LCD Cost Break-down 2006 by Displaysearch
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Transcript of LCD Cost Break-down 2006 by Displaysearch
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DisplaySearch 2006 TFT LCD and Component Market Trend
2006/5/52006年平面顯示器材料與元件發展現況與趨勢研討會
DisplaySearch Taiwan David Hsieh 謝勤益
11
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Please Come! 2006 Taiwan FPD International Conference
DisplaySearch
It’s a Flat World After All!
May 25-26, 2006Taipei International Convention Center
台北國際會議中心
www.displaysearch.com.tw
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Why Is LCD Component So Important? Why Is LCD Component So Important?
-- LCD BOM Cost Represent a key portion of LCD total Cost LCD BOM Cost Represent a key portion of LCD total Cost
-- Market Concentration For Many Key Components is High Market Concentration For Many Key Components is High
-- TFT LCD Technology = Equipment Technology +TFT LCD Technology = Equipment Technology +
Component TechnologComponent Technology y
-- TFT LCD Smile Curve Shows Component Makers areTFT LCD Smile Curve Shows Component Makers are
winning the most money. winning the most money.
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LCD BOM Cost Represent a key portion
70%
17” MNT Panel total cost break down (Gen5) 32” LCD TV Panel total break down (Gen6)
79%
• BOM cost will take major portion on total cost when panel size become bigger.
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly TFT LCD Cost Report
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Color Resist• JSR (40%)
Color Filter• Toppan • DNP• In house…..
Glass• Corning (>50%)• Asahi• NHT• NEG
Driver IC• NEC• Novatek• TI• Toshiba• Himax• Matsushita• Samsung
CCFL• Harison (16%)• Matsushita • Sanken• NEC• Wellypower
Polarizer• Nitto Denko( ~35%)• Optimax• Sumitomo• LG Chem.
TAC• Fujifilm (80%)
Panel MakersTop 5 : 72%Highest : 21%
ODM/OEM• Quanta• Compal• Wistron• ASUS• Unwill• FIC• Arima• ECS• Clevo• Mitac• LG Electronics
Brand• Dell (17%)• HP• Acer• Toshiba• Lenovo• Fujitsu-Siemens• SONY• NEC• ASUS• Apple• Gateway
ODM/OEM• AOC • BenQ• Foxconn• Lite-On• Philips• Coretronics• Compal• Delta• Proview• Samsung• LG Electronics
Brand• Dell (17%)• Samsung• HP• Acer• LGE• Philips• BenQ• Viewsonic• Lenovo• SONY• NEC DS
ODM/OEM• BenQ• TECO• Sampo• Tatung• Lite-On• AOC• Compal• Visionbank• Philips• Coretronics• Albatron
Brand• Sharp (17%)• Philips• Samsung• SONY• LG Electronics• Panasonic• Toshiba• JVC• Sanyo• TTE• Syntax
Notebook PC Top 10 : >80%) LCD Monitor (Top 10 : 67%) LCD TV (Top 10 : >70%)
Market Concentration For Many Key Components is High BEF• 3M(>90%)• E-fun• Reflexite
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TFT LCD Technology
Year: 2000Gen3.5-Gen4
Year: 2004-2005
Gen5- Gen6
Year: 2006Gen7
Equipment Technology Component Technology
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
12"NB $21 $18 $16
15.4"NB $25 $23 $20
17"MNT $26 $22 $19
19"MNT $41 $34 $29
26"TV $123 $100 $75
32"TV $219 $135 $101
40"TV $411 $284 $240
Q4'04 Q4'05 Q4'06
Backlight Price
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Backlight Report
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Who is Making Profit In The Supply Chain
Integration
Mar
gin
Chemicals RetailPower
FPDMakers
BrandPower
Mat’ls &Tools
Integration
Mar
gin
ProprietaryChemicals
Special Retail
FPDMakers
Hi-EndBrandPower
SpecialityMat’ls &
Tools
Integration
Mar
gin Chemicals
Films
RetailPower
FPDMakers
BrandPower
Mat’ls &Tools
Past Now
Mainstream
Mainstream
Niche
Source: DisplaySearch Display Economics Report
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 2006 TFT LCD TFT LCD Market Outlook Market Outlook TFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- GlassGlass-- Color Filter Color Filter -- Polarizer Polarizer -- TAC TAC -- Backlight & CCFLBacklight & CCFL-- Driver ICDriver ICWrapWrap--Up Up
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 T2006 TFT LCD FT LCD Market OutlookMarket OutlookTFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- GlassGlass-- Color Filter Color Filter -- Polarizer Polarizer -- TAC TAC -- Backlight & CCFLBacklight & CCFL-- Driver ICDriver ICWrapWrap--Up Up
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TFT LCD Area and Average Size Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mill
ions
of m
2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Gro
wth
TFT Panel Area 12.6 23.1 32.9 42.8 53.1 63.7 73.8
Growth 51% 82% 43% 30% 24% 20% 16%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10
15
20
25
30
35
Avg.
Pan
el D
iago
nal
LCD Monitors 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.0
LCD TVs 21.6 25.8 27.9 29.2 30.5 31.7 32.8
Notebook PCs 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Panel shipment area growth was an astonishing 82% in 2005 led by LCD TV modules rising from 22” to 26”. Area growth will slow as unit volume slows in monitors, but will remain impressive.Panel shipment area growth will be 43% from 2005-2006.
Source: DisplaySearch Worldwide Forecast Report
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After The Merge Of AUO & QDI
Worldwide TFT LCD Capacity Share (Before AUO & QDI Merge)Area Base
2005 2006 2007 2008Samsung 18.6% 19.4% 18.8% 19.0%LPL 19.1% 19.3% 18.3% 18.6%AUO 12.7% 13.2% 13.9% 13.6%CMO 10.6% 12.1% 14.5% 15.6%Sharp 8.1% 6.5% 7.7% 8.4%CPT 5.7% 6.6% 5.9% 5.5%QDI 4.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4%HannStar 5.1% 4.3% 3.3% 2.7%Others 16.1% 14.0% 13.0% 12.2%
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Supply Demand Report
Worldwide TFT LCD Capacity Share (After AUO & QDI Merge)Area Base
2005 2006 2007 2008Samsung 19.4% 18.8% 19.0%LPL 19.3% 18.3% 18.6%AUO+QDI 17.8% 18.5% 18.0%CMO 12.1% 14.5% 15.6%Sharp 6.5% 7.7% 8.4%CPT 6.6% 5.9% 5.5%HannStar 4.3% 3.3% 2.7%Others 14.0% 13.0% 12.2%
Component Makers Are Facing two market –60% v.s. 40% (Blue Sea & Red Sea? )
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L/A TFT LCD Demand Supply Forecast
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Seasonal Surplus -1.3% 3.9% 15.5% 9.2% 6.0% 3.0% -2.6% 4.6% 17.4% 20.3% 13.4% 13.1% 26.0% 28.7% 23.7% 22.5%
Smoothed Surplus 0.7% 5.1% 8.6% 8.6% 6.1% 3.7% 4.2% 6.5% 14.1% 17.0% 15.6% 17.5% 22.6% 26.1% 24.9% 26.8%
Component Limited Seasonal Surplus -4.5% -3.2% 6.4% 3.0% -2.5% -4.1% -6.0% -8.0% 5.3% 6.4% 6.2% 5.3% 10.0% 7.5% 5.4% 3.0%
Component Limited Smoothed Surplus -4.7% -0.4% 2.1% 2.3% -1.2% -4.2% -6.1% -2.9% 1.2% 6.0% 6.0% 7.2% 7.6% 7.6% 5.3% 5.3%
Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04 Q1'05 Q2'05 Q3'05 Q4'05 Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07
5% Balance with components constrains
OverSupply
Shortage ShortageOver
SupplyTight
OverSupply
10% Balance withoutConsidering components
Source: DisplaySearch Supply-Demand & Capital Spending Report
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Sell Through is Good. But Too Many Panel Inventory
TV Share by Week by Technology
12/25/04 4/30/05 9/24/05 11/26/05 12/17/05 12/31/05 1/14/06 2/11/06 2/25/06 3/11/06 3/18/06
CRT TV 67.3% 62.8% 56.0% 48.1% 53.5% 55.3% 50.2% 52.3% 50.7% 50.0% 50.2%
LCD TV 6.8% 11.2% 15.8% 14.8% 19.9% 21.0% 22.5% 23.0% 22.3% 23.8% 23.0%
PDP TV 1.4% 2.9% 5.8% 5.5% 5.1% 3.5% 6.6% 7.4% 5.4% 5.8% 5.7%
CRT Projection 2.7% 4.3% 3.1% 8.7% 2.9% 1.3% 2.1% 2.7% 2.7% 1.7% 2.0%
LCD Projection 2.2% 3.1% 3.2% 5.9% 3.2% 1.6% 3.3% 1.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9%
DLP Projection 1.1% 2.4% 2.4% 4.4% 1.7% 1.0% 2.6% 1.7% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9%
LCOS Projection 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2%
Combo TV 18.5% 13.0% 13.3% 11.6% 13.0% 15.9% 11.8% 10.2% 12.0% 12.3% 13.2%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
X’mas
Source: NPD Weekly N/A Sell-Through
After X’mas
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The Gap of MNT Panel v.s. MNT Set
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
March April May June July August September October November December January February0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
March April May June July August September October November December January February
Source: DisplaySearch Monitor Newsletter
Monthly MNT Panel shipment - Monthly MNT Set
shipmentMonthly MNT Set
shipment
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 T2006 TFT LCD FT LCD Market Outlook Market Outlook TFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- GlassGlass-- Color Filter Color Filter -- Polarizer Polarizer -- TAC TAC -- Backlight & CCFLBacklight & CCFL-- Driver IC Driver IC WrapWrap--Up Up
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ODM/OEM Brand
Notebook PC LCD Monitor
Small & Medium LCD
DSC,NAVI/Car TV
PDA
LCD TV
LCD Market Supply Chain
Large Area LCD
Mobile Phone
Distribution Channel / Retail Channel / Direct Sales Channels / End User Behavior
ODM/OEM Brand
ODM/OEM
BrandMP3 Player
Glass Substrate
Color Filter
Driver IC Back Light Unit Polarizer
Manufacturing Equipments
FPD MakersChemicals Power Supply
Color Resist
Photo Mask
PackagingTesting
Wafer Foundry
FramePCBFilm
FPC
TAC PVALGP CCFL/LED Film
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17” vs 32” BOM Cost break down
17” MNT Panel BOM break down (Gen5) 32” LCD TV BOM break down (Gen6)
Source: DisplaySearch Cost model
• 17” monitor panels: backlight and color filter accounted 40% of BOM cost• 32” LCD TV panels: backlight and color filter accounted 52% of BOM cost
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 T2006 TFT LCD FT LCD Market Outlook Market Outlook TFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- Glass Substrate Glass Substrate -- Color Filter Color Filter -- Polarizer Polarizer -- TAC TAC -- Backlight & CCFLBacklight & CCFL-- Driver ICDriver ICWrapWrap--Up Up
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Yielded Glass Substrate Share Forecast• Corning’s capacity share increase a little bit throughout the forecast period due to Corning’s new tanks and
sole position in supplying very large substrate. • Corning will continue to lead with 60% by Q4’07• The share of NEG step up slightly due to new glass unit continually increase. • The TFT LCD Glass substrate market is moving to high centralization slightly.
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Glass Substrate Report
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
SCHOTT 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
NHT 8.4% 7.7% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
NEG 15.5% 14.9% 16.6% 16.3% 15.9% 15.1% 15.8% 16.5% 17.1% 17.4% 16.6% 15.9%
Corning 56.9% 58.7% 57.8% 59.1% 60.3% 60.5% 60.7% 59.5% 58.5% 58.4% 59.4% 60.7%
AGC 18.8% 18.3% 18.2% 17.4% 16.7% 17.3% 16.4% 16.8% 17.1% 16.9% 16.8% 16.1%
Q1'05 Q2'05 Q3'05 Q4'05 Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07
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Floating Scalable to very large size, but needs
polishing.
Maker: CorningNHT
Down Draw
Easier to control the thickness, but needs
polishing.
Maker: NEG
Fusion Width is scalable, no
polishing needed. But per tank capacity
is small.
Making the LCD Glass Substrate
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Glass Substrate Report
Maker: Asahi
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Generation MG Size V (mm) H (mm) Q4'05 Q1'06Gen4.5 730 x 920 730 920 6,651 6,523Gen5 1100 x 1300 1100 1300 7,316 7,012Gen5.5 1300 x 1500 1300 1500 8,978 8,479Gen6 1500 x 1850 1500 1850 8,821 8,033Gen7 1870 x 2200 1870 2200 9,766 8,960Gen7.5 1950 x 2250 1950 2250 10,968
Glass Substrate Price ( Japanese Yen / M²)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Gen4.5 Gen5 Gen5.5 Gen6 Gen7 Gen7.50
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Area(m²)Price(Yen)
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Glass Substrate Report
Good Gen7 Price High Gen5.5
Price
Gen6Go down faster
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TFT LCD Glass Substrate Supply/Demand* Supply situation will be OK because of Asahi and NEG are getting mature in larger substrate. But Gen7~Gen8 remain the sole supplier Corning. It will be highly depending on the Corning allocation for Gen7~Gen8.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Uni
t: 00
0 m
2/m
o
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Glass Supply 5,181 6,099 7,281 8,031 8,509 9,174 9,982 10,692 11,434 12,031 12,619 13,168
Demand (DisplaySearch) 5,050 6,126 7,502 7,858 8,214 8,808 9,306 9,544 9,426 10,160 11,525 11,857
S/D % 2.6% -0.4% -2.9% 2.2% 3.6% 4.2% 7.3% 12.0% 21.3% 18.4% 9.5% 11.1%
Q1'05 Q2'05 Q3'05 Q4'05 Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Glass Substrate Report
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Corning Eagle XG glass
• Corning announced EAGLE XG in the 2006 DisplaySearch US FPD conference. • This extra green product advancement is the first active-matrix liquid crystal display
(LCD) glass substrate free of arsenic (As), antimony (Sb) and barium (Ba).
Corning Eagle 2000 Corning Eagle XGArsenic(AS2O3) <1.5% 0%Anitimony(Sb2O3) 0% 0%Barium (BaO) 0% 0%
Source: Corning
Existing New
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 T2006 TFT LCD FT LCD Market Outlook Market Outlook TFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- Glass SubstrateGlass Substrate-- Color FilterColor Filter-- Polarizer Polarizer -- TAC TAC -- Backlight & CCFLBacklight & CCFL-- Driver ICDriver ICWrapWrap--Up Up
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CF In-house vs. external procurement Share
•• Merchant regains slows Internal share slightly with DNP & Toppan G7.5 fabs, but trend still strong towards Internal.
Note: Yielded 14.1” forecast output capacity per month
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Merchant 44% 43% 42% 40% 38% 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 32% 32% 32%Internal 56% 57% 58% 60% 62% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68% 68% 68% 68%
Q3'05 Q4'05 Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08
•• Internal Exceed Merchant. As TFT LCD maker tend to build the
new TFT along with CF
the new generation CF will not influence the overall supply
demand generally. Only the specific case (yield rate) will impact
the overall supply demand
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Color Filter Supply/Demand (14.1” BaseBase)
05
1015202530354045505560657075
14.1
" (M
illio
n U
nits
/Mon
th)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
(Sur
plus
/Sho
rtage
)
CF Demand st DS Forecast 18.0 19.6 18.8 22.7 26.0 31.9 38.7 38.8 36.1 36.9 42.1 46.2 43.2 44.9 51.4 55.7
CF Supply 17.2 19.1 20.7 23.6 26.9 32.7 39.3 40.4 41.5 45.2 48.5 54.1 59.9 64.5 68.5 71.0
Demand at Full Utilization 18.4 20.6 22.7 25.7 28.5 33.3 38.5 42.9 44.8 47.5 50.3 55.4 60.9 65.3 70.0 74.9
CF Glut at DS Forecast -4% -3% 9% 4% 3% 2% 1% 4% 13% 18% 13% 15% 28% 30% 25% 22%
Glass Glut at DS Forecast -4% -2% 8% 2% 2% 1% 0% 3% 11% 14% 6% 5% 14% 15% 8% 3%
CF Glut at Full Utilization -7% -8% -10% -9% -6% -2% 2% -6% -8% -5% -4% -2% -2% -1% -2% -5%
Q104 Q204 Q304 Q404 Q105 Q205 Q305 Q405 Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407
* DS Forecast = DisplaySearch Forecast On Panel Demand , Full Utilization = Assume all fab are in full utilization.
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CColor Filter olor Filter Supply Chain By SupplierSupply Chain By Supplier•• LPL and CMO have over 90% in house CF .
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Samsung
LPL
AUO
CMO
CPT
HannStar
Innolux
QDI
Toppoly TPNDNPTRYSTIACTISintekCandoAMTCIn house
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Color Filter Report
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slit & spin coating
spinning
Spin coating spin-less coating
Color Resist Coating in Color Filter ProcessColor Resist Coating in Color Filter Process
Ink Jet Printing
Spin Slit + Spin Slit only Reverse PrintingOr Inkjet
3.5G – 4G4G – 6G
6G – 7G
extrusion
ReversePrinting
* No exposure, equipment cost down• Not stable in VA panels • Reduce the space of the clean room• Ink is not stable for Ink Jet Printing
• Traditional• Unable to handleGen4 and abovesubstrate
•Waste onColor Resist
• No waste on color resist• designed to cope with large substrate • Machines are big, clean room space requirement
10% Cost Down Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Color Filter Report
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 T2006 TFT LCD FT LCD Market Outlook Market Outlook TFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- Glass SubstrateGlass Substrate-- Color Filter Color Filter -- Polarizer Polarizer -- TACTAC-- Backlight & CCFL Backlight & CCFL -- Driver ICDriver ICWrapWrap--Up Up
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Polarizer cost structure Normal PolarizerNormal Polarizer VA PolarizerVA Polarizer
PSAPSARelease filmRelease film
Protective filmProtective film
PVAPVATACTAC
TACTAC
Surface ProtectionFilm17%
TAC42%
PVA10%
CompensationFilm26%
Adhesive layer0%
Release Film5%Surface
ProtectionFilm23%
TAC56%
Adhesivelayer0%
ReleaseFilm7%
PVA14%
Materials80%
Director labor9%
Indirectorabor7%
Depreciation4%
Polarizer total cost structurePolarizer total cost structureCost StructureCost Structure Cost StructureCost Structure
PSAPSA
PVAPVATACTAC
Compensation FilmCompensation Film
PSAPSA
PVAPVATACTAC
Compensation FilmCompensation Film
PSAPSA
PVAPVATACTAC
TACTAC
PSAPSA
PVAPVATACTAC
Compensation FilmCompensation Film
Double BiaxialDouble Biaxial Single BiaxialSingle Biaxial
Source: DisplaySearch Q206 Quarterly Optical Film Report
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2005 TFT-LCD Polarizer Shipment share by Suppliers
Area Base
Nitto33%
Santriz9%Sumitomo
12%Polatechno
2%
LG Chem.17%
Ace Digitech2%
Optimax20%
Daxon3%
Others2%
Source: DisplaySearch Q206 Quarterly Optical Film Report
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Skypolar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.7%
CMEL 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.0%
Daxon 0.0% 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.1%
ACE Digitech 1.6% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2%
Polartechno 4.1% 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0%
Sanritz 14.3% 13.0% 9.5% 8.3% 8.2%
LG Chem 9.4% 11.6% 12.7% 14.2% 12.0%
Sumitomo 18.5% 15.3% 13.1% 13.0% 16.1%
Optimax 17.5% 19.5% 20.0% 20.1% 17.7%
Nitto Denko 34.7% 33.9% 35.8% 34.6% 34.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
W/W Polarizer Capacity Share (Area Base)
Source: DisplaySearch Q206 Quarterly Optical Film Report
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TAC Demand-SupplyTAC makers has increased the new capacity in Q4’06, causing a better supply scenario.But Q3’06 will be still shortage due to strong demand of LCD TV panels consuming large area TAC film.
0
100
200
300
400
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
(Sur
plus
/Sho
rtage
)
TAC Capacity 252 270 305 320 355 375 445 465 TAC Demand 251 274 302 304 327 356 432 442
TAC Supply Demand -1.0% -3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0%
Q1'05 Q2'05 Q3'05 Q4'05 Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06
Million Square Meters
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Optical Film Report
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$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
15.4_1280x800_TN TN $9.4 $9.2 $8.9 $8.7 $8.5 $8.2 17.0_1280x1024_TN TN $12.6 $12.2 $11.9 $11.6 $11.3 $11.0 32.0_1366x768_VA VA $37.6 $35.8 $34.0 $32.3 $30.7 $29.1 37.0_1366x768_VA VA $50.1 $47.6 $45.2 $43.0 $40.8 $38.8 42.0_1366x768_VA VA $70.8 $66.4 $62.2 $58.3 $54.7 $51.3
Q3'05 Q4'05 Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06
Polarizer Price Trend
15.4_1280x800_TN -2.6%17.0_1280x1024_TN -2.6%32.0_1366x768_VA -5.0%37.0_1366x768_VA -5.0%42.0_1366x768_VA -6.3%
Q3’05-Q4’05 QuarterlyAverage Price Reduction
The VA Compensation Polarizer War between Nitto Denko’s X-plate and Optimax’s F9 (co-developed with Fujifilm) will drive the TV polarizer price down faster in 2H’06
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Optical Film Report
DisplaySearch All Rights Preserved. Reproduction & Distribution Prohibited Without DisplaySearch Permission 35
L/A TFT LCD Polarizers Supply Chain (LCD TV)CompanyNative Company Name Samsung
LG.Philips LCD
BOE-Hydis
TMDisplay Sharp
Sanyo-Epson AUO CMO
Japan Nitto 40% 30% 90% 62% 30%Japan Sanrtiz 30%Japan Sumitomo 60% 15% 10%Japan PolatechnoKorea LG Chem 55%Korea Ace DigitechKorea Shinwha OptTaiwan Optimax 8% 70%Taiwan DaxonTaiwan Chi MeiTaiwan SkypolarTaiwan PolarayOthersTotal 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100%
LCD TV Polarizer Value Chain
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Optical Film Report
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 T2006 TFT LCD FT LCD Market Outlook Market Outlook TFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- Glass SubstrateGlass Substrate-- Color Filter Color Filter -- Polarizer Polarizer -- TAC TAC -- Backlight & CCFLBacklight & CCFL-- Driver ICDriver ICWrapWrap--Up Up
DisplaySearch All Rights Preserved. Reproduction & Distribution Prohibited Without DisplaySearch Permission 37
BEF Film MakerBEF Film Maker
Film Cutting TrimmerFilm Cutting Trimmer
Package & Shipment Package & Shipment
CCFL Supplier CCFL Supplier
Lamp Set Packer Lamp Set Packer ( Sub Contract) ( Sub Contract)
Welding & Assembly Welding & Assembly
Diffuser Film MakerDiffuser Film Maker
Film Cutting Trimmer Film Cutting Trimmer
Light Guide Plate Raw Light Guide Plate Raw Material Suppliers Material Suppliers
( PMMA )( PMMA )( ( ZeonorZeonor ) )
BLU MakerBLU Maker
Reflector film Reflector film MakerMaker
Film Cutting Trimmer Film Cutting Trimmer (In(In--House or Sub Contract) House or Sub Contract)
Light Guide PlateLight Guide PlateMaker Maker
(Printing / Injection) (Printing / Injection)
Metal FrameMetal FrameMaterials Materials
Metal FrameMetal FrameMakers Makers
Backlight Structure
DisplaySearch All Rights Preserved. Reproduction & Distribution Prohibited Without DisplaySearch Permission 38
Total CCFL/EEFL Capacity % By Supplier
Not
e: T
otal
cap
acity
, all
appl
icat
ions
and
all
size
s. B
ased
on
man
ufac
ture
rs’p
lans
, but
cap
acity
>5
mon
ths
out u
ndec
ided
(i.e
. no
PO
s)
•Top 5 share decrease from 63% in Q4’05 to 57% in Q4’06, and will further go down to 54% in Q4’07. The CCFL industry is gradually becoming decentralizing.
Lamp Supplier Q405 Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407Harison Toshiba 16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13%Sanken 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%Matsushita 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%Stanley 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%NEC 11% 10% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%Kumho (Korea) 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%Heesung (Korea) 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%Wooree ETI (Korea) 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%Wellypower (Taiwan) 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9%Delta (Taiwan) 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5%GIO (Taiwan) 1% 2% 2% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4%Sintronic (Taiwan) 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Hitachi (Taiwan) 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%CPT (Taiwan) 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Source: DisplaySearch CCFL & Backlight Report
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Large TFT CC/EEFL Share By Application By Supplier
• Due to the competition from Korea and Taiwan, as well as the higher technical barrier for NBCCFL and TV CCFL, Japanese makers are shifting their focus to Notebook and LCD TV CCFL.. The conservative attitude of Japanese CCFL companies are limiting the capacity of CCFL. • CCFL makers are investing by Market Demand Base rather than TFT LCD Capacity Base. • Korean CCFL makers and Taiwanese makers are emerging in the LCD TV area.
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
NB MNT TVTop 5 share 95% 71% 90%
Source: DisplaySearch CCFL & Backlight Report
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* Many CCFL suppliers of Taiwan, Japan and Korea are expanding aggressively, and large capacity is expected for 2H’06. Overall tight situation will be reversed from 2H’06.
CCFL Supply Demand Outlook
* DS Forecast = DisplaySearch Forecast On Panel Demand , Full Utilization = Assume all fab are in full utilization.
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250
(Mill
ion
Uni
ts/M
onth
)
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
(Sur
plus
/Sho
rtage
)
CCFL Demand st DS Frcst 103.8 113.0 122.5 133.2 140.7 142.8 159.4 188.5 196.1
CCFL Capacity 103.1 115.1 124.7 140.1 157.2 172.0 186.8 199.1 211.7
Demand at Full Utilization 106.4 129.3 140.9 155.1 168.0 193.7 224.8 241.3 239.9
CCFL Glut at DS Frcst -1% 2% 2% 5% 11% 17% 15% 5% 7%
CCFL Glut at Full Utlztn -3% -12% -13% -11% -7% -13% -20% -21% -13%
4Q05 Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407
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Wooyoung, Radiant, Coretronic, Pontex, Kenmos, JinMinShang, GLT, Enplas, Zeon,
Light Guide Plate
Arima Optoelectronics, Tekcore, Lumileds, Lite-On, LEDTech, Rohm, Samsung, Toyoda Gosei Nichia, New SEADA, Solid Guide, Taiwan Oasis, Osram,Stanley, LG, Toshiba, Agilent, Unity Opto, Epistar, Everlight,
LED
Stanely,Nippon ED, Chatani, Nippon Denyo, Fujitsu Kasei, Sharp, Tama, Seiko-Epson, Taitsu, Kiryu, Yamato, Hitachi, Kuroda, Mitsubishi, Yuka
JapanBLU Makers
Radiant, Coretronic, K-Bridge, Forhouse, Prokia(Kenmos), Chilin, Nano, SET(Sharp Taiwan), Helix, KHE, Nano-Op, Forward,
Taiwan
Asahi, Teijin,
Korea Wooyoung, Taesan LCD, DongSan LCD, DID, Heesung, Shinpyung, SangNong, Sungwoo LCD ,Wonwoo, eLiteCom, Hansol LCD,
Reflector
Suppliers and Current Share BLU Components
Keiwa (48%), Tsujiden (30%), SKC (20%), Kimoto (5%), Hitachi Chemical, Pioneer, Diffuser (Materials)
Harison-Toshiba (17%), Sanken(14%), Panasonic-West(15%), NEC (10%), Stanley (7%), Kumho (9%), Wellypower (11%), Others,
CCFL
Asahi Kasei(35%), Mitsubishi (30%) Kuraray (18%), Sumitomo Kakaku(<1%), Chi-Mei Corporation (10%)
LGP Raw Materials
3M (75%), Efun (19%) , Mitsubishi Reyon(1%), Goyo (5%)BEF(lens)
L/A TFT LCD BLU Supply Chain
Source: DisplaySearch CCFL & Backlight Report
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NB MNT TV TV TV TV15.4"W 17" 26"W 32"W 40"W/42"W 46"W/47"W
CCFL 7% 17% 23% 22% 19% 23%Lightguide 10% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Diffusion board 0% 0% 8% 10% 16% 16%Diffusion sheet 13% 8% 5% 7% 3% 2%Reflective sheet 6% 6% 2% 5% 3% 2%
BEF & DBEF 25% 12% 11% 9% 24% 20%Metal Bezel Backt 12% 13% 8% 7% 5% 5%Others Materials 8% 12% 6% 7% 5% 6%
L.O.P.,SG&A, Package 17% 19% 9% 9% 7% 6%Inverter Cost 0% 0% 29% 24% 18% 20%
Total Cost (w/h Inverter) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Size
Base: Q4’05 , CCFL Backlight. DBEF-less in 32” and below LCD TV Panels
L/A TFT LCD BLU Cost Structure By Sizes • CCFL is always a key portion in LCD BLU, for LCD TV BLU, inverter is critical too. • As long as an emerging trend to take away DBEF in 32” and below LCD TV BLU, the BEF &
DBEF portion is reducing. But for 37” and above, no substitution to replace DBEF yet.
Source: DisplaySearch CCFL & Backlight Report
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Company 2004 2005 2006 2007K-Bridge 14.4 19.8 24.0 27.6 Coretronic 18.3 38.7 65.4 81.6 Forhouse 12.6 15.3 19.8 21.6 Kenmos 6.0 8.6 10.5 10.8 Radiant 25.2 33.6 48.0 60.0 Forward 9.6 11.1 15.9 18.0 Taesan 20.4 25.2 30.3 38.1 Wooyoung 9.6 11.4 12.0 14.4 DS-LCD 6.0 10.8 13.2 13.2 Heesung 9.6 15.9 22.2 24.0 Hansol 6.0 8.4 9.9 10.8 L & F 4.8 12.0 15.0 19.5 Stanley 15.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 Sharp 12.6 17.7 22.8 25.2 Yuka 1.8 5.4 6.0 6.0 Others 22.8 28.2 30.0 36.0 Total 194.7 280.1 363.0 424.8
W/W L/A LCD BLU Capacity By MakersMillion Units
By Factory Locations
By Makers Nationalities
Source: DisplaySearch CCFL & Backlight Report
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Sharp19%
Wooyoung7%
L&F2%
Wonwoo7%
Heesung17%
DID1%
DS LCD5%
Hansol4%
Coretronic15%
Fuchi2%
Kenmos5%
Forhouse1%
CLT6%
AUO0.3%
Hitachi1%
K-bridge2%
Radiant3%
Tama1%
2005 LCD TV Backlight Shipment Share
20”
31 Million
<20”
22-27”
32”
37”~55”
Source: DisplaySearch CCFL & Backlight Report
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Backlight Technology Comparison
CCFL EEFL LED OLED FFLPrice (Now) 1X 1X 2.5X~3X ? ?Price (2H'06~1H'07) 1X 0.9X 1.8X~2X ? ?Strike Voltage 1KV~1.2KV 1.5KV~2.5KV <10V <10V 24VColor Gamut (NTSC) 70%-72% 70%-72% 100% 100% 80%Life Time (Hours) 50K~60K >60K 50K 12K~15K 100KGas Ar. Ne Ar. Ne - - XePower Consumption Fair Good Excellent Good Not GoodInverter Design/Cost Easy/Low Lower Easy/Low Easy/Low Very Easy/Very LowLamps # (32") 16 20 - - -Mecury 4mg <4mg Free Free FreeColor Uniformity OK OK Not Good OK ?Brightness Efficiency(Lm/W 60~80 60~80 20~30 20 30Supply Status Open Limited Complex ? ?Issues to be solved Mecury Supply Issue Cost Lifetime Productivity
Supply Issue 40"+ Large Size Thermal Productivity Power Consumption
Color Gamut Control Circit Complexity Design Structure Cost
Design Structure
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Light Sources at present Not Yet
Low High
Good
Cost
Mat
urity
CCFL(Cold CathodeFluorescent
Lamp)
EEFL(External Electron
Fluorescent Lamp)
LED(Light Emitting
Diode)
FFL(Flat Fluorescent
Lamp)
OLED(Organic LED)
CNT(Cabon-Nano
Tube)
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Backlight Evolution (Notebook)• Initiated and patented by Mitsubishi Rayon. • To merge the Prism sheet (BEF) with the LGP (Light Guide Plate) by forming V-groove on LGP.• Cost is actually not reducing but increasing because V-cut LGP injection yield rate is not good. • Main reason to adapt : Brightness , Thinner Design
V-cut BLUMakers
Main TFT LCDCustomers
Yuka AUO, SEC
Enplas Sharp
Kenmos CMO
Coretronic QDI
Radiant AUO, CPT, QDI
Nano AUO, CPT, QDI
Mitsubishi LPL, SEC
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Backlight Evolution (LCD TV)
Diffuser
BEF
BEF
DBEF
Conventional Direct Type LCD TV Backlight
New Light Source:4 Color CCFL, U-Lamp, LED, EEFL,
FFL, CNT, Flat LED
BEF + Diffuser Polzarizer
1. Replace DBEF with BEF + Diffuser
2. Micro Lense
Micro-Structure Diffuser Micro-Structure Collector
• In order to cost down, BLU makers and LCD makers are co-working to change the structureof the BLU through elimination on the films and develop new light sources.
3. Polarizing Reflection Nitto Denko PCF (or APCF)
4. Introducing new BEF sourcesEfunLG Chemical SKCGoyo Giko
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LED Backlight For Notebook PC
Source: www.sonystyle.comSONY VAIO TX
Pros: Thin and light Backlight, No inverter, Mecury Free, Thin Bezel, Lower Power Consumption
Toshiba Libretto U100
Fujits T70
Con: Cost, Constrained to high end products
Now 2H’06~
11” 12”-13”
Notebook TFT LCD LCD Maker Luminance LED #Sony VAIO TX 11.1"WXGA+ TMDS 240 nits 40Toshiba Libertto U1007.2"WXGA Sharp 220 nits 12Fujitsu T70 10.6" WXGA Samsung 170 nits 20
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LED Backlight For LCD TV Pros: High Color Saturation, Dynamic Contrast Control, Blinking Banklight to reduce response time.
Con: Cost, Constrained to high end products
SONY Qualia40” & 46”
2H’06~
32”~37”40”-46”40”/46”
1H’05~
Samsung32” CLT-TFT *CLT=Colorfilter Less TFT
LCD TV TFT LCD Panel Supplie Luminance LED #
Sony Qualia 40"WXGA+,46"WXGA+ S-LCD 500 nits 450
Samsung Protype 32" WXGA+ Samsunng 500 nits 300
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The Issues of LED Backlight LED Brightness EfficiencyLED Package Improvement
LED Cost Thermal Solution
Structure Improvement
Color Decay Stability
LED Control IC
LED Backlight Structure
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Backlight Forecast By Technologies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
CCFL/EEFL Backlight 139 205.7 259.8 295.5 320.5 345.2 LED & FFL Backlight 0.3 2.3 10.5 28.5 44.8 Non CCFL/EEFL Share 0.2% 0.9% 3.5% 8.9% 13.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Million Base
Notebook 11” 12”/13” 15”/15.4”
Monitor 21”/23” 23”/24”
LCD TV
LED & FFL
40”/46” 32”/37”/40”/46”
Critical Path for LED BLU and FFL BLU will be Q4’06~1H’07, especially on the cost reduction
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 T2006 TFT LCD FT LCD Market Outlook Market Outlook TFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- Glass SubstrateGlass Substrate-- Color Filter Color Filter -- Polarizer Polarizer -- TAC TAC -- Backlight & CCFL Backlight & CCFL -- Driver ICDriver ICWrapWrap--Up Up
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Large Area TFT LCD Driver IC Market
Large TFT LCD Driver IC
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
$-
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
Q'ty ('000pcs) 853,341 1,253,002 1,760,389 2,846,138 3,681,708 4,430,975 5,157,813 5,870,815 6,632,882
Revenues ('000 USD) $1,429,876 $1,999,098 $2,877,162 $4,278,029 $4,958,020 $5,063,712 $5,857,280 $6,879,783 $7,128,141
ASP $1.68 $1.60 $1.63 $1.50 $1.35 $1.14 $1.14 $1.17 $1.07
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
•Large Area TFT LCD Driver market is expected to grow to a US$7.1 billion market in 2010•From US$4.3 billion in 2005. 2006 market is expected to be US$5 Billion, 16% growth from 2005. The main driving forces are coming from the Notebook PC, MNT and LCD TV panels.
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Large Area TFT LCD Driver IC Market share (2005)
2005 Large Area TFT Driver IC Ranking
Company Shipment(Million Market Share
Samsung 525 18.4%Novatek 507 17.8%Himax 475 16.7%NEC 470 16.5%OKI 200 7.0%Mangachip 186 6.5%Panasonic 105 3.7%DenMOS 86 3.0%Renesas 81 2.8%Sharp 45 1.6%Philips 40 1.4%Sunplus 37 1.3%Winbond 30 1.1%Others 59 2.1%Total 2846 100%
Others, 2.1%Sharp, 1.6%
Philips, 1.4%
Sunplus, 1.3%Winbond, 1.1%
Renesas, 2.8%
DenMOS, 3.0%
Panasonic, 3.7%
Mangachip, 6.5%
OKI, 7.0%
NEC, 16.5%
Samsung, 18.4%
Novatek, 17.8%
Himax, 16.7%
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Driver IC trend for Large Panel
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Output Channel
PKG(PAD Ptich)
COF(38㎛)
TCP/COF(40~45㎛)
COF(35㎛)
384Ch(XGA/WXGA) / 420Ch (SXGA+)
480Ch (SXGA/UXGA)
600/618/630/642Ch
840/960/1024Ch
COF(25㎛)
COF(20㎛)
•COF (Chip On Film) More pin counts per driver (384/432/480 ch 642/720 ch)•COG (Chip On Glass) Smaller die size
Output Channel
Package(smaller die size)
COF IC
COG IC
384Ch/420 Ch/ 432Ch /480 ch
43㎛
35㎛
30㎛
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Agenda For Today Agenda For Today
2006 T2006 TFT LCD FT LCD Market Outlook Market Outlook TFT LCD TFT LCD Supply Chain & Supply Chain & TFT LCD Cost StructureTFT LCD Cost StructureKey component Key component Market Market TrendTrend-- Glass SubstrateGlass Substrate-- Color Filter Color Filter -- Polarizer Polarizer -- TAC TAC -- Backlight & CCFL Backlight & CCFL -- Driver ICDriver ICWrapWrap--UpUp
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LCD Materials are ……………….
1. Influencing the Cost Structure of TFT LCD very much with 70%-80% BOM Cost.
2. The Market is becoming decentralizing especially for Optical Films, CCFL and Backlight. And more panel makers are taking vertical integrations. As long as panel makers are getting bigger through Merger, component makers are facing more pressure for price reduction.
3. The Challenges of LCD Component makers has been shifting from “Capacity Leadership to “Technology & Management Leadership” ---- Examples: Color Filters, LED backlights, Driver IC and Polarizer.
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Please Come! 2006 Taiwan FPD International Conference
DisplaySearch
It’s a Flat World After All!
May 25-26, 2006Taipei International Convention Center
台北國際會議中心
www.displaysearch.com.tw
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David Hsieh 謝勤益
DisplaySearch
An NPD Group Company.
886-2-6601-0045 0911-155-998
www.DisplaySearch.com