Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical

Solar irradiance

Measured by satellites since 1970s and proxy measurements

The sun has a well-known eleven-year irradiance (Wm-2) cycle that produces a ~008 variation in output

Studies show that solar variability has played a role in past climate changes For example a decrease in solar activity is thought to have triggered the Little Ice Age between approximately 1650 and 1850

httpclimatejplnasagovcauses

As part of its 11-year cycle the sun is now ramping up after an unusually long lull

Solar irradiance

Since 1750 the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly

Climate models that include solar irradiance changes canrsquot reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases

Warming is observed near the surface (greenhouse effect) rather than all layers of the atmosphere (which would indicate a contribution from solar activity)

Milankovitch cycles

Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate

The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles

Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years

Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years

Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years

Solar irradiance

Measured by satellites since 1970s and proxy measurements

The sun has a well-known eleven-year irradiance (Wm-2) cycle that produces a ~008 variation in output

Studies show that solar variability has played a role in past climate changes For example a decrease in solar activity is thought to have triggered the Little Ice Age between approximately 1650 and 1850

httpclimatejplnasagovcauses

As part of its 11-year cycle the sun is now ramping up after an unusually long lull

Solar irradiance

Since 1750 the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly

Climate models that include solar irradiance changes canrsquot reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases

Warming is observed near the surface (greenhouse effect) rather than all layers of the atmosphere (which would indicate a contribution from solar activity)

Milankovitch cycles

Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate

The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles

Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years

Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years

Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years

As part of its 11-year cycle the sun is now ramping up after an unusually long lull

Solar irradiance

Since 1750 the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly

Climate models that include solar irradiance changes canrsquot reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases

Warming is observed near the surface (greenhouse effect) rather than all layers of the atmosphere (which would indicate a contribution from solar activity)

Milankovitch cycles

Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate

The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles

Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years

Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years

Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years

Solar irradiance

Since 1750 the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained constant or increased slightly

Climate models that include solar irradiance changes canrsquot reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases

Warming is observed near the surface (greenhouse effect) rather than all layers of the atmosphere (which would indicate a contribution from solar activity)

Milankovitch cycles

Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate

The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles

Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years

Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years

Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years

Milankovitch cycles

Changes in the Earthrsquos movement relative to the sun have an effect upon climate

The episodic behavior of glacial and interglacial periods have primarily been caused by these cycles

Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years

Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years

Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years

Eccentricity ndash (0017) orbit about the Sun bull 100000 years

Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years

Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years

Obliquity ndash Earthrsquos tilt (2344˚)bull 41000 years

Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years

Precession ndash Earthrsquos ldquowobblerdquobull 23000 years

Thermohaline (THC)

Cold salty deep currentCold salty deep current

sea-to-air heat transfersea-to-air heat transfer

Warm shallow currentWarm shallow current

The cold salty water masses form in only two locations 1 Greenland known as the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) 2 Antarctica known as the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)

bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)

bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean

bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific

Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate

bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions

bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America

THC vs MOC

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)

bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean

bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes

bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe

bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability

in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia

bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years

NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low

bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track

bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland

bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index

phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low

bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway

bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe

bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions

bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

bull Wind-driven surface currents (eg Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean bull Cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes (forming North Atlantic Deep Water)

bull This dense water then flows into the ocean basins bullThe bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean

bull The oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1600 years) upwell in the North Pacific

Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate

bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions

bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America

THC vs MOC

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)

bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean

bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes

bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe

bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability

in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia

bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years

NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low

bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track

bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland

bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index

phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low

bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway

bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe

bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions

bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Younger Dryas ndash Implications for climate

bull 12000 years ago Earth was beginning to warm at the end of the Wisconsin glacial age but rapidly fell back into a 1300 year period of cold in the high latitudes Some northern regions returned to peak ice age conditions

bull The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America

THC vs MOC

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)

bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean

bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes

bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe

bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability

in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia

bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years

NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low

bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track

bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland

bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index

phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low

bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway

bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe

bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions

bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

THC vs MOC

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)

bull The MOC only occurs around the meridian - hence the name - and so is confined to the Atlantic Ocean

bull Published data on the MOCs existence whilst the thermohaline circulation remains a purely theoretical conjecture

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes

bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe

bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability

in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia

bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years

NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low

bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track

bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland

bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index

phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low

bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway

bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe

bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions

bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

bull The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1degF between extremes

bull The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere in particular North America and Europe

bull It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability

in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia

bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years

NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low

bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track

bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland

bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index

phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low

bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway

bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe

bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions

bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)bull The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability

in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia

bull The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low The corresponding index varies from year to year but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years

NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low

bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track

bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland

bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index

phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low

bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway

bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe

bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions

bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

NAO Positive Mode bull The positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low

bull The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track

bull This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland

bull The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index

phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low

bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway

bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe

bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions

bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

NAO Negative Mode bull The negative NAO index

phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low

bull The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway

bull They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe

bull The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions

bull Greenland however will have milder winter temperatures

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

bull The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases

bull The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude

bull The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern Eastern US and western Europe and storms bring rain to the Mediterranean

bull The positive phase brings the opposite conditions

bull The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the AO

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

+ _

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years

During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Warm Phase

Cold Phase

Anomaly patterns in Wintertime SST

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

ENSO- and PDO-related climate anomalies share very similar spatial patterns over North America and the North Pacific Ocean

Warm phase ENSO (El Nintildeo) + PDO years gtgt

bull Winter seasons tend to be warm and anomalously dry in the Pacific Northwest causing reduced stream flow and snowpack

bull Coastal ocean temperatures are warmer than average all along the west coast of North America

bull During cold phase ENSO (La Nintildea) years and negative PDO years the opposite climate anomalies are typically observed

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Warm Phase PDO and ENSO

Note that the main center of warming for the PDO (left) is in the north Pacific while the main warming of action for ENSO is in the equatorial Pacific (right)

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea

latest images from the OSTMJason-2 satellite

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

ENSO

bull The interaction of the atmosphere and ocean is an essential part of El Nintildeo and La Nintildea events (the term coupled system is often used to describe the mutual interaction between the ocean and atmosphere)

bull During an El Nintildeo sea level pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the western Pacific while the opposite tends to occur during a La Nintildea

bull This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation often abbreviated as simply the SO

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

ENSO

bull A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin Australia

bull Since El Nintildeo and the Southern Oscillation are related the two terms are often combined into a single phrase the El Nintildeo-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short Often the term ENSO Warm Phase is used to describe El Nintildeo and ENSO Cold Phase to describe La Nintildea

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

El Nino or La Nina

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

El Nino or La Nina

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

For referenceDecember 2009

Eastward progression of a strong wave of warm water known as a Kelvin wave

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Past (222010)

bull El Nintildeo is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

bull Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 10ordmC - 25ordmC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

bull Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts El Nintildeo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

Latest weekly SST departures are

Nintildeo 4 13ordmC

Nintildeo 34 12ordmC

Nintildeo 3 07ordmC

Nintildeo 1+2 04ordmC

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

During El Nintildeo the trade winds weaken along the equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific

Anomalous warming in the central andeastern Pacific ensues as warm water in the western Pacific migrates eastward and upwelling is reduced

The trade winds normally pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific while upwelling colder water in the east from below the surface along the equator and off the west coast of South America

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

SST SOI bull Typically sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of

the equatorial Pacific are used to define El Nintildeo periodsbull Alternatively an index known as the Southern Oscillation

Index (SOI) is used based on the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Australia ndash The advantage of the SOI is that records at those two

locations go back a century while we have only a few decades of SST observations in mid-ocean

ndash Then the correlation of one of these indices with say rainfall in California is the basis for a forecast of the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during an El Nintildeo winter

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Temperature and SOI

T

SOI

httpiricolumbiaeduclimateENSObackgroundmonitoringhtml

Nino 34 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)

The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)

In recent decades indices based on sea surface temperature have come into common usage because satellites and an observing network of buoys in the equatorial Pacific now allow for collection real time high quality data The network of buoys referred to is the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

HurricanesHurricanes

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Global TC Frequency 1970-2006Global TC Frequency 1970-2006

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

HurricanesHurricanes

Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

An aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity combining frequency intensity and duration of hurricanes in a single index

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Volcanoes

Icelands Eyjafjallajokull

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Volcanoes

bull Particles and SO2 may reach the stratosphere 22 km

bull Photo chemical conversion to SO4 aerosols

bull Transported globally cools the surface direct effect

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Krakatoa Debris encircled the equator over the next 13 days Global temperatures were lowered about 09degF (05degC) and did not return to normal until five years later (Mt St Helenrsquos lt02degF Produced tsunamisrsquo as high as ~140 feet Perhaps twice as powerful as the largest hydrogen bomb - among the most violent volcanic events in modern and recorded history Edvard Munchrsquos The Scream

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Mount Tambora An active stratovolcano also known as a composite volcano on the island of Sumbawa Indonesia Year Without Summer ndash 1816 Eruption from Mt Tambora (1815) and solar activity assumed to be the culpritIt had roughly four times the energy of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption meaning that it was equivalent to an 800 megaton explosion

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment

Reading Assignment

bull NH Winter 2009 and NAO

• Lecture 3 Megatrends Part I - Physical
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Slide 7
• Slide 8
• Slide 9
• Thermohaline (THC)
• Slide 11
• Slide 12
• Slide 13
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• NAO Positive Mode
• NAO Negative Mode
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• Slide 22
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms during a cool or negativeldquo phase the opposite pattern occurs
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Slide 25
• Slide 26
• ENSO 2010-2011 gtgt La Nintildea
• ENSO
• Slide 29
• Slide 30
• Slide 31
• Slide 32
• Slide 33
• Slide 34
• Typical US Temperature Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Nintildea Winters
• Slide 36
• SST SOI
• Slide 38
• Temperature and SOI
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array
• Slide 42
• Slide 43
• Slide 44
• Slide 45
• Slide 46
• Volcanoes
• Krakatoa
• Mount Tambora
• Reading Assignment