Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment Trends International Labour Organisation
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Transcript of Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment Trends International Labour Organisation
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Topic 3: Methods to address data gaps for the monitoring of the target on full, decent and
productive employment
Lawrence Jeff Johnson
Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation
Geneva, Switzerland
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Global Unemployment, 2006
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Unemployment Rates: by Region, 2006
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
World DevelopedEconomies
andEuropean
Union
Central andEasternEurope
(non-EU)and CIS
East Asia South EastAsia and
the Pacific
South Asia LatinAmericaand the
Caribbean
Middle Eastand North
Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
Youth Female Male Total
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
New Target 1bis has 3 specific dimensions:
Full Employment Productive Employment Decent Employment
No Single Labour Market Indicator exists today that would address all three dimensions of the target or meet the specified requirements
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Indicators for Target 1b
Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex
Vulnerable employment
The share of working poor (US$1 a day) in total employment
Labour productivity
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Employment-to-population ratios
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
World DevelopedEconomies
andEuropean
Union
Central andEastern
Europe (non-EU) and CIS
East Asia South EastAsia and the
Pacific
South Asia LatinAmerica and
theCaribbean
Middle Eastand North
Africa
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Em
plo
ym
en
t-to
-po
pu
lati
on
rati
os
Total Male Female Youth
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
WORLD DevelopedEconomies& European
Union
Central &South
EasternEurope
(non-EU) &CIS
East Asia South EastAsia & the
Pacific
South Asia LatinAmerica &
theCaribbean
Middle East sub-SaharanAfrica
North Africa
1996
2006
Vulnerable Employment Shares
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Employment and the Share of Working Poor 1996-2006
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
(Billi
ons)
60.0%
60.4%
60.8%
61.2%
61.6%
62.0%
62.4%
62.8%
63.2%
63.6%
64.0%
above US$2US$2 Working Poor a day US$1 Working Poor a day Employment-to-population ratio
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Global Share of Working Poorin Total Employment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Sh
are
of
wo
rkin
g p
oo
r (%
)
Rate of progress neededto meet $2 a day goal
$2 a day working poverty(estimate)
$2 a day working poverty(projection)
Rate of progress neededto meet $1 a day goal
$1 a day working poverty(estimate)
$1 a day working poverty(projection)
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Share of working poor living below US$1 a day
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Central &South-EasternEurope
(non-EU) &CIS
East Asia South-EastAsia & the
Pacific
South Asia LatinAmerica &
theCaribbean
NorthAfrica
Sub-SaharanAfrica
MiddleEast
Per
cen
t of t
ota
l em
plo
ymen
t
1996
2006
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Labour Productivity
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
WORLD DevelopedEconomies
&European
Union
Central &South-EasternEurope
(non-EU) &CIS
East Asia South-EastAsia & the
Pacific
South Asia LatinAmerica &
theCaribbean
NorthAfrica
Sub-SaharanAfrica
MiddleEastO
utp
ut
pe
r w
ork
er
(co
ns
tan
t U
S$
20
00
at
PP
P)
19962006
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Criteria for Indicators Set by the Friends of the Chair :
The indicator and related metadata need to be well established in the statistical community
To the extent possible, the indicator should already be part of the regular data collection and compilation programmes in countries
Available data and geographical coverage should allow for regional/sub-regional aggregation and trends analysis (at least two points in time)
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Criteria (cont’d):
There is a responsible agency for the production of the indicator and for undertaking the related analysis
The indicator is recommended by a well established and recognized peer review mechanism with representatives from both the international and national statistical communities
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Sources of information for constructing global estimates and trends?
• National sources– Labour Offices– Central
Statistical Offices
– Universities– Etc.
• ILO sources– KILM– LMIL– Regional
Offices– Specialists
within the ILO– Etc.
• Other sources– World Bank– IMF– OECD– WTO– Regional
sources (ADB)– Etc.
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Challenges in the production of world and regional estimates
• The biggest challenge in the production of aggregate estimates is missing data
• To address the problem the ILO has designed, and actively maintains, three economic models to produce estimates of labour market indicators in the countries and years for which no real data exists
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
The Trends Models
• The Trends Labour Force Model– Country-level and world and regional labour force estimates
• The Global Employment Trends Model– Estimates missing labour market indicators based on available national
and regional macroeconomic information (GDP, population, recent conflicts, historical developments)
– Corrects for sample selection bias
– Estimates – disaggregated by age and sex – of unemployment, employment, employment by sector and status, employment elasticities and labour productivity.
• The Working Poverty Model– Estimates and projects working poor numbers, based on available
macroeconomic data
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Techniques to impute missing values
• Each of these models uses multivariate regression techniques to impute missing values at the country level.
• The first step in each model is to assemble every known piece of information (estimates from national surveys) for each indicator.
Note that only data that are national in coverage and comparable across countries and over time are used as inputs.
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Imputations of missing values follows two procedures
First Step:• A panel data set of more than 15 years is assembled.• If data are missing for only some years, information
from complete years is used to gap fill.
Second Step:• When data for all years are missing imputation is done
by using a similar procedure but with the ratios now computed at sub-regional or regional levels.
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Topic 3: Methods to address data gaps for the monitoring of the target on full, decent and
productive employment
Lawrence Jeff Johnson
Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation
Geneva, Switzerland