Lecture 1 - February 4 2015

8/9/2019 Lecture 1 - February 4 2015

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PPOL‐G 704 Research

Methods IIPublic Policy PhD program

Department of Public Policy and Public AffairsMichael P. Johnson, PhD

Spring 2015



Readings and lecture design• Required readings

• In bookstore:

• Stokey, Elizabeth and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. A Primer

for

Policy

Analysis. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.

• Hedrick, Terry E., Bickman, Leonard and Debra J. Rog. 1993. Applied

Research Design: A Practical Guide. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE

Publications.

• On Blackboard:

• Research papers and book excerpts

• Lecture format

•

Discussion of readings (60 – 90 minutes)• Discussion of assignments/paper components (60 – 90 minutes)

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Administrative details• Web resources

•

Accommodations• Written work

• Student conduct F e b r u a r y 4 ,

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Course paper requirements• A contemporary, policy-relevant problem

• A theoretical framework that generates propositions or

hypotheses that may be rigorously evaluated• Collection of data, from secondary and/or primary sources

• Support for propositions or hypotheses using models and

methods from core Public Policy PhD program courses, or

other well-known methods

• Discussion of significance of findings, limitations of analysis

and next steps

• 15 – 25 pages, 1.5-spaced, exclusive of figures, tables,

references and appendices

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Paper milestones• February 18: Paper prospectus

•

March 4: Literature review and theory development• April 8: Data sources and analytic methods

• April 15: Paper outline

• April 29: Preliminary findings

• May 18: Final presentation

• May 22: Final paper

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Introduction to Policy Choices• Stokey and Zeckhauser provide a normative, rationalist view of

policy analysis

• Is this reasonable? Appropriate? In what contexts?

• What other frameworks of policy analysis seem appropriate to

your research worldview?

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Policy Analytic Framework • Establish the context

•

Identify alternatives• Predict consequences

• Value outcomes

• Make a choice

• How do these steps conform to your own experience, or

intuition?

•How might you apply these steps to your own chosen researchtopics?

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Key Notions for ‘Rational’

Policy Research• Identify alternatives

• Build models

• Multiple objectives, multiple stakeholders

• Role of uncertainty

•

Practice model-building

• Consider a policy problem that is important to you. How

important are (should be) these concerns?

• How might one practice policy analysis in day-to-day life?

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Introduction to Models• A model is a simplified representation of some aspect of the

real world

• Models enable an analyst to identify the consequences of

particular policy choices

• Types of models:

• Physical model• Diagrammatic model

• Conceptual model

• What models have you encountered?

• How might you represent a problem of interest to you in

terms of models?

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Model Classes• Descriptive model

• Prescriptive model

• Deterministic model

• Probabilistic model

What is the ‘right’ model?

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Model: Property value impacts

of foreclosed housing

• p: foreclosed property

• h1, h2: proximate properties

• y1, y2: discounts on value of

proximate properties due to

proximity to p

• C: Current on mortgage

• DQ: Delinquent on mortgage• DF: Mortgage in default

• FC: Foreclosure

• REO: Real-estate owned

Source: Johnson, M.P., Solak, S., Drew, R.B. and J. Keisler. 2013. Property Value Impacts of Foreclosed Housing Acquisitions

under Uncertainty. Socio‐Economic Planning Sciences 47(4): 292 – 308..

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Model: Heroin‐using population

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Model: Equipment replacement

decision

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Source: Stokey and Zeckhauser, p. 10



Model: Social networks

Source: Zheng, K., Padman, R., Krackhardt, D., Johnson, M.P. and H.S. Diamond. 2010. Social Networks and Physician Adoption

of Electronic Health Records: Insights from a Pilot Study. Journal

of

the

American

Medical

Informatics

Association

17: 328 –336.

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Benefits and Costs of Models• Benefits

• Focus on essential features of a complex situation

• Allows experimentation

• Facilitates communication

• ….

• Costs

• Complexity

• Difficulty in establishing causality

• Misuse

• …

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Semester paper• Primary goal of course is to write a complete, scholarly paper

• Reflects increased importance of completed scholarship in

doctoral study in advance of dissertation proposal• What ideas do you have about a topic for your semester

paper?

Semester paper first assignment (due February 18):

Paper prospectus (1 page):

Topic

Goal

Research question

Data

Methods

Anticipated research questions

Research significance

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Semester project issues• Motivation: What is the importance of the problem you will study?

Of the findings you hope to derive?

• Theory: Can you present a stylized representation of the real-world

phenomenon you will study?• Methods: Will your paper use one analytic method, or more than

one?

• Data:

•

Will your paper use one data source, or more than one?• Will your paper use primary data, secondary data, or both?

• Analysis:

• Will you present descriptive, exploratory, prescriptive analysis or acombination?

• Can your paper preview results using a truncated or pilot dataset(s)?

• Discussion:

• What limitations can you anticipate for your research?

• What are some potential extensions?

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Lecture 1 - February 4 2015

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