Lean Aircraft Initiative Plenary Workshop · LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE...

Lean Aircraft InitiativePlenary Workshop

The Role of the ScheduleDevelopment Process

October 8, 1997

Capt Ross McNuttMIT

Capt McNutt PD100897- 2 ©1997 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE

Overview

l Structure Method and Objectivesl The Schedule Development Storyl Schedule Processl Small Group Discussions



Schedule Development Phases

Planning Phase Contracting Phase Development Phase

Project Approval

ContractSigned

FirstProduction

Item

Develop Initial Project Schedule

Select Contractor and

Develop Contract Schedule

Actual Development

Schedule


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Defense Product

Development Processes

Modernization Planning Process

Req DefinitionProcess

Users AcquisitionReview Process

Req Validation Process

Idea GenerationProcess

Acquisition PlanningProcess

Contracting Process

Development Oversight Process

MarketingProcess

Proposal Generation

Process

Product and Process

Development

Contractors

Program Office

PentagonPPBS

Process

Resource Planning

Planning

Contracting

Development

AcquisitionOversightProcess


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Schedule Process

Research Methodology

l Objectives– Identify the important factors involved in the development of

project schedules– Determine the effect of those factors on project outcomes

l Three Surveys - Different levels and roles in process– Contractor Program/Project Managers 104– Program Office Program/Project Managers 151– Pentagon Program Element Monitors 62

– 317 Project Surveys Completed

l Case Study – Post Acquisition Reform Development Effort– Demonstration of Current Schedule Process


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Initial Schedule Development

in the Planning Phase


Project Approval

ContractSigned

FirstProduction

Item

Develop Initial Project Schedule



Actual Development

Schedule



User’s Desired Date

SpecifiedFuture Date

“ASAP”

Program Element Monitor Survey

80% 20%



Operational Need Date


Future orProjectedDeficiency

CurrentOperationalDeficiency

70% 30%


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Ranking of Program

Objectives (1st to 4th)

Superior Performance Low Acquisition Cost

Low Operation Costs Shortened Schedule

PEM and SPO Surveys

FourthThirdSecondFirst

100

80

60

40

20

0FourthThirdSecondFirst

100

80

60

40

20

0

FourthThirdSecondFirst

100

80

60

40

20

0FourthThirdSecondFirst

100

80

60

40

20

0Axi

s: N

umbe

r of

Pro

gram

s R

espo

ndin

g



Mode Rank

SuperiorPerformance 1st

LowAcquisition Cost 2nd

Low Operational Cost 3rd

ShortenedSchedule 4th

Program Objective Significance Table

X

.03

<.001

<.0001

X

.05

<.01

X

.36 X

Perf Acq Cost Ops Cost Schd

* Using the Non-parametric Wilcoxon Rank-sign Test PEM and SPO Survey’s N=209


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Factors Influencing the

Projects’ Starting Date


User's DesiresLeadership Desires

Expect Dev FundingExpect Prod FundingService Planning

Technology DevelopmentDep on Another ProgramEngineering DevelopmentTesting RequirementsManuf Process DevelopSupport Requirements

No Some Defining Impact Impact Impact

1

2

3

Mean7654321


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Factors Influencing the

Length of the Initial Schedule

User's Desired ScheduleExpected Dev FundingExpected Prod Funding

Testing RequirementsEngineering Development

Leaderships Desires Technology DevelopmentDep on Another ProgramService Force Planning

Support RequirementsManuf Process Dev 2.9

3.0

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.6

4.0

4.0

4.4

4.6

7654321

1

2

3

4

Government Project Manager Survey

4.8



LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Relative Order of Information

Used for Initial Schedule

Expected Dev Funding

Expert Judgment

Contractor Proposed Schd

Historical Similar-Program

Bottom-Up Schedule Dev

Parametric Modeling

Comparable Commercial 3.0

3.5

4.2

4.5

4.7

5.2

5.4

7654321

1

2

3

4

5





Scheduling Tools Used

Milestone

Gantt

Critical Path Manag

PERT

Other Tools

System Center-based 1.5

1.7

3.2

4.2

4.7

5.2

7654321

1

2

3

4

5


NotUsed

OccasionallyUsed

ExtensivelyUsed


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Evident Across Many

Project Categories

l Same General Trend Occurs Across – All Program Sizes

- ACAT I, II, and III

– All Levels of Technological Advance- Revolutionary, New Generation,

and Incremental Improvements

– All System Types- Aircraft, Spacecraft, Electronic Systems, Munitions


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Planning Phase

Schedule Results


- Schedule is not seen as a high project priority

- Planned schedules determined by expected budget allocations - not development related requirements.

Project Approval

ContractSigned

FirstProduction

Item



Actual Development

Schedule


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Schedules in the

Contracting Phase


Project Approval

ContractSigned

FirstProduction

Item



Actual Development

Schedule - Schedule is not seen as a high project priority



LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Government Specified

Schedule in RFPs

“ Did the Government, through its RFP or other means, specify an expected project schedule to the contractors?”


Schedule Not

Specified

SpecifiedExpectedSchedule

80% 20%



1.8

3.7

3.8

3.9

5.6

7654321

1

2

3

Factors Influencing Contractor Proposed Schedules

No Moderate Sole Impact Impact Determinant

Contractor Survey

Customer’s Desired Schedule

Expected Development Funding

Expert Judgment/Bottom-up Analysis

Historical Similar Programs

Comparable Commercial Development



3.1

3.4

3.4

3.7

4.2

4.6

7654321

Contractor Ability to Influence Program

Program or Product Concept

System PerformanceRequirements

Program Schedule

Overall Budget or Funding Profile

Trade-offs between Perf, Cost, and Sched

Acquisition Strategy

No Some Very Large Impact Impact Impact

Contractor Survey

1

2

3

4


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Importance of Schedule For

Source Selection

“Was development time a significant evaluation criteria during your source selection?”

Mean = 3.6Government Program Manager Survey

Development Time In Source Selection7654321

30

20

10

0

Not Somewhat VeryImportant Important Important


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Contractor Incentive to Bid a

Different Schedule

5711

56

554

Incentive to Bid a Different Schedule7654321

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Nu

mb

er

of

Res

po

nd

ents

A Strong No A StrongDisincentive Incentive Incentive

Contractor Survey


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Contractor Bid Schedule

Vs Government Plan

Mean = 0.9

Percent Difference of Contractor Proposed Schedule

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Contractor Survey

100

806040200-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

Nu

mb

er o

f R

esp

on

den

ts


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Schedules of Proposals

Received By Program Offices

Contractor Proposal Schedules Compared to Initial Government Estimate

200

175

150125

100

75

50

250

>15% 5% to 15% Within 5% to 15% >15%Shorter Shorter 5% Longer Longer

Number of

Proposals Received

Program Managers Survey


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Schedule Results of the

Contracting Phase


Project Approval

ContractSigned

FirstProduction

Item

Actual Development



- Contracting phase incentives enforce expected

schedule and eliminate possible alternatives.


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Schedules in the

Execution Phase


Project Approval

ContractSigned

FirstProduction

Item

Actual Development



- Contracting phase

incentives enforce expected schedule and eliminate possible alternatives.



4.7

4.3

3.4

7654321

Changes Due toUnforeseen Events

Performance

Cost

Schedule

Least Likely Most LikelyTo Change To Change

1

2

3

Government Program Manager Survey



Mean = 3.4 Ease of Lengthening Schedule

7654321

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Ease of Changing Schedule

ShorteningMean = 5.6 Ease of Shortening Schedule

7654321

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

NotDifficult

VeryDifficult

NotDifficult

VeryDifficult



LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Available Schedule-Related

Incentive Fees

On Time CompletionEarly Completion

Mean = 1.5 Percent of Contract

2520151050

Early Completion

Mean = 3.0 Percent of Contract

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

2520151050

Num

ber

of

Res

pond

ents

Num

ber

of R

espo

nden

ts

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

100



LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Contractor View of

Incentives

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.7

7654321

A Strong No A StrongDisincentive Incentive Incentive

Contractor Survey

Reduce Total Program Cost

Reduce Unit Cost

Shorten Schedule

Exceed Performance Req.

Exceed Reliab/Maintenance



Program Slip


Schedule Slip (Months)

80

60

40

20

0604020-20

Num

ber

of

Pro

gram

s

-10 100 5030 70 80



Program Slip Per Year

40

30

20

10

0

Average Slip Per Year (Months per Year)


Num

ber

of

Pro

gram

s

30

24

18

12

60-6-12


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Program Slip

Major Acquisition Programs

Rand Database: All DoD Major Acquisition Programs since 1965

Program Schedule Change (Months)

140120100806040200-20

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0Num

ber

of

Pro

gram

s


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Execution Phase

Schedule Results


Project Approval

ContractSigned

FirstProduction

Item

- Development phase result - one way program slips.

- Schedule is not seen as a high project priority


- Contracting phase

incentives enforce expected schedule and eliminate possible alternatives.



Development Process


Req Definition Process

Users

AcquisitionReview Process




Contracting Process


MarketingProcess

Proposal Generation

Process

Product and Process

Development

Contractors

Program Office

PentagonPPBS

ProcessResource Planning

Planning

Contracting

Development




Schedule Planning Inputs



Users




Contracting Process



MarketingProcess

Proposal Generation

Process

Product and Process

Development

Contractors

Program Office

PentagonPPBS


ORD POM

Marketing

MAJCOM POM Input

Proposed ORD




Schedule Planning Outcomes



Users






Contracting Process

MarketingProcess

Proposal Generation

Process

Product and Process

Development

Contractors

Program Office

PentagonPPBS


ORDPOM

Marketing

Acq Plans

APB

MAJCOM POM Input

Proposed ORD




Contracting Process



Users





Contracting Process


MarketingProcess

Proposal Generation

Process

Product and Process

Development

Contractors

Program Office

PentagonPPBS


ORDPOM

Marketing

Acq Plans

APB

RFP

ProposalContract

MAJCOM POM Input

Proposed ORD




Development Process



Users





Contracting Process


MarketingProcess

Proposal Generation

Process

Product and Process

Development

Contractors

Program Office

PentagonPPBS


ORDPOM

Marketing

Acq Plans

APB

RFPProposal

ContractCSCS

Program Reviews

MAJCOM POM Input

Proposed ORD


CARSProgram Reviews



Preliminary Conclusions

l Schedule Process Outcomes– Schedule is not seen as a high project priority

– Planned schedules determined by expected budget allocations - not development related requirements.

– Contracting phase incentives enforce schedule and eliminate possible alternative schedules.

– Development phase result - one way program slips.


LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE Other Schedule

Related Research

l Areas Researched But Not Presented At This Time– Barriers to shortening schedules– Effects of schedule planning factors on

schedule performance to plan– Causes and impacts of program instability

on program schedules– Program example: Post-acquisition reform

case study



Small Group Discussions

l Small Group Discussion 15 Minutes– Planning Phase– Contracting Phase

– Development Phase– Overall Process

l Questions to be DiscussedDo these data and conclusions match your experiences?What are the implications of these data on schedules and cycle time reduction?(If time permits: What can be done in each phase to change the results?)

l Report by Group Leaders 2-3 Min/each– One table from each phase with comments from others– Each table completes a written table report



LEAN ENTERPRISE

“The most important way technology could enhance our military capability would be to cut

the acquisition cycle in half.”

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - Packard Commission 1986

“Even if one member makes a lot of progress in becoming lean, neither that member nor

the stream as a whole will reap the full benefits if another member falls short”

James Womack and Dan JonesHarvard Business Review March 1994

Lean Aircraft Initiative Plenary Workshop · LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE...

Documents

Transcript of Lean Aircraft Initiative Plenary Workshop · LEAN AIRCRAFT LEAN AIRCRAFT INITIATIVEINITIATIVE...