Latino Decisions Press Breakfast 9-25-13
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Transcript of Latino Decisions Press Breakfast 9-25-13
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7/29/2019 Latino Decisions Press Breakfast 9-25-13
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CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THE RISING LATINO ELECTORATE
LATINO INFLUENCEINTHE 2012 ELECTION______________________________
Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D.
Gary M. Segura, Ph.D.
Co-founders, Latino Decisions
LD/AV Press Breakfast9/25/13
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7/29/2019 Latino Decisions Press Breakfast 9-25-13
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Le
Ca
alr
ouCo
Ar
(6.6%)
(7.8%)
(7.9%) (9.6%)
(11.5%) (13.9%)
(17.1%)(19.2%)
(21.9%)
2
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3
Latino Dec
Latino Decisions is a partnership of political scientistand Matt Barreto, and Pacific Market Research, a dgathering center headquartered in Renton, Washin
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Sylvia Manzano, Ph.D Gabriel Sanchez, Ph.D.
Director of Operations Director of Research
LATINO DECISIONS ANALYTI
Adrian Pantoja , Ph.D. Dave Damore, Ph.D. Blanca Flor Guillen-Woods
Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Senior Analyst, Director of Evaluatio
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The LD Difference
Culturally Competent Research;
Performed by Professional, Credentialed, andSocial Scientists;
Using an in-house call-center with fully bilingu
Augmented with a network of state-level exp
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Bias from Sampling design Every person in the universe of analysis should have an app
equal probability of having the opportunity to do the surve
Cell, Language, Clustering, List/RDD, Platform
Bias from Non-Response Do those who agree to do the survey and complete the inst
meaningfully from those who refuse? (Call-backs?)
Sample Size
Do you have enough Latino respondents to answer your que
Issues to Consider in Survey Accuracy
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40% of Latino citizens (25% RVs) foreign born (varies Spanish must be available at first-point of connection;
Low numbers of Spanish interviews yields a biased sam
Too assimilated, too native, higher income and highe
If the Spanish is under 25-30% nationally (varies by st
is very likely using call-backs and the sample is biase
Bilingual Interviewing
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Immigration reform a priorityWith all the different issues Congress must address, how important is immigration ref
78%
79%
78%
78%
78%
83%
58%
80%
73%
25%
1
Total
U.S. Born
Naturalized
English
Spanish
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Prior GOP Voter
Extremely/Very important Somewhat important Not too/at
Source: Latino Decisions/Ameri
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7/29/2019 Latino Decisions Press Breakfast 9-25-13
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Midterm Latino voter community tied to L
undocumented community
Do you know somebody who is anundocumented immigrant?
Relationship to undocimmigrants you
No
33
DK 2
Yes
65
Source: Latino Decisions/Amer
Family3
Oth2
Bothfamily
andfriends46
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Pathway to citizenship strongly preferred
Stronglysupport
38
Somewhatsupport
40
Somewhatoppose
12
Stronglyoppose
9
Increase border security, enforce existing immigration laws,
employee verify, pathway to citizenship, background check,study English, and pay fine.
Source: Latino Decisions/Amer
Pathwcitize
7
Legal status,no
citizenship12
Other/DK9
When it comes to legal status and immi
do you prefer: a pathway to citizenshipwithout the possibility for citizenship?
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House CIR vote matters to Latino voters
Source: Latino Decisions/Amer
Should putthe bill on
hold
32Allowyes/no votenow60
Don't know8
Speaker Boehner said he will not allow a vote unless a majority
of Republicans members support it. Should Boehner allow asimple yes or now vote now or, should he wait until a majority of
the Republicans agree to support the bill?
14
71
No vote
Total favorable to GOP Total Un
House GOP favorability if CIR bill with
citizenship vote not taken vs. if vote is ta
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Republican opening with Midterm v
62
52
36
44
Midterm Surge
Yes No
Thinking back over all the times you have voted, have
you ever voted for a Republican?
50
32
4
More favorabletowards GOP
Still opposeRepublicans
Alresuppor
Even though you may disagree on some iss
Republicans support CIR with path to citizemore likely to support GOP House candida
Source: Latino Decisions/Amer
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Steve King: impact on party evaluati
Congress does not have anobligation to resolve the issue of
the 11 million people who are
here illegally.
They came here on their own.
They came here to live in the
shadows. Theres no moral calling
for us to solve the problem they
created for themselves.They can easily solve it by just
returning to the country where
they came from.9 7
11
Much more favorableto GOP
Somewhat morefavorable to GOP
Somewhat lessfavorable to GOP
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Who gets the blame if CIR fails
If CIR is not passed this year, who will be mostto blame?
9
38
48
4
Democrats Republicans Both equally Don't know
F bili i f 2016
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Favorability ratings of 2016 conte
Source: Latino Decisions/Americas
Ne
+5
+3
+2
-12
-120
27
31
58
73
31
39
29
21
17
49
34
40
21
10
0 20 40 60 80 100
Ryan
J.Bush
Rubio
Biden
H.Clinton
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
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A Latino Veep on the ticket?
If the
Democratic
candidate
selects Julian
Castro as their
VP what effectwould it have on
a Dem vote?
Source: Latino Decisions/Americ
75%
in
Feb
Julian Castro on the ticket = + 62% more likely Dem
19% less likely Dem
Could this put Texas in play?
Texas Latinos: 65% more likely
Republicans: 25% more likely
Ever voted GOP: 52% more lik
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A Latino Veep on the ticket?
If the Republican
candidate
selects Ted Cruz
as their VP what
effect would it
have on a GOPvote?
Source: Latino Decisions/Ameri
75%
in
Feb
Ted Cruz on the ticket = -18 31% more likely GOP
49% less likely GOP
Most groups are net negative
Texas Latinos: net26 GOP
Middle class: net30 GOP
Independents: net5 GOP