Latin America’s push to bring Cuba back into the fold

Engaging Cuba:  Policy Options for the United States, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere

November 16, 20095th Floor Conference Room

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars9:15 AM – 12:30 PM

Professor Jorge HeineThe Centre for International Governance Innovation

www.cigionline.org

Cuba as an emblematic issue for Latin America and the

Caribbean

• Always been so, but especially so in the course of this decade• A post-Cold War environment• A more assertive region, with political stability and economic prosperity• Diversified diplomatic links and international markets• Cuban situation as a relic of an era of regional subordination

Latin American and Caribbean Embassies in

CubaLatin American and Caribbean Embassies in Cuba

Total -- 30 GuyanaAntigua and Barbuda HaitiArgentina HondurasBahamas JamaicaBarbados MexicoBelize NicaraguaBolivia PanamaBrazil ParaguayChile PeruColombia Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesCosta Rica Saint Kitts and NevisDominican Republic Saint LuciaDominica Trinidad and TobagoEcuador UruguayGranada VenezuelaGuatemala

Compiled using: Cuban Ministry of Foreign RelationsAvailable at: http://www.cubaminrex.cu/English/Embassies/Inicio.html

Cuban Embassies in Latin American and Caribbean

countriesCuban Embassies in Latin American and Caribbean Countries

Total -- 31 GuyanaAntigua and Barbuda HaitiArgentina HondurasBahamas JamaicaBarbados MexicoBelize NicaraguaBolivia PanamaBrazil ParaguayChile PeruColombia Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesDominican Republic Saint Kitts and NevisDominica Saint LuciaEcuador SalvadorGranada SurinameGuatemala Trinidad and Tobago

Uruguay

Venezuela

Compiled using: Cuban Ministry of Foreign RelationsAvailable at: http://www.cubaminrex.cu/English/Embassies/Inicio.html

An issue which generates unanimous support

• The Latin American and Caribbean Summit in Costa de Saipe on 16-17 Dec. 08• The invitation to Cuba to join the Rio Group• The letter signed by all heads of state and government asking the US to end the embargo on Cuba• The follow-up with many state visits to Havana

Visits to Cuba in 2009So far this year Cuba has received the visits from:- President Evo Morales, Bolivia- President Fernando Lugo, Paraguay- President Martin Torrijos, Panama- President Rafael Correa, Ecuador- President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina- President Michelle Bachelet, Chile- President Álvaro Colom, Guatemala- President Leonel Fernández, Dominican Republic- President Manuel Zelaya, Honduras- President Hugo Chávez, Venezuela- President Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua- Prime Minister David Thompson, Barbados- and several other Caribbean leaders.

** President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, Brazil, visited in 2008

Source: “Paraguayan president, tenth Latin leader to visit Cuba this year”, MercoPress, 2 June 2009Available at, http://en.mercopress.com/2009/06/02/paraguayan-president-tenth-latam-leader-to-visit-cuba-this-year

Latin American Engagement with Cuba

The OAS resolution in the San Pedro Sula meeting in

June 2009

• A major breakthrough in lifting the 1962 resolution that had suspended Cuba

Cuban Imports: Latin America and Caribbean

(in US$million)

Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Database. Available at, http://www.imfstatistics.org/dot/

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Venezuela 1188.85 1883.66 2359.98 2847.03 3742.28

Brazil 145.149 270.051 377.582 356.236 579.533

Mexico 194.596 243.754 213.857 208.512 339.754

Netherlands Antilles 46.416 53.034 65.546 81.342 92.865

Argentina 100.497 106.525 105.379 110.791 92.805

Chile 51.691 46.841 48.739 70.724 85.732

Dominican Republic 19.105 13.003 17.165 40.151 66.749

Colombia 36.046 70.057 53.435 55.56 65.813

Uruguay 9.661 37.044 45.783 56.817 64.866

Trinidad and Tobago 23.112 26.407 32.638 40.503 46.241

Cuban Exports: Latin America and Caribbean

(in US$million)

Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Database. Available at, http://www.imfstatistics.org/dot/

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Guyana 38.172 43.614 53.904 66.894 76.371Belize 36.508 41.713 51.555 63.979 73.043Venezuela 105.27 85.427 30.805 49.378 62.374Dominican Republic 24.376 27.992 30.331 27.145 59.991Mexico 21.158 20.3 43.403 15.649 53.403Brazil 45.309 38.877 31.595 88.79 48.054Panama 0.408 14.34 19.768 23.709 22.947Colombia 6.151 5.014 3.701 7.842 17.941Haiti 8.073 9.224 11.401 14.148 16.152Costa Rica 7.419 6.912 8.542 10.601 12.103Honduras 3.405 3.89 4.808 5.967 6.812Jamaica 3.446 3.52 1.826 15.212 5.934Chile 0.72 1.577 1.361 2.636 4.356Argentina 1.372 1.595 2.383 2.743 2.354Bolivia 0.332 1.24 1.532 1.902 2.171Ecuador 0.246 0.266 0.635 1.747 1.796Guatemala 2.158 3.318 2.401 2.567 1.653Nicaragua 0.546 0.304 0.889 5.699 1.466The Bahamas 0.371 0.424 0.524 0.651 0.743

Mexico’s historical position on the Cuban question

• Basic principles of Mexican foreign policy• Not an issue of Left or Right, but on how to conduct foreign relations• Stance of Government of President Felipe Calderón falls squarely in that position

Brazil’s and Chile’s strong commitment to “bringing

Cuba back in”

• President Lula visited Cuba twice in 2008, and hosted Costa de Saipe Summit• President Bachelet was the first Chilean president to visit Cuba in 37 years (Feb 09)

Jamaican Prime Minister Bruce Golding’s position on

Cuba

• Cubans’ sense of ownership of the Revolution• Need to respect that and not bet on stirring up further conflicts• Start talks between Washington and Havana, but without artificial deadlines or conditions

President Obama’s Latin American policy and the

Cuban question

• Despite a crowded agenda, some early signals of interest in the region• Lack of movement on trade• Mixed signals on Honduras• Policy toward Cuba as a litmus test