LCPS ت اساردلل ينانبللا زكرملA Snapshot of Parliamentary Election Results Sami...

LCPS تاساردلل ينانبللا زكرملاThe Lebanese Centerfor Policy Studies

A Snapshot of ParliamentaryElection ResultsSami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib

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April 2019

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A Snapshot ofParliamentary ElectionResultsSami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib1

Sami AtallahSami Atallah is the director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS).

He is currently leading several policy studies on youth social identity and political

engagement, electoral behavior, political and social sectarianism, and the role of

municipalities in dealing with the refugee crisis. He is the co-editor of Democracy,

Decentralization, and Service Delivery in the Arab World (with Mona Harb, Beirut,

LCPS 2015), co-editor of The Future of Oil in Lebanon: Energy, Politics, and Economic

Growth (with Bassam Fattouh, I.B. Tauris, 2018), and co-editor of The Lebanese

Parliament 2009-2018: From Illegal Extensions to Vacuum (with Nayla Geagea, 2018).

Sami ZoughaibSami Zoughaib is a public policy researcher at the Lebanese Center for Policy

Studies. He holds an M.A. in Public Policy from the University of Reading. His work

at LCPS is mainly focused on Lebanese politics, specifically international donor

conferences and the recent parliamentary elections. He has previously worked on

several research projects at the American University of Beirut, covering a range of

issues including Palestinian refugees and health economics.

1 The authors would like to thank JohnMcCabe, Ned Whalley, Hayat Sheik, JoseeBilezikjian, Georgia Dagher, and AymanTibi for their contributions to this paper.

LCPS Policy Paper2

Ashrafieh - Rmeil - Mdawwar - Saifi

Ras Beirut - Dar al Mreiseh - Mina al Hosn - Zoukak al Balat - Mazraa -

Moseitbeh - Marfa - Bashura

Zahle

West Bekaa - Rachaya

Baalbek - Hermel

Jbeil - Keserwan

Metn

Baabda

Aley - Chouf

Akkar

Tripoli - Minnieh-Dannieh

Bcharre - Zgharta - Batroun - Koura

Saida - Jezzine

Zahrani - Sour

Marjaayoun - Nabatieh - Hasbaya - Bint Jbeil

Beirut 1

Beirut 2

Bekaa 1

Bekaa 2

Bekaa 3

Mount Lebanon 1

Mount Lebanon 2

Mount Lebanon 3

Mount Lebanon 4

North 1

North 2

North 3

South 1

South 2

South 3

List of voting districts and corresponding qadas

IntroductionOn 6 May 2018, nearly half of the Lebanese voting population cast theirballots to elect a new parliament for the first time in nearly a decade.The highly anticipated election was governed by a new proportionalrepresentation law intended to steer the country away from its traditional majoritarian system. Of the 597 candidates, 128 winnersfrom Lebanon’s 15 electoral districts claimed parliamentary seats. Contrary to expectations, the implementation of a proportional

electoral system did not result in high voter turnout. Of 3.7 millioneligible voters, including about 83,000 expatriates, 49.7% cast theirballots—a modest turnout and a nearly 4% decrease from the electionof 2009 (53.4%).2 Most districts saw turnout hover around the 50%mark, with the exception of Mount Lebanon 1 and Bekaa 3 with 66%and 60% respectively, while Beirut 1 had the lowest turnout with33%.3

This report focuses on the election results and their implications on the distribution of power across the parliament. We show that political blocs have changed significantly in size and why this shiftshould be understood in context, namely, that political parties are reliant on non-party members to form blocs and the parliament remains dominated by six major parties. We demonstrate that mostmajor political parties sought to compete nationally, as each wonseats in seven districts on average. Despite expectations that thenewly adopted proportional representation system would bring newfaces into the parliament, newly emerged groups performed ratherpoorly in the election. Women’s representation in the parliament improved only marginally, and those who did perform well are politically connected. Additionally, we highlight political changes inspecific voting districts that resulted from the most recent nationalelection. The report comprises three sections: The first section focuses on

the distribution of power in the new parliament by outlining the characteristics of newly formed blocs and presenting information onnew MPs. The second section examines the performance of each of theseven major political parties across all electoral districts. The thirdsection analyzes results at the district level.

3A Snapshot of Parliamentary Election Results

2 National Democratic Institute. 2009. ‘FinalReport on The Lebanese ParliamentaryElection.’ Available at:https://www.ndi.org/sites/default/files/Lebanese_Elections_Report_2009.pdf

3 Per the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities. Further information available at: goo.gl/J1bVqy

LCPS Policy Paper

Distribution of SeatsThis section maps out changes in the distribution of power between thelargest political forces in the parliament. It first describes how parlia-mentary blocs changed in terms of size and composition. The section thendiscusses the distribution of seats at the confessional and partisan level.

Change in the Balance of Power The 2018 parliamentary election altered the political balance of powerin the parliament. The largest parliamentary bloc, the Strong Lebanonbloc—led by the Free Patriotic Movement—captured 29 seats, followedby the Future Movement-led bloc, with 20 seats (figure 1). While theStrong Lebanon bloc increased its number of seats by two, the FutureMovement-led bloc lost 14 seats. The Lebanese Forces-led bloc experi-enced the largest change in number of seats, as it nearly doubled insize from eight in 2009 to 15 in 2018. While the Amal Movement-ledbloc increased its share to 17 seats, the Hezbollah-led bloc managed tohold on to 13 seats, the same number they had in the last parliament.The Progressive Socialist Party-led bloc and Kataeb both lost two seats.

Although major political parties usually integrate smaller partiesinto their blocs for more influence (compared to existing blocs in theparliament at the time of the election), only the Strong Lebanon blocand Amal Movement-led bloc blocs included at least one additionalparty. The Strong Lebanon bloc comprises five different parties and anumber of non-party members, while the Amal Movement-led bloc hasone Ba’ath party member. Out of the six major blocs, Hezbollah's hasthe least number of non-party members in its bloc while StrongLebanon has the highest.

4

I

a

Figure 1 Change in size of main political blocs between 2009 and 2018

y

mbers

cesNon-Party Members

Non-Party Members

Non-Party Members

y

y

h

h

tNon-Party Members

artst Pliave SocissiregroP

artst Pliave SocissiregroP

ovemen Mnt FromicaIsl

llazboHe

llazboHe

Kataeb

Kataeb

30

Non-Party Members

Non-Party Members

Non-Party Members

Non-Party Members

Amal Movement

Non-Party Mem

Lebanese Forces

ForcesAmal MovementFuture Movement

b f i i Lebanese Leftist Democratic Party

Non-Party Members

y

Free Patriotic Movement

Marada

Tashnag

TadamonNon-Party Members

Lebanese Democratic Party

p

Baath

Independence Movement


FreePatriotic Movement

Tashnag

p Lebanese Populist Movement

LebaneseLebaneseF

Hashnag

SeatsNet Change in S t 2-07+4+14-2+

20

10

2009

10

20

30

2018

2-SN S


Distribution of Seats: Six Parties Dominate the New ParliamentAt the confessional level, most groups are represented by two or moreparties. The two major Muslim sects are now substantially different interms of the number of parties representing them. While Shia seatsare represented by only two parties (Amal Movement and Hezbollah)and their non-party allies, Sunni seats are occupied by nine. The twolargest Christian sects fall in between, with Maronites represented byseven parties and Greek Orthodox by five.

Figure 2 Number of seats per party and bloc

Azem MovementTashnakIndpependence MovementLebanese Populist MovementFree Patriotic Movement

Future MovementSyrian Socialist Nationalist PartyAmal MovementLebanese ForcesHezbollah

Progressive Socialist PartyLebanese Democratic PartyKataebMarada MovementBa'ath

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0StrongLebanonBloc

FutureMovement

AmalMovement

LebaneseForces

Hezbollah Progressive Socialist Party

b

Table 1 Number of seats per party, by confession

Confession

Shia

Sunni

Number of Seats

27

27

Party Seats

23

12

11

20

12

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Non-partySeats

4

7

Name of Party

Hezbollah

Amal Movement

Future Movement

Ittihad Party

Popular Nasserist Organization

Ba'ath

Azem Movement

Arab Liberation Party

Hiwar Party

Al-Mashari' Association

Progressive Socialist Party

LCPS Policy Paper6

Confession

Druze

Alawite

Muslims

Maronite

Greek

Orthodox

Catholic

Armenian

Orthodox

Armenian

Catholic

Minorities

Evangelical

Christians

Total

Number of Seats

8

2

64

34

14

8

5

1

1

1

64

128

Party Seats

6

5

1

2

1

1

51

25

10

8

3

2

1

1

10

3

3

2

1

1

4

3

1

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

46

97

Non-partySeats

2

0

13

9

4

4

1

0

0

0

18

31

Name of Party



Lebanese People's Movement

Azem Movement


Lebanese Forces

Kataeb

Marada Movement

Future Movement

Independence Movement

Lebanese Forces


Syrian Social Nationalist Party

Azem Movement

Marada Movement


Lebanese Forces

Tashnag

Sabaa Party

Lebanese Forces




Although 22 parties managed to secure seats in the parliament, 15had three or fewer MPs. Six major parties control 73 seats, which is equivalent to 56% of total seats, while the remaining 15 parties controlalmost 19%—the remaining 25% are occupied by non-party memberlawmakers. The largest group, the Free Patriotic Movement, won 18 seats,followed by the Lebanese Forces with 13, and the Future Movementand Hezbollah with 12 each. About one-quarter of all MPs are officiallynon-party members (31) though 24 of them are part of political blocs.

Many Independent Lists, Disappointing Results Independent lists viewed the new proportional representation systemas an unprecedented opportunity to win seats and shake up the political status-quo. Twenty-one independent lists (out of a total of77 lists) were registered to run.4 Eleven civil society groups formedthe largest national electoral coalition—Kollouna Watani—fielding 66candidates in nine districts. As figure 2 shows, Beirut 2 and South 3had the largest number of independent lists, with three running ineach, while none competed in South 1 and South 2.

Smaller Parties (with three or less seats)

Azem Movement 3

Kataeb 3

Marada Movement 3

Tashnag 3

Syrian Social Nationalist Party 2

Ittihad Party 1

Popular Nasserist Organization 1

Ba'ath 1

Arab Liberation Party 1

Dialogue Party 1

Al-Mashari' Association 1

Lebanese People's Movement 1

Future Movement 1

Independence Movement 1

Sabaa Party 1

Total 26

Major Parties (with seven or more seats)

Free Patriotic Movement 18

Hezbollah 12

Future Movement 13

Lebanese Forces 13

Amal Movement 11

Progressive Socialist Party 6

Total 73

Table 2 Number of seats per party

4 We classify a list as independent if noneof its candidates are affiliated with traditional political parties, groups, orfamilies.

c

LCPS Policy Paper

The results were disappointing for these groups, with only one candidate winning a seat. Beirut 1 had the highest percentage ofvotes cast for independent lists—about 18%—while the independentlist in Bekaa 1 won just under 2% of the vote (figure 4). The 21 independent lists managed to garner just 4% of the national vote.

8

Figure 3 Number of independent lists running, by district

4

3

2

1

0

Beirut 2 South 3 Beirut 1 MountLebanon 4

North 2 North 1 MountLebanon 3

MountLebanon 2

North 3 MountLebanon 1

Bekaa 2 Bekaa 3 Bekaa 1 South 1 South 2

Non-party Lists Civil Society Coalition Lists

Figure 4 Percentage of votes cast for independent lists, by district

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%Beirut 1 South 2 Mount

Lebanon 4Mount

Lebanon 3Mount

Lebanon 2South 3 North 3 Mount

Lebanon 1Bekaa 2 Bekaa 3 North 2 North 1 Bekaa 1 South 1 South 2

Non-party Lists Civil Society Coalition Lists

Record Number of Female Candidates but Very Little ProgressThe 2018 election saw a record 86 women vie for parliament seats, withevery major party except Hezbollah fielding female candidates. Thiswas a significant increase compared to the 2009 election, when only

d

12 ran. Only six women managed to win seats—a slight improvementover the four seats women won in the 2009 parliamentary election.Women candidates garnered 5% of the vote nationwide. However, thatpercentage varied widely across districts (figure 5), with voters givingas much as 20% of their votes to female candidates in South 1, and aslittle as 0.3% in North 1.

Figure 5 shows the average percentage of votes won by a femalecandidate compared to a male candidate across the country’s electoraldistricts. In South 1 and Bekaa 1, women candidates garnered a higherpercentage of votes on average than their male peers. Percentages werealso very close in South 2. This is largely explained by the fact thatwomen candidates who performed well are politically connectedand/or ran on lists of established political parties.


Figure 5 Percentage of votes cast for female candidates, by district

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%South 1 South 2 Bekaa 1 Beirut 1 Beirut 2 North 3 Mount

Lebanon 2Mount

Lebanon 4Mount

Lebanon 3North 2 Mount

Lebanon 1Bekaa 2 South 3 Bekaa 3 North 1

Figure 6 Average number of votes garnered by a female and a male candidate, per district

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

South 1 South 2 Bekaa 1 Bekaa 2 Beirut 1 North 3 MountLebanon 3

MountLebanon 4

MountLebanon 3

Beirut 2 MountLebanon 1

South 3 North 2 Bekaa 3 North 1

Male Female

LCPS Policy Paper

The only independent female candidate to win a seat is Paula Yacoubian, a member of the party Sabaa (which is a member of theKoullouna Watani coalition). Three of the six female lawmakers in theparliament are members of the Future Movement, one belongs to theLebanese Forces, and one to the Amal Movement (table 3).

Geographical Distribution and MapsOne key feature of parties is geographical representation. The Free Patriotic Movement—which heads the largest parliamentary bloc—isthe most widely represented party in terms of geography, having wonseats in 11 of 15 electoral districts (figure 7). The Lebanese Forces andFuture Movement follow closely, having won nine and eight districtsrespectively. Kataeb, the Marada Movement, and the Azem Movementonly managed to win seats in their regional strongholds. Figure 8maps the seats by parties and blocs over 15 electoral districts.

10

Table 3 Affiliation and number of votes for women MPs

Name

Inaya Ezzedine

Bahia Hariri

Sethrida Geagea

Roula Tabsh Jaroudi

Paula Yacoubian

Dima Al-Jamali

Seat

Shia

Sunni

Maronite

Sunni

Armenian Orthodox

Sunni

District

South 2

South 1

North 3

Beirut 2

Beirut 1

North 2

Affiliation

Amal Movement

Future Movement

Lebanese Forces

Future Movement

Sabaa Party

Future Movement

Number of Votes

18,815

13,739

6,677

6,637

2,500

2,066

II

Marada Movement

Azem Movement

Kataeb

Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party


Hezbollah

Amal Movement

Future Movement

Lebanese Forces


0 2 4 6 8 10

Figure 7 Party representation by number of districts


Figure 8 Distribution of seats by parties and blocs

LCPS Policy Paper

The Strong Lebanon Bloc, led by the Free Patriotic Movement, grewto become the most geographically representative bloc by winning seatsin 11 districts (figure 9). The bloc extended its reach north, takingseats in Akkar and the Bekaa, in addition to securing seats in Zahleand West Bekaa. The bloc also decreased its reliance on non-partymembers with nine, down from 16 in 2009.

Figure 9 Distribution of Strong Lebanon bloc seats by district, 2009 and 2018

The Future Movement-led bloc, the country’s second largest, lostsome of its geographic representation, having won seats in only eightdistricts (figure 10). Although the bloc was successful in expandingeast and gaining a seat in Baalbek, it lost some of its seats in theNorth and Beirut districts. It retained the same number of non-partymembers, with seven.

12

Figure 10 Distribution of Future Movement-led bloc, seats by district, 2009 and 2018


The Amal Movement-led bloc expanded in 2018 by winning seats outside of its traditional strongholds of Baalbek-Hermel and the South(figure 11). The bloc managed to secure seats in West Bekaa-Rachaya,Jezzine, and Baabda. Six non-party members are now part of the bloc,up from five in 2009.

Figure 11 Distribution of Amal Movement-led bloc seats by district, 2009 and 2018

LCPS Policy Paper14

The Lebanese Forces-led bloc managed to extend its geographicreach, having won seats in nine districts, second only to the StrongLebanon bloc (figure 12). The bloc expanded east into Baalbek-Hermeland secured seats in multiple Mount Lebanon districts. It started to relyon non-party members in the 2018 election and now has two, havinghad none in 2009.

Figure 12 Distribution of Lebanese Forces-led bloc seats by district, 2009 and 2018

The Hezbollah-led bloc managed to broaden its range of support bywinning seats in six districts (figure 13). It also expanded into Beirut,winning a seat in the capital’s second district. The bloc now has twonon-party members, up from one in 2009.


Figure 13 Distribution of Hezbollah-led bloc seats by district, 2009 and 2018

The Progressive Socialist Party-led bloc remains confined to the party’sregional strongholds, mainly districts with a high Druze population(figure 14). The bloc maintained its presence in West Bekaa-Rachaya,Beirut 2, Baabda, and Aley-Chouf with a similar number of seats. Thebloc decreased its reliance on non-party members as it now has justthree, whereas it had six in 2009.

Figure 14 Distribution of Progressive Socialist Party-led bloc seats by district, 2009 and 2018

LCPS Policy Paper16

The Kataeb lost some of its geographic reach, retaining seats in justtwo districts (figure 15). The party lost its seats in Zahle and Tripoliand settled for wins in its strongholds, Beirut 1 and Metn. All of thebloc’s representatives are members of the Kataeb.

Figure 15 Distribution of Kataeb bloc seats seats by district, 2009 and 2018

District Level Analysis of the ResultsHaving been almost a decade since Lebanon last held a parliamentaryelection, significant changes in the political makeup of each districtwere expected following the 2018 vote. To examine this, the followingsection focuses on each of the 15 electoral districts and offers anoverview of how the balance of power in each shifted since 2009.

Bekaa 1 (Zahle): Hezbollah Wins a Seat as the Populist Bloc Withers In 2009, under the majoritarian system, the March 14 coalition clinchedall seven seats in Zahle with about 53% of the vote, narrowly beatingout a list formed by the Populist Bloc. However, the district’s politicalbalance has since undergone a major shift. Three lists, one backed byHezbollah, won seats in 2018. Bekaa 1 seats were shared by ‘Zahle forEveryone’ with three, and the other four split evenly between ‘ZahleOur Cause’ and ‘Zahle the Choice and Decision’ (figure 16). The PopulistBloc grew weaker, managing only 12% of the vote—a sharp decreasefrom the 45% it received in 2009.

III

a


b

Figure 16 Share of votes by electoral lists in Bekaa 1

Table 4 lists the names of, political affiliations of, and votes wonby newly elected MPs.

Table 4 Affiliation and number of votes for MPs in Bekaa 1

Bekaa 2 (West Bekaa-Rachaya): Hezbollah-Amal Movement Gain as Future Movement-Progressive Socialist Party Retain Half of Their SeatsThe March 14 groups won all six seats in West Bekaa-Rachaya in 2009,with approximately 53% of the vote. In 2018, the list backed byHezbollah and the Amal Movement took half of the district’s seatswith 50% of the vote—2% more than the Future Movement-ProgressiveSocialist Party list. The independent list ‘Civil Society’ failed to win aseat, having garnered only 2% of the vote (figure 17).

Name

Georges Okais

Kaysar Maalouf

Salim Aoun

Assem Araji

Michel Daher

Eddy Demerjian

Anwar Jomaa

Seat

Catholic

Greek Orthodox

Maronite

Sunni

Catholic

Armenian Orthodox

Shia

List

Zahle Our Cause

Zahle Our Cause

Zahle for Everyone

Zahle for Everyone

Zahle for Everyone

Zahle the Choice

and the Decision

Zahle the Choice

and the Decision

Affiliation

Lebanese Forces

Non-Party Member

Free Patriotic

Movement

Future Movement

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member

Hezbollah

Number of Votes

11,363

3,554

5,567

7,224

9,742

77

15,601

Zahle Our Cause

20%

Kulluna Watani

2%

Zahle For Everyone

40%

Zahle the Choice andDecision

26%

Populist Bloc

12%

LCPS Policy Paper18

c


Table 5 lists the names of, political affiliations of, and votes won bynewly elected MPs.


Bekaa 3 (Baalbek-Hermel): The Lebanese Forces and Future MovementSteal Two Seats in Hezbollah-Amal Movement's StrongholdIn 2009, Hezbollah and its allies secured all ten seats in Baalbek-Hermel—one of the party’s political strongholds—with 86% of the vote. In2018, the ‘Hope and Loyalty’ list led by Hezbollah, the Amal Movement,and their allies clinched eight seats with 76% of the vote, while ‘Dignity and Development’—a list spearheaded by the Future Movement,Lebanese Forces and their allies—took 19% of the vote, securing twoseats. Three other lists, including the independent ‘Development andChange,’ Kataeb-backed ‘National Cedars’ as well as the Free PatrioticMovement-backed ‘The Independent’, were not in serious contention(figure 18). Hezbollah and its allies secured all the Shia seats, the

Name

Abdul Rahim Mourad

Wael Abou Faour

Mohammad Nasrallah

Mohammad Karaawi

Elie Ferzli

Henry Chedid

Seat

Sunni

Druze

Shia

Sunni

Greek

Orthodox

Maronite

List

The Better Tomorrow

The Future for West

Bekaa and Rachaya

The Better Tomorrow

The Future for West

Bekaa and Rachaya

The Better Tomorrow

The Future for West

Bekaa and Rachaya

Affiliation

Ittihad Party

Progressive

Socialist Party

Amal Movement

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member

Number of Votes

15,111

10,677

8,897

8,768

4,899

1,584

The Better Tomorrow

50%

Civil Society

2%

The Future For West Beqaa and Rachaya

48%


Catholic seat, and one of the two Sunni seats. The remaining Maroniteand Sunni seats were filled by Antoine Habchi (Lebanese Forces) andBakr El-Hujayri (Future Movement) respectively.

d




South 1 (Saida - Jezzine): Future Movement Loses Seats as AmalMovement-Backed List Asserts ItselfIn 2009, the Future Movement and Free Patriotic Movement were thesole winners in Saida and Jezzine (previously split into two separateelectoral districts), having won 68% and 53% of the vote respectively.However, the 2018 election painted a different picture, with the AmalMovement-Popular Nasserist Organization list winning two seats and

Name

Jamil el Sayyed

Ihab Hamade

Ghazi Zaiter

Ali Mokdad

Ibrahim Mousawi

Hussein El-Haj Hassan

Antoine Habchi

Walid Sukarieh

Bakr Houjayri

Albert Mansour

Seat

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Maronite

Sunni

Sunni

Greek

Catholic

List

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Dignity and Development

Hope and Loyalty


Hope and Loyalty

Affiliation

Non-Party Member

Hezbollah

Amal Movement

Hezbollah

Hezbollah

Hezbollah

Lebanese Forces

Non-Party Member

Future Movement

Non-Party Member

Number of Votes

33,223

18,404

17,767

17,321

16,942

15,662

14,858

6,916

5,994

5,881


19%

The Independent

3%

Hope and Loyalty

76%

Development and Change

2%

LCPS Policy Paper20

e

Figure 19 Share of votes by electoral lists in South 1

the Future Movement securing one. The Free Patriotic Movement maintained a presence by winning the remaining two seats. ‘The Abilityto Change’ list—backed by the LF and Kataeb—failed to win anyseats, with only 10% of the vote (figure 19).


Table 7 Affiliation and number of votes for MPs in South 1

South 2 (Sour-Zahrani): Free Patriotic Movement Far from Being inContention as Hezbollah-Amal Movement Dominate AgainHezbollah, the Amal Movement, and their allies dominated the 2009elections in Sour and Zahrani (previously split into two districts), takingall the seats with about 90% of the vote. Little has changed as the sameparties won all seven seats in 2018, with a commanding 92% of thevote. The ‘Together Toward Change’ list—backed by the Free PatrioticMovement—failed to provide any real competition (figure 20).

Name

Bahia Hariri

Ibrahim Azar

Oussama Saad

Ziad Aswad

Salim Khoury

Seat

Sunni

Maronite

Sunni

Maronite

Catholic

List

Integration and Dignity

For Everyone

For Everyone

Saida and Jezzine

Together

Saida and Jezzine

Together

Affiliation

Future Movement

Non-Party Member

Popular Nasserist

Organization

Free Patriotic

Movement

Free Patriotic

Movement

Number of Votes

13,739

11,663

9,880

7,270

708

Saida and JezzineTogether

31%

The Ability to Change

10%

For Everyone

34%

Integration and Dignity

25%


f




South 3 (Marjayoun - Nabatiyeh - Hasbaya - Bent Jbeil): Despite BroadCompetition, Hezbollah-Amal Movement Dominate AgainIn 2009, the March 8 coalition dominated the election in this district(then split into three separate districts Marjayoun-Hasbaya, Nabatiyeh,and Bent Jbeil) by securing nearly 90% of the vote. Predictably,Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and their allies again won all the seatsin South 3, with 86% of the vote (figure 21).

Name

Nabih Berri

Nawwaf Moussawi

Hussein Jachi

Inaya Ezzedine

Ali Khreis

Michel Moussa

Adel Osseiran

Seat

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Catholic

Shia

List

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Affiliation

Amal Movement

Hezbollah

Hezbollah

Amal Movement

Amal Movement

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member

Number of Votes

42,137

24,379

23,864

18,815

15,672

4,162

2,203

Hope and Loyalty

92%

Together Toward Change

8%

LCPS Policy Paper22

g




North 1 (Akkar): Free Patriotic Movement Enters Akkar as FutureMovement Loses SeatsThe March 14 coalition clinched all seven seats in Akkar in 2009, withabout 63% of the vote. In 2018, the Free Patriotic Movement-backed‘Strong Akkar’ list took two seats, while the Future Movement-backed‘Future for Akkar’ secured five (figure 22).

Name

Mohammad Raad

Hassan Fadlallah

Ali Fayad

Hani Kobeissi

Ali Hassan Khalil

Ali Ahmad Bazzi

Yassine Jaber

Ayoub Hmayed

Anwar Khalil

Kassem El-Hachem

Assaad Hardan

Seat

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Shia

Druze

Sunni

Greek

Orthodox

List

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Hope and Loyalty

Affiliation

Hezbollah

Hezbollah

Hezbollah

Amal Movement

Amal Movement

Amal Movement

Non-Party Member

Amal Movement

Non-Party Member

Ba'ath

Syrian Socialist

Nationalist Party

Number of Votes

43,797

39,722

27,460

20,504

16,765

9,290

7,920

7,875

6,347

6,012

3,321

Hope and Loyalty

86%

Enough Talk

3%

We Are All Patriotic

1%One Voice For Change

2%The South Deserves

8%


h

Figure 22 Share of votes by electoral lists in North 1


Table 10 Affiliation and number of votes for MPs in North 1

North 2 (Tripoli - Minnieh - Dannieh): Future Movement Sees Its Dom-inance in Lebanon’s Northern City ChallengedIn 2009, all seven seats in Tripoli were won by the March 14 coalition,with the ‘Al Tadamon al Traboulsi’ list—which included Najib Mikati—and Omar Karami’s list winning 62% of the vote. In Minnieh-Dannieh,the ‘Future for the North’ list—also part of the March 14 coalition—secured all three seats. In 2018, the ‘Future for the North’ list—backed by the Future Movement—secured five seats with 36% of thevote, while the Azem-backed ‘Al Azem’ list won four with 29%, and ‘National Dignity’ with 20% won two (figure 23).

Name

Walid El-Baarini

Mohammad Suleiman

Hadi Hobeich

Mohamad El-Merehbi

Wehbi Qatisha

Assaad Dargham

Mostafa El-Hussein

Seat

Sunni

Sunni

Maronite

Sunni

Greek

Orthodox

Greek

Orthodox

Alawite

List

Future for Akkar

Future for Akkar

Future for Akkar

Future for Akkar

Future for Akkar

Strong Akkar

Strong Akkar

Affiliation

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member

Future Movement

Future Movement

Lebanese Forces

Free Patriotic

Movement

Lebanese People's

Movement

Number of Votes

20,426

14,911

14,911

14,145

7,911

7,435

1,353

The Future for Akkar

58%

The Decision for Akkar

11%

The Strong Akkar

26%

Akkar's Decision

1%

Sovereign Lebanon

4%

Akkar's Women

0%

LCPS Policy Paper24

i


North 3 (Batroun – Bcharre – Zgharta – Koura): Marada Movement,Lebanese Forces, and Free Patriotic Movement Share the District’s 10 SeatsIn the 2009 election, the March 14 coalition took all seven seats in threeof North 3’s regions—Batroun, Koura, and Bcharre. In Zgharta, the threeremaining seats of North 3 were won by the March 8 coalition. In 2018,the Marada-Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party list ‘Together for the Northand Lebanon’ secured 35% of the vote, winning four seats. Three went to‘Pulse of the Strong Republic,’ backed by the Lebanese Forces, with 33%,and the remaining three were won by the Free Patriotic Movement's‘Strong North’ list, with 29% (figure 24).

Name

Najib Mikati

Jihad al Samad

Othman Alameldine

Mohammad Kabbara

Samir el Jisr

Sami Fatfat

Faisal Karami

Ali Darwich

Dima Jamali

Jean Obeid

Nicolas Chammas

Seat

Sunni

Sunni

Sunni

Sunni

Sunni

Sunni

Sunni

Alawite

Sunni

Maronite

Greek

Orthodox

List

Azem Movement

National Dignity

Future for the North




National Dignity

Azem Movement


Azem Movement

Azem Movement

Affiliation

Azem Movement

Non-Party Member

Future Movement

Non-Party Member

Future Movement

Future Movement

Arab Liberation

Party

Azem Movement

Future Movement

Non-Party Member

Azem Movement



Number of Votes

21,300

11,897

10,221

9,600

9,527

7,943

7,126

2,246

2,066

1,136

1,057

Al Azem

29%

Sovereign Lebanon

7%

Independent Decision

3%


36%

People's Decision

3%

Kulluna Watani

2%

National Dignity

20%



Name

Gebran Bassil

Georges Atallah

Michel Moawad

Estephan Douaihy

Salim Saade

Tony Frangieh

Fayez Ghosn

Georges Isaac

Sethrida Geagea

Fadi Saad

Seat

Maronite

Greek

Orthodox

Maronite

Maronite

Greek

Orthodox

Maronite

Greek

Orthodox

Maronite

Maronite

Maronite

List

Strong North

Strong North

Strong North

Together for the

North and Lebanon

Together for the

North and Lebanon

Together for the

North and Lebanon

Together for the

North and Lebanon

Pulse of the Strong

Republic

Pulse of the Strong

Republic

Pulse of the Strong

Republic

Affiliation

Free Patriotic

Movement

Free Patriotic

Movement

Independence

Movement

Marada

Movement

Syrian Social

Nationalist Party

Marada

Movement

Marada

Movement

Lebanese Forces

Lebanese Forces

Lebanese Forces



Number of Votes

12,269

3,383

8,571

5,435

5,263

11,407

4,224

5,990

6,677

9,842

Strong North

29%

Kulluna Watani

3%

The Pulse of the Strong Republic

33%

Together for the North and Lebanon

35%

LCPS Policy Paper26

j Mount Lebanon 1 (Jbeil - Keserwen): Kataeb and the Lebanese ForcesAssert Their Presence in Jbeil-Keserwen as the Free Patriotic MovementLoses SeatsIn 2009, all eight seats in the Mount Lebanon 1 district were won bythe Free Patriotic Movement-affiliated ‘Change and Reform’ wing ofthe March 8 coalition. The list took 57.21% of the vote in Jbeil and52.81% of the vote in Keserwen. The 2018 election yielded a very different result. The Free Patriotic Movement list ‘Strong Lebanon’managed to win four seats, but the remaining four went to the party’sopponents: The Lebanese Forces-backed ‘The Certain Change’ and theKataeb-affiliated ‘We Decide’—each won two seats (figure 25).

Figure 25 Share of votes by electoral lists in Mount Lebanon 1

Name

Ziad Hawat

Chawki Daccache

Farid El-Khazen

Mostafa El-Husseini

Roger Azar

Simon Abi-Ramia

Chamel Roukoz

Nehmat Efrem

Seat

Maronite

Maronite

Maronite

Shia

Maronite

Maronite

Maronite

Maronite

List

The Certain Change

The Certain Change

We Decide

We Decide

Strong Lebanon

Strong Lebanon

Strong Lebanon

Strong Lebanon

Affiliation

Non-Party Member

Lebanese Forces

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member

Free Patriotic

Movement

Free Patriotic

Movement

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member


Table 13 Affiliation and number of votes for MPs in Mount Lebanon 1

Number of Votes

14,424

10,032

9,081

78

6,793

9,729

7,300

10,717

Change is Inevitable

24%

The Decision is Ours

16%

Kulluna Watani

2%

Strong Lebanon

47%

National Solidarity

11%


k Mount Lebanon 2 (Metn): No Clear Winner as District Remains DividedIn both 2009 and 2018, no single bloc dominated the election in theMetn region. In 2009, ‘The Change and Reform,’ wing of the March 8coalition—backed by the Free Patriotic Movement—won five seats,with 51.04% of the vote. The other two were won by the March 14coalition’s ‘Metn’s Rescue.’ In 2018, the Free Patriotic Movement-backedlist ‘Strong Metn’ retained four seats, while opposing parties madegains. The Kataeb-backed ‘Metn’s Pulse’ won two seats, and ‘Metn theHeart of Lebanon’—affiliated with the Lebanese Forces—won one. The remaining seat went to independent candidate Michel el-Murr(figure 26).


Name

Ibrahim Kanaan

Edgar Maalouf

Hagop

Pakradounian

Elias Bou Saab

Eddy Abillama

Michel Murr

Elias Hankach

Sami Gemayel

Seat

Maronite

Catholic

Greek

Orthodox

Greek

Orthodox

Maronite

Greek

Orthodox

Maronite

Maronite

List

Strong Metn

Strong Metn

Strong Metn

Strong Metn

Metn the Heart of

Lebanon

Loyalty to Metn

Metn's Pulse

Metn's Pulse

Affiliation



Tashnag


Lebanese Forces

Non-Party Member

Kataeb

Kataeb


Table 14 Affiliation and number of votes for MPs in Mount Lebanon 2

Number of Votes

7,179

5,961

7,182

7,299

8,922

11,945

2,583

13,968

Strong Metn

43%

Metn the Heart of Lebanon

15%

The Pulse of Metn

21%

Kulluna Watani

6%

Loyalty for Metn Citizens

15%

LCPS Policy Paper28

l Mount Lebanon 3 (Baabda): The Lebanese Forces and Progressive Socialist Party Clinch Two Seats as the Free Patriotic Movement,Hezbollah, and Amal Movement Settle for FourThe 2009 election in Baabda was dominated by the March 8 coalition,with the Free Patriotic Movement-backed ‘Change and Reform’ list takingall six seats with 53.6% of the vote. In 2018, ‘National Accord’—a jointlist put forward by the Free Patriotic Movement, Hezbollah, and the AmalMovement—took four seats, but two were won by the Lebanese Forces-and Progressive Socialist Party-backed ‘Unity and Development forBaabda’ (figure 27).


Name

Alain Aoun

Hikmat Dib

Ali Ammar

Fadi Alame

Pierre Bouassi

Hadi Abou

Hassan

Seat

Maronite

Maronite

Shia

Shia

Maronite

Druze

List

National Accord

National Accord

National Accord

National Accord

Baabda's Unity and

Development

Baabda's Unity and

Development

Affiliation



Hezbollah

Amal Movement

Lebanese Forces

Progressive Socialist

Party


Table 15 Affiliation and number of votes for MPs in Mount Lebanon 3Number of Votes

10,200

4,428

13,692

6,348

13,498

11,844

m Mount Lebanon 4 (Aley - Chouf): Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Demo-cratic Party, and Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party Increase Their SharesIn 2009, all but one seat in the Aley and Chouf regions were won bythe March 14 list—12 in total—with 60.45% of the vote in Aley and68.50% of the votes in Chouf. The remaining seat was won by ‘Partner-

National Reconciliation

52%

Unity and Development for Baabda

34%

The Decision is Ours

7%

Together For Baabda

7%


ship of Reform’—backed by Free Patriotic Movement and the LebaneseDemocratic Party—which took 39.31% of the vote. The results were slightlydifferent in 2018. ‘Reconciliation’—backed by the Lebanese Forces, FutureMovement, and Progressive Socialist Party—still won a majority of seats(seven), but the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Democratic Party,and Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party alliance performed well, winningfour seats for their ‘Mount Lebanon’s Guarantee’ list (figure 28).


Name

Anis Nassar

Akram Chehayeb

Bilal Abdallah

Taymour Jumblatt

Georges Adwan

Mohammad El-Hajjar

Marwan Hamadeh

Nehme Tohme

Henri Helou

Talal Arslan

Cezar Abi-Khalil

Farid al Bustani

Mario Aoun

Seat

Greek

Orthodox

Druze

Sunni

Druze

Maronite

Sunni

Druze

Catholic

Maronite

Druze

Maronite

Maronite

Maronite

List

Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Reconciliation

Mount Lebanon’s

Guarantee

Mount Lebanon’s

Guarantee

Mount Lebanon’s

Guarantee

Mount Lebanon’s

Guarantee

Affiliation

Lebanese Forces




Lebanese Forces

Future Movement

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member

Non-Party Member

Lebanese

Democratic Party

Free Patriotic

Movement

Non-Party Member

Free Patriotic

Movement


Table 16 Affiliation and number of votes for MPs in Mount Lebanon 4Number of Votes

7,872

14,088

8,492

11,478

9,956

10,003

7,266

7,253

7,894

7,887

8,124

2,557

5,124

Reconciliation

58%

Free Decision

3%

National Unity

8%

Mount Lebanon's Guarantee

23%

Kulluna Watani

6%

Madaniya

2%

LCPS Policy Paper30

n Beirut 1 and Beirut 2: March 8 Parties Make Inroads across Both ofBeirut’s Voting DistrictsIn the 2009 election, Beirut was split into three districts (Beirut 1,Beirut 2, and Beirut 3), in which all but one seat (won by the AmalMovement) were won by the March 14 coalition. The 2018 election results panned out much differently as the Free Patriotic Movement-ledlist ‘Strong Beirut First’ was able to clinch four seats in the Beirut 1district—the rest were won by the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb. Thisdistrict also voted in the only victorious civil society campaign in thecountry. The capital’s second district, Beirut 2, also experienced a similar change as the list backed by Hezbollah and the Amal Movementwas able to win four seats and Fouad Makhzoumi of the Hiwar partymanaged to win a seat. The Future Movement- and Progressive SocialistParty-backed list ‘Future for Beirut’ settled for six seats (figure 29).

Figure 29 Share of votes by electoral lists in Beirut

Beirut 1

Beirut 2

Beirut First

39%

We are Beirut

3%

Strong Beirut First

42%

Kulluna Watani

16%

Future for Beirut

44%

Beirut al Watan

5%

Beirut's Opposition

1%

Beirut's Unity

33%

Lebanon is Worth It

11%Kulluna Beirut

4%People's Voice

1%Dignity for Beirut

1%


Table 17 Affiliation and number of votes for MPs in Beirut 1 and Beirut 2


Name

Beirut 1

Jean Talouzian

Imad Wakim

Nadim Gemayel

Alexandre Matossian

Antoine Pano

Nicolas Sehnaoui

Hagobe Terzian

Paula Yacoubian

Beirut 2

Tammam Salam

Roula Tabsh Jaroudi

Saad Hariri

Faisal al Sayegh

Nazih Najm

Nohad Machnouk

Fouad Makhzoumi

Edgard Traboulsi

Amin Cherri

Adnan Traboulsi

Mohammad Khawaja

Seat

Armenian

Catholic

Greek

Orthodox

Maronite

Armenian

Orthodox

Minorities

Catholic

Armenian

Orthodox

Armenian

Orthodox

Sunni

Sunni

Sunni

Druze

Greek

Orthodox

Sunni

Sunni

Evangelical

Shia

Sunni

Shia

List

Beirut First

Beirut First

Beirut First

Strong Beirut First

Strong Beirut First

Strong Beirut First

Strong Beirut First

We Are All Patriotic

For Beirut

Future For Beirut

Future For Beirut

Future For Beirut

Future For Beirut

Future For Beirut

Lebanon Is Worth It

Beirut's Unity

Beirut's Unity

Beirut's Unity

Beirut's Unity

Affiliation

Lebanese Forces

Lebanese Forces

Kataeb

Tashnag

Free Patriotic

Movement

Free Patriotic

Movement

Tashnag

Sabaa Party

Non-Party Member

Future Movement

Future Movement

Progressive

Socialist Party

Non-Party Member

Future Movement

Dialogue Party

Free Patriotic

Movement

Hezbollah

Al-Mashari'

Association

Amal Movement

Number of Votes

4,166

3,936

4,096

2,376

539

4,788

3,451

2,500

9,599

6,637

2,0751

1,902

2,351

6,411

11,346

13,018

22,961

1,919

7,834

LCPS policy papers are in-depthresearch papers that addressrelevant policy questions andshed fresh light on topics related to governance and development.

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