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Source: SBP, PSX, NCCPL, BMA Research Bloomberg

Economy: Domestic /InternationalMonday, November 26, 2018

Morning News Lahore Chamber of Commerce & IndustryGood Morning !

Currencies

E conomy: Domestic / International

Cost of domestic debt servicing mirrors existing policy rate

Morning News Lahore Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Chart of the Day

Monday, April 8, 2019

5.0%

15 %

14 %

13 %

12 %

11 %

10 %

9 %

8 %

7 %

6 %

7.5%

10 %

12.5 %

15 %

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1HFY19

Debt Servicing Cost Effective Rate Period End Policy Rate

Oil at five-month highs amid OPEC-led supply cuts, U.S. sanctions (Reuters)

Oil prices rose to their highest level since Nov. 2018 on Monday, driven up by OPEC's ongoing supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and strong U.S. jobs data. read more

Pakistan economic growth will slow down to 3.4 percent: World Bank (Dawn)

The World Bank has forecasted that Pakistan''s economic growth will slow down to 3.4 percent during current fiscal and will further decelerate to 2.7 percent in 2019-2020, as fiscal and monetary policies are tightened to address macroeconomic imbalances. Pakistan''s GDP growth is projected to slow down to 3.4 percent in fiscal year 2018-19, from 5.8 percent a year before…read more

Pakistan, IMF at odds over Rs5.4tr tax collection target (ET)

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been unable to sort out differences over the fiscal policy because of the latter’s demand that the federal tax collection be increased to nearly 13% of the size of the country’s economy within a year…read more

Global economy enters ‘synchronisedslowdown’ (Financial Times)

The global economy has entered a “synchronised slowdown” which may be difficult to reverse in 2019, according to the latest update of a tracking index compiled by the Brookings Institution think-tank and the Financial Times.…read more

SBP official creates stir with FATF remarks (Dawn)

A high-ranking official of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) created a stir on social media with remarks given to a regional newspaper, which quoted him saying “Pakistan will be out of grey list by September 2019…read more

Maturity of international bond: Pakistan to pay back $1.129 bn next week (News)

Pakistan will have to pay back over $1.129 billion next week on maturity of five year international bond at a time when the country’s net international reserves…read more

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Economy: Domestic /InternationalMonday, November 26, 2018

Morning News Lahore Chamber of Commerce & IndustryGood Morning !

Source: SBP, PSX, NCCPL, BMA Research Bloomberg

Commodities

Morning News Lahore Chamber of Commerce & Industry

E conomy: Domestic / InternationalMoney Market Data 1Mp CY19TD

Tenor Rate (bps) (bps) KIBOR 6 mths 10.8% 0.04T-Bill 3 mths 10.5% 0.21T-Bill 6 mths 10.7% 0.07T-Bill 12 mths 11.1%

3 yrs 11.9%5 yrs 12.4%

-0.030.210.150.080.050.05

PIBPIBPIB 10 yrs 13.0% -0.20

-0.150.150.050.05

Sectors Buy Sell Total Ind. Bank Insurance MF Others Total

LIPI (USDmn)FIPI (USDmn)

Monday, April 8, 2019

Azerbaijan willing to give oil, gas to Pakistan on deferred payment (News)

Federal Minister for Energy and Petroleum Ghulam Sarwar Khan has said Pakistan is aggressively exploring oil and gas sources both offshore…read more

Govt announces crackdown as dollars vanish in open market (Dawn)

Signs of panic are now appearing in foreign currency markets as the dollar touched Rs148 in open trading on Friday and the information minister announced that “a full-fledged operation against dollar hoarding and speculative currency trade” is going to be launched…read more

Auto financing shrinks sharply amid rising interest rates (Dawn)

Amid rising interest rates and the declining value of rupee, the share of financing in total auto sales has decreased to 20 per cent from the 30-35pc in the last fourteen months…read more

SNGPL seeks Rs 723.37 per/mmbtu increase in normal business (BR)

Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) has sought an increase of Rs 723.37 per mmbtu in normal business (including LPG), Rs 80.84 per mmbtu in LNG business relating to diversion of RLNG to domestic consumers in winter of financial year 2018-19, and determination of Rs 111.32 per mmbtu in LNG business…read more

DRAP suspends production of 31 pharmaceuticals on overpricing

The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (Drap) has suspended production of 31 manufacturers on unauthorised increase in maximum retail prices of 143 medicines, a statement said on Saturday…read more

PSDP 2018-19: Government releases Rs 417.38 billion against budgeted Rs 675 billion (BR)

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government has released Rs 417.38 billion (61.83 percent) including Rs 160.3 billion foreign aid for different development projects under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2018-19 against the total budgeted allocation of Rs 675 billion…read more

Cement 0.3 (0.5) (0.3) 0.4 0.2 (0.7) 0.5 (0.1) 0.3

Banks 1.2 (1.8) (0.6) (0.4) 0.1 0.9 0.1 (0.1) 0.6

Fertilizer 0.1 (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 0.1 0.1 (0.3) 0.1 0.2

Consumer 0.3 (0.3) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.2 (0.0)

E&P 0.8 (0.3) 0.5 (0.4) 0.2 (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.5)

OMC 0.1 (0.2) (0.1) 0.4 0.1 (0.3) 0.1 (0.3) 0.1

IPP 0.1 (0.2) (0.1) 0.1 0.0 (0.2) 0.0 0.2 0.1

Tech. 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.2) 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 (0.1)

Textile 0.1 (0.1) (0.0) 0.2 0.1 (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0

Others 2.3 (2.3) (0.1) (0.2) 0.4 (0.3) 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total 5.4 (6.1) (0.8) (0.0) 1.2 (0.9) 0.5 (0.1) 0.8

End Month Data Units Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

T-Bills - 3M % 5.99 6.21 6.26 6.26 6.24 6.26 6.76 7.28 7.73 7.73 8.73 8.73 10.19

T-Bills - 6M % 6.01 5.98 6.23 6.23 6.35 6.35 6.85 7.38 7.84 7.84 8.84 8.84 10.28

T-Bills - 12M % 5.92 6.00 6.28 6.28 6.25 6.38 6.9 7.53 8.05 8.05 9.05 9.05 10.42

PIB 10Y % 8.34 8.42 8.57 8.74 8.56 8.63 8.98 9.6 9.93 10.02 11.53 12.16 12.89

KIBOR 6M % 6.21 6.23 6.44 6.51 6.25 6.34 6.73 7.31 7.79 8.17 9.43 9.62 10.4

Discount rate % 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 9.0 9.0 10.5 10.5

Policy rate % 5.75 6.0 6.0 6.25 6.00 6.50 6.50 7.50 7.50 8.5 8.5 10 10

% 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 5.2 5.8 5.8 5.1 6.8 6.5 6.2

Core inflation % 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.8 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.6 7.7 8.00 8.20 8.3 8.4

Food inflation % 3.8 3.7 2.2 0.1 (0.20) 1.0 3.0 3.5 3.3 1.4 2.7 1.8 0.9

Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 1,977 1,971 1,902 2,231 2,133 2,144 1887 1,646 2,017 1,728 1,903 1,843 2,080

Import (PBS) US$ (mn)

4,910 5,607 4,797 5,280 5,066 5,814 5694 4,838 4,992 4,430 4,841 4,626 4,444

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

(2,933) (3,636) (2,895) (3,049) (2,933) (3,670) (3,807) (3,192) (2,975) (2,702) (2,938) (2,783) (2,364)

Export (SBP) 2,464 2,111 2,059 2,305 2,246 2,266 2,012 2,009 2087 1801 2063 1893 2003

Import (SBP) 5,140 4874 4,334 4,943 4,949 5,166 5,133 5,493 4,460 3,792 4,717 4,184 4,627

Trade Deficit (SBP) (2,676) (2,763) (2,275) (2,638) (2,703) (2,900) (3,121) (3,484) (2,373) (1,991) (2,654) (2,291) (2,624)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

1,724 1,639 1,672 1,773 1,651 1,771 1,594 1,929 2,037 1,452 2,000 1,609 1,690

Current Account US$ (mn)

(1,256) (1,617) (1,241) (1,237) (1,947) (2,011) (1,976) (2,200) (600) (909) (1,218) (1,209) (1,660)

Deposits PkR (bn) 12,362 12,002 11,933 12,571 12,277 12,258 13,063 12,551 12,692 13,032 12,666 13,079 13,354

Advances PkR (bn) 6,530 6,556 6,629 6,812 6,839 7,046 7,362 7,336 7,426 7,492 7,534 7,750 7,888

Investments PkR (bn) 8,542 7,637 8,127 6,853 7,784 6,733 8,179 7,785 6,893 6,677 5,525 5,459 7,583

W. A. lending rate % 7.74 7.72 7.99 7.60 7.75 7.74 7.85 8.08 8.27 8.33 8.87 9.07 9.66

W. A. deposit rate % 2.89 2.89 2.92 2.95 2.91 2.92 3.00 3.15 3.44 3.51 3.84 3.92 4.46

Spread rate % 4.85 4.83 5.07 4.65 4.84 4.83 4.85 4.93 4.83 4.82 5.02 5.14 5.20

Tax collection PkR (mn) 416,068 273,497 262,464 370,224 294,666 352,501 567,132 251,087 247,364 333,804 - -

Direct taxes PkR (mn) 188,476 95,706 89,631 152,524 95,011 125,791 314,441 94,017 71,499 133,023 n.a n.a n.a

Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 227,592 177,791 172,833 217,700 199,655 226,710 252,691 157,070 175,865 200,781 n.a n.a n.a

Fx Reserves US$ (mn)

20,154 18,957 18,317 17,796 17,540 15,977 16,407 16,891 16,370 14,921 14,016 14,011 13,753

Economy SnapshotEconomy Snapshot

Public Finance

Currency

Banking Sector

External Indicators

Inflation

Headline inflation

Monetary Rates

PkR/USD 109.13 110.53 110.55 111.73 115.60 115.61 119.57 124.83 124.08 124.29 130.72 134.03 138.74

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Interbank

Source: SBP, PBS

Morning News Lahore Chamber of Commerce & Industry