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Transcript of Laying the Groundwork: An Emerging Markets Overview CMAG 42 at Cisco in San Jose March 5, 2009 Joe...
Laying the Groundwork:An Emerging Markets Overview
CMAG 42 at Cisco in San JoseMarch 5, 2009
Joe Gatto and Jeff [email protected] | [email protected]
International Planning & Researchwww.iprcorp.com
Agenda and Summary of Highlights
• Market Characteristics- Market characteristics and economic measures can be used to prioritize/rank the huge
number of emerging markets. The BRIC are near the top, but others surface as well
• Economic Updates- BRIC countries are all being impacted by the worldwide recession, but there are key
differences that need to be comprehended in their assessment; these differences can be tracked with timely data available from a variety of country/international sources
• Early Warning System - An early warning system “dashboard” with a common look and feel can help to
summarize and make digestible the vast amount of country-level tracking data for those who need to know but don't have the time to take the deep dive
- Beyond a “headlights” capability, statistical modeling of the relationship between IT spending and underlying economic conditions leads to better business planning
• Appendix
What Makes an Emerging Market?
Sufficient SizeLevel of
Economic Development
EmergingMarket
GrowthRate
?
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000
Emerging Markets at a Glance: GDP
GDP per Capita (2008)
20
00
-20
08
C
AG
R
China$2.4T
Size of circle reflects size of economy in 2000 $USD at market rates
Argentina
SaudiArabia
Libya
CzechRepublic
Chile
Mexico
Venezuela
HungaryPoland
MalaysiaSouthAfrica
Brazil
Turkey
Russia
Peru
India
Thailand
Romania
ColombiaAlgeria
IranEgypt
Philippines
Ukraine
Indonesia
Pakistan
N = NigeriaB = Bangladesh
Vietnam
N
B
Source: IPR Worldwide Economics/Demographics Database
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
VenezuelaNigeriaRussia
PakistanI ran
BangladeshAlgeria
PeruIndonesia
UkraineLibya
PhilippinesMexico
ColombiaVietnam
ArgentinaChinaBrazil
RomaniaEgypt
ThailandTurkey
IndiaSouth AfricaSaudi Arabia
PolandMalaysiaHungary
Czech RepublicChile
Governance Indicators: Rule of LawPercentile Rank
Source: World Bank Governance Indicators
Based on 77 individual variables from 26 sources. Measures perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality ofcontract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
ColombiaBrazil
South AfricaChilePeru
ArgentinaMexico
MalaysiaPhilippines
ChinaVenezuela
NigeriaTurkey
I ranThailand
RussiaVietnam
AlgeriaPolandEgypt
I ndonesiaI ndia
BangladeshRomaniaPakistanUkraine
HungaryCzech Rep.
Gini Coefficients
Source: World Bank
Measure of income inequality. Coefficient of zero means that everyone in the country has exactly the same income; coefficient of 100 means that one person has all the income, and no one else in the country has any.
Cell Phone Subscribers vs. GDP
Source: International Telecommunications Union, IPR Worldwide Economics/Demographics Database
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000
GDP per Capita (2007)
Ce
ll P
ho
ne
Su
bs
cri
be
rs 1
00
In
ha
bit
an
ts (
20
07
)
Argentina
SaudiArabia
Libya
CzechRepublic
Chile
Mexico
Venezuela
HungaryPoland
MalaysiaSouthAfrica
Brazil
Turkey
Russia
Peru
Thailand
Romania
Colombia
Algeria
IranEgypt
China
Philippines
Ukraine
Indonesia
IndiaVietnam
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Internet Users vs. GDP
Sources: International Telecommunications Union, IPR Worldwide Economics/Demographics Database
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000
GDP per Capita (2007)
Inte
rne
t U
se
rs p
er
10
0 I
nh
ab
ita
nts
(2
00
7)
ArgentinaSaudi Arabia
Libya
Czech Republic
Chile
MexicoVenezuela
HungaryPoland
Malaysia
South Africa
Brazil
TurkeyRussia
Peru
Thailand
Romania
Colombia
Algeria
Iran
EgyptChina
Philippines
Ukraine
Indonesia
India
Vietnam
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Emerging Markets ScorecardRank in Parentheses
WeightedRank
Weight 100%China 2,390 (1) 1,796 (22) 10.1% (1) 42 (14) 45 (19) 41 (24) 16 (20) 1India 811 (2) 707 (26) 7.2% (3) 56 (8) 33 (7) 20 (30) 7 (25) 2Russia 434 (5) 3,083 (14) 6.6% (5) 17 (28) 40 (13) 115 (4) 21 (15) 3Saudi Arabia 260 (8) 9,217 (2) 3.8% (27) 59 (6) NA 115 (3) 25 (11) 4Argentina 391 (6) 9,622 (1) 4.1% (26) 39 (15) 53 (23) 102 (8) 24 (12) 5Turkey 288 (7) 4,005 (13) 4.6% (19) 53 (9) 44 (16) 83 (13) 20 (19) 6Brazil 785 (3) 4,089 (12) 3.5% (28) 43 (13) 58 (27) 63 (19) 26 (10) 7Poland 231 (10) 5,992 (9) 4.1% (25) 59 (5) 35 (10) 109 (6) 42 (4) 8Mexico 701 (4) 6,375 (6) 2.4% (30) 34 (18) 50 (22) 64 (18) 21 (14) 9Thailand 181 (12) 2,759 (16) 5.0% (15) 53 (10) 42 (14) 80 (15) 21 (16) 10Malaysia 135 (16) 5,343 (10) 5.1% (14) 65 (4) 49 (21) 88 (9) 60 (1) 11Indonesia 247 (9) 1,041 (25) 5.2% (13) 27 (22) 34 (8) 35 (26) 6 (28) 12South Africa 184 (11) 4,204 (11) 4.1% (24) 57 (7) 58 (26) 87 (10) 8 (24) 13Venezuela 167 (13) 6,313 (7) 4.5% (21) 3 (30) 44 (18) 86 (11) 21 (17) 14Iran 147 (15) 2,224 (20) 5.7% (11) 21 (26) 43 (15) 42 (23) 32 (7) 15Czech Republic 86 (21) 8,436 (4) 4.5% (22) 74 (2) 25 (1) 128 (1) 43 (3) 16Egypt 151 (14) 1,848 (21) 4.8% (17) 52 (11) 34 (9) 40 (25) 11 (21) 17Chile 106 (20) 6,436 (5) 4.3% (23) 88 (1) 57 (25) 84 (12) 33 (6) 18Colombia 120 (17) 2,673 (18) 4.6% (18) 36 (17) 59 (28) 74 (16) 26 (9) 19Pakistan 112 (18) 667 (27) 5.2% (12) 20 (27) 31 (4) 48 (22) 11 (22) 20Peru 84 (22) 2,871 (15) 5.8% (9) 27 (23) 55 (24) 55 (21) 27 (8) 21Romania 60 (27) 2,708 (17) 6.3% (8) 50 (12) 31 (5) 107 (7) 56 (2) 22Philippines 111 (19) 1,201 (23) 4.9% (16) 34 (19) 46 (20) 59 (20) 6 (27) 23Libya 56 (28) 9,063 (3) 6.5% (7) 32 (20) NA 73 (17) 5 (29) 24Ukraine 54 (30) 1,180 (24) 7.1% (4) 28 (21) 28 (3) 120 (2) 22 (13) 25Hungary 63 (26) 6,308 (8) 3.5% (29) 73 (3) 27 (2) 110 (5) 42 (5) 26Algeria 78 (23) 2,314 (19) 4.5% (20) 26 (24) 35 (11) 81 (14) 10 (23) 27Nigeria 77 (24) 555 (29) 6.6% (6) 9 (29) 44 (17) 27 (27) 7 (26) 28Vietnam 56 (29) 647 (28) 7.5% (2) 39 (16) 37 (12) 27 (28) 20 (18) 29Bangladesh 74 (25) 480 (30) 5.8% (10) 25 (25) 32 (6) 22 (29) 0 (30) 30
Rule of Law5%
Cell PhoneSubscribers
5%
Gini
5%Coefficient
InternetUsage
5%
2000-08CAGR
50% 10% 20%
GDP $B(2008) GDP/Capita
Stock Market Index Performance52-Week Change as of March 1, 2009: Local Currency
-46%
-51% -51%-53% -53%
-57%-58%
-72%
-45% -43% -45%
-40% -41%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%China
SaudiArabiaThailand ArgentinaIndiaTurkeyBrazilMexico RussiaPoland
Sources: bloomberg.com (Saudi Arabia - TASI), MSCI Barra (Others)
U.S.WesternEurope Japan
Anatomy of a MeltdownChanges in Forecast of 2009 GDP Growth between September 2008 and February 2009
0.8% 1.0%
1.8%
-2.6%
1.1%
-0.7%
0.0%
-1.5%
-0.3%
-1.6%
5.1%
6.7%
-2.0%-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
China SaudiArabia
ThailandArgentina
India
Turkey
Brazil
MexicoRussia
Poland
Sources: IMF, IPR
U.S.
September to OctoberOctober to NovemberNovember to DecemberDecember to JanuaryJanuary to February
September Forecast 9.4%9.4%
7.4%
6.3%5.8%
5.1%
4.1% 4.0% 4.0%3.6%
2.1%
0.4%
February Forecast 6.7%
ForecastReductions
0.6% 0.8%
WesternEurope Japan
Spotlight on…ChinaGDP, CPI and Industrial Production Expressed as Change vs. Year-Ago
6%
8%
10%
12%
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q084%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Quarterly History
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
GDP Annual Forecast
Source: IPR WW Economics/Demographics Database
0%
5%
10%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Consumer Price Index
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Industrial Production
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
U.S.
Hong Kong
Japan
S. Korea
Largest Export MarketsExports = 35% of GDP (2008)
Source: CIA World Factbook (2008)
Spotlight on…IndiaGDP, CPI and Industrial Production Expressed as Change vs. Year-Ago
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q084%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Quarterly History
Source :India National Informatics Centre
GDP Annual Forecast
Source: IPR WW Economics/Demographics Database
5%
10%
15%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Consumer Price Index
Source: CSO- India
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Industrial Production
Source: CSO - India
U.S.
China
U.A.E.
U.K.
Largest Export MarketsExports = 14% of GDP (2008)
Source: CIA World Factbook (2008)
Spotlight on…RussiaGDP, CPI and Industrial Production Expressed as Change vs. Year-Ago
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 -2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Quarterly History
Source: Russian Federation on Statistics
GDP Annual Forecast
Source: IPR WW Economics/Demographics Database
7.5%
12.5%
17.5%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Consumer Price Index
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Industrial Production
Largest Export MarketsExports = 27% of GDP (2008)
Source: CIA World Factbook (2008)
Source: Russian Federation on Statistics Source: Russian Federation on Statistics
Italy
Germany
Turkey
Netherlands
Spotlight on…BrazilGDP, CPI and Industrial Production Expressed as Change vs. Year-Ago
3%
5%
7%
9%
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q080%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Quarterly History
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
GDP Annual Forecast
Source: IPR WW Economics/Demographics Database
0%
5%
10%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Consumer Price Index
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Industrial Production
U.S.
China
Netherlands
Argentina
Largest Export MarketsExports = 12% of GDP (2008)
Source: CIA World Factbook (2008)
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
Spotlight on…United StatesGDP, CPI and Industrial Production Expressed as Change vs. Year-Ago
-2%
0%
2%
4%
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Quarterly History
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
GDP Annual Forecast
Source: IPR WW Economics/Demographics Database
-2.5%
2.5%
7.5%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Consumer Price Index
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Industrial Production
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
Canada
Mexico
China
J apan
Largest Export MarketsExports = 10% of GDP (2008)
Source: CIA World Factbook (2008)
Decomposing Changes in U.S. GDP
• GDP increased by $109B in 1H08 but declined by $219B in 2H08 – a swing of $328B• Net exports accounted for almost all the gain in GDP for 1H08, but were practically flat in 2H08• Contraction in economy for 2H08 due to collapse in final private domestic demand (primarily
personal consumption and non-residential investment), which dropped even more than GDP• Residential investment was actually less of a drag in 2H08 (-$37B) than it was in 1H08 (-$42B)• Involuntary inventory buildup contributed to economic output in 2H08 (after being a drag in
1H08) but as this unwinds in 1H09 it will further depress GDP
Change vs. Prior Period ($B) 1H08 2H08 Delta Personal Consumption 43 -171 -214+ Non-Residential Investment 17 -88 -105+ Residential Investment -42 -37 5+ State/Local Government 7 0 -7= Final Private Domestic Demand 25 -297 -322+ Federal Government 23 39 16+ Change in Inventories -43 31 74+ Net Exports 103 8 -95= GDP 109 -219 -328Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Chained 2000 Dollars)
Early Warning SystemsFor Mature and Emerging Markets
• Early Warning Systems (EWS) provide “market alerts” and “headlights” capabilities that anticipate likely changes in market growth dynamics and enable responses “ahead of the curve”
• EWS provide surveillance and monitoring of key high-frequency economic and market-related leading indicators expected to most accurately reflect the market landscape in the short-term
• EWS focus on identifying and tracking the key high-frequency economic and market-related series determined to be the most robust indicators of future growth in both mature and emerging markets
– One advantage of leveraging the high-frequency economic and market-related leading indicators is that they are generally publicly available and published well before data sources which cover the technology markets
• Once a subset of key indicators is identified, predictive modeling techniques can be employed to quantify the relationships between the high-frequency leading indicators and historical market growth to assess the likely impacts of changes in the indicators on market growth over the next several quarters
• Monthly EWS “market alerts” reports provide country-specific “dashboards” that focus on the most important high-frequency leading indicators so that the growth dynamics of the relevant markets can be visually monitored and evaluated
• EWS also generally enable “headlights” capabilities that identify the likely implications of recent movements in the leading indicators on existing market growth forecasts
US Industrial ProductionFederal Reserve Bank, monthly
Dec 2008 Jan 2009 IT Implication-8.2% -10.0%
Y/Y% Change Y/Y% Change
United StatesComputers & Peripheral Equipment Investment
US BEA, quarterly
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1998 | Jan
1998 | Jul
1999 | Jan
1999 | Jul
2000 | Jan
2000 | Jul
2001 | Jan
2001 | Jul
2002 | Jan
2002 | Jul
2003 | Jan
2003 | Jul
2004 | Jan
2004 | Jul
2005 | Jan
2005 | Jul
2006 | Jan
2006 | Jul
2007 | Jan
2007 | Jul
2008 | Jan
2008 | Jul
2009 | Jan
2009 | Jul
US Industrial Production,Y/ Y % chg USComputers & Peripheral Equipment Investment, Y/ Y % chg
US Industrial Production year-to-year growth ppears to be a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in US Computers & Peripheral Equipment Investment. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared to Computers & Peripheral Equipment growth two quarters ahead.
IndustrialProduction continued to slow in January, shrinking at a rate of -10.0% year-over-year, following a -8.2% contraction in December. This latest sharp decline marks the 11th consecutive
month of negative year-to-year growth in the indicator, suggesting the likelihood of strongly decelerating Computers & Peripheral Equipmentgrowth thru at least the first half of 2009.
Series DescriptionUS Industrial Production refers to the goods produced in mining (including oil extraction), manufacturing, and production of electricity, gas and water (ISIC Categories C, D, and E, Sectors 10 to 40) in the US. The Index is published by the Federal Reserve Bank on a monthly basis.
EWS Market Alerts
Country Dashboard: US Computers & Peripheral Equipment Investment
EWS Market Alerts
Country Dashboard: US Computers & Peripheral Equipment Investment
US Purchasing Managers Index, Manuf.Institute for Supply Management (ISM), monthly
Dec 2008 Jan 2009 IT Implication32.9 35.6
Index Level Index Level
United StatesComputers & Peripheral Equipment Investment
US BEA, quarterly
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1998 | Jan
1998 | Jul
1999 | Jan
1999 | Jul
2000 | Jan
2000 | Jul
2001 | Jan
2001 | Jul
2002 | Jan
2002 | Jul
2003 | Jan
2003 | Jul
2004 | Jan
2004 | Jul
2005 | Jan
2005 | Jul
2006 | Jan
2006 | Jul
2007 | Jan
2007 | Jul
2008 | Jan
2008 | Jul
2009 | Jan
2009 | Jul
US Purchasing Managers Index Level US Computers & Peripheral Equipment Investment, Y/ Y % chg
The US Purchasing Managers Index appears to be a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in US Computers & Peripheral Equipment Investment. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared to Computers & Peripherals Equipment growth two quarters ahead.
The Purchasing Managers Index rose just under three points to a levelof 35.6 in January, marking the first upward movement in six months. However, since a level of 50 is the threshold for whether the sector is expanding or contracting, a reading in the mid-30s indicates the manufacturing economy is contracting significantly. This
continued weakness suggests the likelihood of strongly decelerating US Computers & Peripheral Equipment growth thru the first half of 2009. However, if the trend in the Index continues to improve, it could be signaling the start of a recovery in US Computers & Peripheral Equipment growth in 3Q09.
Series DescriptionAn indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector, the US Purchasing ManagersIndex (PMI) is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) produces the PMI on a monthly basis. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
US Headlights: Predictive Model ForecastsComputers & Peripheral Equipment
-35-30-25-20-15-10
-505
101520253035
19
95
Q1
19
95
Q3
19
96
Q1
19
96
Q3
19
97
Q1
19
97
Q3
19
98
Q1
19
98
Q3
19
99
Q1
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q1
20
00
Q3
20
01
Q1
20
01
Q3
20
02
Q1
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q1
20
03
Q3
20
04
Q1
20
04
Q3
20
05
Q1
20
05
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
(Y/Y % Growth)
US Computers & Peripheral Equipment Forecasts 1997q1 - 2010q1
BEA Computers & Peripheral Equipment Pessimistic Forecast Optimistic Forecast
Brazil Real Gross Domestic Product IndexIBGE, quarterly
2Q 2008 3Q 2008 IT Implication7.0% 7.1%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
Brazil
Office Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod IndexIBGE, monthly, SA
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2003 | Jan
2003 | Apr
2003 | Jul
2003 | Oct
2004 | Jan
2004 | Apr
2004 | Jul
2004 | Oct
2005 | Jan
2005 | Apr
2005 | Jul
2005 | Oct
2006 | Jan
2006 | Apr
2006 | Jul
2006 | Oct
2007 | Jan
2007 | Apr
2007 | Jul
2007 | Oct
2008 | Jan
2008 | Apr
2008 | Jul
2008 | Oct
2009 | Jan
2009 | Apr
2009 | Jul
2009 | Oct
Office Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod Index, Y/ Y % chgBrazil Index of RealGross Deomestic Product, Y/ Y % chg
Brazil Real Gross Domestic Product Index year-to-yeargrowth is a moderate positive indicator of year-to-year growth in Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared one quarter ahead.
The Y/Y growth of the Brazil Gross DomesticProduct Index was 7.1% in the third quarter in 2008, following 7.0% in the second quarter. The growth rate of the index was reported at 7.0% in the first quarter. The high momentum in the GDP
growth has gradually cooled down in the second half of 2008. The recent movements of the indicator suggest a stable growth trend Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment Industrial Production thru 4Q08.
Series DescriptionBrazil Real Gross Domestic Product Index measures Brazil's national income and output. This seasonally adjusted series is reported by IBGE on a quarterly basis. The indicator is set to 100 in the base year of 1995.
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment
Although GDP is an important indicator of growth, for Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment the relationship is only moderate
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment
Brazil Composite Leading IndicatorOECD, monthly
Nov 2008 Dec 2008 IT Implication0.6% -1.0%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
Brazil
IBGE, monthly, SA
Office Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod Index
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2003 | Jan
2003 | Apr
2003 | Jul
2003 | Oct
2004 | Jan
2004 | Apr
2004 | Jul
2004 | Oct
2005 | Jan
2005 | Apr
2005 | Jul
2005 | Oct
2006 | Jan
2006 | Apr
2006 | Jul
2006 | Oct
2007 | Jan
2007 | Apr
2007 | Jul
2007 | Oct
2008 | Jan
2008 | Apr
2008 | Jul
2008 | Oct
2009 | Jan
2009 | Apr
2009 | Jul
2009 | Oct
Office Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod Index, Y/ Y % chgBrazil CompositeLeading Indicator, Y/ Y % chg
Brazil Composite Leading Indicator year-to-year growth is a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared one to two quarters ahead.
The Y/Y growth of the Brazil Composite Leading Indicator fell to -1.0% in December after growing at 0.6% in November. The indicator peaked at 5.1% in June 2008, followed by 5.0% in July, and slid to 4.5% in August. The growth rate was 3.5% in September
before it decelerated further to 2.1% in October. The collective movements of the indicator suggest strongly decelerating growth for Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment Industrial Production thru at least 2Q09.
Series DescriptionComposite Leading Indicators (CLIs) are designed to predict cyclical turning points in aggregate economic activity. The OECD CLIs published monthly are comprised of a set of component series from a wide range of economic indicators.
This indicator signaled a significant slowdown in Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment growth was on the horizon in the third quarter of 2008
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment
US Total Retail Trade Volume Index OECD, monthly, SA
Nov 2008 Dec 2008 IT Implication-6.1% -8.0%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
BrazilOffice Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod Index
IBGE, monthly, SA
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2003 | Jan
2003 | Apr
2003 | Jul
2003 | Oct
2004 | Jan
2004 | Apr
2004 | Jul
2004 | Oct
2005 | Jan
2005 | Apr
2005 | Jul
2005 | Oct
2006 | Jan
2006 | Apr
2006 | Jul
2006 | Oct
2007 | Jan
2007 | Apr
2007 | Jul
2007 | Oct
2008 | Jan
2008 | Apr
2008 | Jul
2008 | Oct
2009 | Jan
2009 | Apr
2009 | Jul
2009 | Oct
Office Machinery & Data Processing EqptInd Prod Index, Y/ Y % chgUS Total Retail Trade Volume Index, Y/ Y % chg
US Total Retail Trade Volume Index year-to-year growth is a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment Industrial Production. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared to one to two quarters ahead.
The Y/Y growth of US Total Retail Trade Volume Index reported a sharp deceleration of -8.0% in December from -6.1% in November. The growth rate of the index has been in negative territory for 11 months, since February 2008, and has been accelerating in the negative direction over the past 5 months. The growth rate in August was -
1.5%, before falling to -3.4% in September ,and then exhibiting another decline to -4.2% in October. The recent movements of the indicator suggest strongly decelerating growth for Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing EquipmentIndustrial Production thru at least 2Q09.
Series DescriptionThe US Total Retail Trade Volume Index comprises all retail spending, and is deflated by OECD using an appropriate consumer price index. The indicator is reported by OECD on a monthly basis. The index has a value of 100 in 2000.
For the BRIC countries, US and other G-7 series are often better indicators of technology market growth than country-specific ones
Brazil Real Value-Added Tax IndexIBGE, quarterly, SA
2Q 2008 3Q 2008 IT Implication6.8% 6.5%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
BrazilOffice Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod Index
IBGE, monthly, SA
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0% -40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2003 | Jan
2003 | Apr
2003 | Jul
2003 | Oct
2004 | Jan
2004 | Apr
2004 | Jul
2004 | Oct
2005 | Jan
2005 | Apr
2005 | Jul
2005 | Oct
2006 | Jan
2006 | Apr
2006 | Jul
2006 | Oct
2007 | Jan
2007 | Apr
2007 | Jul
2007 | Oct
2008 | Jan
2008 | Apr
2008 | Jul
2008 | Oct
2009 | Jan
2009 | Apr
2009 | Jul
2009 | Oct
Brazil Real VAT Index, Y/ Y % chg Office Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod Index, Y/ Y % chg
The Brazil Real Value-Added Tax Index in the third quarter of 2008 reported a Y/Y growth rate of 6.5%, slightly lowered by 0.3 points from the growth rate of 6.8% in 2Q08. Earlier in the year, the growth rate posted 6.5% in 1Q08, following 5.4% in 4Q07. The
inverse relationship between the series and Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment Industrial Production suggests the likelihood of moderately decelerating for Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment through 2Q09.
Series DescriptionThe Real Value-Added Tax (VAT) Index is seasonally adjusted with a base of 100 in year 1995. IBGE publlishes the series quarterly. It measures the value-added taxes imposed on producers collected by the government. It is also recorded as a deductible in producers' prices resulting in negative impact on industrial production.
Brazil Real Value-Added Tax Index year-to-year growth is a strong negative indicator of year-to-year growth in Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment Industrial Production. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared two to three quarters ahead.
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment
Indicators that have shown a strong negative relationship to technology growth are also valuable to monitor
US Industrial Production Index Federal Reserve Bank, monthly, SA
Dec 2008 Jan 2009 IT Implication-7.8% -9.6%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
Brazil
IBGE, monthly, SA
Office Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod Index
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-11%
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2003 | Jan
2003 | Apr
2003 | Jul
2003 | Oct
2004 | Jan
2004 | Apr
2004 | Jul
2004 | Oct
2005 | Jan
2005 | Apr
2005 | Jul
2005 | Oct
2006 | Jan
2006 | Apr
2006 | Jul
2006 | Oct
2007 | Jan
2007 | Apr
2007 | Jul
2007 | Oct
2008 | Jan
2008 | Apr
2008 | Jul
2008 | Oct
2009 | Jan
2009 | Apr
2009 | Jul
2009 | Oct
Office Machinery & Data Processing Eqpt Ind Prod Index, Y/ Y % chgUS Industrial Production Index, Y/ Y % chg
US Industrial Production Index year-to-year growth is a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared one to two quarters ahead.
The Y/Y growth of the US Industrial Production Index continued to show accelerating rates of decline in December 2008 and January 2009, falling -7.8% and -9.6%, respectively. The recent declines followed a drop of -5.5% in November. The recent growth trend of the US
Industrial Production Index suggests strongly decelerating growth for Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment Industrial Production is likely thru 3Q09.
Series DescriptionIndustrial Production refers to the goods produced in mining (including oil extraction), manufacturing, and production of electricity, gas and water (ISIC Categories C, D, and E, Sectors 10 to 40). The series shown is published by the Federal Reserve Bank on a monthly basis and is seasonally adjusted.
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment
For the BRIC countries, US and other G-7 series are often better indicators of technology market growth than country-specific ones
Brazil Headlights: Predictive Model ForecastsOffice Machinery & Data Processing Equipment
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
Brazil Office Machinery & Data Processing Equipment2003Q1-2010Q1
BR_IND_PRO_OFFICE_Y Pessimistic View Optimistic View
(Y/Y Growth)
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: China High-Technology Product Exports
China Statistics Information Service Center, monthly
Dec 2008 Jan 2009 IT Implication-2.4% -4.3%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
China Customs Statistics, monthly, SA
ChinaHigh-Technology Product ExportsChina Wholesale & Retail Sales-Consumer Goods
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
06 | | | 07 | | | 08 | | | 09 | | |
High-Technology Product Exports Y/ Y % chgChina Wholesale& RetailSales-Consumer Goods, Y/ Y % chg
China Wholesale and Retail Sales-Consumer Goods year-to-year growth is a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in China High-Technology Product Exports. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared two quarters ahead.
The Y/Y growth of the Wholesale and Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in China plunged to -4.3% in January 2009, marking the fourth month of negative growth. Starting in the second half of 2008, the Y/Y growth of the indicator gradually decelerated, reporting Y/Y growth of 1.5% in July, 0.4% in August, and 0.3% in September. However, the growth rates fell into the
negative territory in October, when the index reported a slowdown in growth to -0.4%, and then in November the growth dropped again to -1.5%. The collective movements of the indicator suggest strongly decelerating growth for China High-Technology Product Exports thru the first half of 2009, at least.
Series DescriptionThe China Statistics Information and Service Center provides the Wholesale and Retail Sales-Consumer Goods index on a monthly basis. This index covers all Wholesale and Retail Sales of Consumer Goods, which are goods or services that are used without further transformation in production. The series is indexed at 100.
As far back as early in the second quarter of 2008 , this indicator foreshadowed that a significant slowdown in China High-Technology Product Exports was on the horizon
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: China High-Technology Product Exports
China Energy & Electricity ProductionOECD, monthly
Oct 2008 Nov 2008 IT Implication-3.0% -7.8%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
ChinaHigh-Technology Product Exports
China Customs Statistics, monthly, SA
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
06 | | | 07 | | | 08 | | | 09 | | |
High-Technology Product Exports Y/ Y % chgChina Energy & Electricity Production, Y/ Y % chg
China Energy & Electricity Production is a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in China High-Technology Product Exports. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared two quarters ahead.
The growth of Energy & Electricity Production in China plunged to -7.8% in November 2008, following negative growth of -3.0% in October. The indicator reported a Y/Y growth rate of 8.1% in June and 9.6% in July earlier last year. However, the growth started to
decelerate to 5.7% in August, and then to 4.8% in September. The collective movements of the growth trend of this indicator suggest strongly decelerating growth for China High-Technology Product Exports thru the second quarter 0f 2009, at least.
Series DescriptionOECD publishes the Energy & Electricity Prodution series in total thousand Gigawatt hours (GWh) on a monthly basis.
This indicator foreshadowed that a significant slowdown in China High-Technology Product Exports was on the horizon in the second quarter of 2008
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: China High-Technology Product Exports
US Retail Sales excluding Autos & GasolineUS Census Bureau, monthly
Nov 2008 Dec 2008 IT Implication-0.4% -1.4%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
China Customs Statistics, monthly, SA
High-Technology Product ExportsChina
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
06 | | | 07 | | | 08 | | | 09 | | |
High-Technology Product Exports Y/ Y % chgUS RetailSales exc. Autos & Gas, Y/ Y % chg
US Retail Sales excluding Autos & Gas Index year-to-year growth is a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in China High-Technology Prodcuct Exports. The relationship appears to ibe strongest when compared one to two quarters ahead.
US Retail Sales excluding Autos & Gas exhibited a year-over-year growth rate of -1.4% in December 2008, following negative Y/Y growth of -0.4% in November. The series reached Y/Y growth of 3.8% in June, and it slid to 3.1% in July. The growth of the indicator continued to decelerate to 2.5% in
August, 1.7% in September and 0.5% in October. Combined with the recent drastic decline in the growth rates, the indicator is suggesting strongly decelerating for China High-Technology Product Exports thru the first half of 2009.
Series DescriptionRetail Sales, or sales of nondurable and durable goods consumer goods, are reported by the US Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census between the 11th and 15th of each month after being compiled based on surveys of a wide range of establishments across the country. The focus is on the Retail Sales & Food Services excluding Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers and Gasoline Stations figure, as this series enables an assessment of the underlying spending habits of consumers by excluding the highly volatile automobile sales and gasoline price components.
For the BRIC countries, US and other G-7 series are often better indicators of technology market growth than country-specific ones
China Headlights: Predictive Model ForecastsHigh-Technology Product Exports
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: India Total Desktop PC Shipments
Reserve Bank of India, Monthly
Oct 2008 Nov 2008 IT Implication13.2% -0.9%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
IndiaTotal Desktop PC Shipments
MAIT, quarterlyIndia Aggregate Demand Deposits:Money and Banking Commercial Banks
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
2002 | Dec
2003 | Mar
2003 | Jun
2003 | Sep
2003 | Dec
2004 | Mar
2004 | Jun
2004 | Sep
2004 | Dec
2005 | Mar
2005 | Jun
2005 | Sep
2005 | Dec
2006 | Mar
2006 | Jun
2006 | Sep
2006 | Dec
2007 | Mar
2007 | Jun
2007 | Sep
2007 | Dec
2008 | Mar
2008 | Jun
2008 | Sep
2008 | Dec
2009 | Mar
2009 | Jun
2009 | Sep
2009 | Dec
TotalDesktop PC Shipments, Y/ Y % chgIndia Aggregate Demand Deposits, Y/ Y % chg
India Aggregate Demand Deposits year-to-year growth is a moderate-to-strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in India Total Desktop PC Shipments. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared two to three quarters ahead.
After the India Aggregate Demand Deposits year-to-year growth rate reached a record-high rate of 51.2% in January 2008, it has been exhibiting a decelerating trend due to the worsening global financial crisis. After decelerating to 13.2% in October 2008, the indicator recorded a negative growth rate of -0.9% in November 2008, the
lowest rate over the past ten years. The rapiddecline in the growth trend, and the recentnegative growth rate, are now suggesting strongly decelerating growth for India Total Desktop PC Shipments starting in 4Q08 and continuing into 3Q09.
Series DescriptionIndia Aggregate Demand Deposits of Money and Banking Commercial Banks is provided monthly by Reserve Bank of India. Since demand deposits constitute one of the most important segments of the nation's money supply, the financial community closely monitors their size.
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: India Total Desktop PC Shipments
For the BRIC countries, US and other G-7 series are often better indicators of technology market growth than country-specific ones
US Profits from Current ProductionUS BEA, quarterly
3Q 2008 4Q 2008 IT Implication-9.2% -8.3%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
India
MAIT, quarterly
Total Desktop PC Shipments
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2003 | Q1
2003 | Q2
2003 | Q3
2003 | Q4
2004 | Q1
2004 | Q2
2004 | Q3
2004 | Q4
2005 | Q1
2005 | Q2
2005 | Q3
2005 | Q4
2006 | Q1
2006 | Q2
2006 | Q3
2006 | Q4
2007 | Q1
2007 | Q2
2007 | Q3
2007 | Q4
2008 | Q1
2008 | Q2
2008 | Q3
2008 | Q4
2009 | Q1
2009 | Q2
2009 | Q3
2009 | Q4
TotalDesktop PC Shipments, Y/ Y % chgUS Profits from Current Production, Y/ Y % chg
US Profits from Current Production year-to-year growth is a moderate-to-strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in India Total Desktop PC Shipments. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared two to three quarters ahead.
In the first quarter of 2007, US Corporate Profits year-to-year growth dropped sharply, and fell into negative territory to -1.0% from 6.9% in 4Q06, and has now exhibited negative growth for 8 consecutive quarters. In 2Q08, the indicator decelerated by 6.8 points from -1.5% in 1Q08 to -8.3%, followed by another deceleration to -9.2%
in 3Q08, which was the lowest rate since 2001 Q3. Although it slightly accelerated to -8.3% in 4Q08, the negative year-to-year growth rates and decelerating growth trend now suggest strongly decelerating growth for India Desktop PC Shipments starting in 1Q09 thru at least 3Q09.
Series DescriptionUS Profits from Current Production (called “Corporate Profits with IVA and CCAdj”) is provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on a quarterly basis. This indicator is a measure of income earned by corporations from current production before tax liability. Also, it excludes financing flows and capital gains and losses.
India Headlights: Predictive Model ForecastTotal Desktop PC Shipments
-15-10-505
1015202530354045(Y/Y % Growth) India Total Desktop PC Shipments
Headlights Forecast
MAIT_DT PC Predictive Model
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Russia Total Information & Communications Technology Spending
IFO World Economic Survey, quarterly
4Q 2008 1Q 2009 IT Implication2.60 2.10
INDEX LEVEL INDEX LEVEL
RussiaRussia Economic Situation Over Next 6 Months Index Total Information & Communications Technology
Spending WITSA , yearly
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1997 | Q1
1997 | Q3
1998 | Q1
1998 | Q3
1999 | Q1
1999 | Q3
2000 | Q1
2000 | Q3
2001 | Q1
2001 | Q3
2002 | Q1
2002 | Q3
2003 | Q1
2003 | Q3
2004 | Q1
2004 | Q3
2005 | Q1
2005 | Q3
2006 | Q1
2006 | Q3
2007 | Q1
2007 | Q3
2008 | Q1
2008 | Q3
2009 | Q1
2009 | Q3
ICT SpendingY/ Y % chgRussia Economic Situation Over Next 6 Months, Index level Graphis scaled to reflect the Russian Rouble Crisis
The Russia Economi Situation Over the Next Six Months Index is a moderate-to-strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in Russia Total ICT spending. The relationship appears to ibe strongest when compared unlagged or six months ahead.
The IFO World Economic Survey's Index of the Economic Situation Over the Next Six Months in Russia has been in steady decline since 3Q07. Over the last two quarters the index has plummeted to the lowest levels observed since the economic meltdown following the collapse of the communist system in the early 1990's. In the first quarter of 2009 the index declined to reach a level of 2.10, after falling
precipitously to 2.60 in 4Q08 from a value of 5.6 in 3Q08. By contrast, the lowest level reached during the Rouble crisis in 1998 was 2.30. The severity of the downward trajectory points toward strongly decelerating IT growth, which is likely to continue thru most of 2009.
Series DescriptionThe German based Instiut Fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (IFO) provides a quarterly index score based on a survey for economic expectations over the next six months. The survey is administered to 1000 econmists from international and national organizations worldwide on current economic developments in their respective countries. For this index surveys pretaining to Russia are included. The index is based on a 9 point scale where a range of 5 to 9 points indicated a positive economic outlook, and a score of 1 to 5 indicate a negative trend.
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Russia Total Information & Communications Technology Spending
For Russia, EMU and Euro Area series are often better indicators of technology market growth than country-specific ones
EMU, Total Retail Trade VolumeEuroStat, monthly
Nov 2008 Dec 2008 IT Implication-1.8% -1.7%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
Russia
WITSA , yearly
Total Information & Communications Technology Spending
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1998 | Jan
1998 |
Apr
1998 | Jul
1998 |
Oct
1999 | Jan
1999 |
Apr
1999 | Jul
1999 |
Oct
2000 | Jan
2000 |
Apr
2000 | Jul
2000 |
Oct
2001 | Jan
2001 |
Apr
2001 | Jul
2001 |
Oct
2002 | Jan
2002 |
Apr
2002 | Jul
2002 |
Oct
2003 | Jan
2003 |
Apr
2003 | Jul
2003 |
Oct
2004 | Jan
2004 |
Apr
2004 | Jul
2004 |
Oct
2005 | Jan
2005 |
Apr
2005 | Jul
2005 |
Oct
2006 | Jan
2006 |
Apr
2006 | Jul
2006 |
Oct
2007 | Jan
2007 |
Apr
2007 | Jul
2007 |
Oct
2008 | Jan
2008 |
Apr
2008 | Jul
2008 |
Oct
2009 | Jan
2009 |
Apr
ICT Spending Y/ Y % chgEMU TotalRetail Trade Volume, Y/ Y % chg 3MMA Graphis scaled to reflect the Russian Rouble Crisis
EMU Total Retail Trade Volume year-to-year growth is a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in RussiaInformation & Communications Technology Spending.
The 3MMA rate of the annual growth of Retail Trade in the European Monetary Union has been in almost uninterrupted decline since 3Q07. The negative growth territory was reached at the start of 2008 and the latest numbers are the lowest level observed in the last ten years. This well-pronounced steep
negative growth trajectory points toward strongly decelerating Total ICT Spending in Russia, which will likely continue through the end of 2009.
Series DescriptionThis EuroStat series measures the total retail trade by volume for European Monetary Union (EMU) countries. The series is seasonally adjusted, and available monthly.
Russia Headlights: Predictive Model ForecastsTotal Information & Communications Technology Spending
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(Y/Y % Growth)
Russia - Total ICT Spending2002-2010
WITSA TOTAL ICT MODEL 1 MODEL 2
Appendices
• Supplemental Market Characteristics
• Supplemental EWS Dashboards
Employment Mix by Industry (2008)
47%
31%25% 22% 22%
18% 17% 16%9%
10%12%
15%
19%
14% 18% 20%
17%13%
6%
10%
5%
5% 5%7%
12%
9% 8% 21%
22%
22%28% 18%
18%
21%
19% 24%
5%
7%
6%10%
8%
8%9%
4%
7%15%
10%9%
10%16%
16%
18%
7% 9% 7%12% 11% 10% 14% 17% 17%
32%
17%
59% 55%
7%
5%5%
4% 4%
3%
17%
5%
9%
4%3%
3%
India China Thailand Turkey Brazil Mexico Poland Russia Argentina SaudiArabia
U.S.Source: IPR Worldwide Economics/Demographics Database
Ag / Mining /Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation /Comm / Utilities
Wholesale /Retail Trade
Fin / Real Est / Ins / Bus Svcs
Personal / Social Svcs
Gov / Ed
499M 777M 37M 24M 90M 44M 15M 70M 15M 7M 154M Employment
Business Employment by Enterprise Size (2008)
81% 80% 78% 75% 75% 73%63%
54%
39%
7% 7%11% 11% 13% 15% 14% 15%
23%
21%
19%
5% 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% 12% 12% 14%24%
43%
87%88%
India China Brazil Turkey Mexico Thailand SaudiArabia
Argentina Poland Russia U.S.
Source: IPR Worldwide Economics/Demographics Database
1-99
100-999
1000+
21% 24% 41% 34% 34% 24% 42% 42% 44% 42% 60% % White Collar
FX Trends: U.S. Dollars per Currency UnitChange from August 2008 to February 2009 – Monthly Averages
-4%
-13% -13%
-29%-30% -30%
-32%
-40%-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%China
SaudiArabia Thailand Argentina India Turkey Brazil Mexico Russia Poland
Source: oanda.com
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: China High-Technology Product Exports
Japan Composite Leading IndicatorOECD, monthly
Nov 2008 Dec 2008 IT Implication-5.2% -6.9%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
ChinaHigh-Technology Product Exports
China Customs Statistics, monthly, SA
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
06 | | | 07 | | | 08 | | | 09 | | |
High-Technology Product ExportsY/ Y % chgJapanComposite Leading Indicator, Y/ Y % chg
The Japan Composite Leading Indicator exhibited -6.9% Y/Y growth in December, following -5.2% in November. The growth rate of the indicator has been in negative territory for 20 months starting with May 2007. Earlier this year, the growth rate was -0.9% in June and July, and dropped to -1.3% in August. The deceleration
continued and the growth rate slowed further down to -2.2% in September while it was -3.6% in October. The collective movements and the prolonged months of negative growth suggest strongly decelerating growth of China High-Technology Product Exports through at least the second quarter of 2009,.
Series DescriptionComposite Leading Indicators (CLIs) are designed to predict cyclical turning points in aggregate economic activity. The OECD publishes CLIs monthly and they are comprised of a set of component series from a wide range of economic indicators.
Japan Composite Leading Indicator year-to-year growth is a moderate positive indicator of year-to-year growth in China High-Technology Product Exports. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared two quarters ahead.
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: India Total Desktop PC Shipments
India International Liquidity IMF International Financial Statistics, monthly
Oct 2008 Nov 2008 IT Implication0.5% -3.4%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
IndiaTotal Desktop PC Shipments
MAIT, quarterly
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2002 | Dec
2003 | Mar
2003 | Jun
2003 | Sep
2003 | Dec
2004 | Mar
2004 | Jun
2004 | Sep
2004 | Dec
2005 | Mar
2005 | Jun
2005 | Sep
2005 | Dec
2006 | Mar
2006 | Jun
2006 | Sep
2006 | Dec
2007 | Mar
2007 | Jun
2007 | Sep
2007 | Dec
2008 | Mar
2008 | Jun
2008 | Sep
2008 | Dec
2009 | Mar
2009 | Jun
2009 | Sep
2009 | Dec
TotalDesktop PC Shipments, Y/ Y % chgIndia International Liquidity, Y/ Y % chg
India International Liquidity year-to-year growth is a moderate-to-strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in India Total Desktop PC Shipments. The relationship appears to be strongest when compared two quarters ahead.
Since April 2008, the India International Liquidity year-to-year growth rate has been declining, initially from 44.8% to 26.0% in August 2008. After a consecutive four-month deceleration, it dropped sharply by 10.5 points to 15.5% in September 2008, and again by 15 points to 0.5% in October 2008. Thereafter, in November 2008, the growth rate decelerated into negative
territory -3.4%, which is the lowest rate since August 1998. The rapid decline in the growth trend, and the recent negative growth rate, are now suggesting strongly decelerating growth for India Total Desktop PC Shipments starting in 4Q08 thru at least 2Q09.
Series DescriptionIndia International Liquidity is provided monthly by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). After Breton Woods and the advent of the dollar-gold exchange standard, liquidity came to mean access to dollars, either held as reserves or as credit lines, or the SDR system maintained by the International Monetary Fund.
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Russia Total Information & Communications Technology Spending
IMF, monthly
Oct 2008 Nov 2008 IT Implication14.3% 4.6%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
Russia Total Information & Communications Technology
Spending WITSA , yearly
Russia International Liquidity, Excluding Gold
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1998 | Jan
1998 | Jun
1998 | Nov
1999 | Apr
1999 | Sep
2000 | Feb
2000 | Jul
2000 | Dec
2001 | May
2001 | Oct
2002 | Mar
2002 | Aug
2003 | Jan
2003 | Jun
2003 | Nov
2004 | Apr
2004 | Sep
2005 | Feb
2005 | Jul
2005 | Dec
2006 | May
2006 | Oct
2007 | Mar
2007 | Aug
2008 | Jan
2008 | Jun
2008 | Nov
2009 | Apr
ICT Spending Y/ Y % chgRussia International Liquidity, Y/ Y % chg
Russia International Liquidity year-to-year growth is a strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in RussiaInformation & Communications Technology Spending.
The Y/Y growth in International Lquidity has been in general decline in Russia since mid 2006. While the decline has not been as pronounced as other indicators it is significant as the rate of growth has slowed to its lowest rate since the end of the Russian Rouble crisis. The future growth of Internatioinal
Liquidity will depend in large part on a healthly demand for oil. As a result of the global financial crisis, and the deceleration in the world economy, International Liquidity is likely to worsen through 2009 suggesting strongly decelerating growth for Russia ICT Spending in 2009.
Series DescriptionThe IMF Intrenational Financial Statistic series measures total foreign reserves excluding gold in Russia on on monthly basis in the IMF measure of SDRS., which represents a basket of currencies including the dollar, Japanese yen, the sterling pound, and the Euro.
Graphis scaled to reflect the Russian Rouble Crisis
EWS Market Alerts Country Dashboard: Russia Total Information & Communications Technology Spending
Euro Area ExportsEuroStat, monthly
Oct 2008 Nov 2008 IT Implication0.2% -6.6%
Y/Y % Chg Y/Y % Chg
Russia
WITSA , yearly
Total Information & Communications Technology Spending
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35%
-10%
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30%
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ICT Spending Y/ Y % chgEuro AreaExports, Y/ Y % chg 3MMA
EuroArea exports year-to-year growth is a moderate-to-strong positive indicator of year-to-year growth in RussiaInformation & Communications Technology spending.
The year-to-year growth of Euro Area Exports has been in general decline since 2006. Though the negative trend has been interrupted by short-term upward corrections on a couple of occasions during that period, the 3MMA rate of growth has decelerated from the peak of 12.2% recorded in 4Q06 down to -0.7% in November 2008. This general downward trajectory ,and especially the
dramatic deceleration to negtive growth of -6.6% in the month of November, suggests the build-up of negative pressures for IT growth in Russia. Thisdeccelerations is likely to worsen through 2009 given the economic outlook for the Euro Area countries, suggesting strongly decelerating growth for Russia ICT Spending for most of 2009.
Series DescriptionThis Eurostat monthly series measures the seasonally adjusted Exports from Euro Area (EA13) countries to non EA13 countries in millions of Euros. The Euro Area (EA12) consists of 12 Member States up to 31 December 2006: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. From 1 January 2007 the euro area (EA13) also includes Slovenia.
For Russia, EMU and Euro Area series are often better indicators of technology market growth than country-specific ones