Lebanon: Country Policy Paper - Evaluation of the NEEAP ...€¦ · the NEEAP. No enforcement or...

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Mitigation Enabling Energy Transition in the MEDiterranean region

Lebanon: Country Policy Paper -

Evaluation of the NEEAP 2011-2015

Adel Mourtada, Energy and Climate Change Expert, ALMEE

October 3, 2018

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Content

1. Country Overview

2. Energy Efficiency Strategy / Policy

3. Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)

4. Conclusion

The findings, conclusions and interpretations expressed in this document are those of the author alone and should in no way be taken to reflect the policies or opinions of the European Commission.

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Country Overview

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Country Overview

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1.1. Socio-Economic Indicators

Population million / 2016 / WB-WDI 6.006

Density(Habitat/km2)/2016/

WB-WDI574

GDP MUSD/ 2016/ WB-WDI 49.599

GDP per capitaUSD/capita/ 2016 / WB-

WDI8257

% Urban population %/2016 / WB-WDI 87.91

Country Overview

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1.2. Energy Numbers

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Country Overview

National Energy Production (Mtoe) Mtoe/2015/IEA 0.184

Net Imports (Mtoe) Mtoe 2015 /IEA 7.735

Total Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) Mtoe/ 2015 /IEA 7.641

RE share in Primary Energy Consumption (%) %/2015 /IEA 2.4

Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) Mtoe/ 2015 /IEA 4884

Total installed electricity capacity (MW) MW/2018/ EDL 2771

Total generated electricity (GWh) GWh /2017/ SE4ALL 14618

RE share in total installed capacity (%) % / 2018/ EDL 10.6

Total generated RES-electricity (GWh) %/2017/ EDL-CAS 4.3

Electricity Consumption (GWh) GWh/ 2017 / SE4ALL 18168

RE share in Electricity Consumption (%) % / 2017 / ALMEE 3.071

CO2 emissions (MtCO2) MtCO2/ 2015 / IEA 22.7

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1.2. Energy Numbers

Total Primary Energy

Consumption

Year of data: 2015

%

Total Final Energy

Consumption

Year of data: 2015

%

Natural Gas 0 Industry 13.8Oil 95 Transport 39.2Coal 2.2 Residential 35.2Hydro 0.53 Commercial and Public Services 5Wind 0 Agriculture / forestry 2Geothermal 0 Fishery 0Solar 0.30 Others 4.8Biomass 1.7Ocean 0Net Electricity Imports 0.27

Country Overview

(Source: EU- SE4ALL- Sustainable Energy Country Fiche)

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1.3. Energy Efficiency (EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) Targets

National EE targets

Target EE 2020 Target EE 2030

2,342 GWh, or 12.6% of total electricity

consumptionNo official target

Global RE targets

Target RE 2020 Target RE 2030

12% of RE share in electricity and thermal

energyNo target

Country Overview

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Energy Efficiency Strategy / Policy

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Energy Efficiency Strategy/Policy

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2.1. Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector (2010)

• The Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector (2010) is the maingovernment policy that covers the whole electricity sector.

• The policy paper covers three distinct strategic areas –Infrastructure, Supply and Demand, and Legal framework.

• In terms of supply, the policy expected an installed capacity of morethan 4,000 MW generation capacity in 2014 and 5,000 MW after2015.

• The policy paper also sets a target of 12% of RE share in electricityand thermal energy by 2020 and 5% EE by 1015.

• In 2018 the policy paper needs to be reviewed because most of itstargets still not achieved.


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2.2. What is a NEEAP?

• The NEEAP is supposed to be a strategic document showing a coherent set of policies and measures needed to reach the target of energy saving.

• The requirement to submit a NEEAP every three years was retained in the EED.

• The NEAAP should also present an evaluation of energy saving for the past three years.


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A good NEEAP will have the following properties:

1. Present a coherent energy efficiency strategy.

2. Provide an overview of national energy trends. Identify major barriers to energy efficiency in the country and design measures to overcome identified barriers.

3. A clear national energy efficiency target for 20aa (in principle for the next three years)


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4. Incorporate a comprehensive set of measures addressing energy efficiency in all major energy-consuming economic sectors.

5. Present the forecast savings per measure.

6. Give the methodology for calculating energy savings figures.

7. Address all of the reporting requirements of the Energy Efficiency Directive.


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Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)

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Building Sector’s Prospective

. 14Energy Efficiency Strategy / Policy

3.1. The Lebanese NEEAP (2011-2015)

Adopted by the government on 10 November 2011 (Decision No. 26)

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3.2. Qualitative Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)

According to the Energy Services Directive (ESD), the evaluation of selected National Energy Efficiency Action Plans focuses on four different questions listed below. We evaluated qualitatively the Lebanese NEEAP according to these four questions:

1. Do the selected NEEAPs fulfill the formal criteria of the ESD?2. What is the level of information provided in the NEEAP? How to evaluate

the general performance?3. What is the relationship between energy saving potential, the final

energy consumption in the reference period, and the reduction target calculated in the NEEAP?

4. Do the NEEAPs under consideration contain innovative elements or measures that might be of relevance for other MENA region countries as well?


. 16Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)


Criteria Assessment

1NEEAP sets clear national energy efficiency target for 2015.

Just mentioned

2NEEAP provides an overview of national energy trends.

Just mentioned

3

NEEAP incorporates a set of measures addressing energy efficiency in all major energy-consuming economic sectors.

Transport sector (major energy consumption

sector) is missing

4NEEAP presents a coherent energy efficiency strategy

Not very clear

5

NEEAP identify major barriers to energy efficiency and explain how each will be, or is being, overcome.

Just mentioned

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Criteria Assessment

6Forecast savings per measure are presented

Clearly mentioned

7Methodology for calculating energy savings figures is explained

Not explained

8

NEAAP addresses the reporting requirements of the Energy Efficiency Directive

Not addressed

9NEAAP secures finance needs for implementation of EE measures

Not secured

10

NEAAP defines bodies responsible for implementation, estimated financial means and sources of financing

Public body with clear mandate and means is

not clearly defined


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3.2. Quantitative Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)

• Where the forecast installed capacity per measure is indicated it was easy to evaluate achievements.

• Where the forecast savings per measure are presented, achievements are evaluated according to results officially announced or calculated by experts.

• Energy Efficiency Indicators can give a view of energy efficiency trends in an economic sector or sub-sector relate to the measure. It does not quantify savings achieved as a result of measures, but it aggregates efficiency changes.


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Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Energy (CEP) kToe/year 6400 6606 7415 7347 7748

Percentage of Progression

Base 100

103.2% 115.8% 114.8% 121%

Average of progression of (CEP) Base 5.2%/year

Average of progression of GDP Base < 2%/year


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Initiative n⁰ Target Achievement in 2016

Initiative 1 Electricity saving160 MW installed capacity or 239 GWh/year

Import of Incandescent Lamps to Lebanon not banned

Initiative 2

Adoption of the Energy Conservation Law and Institutionalization of the Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation

Energy Conservation Law still not adopted and LCEC still an NGO not institutionalized

Initiative 3

50-100 MW Wind and Decentralize PV installedcapacity or 131-263 GWh/year electricity saving

Around 1 MW capacity installed - 3GWh/year electricity saving

Initiative 4 SWH26.35 GWh/year Electricity saving

Achieved at 53% according to LCEC

Initiative 5 18.6 GWh/year over 3Years from public street lighting

Achieved around 2 GWh/year



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Initiative 660-100MW - 120- 200 GWh/year from Wind

0 MW installed

Initiative 7100- 200 MW installed by2014. 263- 526 GWh/year from PV (solar energy)

1 MW installed1.6 GWh/year

Initiative 8

40 MW 140 GWh/year by 2015 (80 MW to be installed later with additional 280 GWh/year saved) from Hydro power

0 MW installed

Initiative 9 Waste to Energy 25 MWLess than 1 MW Waste to Energy Installed – 3 GWh/year

Initiative 10815 GWh/year From EnergyBuilding Code

Energy Building Code still not mandatory and the Thermal Standard For Building TSBL2010 very low implemented


3.2. Quantitative Evaluation of the NEEAP

(2011-2015)

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Initiative 11Financing Mechanisms and Incentives

NEEREA and Kafalat financing mechanisms. Energy saving from announcing beneficiary projects 7 GWh/year (end 2015)

Initiative 12 Awareness and Capacity Building Good achievement

Initiative 13Paving the Way for Energy Audit and ESCO Business

Medium achievement

Initiative 1438 GWh/year from standards and labels

5 Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for 5 equipments were adopted before the NEEAP. No enforcement or development of Labels were conducted

Total saving objectives and achievement 2087.6 GWh/year 18.6 GWh/year.


(Source: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7577564/)

3.2. Quantitative Evaluation of the NEEAP

(2011-2015)

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7577564/

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3.3. Importance of Energy Efficiency

Indicators in the Evaluation of EE Policy


Decomposition of the variation of Energy Intensity

Example of EE indicators

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Industrial Sector: Repartition of Energy Consumption

23%

2%

1%

8%

14%

40%

3%4%

5%

2000 Food, beverage and tobacco(ISIC 10-12)Textile, clothing, leather(ISIC 13-15)Wood, wood products (ISIC16)Paper, pulp and printingproducts (ISIC 17-18)Chemicals (ISIC 20-21 )

Non metallic minerals (ISIC23)Machinery and metalsproducts (ISIC 25-28)Other manufacturing (ISIC31-33)Construction (ISIC 45)

22%3%

1%

7%

10%46%

3%3%

5%

2010 Food, beverage and tobacco(ISIC 10-12)Textile, clothing, leather(ISIC 13-15)Wood, wood products (ISIC16)Paper, pulp and printingproducts (ISIC 17-18)Chemicals (ISIC 20-21 )

Non metallic minerals (ISIC23)Machinery and metalsproducts (ISIC 25-28)Other manufacturing (ISIC31-33)Construction (ISIC 45)


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3.3. Importance of Energy Efficiency Indicators in the Evaluation of EE Policy


Industrial Sector: Evolution of Energy Intensity by branch


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Energy Efficiency Indicators for transport sector


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Energy Efficiency Indicators for Residential Sector


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Energy Efficiency Indicators for Agricultural Sector


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Conclusion

Conclusion

• The Lebanese NEEAP claims to be compliant with the EU and ArabDirectives, but the Arab Directive for NEEAP didn’t provide aharmonized set of evaluation methods, and the Lebanese NEEAPdidn’t use the harmonized method of the European Energy EfficiencyDirective (EED).

• A quantitative approach to assessing or forecasting total savingsbased in the figures given in the NEEAP (2011-2015) is thereforedoubtful to yield a consistent result.

• The methods to monitor policies and programs are generally a combination of Bottom Up and Top Down approaches, as recommended by the ESD or an econometric modeling; these methods will require more precise end-use efficiency and consumption data.

The data base ALMEE/MEDENER based on ODYSSEE’ indicators can be used for monitoring NEEAP. Existing Data base is under upgrading for years 2013, 2014 and more with the support of the MEETMED Project.

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Conclusion

Conclusion

• Measures of NEEAP (2011-2015) are not reported: More guidance isneeded in order to allow establishing a level playing field in relationto how policy measures are to be reported.

• It is clear that without a real commitment of the Council ofMinisters securing the necessary financing means and designatedthe implementation bodies the new NEEAP (2016-2020) will havethe same destiny of the first NEEAP (2011-2015), “very lowachievements”.

• Finally, the NEEREA financial mechanism (Loan schemes, grants ordirect subsidies for the promotion of energy efficiency andrenewable energy sources are offered by the Central Bank ofLebanon) is an innovative measure that might be of relevance forother MENA region countries as well.

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Thanks for your Attention

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