Pakistan’s Reliance on Afghanistan Pakistan’s Reliance on Afghanistan as it’s Strategic depth- a mythas it’s Strategic depth- a myth

Durand Line in HistoricalDurand Line in HistoricalPerspective and Present Perspective and Present

ConcernsConcerns

SequenceSequence

Background

Observationsand

Recommendations

Current Situation and Concerns

2,640 km (1,519 mile)

THE DURAND LINE AGREEMENT

November 12, 1893

Each party pledged, “not to exercise interference in the territories

lying beyond this line”.

Amir Abdur Rehman Sir Mortimer Durand

Tribal ResentmentTribal Resentment

Major Hurdle

AFGHANISTAN’S CLAIMS

Denouncing the Treaty

Greater Pakhtunistan

Unilateral Cancellation of the Agreement

Expiration of Agreement after Lapse of Hundred Years

Free Movement across the Durand Line

PAKISTAN’S STANCE

International Boundary

Durand Accord specified no time limits

Tribal Allegiance to Pakistan 1946-47

Current SituationCurrent Situation

China

Russia

Iran

United States

India

Major Powers

War on Terror

Operations along

Durand line

Indian Influence In Afghanistan

Opening up of twofronts

Porous Border

Stable and Pakistan Friendly Govt. in Afghanistan

Drug Flow

Major Concerns

Afghan Refugees

Pashtun Nationalism

GWOT

South Asia’s Newest Trouble Spot

Observations Observations andand

RecommendationsRecommendations

A] To The Government Of Pakistan

It must be demarcated wholly and officially

Pak-Afghan border

More controlled crossing points

Repatriation Of Afghan refugees

Keep a check on increasing Indian influence

U.S. security assistance for the counter-terrorism operations

Use of renewed alliance with the international community

B] FATA SPECIFICB] FATA SPECIFIC

Development projects being initiated now, must have consistency with long-term aims

The United States And

The International Community

U.S. must pursue to resolve and complete the border demarcations

Frequent border meetings and sharing of intelligence

U.S.-led coalition forces establish posts on the Afghanistan side of the frontier to seal the border

Build a truly national army for Afghanistan, and extend essential infrastructure

Must understand that it does not suit Pakistan's strategic interests to have hostile governments on both borders

Extend support for better development in FATA

ConclusionConclusion

It is a time of coexistence, reconciliation, and negotiation

Afghanistan and Pakistan must cooperate for peace and stability in the region

Thank Thank YouYou

SequenceSequence

Strategic importance of Afghanistan.Strategic importance of Afghanistan.

Back ground of Pak-Afghan relationsBack ground of Pak-Afghan relations

Concept of strategic depth Concept of strategic depth

What Pakistan should do? What Pakistan should do?

Strategic importance of AfghanistanStrategic importance of Afghanistan

Geography of Geography of Afghanistan and Afghanistan and international game for oilinternational game for oil

As trade route to CARsAs trade route to CARsBeing neighbor of Being neighbor of

powers like Russia and powers like Russia and ChinaChina

Background of Pak-Afghan RelationsBackground of Pak-Afghan Relations

Relations are tense right from 1947Relations are tense right from 1947More hostile enemy on eastern borderMore hostile enemy on eastern borderIn 1979, with Russian aggression of In 1979, with Russian aggression of

Afghanistan, Pakistan became a front line state Afghanistan, Pakistan became a front line state in cold war against Russiain cold war against Russia

At this juncture Pakistan perceived At this juncture Pakistan perceived Afghanistan as it strategic depth.Afghanistan as it strategic depth.

Concept of “strategic depth”Concept of “strategic depth”

This loosely defined concept is more of a This loosely defined concept is more of a stretch in strategic imagination, conjuring up stretch in strategic imagination, conjuring up an outmoded image of a Napoleonic an outmoded image of a Napoleonic maneuvers—trading space to fight back.maneuvers—trading space to fight back.

Military strategy in this day and age Military strategy in this day and age especially in the nuclear context has changed especially in the nuclear context has changed the environment and also the concepts of war the environment and also the concepts of war fightingfighting

( General Mirza Aslam Beg "Afghanistan Turmoil and regional ( General Mirza Aslam Beg "Afghanistan Turmoil and regional security Imperatives," paper read at conference in Tehran security Imperatives," paper read at conference in Tehran

December 22, 2002.)December 22, 2002.)

Pakistan’s reliance on Afghanistan Pakistan’s reliance on Afghanistan as strategic depthas strategic depth

The strategic depth notion is simply divorced The strategic depth notion is simply divorced from reality. Pakistan's life-line from reality. Pakistan's life-line communications lie close and parallel to its communications lie close and parallel to its border with India. Pakistan will cease to exist border with India. Pakistan will cease to exist if it allows a deep thrust by India into its if it allows a deep thrust by India into its territory. territory.

General (retired) Aslam BegGeneral (retired) Aslam Beg

Pakistan’s reliance on Afghanistan as strategic depth contd…Pakistan’s reliance on Afghanistan as strategic depth contd…

Afghanistan has always been quasi-hostile, too Afghanistan has always been quasi-hostile, too unstable and tribal for any sane leader to unstable and tribal for any sane leader to contemplate putting strategic assets in that contemplate putting strategic assets in that place.place.

General (retd) Aslam BegGeneral (retd) Aslam Beg

What Pakistan should do?What Pakistan should do?

the strategic depth policy-a myththe strategic depth policy-a myth

and proved counter productive.and proved counter productive.Afghanistan as a strategic partner Afghanistan as a strategic partner minimize Indian influence in Afghanistan.minimize Indian influence in Afghanistan.stable government in Afghanistan stable government in Afghanistan The recent loya jirgaThe recent loya jirga

Discussion Discussion

Q & AQ & A