (4#')

@e can thin" o! ; as the discount rate that%a"es the present value o! the #ond3spro%ised interest and principal eual to the#ond3s o#served %ar"et price.


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5E6!OI# 9.07

CHECK YOURSELF

alculating te 4ield to 'aturit on aor%orate $ond

Calculate the ; on the ord #ond $here the#ond price rises to ?900 /holding all other things

eual.


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8te% 17 !icture te !roble-

;


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8te% 07 Decide on a 8olution8trateg

@e can use euation 92a to !ind ;. ; isthe rate that %a"es the present value o! all!uture e*pected cash !lo$s eual to thecurrent %ar"et price. @e can also solve !or

; using a calculator and a spreadsheet.


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8te% /7 8olve

Dsing a ;athe%atical Euation

+It is cu%#erso%e to solve !or ; #y handusing the euation. It is %ore practical to usethe !inancial calculator or the spread sheet.


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8te% /7 8olve (cont.)

Dsing a inancialCalculator

< 11IF < .:9

PG < 900

P; < )

G < 1,000

Dsing an E*cel7preadsheet

< 8AE/nper,p%t,pv,!v

< 8AE /11,),900,1000

< .:9;


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8te%


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sing 'ar*et+4ield+to+'aturit Data

;ar"etyieldto%aturity data is regularlyreported #y a nu%#er o! investor services andis uoted in ter%s o! credit s%reads ors%reads to #reasur bonds. a#le 94

contains so%e e*a%ples o! spreads.

# bl 9 < t $ d 8 d


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#able 9+< or%orate $ond 8%read#ables

i ' * t 4i ld t ' t it D t


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sing 'ar*et 4ield to 'aturit Data(cont.)

+ he spread values reported in ta#le 94represent #asis points over a D7 reasurysecurity o! the sa%e %aturity as thecorporate #ond.

+ or e*a%ple, a &0year a1FH corporate#ond has a spread o! 25) #asis points over asi%ilar &0year D7 reasury #ond.

+ hus this corporate #ond should earn 2.5)>over the 4.)> earned on treasury yield or5.&1>.

! i d


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!ro-ised versusE>%ected 4ield to 'aturit

he yield to %aturity calculation assumesthatthe #ond per!or%s according to the ter%s o!the #ond contract or indenture. 7incecorporate #onds are su#(ect to ris" o! de!ault,

thepromisedyield to %aturity %ay not #eeual to expectedyield to %aturity.

! i d E t d 4i ld t


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!ro-ised versus E>%ected 4ield to'aturit (cont.)

+ E*a%ple Consider a oneyear #ond thatpro%ises a coupon rate o! :> and has aprincipal /par value o! ?1,000. urtherassu%e the #ond is currently trading !or

?:)0. @hat is the pro%ised yield to%aturityB

! i d E t d 4i ld t


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Pro%ised ;

< /Interestyear 1 H Principal J /ond GalueK 6 1

< /?:0H?1,000 J /?:)0K 6 1

< 0.?@;

!ro-ised ers s E %ected 4ield to


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he yield o! 25.0> is #ased on theassu%ption o! no de!ault. Assu%e there is a40> pro#a#ility o! de!ault on this #ond and i!the #ond de!aults, the #ondholders $ill receive

only 0> o! the principal and interest o$ed.@hat is the e*pected ; on this #ondB


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5E6!OI# 9./7CHECK YOURSELF

Valuing a $ond Issue

Calculate the present value o! the AL

#ond should the yield to %aturity !orco%para#le ris" #onds rise to 9> /holding

all other things eual.


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i< 9>

ears

Cash !lo$s ?:) ?:) ?:) ?1,0:)

0 1 2 & 20

PG o! allCash !lo$s


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+ Mere $e "no$ the !ollo$ing-6 Annual interest pay%ents < ?:)

6 Principal a%ount or par value < ?1,000

6 i%e < 20 years

6 ; or discount rate < 9>

+ @e can use the a#ove in!or%ation todeter%ine the value o! the #ond #y

discounting !uture interest and principalpay%ent to the present.


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8te% /7 8olve

Dsing a ;athe%atical or%ula

< ? :)N1/1F/1.0920O J /.20K H?1,000F/1.0920

< ?:) /9.12: H ?15:.4& < A9B


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6 < 20

6 1Fy < 9.0

6 P; < :)

6 G < 1000

6 PG < 9B


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8te% .


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8e-iannual Interest !a-ents

Corporate #onds typically pay interest to#ondholders se%iannually. @e can adaptEuation /92a !ro% annual to se%iannualpay%ents as !ollo$s-


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5E6!OI# 9. /holding all other things eual.


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i< 9>

Periods

Cash !lo$

?42.) ?42.) ?42.) ?1,042.)0

0 1 2 & 40

PG


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+ Mere $e "no$ the !ollo$ing-6 7e%iannual interest pay%ents < ?42.)0

6 Principal a%ount or par value < ?1,000

6 i%e < 20 years or 40 periods

6 ; or discount rate < 9> or 4.)> !or %onths

+ @e can use the a#ove in!or%ation todeter%ine the value o! the #ond #y

discounting !uture interest and principalpay%ent to the present.


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8te% /7 8olve

Dsing a ;athe%atical or%ula

< ? 42.)N1/1F/1.04)40O J /.20K H?1,000F/1.04)40

< ?42.) /1:.40 H ?151.9&< A9B


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6 < 40

6 1Fy < 4.)0

6 P; < 42.)0

6 G < 1000

6 PG < 9B.

o--on 8toc* aracteristics


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(cont.)

Agency Costs and Co%%on 7toc"7hareholders elect the #oard. In reality,#oard %e%#ers are no%inated #y the

%anage%ent. As a result, %anage%ente!!ectively elects the #oard. his %aylead to agency pro#le%s.

Valuing o--on 8toc* sing te


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Discounted Dividend 'odel

i"e #onds, co%%on stoc"3s value is eual tothe present value o! all !uture cash !lo$s thatthe stoc"holder e*pects to receive !ro%o$ning the shares o! stoc". Mo$ever, unli"e

#onds, the !uture cash !lo$s in the !or% o!dividends are not !i*ed and there is no%aturity date.

#ree 8te% !rocedure ,or Valuing


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o--on 8toc*

7tep 1- Esti%ate the a%ount and ti%ing o! thereceipt o! the !uture cash !lo$s the co%%onstoc" is expectedto provide.

7tep 2- Evaluate the ris"iness o! the co%%onstoc"3s !uture dividends to deter%ine thestoc"3s reuired rate o! return.

#ree 8te% !rocedure ,or Valuing


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o--on 8toc* (cont.)

7tep &- Calculate the present value o! thee*pected dividends #y discounting the% #ac"to the present at the stoc"3s reuired rate o!return.

+he three steps sho$ that the value o! aco%%on stoc" is eual to the present value o!

all !uture dividends.

#e onstant Dividend 2ro&t Rate


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'odel

I! a !ir%3s cash dividend gro$ #y a constantrate, then the co%%on stoc" can #e valued as!ollo$s-


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5E6!OI# 1?.17CHECK YOURSELF

Valuing o--on 8toc*

#e !roble-


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#e !roble-

@hat is the value o! a share o! co%%on stoc"that paid ? dividend at the end o! last yearand is e*pected to pay a cash dividend everyyear !ro% no$ to in!inity, $ith that dividend

gro$ing at a rate o! ) percent per year, i! theinvestor3s reuired rate o! return is 12> onthat stoc"B



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@ith a perpetuity, a ti%eline goes on !orever $ith the gro$ing cash !lo$ occurringevery period.

i

ears

Cash !lo$s ? ?/1.0)?/1.0)2

0 1 2

Galue o! co%%onstoc" < Present

Galue o! E*pected'ividends. he gro$ing

dividends go on!orever

8te% 07 Decide on a 8olution


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8trateg

+ he value o! a share o! stoc" can #e vie$edas a the present value o! a gro$ingperpetuity.

+ Mere $e "no$ the e*pected dividends, the

gro$th rate, and investor3s reuired rate o!return.

+ @e can use euation 102 to deter%ine the

value o! a share o! co%%on stoc".

8te% /7 8olve


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8te% /7 8olve

+ @e need to !irst deter%ine '1,the dividendne*t period.

+ 7ince dividends at the end o! last year $as? and dividends are e*pected to gro$ at a

rate o! )>, dividends !or ne*t period $ill #e-

+ '1< '0/1Hg < ? /1.0) < ?.&0

8te% /7 8olve (cont )


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+ Gcs < ?.&0 J /0.120.0) < ?.&0 J 0.05< A9?

8te%


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8te%


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and Do&n

Euation 102 indicates that there are threevaria#les that drive share value-

6 he %ost recent dividend /'0,

6 Investor3s reuired rate o! return /rcs , and

6 E*pected rate o! gro$th in !uture dividends /g.

Wat auses 8toc* !rices to 2o %d ( )


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and Do&n (cont.)

7ince %ost recent dividend /'0 has already#een paid, it cannot a!!ect price. hus theother t$o varia#les, rcsand g, can vary and

lead to changes in stoc" prices.

Deter-inants o, te Investor3sR i d R , R


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Reuired Rate o, Return

he investor3s reuired rate o! return isdeter%ined #y t$o "ey !actors-

1.he level o! interest rates in the econo%yR

2.he ris" o! the !ir%3s stoc".

Deter-inants o, te Investor3sR i d R t , R t ( t )


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Reuired Rate o, Return (cont.)

CAP; suggests that i! ris"!ree rate andForsyste%atic ris" /#eta rises, the investor3sreuired rate o! return $ill rise and the stoc"price $ill !all.

Deter-inants o, te 2ro&t Rate o,F t Di id d


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Future Dividends

he gro$th rate o! !uture dividends /g canalso change and lead to a change in the stoc"price. he t$o "ey deter%inants o! a !ir%3sgro$th opportunities relate to-

6 the return on euity /8SE, and

6 the retention ratio /#

Deter-inants o, 2ro&t Rate o,F t Di id d ( t )


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Future Dividends (cont.)

he gro$th rate is !or%ally e*pressed as!ollo$s-

+g < the e*pected rate o! gro$th o! dividends

+'1FE1< the dividend payout ratio

+# < the proportion o! !ir%3s earnings that are

retained and reinvested in the !ir%.+8SE < the return on euity earned $hen the !ir%reinvests a portion o! its earning #ac" into the !ir%.


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1?.0 #5E O'!"R"$LE8"!!RO"5 #O V"LI2

O''O 8#O6

#e o-%arables "%%roac toV l i 8t *


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Valuing o--on 8toc*

his %ethod esti%ates the value o! the !ir%3sstoc" as a %ultiple o! so%e %easure o! !ir%3sper!or%ance. he %ost co%%on %etric isearnings per share. hus values are

deter%ined !ro% the %rice+to+earnings ratioo! co%para#le !ir%s.

De,ining te !GE Ratio Valuation' d l


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'odel

+Gcs < the value o! co%%on stoc" o! the !ir%.

+PFE1< the price earnings ratio !or the !ir%#ased on the current price per share divided#y earnings !or end o! year 1.

+E1 < esti%ated earnings per share o!

co%%on stoc" !or the end o! year 1.


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5E6!OI# 1?.07CHECK YOURSELF

Valuing o--on 8toc*

sing te !GE Ratio

#e !roble-


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A!ter so%e care!ul analysis and re!lection onthe valuation o! the Meals3 shares theco%pany CS suggested that the earningspro(ection are too conservative and earnings

!or the co%ing year could easily (u%p to?2.00. @hat does this do !or your esti%ate o!the value o! Meals3 sharesB



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%

EP7< ?2.00

PFE;ultiple

7toc"Price



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8trateg

+ he co%%on stoc" value can #e co%puted#y %ultiplying the !ir%3s esti%ated earningsper share !or the co%ing year #y $hat theanalyst esti%ates to #e an appropriate PFE

ratio.

+ @e can use euation 104 to esti%ate the

value o! co%%on stoc".

8te% /7 8olve


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%

Gcs < 1:.20 = ?2< A/@.


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%

+ @e esti%ated the value o! Meales3 shares#ased on the PFE ratios o! three co%para#le!ir%s. Mo$ever, this esti%ate is contingenton the appropriateness o! the co%para#le

set o! co%panies to the Meals 7hoeCo%pany.

+ urther%ore, i! the %ar"et conditionschange #y the ti%e the shares are sold inthe %ar"et, the price esti%ate $ill not #eappropriate.

Wat Deter-ines te !GE Ratio ,or a8toc*


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8toc*

Dsing Euation 10)a and 10)#, there aret$o !unda%ental deter%inants o! a !ir%3s PFEratio-

1. 2ro&t Rate in Dividends /higher the

gro$th rate, higher the PFE ratio, and

0. Investor+Reuired Rates o, Return/higher the reuired rate, lo$er the PFE

ratio


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1?./ !REFERRED 8#O6

Features o, !re,erred 8toc*


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+ Dividend- In general, siTe o! pre!erredstoc" dividend is fixed, and it is either statedas a dollar a%ount or as a percentage o! thepre!erred stoc"3s par value.

+ 'ulti%le lasses- A co%pany can issue%ore than one class o! pre!erred stoc", andeach class can have di!!erent characteristics.

Features o, !re,erred 8toc* (cont.)


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+ lai-s on "ssets and Inco-e7 Pre!erredstoc"holders have priority over those o!co%%on stoc"holders !or pay%ent o!dividends and in settle%ent o! clai%s at

#an"ruptcy. ;ost pre!erred stoc" carry acu-ulative ,eaturei.e. all past unpaiddividends %ust #e paid #e!ore any co%%onstoc" dividends can #e declared.

Features o, !re,erred 8toc* (cont.)


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!re,erred 8toc* as a 5brid 8ecurit76 i"e co%%on stoc"s, pre!erred stoc"s do not

have a !i*ed %aturity date. Also, li"e co%%onstoc"s, nonpay%ent o! dividends does not #ring

on #an"ruptcy, and dividends are not deducti#le!or ta* purposes.

6 i"e de#t, pre!erred stoc"s have a !i*ed dividend.Also, %ost pre!erred stoc"s are periodicallyretired even though there is no stated %aturitydate.

Valuing !re,erred 8toc*


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ecause pre!erred stoc"s are perpetuities/non%aturing, and #ecause the cashdividend is the sa%e every period, they can#e valued using the present value o!

perpetuity euation introduced in chapter /euation ).

Valuing !re,erred 8toc* (cont.)


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+Gps < the value o! a share o! pre!erred stoc"

+'ps< the annual pre!erred stoc" dividend+rps< the %ar"et yield or the rate o! return on

the pre!erred stoc"3s pro%ised dividend

Esti-ating te 'ar*et3s Reuired4ield


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4ield

Esti%ating the 'ar*et 4ield- @e can useeuation 10 to solve !or the %ar"et3sreuired yield.

rps < 'ps JGps


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5E6!OI# 1?./7CHECK YOURSELF

Valuing !re,erred 8toc*

@hat is the present value o! a share o!

pre!erred stoc" that pays a dividend o!?12 per share i! the %ar"et3s yield on

si%ilar issues o! pre!erred stoc" is :>B



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Pre!erred stoc"s are constant !or all yearsand !or% a level perpetuity.

rps

ears

'ividends ?12 ?12 ?12 ?12

0 1 2 &

Galue o! Pre!erred7toc" < Present

Galue o! pro%iseddividends. he annual?12 dividends

go on!orever.



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8trateg8te% /7 8olve

@e can deter%ine the present value o! shareo! pre!erred stoc" using euation 10.

Gps < ?12 J 0.0: < A1B?

8te%


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7ince pre!erred stoc" is a level perpetuity, itsvalue on any !uture date $ill #e the sa%e asits present value today as long as thepro%ised rate o! return on the share re%ains

the sa%e.


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1?.< #5E 8#O6 '"R6E#

#e 8toc* 'ar*et


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As discussed in chapter 2, ne$ securities tradein the %ri-ar -ar*et $hile currentlyoutstanding securities trade in the secondar-ar*et. here are t$o types o! secondary

%ar"ets- organiTed e*changes and overthecounter %ar"ets.

Organi=ed E>canges


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#e e& 4or* 8toc* E>cange (48E),also called the Uig oard,V is the oldest o! allorganiTed e*changes. @hile the 7Eisconsidered an organiTed e*change #ecause o!

its physical location, the %a(ority o! its tradesare done electronically $ithout a !aceto!ace%eeting o! traders.

Organi=ed E>canges (cont.)


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+ o #e listed on the 7E, a !ir% %ust %eetstrict reuire%ents dealing $ith pro!ita#ilityand %ar"et value, and #e $idely o$ned.

+ ;uch o! the trading on the 7E is %ade upo! bloc* trades i.e. transactions involving10,000 shares or %ore #y a single individual

or institution.

Organi=ed E>canges (cont.)


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+ he "-erican 8toc* E>cange /A;EW isthe nation3s second largest, !loor#asede*change. Mo$ever, in ter%s o! tradingvolu%e, the A;EW is a distant nu%#er t$o

$ith less than &> o! that on the 7E.+ Although A;EW %erged $ith A7'A in

199: it continues to operate as a separateentity.

Over+te+ounter (O#) 'ar*et


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he over+te+counter -ar*et is a net$or"o! dealers that has no listing or %e%#ershipreuire%ents. oday, the SC %ar"et iselectronic rather than personal, $ith asda

leading the $ay. It is also the pri%ary %ar"et!or #onds.

Over+te+ounter (O#) 'ar*et(cont.)


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(cont.)

+ asdade#uted in 1951 and $as the$orld3s !irst electronic stoc" %ar"et. @hileasda lists %ore co%panies than the7E, they are relatively s%aller co%panies

/$ith a !e$ e*ceptions+ here are a#out 1,000 %ar"et participants,

in general trading !ir%s that are lin"edelectronically, $ith price and tradingin!or%ation #roadcast to over &)0,000ter%inals $orld$ide.

Over+te+ounter (O#) 'ar*et(cont.)


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(cont.)

he asda stoc" %ar"et has t$o tiers o!listed co%panies-

6 asda ational ;ar"ets, %ade up o! around

4,000 co%panies li"e 'ell /', Intel /ICR and

6 asda 7%allcap ;ar"et, $hich includes over1,000 s%aller e%erging gro$th co%panies.

Lecture Note Bond & Stock

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Transcript of Lecture Note Bond & Stock