LBL Comet-Mu2E Workshop January 24, 2009 Mu-e Conversion Backgrounds and Sensitivities– from...
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Transcript of LBL Comet-Mu2E Workshop January 24, 2009 Mu-e Conversion Backgrounds and Sensitivities– from...
LBL Comet-Mu2E Workshop January 24, 2009
Mu-e Conversion Backgrounds and Sensitivities– from proposal
to measurement
Doug Bryman
"Wishing does not make a poor man rich." Arabian Proverb
LFV Experiments Limit Reached
Goal; (Result/Goal)
“Comments”
Badertscher et al. 1982 µ->e
7x10-11
TRIUMF TPC
Ahmad et al. 1987
µ->e
4.6x10-12 2x10-12
(2)
Data collection took 5x as long as originally guessed
(1 month!)
SINDRUM II
Bertl et al. 2006
µ->e
7x10-13
Au
4.3x10-12
(6x10-13)
Ti
“10-14” (1987)->
3x10-14(1993)
“engineering”
Ti (>60)
Flux lower by 10; pion suppression device didn’t work; unanticipated high electron bkg.; shorter running.
MEGA
Ahmed et al. 2002
µ->eγ
1.2x10-11 0.9->4x10-13
“engineering”
(133-35)
Death by a thousand blows to acceptance
N.B.: Every one of these experiments was carefully reviewed by experts!
MEGA at LAMPF
SINDRUM II PSI
• Proposed 108 stops; (muE1) beam was only 107
• Designed “PMC” to kill pions; simulated; swamped unexpectedly by electrons; solenoid took years longer to obtain.
• Eventually went to very low momentum (50 MeV/c) killing pions by range; pion background persisted.
• Final result obtained in a couple of months; group had dispersed….” could have done better”….
MEG PSI• Proposal goal (1999): <2x10-14
in 2.2x107 s.• Engineering…lost factor 17• Current goal (2008): <1.7x10-13
in 4.5x107 s.
“ Goals “ 2008 (1999)
Measured
Simulated
Gamma energy % 4.5 – 5.0 (1.4)
Gamma Timing (ns) 0.15 (0.1)
Gamma Position (mm) 4.5 – 9.0 (1.7)
Gamma Efficiency (%) >40 (70)
e+ Timing (ns) 0.1
e+ Momentum (%) 0.8 (0.3)
e+ Angle (mrad)10.5 (10)
e+ Efficiency (%) 65 (95)
Muon decay Point (mm) 2.1
Muon Rate (108/s) 0.3 (1.0)
Running Time (weeks) 100 (49)
Single Event Sens (10-
13)0.5 (0.094)
Accidental Rate (10-13) 0.1 – 0.3
# Accidental Events 0.2 - 0.5
90% CL Limit (10-13) 1.7 (0.2)
COMET?----------------Mu2E?
0.047
0.07x0.6=0.42
0.41
0.34
s.e.s: 2.3 x 10-17
*
*
***Kaons?
Sensitivity/Background Estimate Questions
• What are the uncertainties and risk factors in the background, acceptance estimates?
• What processes are missing?
• How are the backgrounds to be measured?
• How is a blind analysis to be done?
• What would make a believable signal?
• Optimistic resolutions (DIO) – contamination?• Optimistic acceptances – extra losses due to
cuts• Missing background sources due to high energy
production… e.g. more electrons (from where?); previous experiments used low energy sources.
• Combinations of cosmics and beam-related effects?
• Fill in your own….
How to lose a factor 10 (100)?
Advance Background-related Measurements?
• Cosmic rays – could be done in a test setup• Extinction – could be done in advance• Radiative pion capture -> 100 MeV electrons?• Neutrons? Pbars?• …
The bifurcation method uses two uncorrelated high-rejection cuts to estimate each background
A
B
C
DCU
T1
CUT2
The signal region A is not directly examined
Measure B:Invert CUT1 and apply CUT2
Measure C+D:Invert CUT2 Estimate A:
A = BC/D
Measure D:Invert CUT2 andapply CUT1
Background estimate = A!
Digression: E787/E949 Blind Analysis and Background Estimate Methodology
Background estimates are performed using data different from those used to develop
cuts
EntireData Set
CutDevelopment
BackgroundEstimates
1/3 2/3
Compare background
estimates
•Estimate and then measure the backgrounds near the signal region to verify estimates.
Conclusions/Recommendations
• Perform risk analysis to get best estimates of ultimate sensitivity
• Devise measurements to test assumptions
• Make Conservative claims – then do better!
The 2005 HEPAP review of MECO stated that a minimal goal of achieving sensitivity significantly less 10-15 than was essential to justify the considerable effort and expense.