Lecture 8: slides and notes on global energy supplies

H A&S 220c Fall 2004

• A&S 220c Energy and Environment: Life Under the Pale Sun• Essay/problems 3• Out: Tues 16 Nov 2004• Back: Tues 23 Nov 2004• In reading McNeill’s book, Something New Under the Sun, excerpts from Roberts’ The End of Oil

(handed out, see website) and now excerpts from Bjorn Lomborg’s Skeptical Environmentalist you get a wide range of views of the problem of global energy supplies. The conclusions of Lomborg are very different from most environmentalists and even from most scientists, whatever their leanings.

•• This week, let us focus on oil. During the coming week read the Lomborg sections just

handed out, and make notes on areas where he disagrees with Roberts and McNeill. The goal of your study is: “Is there an oil crisis?”

• If you find extra information, add this to the debate. Also use your own knowledge and observations of the environment to shape your discussion.

• Hand these notes in with enough text to make it a ‘1st draft’ of an essay about the future of oil, our dominant energy source. Length: 3 to 5 pages (1 ½ line spacing, for fontsize 12 Times New Roman).

• Notes: •Some important disagreement comes in areas very difficult for us to judge. For example, there are severe differences regarding estimates of oil reserves for future use…that is, how many barrels of oil will be accessible in the coming century, both ‘proven reserves’ and ‘undiscovered’ oil. Be sure to identify these differences in the above readings.

• •Sometimes we are fooled by being forced to answer the wrong question. In the debate over how big our energy supplies are, only a few people are saying, “Is this the right question, the most important issue?”. Suggest new questions that improve this debate (remember the quote on our website: “The problem is not that we are running out of oil, but that we are running out of environment.”)

• •Consider whether you are satisfied with basically economic arguments about the environment. Thus consider the difficulty in putting a dollar value on the environment, or parts of it when you see someone trying to do this. An economist, discussing the decimation of large whales in the ocean, once said, “When we put a high enough dollar value on whales, then they will be saved.” Is that convincing?

• •Make a judgment over the issue of anthropocentric…that is, human-centered, judgments about the environment: how do the different authors approach the problem of valuing ecosystems and the physical environment, as contrasted by valuing human prosperity. See p.12 of ‘The Litany’ of Lomborg. It is possible to argue that in our own selfish interest we should preserve the vitality of other species and of the physical environment.

•

• •Update some of the trends under discussion, for example the price of a barrel of oil, and compare with the texts (today’s oil price has ‘spiked’ upward and may fall back down, but it is worth trying).

• •Avoid knee-jerk environmentalist responses. All the above authors have important things to tell us, even though they disagree strongly.

• •Challenge assumptions.• •Challenge data. Some of the most strident criticisms (in Scientific American

magazine and Nature magazine) accuse Lomborg of the selective use of numbers: some inaccurate, and some being isolated examples that run counter to the general trend.

• •Consider the web of interactions that is Gaia…our biological system riding on a small planet. When Lomborg discusses the amount of fish being caught (p30, of The Litany) he says that the world fish catch has increased by 75% (he later corrected this to 55%) since 1975. However he includes fish farming in his curves; the more mainline Worldwatch Institute view (run by Lester Brown, whom Lomborgroundly attacks) emphasizes the leveling off and beginning decline of the catch of wild fish. Cod have disappeared from the western North Atlantic Ocean, and from New York to Newfoundland fishermen are out of work. And fish farming is expanding greatly yet there have been major setbacks, with disease infecting fish farms, serious local pollution, and escaped ‘farm-salmon’ interbreeding with wild salmon, with unpredictable consequences. Thus we add the next idea:

• •Consider both global and local impacts of changes in energy, food, and other natural resources. Lomborg in his introduction does advocate this, comparing the bad news of the caloric intake of people in the African state of Burundi with the good news about Chad.

• •What is the metric? Lomborg says the things may be ‘bad’, say with access to clean water but they are ‘better’ than in the past. He also argues that with rapidly increasing population, one should consider the % of people who are badly off, not the absolute numbers (p.5 of The Litany).

• •Beware of this evasive tactic: the long argument that recyclable toothbrushes are trivially unimportant (p10 The Litany) deflects our attention from the huge problem of waste management and toxic waste and limited resources to continue producing it.

•

• On p14 of The Litany, Lomborg confronts the claim that local ecosystems are beginning to collapse (Worldwatch Inst.); the example of subSaharan Africa is given, where life expectancy is falling as AIDS increases to decimate the population. Lomborg says this has nothing to do with overdevelopment and fragile ecosystems. However if you look at the history of Sahel drought in Africa, and of AIDS, you see a devastating confluence of several kinds of disaster: from overstressed farmland, drought, disease, economic dislocation and civil wars. It ain’t simple. But it also is not good. And, some authors (e.g., Richard Preston, The Hot Zone), ask whether AIDS might indeed have emerged from the jungles of Africa when they became an overstressed habitat for primates.

• •Beware of predictions without some idea of their reliability. Test this by seeing what has happened since the book was published. The price of oil comes up often; on p.14 of The Litany Lomborg says “ the US Energy Information Agency expects an almost steady oil price over the next 20 years of about $22 a barrel.” This autumn that price has ranged from $40 to $55 a barrel. It may come down again, and in inflation adjusted dollars it is still cheap. But it is important to see how the system can be upset by wars and terrorism as well as oil reserves.

• •Related to this, in the web of interactions that determine our comfort level and that of Gaia, be aware that the environment is close to the root of social injustice, poverty, and ethnic wars (often disputes over land and resources), and not just the price of gasoline; look for concrete examples relating to this.

• •Consider the totally unexpected. The ozone hole was a near total surprise (though Paul Crutzen won a Nobel Prize for predicting the effect of human generated CFCs on the ozone layer high in the atmosphere). Somewhere in the text Lomborggives statistics for literacy and starvation in Iraq. Of course he did not know that some 100,000 Iraqis would die in a war soon after his book was published, and did not acknowledge that, we are told, a million or more Iraqi children died in the past decade due to poor water supplies and lack of medicine.

Notes: •Some important disagreement comes in areas very difficult for us to judge. For example,there are severe differences regarding estimates of oil reserves for future use…that is, how manybarrels of oil will be accessible in the coming century, both ‘proven reserves’ and ‘undiscovered’ oilBe sure to identify these differences in the above readings.

•Sometimes we are fooled by being forced to answer the wrong question.In the debate over how big our energy supplies are, only a few people are saying, “Is this the right

question, the most important issue?”. Suggest new questions that improve this debate (rememberthe quote on our website: “The problem is not that we are running out of oil, but that we are running outof environment.”)

•Consider whether you are satisfied with basically economic arguments aboutthe environment. Thus consider the difficulty in putting a dollar value on the environment, or partsof it when you see someone trying to do this. An economist, discussing the decimation of largewhales in the ocean, once said, “When we put a high enough dollar value on whales, then theywill be saved.” Is that convincing?

•Make a judgment over the issue of anthropocentric…that is, human-centeredjudgments about the environment: how do the different authors approach the problem of valuing ecosystemsand the physical environment, as contrasted by valuing human prosperity. See p.12 of ‘The Litany’ of LomborgIt is possible to argue that in our own selfish interest we should preserve the vitality of other species and of the

physical environment.

• Also…– work out your personal energy profile and

then include the ‘secondary energy implicit in the goods and services you buy

- intercompare numbers: for example, the gross energy useof the world vs. your estimate of your personal energy budget.

- Consider collateral damage: carbon, pollutants in air and water…heavy metals and PCBs and lead that accumulate in tissue and small

(micron size) particles that accumulate deep in the lungs; noise, crowding…- research the energy profile of the US and compare with that of

a less-developed country: choose one and find its energyuse and GDP statistics. If possible distinguish betweenrural and urban, though this may be difficult. Greenland?

- solutions: what if our fuel economy for cars increased from 20 to 30 mpg?….to 60 mpg? Impact on imports of oil, drilling…

- visualize the future: if 50% more energy will be demanded after 30 years, what are the likely consequences?

inevitable surprises: Iraq and ….?- quality of life vs. GDP ; is economic rationalization everything?

B. Lomborg, Skeptical Environmentalist

B. Lomborg, Skeptical Environmentalist

price this week

Source: Skeptical Environmentalist, B. Lomborg.

//arts.bev.net/roperldavid/minerals

Oil and gas production estimates

30

Gb/yr

1930 20502000

www.asponews.org/ ASPO.newsletter.030.php

IMMEDIATE RELEASE : OCTOBER 11, 2001NEW LOOK AT THE STATE OF THE WORLDSweden leads, Canada ranks 7th, and the United States, 27th“NO COUNTRY KNOWS HOW TO BE GREEN WITHOUT GOING INTO THE RED”

OTTAWA -- Canada is one of only 37 countries that are well on their way to striking a good balance between a healthy population and a healthy environment, reports The Wellbeing of Nations, a new analysis of the state of the world launched today in Washington. But to achieve this balance, Canada must greatly improveits track record on the environment. The author of this analysis on sustainability, Canadian Robert Prescott-Allen, takes a sharp look at how nations deal with both human and environmental health. “No country knows how to be green without going into the red,” he explains. “Nations with a high standard of living impose excessive strains onthe environment, and the ones with low demands on the ecosystem are trapped in poverty.” Mr. Prescott-Allen is Principal of PADATA, a consultancy firm based in Victoria. The Wellbeing of Nations surveys 180 countries using the Wellbeing Assessment, a unique method of measuring human and ecosystem wellbeing developedwith the support of Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the World Conservation Union (IUCN). The new tool gives equal weight to people and the environment. It covers a wider range of human and ecological concerns than other yardsticks such as the Gross Domestic Product, theHuman Development Index, or the Environmental Sustainability Index. It includes health, knowledge, freedom, equity, and security, as well as land, air, water, and the diversity of plants, animals, and habitats. This new analysis was supported by IDRC because it is a significant contribution to the debate on how to measure progress towards sustainability. This toolmakes it easier for communities to conduct their own evaluation of their population and environment and to improve conditions without further destruction of the ecosystem. According to Prescott-Allen, who has been a specialist in sustainability for twenty years, Canada should build on its strengths ¾ health, education, and land ¾ and improve its Ecosystem Wellbeing Index by reducing carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption, protecting wild plant species, and boosting agriculturaldiversity. Canada should also better its Human Wellbeing Index by closing the gap between rich and poor and improving the equality of women. As Robert Prescott-Allen points out, “attaining a high quality of life for a low environmental price is difficult to do, but possible. The key conditions for combining high human wellbeing and low ecosystem stress are freedom, good governance, and education. The opportunity and capacity to make sounddecisions about goals and how to achieve them is crucial.” The Wellbeing of Nations is co-published by Canada’s International Development Research Centre and Island Press, with the support of the World ConservationUnion, and the International Institute for Environment and Development. The International Development Research Centre (IDRC) is a Crown corporation created by the Parliament of Canada in 1970 to help scientists and communitiesin the developing world to find solutions to their social, economic, and environmental problems through research.The World Conservation Union (IUCN) was founded in 1948 to influence, encourage, and assist societies throughout the world to conserve the integrity and diversity of nature and to ensure that any use of natural resources is equitable and ecologically sustainable. Founded in 1971, the International Institute forEnvironment and Development (IIED) is an independent, non-profit organization promoting sustainable patterns of world development through collaborativeresearch, policy studies, networking, and knowledge dissemination.

Copyright 2000 © International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada media@idrc.ca | 11 Oct 2001

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Wellbeing IndexAverage of (1) the Human Wellbeing Index and (2) the Ecosystem Wellbeing Index. The HumanWellbeing Index is an average of indicators of health (life expectancy) and population (total fertility rate), wealth

(householdand national indicators), knowledge (education and communication indicators), community (freedom,

governance, peace and order indicators), and equity (household and gender equity indicators). TheEcosystem Wellbeing Index is an average of indicators of land (land diversity and quality indicators),water (use and quality indicators), air (global and national indicators), species and genes (biodiversityindicators), and resource use (energy and materials consumption indicators). A higher value indicatesgreater wellbeing.

Year: mid- to late 1990sCountry Coverage: 180 Note that the USA is 25th in rank, when these indices of prosperity are considered.

Prescott-Allen, Robert. 2001. The Wellbeing of Nations: A Country-by-Country Index of Quality of Life and the Environment. Washington: Island Press

Ecological Footprint, There are various calculators on the Web (find with Google) which suggest how many acres or hectares (1 hectare= 10000 sq meters = 2.471 acres) are needed to support your lifestyle. Other siteshelp you calculate your personal energy profile or your carbon balance.

Country Value Year Rank

Sweden 64 mid-to late 1990s 1

Finland 63 mid-to late 1990s 2

Norway 63 mid-to late 1990s 2

Iceland 62 mid-to late 1990s 4

Austria 61 mid-to late 1990s 5

Canada 60 mid-to late 1990s 6

Dominica 60 mid-to late 1990s 6

Switzerland 60 mid-to late 1990s 6

Belize 57 mid-to late 1990s 9

Guyana 57 mid-to late 1990s 9

Germany 57 mid-to late 1990s 11

Uruguay 57 mid-to late 1990s 11

Denmark 56 mid-to late 1990s 13

New Zealand 56 mid-to late 1990s 14

Suriname 55 mid-to late 1990s 15

Ireland 54 mid-to late 1990s 16

Latvia 54 mid-to late 1990s 16

Australia 54 mid-to late 1990s 18

Peru 53 mid-to late 1990s 19

Slovenia 53 mid-to late 1990s 19

Cyprus 53 mid-to late 1990s 21

Cyprus 53 mid-to late 1990s 21

Japan 53 mid-to late 1990s 21

Lithuania 53 mid-to late 1990s 21

Saint Kitts and Nevis 53 mid-to late 1990s 21

France 52 mid-to late 1990s 25

Grenada 52 mid-to late 1990s 25

Italy 52 mid-to late 1990s 25

Saint Lucia 52 mid-to late 1990s 25

United States 52 mid-to late 1990s 25

Belgium 52 mid-to late 1990s 30

Czech Republic 52 mid-to late 1990s 30

Greece 52 mid-to late 1990s 30

Puerto Rico 52 mid-to late 1990s 30

United Kingdom 52 mid-to late 1990s 30

Botswana 51 mid-to late 1990s 35

Armenia 50 mid-to late 1990s 36

Luxembourg 50 mid-to late 1990s 36

Netherlands 50 mid-to late 1990s 36