Laura David, Roselle Borja, UPMSI

ML San Diego-McGlone, Ph.D.

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptability Assessment Tools

Faith Varona, TAO-Pilipinas

Mike AtrigenioAdopted from L. David’s and P. Alino’s PresentationsUP Marine Science Institute

Climate Change and its effects on the integrity of the coastal system

The COASTAL ZONE

Is the interface between land, sea and atmosphere.

It contains natural systems that provide more than half of the global ecosystem goods (e.g., fish, oil, minerals) and services (e.g., natural protection from storms and tidal waves, recreation).

In addition, 14 of the world’s 17 largest megacities are located along coasts and most of them (11) are located in Asia’s fastest growing economies.

http://www.loicz.org/about_us/index.html.en

Dynamic Environment – Changing Space through Time :

Daily changes with TIDE

Seasonal changes with STORMS

Long-term changes- sediment transport

F. Siringan

So when we talk about Climate Change effects to the coasts we are talking about

• changes that affect the the frequency and intensity of these natural cycles or

• changes beyond these natural cycles

• More intense storms due to increased SST • Sea Level Rise

When we talk about Climate Change effects to the coasts we are also talking about Impacts to system function that have consequence to human activities:

The problem of climate change is the increase in frequency of bleaching events which do not allow for RECOVERY TIME

with just a 0.3C increase per decade the number of bleaching incidents are expected to almost double

Examples on impact to coastal resources: increase in ocean temperature leads to coral bleaching

Eroded reef/ low diversity/ less fishReef/ healthy cover/ more fish

Photos: Mike Atrigenio

Sutherst 2000

Heliopora

Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007

Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007

Response of reefs to sea level rise

Source: Lecture 8 of MS 230 course, Dr. F.P. Siringan

Loss of Reef Spells more coastal erosion

Aside from providing habitat for fish a Healthy Reef also acts as barrier

damaged by a strong typhoon leaving behind half concrete walls, floor slabs and a septic vault

Coastal Erosion leads to these familiar faces of climate related disasters

Other barriers such as a seawall can be put up to replace damaged reefs however, the current cost

estimate of building a seawall is about 39.2 M PhP/km

Biodiversity Zonation

Middle SeawardLandward

Laura T. David and M

aricar Samson

With seedlings being more susceptible

THUS ALSO AFFECTING BIODIVERSITY

All this will affect

www.openclimate.org

Adaptive Management through(MEMES) Motivating Ecosystem Management

Enhancement Strategy

Melbourne-Thomas et al. 2010

Maintaining Coastal IntegrityAnd Equitable Access

• Restoring coastal protection• Effective erosion buffers• Sustaining coastal integrity• Thresholds maintained within

acceptable limits vis-a-vis coastal erosion, sedimentation and thermal anomalies

• Organizing coastwatch • Reducing threats and sharing

costs• Enhancing equitable access• Disaster risk reduction

LUZON

South China Sea (B)

North Philippine Sea(A-1)

Sulu Sea (C)

VisayanSeas (D)

Celebes Sea (E)

SouthPhilippineSea(A-2)

SST and coral bleaching needs MPA network resiliency system

Maintaining coastal integrity amidst extreme weather events

Managing fisheries in ENSO & La Nina regimes

Reducing siltation from high precipitation

SLR zoning adjustments

Sustaining Resilient Knowledge-Based Communities

•The STEWARDS CAN Partnership: Seeing a Sea Change• Understanding and adapting wisely• Pressures, State and Responses• Baseline profiling & vulnerability assessment

397473 504

840

1,465

1,847

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Protecting 10% of the coral reefs in the Philippines would take 100 years: accelerate the area covered and improve its effectiveness

MPA Management Effectiveness Assessment Tool (MPA MEAT)

• Based on Philippine experience on MPAs

• Evidence-based• Use of thresholds, scores, and

management focus• Scores = amount of effort• Levels = important factors

towards effective management

Why Form MPA Networks?

Existing connectivity among ecosystems at various scales: benefits from natural networks need to be sustained

Single MPAs may not be enough for protection at larger scales.

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Sample Benefits Derived from Inter-LGU Collaboration

(Cost for CLE operations per square kilometer of municipal waters)

Individual LGUs enforcing their respective municipal waters

(effective enforcement up to 5 kilometers)

Inter-LGU Coastal Resource Management with joint enforcement

(effective enforcement up to 10 kilometers)

LGU 1

PhP 528.60

LGU 2

PhP 2,217.68

LGU 3

PhP 879.18

LGU 4

PhP 12,780.53

LGU 5

PhP 293.95

LGU 1

PhP 467.64

LGU 2

PhP 1,095.14

LGU 3

PhP 418.84

LGU 4

PhP 6,744.44

LGU 5

PhP 242.21

The Philippine Environmental Governance 2 Project

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May-07