Lecture demography 2011 12

DR. RIZWAN SAEED(MBBS, MPH, DOMS, MBA)

DEMOS = PEOPLEGRAPHOS = WRITE / RECORD / DRAWING

“Demography is that branch of social is that branch of social science, which deals with the statistical science, which deals with the statistical study of size, structure and distribution study of size, structure and distribution of populations, along with the spatial and of populations, along with the spatial and temporal changes in them in response to temporal changes in them in response to birth, migration, aging and death.birth, migration, aging and death.””

Demographic analysis can be applied to whole societies or to groups defined by criteria such as education, nationality, religion and ethnicity. In academia, demography is often regarded as a branch of either anthropology, economics, or sociology

Study of human population concerning their Size ( total no. of persons in specific area in sp. time)Composition (breakdown according to age,sex, literacy

level , income etc)Distribution (arrangement of people in space at a given

time e.g. urban % ,rural%, etc.)Structure (distribution among age, sex grouping etc.

e.g.<5 yr. or >65yr male? , female?) etc.Changes / Behaviour within them (pop. growth,

pop. Decline, Positive growth, Zero growth, Negative growth etc.)

POPULATION STUDIESSocial effectsEconomic effectsHealth factorsGeographic Environmental

Also concerned with characteristics of human

beings such as :Ethnicity (race / language)Social characteristics (literacy, marital status,

educational attainment) Religion

SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATACensusSurveysRegistration (birth / death )

CARRYING CAPACITY: CARRYING CAPACITY: The maximum sustainable size of a resident population in a given ecosystem

CRUDE RATE: CRUDE RATE: rate of any demographic event computed for an entire population

•FERTILITY •FECUNDITY•MORTALITY•NET MIGRATION•URBANIZATION•POPULATION GROWTH RATE•POPULATION DOUBLING TIME•REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY (ZERO POP. GROWTH)•MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH•DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION•CENSUS

Actual reproductive performance (behavior) of a women / couple.It is generally confined to women

•CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR)•GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (GFR)•AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

•TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) Pak= 5.6•GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE(GRR)•NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR)

ORIGINAL RATES

DERIVED RATES

•CHILD BEARING PERFORMANCE

•CHILD BEARING CAPACITY

•Voluntary biological process •Inherent biological capacity•Varies among individual depending upon their reproductive behavior

•Fecundity is almost uniformly distributed in both sexes

•Influenced by various social and biological factors (age at marriage, duration of marriage, spacing of children, child survival, educational status, economic stability, cultural beliefs & practices)

•Fecundity of man starts at puberty and continues throughout life; it attains its maximum during second and third decade of life and diminishes gradually•Fecundity of woman starts and menarche and ends with menopause

•Considerably reduced by various methods of fertility control available to couples

•Fecundity of a couple is essentially determined by fecundity of female partners

•Increase in inter-pregnancy intervals reduces fertility

•Equally fecund women demonstrates variable levels of fertility in response to variable levels of control on their child bearing performance

if you get one good shot on a roll of 36, you were doing good. That’s the if you get one good shot on a roll of 36, you were doing good. That’s the ratioratio: : 36:136:1., or ., or 1/361/36, 1 to 36 , 1 to 36

When resting, the average adult human heart beats at about 70 bpm (males) When resting, the average adult human heart beats at about 70 bpm (males) and 75 bpm (females); however, this and 75 bpm (females); however, this rate rate varies among people and can be varies among people and can be significantly lower in endurance athletes….significantly lower in endurance athletes…. 10 km per 2 h, $6 per 3 h 10 km per 2 h, $6 per 3 h

Example:

A rate is one kind of ratio.A rate is one kind of ratio.Ratio: the relation between two similar magnitudes with the relation between two similar magnitudes with respect to the number of times the first contains the second; respect to the number of times the first contains the second; proportional relation.("the relationship in quantity, amount, or proportional relation.("the relationship in quantity, amount, or size between two or more things“)size between two or more things“)Rate: a certain quantity or amount of one thing considered a certain quantity or amount of one thing considered in relation to a unit of another thing and in relation to a unit of another thing and used as a used as a standard or measurestandard or measure ((""a fixed ratio between two things“)a fixed ratio between two things“)

No. of abortions occurring during a given year per 1000 women of reproductive ageAbortion Ratio

It is the ratio between the no. of abortions occurring in a given year and the no. of live birthsMaternal Mortality RateNumber of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births [PAKISTAN=500/100,000]Maternal Mortality RatioThe number of maternal deaths related to childbearing divided by the number of live births (or by the number of live births + fetal deaths) in that year.

GFR = GFR = NO. OF LIVE BIRTHS IN A YEAR NO. OF LIVE BIRTHS IN A YEAR x 1000x 1000NO. OF FEMALES AGES (15-49 yrs)NO. OF FEMALES AGES (15-49 yrs)

ASFR = ASFR = NO. OF LIVE BITHS IN A YEAR TO WOMEN NO. OF LIVE BITHS IN A YEAR TO WOMEN AGE –X AGE –X x 1000x 1000

NO. OF WOMEN AGED-X NO. OF WOMEN AGED-X

TFR = SUM OF ASFRs TFR = SUM OF ASFRs (15-49 yrs) [PAK= 3.17 [PAK= 3.17 ---- 2011est.]---- 2011est.]

[ [ average no. of children a women would have if she was to pass through her average no. of children a women would have if she was to pass through her reproductive years bearing children at same rates as the women now in each reproductive years bearing children at same rates as the women now in each age group age group ]]

• Fertility rate is high in 20-30 yrs of age in all countriesFertility rate is high in 20-30 yrs of age in all countries

Dependency Ratio := Children + Elderly X 100

Working Age

= Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100 Pop 16 – 64 years

Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 83.34%Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5 %Dependency Ratio of Japan = 44 %

Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of males to females in the population & is calculated by taking the number of males in a population & dividing it by the number of females in the same populationSex Ratio = Number of Males X 100

Number of Females

No. of live births in a specified period at a specific place No. of live births in a specified period at a specific place x 100x 100No. of deaths at same place and periodNo. of deaths at same place and period

EXAMPLE: No. of live births in city (x) = 450No. of deaths in same city and period = 300V.I. = 450 / 300 x 100 = 150If V.I. = 100 (births = death population is neither increasing nor decreasing)If V.I. > 100 (births > deaths ; population increasing)If V.I. < 100 (births < deaths ; population decreasing)

Population Density = No. of persons / sq. mile Pakistan = 206

Population Change =Mortality + Fertility + (net) Migration

Pt 1 = Pt₀ + (B – D) + (IM - OM)Pt 1 = Future PopulationPt₀ = Present Population

Population change can be due to 1.Natural Reasons (NATURAL INCREASE)

Natural Increase = No. of live births (B) - No. of residents died (D); [ B-D]2.Migration

Net Migration = In migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM]

POPULATION GROWTH (PG) = NATURAL INCREASE + NET

MIGRATION

PG = (B –D) + (IM – OM)

Pt1 = Pt₀ (1 + r)t

WHERE

Pt ₀ = present population

Pt 1

= future population

r = growth rate per person (in proportion)t = no. of years between t₀ and t1 EXAMPLE : We want to calculate the population of a community in year 2012 (Pt1), Population of a community is 20,000 in year

2006 (Pt0 ) and annual GR is 3%

P(2012) = P (2006) (1+ 3 / 100)6

= 20000 (1+ 3 /100 )6 = 20000(1+0.030)6 = 23880 ORPt1 = Pt0 [ 1 + (GR / 100 x No. of years)] = 20000 [1+ (3/100 x 6)] = 20000 (1 + 0.18) = 23600

Physiological capability (potential) of a women to reproduce

•Varies by age, nutrition and health

Experience of a population in terms of deaths.

IMR MMR

Total no. of persons added or subtracted from a population as a result of combined effect of immigration and emigration

Net Migration = In-migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM]

(Immigration – Emigration)Migration rate = No. of migrants x 1000 Total population Net migration rate PAKISTAN-2.17 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2011 est.)

PRACTICAL PRESENTATION OF AGE–SEX COMPOSITION OF A SOCIETY (MALE / FEMALE )

POPULATION STRUCTUREThe population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or given area

Population inFive YearAge bands

Usually, but not always,In % to make for easiercomparisonsbetween countries

OLD DEPENDANTS

ECONOMICALLYACTIVE

YOUNG DEPENDANTS

FEMALESTo the rightMALES

To the left

What Population Pyramids What Population Pyramids Show UsShow Us

KEYKEYslope of pyramid indicate the death rate

width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate

proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations

height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority)

"kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in death rate in the past

area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of differentpopulation age groups or different sex on one graph

The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country

Economically More Developed Country

Economically LessDeveloped Country

Population Pyramid of Nigeria (1995)

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAUSource: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed Countries: 2008

A broad based population pyramid is:•Usually Usually agriculturalagricultural with problems of with problems of overpopulationoverpopulation.•Many Dependents (mainly <15 years age)Many Dependents (mainly <15 years age)A BROAD-BASED PYRAMID means that POPULATION needs to:•increase food production•build more homes & schools•plan for more job opportunities for the young in future•implement birth control program /campaigns(challenges of a broad based population pyramid)(challenges of a broad based population pyramid)

Population Pyramid of Sweden (1995)

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

Population by Age and Sex, More Developed Countries: 2008

A NARROW BASED POPULATION PYRAMID MEANS:Birth rate and Death rate lowBirth rate and Death rate low

•Work out incentives to encourage more births

•Hiring foreign labour

•Proper medical services & health care for the aged

5 stages through which a nation passes during transition1)1) HIGH STATIONARY STAGE HIGH STATIONARY STAGE (↑ CBR & CDR) e.g Amazon

valley)2)2) EARLY EXPANDING STAGE EARLY EXPANDING STAGE (↑CBR & ↓CDR) e.g Bangladesh)3)3) LATE EXPANDING STAGE LATE EXPANDING STAGE (↓CBR & ↓↓ CDR)e.g

India/Pakistan)4)4) LOW STATIONARY STAGE LOW STATIONARY STAGE (↓CBR &↓ CDR) e.g. Sweden 0

GR)5)5) DECLINING STAGE DECLINING STAGE (↓↓ CBR & ↓CDR) e.g. Germany (–ve GR)

A look at global demographic situation suggests that some countries have passed through high fertility and high mortality condition to a low fertility and mortality condition both aiming at low growth of population. These two conditions are referred as old & new balance, with an in-between period of imbalance as described below:OLD

BALANCEHIGH FERTILITY

HIGH MORTALITY

NEW BALANCE

LOW FERTILITY

LOW MORTALITY

IMBALANCE HIGH FERTILITY

LOW MORTALITY

(POOR HEALTH CONDITION , NOT COMPFORTABLE LIFE STYLE)

GOOD HEALTH CONDITIONS, COMFORTABLE LIFE STYLE

(PERIOD OF RAPID NATURAL (PERIOD OF RAPID NATURAL INCREASE)INCREASE)

THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ; HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE (LATE EXPANDING)EXPANDING)


•Demographic gap Demographic gap is the difference between is the difference between birth rate birth rate and and death rate death rate that develops when a that develops when a country undergoes demographic transitioncountry undergoes demographic transition•In a demographic cycle, as the country develops In a demographic cycle, as the country develops and the living conditions improve, there is first a and the living conditions improve, there is first a decrease in the death rate in the population But decrease in the death rate in the population But the birth rate continues to remain at a high levelthe birth rate continues to remain at a high level•This results in a demographic gap and a This results in a demographic gap and a resultant increase in the total size of populationresultant increase in the total size of population•The demographic gap is maintained till the birth The demographic gap is maintained till the birth rate and death rates become equal and the rate and death rates become equal and the population size becomes stablepopulation size becomes stable

There is some merit in including or considering a Stage 5 today with a declining population

Population Pyramids ( Demographic Transition Models)

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

•Both birth rates andDeath rates are High•populationgrowth rates are slow but• population Is usually restored Due to high birth rate. Short life expectancy

Scotland before 1760New GuineaRemote parts ofAmazonia

Scotland 1760 - 1830Republic of Congo

•Population continuesto grow but at slowerrate. Low C Death Rate.Dramatically decliningCrude Birth Rate.

Scotland 1870 -1950Algeria, TunisiaMorocco

IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS•Low Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death RateHigher dependency ratioand longer life expectancyCrude Death Rate does Rise slightly because ofThe ageing population

Scotland today.Japan, USA

High stationary

•Population startsto grow at anexponential rate due to fall in Crude Death Rate. More living In middle age.•Life expectancy risesInfant mortality rate falls.

Early expanding Late expanding Late stationary

According to Malthusian theory of Malthusian theory of population increase population increase population

increase in geometric ratio geometric ratio where as food supply increase in arithmetic ratioarithmetic ratio. This

disharmony would lead to widespread povertypoverty and starvation which would only

be checked by natural occurrences such as disease, high infant mortality, famine, war or moral restraint. His main contribution is in the agricultural sector. According to this

theory there are two steps to control the population, PREVENTIVE AND POSITIVE PREVENTIVE AND POSITIVE CHECKCHECK.. preventive means control in birth rate, use of different methods to control birth and positive check means natural

calamities, war etc.

The population of Pakistan has gone up to 184 million this year from 119 million in 1990, a report said. The latest report of the State Bank of Pakistan said the country’s population has increased to 184 million this year with an annual growth rate of more than two per cent, which makes up for more than 2.5 per cent of the world's population.

According to the report, the country’s contribution towards world’s population increased from 2.25 percent in 1990 to 2.69 percent in 2010.

The News reported Friday that Pakistan has got the highest average fertility rate for 2005-10 along with the highest household size (6.8) and the second highest density after India amongst the six most populous countries. India has a population of about 1.2 billion people.

“This is despite the fact that various governments have tried to contain high population growth rate,” the bank report said.

The report went on to say that Pakistan is currently in the third Pakistan is currently in the third stage of demographic transition of moderate growthstage of demographic transition of moderate growth where birth rate and death rate both decline and the pace of increase in population gets slow.

URBANIZATION

• ↑ births•Rural migration•Attractive living•Employment opportunities•Health•Education•Transport•Entertainmentetc.

singapore

seattle

toronto

mumbai

1901 2001urbaurba

nn ruralrural urbaurbann ruralrural

11 % 89% 31% 69%

urban population: 36% urban population: 36% of total population (2010)of total population (2010)rate of urbanization: 3.1% annual rate of change rate of urbanization: 3.1% annual rate of change

(2010-15 est.) (2010-15 est.)

Net migration Rate:Net migration Rate:-2 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2012 est.)-2 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2012 est.)country comparison to the world: country comparison to the world: 164164

A community is called as Urban if :A community is called as Urban if : Population is > 5000 75% of male population is working in non-agricultural occupation Population density is at least 400/sq.kmPopulation ≥ 10 million Population ≥ 10 million megacity megacity

70609 19333 3.2 2.2 16 11 7 43 42 27 51 60 65 3.5 36 4.2 3.3

Population (thousands)

Population annual growth

rate (%)Crude death

rateCrude birth

rateLife

expectancy

Total fertility

rate

% of populati

on urbanized

Average annual growth rate of

urban population (%)2007

under 18 under 51970–1990

1990–2007 1970 1990 2007 1970 1990 2007 1970 1990 2007 2007 2007

1970–1990

1990–2007

SOME DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF PAISTAN

187,342,721 (July 2011 est.)

1.573%

6.92 deaths/1,0

00 population

24.81 births/1,0

00 populatio

n

total population: 65.99 Years male: 64.18 yrfemale: 67.9 yr

3.17 children born/woman

36%

URBAN+RURAL

1.573% (2011 est.)

190 190 (July 2012 est.)

24.3 6.8 2.2 -2 228.9

295.2

71 61.27

74 3.07

Total Midyear Population: Pakistan

Year Population

2012 190,291,129

Size = quantity of populationSize = quantity of populationComposition = quality of population

•Age•Sex•Literacy level•Dependency ratio•Occupation•Socio-economic status•Living conditions (housing)•Marital status•Language•Family size•Religion•Culture etc

study of factors responsible for the changes (size, study of factors responsible for the changes (size, composition, distribution) of population i.e.composition, distribution) of population i.e.MarriagesMarriages FertilityFertilityChild woman ratioChild woman ratioMortalityMortalityMigrationMigrationPopulation ExplosionPopulation Explosion

High birth rateHigh birth rateLow death rateLow death rate

Population stabilization Population stabilization (either↑ death rate or ↓ birth rate, as (either↑ death rate or ↓ birth rate, as death rate cannot be increase so birth rate has to be decreased by death rate cannot be increase so birth rate has to be decreased by birth control & non birth control measures)birth control & non birth control measures)

•Decrease frequency of natural Decrease frequency of natural calamitiescalamities•Advancements in medical sciencesAdvancements in medical sciences•Health educationHealth education•Better health care facilitiesBetter health care facilities•Launching of various national health Launching of various national health programsprograms•International aid etcInternational aid etc

•Physical hazards (housing , environment, pollution)•Psychological hazards•Social hazards (alcoholism, broken homes, corruption, divorces, drug abuse, gambling)• Anti-social activities ( theft, murder, sex-crimes (rape-prostitution) robbery, child-abuse, juvenile delinquency)•Miscellaneous hazards (STDs, malnutrition, infections, epidemics, HTN due to stress

Thus population explosion is not only a health problem but a social, economic and demographic problem also )

Age structure.The distribution of a population according to age, usually by 5-year age groups.Age-specific fertility rate.The number of births during a year to women in a particular age group, usually per 1,000 women in a 5-year age group at midyear.Aging.An increase in the proportion of the population in the older ages. May also be measured as an increase in the median age of the population.Births.The number of live births occurring during a given calendar year.Birth rate.The average annual number of births during a year per 1,000 population at

midyear. Also known as the crude birth rate.Coale-Demeny model life tables.A series of life tables depicting standard (or model) age patterns of mortality and changes in those patterns at different overall levels of mortality. These series were developed for four "regions" (North, East, South, and West) based on the degree to which the patterns reflected data from those regions of

Europe. The models were based on data from all continents, but primarily from Europe.

Cohort.A group of individuals born in the same calendar year or group of years. Also

referred to as a birth cohort.Components of change (of population).Fertility, mortality, and migration.Crude death rate.The average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at midyear.Death rate.The average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at

midyear. Also known as the crude death rate.Dependency ratios.A population’s dependency ratio, also known as the age dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio, is the combined child population (people under

age 15) and elderly population (people ages 65 and above) per 100 people ages 15-64 (people “of labor force age”).

The youth dependency ratio is the number of people under age 15 per 100 people ages 15-64.

The elderly, or old age, dependency ratio is the number of people 65 and over per 100 people 15-64.

Dependency ratios are also referred to as support ratios.Dependent age groups.People under age 15 and people 65 years of age or older.

Gross reproduction rate per woman.The average number of daughters that would be born alive to a hypothetical cohort

of women if they lived to the end of their reproductive years and if they experienced the some age-specific fertility throughout their lives that women in each age group experience in a given year or period of years.

Growth rate.The average annual percent change in the population, resulting from a surplus (or

deficit) of births over deaths and the balance of migrants entering and leaving a country. The rate may be positive or negative. Also known as population growth rate or average annual rate of growth.

Infant mortality rate.The number of deaths of infants under 1 year of age from a cohort of 1,000 live

births. Denoted 1q0 or IMR, it is the probability of dying between birth and exact age 1.

Life expectancy at birth.The average number of years a group of people born in the same year can be

expected to live if mortality at each age remains constant in the future.Life table.A statistical table that follows a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 people born at the

same time as they progress through successive ages, with the cohort reduced from one age to the next according to a set of death rates by age until all people eventually die.

Median age.The midpoint age that separates the younger half of a population from the older half.

Midyear population.The population estimate for July 1 of the given year.Modern methods of contraception.Condoms, IUD’s, pills, vaginal methods (spermicides, diaphragms, or caps),

injectables, and voluntary sterilization of a woman or her partner.More developed countries.The “more developed” countries and areas include all of North America and

Europe plus Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. This category matches the “more developed” classification employed by the United Nations.

Natural increase.The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths.Net migration rate.The difference between the number of migrants entering and those leaving a

country in a year, per 1,000 midyear population. May also be expressed in percent. A positive figure is known as a net immigration rate and a negative figure as a net emigration rate.

Net number of migrants.The difference between the number of migrants entering and those leaving a

country in a year. A positive figure is known as net immigration and a negative figure as net emigration.

Pandemic.A global epidemic.Population pyramid.A graphical representation of the age and sex distribution of a population. Numbers

or proportions of males and females in each age group are plotted as horizontal bars with the males on the left and females on the right. Pyramids may be constructed to show single years of age or, as with the IDB pyramids, 5-year age groups.

Rate of natural increase.The difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate, but usually

expressed as a percent rather than per 1,000 population.Sex ratio at birth.The ratio of male to female births.Total fertility rate.The average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to

the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given set of age-specific fertility rates.

Under-5 mortality.Number of deaths of children under 5 years of age from a cohort of 1,000 live births.

Denoted 5q0, it is the probability of dying between birth and exact age 5.Vital events.Births and deaths.

Demographic Indicators 2012 1995 2005 2015 2025

Population

Midyear population (in thousands) 190,291

134,185

169,279

199,086

228,385

Growth rate (percent) 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.3

Fertility

Total fertility rate (births per woman)

3.1 5.7 4.0 2.8 2.2

Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)

24 38 29 23 19

Births (in thousands) 4,624 5,155 4,941 4,495 4,380

Demographic Indicators 2012 1995 2005 2015 2025

Mortality Life expectancy at birth(years) 66 60 64 67 71

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)

61 96 76 56 40

Under 5 mortality rate(per 1,000 births)

81 137 103 73 51

Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)

7 11 8 6 6

Deaths (in thousands) 1,294 1,428 1,347 1,292 1,368Migration Net migration rate (per 1,000 population)

-2 0 -4 -2 -0

Net number of migrants(in thousands)

-381 32 -635 -307 -98

Rate at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of time. It is shown in % age per year .GR= CBR – CDR

POPULATION MOMENTUM = POPULATION x GROWTH RATE

If Pakistan fertility declines to replacement level, even then population of Pakistan will continue to grow for 40 years.

Country Population Country Population

China 1,311 Pakistan 166

India 1,122 Bangladesh 147

US 299 Russia 142

Indonesia 225 Nigeria 135

Brazil 187 Japan 128

Total number of children in a family

Sex Sex Ratio Ratio no of males / 100 females in a population

Most significant indicator of fertility is

net reproduction rate (NRR)

•The Net Reproduction Ratio Net Reproduction Ratio is the expected number of daughters, per newborn prospective mother, who may or may not survive to and through the ages of childbearing. •A stable populationstable population, one that has had constant crude birth and death rates for such long time that the percentage of people in every age class remains constant, or equivalently, the population pyramid has an unchanging structure.

A stationary population, one that is both stable and unchanging in size (the difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate is zero).

According to the national health policy , a sub-centre caters to population in hilly and tribal areas of ?

3000

•fats reduction•restrain smoking•regular physical exercise•dietary changes

A slum, as defined by the United Nations Human Settlements Program (UN–HABITAT), is a run-down area of a city characterized by substandard housing and squalor and lacking in tenure security. According to the United Nations, one billion people worldwide live in slums.

Dependency Ratio := Children + Elderly X 100

Working Age

= Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100 Pop 16 – 64 years

Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 83.34%Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5 %Dependency Ratio of Japan = 44 %

Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of males to females in the population & is calculated by taking the number of males in a population & dividing it by the number of females in the same populationSex Ratio = Number of Males X 100

Number of Females

No. of live births in a specified period at a specific place No. of live births in a specified period at a specific place x 100x 100No. of deaths at same place and periodNo. of deaths at same place and period

EXAMPLE: No. of live births in city (x) = 450No. of deaths in same city and period = 300V.I. = 450 / 300 x 100 = 150If V.I. = 100 (births = death population is neither increasing nor decreasing)If V.I. > 100 (births > deaths ; population increasing)If V.I. < 100 (births < deaths ; population decreasing)

Population Density = No. of persons / sq. mile Pakistan = 206

Population Change =Mortality + Fertility + (net) Migration

Pt 1 = Pt₀ + (B – D) + (IM - OM)Pt 1 = Future PopulationPt₀ = Present Population

Population change can be due to 1.Natural Reasons (NATURAL INCREASE)

Natural Increase = No. of live births (B) - No. of residents died (D); [ B-D]2.Migration

Net Migration = In migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM]

POPULATION GROWTH (PG) = NATURAL INCREASE + NET

MIGRATION

PG = (B –D) + (IM – OM)

Pt1 = Pt₀ (1 + r)t

WHERE

Pt ₀ = present population

Pt 1

= future population

r = growth rate per person (in proportion)t = no. of years between t₀ and t1 EXAMPLE : We want to calculate the population of a community in year 2012 (Pt1), Population of a community is 20,000 in year

2006 (Pt0 ) and annual GR is 3%

P(2012) = P (2006) (1+ 3 / 100)6

= 20000 (1+ 3 /100 )6 = 20000(1+0.030)6 = 23880 ORPt1 = Pt0 [ 1 + (GR / 100 x No. of years)] = 20000 [1+ (3/100 x 6)] = 20000 (1 + 0.18) = 23600

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

Time taken(approx.) for a population to double(approx.). Because population increase is on a compound interest formula. 1% / yr increase would cause the population to double in about 70 yrs.(by interpretation, observation and collection of last census data) If the population is increasing at 3% / yr. Then the doubling time will be 70 ÷3 = 23.3 yrs.PDT = 70 / GRPDT of Pakistan= 70/2.8 = 25 yrs. approxPDT of World = 70/1.3= 50 yrs. approx

Is achieved, when a couple has two births during their reproductive life, just replace to themselvesAt a community scale, the replacement level is considered when there are on an average 2.1 births / woman, to compensate for expected deaths.

•The replacement level fertility, the average number of children a woman must have in order to replace herself with a daughter in the next generation. For example the replacement level fertility in the US is 2.11. This means that 100 women will bear 211 children, 103 of which will be females. About 3% of the alive female infants are expected to decease before they bear children, thus producing 100 women in the next generation.•The gross reproduction rate, the number of daughters who would be born to a woman completing her reproductive life at current age-specific fertility rates.

Is characteristic of population growth when sharp decline in births does not bring in an immediate reduction in natural increase

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Currently data on population is utilized/used by;

Businesses Governments Academicians

Businesses use population data to;Identify potential markets & places to run advertisements (retail businesses).

Determine whether an area considered for a plant/factory has a sufficient labour force.

They also study population shifts for changes that could affect market for their products, (manufacturing businesses).

Governments at all levels also utilize population data for the following purposes:

1. For long range planning of various departments & government organizations.

2. For projecting the kind of public services that will be needed at various points in the future.

3. For monitoring changes in society such as decline or improvement in health, shifts in the structure of the family, alterations in ethnic relationships etc.

For health planning. Demographic data can assist in helping to plan by describing the following:

Uptake of health services in a country or an area.The usual presentation of illnesses in an area/country. By identification of the population’s perception of

illness & disease. By identifying the lifestyle & cultural practices of the

population. By the kind of encounters that the population has

with the services. By identifying the patterns of disease in the

population. By identifying the kind of alternate medicine being

utilized by the population.

Academicians use demographic data: To improve understanding of human society

by analyzing the consequences of social political & economic change brought about by population alterations. In so doing they

Help to forecast the future of the society. Assist governments in planning purposes.

Population-growth rate the rate at which a population grows each year (given period of time) % age / yr.

Rate of Natural Increase (the rate at which a population grows each year based solely on births and deaths, not migration)

Per Capita Income (the average amount of money each person in a country/region/home earns per year).PCI= Total income . Total population

Census is the procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information (massive country wide operation to consume enormous manpower and other resources) about the members of a given population. It is a regularly occurring and official count of a particular population. The term is used mostly in connection with national population and door to door censuses' (to be taken every 10 years according to United Nations recommendations), agriculture, and business censuses. The term itself comes from Latin: during the Roman Republic the census was a list which kept track of all adult males fit for military service.

Earliest record of census= 4000 BC in Babylonia, 3000 BC in china, 2500 BC in Egypt

Modern line ( scope extended beyond head counting) Canada in 1666 first conducted census followed by US 1790 and England 1801, India country wide operation started in 1881

De Facto (factually)De Facto (factually)(person is treated as a (person is treated as a resident where he is available at the time of resident where he is available at the time of contact, even he may be actually resident of contact, even he may be actually resident of some other place)some other place)

De Jure (legally)De Jure (legally)(person is treated as a resident (person is treated as a resident where he actually belongs to, even he may be where he actually belongs to, even he may be residing else where) residing else where)

India de Facto till 1931 and 1941 onwards de India de Facto till 1931 and 1941 onwards de jurejure

The first Pakistan Census after the proclamation of independence of Pakistan was conducted in 1951. It was decreed that censuses have to be carried out once in 10 years. The second census was conducted in 1961. However the third one was conducted in 1972 because of war with India. The fourth census was held in 1981.The fifth census was conducted delayed in March 1998. The sixth census of Pakistan is planned in October 2008. Pakistan's estimated population in Pakistan's estimated population in 2011 is over 187 million2011 is over 187 million

ERRORS (limitations) of CensusInfants are generally under enumeratedMany persons do not know their exact ageOld persons tend to add years to their actual ageInformation about handicapped persons is incompleteInformation about work status is distortedUSESProvision of demographic, social and economic data

of country, helps to plan health & welfare programs.Information on composition, size & distribution of

population, population trend, quality of lifeHelps to estimate mid-year population, pop. policies

Process of recording vital events that occur in a population from time to time; events registered relate to births, deaths & marriages.

Census and VR are inter related if census gives a snapshot VR gives a motion picture of that population by recording changes on continuous basis.

•The The crude birth rate (CBR)crude birth rate (CBR), , the annual number of the annual number of live births per 1000 people in specific area & time live births per 1000 people in specific area & time

•The The general fertility rategeneral fertility rate,,(GFR)(GFR) the annual number the annual number of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (often of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44) to 44) in in specific area & timespecific area & time

•age-specific fertility rates (ASFR)age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), , the annual the annual number of live births per 1000 women in particular age number of live births per 1000 women in particular age groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.)groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.) in specific area & in specific area & time time •The The crude death rate(CDR)crude death rate(CDR), , the annual number the annual number of deaths per 1000 people in specific area & time of deaths per 1000 people in specific area & time

• The The infant mortality rate (IMR)infant mortality rate (IMR), , the the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births in specific area & time year old per 1000 live births in specific area & time

• The The expectation of lifeexpectation of life (or life (or life expectancyexpectancy), ), the number of years which an the number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels. in specific live at present mortality levels. in specific area & time area & time

• The The total fertility rate (TFR)total fertility rate (TFR),,the number the number of live births per woman completing her of live births per woman completing her reproductive life, if her childbearing at each reproductive life, if her childbearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility age reflected current age-specific fertility rates in specific area & time rates in specific area & time

According to the Encyclopedia of International Development, the term demographic trap is used by demographers "to describe the combination of high fertility (birth rates) and declining mortality (death rates) in developing countries, resulting in a period of high population growth rate (PGR).“

High fertility combined with declining mortality happens when a developing country moves through the demographic transition of becoming developed.

Actuarial scienceActuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk assess risk in the insurance and finance industries

In actuarial science, a LIFE TABLELIFE TABLE (also called a mortality table or actuarial table) is a table which shows, for each age, what the probability is that a person of that age will die before his or her next birthday. From this starting point, a number of inferences can be derived.

the probability of surviving any particular year of age

remaining life expectancy life expectancy for people at different ages

Life tables can be constructed using projections of future mortality rates, but more often they are a snapshot of age-specific mortality rates in the recent past, and do not purport to be projections. For various reasons, such as advances in medicine, age-specific mortality rates vary over time.

Life tables are usually constructed separately for men and for women because of their substantially different mortality rates. Other characteristics can also be used to distinguish different risks, such as smoking status, occupation, and socio-economic class.

QALY’s: QALY’s: Quality-adjusted life years

DALY”s : DALY”s : disability-adjusted life years

POPULATION STRUCTUREThe population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or given area

Population inFive YearAge bands

Usually, but not always,In % to make for easiercomparisonsbetween countries

OLD DEPENDANTS

ECONOMICALLYACTIVE

YOUNG DEPENDANTS

FEMALESTo the rightMALES

To the left

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAUSource: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed Countries: 2008

Population Pyramid of Sweden (1995)

Lecture demography 2011 12

Healthcare

Transcript of Lecture demography 2011 12